‘President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit; but he has left it in worse shape than he found it.’

10/31/2020

October 31, 2020

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style=""><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'The World Trump Made'</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'What Trump Gets Right About U.S. Foreign Policy'</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit; but he has left it in worse shape than he found it.'</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> Another long one</strong> trying to capture complicated arguments.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><br></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not long after President Trump</strong> was elected, I was invited to give a speech in Hong Kong on the likely direction of Trump administration foreign policy.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I said that, with Mr. Trump,</strong> my long-time agenda was on finally on the table: confronting China, reforming international organizations, and the like.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But that I thought it</strong> would be bungled in the execution.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have not been </strong>disappointed.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Since we’re nearing the end of Mr. Trump’s first term</strong> and the end of the presidential campaign, I thought we might take a break from China and try to assess how the current administration has managed U.S. foreign policy and more interestingly (for me anyway) how it has reshaped the world order.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because whoever</strong> will in the White House in January, he will be operating, as<em style="font-style: italic"> Foreign Affairs </em>puts it, in<strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The World That Trump Made.’</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue</strong> we have two critiques - one pro and one pretty con:</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What Trump Gets Right About U.S. Foreign Policy,’ </strong>which, as the title implies, explains why Trump foreign policy has been a success, and</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit, but he has left it in worse shape than he found it,’ </strong>an Economist briefing that takes a shot at being balanced but nonetheless comes to the conclusion stated in the title.</li></ol><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But we begin with ‘The World That Trump Made,’</strong> the theme of the September/October issue of <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em>.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As critical as I have been and am of Trump foreign policy,</strong> I found four of five of the lead essays so biased and downright polemical that I began rooting for Mr. Trump and trying to seek out his successes.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That bias is evident in the introductory essay to the issue </strong>where<strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong><em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em> editor, Gideon Rose, highlights points from those lead essays.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here </strong>are two:</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How will historians judge</strong> President Donald Trump’s handling of American foreign policy?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not kindly, </strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/history-which-past-prologue" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">writes Margaret MacMillan</a> in this issue’s lead package.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After nearly four years</strong> of turbulence, the country’s enemies are stronger, its friends are weaker, and the United States itself is increasingly isolated and prostrate.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/present-disruption" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard Haass notes</strong></a> that “Trump inherited an imperfect but valuable system and tried to repeal it without offering a substitute.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result, he claims, </strong>“is a United States and a world that are considerably worse off.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The one essay defending Mr. Trump’s foreign policy,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What Trump Gets Right About U.S. Foreign Policy’</strong> by Nadia Schadlow, Hudson Institute fellow and former Trump Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategy (and included below), is mischaracterized by saying:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Washington cannot simply return</strong> to the comfortable assumptions of the past,” <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-08-11/end-american-illusion" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">argues Nadia Schadlow</a>, a former deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Great-power competition</strong> is inevitable, and multilateral cooperation is for suckers.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Instead, Dr. Schadlow argues:</strong> ‘A new set of assumptions should underpin U.S. foreign policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Contrary to the optimistic predictions </strong>made in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, widespread political liberalization and the growth of transnational organizations have not tempered rivalries among countries.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Likewise, globalization and economic interdependence </strong>have not been unalloyed goods; often, they have generated unanticipated inequalities and vulnerabilities.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And although the proliferation of digital technologies</strong> has increased productivity and brought other benefits, it has also eroded the U.S. military’s advantages and posed challenges to democratic societies.’ </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given these new realities,</strong> Washington cannot simply return to the comfortable assumptions of the past.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And right</strong> she is.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As for Mr. Trump: ‘In a world of great-power competition,</strong> economic inequality, and dazzling technological capabilities, where ideologies as well as pathogens spread with viral ferocity, the stakes are too high and the consequences too dire to simply stick with what worked in the past and hope for the best.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump recognized this reality</strong> earlier than many in the U.S. foreign policy community.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump,</strong> who is not a product of the American foreign policy community, does not labor under these illusions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump has been a disrupter,</strong> and his policies, informed by his heterodox perspective, have set in motion a series of long-overdue corrections.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Okay, </strong>maybe less right here.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But in any case, a well-argued,</strong> if in my view flawed, assessment of the effectiveness of Mr. Trump’s ‘long-overdue corrections’ - one that deserves a proper and respectful intro by the editor.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> no friend of Trump foreign policy, in its long briefing, <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit, but he has left it in worse shape than he found it,’</strong> (a title which sums up my opinion better than I could), featured here in this issue, has a few good things to say:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite his alarming bluster</strong> Mr Trump has not so far turned out to be a bellicose president.’ Translation: no new wars.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Presidents from John F. Kennedy</strong> onwards have complained about America’s NATO allies failing to carry a fair share of the burden of defending themselves.’                                                <ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump</strong> has done so with particular force—and to significant effect.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is one of the more salutary of the shocks</strong> he has administered to the basic assumptions of foreign-policy wonks around the world.’</li></ul></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump’s brashness</strong> has not had all the dire consequences that critics predicted. Witness North Korea.’                                                <ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has been no subsequent crisis,</strong> and the de facto recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status has put to rest previous talk of pre-emptive military counter-proliferation strikes.’</li></ul></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the Middle East</strong> Mr Trump can claim bragging rights for the Abraham accords, a peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates since joined by Bahrain and, after some American arm-twisting, Sudan.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The area where Mr Trump</strong> has shaken things up most is in relations with China, the single biggest issue in American foreign policy.’                                                <ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'It was left to Mr Trump to challenge</strong> the idea that this was unstoppable.' (Full marks here.)</li></ul></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The article quotes Matt Pottinger,</strong> deputy national security adviser: “a lot is written about the sacred cows Mr Trump has gored, but less about the rabbits he’s pulled out of the hat.” </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Pottinger</strong> is not wrong, but he’s not right either.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On balance</strong> U.S. foreign policy has dined more on prime rib than on hasenpfeffer.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> And that</strong> will be the Trump legacy and the challenge for whoever is in the White House in January.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">1. The World Trump Made</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77MHB2?track_p_id=1D6pT2HW_wQXCF3HG5tNtOE" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/77MHB2?track_p_id=4NbjI6pT2HW_VxBFczWdiPh" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The World Trump Made</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/77MHB2?track_p_id=1s6pT2HW_SP6ngQsw3OXxxS" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/xi4razyrrJDzQUo3bX1nLzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="margin: 0 auto;display:block;width: 75%;border:none;height:auto;"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/xi4razyrrJDzQUo3bX1nLzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gideon Rose</strong> | Editor, Foreign Affairs</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “Trump inherited an imperfect but valuable system and tried to repeal it without offering a substitute.” </strong></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How will historians judge</strong> President Donald Trump’s handling of American foreign policy?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not kindly, </strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/history-which-past-prologue" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">writes Margaret MacMillan</a> in this issue’s lead package.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After nearly four years</strong> of turbulence, the country’s enemies are stronger, its friends are weaker, and the United States itself is increasingly isolated and prostrate.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/present-disruption" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard Haass notes</strong></a> that “Trump inherited an imperfect but valuable system and tried to repeal it without offering a substitute.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result, he claims, </strong>“is a United States and a world that are considerably worse off.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Dragging his party and the executive branch along,</strong> the president has reshaped national policy in his own image: focused on short-term advantage, obsessed with money, and uninterested in everything else.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His opponent has pledged</strong> to repudiate Trump’s approach if elected, embracing international cooperation and restoring American global leadership. But is that even possible now?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most of the world looks at Washington</strong> with horror and pity rather than admiration or respect, and the one thing many of Trump’s domestic supporters and critics agree on is there’s no going back.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Washington cannot simply return</strong> to the comfortable assumptions of the past,” <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-08-11/end-american-illusion" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">argues Nadia Schadlow</a>, a former deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Great-power competition</strong> is inevitable, and multilateral cooperation is for suckers.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-11/democratic-renewal" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ben Rhodes</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> who also served as a deputy national security adviser, but in the Obama administration, agrees that the liberal international order is defunct.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than try to revive it,</strong> he wants Washington to shape a new and better one by checking its privilege, avoiding hypocrisy, and attacking global inequality.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “America is not a lie;</strong> it is a disappointment,” the political scientist Samuel Huntington once wrote.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “But it can be a disappointment</strong> only because it is also a hope.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The challenge</strong> now is to keep that hope alive.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">2. What Trump Gets Right About U.S. Foreign Policy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7PWbVA?track_p_id=9xCFOxHTuO5zbcD8_uSNleW" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7PWbVA?track_p_id=btceF5H1iMyW5zbcD8_DAPD" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">What Trump Gets Right About U.S. Foreign Policy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7PWbVA?track_p_id=bbHyD2dggyXF5zbcD8_rUKW" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/HNHC2_gZuiA8_QmqogZ5GDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/HNHC2_gZuiA8_QmqogZ5GDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nadia Schadlow</strong> | Hudson Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A new set of assumptions should underpin U.S. foreign policy.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since the end of the Cold War,</strong> most U.S. policymakers have been beguiled by a set of illusions about the world order.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On critical issues,</strong> they have seen the world as they wish it were and not how it really is.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump,</strong> who is not a product of the American foreign policy community, does not labor under these illusions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump has been a disrupter,</strong> and his policies, informed by his heterodox perspective, have set in motion a series of long-overdue corrections.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many of these necessary adjustments</strong> have been misrepresented or misunderstood in today’s vitriolic, partisan debates.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the changes Trump</strong> has initiated will help ensure that the international order remains favorable to U.S. interests and values and to those of other free and open societies.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the administration’s first term</strong> draws to a close, Washington should take stock of the crumbling post–Cold War order and chart a path toward a more equitable and secure future.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No matter who is U.S. president</strong> come January, American policymakers will need to adopt new ideas about the country’s role in the world and new thinking about rivals such as China and Russia—states that have long manipulated the rules of the liberal international order to their own benefit.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A new set of assumptions</strong> should underpin U.S. foreign policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Contrary to the optimistic predictions </strong>made in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, widespread political liberalization and the growth of transnational organizations have not tempered rivalries among countries.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Likewise, globalization and economic interdependence </strong>have not been unalloyed goods; often, they have generated unanticipated inequalities and vulnerabilities.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And although the proliferation of digital technologies</strong> has increased productivity and brought other benefits, it has also eroded the U.S. military’s advantages and posed challenges to democratic societies.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given these new realities,</strong> Washington cannot simply return to the comfortable assumptions of the past.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world has moved beyond</strong> the “unipolar moment” of the post–Cold War period and into an age of interdependence and competition that calls for different policies and tools.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To properly navigate this new era,</strong> Washington must let go of old illusions, move past the myths of liberal internationalism, and reconsider its views about the nature of the world order.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7hgvpI?track_p_id=76qTesMk8msxAc_1IKBtYUY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7hgvpI?track_p_id=4zVUQ8msxAc_2142zBjhDVB" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Illusions</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nadia Schadlow</strong> | Hudson Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A ‘New World Order’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the twentieth century</strong> drew to a close, the increasing number of countries that were embracing democratic ideals inspired pride in the West and high hopes for the future.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A consensus formed</strong> that a convergence on liberal democracy would lead to a stable international political order - a <a href="https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/io/potusunga/207269.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">“new world order,” </a>a “Pax Universalis” founded on liberal values, democratic governance, and free markets.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This presumption of liberal convergence </strong>motivated the decision to allow China to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. As Clinton said at the time, such an opening would have “a profound impact on human rights and political liberty.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But </strong><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018/10/15/chinas-geopolitical-power-play/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China had no intention of converging </strong></a>with the West.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese Communist Party </strong>never intended to play by the West’s rules; it was determined to control markets rather than open them, and it did so by keeping its exchange rate artificially low, providing unfair advantages to state-owned enterprises, and erecting regulatory barriers against non-Chinese companies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While China and other actors </strong>subverted the liberal convergence overseas, economic globalization was failing to meet expectations at home.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Proponents of globalization</strong> claimed that in an economy lubricated by free trade, consumers would benefit from access to cheaper goods, lost manufacturing jobs would be replaced by better jobs in the growing service industry, foreign direct investment would flow to every sector, and companies everywhere would become more efficient and innovative.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the promise</strong> that globalization’s rising tide would lift all boats went unfulfilled: some rose to extreme heights, some stagnated, and others simply sank.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It turned out that liberal convergence</strong> was not a win-win: there were, in fact, winners and losers.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A second illusion</strong> that has entranced U.S. policymakers is the idea that Washington could depend on international organizations to help it confront major challenges and that “global governance” would emerge with the help of American leadership.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That view presumed</strong> that since other countries were progressing inexorably toward liberal democracy, they would share many of Washington’s goals and would play by Washington’s rules.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That belief tended</strong> to minimize the importance of national sovereignty and the fact that countries differ in how they organize their own communities.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even among democracies,</strong> there exists a high degree of variation when it comes to cultural, institutional, and political values.’ </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'At the same time,</strong> international institutions grew more expansive and ambitious.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although liberal internationalism</strong> encouraged interdependence and multilateralism, it also rested on a faith in Washington’s ability to indefinitely maintain the uncontested military superiority it enjoyed in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality, </strong>U.S. military dominance is now challenged in virtually every domain.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> is no longer able to operate freely in the traditional spheres of land, sea, and air, nor in newer ones such as outer space and cyberspace.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The spread of new technologies </strong>and weapon systems and the pursuit of asymmetric strategies by adversaries have limited the U.S. military’s ability to find and strike targets, supply and safeguard its forces abroad, freely navigate the seas, control sea lines of communication, and protect the homeland.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nothing</strong> is likely to reverse these trends.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite visions of a world</strong> in which no one could challenge American force, the era of U.S. military dominance proved to be relatively short.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Misplaced faith</strong> in the advantages of new technologies has not been confined to military affairs.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the digital revolution began,</strong> policymakers and business leaders were optimistic that these technologies would accelerate the spread of liberal democratic values—that “the age of information can become the age of liberation,” as President George H. W. Bush put it in 1991.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over time,</strong> however, it has become clear that the same technologies that connect and empower people can also imperil freedom and openness and limit the right to be left alone—all elements of a flourishing democracy.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7zrG9Q?track_p_id=5hf1aS9Diouc_1MzKxwlciP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7zrG9Q?track_p_id=09Diouc_yICshDUwknCk6H%40" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump: Foreign Policy Mythbuster</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nadia Schadlow</strong> | Hudson Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s departures from traditional ways of talking about and conducting foreign policy stem from an embrace of the uncomfortable truth that visions of benevolent globalization and peace-building liberal internationalism have failed to materialize, leaving in their place a world that is increasingly hostile to American values and interests.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump, in his campaign and presidency,</strong> has offered some correctives to the illusions of the past—often bluntly and sometimes inconsistently.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His departures from traditional ways</strong> of talking about and conducting foreign policy stem from an embrace of the uncomfortable truth that visions of benevolent globalization and peace-building liberal internationalism have failed to materialize, leaving in their place a world that is increasingly hostile to American values and interests.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump emphasizes the role of states</strong> in the international order, challenging an American tendency since the end of the Cold War to transfer power to international organizations.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has not meant</strong> unilaterally reducing the U.S. role in the world; rather, it has meant signaling respect for the sovereignty of others.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More broadly,</strong> the Trump administration has applied the principle of reciprocity to various international institutions and norms.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has meant urging other powers</strong> to take more responsibility for their own security and contribute more to the strength of the Western-led order.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s attention to burden sharing</strong> has “<a href="https://nato.usmission.gov/july-12-2018-press-conference-by-nato-secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg-at-the-conclusion-of-2018-nato-summit-in-brussels/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">made NATO stronger</a>,” according to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Between 2016 and 2018,</strong> defense spending by NATO members other than the United States increased by $43 billion, and Stoltenberg has predicted that by 2024, such spending will increase by another $400 billion.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In trade and commerce,</strong> reciprocity has meant raising the alarm, louder than in the past, about China’s unwillingness to open its market to U.S. products and services and Beijing’s unfair practices, such as forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Experts estimate that since 2013,</strong> the United States has suffered over $1.2 trillion in economic damage as a result of China’s egregious abuses.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s use of tariffs as a trade tactic</strong> has underscored his willingness to take risks.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Critics have decried the tariffs</strong> as radical departures from orthodoxy.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality,</strong> the use of retaliatory tariffs to demand reciprocity is an American tradition that dates back to the presidency of George Washington.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are also used by countries</strong> around the world to enforce WTO decisions or counteract unfair subsidies provided by other states.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s tariffs</strong> helped yield an initial agreement with China that, unlike any previous bilateral U.S.-Chinese agreement, includes meaningful commitments from Beijing to limit the theft of trade secrets, reduce forced technology transfers, and open Chinese markets to U.S. financial services and agricultural goods.’ </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ongoing negotiations with China</strong> are part of the Trump administration’s broader effort to mitigate the downsides of globalization, such as the vulnerabilities created by “just in time” supply chains and the deindustrialization of the U.S. heartland.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the words of Robert Lighthizer,</strong> the U.S. trade representative, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/how-make-trade-work-workers" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">in these pages</a>, the goal is to support “the kind of society [Americans] want to live in” by acknowledging the dignity of work and always keeping American workers and U.S. national security in mind when crafting economic policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Along those lines,</strong> one important measure was the administration’s strengthening of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which reviews major investments in U.S. companies by foreign entities and has helped to block Chinese companies from using investments to access key technologies developed by U.S. firms.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In accordance with the goal of enhancing American power,</strong> Trump has fulfilled his campaign promise to reverse the decline of the U.S. military—and has increased defense spending by almost 20 percent since 2017.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No administration’s policies</strong> are without flaws or inconsistencies.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has exhibited a tendency, shared by many of its predecessors, to rely too heavily on regional partners that are not always up to the job.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The president and members of his administration</strong> have also been brash to the point of counterproductively alienating allies, especially in Europe.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And tariffs</strong> have not always been applied in a strategic manner.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would have been better</strong> to seek unity in the contest against China rather than pick fights with allies and partners by imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on them in 2018.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8I1aTY?track_p_id=7Rcs1OTS6V1uus_YzCHId3C" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/8I1aTY?track_p_id=9gBMBX1SrU6V1uus_UJSiB3" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Competition: The Core Feature of the International Environment</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nadia Schadlow</strong> | Hudson Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump recognized this reality earlier than many in the U.S. foreign policy community.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No matter who is elected president</strong> in November, returning to a set of strategic assumptions designed for the unipolar moment would harm U.S. interests.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Competition</strong> is and will remain a core feature of the international environment, and interdependence does not obviate that.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whoever occupies the White House </strong>in January will need to understand that today’s multidimensional rivalries will not end in conventional victories.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More broadly,</strong> policymakers and strategists need to move past their emphasis on achieving particular end states, since that springs from a mechanistic and ahistorical view of how politics works.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality,</strong> as the historian Michael Howard argued, human acts create new sets of circumstances that, in turn, require new judgments and decisions.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Geopolitics</strong> is eternal.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is why competition</strong> persists no matter how much idealists might wish otherwise.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The goals of the liberal international order</strong> were laudable—and, in many cases, they were achieved against daunting odds.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world</strong> is safer, more prosperous, and more just than it once was.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the unexpected consequences</strong> of globalization and the unfulfilled promises of global governance cannot be overlooked.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a world of great-power competition,</strong> economic inequality, and dazzling technological capabilities, where ideologies as well as pathogens spread with viral ferocity, the stakes are too high and the consequences too dire to simply stick with what worked in the past and hope for the best.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump recognized this reality</strong> earlier than many in the U.S. foreign policy community.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whoever follows him</strong>—be it in 2021 or 2025—will need to recognize it, as well.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">3. 'President Trump has left the world order in worse shape than he found it.'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8aBung?track_p_id=83Pkr422v70GZAs_hix2TUz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/8aBung?track_p_id=4ikBh70GZAs_HsTbX3X%40Hn1" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit, but he has left it in worse shape than he found it.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display:block; height: 400px; min-height: 300px; overflow: hidden; position: relative;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8aBung?track_p_id=6zqhWw570GZAs_uslWBZl2r" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/9dXV-NpEmgz0XBw5mtoTgjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display: flex; width: 100%; height: 100%; object-fit: cover; position: absolute; top: 0; bottom: 0; left: 0; right: 0; margin: auto; border: none; pointer-events: none; "></a></td></tr><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “A lot is written about the sacred cows Mr Trump has gored, but less about the rabbits he’s pulled out of the hat.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some who have observed from ringside</strong> as Mr Trump has been swayed by flattery and greed feel that to dignify his foreign policy with any sort of conventional analysis is to grant it strategic and ideological heft that it lacks.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On this view</strong> Mr Trump’s big decisions have been driven by narcissism and a desire for personal gain: Trump First, not America First.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But those who stick by him</strong> give a different account. These supporters are consequentialists.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They argue that the detractors</strong> give too much weight to Mr Trump’s unseemly taunts and tweets; a focus on his actions and their likely results, some not yet felt, will tell a different story, one which will become clearer and look wiser as time goes by but which critics are currently blind to.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Matt Pottinger,</strong> deputy national security adviser, puts it, “a lot is written about the sacred cows Mr Trump has gored, but less about the rabbits he’s pulled out of the hat.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nadia Schadlow of the Hudson Institute,</strong> who served as deputy national security adviser for strategy in 2018, argues in <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em> [see her essay in this issue] that since the end of the cold war American policymakers have been “beguiled by a set of illusions about the world order”.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump’s “series of long-overdue corrections”</strong> has shattered those illusions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To assess that claim</strong> one must first note the degree to which Mr Trump’s course is, in fact, a continuation of that on which the country was already set.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The increased preoccupation with Asia</strong> (to which Mr Obama “pivoted”); the recognition that America needed to pay more attention to its domestic troubles (“nation-building here at home”, as Mr Obama called it); the weariness with “forever wars”:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘in all these areas</strong> Mr Trump has been following a public mood which has been shaping America’s foreign policy for years.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite his alarming bluster</strong> Mr Trump has not so far turned out to be a bellicose president.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Afghanistan</strong> he is winding down the longest war in American history (if not as fast as he promised to).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the Middle East</strong> he continued the fight against Islamic State, hunting down its self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, but he started no new wars.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2019</strong> he caused some consternation among hawks in his administration when he drew back from a counter-attack against Iran after it downed an American drone.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He makes an exception for trade wars;</strong> they provide a form of combat, brash and performative, which he positively relishes.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His campaign against China</strong> is the most heavyweight fight—one in which he claimed victory with the “phase one” trade deal reached in January.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But he was also happy </strong>to enter into hostilities with America’s North American neighbours, achieving what one observer called “the rare diplomatic feat of pissing off the Canadians” in order to renegotiate the trade deal that binds the two countries and Mexico.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his attempts to protect</strong> America’s steel industry he went as far as to call the European Union—composed almost entirely of NATO allies—a “foe” on trade.’’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has not been</strong> his only beef with Europe.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Presidents from John F. Kennedy</strong> onwards have complained about America’s NATO allies failing to carry a fair share of the burden of defending themselves.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump</strong> has done so with particular force—and to significant effect.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is one of the more salutary of the shocks</strong> he has administered to the basic assumptions of foreign-policy wonks around the world.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s reputation abroad</strong> has plunged during Mr Trump’s presidency.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Around the world,</strong> judging by a 13-country survey published in September by Pew Research Centre, the share of people with a favourable view of America is in many cases at its lowest since Pew began such polling nearly two decades ago (see chart 5).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Britain America’s approval rating</strong> has dropped from 61% in 2016 to 41%; in Japan it has fallen from 72% to 41%.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8aBung?track_p_id=5PtvFf70GZAs_ZMIKpzps3u" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/3bxtq1cNrXGntcwVjnZpczl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/3bxtq1cNrXGntcwVjnZpczl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="margin: 0;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘Confidence in Mr Trump </strong>to do the right thing in world affairs is even lower, especially in Europe:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘a dismal 11% in France and 10% in Germany,</strong> compared with a score of 84% and 86%, respectively, for Barack Obama in 2016.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘European foreign-policy types</strong> do not mince their words.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘ “Calamitous, cataclysmic, catastrophic, pathetic,”</strong> says François Heisbourg of the Foundation for Strategic Research, a French think-tank, when asked to describe how history will judge Mr Trump’s foreign policy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘At home many Republican foreign-policy experts</strong> hold similar views; dozens are supporting his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8sMF7o?track_p_id=eZ1jzUPwKsrJ5ln6MWixq_e" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/8sMF7o?track_p_id=3tlN6MWixq_bLCNhsogSW5p" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump Foreign Policy Audit: The Good and Bad</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under its increasingly authoritarian president, Xi Jinping, it has become a fiercer economic rival, as well as a more powerful one. It was left to Mr Trump to challenge the idea that this was unstoppable.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The “rules-based world order”</strong> beloved of those professionals (and this newspaper) was hardly in good shape when Mr Trump came to power.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rivalry with Russia and China had</strong> already rendered the unSecurity Council largely dysfunctional.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Obama had undermined</strong> America’s credibility as an ultimate enforcer when he declared that the use of chemical weapons by Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, would constitute a “red line” and then administered no retribution when it was crossed.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump has undercut</strong> that creaky established order in large part by giving new voice to an old strand in American thinking:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a belief that America</strong> should act beyond its borders only in furtherance of specific short-term interests.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From its first decades as superpower</strong> until a few years ago America sought to be a power not just in the world, but for the world.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would frequently restrain</strong> itself in deference to rules and the concerns of allies.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Mr Trump’s assessment,</strong> though, America comes first, might is right, and saying so is fun.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump’s brashness</strong> has not had all the dire consequences that critics predicted. Witness North Korea.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has been no subsequent crisis,</strong> and the de facto recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status has put to rest previous talk of pre-emptive military counter-proliferation strikes.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump’s bullying</strong> of NATO allies has certainly concentrated minds.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He claims credit</strong> for their increased defence spending, which in 2020 is expected to be 19% higher than it was in 2016, a cumulative extra spend over four years of $130bn (see chart 6, below).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But by failing to express unequivocal support</strong> for the mutual-defence guarantee at NATO’s heart he caused real damage, even as his administration increased its defence spending in Europe, deployed forces in front-line states and took part in some of the biggest exercises since the end of the cold war.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8sMF7o?track_p_id=2fZ6MWixq_inQolDZ4uNUYL" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/yTN11p2wfqDnxy-kqlmvsDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/yTN11p2wfqDnxy-kqlmvsDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the Middle East</strong> Mr Trump can claim bragging rights for the Abraham accords, a peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates since joined by Bahrain and, after some American arm-twisting, Sudan.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He pleased the Israeli government</strong> and many American supporters by moving America’s embassy to Jerusalem.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But he has shown no interest</strong> in using his influence to press the Saudis to end their brutal war in Yemen—instead, he vetoed a bill that would have helped do so.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than punishing Saudi Arabia’s crown prince,</strong> Muhammad bin Salman, for his suspected role in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a <em style="font-style: italic">Washington Post</em> columnist critical of the Saudi regime, Mr Trump protected him.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I saved his ass”,</strong> he boasted to Bob Woodward, a veteran reporter, who duly recorded the claim in his book “Rage”.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal</strong>—a move widely supported within his party—has put America at loggerheads with its allies and eased Iran’s route to becoming a nuclear power.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran,</strong> lacking any achievable aims, has little to show for itself save the deterrent effect of the uncharacteristically bold action which saw the country’s top general, Qassem Suleimani, killed by a drone.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a similar story</strong> with maximum pressure on Venezuela. That country’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, remains firmly in place, as does the communist regime of his Cuban backers.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The area where Mr Trump</strong> has shaken things up most is in relations with China, the single biggest issue in American foreign policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a rattling</strong> may have been coming anyway because of China’s growing aggression.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Trumpists believe</strong> the president’s new realism marked a decisive break with the Democrats’ tendency to favour process over outcomes.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to this narrative,</strong> Americans naively thought that opening up to China and letting it join the WTO in 2001 would in time encourage it to become more liberal and democratic.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The opposite has happened.</strong> China exploited the West’s openness in order to steal its intellectual property.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Under its increasingly authoritarian president, Xi Jinping,</strong> it has become a fiercer economic rival, as well as a more powerful one.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'It has continued to build up</strong> its armed forces and to bully its neighbours.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'It was left to Mr Trump to challenge</strong> the idea that this was unstoppable.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9AWZRw?track_p_id=6mw5HaO6NNWM2_Z4EHjJ2eH" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/9AWZRw?track_p_id=8Yk5jDGos6NNWM2_2Ee2i2s" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Foreign Policy Wrecking Ball</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump may have confronted a rising China and created the conditions both for some coalition-building in Asia and for Europe to get serious about its own defence. But the destruction along the way has been enormous.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The damage</strong> wrought by the president’s wrecking ball has mounted up in three particular areas.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first</strong> is institutional.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For more than half a century</strong> the world has run on the basis of a system established amid the ruins of the second world war, led by America.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now that system’s chief architect</strong> is undermining it.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In some cases</strong>—NATO, the WTO, the UN itself—Mr Trump has merely weakened the foundations.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In others</strong> he has turned tail.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His rejection of arms control</strong> goes beyond renouncing the Iran deal.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Russia broke</strong> the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty he scrapped the treaty completely.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He flirted with allowing New START,</strong> America’s one remaining nuclear treaty with Russia, to expire early next year, though now seems to want a last-ditch deal to save it.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump’s response</strong> to covid-19 has shown this approach at its worst.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the midst of a global pandemic</strong> he chose to attack and abandon the World Health Organisation, the body responsible for tackling such crises.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Where the world</strong> would normally expect America to take a lead, or at least to try to, it found an administration more interested in blaming others and shunning global efforts.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Something similar goes</strong> for the greater crisis beyond covid, that of climate change: a repudiation of international efforts and wilful negligence at home.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Every such American retreat from</strong> the international system is seen in Beijing as a chance to advance China’s claims.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second area of damage</strong> is Mr Trump’s sidelining of his allies, who have frequently had no prior warning of major developments such as America’s abandoning of the Kurds in Syria or its reduction of forces in Germany.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s alliances can act</strong> as a force-multiplier, turning its quarter or so of world GDPinto a coalition accounting for some 60% of the world economy, far harder for China or Russia (neither of which has a network of permanent allies) to resist.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet Mr Trump has taken allies</strong> for granted and belittled their leaders while flattering Presidents Putin and Xi.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign-policy get-togethers</strong> are awash with worries over “Westlessness”.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Allied misgivings about America</strong> reflect the third big casualty of Mr Trump’s wrecking ball: the country’s power of example.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For much of post-1945 history</strong> many have looked to America as a beacon—often flawed, to be sure, but nevertheless a champion of democracy and human rights, and the best hope for the aspirations expressed in its constitution.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now the world sees the workings</strong> of America’s own democracy called into question under a president who stokes racial divisions and slams the door on those yearning to breathe free.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Corruption at home</strong> makes it harder for American officials to be taken seriously when they preach about kleptocracy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As for human rights</strong> Mr Trump has maintained a public silence on abuses from Belarus to Hong Kong.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In private,</strong> according to John Bolton, his fourth national security adviser, he told Mr Xi that building detention camps for Uyghurs in Xinjiang was “the right thing to do”.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An America</strong> which can only claim to be stronger than China, not better, is one that has weakened itself.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How permanent</strong> is the damage?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some things</strong> can be put back together quickly if, as seems likely, Mr Biden wins the election.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the fact that America</strong> can elect rogue presidents won’t be forgotten.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The late Samuel Huntington,</strong> a political scientist, suggested that two changes of power were needed before a democracy could be considered firmly entrenched.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps two changes of president</strong> will be needed to reassure the world about America.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump</strong> may have confronted a rising China and created the conditions both for some coalition-building in Asia and for Europe to get serious about its own defence.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the destruction</strong> along the way has been enormous.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The repair job</strong> cannot begin soon enough.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

‍

This is Your Early Warning

10/28/2020

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;text-align: center;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;text-align: center;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Ocotber 28, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="Malcolm_Riddell" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">This is Your Early Warning</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'The persecution of the Uyghurs is a crime against humanity.' </strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. China Forecast 2025 Report</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'China Forecast 2025 Report: China Adjusts Course'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘China Forecast 2025 Report: Economy, Politics, Technology, & Energy</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Report Card on the China Trade War</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Report Card: 'China Trade War Didn’t Boost U.S. Manufacturing Might'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Part One | Report Card: 'Trump's Phase One Trade Deal with China' </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Part Two | Report Card: Go Deeper into the Trade War Outcomes</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status at the Expense of Hong Kong'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status to Support the "Greater Bay Area" Project'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Shenzhen’s Game-Changing Reform'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lots to read today,</strong> so I’ll be brief.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Persecution of the Uyghurs</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Macro Reporter</strong> aims to provide analyses of China’s politics and economics and their impact on geopolitics/economics.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because governments</strong> haven’t taken serious action to punish China, the persecution of the Uyghurs has remained a wholly internal matter. No outside impact.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">No outside impact.</strong> So, I haven’t highlighted this.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have been</strong> wrong.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></em> lays out China's actions so succinctly and so devastatingly that I realize I should have been including the issue all along.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></em> is surely right when it states:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The persecution of the Uyghurs</strong> is a crime against humanity' </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Liberal democracies</strong> have an obligation to call a gulag a gulag.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If they fail to stand up for liberal values </strong>they should not be surprised if others do not respect them, either.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And if they won’t,</strong> then we need to give them a push.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><br></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. China Forecast 2025 Report</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo’s forecast</strong> includes terrific analyses of where China’s Economy, Politics, Technology, & Energy will likely be in 2025.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each includes</strong> a base case, analysis, and a secondary case.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘WHY 2025? We decided</strong> on a medium-term time frame for several reasons.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, the five-year cycle</strong> also coincides with China’s own 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021-2025) that essentially sets the parameters on what to expect in terms of priorities and key agendas.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> the time period also overlaps with the new US administration and veers into the first years of Xi’s third term.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">These are must-read</strong> analyses to deepen your insights, not only into China in 2025, but China today.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><br></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Report Card on the China Trade War</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Readers know</strong> that I think of all the ways to persuade China to become a better actor the trade war was about the dumbest.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s going to, for example, change its</strong> – successful – economic model because of some tariffs, especially when exports as a percentage of GDP have fallen so greatly? As Joe Biden would say, ‘Gimme a break.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now the report card on the trade war</strong> is coming in. What did we get for the massive disruption to the global trading system and the world economy:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The trade deficit with China</strong> has risen amid the pandemic and is back to where it was at the start of the Trump administration.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another goal</strong>—reshoring of U.S. factory production—hasn’t happened either.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mandated purchases? </strong>‘Through September 2020, China had bought only 53 percent of what would have been expected under the Phase One Trade Deal by this point in the year.’ </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Year-to-date imports</strong> of all covered goods were only $65.9 billion relative to a target of $124.9 billion.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China's imports of covered goods</strong> from the rest of the world are 20 percent higher in 2020 than 2017.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'All these impediments and complications</strong> add up to a policy failure.' </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The Trump administration </strong>has provided an excellent case study of why simple purchase commitments cannot do the trick.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I’m not the sort</strong> to say, ‘I told you so.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So I won’t say</strong> anything more.<strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><br></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Early Warning Brief’</strong> is the first part of the title of Willy Wo-Lap Lam of The Jamestown Foundation’s essay.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second is part:</strong> ‘Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The third part:</strong> ‘at the Expense of Hong Kong.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each </strong>is critical.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Early Warning’ </strong>because it’s time to understand and seriously follow China’s creation of the “Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area” – it is happening, and it will change the dynamics of China’s economy and in turn the world’s.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Shenzhen’ </strong>because it looks as if Beijing intends Shenzhen, not Hong Kong, to be the Greater Bay Area’s center of gravity – and Beijing is lavishing benefits to be sure that happens.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘at Hong Kong’s expense’</strong> because, as events have shown, Hong Kong just isn’t as important in China’s calculation as it was when it went back to the Mainland in 1989.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And many Hong Kongers</strong> oppose Hong Kong’s participation in the Greater Bay Area (note: one other benefit of the National Security Law is to tamp down that opposition), and the Hong Kong people, well, just aren’t that reliable when it comes to snapping to when Beijing commands.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Be sure to read</strong> a more sympathetic interpretation by Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also has an excellent explanation</strong> of Chinese policymaking and implementation, as well as Shenzhen then and now. </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All in all, the Greater Bay Area</strong> should be moving up smartly in your list of what to watch.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Consider this</strong> your Early Warning.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong> </p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;text-align: center;padding: 40px 0;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td 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line-height:1.35em;letter-spacing:0.4px;text-align:center;">You'll find it in the archive</td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; margin:0 auto; padding:4px 0; width: 170px; height:auto; border: 5px solid #E7E8E0; text-align:center; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size:16px!important; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing:-0.2px; line-height:1.1;background-color:#f6f6f6; border-radius:2px;"><a style="color: #001544;text-decoration-line: none;border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none!important;" href="http://eepurl.com/gFrDCb" target="_blank">Browse the Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">1. 'The persecution of the Uyghurs is a crime against humanity' </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6AoUXA?track_p_id=2tB6Qwdo6_mDWTUffFExbqy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6AoUXA?track_p_id=e%40bVXoiUiaCjAC56Qwdo6_P" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The persecution of the Uyghurs is a crime against humanity' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6AoUXA?track_p_id=7UUWJN336Qwdo6_MQrXEfCn" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/JRD1Wy3jFJ1eTjMYBRFcyjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/JRD1Wy3jFJ1eTjMYBRFcyjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Liberal democracies have an obligation to call a gulag a gulag.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first stories from Xinjiang</strong> were hard to believe.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Surely the Chinese government</strong> was not running a gulag for Muslims?’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Surely Uyghurs</strong> were not being branded “extremists” and locked up simply for praying in public or growing long beards?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet, as we report</strong> in this week’s China section (see <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2020/10/17/how-xinjiangs-gulag-tears-families-apart" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">article</a>), the evidence of a campaign against the Uyghurs at home and abroad becomes more shocking with each scouring of the satellite evidence, each leak of official documents and each survivor’s pitiful account.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2018 the government</strong> pivoted from denying the camps’ existence to calling them “vocational education and training centres”—a kindly effort to help backward people gain marketable skills.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world</strong> should instead heed Uyghur victims of China’s coercive indoctrination.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Month after month,</strong> inmates say, they are drilled to renounce extremism and put their faith in “Xi Jinping Thought” rather than the Koran.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One told us that guards</strong> ask prisoners if there is a God, and beat those who say there is.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the camps</strong> are only part of a vast system of social control.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s 12m Uyghurs</strong> are a small, disaffected minority.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their Turkic language</strong> is distant from Chinese. They are mostly Muslim. A tiny handful have carried out terrorist attacks, including a bombing in a market in 2014 that left 43 people dead.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No terrorist incidents</strong> have occurred since 2017: proof, the government says, that tighter security and anti-extremism classes have made Xinjiang safe again.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is one way</strong> of putting it.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another is that,</strong> rather than catching the violent few, the government has in effect put all Uyghurs into an open-air prison.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The aim appears</strong> to be to crush the spirit of an entire people.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Even those outside</strong> the camps have to attend indoctrination sessions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Any who fail to gush</strong> about China’s president risk internment.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Families must watch other families,</strong> and report suspicious behaviour.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘New evidence</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">suggests</strong> that hundreds of thousands of Uyghur children may have been separated from one or both detained parents. Many of these temporary orphans are in boarding schools, where they are punished for speaking their own language.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Party cadres,</strong> usually Han Chinese, are stationed in Uyghur homes, a policy known as “becoming kin”.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rules against having too many children</strong> are strictly enforced on Uyghur women; some are sterilised.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Official data show</strong> that in two prefectures the Uyghur birth rate fell by more than 60% from 2015 to 2018.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Uyghur women</strong> are urged to marry Han Chinese men and rewarded if they do with a flat, a job or even a relative being spared the camps.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The persecution of the Uyghurs </strong>is a crime against humanity: it entails the forced transfer of people, the imprisonment of an identifiable group and the disappearance of individuals.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Systematically imposed by a government,</strong> it is the most extensive violation in the world today of the principle that individuals have a right to liberty and dignity simply because they are people.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Liberal democracies</strong> have an obligation to call a gulag a gulag.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In an age of growing global competition,</strong> that is what makes them different.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If they fail to stand up for liberal values </strong>they should not be surprised if others do not respect them, either.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">2. China Forecast 2025 Report</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6hx9yC?track_p_id=cy3QLG1UmXEgV6rqhXq_Shy" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/de6hejKzdZTj7H5edeyZLjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/de6hejKzdZTj7H5edeyZLjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hx9yC?track_p_id=dLWrhb5ebaR2Cm6rqhXq_Kt" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hx9yC?track_p_id=abJVToPPxZY6rqhXq_BK3VZ" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China Forecast 2025 Report: China Adjusts Course'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Damien Ma</strong> | MacroPolo</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So what kind of China should be expected by 2025?’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So what kind of China</strong> should be expected by 2025? Our simple answer:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A China</strong> that will be near-majority middle class for the first time,’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘with increasing technological parity</strong> with Silicon Valley and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a less carbon-intensive</strong> energy landscape,’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘all under the aegis of a stronger Xi Jinping</strong> and his vision of governance.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘WHY 2025?’</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We decided</strong> on a medium-term time frame for several reasons.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, the five-year cycle</strong> also coincides with China’s own 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021-2025) that essentially sets the parameters on what to expect in terms of priorities and key agendas.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> the time period also overlaps with the new US administration and veers into the first years of Xi’s third term.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Three,</strong> Chinese leaders themselves have imbued this next FYP cycle with more significance than usual because it begins the 15-year period leading up to 2035, the midway status point for Xi’s national rejuvenation agenda that runs up to 2049.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this context,</strong> the 15th and 16th FYPs will be building directly on the outcomes of this five-year cycle even more so than in the past.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘KEY FACTORS'</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We believe there are two key factors,</strong> one domestic and one external, that have changed and that matter for our forecast to a considerable degree:’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Stronger center, weaker localities: </strong>from dealing with debt and growth to executing on reforms and environmental initiatives, local governments are being kept on a much shorter leash and are less able to freelance relative to just five years ago.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The main manifestation </strong>of this dynamic will be Beijing’s continued fiscal hawkishness and increased actions to induce local compliance with central mandates.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Global power under global scrutiny: </strong>Beijing faces its toughest external environment in about a generation, centered on US-China tensions.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6Bwt3Q?track_p_id=c1IUOguZ2drfx6hP7Ms_qAz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6Bwt3Q?track_p_id=d4vRK4ISaQwi%40u6hP7Ms_mz" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China Forecast 2025 Report: Economy, Politics, Technology, & Energy'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Damien Ma</strong> | MacroPolo</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This forecast product has four base cases: Economy, Politics, Technology, & Energy.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each of these forecasts is excellent. Click on the title to read the base case, analysis, & secondary case.</strong></em></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This forecast product</strong> has four components:’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘1.</strong><a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-economy-forecast-2025-eluding-the-middle-income-trap/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Economy: Eluding the Middle Income Trap</strong> | </a>Houze Song’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">By 2025,</strong> Beijing will have had little choice but to reform its way out of challenges that result in a Chinese economy that will likely become more open, balanced, and efficient.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China faces</strong> one of the most daunting external environments in decades, which ironically will likely push Beijing to further embrace foreign direct investment (FDI) and improve the business environment.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the domestic front,</strong> China’s “internal circulation” agenda will be less about self-reliance but focus on improving productivity and inducing more local competition, while keeping a lid on financial risk.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pursuit of reform priorities</strong> means that at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2020-2025), China will likely have eluded the “middle-income trap” and become a near-majority middle-class country.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘2.</strong><a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Politics: Stronger as Xi Goes</strong></a> | Neil Thomas’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2025,</strong> Xi Jinping will remain General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chair of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People’s Republic of China. He will likely emerge the strongest he has ever been after the 20th Party Congress in 2022.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s unlikely that a clear successor </strong>will emerge from the 2022 political transition, to avoid diluting Xi’s authority as the CCP focuses on executing his domestic reform agenda.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi will likely focus his power</strong> on “the politics of execution” in his third term, as the 14th FYP begins his strategy to transform China into a superpower by 2035. This program will strengthen governance, discipline, and ideology to enhance Beijing’s ability to transmit policy through central agencies and local governments.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A strengthening focus on domestic priorities</strong> will involve some trade-offs, so Xi is unlikely to announce any major new foreign policy initiatives in the next five years.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘3.</strong><a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-technology-forecast-2025-fragile-tech-superpower/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Technology: Fragile Tech Superpower</strong></a> | Matt Sheehan'</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By 2025,</strong> China’s technology ecosystem will have matured and be on par with Silicon Valley in terms of dynamism, innovation, and competitiveness.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That dynamism</strong> will increasingly take the form of industrial applications of information technology, as the locus of Chinese innovation shifts from the <em style="font-style: italic">consumer internet</em> to the <em style="font-style: italic">industrial internet</em>.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China will largely succeed</strong> in deploying highly capable “new infrastructure”—cloud computing, 5G networks, smart cities, and surveillance networks, among others—to facilitate this transition to the industrial internet.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘US export controls on semiconductors</strong> will act as a modest brake on China’s new infrastructure rollout. But expanding restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment will mean that China remains vulnerable to future interruptions to its supply chain for advanced chips.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘4.</strong><a href="https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-energy-forecast-2025-setting-course-for-peak-emissions/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Energy: Setting Course for Peak Emissions</strong> | </a>Ilaria Mazzocco’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">By 2025,</strong> China will be close to achieving peak emissions as a result of more ambitious actions to bolster renewables, pivot toward market mechanisms, and enhanced energy efficiency measures.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Renewables will benefit</strong> from cost competitiveness relative to coal even in the absence of subsidies.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Power sector reforms</strong> announced in 2015 will see meaningful progress to better support Beijing’s decarbonization efforts.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These factors</strong> will mean that non-fossil energy sources such as nuclear, wind, and solar will be the major beneficiaries relative to coal over the medium term.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">3. Report Card on the China Trade War </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/95LNGC?track_p_id=eGY6WY46KOPuXaW6aQqUA_6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/95LNGC?track_p_id=9VhAzOKP436aQqUA_nAbFsR" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Report Card: 'China Trade War Didn’t Boost U.S. Manufacturing Might'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The trade deficit with China has risen amid the pandemic and is back to where it was at the start of the Trump administration.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump’s trade war against China</strong> didn’t achieve the central objective of reversing a U.S. decline in manufacturing, economic data show, despite tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods to discourage imports.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The tariffs</strong> did succeed in reducing the trade deficit with China in 2019.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the overall U.S. trade imbalance</strong> was bigger than ever that year and has continued climbing, soaring to a record $84 billion in August as U.S. importers shifted to cheaper sources of goods from Vietnam, Mexico and other countries.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The trade deficit with China</strong> also has risen amid the pandemic and is back to where it was at the start of the Trump administration.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/95LNGC?track_p_id=53zWTB6aQqUA_3StRJbcAiG" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Fyz_PepbmiLyUGlnfqf0ZDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/Fyz_PepbmiLyUGlnfqf0ZDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another goal</strong>—reshoring of U.S. factory production—<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/reshoring-report-finds-factory-work-not-returning-to-u-s-11562795251" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">hasn’t happened either</a>.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Job growth in manufacturing</strong> started to slow in July 2018, and manufacturing production peaked in December 2018.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Trump’s trade advisers</strong> nonetheless say the tariffs succeeded in forcing China to agree to a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-to-sign-deal-easing-trade-tensions-11579087018" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">phase one trade deal in January</a>, in which Beijing agreed to buy more U.S. goods, enforce intellectual property protections, remove regulatory barriers to agricultural trade and financial services and to not manipulate its currency.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They also say the tariffs</strong>—which <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-confirm-reaching-phase-one-trade-deal-11576234325#:~:text=U.S.%20tariffs%20of%2025%%20would,over%20the%20next%20two%20years." rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">remain on about $370 billion in Chinese goods annually</a>—will over time force China to end unfair practices and help rebuild the U.S. manufacturing base.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Tariffs</strong> “are having the effect of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in an interview.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He cites statistics</strong> that show a net gain of 400,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs from November 2016 until March 2020, when the pandemic forced widespread factory closures.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> about 75% of the increase in manufacturing jobs occurred before the first tranche of tariffs took effect against China in July 2018, when annual growth in manufacturing jobs peaked and then began to decline.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By early 2020,</strong> even before the pandemic reached the U.S., manufacturing job growth had stalled out, and factories shed workers in four of the six months through March.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4hyquW?track_p_id=069K9Z0_MwyYrk1QEY51Dnd" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/SuAnlj6NlfANA5qco1uJkjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/SuAnlj6NlfANA5qco1uJkjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="margin: 0;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘An industry-by-industry analysis</strong> by the Federal Reserve showed that tariffs did help boost employment by 0.3%, in industries exposed to trade with China, by giving protection to some domestic industries to cheaper Chinese imports.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘But these gains</strong> were more than offset by higher costs of importing Chinese parts, which cut manufacturing employment by 1.1%.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-impose-tariffs-on-more-u-s-products-11566562931" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Retaliatory tariffs imposed by China</a></strong>against U.S. exports, the analysis found, reduced U.S. factory jobs by 0.7%.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘Mr. Trump has called himself a “tariff man”</strong> and said businesses that complain about the impact of tariffs should simply build factories in the U.S.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘ “I happen to be a tariff person</strong> because I’m a smart person, OK?” Mr. Trump said in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-of-president-trumps-interview-with-the-wall-street-journal-1543272091" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">an interview with The Wall Street Journal</a>in November 2018 as the trade war intensified.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘ “We have been ripped off so badly</strong> by people coming in and stealing our wealth.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/509BEe?track_p_id=7Tv%40g6Od6cn8VK_Nu1rNXje" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TiISon2f36FD5_ms-2WONki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/509BEe?track_p_id=9qTrsVPhFr6cn8VK_FQUUTV" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part One | Report Card: 'Trump's Phase One Trade Deal with China' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/509BEe?track_p_id=2zA6cn8VK_42WXf4TGgZVEO" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q3feg0_6cPDwRvnnVHFUujl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/Q3feg0_6cPDwRvnnVHFUujl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chad Bown</strong> | PIIE</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The Trump administration has provided an excellent case study of why simple purchase commitments cannot do the trick.'</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> has staked a claim to success in his trade war with China on his phase one trade agreement of January 2020.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his self-proclaimed "</strong><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-u-s-china-phase-one-trade-agreement-2/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">historic</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">" deal,</strong> China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion of American-made goods and services over 2020 and 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump has even </strong><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-world-economic-forum-davos-switzerland/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">boasted </strong></a>that the deal "could be closer to $300 billion when it finishes." '</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the US election approaches,</strong> however, the evidence indicates that the deal is failing to live up to Trump's pledge.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The latest official </strong><a href="https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/us-china-phase-one-tracker-chinas-purchases-us-goods" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">data</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> show</strong> that China is falling short, reaching only 53 percent of the expected purchase target through September 2020.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In fact,</strong> Chinese imports of US goods are now lower than they were before Trump started his trade war with a blitz of US tariffs on Chinese products in 2018.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No single reason</strong> explains why China has not met the phase one goals.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The COVID-19 pandemic</strong> did initially knock China's economy on its heels, but its trade has recovered faster than most.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And some US exports to China</strong>—including medical supplies, pork, and semiconductors—actually accelerated in 2020.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From the start,</strong> $200 billion of additional sales to China was a <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/unappreciated-hazards-us-china-phase-one-deal" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">worrisome</a> target.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly 30 percent of US goods exports</strong> to China are not even covered by the phase one deal.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And for those that the agreement covered,</strong> a look at 15 sets of products shows that their sales to China have been affected by disparate factors, including plane crashes, animal disease outbreaks, export controls, legal rulings by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the lingering effects of the trade war's tariffs, as well as the pandemic.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These results show</strong> that relying simply on purchase targets not only fails to address China's problematic policies that hurt Americans but also helps solidify state planning as opposed to market-determined outcomes.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Specifically,</strong> because China continues to impose discriminatory retaliatory tariffs on American exporters, only its <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-phase-one-deal-relies-chinas-state-owned-enterprises" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">state-owned enterprises </a>and not the Chinese private sector will increase many of the purchases to meet the commitments—the opposite of what US policymakers say they want.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The agreement's targets</strong> also send signals to America's economic allies that the United States is mainly interested in China diverting imports away from their suppliers, as opposed to addressing China's problematic policies, undermining their confidence in US policy.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'All these impediments and complications</strong> add up to a policy failure.' </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The Trump administration </strong>has provided an excellent case study of why simple purchase commitments cannot do the trick.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/509BEe?track_p_id=6Br4II56cn8VK_z%40kzpUJJw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TiISon2f36FD5_ms-2WONki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/509BEe?track_p_id=afHsylYDYHg6cn8VK_Z%40aGb" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part Two | Trade War Report Card: Go Deeper</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/509BEe?track_p_id=2aH6cn8VK_5Obu1aYwo5hCZ" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/sPP6fjfnybe0YO_BEddpcTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/sPP6fjfnybe0YO_BEddpcTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chad Bown</strong> | PIIE</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The tariffs that the United States and China imposed on imports from each other decimated bilateral trade in 2018 and 2019.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The tariffs that the United States and China</strong> imposed on imports from each other decimated bilateral trade in 2018 and 2019.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration </strong>thus negotiated the legal text of the phase one agreement to commit China to buy an additional $200 billion of US goods and services over 2020 and 2021 on top <em style="font-style: italic">of 2017 </em>(and not 2019) levels, when bilateral trade was more robust.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Evaluating the deal on legal grounds</strong> thus requires comparison of 2020 with 2017.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through September 2020,</strong> China had bought only 53 percent of what would have been expected by this point in the year (figure 1, panel a).’ </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Year-to-date imports</strong> of all covered goods were only $65.9 billion relative to a target of $124.9 billion.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through three-quarters of 2020,</strong> China had purchased just more than one-third of what it pledged in Trump's deal it would buy this year. (The target for full-year purchases is $173.1 billion.)’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's imports from the United States</strong> have failed to catch up to pre-trade war levels, running 16 percent lower than at the same point in 2017.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China's imports of covered goods</strong> from the rest of the world are 20 percent higher in 2020 than 2017 (figure 1, panel b).’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the pandemic has hurt demand,</strong> China's overall imports in 2020 have done better than imports entering the rest of the world, according to data from the <a href="https://www.cpb.nl/en/worldtrademonitor" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">World Trade Monitor</a>.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The phase one deal </strong>does not cover nearly 30 percent of products that the United States exports to China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not surprisingly,</strong> China's imports of uncovered goods have done even worse in 2020—26 percent lower than 2017 levels (figure 1, panel c).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the other hand,</strong> China's imports of uncovered products from the rest of the world are up 3.4 percent (panel d).’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">4. Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5IJVYm?track_p_id=9ZiqQZiSWj9MwYms_AkX5%40v" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ejWbiE4Q5sBBSRg8aAweX0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5IJVYm?track_p_id=09MwYms_VDzdS5p5it1rCqT" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status at the Expense of Hong Kong'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5IJVYm?track_p_id=1W9MwYms_WZBk5fsai3LBDV" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Mnrydxh8F1F6dHMcLuCc-zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/Mnrydxh8F1F6dHMcLuCc-zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Jamestown Foundation</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Willy Wo-Lap Lam</strong> | The Jamestown Foundation</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi declared that reforms in the Shenzhen SEZ would open up a “new development scenario whereby domestic and international dual circulations will complement each other” ’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In mid-October,</strong> Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping unveiled reformist rhetoric by pledging to turn the southern city of Shenzhen (Guangdong Province) into a “comprehensive reform pilot project” (综合改革试点), and a “socialism with Chinese characteristics advance demonstration zone” (中国特色社会主义先行示范) for the country’s economic development policies.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Speaking at an October 14 ceremony </strong>marking the 40th anniversary of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Xi called upon the city of 13 million to “expand and accelerate all-round opening up policies,” with “institutional guarantees such as rules and norms.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his October 14 speech,</strong> Xi declared that reforms in the Shenzhen SEZ would open up a “new development scenario whereby domestic and international dual circulations will complement each other” (国内国际双循环相互促进).’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this context,</strong> “dual circulation” reiterates a theme unveiled following a Politburo meeting in July—referring to the smooth operation of supply chains, production, logistics, sales, and consumption, in terms of both domestic trade and the world market (<a href="https://jamestown.org/program/the-ccps-economic-plans-in-the-lead-up-to-the-fifth-party-plenum/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">China Brief</a>, August 14).’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time</strong> that new reforms are being unveiled, Xi has reminded the bosses of Shenzhen’s predominantly non-state enterprises that they must heed the party’s orders:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We must boost party leadership</strong>… Party construction must underpin the entire process of comprehensive reform experiments [in the SEZ].” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The practice of setting up CCP cells in private firms</strong>—and giving more decision-making powers to party cadres—was the subject of a major CCP Central Committee policy document issued in mid-September (<a href="https://jamestown.org/program/the-ccps-new-directives-for-united-front-work-in-private-enterprises/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">China Brief</a>, September 28).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This tightening of party control</strong> over the private sector has also been followed in Shenzhen, a supposed haven of market forces.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5aTpsu?track_p_id=dDH1pb4vDSkvMC6le07i_j3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ejWbiE4Q5sBBSRg8aAweX0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5aTpsu?track_p_id=dDGkh6b5ghmtCX6le07i_RK" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Early Warning Brief: Beijing Raises Shenzhen’s Status to Support the "Greater Bay Area" Project'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5aTpsu?track_p_id=3AVw6le07i_p4Sv4QzCxHW6" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/FypN4F-DBlxn_uWdaz1t2Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/FypN4F-DBlxn_uWdaz1t2Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Jamestown Foundation</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Willy Wo-Lap Lam</strong> | The Jamestown Foundation</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s speech also carries immense significance for the development of the entire Pearl River Delta into the “Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area." '</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s speech</strong> also carries immense significance for the development of the entire Pearl River Delta, now usually referred to as the “Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area” (粤港澳大湾区), or GBA.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consisting of</strong> Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Huizhou, and four other Guangdong cities, the GBA is supposed to spearhead the growth—particularly in high technology, finance, and the service sectors—of all of southern China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though Shenzhen’s GDP</strong> surpassed Hong Kong two years ago, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR)—which is China’s only international financial center with close business connections with most Western countries—has always been regarded as the dragon head of this region (<a href="https://invest.hket.com/article/2778543/%E3%80%90%E5%A4%A7%E7%81%A3%E5%8D%80%E3%80%91%E9%99%B3%E5%AE%B6%E5%BC%B7%EF%BC%9A%E6%9C%AC%E6%B8%AF%E5%9C%A8%E5%A4%A7%E7%81%A3%E5%8D%80%E8%A7%92%E8%89%B2%E4%B8%8D%E6%9C%83%E8%A2%AB%E5%8F%96%E4%BB%A3?mtc=40001&srkw=%E5%A4%A7%E7%81%A3%E5%8D%80" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Hong Kong Economic Times</a>, October 16; <a href="https://www.news.gov.hk/chi/2020/08/20200827/20200827_111947_916.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Gov.HK</a>, August 27).’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his Shenzhen speech, </strong>Xi designated the SEZ as an “important engine” for GBA development.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Plan</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> Shenzhen was even eulogized as “the core engine” for growth in this experimental region.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as Beijing</strong> maintains rigid control over capital-account movements and refuses to adopt internationally accepted practices of the rule of law, it is unlikely that Shenzhen can rival Hong Kong as a global financial hub.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> what has particularly alarmed highly-educated citizens of the HKSAR is the bald way in which Xi has advocated the de facto merger of Hong Kong with Shenzhen, Macau, and other GBA cities.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5seAD2?track_p_id=4mEWD91EFKw_zirSXcmqouR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5seAD2?track_p_id=4ZHuU91EFKw_kCSXV3x1SMR" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Shenzhen’s Game-Changing Reform'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin: 0 auto;background: #fff;max-width: 600px;width: 100%;text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5seAD2?track_p_id=aPiaZSSLDsd91EFKw_XCcaA" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/7btNHUgAosHM_8NDqNSzIzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/7btNHUgAosHM_8NDqNSzIzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width: 600px;width: 100%;margin: 0 auto;text-align: left;background: #fff;"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andrew Sheng</strong> | Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xiao Geng</strong> | Chairman of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance </h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s tour of the Guangdong province, which culminated in his speech in Shenzhen, was reminiscent of Deng Xiaoping’s famous 1992 southern tour.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Early this month, </strong>on the 40th anniversary of Shenzhen’s designation as a special economic zone (SEZ), Chinese President Xi Jinping <a href="https://www.chamber.org.hk/en/information/the-bulletin_detail.aspx?id=635&sid=1" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">unveiled</a> a blueprint for building the city into a trade, finance, and technology hub.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most China-watchers</strong> have focused on what this means for Hong Kong, Shanghai, or at most the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau “Greater Bay Area.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But such narrow assessments</strong> fail to capture the true significance of Xi’s plans for Shenzhen.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In fact,</strong> Xi’s tour of the Guangdong province, which culminated in his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ssMhjExy7Q&ab_channel=CGTN" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">speech</a> in Shenzhen, was reminiscent of Deng Xiaoping’s famous 1992 southern tour, during which he delivered a series of speeches that formed the foundations of Deng Xiaoping Theory.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this sense,</strong> it may well mark the beginning of a new era of China’s “reform and opening up.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was Xi’s own father,</strong> Xi Zhongxun, who, as the Guangdong province’s first Communist Party secretary, played a central role in establishing the initial SEZs in Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou, and Xiamen (with Hainan added later).’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the time,</strong> the chaos of the Cultural Revolution had pushed China’s economy to the brink of collapse.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With Guangdong</strong> facing severe food shortages, its residents were fleeing to Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is when China decided</strong> to create designated export-processing zones, financed largely by investment from Chinese overseas, including in Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thanks to Hong Kong’s busy port</strong> and world-class financial sector, Shenzhen was able to access new ideas, technologies, and resources that could spur entrepreneurial activity.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These experiments</strong> with market forces within China’s centrally planned economy were breathtakingly daring.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And they </strong>worked.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the last 40 years,</strong> Shenzhen achieved a staggering <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09/24/c_139394442.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">20.7% average annual GDP growth rate</a>.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What was once a poor fishing village</strong> now has the <a href="https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202008/26/WS5f45a358a310675eafc5579a.html#:~:text=Yet%20in%20less%20than%20half,is%20some%2010%20million%20larger." rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">highest per capita GDP </a>on the mainland, and a total GDP on par with Hong Kong’s at CN¥2.7 trillion ($402 billion).’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the contrary,</strong> to sustain progress, an updated approach to reform and opening up is essential.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Shenzhen</strong> – which has performed the best among the first cohort of SEZs – is the ideal place to test that approach.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is in line with China’s approach to development,</strong> which has always been based less on a particular theory or predetermined plan than on a process of experimentation under uncertain conditions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The process always begins</strong> with a hard-nosed appraisal of existing opportunities, threats, barriers, and possible breakthrough points.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such an appraisal</strong> is what produced China’s <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-five-year-plan-dual-circulation-strategy-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2020-09" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">dual-circulation strategy</a>, which is expected to be central to China’s soon-to-be-unveiled 14th Five-Year Plan, covering the 2021-25 period.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Far from implying that China</strong> is “turning inward,” as many have claimed, that strategy promises to improve the balance between openness to global opportunities and reliance on domestic production, distribution, and consumption.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The next step in China’s experimentation process</strong> is typically to test new reforms or approaches in a particular region, before implementing successful policies more widely, using a phased, coordinated approach.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is what is set</strong> to happen in Shenzhen.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The experimentation process</strong> clearly has top-down direction, but it is managed largely at the local level.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Four days after Xi’s Shenzhen speech,</strong> the National Development and Reform Commission <a href="http://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202010/18/content_WS5f8c042dc6d0f7257693dcff.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">announced </a>40 areas where increased autonomy would be delegated to Shenzhen, in order to facilitate the pilot reforms in market development and economic integration.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> Shenzhen will have increased authority over the allocation of capital, land, talent, and intellectual-property rights, and greater power to create new business regulations (including dispute-resolution systems) and incentives for innovation.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will also have far more space</strong> to create internationally compatible rules (such as financial-market regulations) and systems (including education, health care, and social security), without having to await provincial- or central-government approval.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> Shenzhen is not meant to thrive at the expense of the rest of China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the city undertakes bold reforms,</strong> it should consider not only internal objectives, but also the implications for the rest of the country.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some have </strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-xi-speech-hong-kong-shenzhen/2020/10/13/abcf261e-0daa-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">argued</strong></a> that the Shenzhen plan is aimed specifically at eroding Hong Kong’s competitive advantages.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This narrow view</strong> is wrong.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The truth</strong> is that Shenzhen’s development would create more opportunities for all, by expanding and deepening the regional market.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

China Policy Debates are Back

10/24/2020

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>October 24, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="Malcolm_Riddell" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">China Policy Debates are Back</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. I just saw my first Chinese bot!</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. China Commemorates the "War to Resist American Aggression and Aid Korea”</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Xi Jinping says China "determined to defeat invaders" in Korean war anniversary speech'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'In Xi’s Homage to Korean War, a Jab at the U.S.' </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. DEBATE: U.S. Policy Toward China</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">POINT | 'How America Can Push Back Against China's Aggression'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">COUNTERPOINT | 'The Overreach of the China Hawks'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"> </p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Issue:</strong> Should the U.S. take a hard line against China or one that is more accommodating?</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Continually revisiting that question </strong>or some form of it allows the U.S. to recalibrate as needed to meet changing circumstances or to integrate new intelligence.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Since the rapid</strong> – and pretty startling - bipartisan shift to the view that China is our adversary – period - robust and nuanced discussion has been stifled.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">No one – especially an elected official - wants</strong> to be accused of being soft on China, or worse a Panda Hugger.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But now within a new framework</strong> of legitimate U.S. concerns about China, debate is beginning again.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Consider an exchange</strong> in recent issues of <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs.</em></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In his 'How America Can Push Back Against China's Aggression,’</strong> Aaron Friedberg of Princeton argues:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deflecting Beijing from its present,</strong> revisionist path will naturally require defensive measures.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But better defenses</strong> alone will not suffice.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An effective strategy</strong> must also have a strong offensive component. The aims of this approach should be twofold:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘first, to deny Beijing </strong>its immediate objectives, imposing costs, slowing the growth of China’s power and influence, and reducing the threat it can pose to democracies and to an open international system; and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘second, by demonstrating</strong> the futility of China’s current strategy, to change the calculations of its ruling elite, forcing them to eventually rethink both their foreign and their domestic policies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the next issue of </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></em> a gaggle of luminaries - Michael D. Swaine, Ezra F. Vogel, Paul Heer, J. Stapleton Roy, Rachel Esplin Odell, Mike Mochizuki, Avery Goldstein, and Alice Miller – responded directly in<strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'The Overreach of the China Hawks.'</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">They counter</strong> Friedberg saying:</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In “An Answer to Aggression,”</strong> (September/October 2020), Aaron Friedberg argues that the United States and its allies and partners should use aggressive policies to contain China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Friedberg repeatedly offers</strong> sweeping, unqualified worst-case statements about China’s views, intentions, and actions—playing loose with the facts and exhibiting a lack of understanding of aspects of the Chinese system—to justify zero-sum policy prescriptions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Coercive “push back” policies alone</strong> will not compel Beijing to do the United States’ bidding—as Washington’s Cuba policy demonstrates.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To the contrary,</strong> such policies would increase the risk of conflict, strengthen chauvinistic nationalism in China, and reduce the chances that the United States can work with China to deal with urgent common problems.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. policymakers</strong> must adopt a more careful and considered approach.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A more realistic and effective approach</strong> would eschew demonizing rhetoric and apocalyptic speculation and seek to strike an appropriate balance between deterrence and cooperation, while making common cause with like-minded countries that share U.S. goals.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, Dr. Friedberg</strong> responds:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps it should come as no surprise</strong> in the current climate, but this multiauthored letter reads more like another overwrought political statement than an attempt at reasoned debate on complex issues.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the authors</strong> seem not to have updated their assessments of the regime’s intentions and capabilities, nor their prescriptions for how best to respond to its actions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent analyses suggest</strong> that China’s leaders believe their policies are working and that the tides of history are flowing in their favor.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Achieving a more stable relationship</strong> will require first persuading them that they are mistaken.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Attempting to reassure Beijing</strong> or to appease its “legitimate . . . concerns” by adopting a purely defensive posture will have the opposite effect, with potentially disastrous consequences.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This sounds like an example</strong> of the exchanges described, perhaps, by Henry Kissinger:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">The republic of learning and letters</strong> works by squabbling—especially bitter squabbling—because the stakes are so small.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But in this case</strong>, the stakes are very high.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And for that reason,</strong> that debates such this one,  even with all the cattiness, are taking place again a very good thing.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As I read these differing contentions</strong> about China’s aims and attitudes, I immediately thought of recent articles describing the PRC’s recent commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the Korean War or, as the Chinese call it, the “War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea,” the only military conflict between China and the United States - so far. And also of Xi Jinping’s barnburner of a speech (now that’s worth reading).</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></em> reports:</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The anniversary unfolded</strong> with a barrage of commemorative events, exhibitions, television documentaries and feature films. They all conveyed the same message:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese people</strong> have stood up to the United States before and, regardless of the costs, they will again.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The sort of anti-U.S. belligerence</strong> displayed throughout the commemoration could bolster Dr. Friedberg’s call for U.S. policy to have ‘a strong offensive component.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it also could be used</strong> by those calling for more U.S. accommodation with China to show that America’s hardline actions against China drove the country to that belligerence.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And that toning it down</strong> on the U.S. side would tone it down on the Chinese side.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Untangling issues</strong> like these calls for vigorous debate.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, fingers crossed,</strong> that seems to be coming back.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong> </p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">1. I just saw my first Chinese bot!</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6jYSky?track_p_id=8GBHW5O6r5UTH0o_wbw3f3K" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6jYSky?track_p_id=ayHhUzEeFKW5UTH0o_Tqapb" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">I just saw my first Chinese bot!</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://twitter.com/amandag64234389?utm_medium=email&utm_content=GG7aLuIQIxOikuoxFDVvrH-8VMeb7dw379JzLuSe4q-LzBHf1PN4ZAmv3SJOfMjp" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/2Vgp1GkwtIjv8IYfelotRTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell</strong> | CHINADebate</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Sending a bottle down to the boys in R&D. Our new AmandaGrayBot totally nails the typical American sorority sister’s authentic voice.'</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I may have seen my first Chinese bot on Twitter today</strong> – courtesy of the irreverent Relevant Organs [see the post below].</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If this is an example</strong> of the quality of Russian and Chinese bots, I am a lot less concerned about them.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said, </strong>it's hard to believe the Chinese could be this bad. </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The account</strong> is claimed by <a href="https://twitter.com/AmandaG64234389/with_replies" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Amanda Gray</a>.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Her tagline:</strong> ‘so cannot leave the ship. As he dare not change to man's’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yeah.</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://twitter.com/relevantorgans/status/1319500044211384321" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/zodbLzk4OChCgN78PDXWhzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">2. China Commemorates the "War to Resist American Aggression and Aid Korea”</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7vI2qG?track_p_id=6tvM4ME7YvJT4_phVwnljra" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/fpGU-wSZv6h37ihY1x6e3Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7vI2qG?track_p_id=07YvJT4_XGvuwZi6Zf4ns2A" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Xi Jinping says China "determined to defeat invaders" in Korean war anniversary speech'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display:block; height: 400px; min-height: 300px; overflow: hidden; position: relative;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7vI2qG?track_p_id=6Mf3p3C7YvJT4_ekrUEjnwA" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/GKu-YHaRBxsxhdsvOUuJgzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display: flex; width: 100%; height: 100%; object-fit: cover; position: absolute; top: 0; bottom: 0; left: 0; right: 0; margin: auto; border: none; pointer-events: none; "></a></td></tr><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Morning Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Let the world know that the people of China are now united and are not to be trifled with.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President </strong><a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/xi-jinping" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi Jinping</strong></a> has said that the Chinese military was determined to defeat invaders and warned against any attempt to divide the nation, in a fiercely nationalistic and pointed speech marking the 70th anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean war against American forces.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Speaking from the Great Hall of the People</strong> in Beijing on Friday, Xi touted what China calls the “War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea” from 1950 to 1953 – the only military conflict between <a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/us-china-relations" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">China and the United States</a> – as a demonstration of China’s military might against American imperialists, saying:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Seventy years ago, </strong>imperialist invaders brought the flames of war burning to the doorway of the new China.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The Chinese people understood</strong> that you must use the language that invaders can understand – to fight war with war and to stop an invasion with force, earning peace and respect through victory.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The Chinese people</strong> will not create trouble but nor are we afraid of them, and no matter the difficulties or challenges we face, our legs will not shake and our backs will not bend.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi stressed</strong> that “any country and any army, no matter how powerful they used to be” – a clear jab at the US – would see their actions “battered” if they stood against the international community.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He added that China</strong> needed to accelerate its military modernisation to build a world-class military, and to ensure that the ruling <a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/chinas-communist-party" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Communist Party </a>maintained “absolute leadership” over the military.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “In today’s world,</strong> any unilateralism, protectionism, and ideology of extreme self-interest are totally unworkable, and any blackmailing, blockades and extreme pressure are totally unworkable,” he said.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Any actions</strong> that focus only on oneself and any efforts to engage in hegemony and bullying will simply not work – not only will it not work, but it will be a dead end.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Korean war was the first</strong> – and so far only – time Chinese and US forces have engaged in large-scale direct combat.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the speech</strong>, Xi said the US ignored China’s warning 70 years ago to cross the military demarcation line between the two Koreas and send bombers to the northeastern border with China, causing significant fatalities.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He said China</strong> at the time was lagging far behind the US in terms of strength and power but had managed to defeat American troops together with North Korea.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The victory was a sign</strong> that “the era when Western aggressors can occupy a country by setting up cannons in the east is gone forever”, he said.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The experience showed</strong> the Chinese people could not be offended, and that they could withstand risk and pressure in front of enemies, he added.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi said China</strong> would never allow its sovereignty, security and development interests to be undermined.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Any act</strong> of unilateralism, monopolism and bullying would not work, and would only lead to a dead end.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Let the world know</strong> that the people of China are now united and are not to be trifled with.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He also said any attempt to divide China</strong> would be dealt with “head-on”, in a veiled warning to independence forces in Taiwan.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We would never allow</strong> anyone or any force to invade and divide the sacred territory of our motherland,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lu Xiang,</strong> a specialist on US affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Xi’s speech was sending a warning to the US, which was in confrontation with China over almost all aspects of their bilateral ties.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The decision to fight the US</strong> [70 years ago] was a difficult decision when China was a backward nation,” he said.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “But it sent a message</strong> that if the US took China’s warning as bluffing, it would suffer serious consequences.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The power gap</strong> between China and the US had narrowed and, therefore, the nation’s determination to defend its own security and sovereignty would be stronger, Lu said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6KsSdU?track_p_id=2WS8wMIZS_3HIv2lbfryv35" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6KsSdU?track_p_id=cdAY4%40QAVs5hO8wMIZS_Qjh" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'In Xi’s Homage to Korean War, a Jab at the U.S.' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6KsSdU?track_p_id=a3FwU4gvutS8wMIZS_U6ptX" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/uVAcK5mluW5-KDbz_yHBOTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="background-image: url(https://img.scoop.it/uVAcK5mluW5-KDbz_yHBOTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK); display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Steven Lee Myers and Chris Buckley | NYT</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The anniversary of the Korean War unfolded with a barrage of commemorative events, exhibitions, television documentaries and feature films. They all conveyed the same message: The Chinese people have stood up to the United States before and, regardless of the costs, they will again.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Mr. Xi and the country’s propagandists,</strong> the anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean War -  or as the Chinese call it, the "War to Resist American Aggression and Aid Korea” - 70 years ago this week could hardly have come at a more opportune time.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country,</strong> in their telling, is once again facing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/asia/us-china-trump-xi.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">an unprovoked assault </a>by a superpower determined to thwart China’s rise.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This time the United States,</strong> under President Trump, has targeted China’s trade policy, its technological advances and its territorial ambitions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The anniversary unfolded</strong> with a barrage of commemorative events, exhibitions, television documentaries and feature films. They all conveyed the same message:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese people</strong> have stood up to the United States before and, regardless of the costs, they will again.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The events commemorating the war</strong> — long known as the “forgotten war” in the United States — have followed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/world/asia/china-propaganda-united-states.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">a series of military drills and an outburst of propaganda</a>.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Together they have signaled</strong> a hardening resolve against the United States and further raised tensions inflamed by the coronavirus pandemic and President Trump’s continuing derision of China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘History in China</strong> has long been repurposed to fit political needs, leaving little room for a frank reckoning with the past.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the last two decades,</strong> some Chinese historians quietly challenged the heroic official narrative of Mao’s decision to thrust the country into the Korean War, fought from 1950 to 1953.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But that story</strong> has long been a pillar of the founding mythology of the People’s Republic of China, and Mr. Xi relived its highlights in his remarks.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Coming barely a year </strong>after the country’s founding, the war was a searing and painful test.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When it broke out,</strong> China remained at war with the nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek that had retreated to Taiwan, and also faced armed resistance to its invasion of Tibet.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese forces crossed the Yalu River</strong> to aid the retreating North Korean army on Oct. 19, 1950; six days later, they fought their first battle with the allied troops fighting under a United Nations mandate.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to China’s official account,</strong> which Mr. Xi cited on Friday, 197,000 Chinese died in the war, though historians broadly agree that the actual toll was much higher.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Commemorations of the war</strong> have ebbed and flowed in intensity over the decades for reasons having little to do with the war itself.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mao Zedong played down</strong> the 20th anniversary in 1970 as he sought a normalization of relations with the United States.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Jiang Zemin in 2000 emphasized</strong> the 50th, which occurred in the wake of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/17/world/chinese-embassy-bombing-a-wide-net-of-blame.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">American bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Serbia during the Kosovo war </a>the year before.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi also appeared</strong> to have a domestic audience in mind.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He and the rest of the party leadership</strong> are scheduled to gather next week in a closed-door assembly to discuss China’s priorities for the next five years.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He used Friday’s speech to restate</strong> his case for the primacy of the Communist Party leadership, with himself at the core.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a theme</strong> he has often invoked amid the pandemic, which, despite early missteps, his government has managed to bring under control domestically.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even the sight of a cadre of hundreds</strong> in a crowded hall — all wearing masks — was a striking contrast to bans on gatherings in many countries.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi’s speech</strong> had a strikingly hawkish tone, describing at one point the sacrifices of soldiers who had used their bodies as shields against a far superior force.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “They smashed the myth</strong> that the American military was invincible,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For most in China,</strong> the war has become a distant memory. Its remaining veterans are gradually dying off, and Chinese society today is unimaginably transformed from the impoverished China of the 1950s.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country</strong> has not experienced war now since 1979, when it invaded Vietnam and was routed.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lest the idea of war become an abstraction,</strong> the party’s propaganda apparatus has churned out dozens of programs.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A six-part documentary</strong> aired each night this week on state television. The nightly news casts have featured not only Mr. Xi’s appearances, as always, but also profiles of soldiers who fought and died.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Film studios have responded </strong>to government directives and produced a series of feature films, including an animated movie, called “Salute to Heroes,” that is aimed at younger audiences.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Also having its opening on Friday</strong> was a blockbuster about the war starring Wu Jing, the lead actor in the “Wolf Warrior” action film franchise that has given <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/world/asia/coronavirus-china-xi-jinping.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">a name to Chinese diplomacy</a> of late.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The film depicts Chinese soldiers</strong> keeping a vital river crossing open against relentless American bombardment. Its title in English: “The Sacrifice.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Near the end,</strong> an American pilot marvels at the tenacity of the soldiers below. He radios back to his commanders that their attacks have failed.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “There’s nothing</strong> we can do to stop them.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block;padding:10px 3.5% 15px 3.5%;background-color:#c80000;text-align:center;font-family:'Lato';font-size:1.8rem;line-height:1.5em;color:#ffffff;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:20px;">3. DEBATE: U.S. Policy Toward China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5bDW8O?track_p_id=chFqyeEe3DIK15FM8Ks_RMJ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5bDW8O?track_p_id=6MeH%40QL5FM8Ks_bgwY62Rnf" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">POINT | 'How America Can Push Back Against China's Aggression'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display:block; height: 400px; min-height: 300px; overflow: hidden; position: relative;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5bDW8O?track_p_id=4vzUc5FM8Ks_A6WUe44GLI3" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/zoZQw78QSimPowPZQu1gwDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display: flex; width: 100%; height: 100%; object-fit: cover; position: absolute; top: 0; bottom: 0; left: 0; right: 0; margin: auto; border: none; pointer-events: none; "></a></td></tr><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Aaron L. Friedberg</strong> | Princeton University</h3><h2 style="font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;text-align: center;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the United States and its allies are able to engage in sustained resistance, China’s leaders may eventually be forced to reconsider their present path.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the long run,</strong> China’s rulers evidently hope that they can divide, discredit, and weaken the democracies, lessening the appeal of their system, co-opting some, isolating others, and leaving the United States at the head of what will be, at best, a diminished and enfeebled coalition.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is one thing to have such dreams,</strong> another to actually fulfill them.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition to its impressive strengths,</strong> China has large and mounting liabilities, including a slowing economy, a rapidly aging population, and a system of governance that relies on costly coercion rather than the freely given consent of its people.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These liabilities</strong> will complicate the regime’s plans and could eventually derail them.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it would be imprudent</strong> to assume that this will happen soon or of its own accord.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deflecting Beijing from its present,</strong> revisionist path will naturally require defensive measures.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the face of China’s growing strength,</strong> the United States and its allies need to bolster their defenses against overt acts of military aggression or coercion.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They must also do more to protect their economies</strong> from exploitation and their societies and political systems from penetration and subversion.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But better defenses</strong> alone will not suffice.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An effective strategy</strong> must also have a strong offensive component.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It must be designed to identify and exploit</strong> the CCP regime’s vulnerabilities instead of simply responding to its actions or trying to match its strengths.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A purely reactive posture</strong> might have been adequate for dealing with a far weaker, nascent rival, but it cannot succeed against an opponent as powerful and aggressive as China has become.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even as they block Beijing’s attempts</strong> to advance toward its goals, the United States and its allies must therefore find ways to regain the initiative.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The aims of this approach</strong> should be twofold:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘first, to deny Beijing </strong>its immediate objectives, imposing costs, slowing the growth of China’s power and influence, and reducing the threat it can pose to democracies and to an open international system; and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘second, by demonstrating</strong> the futility of China’s current strategy, to change the calculations of its ruling elite, forcing them to eventually rethink both their foreign and their domestic policies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At present,</strong> the United States is not well situated to capitalize on Beijing’s belligerence.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> deserves credit for turning U.S. China policy in a more realistic direction.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But for nearly four years,</strong> the president has picked fights with the United States’ friends and allies, proved incapable of speaking persuasively about democratic values, and refused to criticize Beijing for its egregious violations of human rights.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All of this has left the United States </strong>poorly positioned to lead a coalition in pushing back against China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,</strong> the president’s decision to make China a centerpiece in his reelection campaign, blaming Beijing for all the hardships unleashed by the pandemic, has short-circuited some early efforts at bipartisan cooperation in Congress.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Still, the fact</strong> that the Democratic and Republican Parties are now accusing each other of being soft on China and competing to stake out the tougher position suggests that a consensus has begun to take shape.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the United States and its allies</strong> are able to engage in sustained resistance, China’s leaders may eventually be forced to reconsider their present path.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Bg6YS?track_p_id=06ACJ8I_3kR2XOrfnWlPkyg" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Bg6YS?track_p_id=ebppOeBLylbwacg6ACJ8I_t" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">COUNTERPOINT | 'The Overreach of the China Hawks'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael D. Swaine, Ezra F. Vogel, Paul Heer, J. Stapleton Roy, Rachel Esplin Odell, Mike Mochizuki, Avery Goldstein, and Alice Miller</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A more realistic and effective approach would eschew demonizing rhetoric and apocalyptic speculation and seek to strike an appropriate balance between deterrence and cooperation, while making common cause with like-minded countries that share U.S. goals.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In “An Answer to Aggression,”</strong> (September/October 2020), Aaron Friedberg <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-08-11/ccp-answer-aggression" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">argues</a> that the United States and its allies and partners should use aggressive policies to contain China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Friedberg repeatedly offers</strong> sweeping, unqualified worst-case statements about China’s views, intentions, and actions—playing loose with the facts and exhibiting a lack of understanding of aspects of the Chinese system—to justify zero-sum policy prescriptions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Coercive “push back” policies alone</strong> will not compel Beijing to do the United States’ bidding—as Washington’s Cuba policy demonstrates.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To the contrary,</strong> such policies would increase the risk of conflict, strengthen chauvinistic nationalism in China, and reduce the chances that the United States can work with China to deal with urgent common problems.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. policymakers</strong> must adopt a more careful and considered approach.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> must coordinate with allies and partners not only to deter and compete with China when needed but also to incentivize Beijing to cooperate in addressing shared concerns such as global warming and current and future pandemics.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington </strong>should aim to diminish the likelihood of nuclear war, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, a costly arms race, and the spread of terrorism.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It should seek a stable power balance</strong> in the Asia-Pacific region that respects the interests of all countries—including those of China.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it should revise and expand multilateral trade</strong> and investment agreements and foster international efforts to better address natural disasters and human rights abuses in all countries.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a strategy requires</strong> not belligerence and muscle flexing but vigorous and well-funded diplomacy backed by resilient and strategically deployed military forces designed to reinforce stability, not provoke confrontation.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Managing the relationship with Beijing</strong> is a long-term project that cannot succeed without domestic revitalization, greater unity of national purpose, and a respect for global opinion.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But above all, </strong>U.S. leaders have to take a much more realistic view of the United States’ relationship with China than is now common in Washington and avoid sliding into Friedberg’s black-and-white vision of confrontation.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A more realistic and effective approach</strong> would eschew demonizing rhetoric and apocalyptic speculation and seek to strike an appropriate balance between deterrence and cooperation, while making common cause with like-minded countries that share U.S. goals.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders,</strong> for their part, have made clear that they foresee an extended period of both “struggle and cooperation” with the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From a strategic standpoint,</strong> therefore, U.S. policymakers should be willing to settle in for the long haul.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington has a global network of allies and partners</strong> who look for wise U.S. leadership when it comes to China, an advantage it should not squander.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Friedberg’s bluntly confrontational,</strong> zero-sum approach would make it very hard to build this more workable policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> can do better.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6n1DxA?track_p_id=3wgY8gF0qE_uvIaDhQjidV5" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6n1DxA?track_p_id=5PIwAD8gF0qE_TVZzBppwWt" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">FRIEDBERG REPLIES</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Aaron L. Friedberg</strong> | Princeton University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Attempting to reassure Beijing or to appease its “legitimate . . . concerns” by adopting a purely defensive posture will have the opposite effect, with potentially disastrous consequences.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I believe that the authors</strong> misunderstand the threat China now poses and understate its severity.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That threat</strong> is a product of China’s growing material power coupled with the <a href="https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/01/10/getting-the-china-challenge-right/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">distinctive character </a>of its domestic regime.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whatever else they may believe,</strong> Chinese President Xi Jinping and his colleagues are fervent Leninists.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They regard all politics</strong> as a <a href="https://sinocism.com/p/engineers-of-the-soul-ideology-in" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">zero-sum</a>, “you die, I live” struggle.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are determined </strong>to <a href="https://docs.house.gov/meetings/IG/IG00/20190516/109462/HHRG-116-IG00-Wstate-HoffmanS-20190516.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">crush dissent </a>and to retain the Communist Party’s monopoly on political authority at home, <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/17/the-persecution-of-the-uyghurs-is-a-crime-against-humanity" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">whatever the cost</a>, and to overawe potential opponents and demonstrate the superiority of China’s system by transforming it into the world’s <a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/testimonies/SFR%20for%20USCC%20TobinD%2020200313.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">strongest state</a>.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As their capabilities and confidence have grown,</strong> China’s rulers have started to push back against both the material strength and physical presence of the United States and its democratic allies, as well as the subversive appeal of their liberal democratic ideals.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing seeks to undermine </strong>the credibility of U.S. security guarantees and to divide democracies from one another while continuing to penetrate and exploit their societies, economies, and information spheres.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has become more open</strong> in trying to use <a href="http://www.theasanforum.org/chinese-economic-coercion-during-the-thaad-dispute/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">economic leverage</a> to pressure the United States’ Asian allies and has recently stepped up <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/04/hustling-in-himalayas-sino-indian-border-confrontation-pub-81979" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">the use of force</a> and threats of force against several of its democratic neighbors.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At Xi’s direction,</strong> the party has intensified its use of covert “united front” <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/magic-weapons-chinas-political-influence-activities-under-xi-jinping" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">political influence operations</a> to try to shape the perceptions and policies of other countries.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing is employing </strong>a variety of “<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-11-16/meaning-sharp-power" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">sharp power</a>” tactics to expand its influence in developing countries and through them in international organizations.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it seeks to </strong><a href="https://www.nbr.org/publication/china-at-the-un-human-rights-council-conjuring-a-community-of-shared-future-for-humankind/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">redefine existing norms </strong></a>in ways that deny the existence of “so-called Western universal values” and assert the moral equivalence of regimes based on unchecked state power.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China may not be trying to force others</strong> to adopt its model, but its actions and example are reinforcing trends toward authoritarianism in places where democracy has not yet taken firm root.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The aggressive turn in China’s policies</strong> began to emerge during a period in which the United States and other democracies were doing everything possible to accommodate China’s rise.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These troubling tendencies</strong> have been clearly <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hus-to-blame-for-chinas-foreign-assertiveness/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">evident </a>since at least the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and have grown more obvious since Xi’s rise to power in 2012.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the authors</strong> seem not to have updated their assessments of the regime’s intentions and capabilities, nor their prescriptions for how best to respond to its actions.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent analyses suggest</strong> that China’s leaders believe <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/china-thinks-america-losing" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">their policies are working</a> and that the tides of history are flowing in their favor.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Achieving a more stable relationship</strong> will require first persuading them that they are mistaken.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Attempting to reassure Beijing</strong> or to appease its “legitimate . . . concerns” by adopting a purely defensive posture will have the opposite effect, with potentially disastrous consequences.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

Why Xi Jinping Believes America is Losing, & How That is Shaping His Actions

10/17/2020

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>October 17, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="Malcolm_Riddell" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">Why Xi Jinping Believes America is Losing, & How That is Shaping His Actions</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. China's Perception of America & How China Is Acting on That Perception</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Part 1 | 'China Thinks America Is Losing': Chinese Perceptions</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Part 2 | 'China Thinks America Is Losing': China's Actions</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'Strategic Ambiguity': The Korean War, Taiwan, & The Lessons of Deterrence</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘Taiwan Envoy Hsiao Bi-Khim Hopes For ‘Clarity’ on U.S. Protection from China’ </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'The Korean War’s Lesson for Taiwan'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">A Look Back To 1952 | 'Korea in Perspective'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'The US is Trying to Use Export Controls to Restrict Huawei’s Access to Semiconductors'</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Weak Spots in China’s Economic Recovery’</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Readers know</strong> that I support the U.S.’s abandoning its decades-old policy of not saying whether or not it would defend Taiwan against an invasion by China. That is, ‘Strategic Ambiguity.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But they also know</strong> that I realize that that change comes with the considerable risk of provoking the Chinese attack that the policy seeks to prevent.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">By supporting the policy change,</strong> I find myself in the comfortable company of Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And,</strong> I find myself in the not-so-comfortable company (for the first time I recall) of Neo-Con Paul Wolfowitz (who aided in persuading President George W. Bush that taking our eye off Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in favor of invading Iraq was a good idea).</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But Mr. Wolfowitz</strong> has written a useful WSJ op-ed calling for a declaration of U.S. commitment to Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">His analogy</strong> is the Korean War.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A failure</strong> of resolve can invite catastrophe.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Korean War was preventable</strong> if the U.S. had made clear beforehand that it would forcefully oppose North Korean aggression.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Before the invasion, </strong>U.S. political and military leaders didn’t want to defend South Korea and considered an invasion unlikely.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a surprise attack</strong> by seven well-equipped North Korean divisions advancing rapidly down the peninsula changed both the strategic and political calculus.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mark Twain famously said, </strong>‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The circumstances</strong> surrounding a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are certainly different from those of the Soviet- and Chinese-backed North Korean invasion of South Korea.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But they</strong> are also similar.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And as Mr. Wolfowitz argues</strong> the preventative action may be the same:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deterrence rests</strong> on a paradox:’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The best way to prevent war</strong> is to threaten war.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And if all this seems a little arcane quibbling</strong>, consider also Mr. Wolfowitz’s conclusion:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Chinese invasion of Taiwan</strong> would present the greatest threat to global peace in a generation.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is why the U.S.</strong> must get its answers to the questions of clarity and, equally important, how much clarity (there are degrees the U.S. could choose from) right.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Complementing Mr. Wolfowitz’s comments is a ‘look back’ to 1952</strong> to an analysis of why the U.S. had to defend South Korea. This by Adlai Stevenson, governor of Illinois, U.S. Delegate to the UN, and two-time Democratic presidential candidate. He writes:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The lesson of Korea</strong> may be of historic importance.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What would have happened </strong>if the United States and the United Nations had ignored the Korean aggression?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Substitute China for the Soviet Union</strong>, and Taiwan for Korea, and we see the challenges and debate about responses to those challenges haven’t changed all that much.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><br></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Opening the issue</strong> is one of the most important analyses – a must-read – I’ve seen explaining the Chinese perception of the U.S. and the actions China is taking based on those perceptions: ‘China Thinks American is Losing’ by Julian Gewirtz. He writes:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders and policymakers </strong>have believed for decades that U.S. power is waning and that the United States seeks to impede China’s rise.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These ideas shaped the worldview</strong> of Chinese President Xi Jinping.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump has turned</strong> what Beijing perceived as a long-term risk into an immediate crisis that demands the urgent mobilization of the Chinese system.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has sought to weaken the grip of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on society, force the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-07-20/trumps-trade-policy-making-america-stronger" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">liberalization of</a> the state-dominated Chinese economic system, and block China’s drive to technological supremacy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly four years into this gambit,</strong> however, Trump’s policies appear to have produced the opposite result in each domain.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And according to Mr. Gewirtz </strong>these perceptions and actions won’t change under President Biden.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><br></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also today</strong> is 'The US is Trying to Use Export Controls to Restrict Huawei’s Access to Semiconductors' by PIIE’s Chad Bown.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If you’re having as much trouble</strong> as I am understanding the ins and outs of just how the U.S. is working to starve Huawei and China itself of semiconductors, this will explain it.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Bown</strong> has constructed a chart that outlines the flows related to semiconductor supply chains.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, yes,</strong> it is a complicated chart, but it’s a complicated issue. </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nonetheless,</strong> well worth a few minutes to track through each channel and how the U.S. is blocking it.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally we have another update</strong> from CreditSuisse on China’s economic recovery. In sum:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese industrial production momentum</strong> has declined from an extremely high level.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Industrial production growth</strong> should remain positive as the labor market heals and business confidence improves.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, policy stimulus has started to fade,</strong> and will weigh on growth in the next quarter.’</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">1. China's Perception of America & How China is Acting on that Perception</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6pZNCq?track_p_id=6bxAZq29Ish3O_EmoWH3NAP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6pZNCq?track_p_id=3c6q9Ish3O_s3RKweXSZebg" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 1 | 'China Thinks America is Losing': Chinese Perceptions</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6pZNCq?track_p_id=c1ocLHbg2szGJ9Ish3O_j35" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/wORJQxi5FgsyQTe2iNeAVjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Julian Gewirtz</strong> | Council On Foreign Relations</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The wolf is coming.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders and policymakers </strong>have believed for decades that U.S. power is waning and that the United States seeks to impede China’s rise.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mao Zedong</strong> was fond of predicting the decline of the capitalist world led by the United States, comparing it to “a dying person who is sinking fast.” '</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He regularly attacked </strong>Western attempts to subvert China’s communist revolution, <a href="http://faculty.weber.edu/sfrancis/Mao.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">denouncing</a>“reactionaries trying to hold back the wheel of history.” '</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These ideas outlived Mao,</strong> although they were shaken as the CCP embraced market reforms and as the United States emerged as the sole superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the 2008 financial crisis,</strong> which left China relatively unscathed, caused the country’s leaders to wonder whether the ruinous decline of capitalism that Mao had predicted had in fact arrived.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And with their Marxist-inflected view</strong> of historical forces, they expected that this prospect would lead, as night follows day, to the flailing of Mao’s hopeless “reactionaries”—American leaders who would try in vain to hold China down.' </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These ideas shaped the worldview</strong> of Chinese President Xi Jinping.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When he came to power in 2012,</strong> he spoke of historical patterns of conflict between rising and fading hegemonic powers, warned about  the U.S. role in hastening the collapse of the Soviet Union.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Xi and his lieutenants</strong> were initially more focused on addressing the political and ideological fragility of the system they inherited; they expected <a href="http://sis.ruc.edu.cn/html/1/m/186/188/269/589.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">the decay of the United States</a> to be gradual.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many Chinese elites</strong> now think that Trump’s presidency has pushed that slow process into a new phase of sharp and <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194336.shtml" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">irreversible deterioration</a>.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They took measure</strong> of the president’s withdrawal from international agreements and institutions and his disdain for traditional alliances.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They saw how U.S. domestic policies</strong> were exacerbating inequality and polarization, keeping out immigrants, and cutting federal funding for research and development.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These beliefs have become a central premise</strong> of China’s evolving strategy toward the United States.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘CCP leaders</strong> connect this rapid American decline to intensified U.S. efforts to contain China.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States under Trump</strong> has gone from being a latent, long-term menace to the source of concerted efforts to, in the favored phrase of Chinese officialdom, “comprehensively suppress” China.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s actions and rhetoric</strong> have solidified <a href="http://www.iis.fudan.edu.cn/6a/b3/c6897a158387/page.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Beijing’s assessment</a> that there is now a durable American effort underway to quickly suppress China.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders</strong> see that effort as bipartisan, too, with near-unanimous congressional votes on legislation related to China and criticisms of China coming from prominent Democrats, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.' </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/3z4z6i860n4" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An editorial</strong></a> from this past July in the Chinese state-run newspaper <em style="font-style: italic">Global Times</em> stated, “China must accept the reality that America’s attitude toward China has fundamentally changed.”</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson, Zhao Lijian,</strong> declared in August that the United States is “a far cry from the major power it used to be,” with its leaders bent on “working to suppress China because they fear China’s growth.”</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These ideas </strong>are remarkably widespread in the statements of Chinese officials and experts, the pages of CCP magazines and newspapers, and across Chinese social media.' </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ Chinese leaders</strong> have long thought that this confrontation might arrive someday, but it has come much quicker than they expected.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “People in the United States and China</strong> have for years said the wolf is coming, the wolf is coming, but the wolf hasn’t come,” <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/world/asia/donald-trump-tariffs-china.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Shi Yinhong</a>, a leading international relations scholar, told <em style="font-style: italic">The New York Times</em>.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This time,</strong> the wolf is coming.”</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77WmES?track_p_id=6Kus3jY5qZXqg_OHWngUEKv" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/77WmES?track_p_id=amaUa6rVkCX5qZXqg_SMqaT" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 2 | 'China Thinks America is Losing': China's Actions</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Julian Gewirtz</strong> | Council on Foreign Relations</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly four years into this gambit, however, Trump’s policies appear to have produced the opposite result in each domain.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump has turned</strong> what Beijing perceived as a long-term risk into an immediate crisis that demands the urgent mobilization of the Chinese system.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has sought to weaken the grip of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on society, force the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-07-20/trumps-trade-policy-making-america-stronger" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">liberalization of</a> the state-dominated Chinese economic system, and block China’s drive to technological supremacy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly four years into this gambit,</strong> however, Trump’s policies appear to have produced the opposite result in each domain.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With such perceptions entrenched,</strong> it should come as no surprise that China has reacted in ways that are leading to further conflict between the already divergent U.S. and Chinese systems.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since Xi’s ascent,</strong> China’s ever more authoritarian and domineering turn has alarmed governments around the world.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2018,</strong> Xi removed <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-43361276" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">term limits on</a> his office.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under his watch,</strong> the CCP has more openly embraced its illiberal identity, pairing repression at home—most gruesomely in Xinjiang, where internment camps hold more than one million Uighurs and members of other minority ethnic groups—with loud criticism of democracies abroad.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s</strong> call to “engage and empower the Chinese people” against the CCP—an appeal widely interpreted in China as a bid for regime change—the party’s hold over society remains strong.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It rolled out</strong> new ideological and political campaigns this past summer.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The clampdown</strong> that accompanied China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further bolstered Beijing’s surveillance and social control systems.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some top U.S. officials</strong> have maintained that the goal of Trump’s policy is to force the liberalization of China’s state-dominated economic system, but from the outset of the trade war in 2018, the Chinese government <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011832/arrogant-demands-us-invade-chinas-economic-sovereignty-state" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">judged</a> that Trump’s goals were mercantilist—he cared only about getting a so-called good deal for the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In response,</strong> China’s rulers have redoubled their reliance on the state sector to deal with the instability resulting from conflict with the United States.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Far from curbing China’s push for technological supremacy,</strong> Trump’s actions have encouraged its leaders to accelerate their drive to reduce their country’s dependence on the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After Xi came to power,</strong> he made it a priority to address the dangers of interdependence, including through the “Made in China 2025” initiative, which aims to make China 70 percent self-sufficient in ten core technologies by the year 2025.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beginning this past spring,</strong> <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3095401/chinas-xi-jinping-braces-turbulence-ahead-relations-us" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">he unveiled an agenda</a> for the economy that aims to reorient China’s economic development inward, relying much more on China’s enormous domestic market and less on the “more unstable and uncertain world.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Fostering domestic demand</strong> has long been a talking point of Chinese leaders, but Xi has pledged to make achieving greater domestic consumption a centerpiece of the upcoming five-year plan for 2021–25.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This shift is clearly driven</strong> by the assumption that the United States will continue working against China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He also wants China</strong> to strengthen and diversify its ties to other economies around the world, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, an international network of infrastructure projects that aims to increase China’s geopolitical influence.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is not deglobalizing</strong> as much as it is de-Americanizing.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s conviction that the United States</strong> is a diminishing and hostile power has emboldened its leaders to pursue long-standing objectives with new vigor.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their view of U.S. decline</strong> makes them see fewer risks in taking highly aggressive positions, and their sense of U.S. hostility, among other factors, increases their willingness to incur <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-08-11/ccp-answer-aggression" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">international opprobrium</a>:’<ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘imposing a new national security law on Hong Kong;</strong> committing atrocities in Xinjiang; bullying Australia, India, and the Philippines; threatening Taiwan; forging new partnerships with Iran and Russia; and letting Chinese diplomats spread conspiracy theories about the origins of COVID-19.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A world in which China truly becomes self-reliant</strong> is a world in which the United States has much less leverage over China than it does at present.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;"> 2. 'Strategic Ambiguity': The Korean War, Taiwan, & the Lessons of Deterrence</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5EmxwO?track_p_id=9cEdKdb32h9918He_ysNlxZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5EmxwO?track_p_id=6zsrfid9918He_yfKxwtPbQ" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan envoy Hsiao Bi-khim hopes for ‘clarity’ on U.S. protection from China </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5EmxwO?track_p_id=cZ1zqL22qihqX9918He_6AP" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/IjctX0MkmpjD5dNspdxA-Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the U.S.</strong></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We need some degree of clarity.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.-Taiwan security relationship has been purposely ambiguous for four decades.’ </strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But amid increasing Chinese threats of invasion,</strong> America’s commitment to Taiwan needs to be clearer, the island’s de facto ambassador to the United States said this week.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We need some degree of clarity,”</strong> Hsiao Bi-khim, an American-educated lawmaker who became representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington this summer, told Today’s WorldView.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The comments</strong> come amid soaring tensions between Taiwan and China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This weekend,</strong> China aired <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eXWnAJmEa9tT4VRpC6TWtg" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">footage of a military exercise </a>simulating an invasion of Taiwan, as well as a purported confession from a Taiwanese businessman Beijing is holding on spying charges.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan does not believe China</strong> is preparing for a “full-scale military attack,” Hsiao said.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But there is “a risk of accident or miscalculation,”</strong> and there needs to be a clear “position that military force is not tolerated and that there are multiple stakeholders in the region that want to jointly assure stability and peace.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ ‘When it comes to the thorny question</strong> of whether the United States would intervene if China attacked Taiwan, the Trump administration has followed its predecessors in keeping to a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” refusing to directly answer the question. The initial logic behind the tactic was simple.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ambiguity not only kept China guessing,</strong> but it also stopped Taiwan from making potentially provocative moves.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, with tensions rising again,</strong> calls for change appear to be growing inside and outside the White House. In <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">an article for Foreign Affairs</a> last month, Richard Haass and David Sacks argued it was time for a concrete U.S.-Taiwan security pact.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The United States</strong> should adopt a position of strategic clarity, making explicit that it would respond to any Chinese use of force against Taiwan,” Haass and Sacks wrote.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2001, </strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2001/05/02/not-so-deft-on-taiwan/2adf3075-ee98-4e70-9be0-5459ce1edd5d/?itid=lk_inline_manual_26" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Biden wrote an opinion piece</strong></a> for The Washington Post defending strategic ambiguity.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “As a matter of diplomacy,</strong> there is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan,” he argued.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A lot has changed in 20 years:’</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan has proved its democratic ethos,</strong> while U.S. concern about a Taiwan-China conflict has grown.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Michèle Flournoy,</strong> speculated to be <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/potential-biden-administration-defense-pick-outlines-pentagon-priorities-for-next-decade/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">in the running</a> for Biden’s defense secretary, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-18/how-prevent-war-asia" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">has written </a>of the need for new military capabilities to deter China from attacking Taiwan.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Biden</strong> has offered few hints of what his Taiwan policy would look like.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Calls for clarity seem to be a shift for Taiwan.’ </strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “As far as I know,</strong> prior administrations in Taiwan have not asked for a clear U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan,” Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has argued against a change in policy, wrote in an email.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I believe that Taiwan president Tsai</strong> recognizes that such a shift in U.S. policy could provoke a crisis with China, and therefore would not welcome it,” Glaser continued.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “That said,</strong> if the U.S. consulted the Tsai administration, it would trigger a debate about whether such an offer would ever come again and whether the risks were acceptable.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Taiwan,</strong> the subject of strategic ambiguity is debated with considerable nuance, Hsiao explained, with disagreement about “what degree of clarity” is in Taiwan’s interest.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But she rejected the idea</strong> that Taiwan could be pushed by more hawkish voices in Washington.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I have not considered at all</strong> the possibility of too much support for Taiwan,” she said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Esefo?track_p_id=aTVCWOrSLSJ6R303y_ipvIZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Esefo?track_p_id=7mRWUD3u6R303y_d3MNmyFh" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 1 | 'The Korean War’s Lesson for Taiwan'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/9Esefo?track_p_id=aMoaolWpXHv6R303y_yl%40H%40" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/ZH0DAwo6rNocWY1p2eP3aDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Paul Wolfowitz</strong> | American Enterprise Institute and deputy defense secretary (2001-05).</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would present the greatest threat to global peace in a generation.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Chinese invasion of Taiwan</strong> would present the greatest threat to global peace in a generation.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. would confront an agonizing dilemma:’</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘risk an armed clash</strong> between two nuclear superpowers or abandon a free people to communist tyranny.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But there’s an alternative</strong>—deter the threat by committing to oppose it, by force if necessary.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deterrence rests</strong> on a paradox:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The best way to prevent war</strong> is to threaten war.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since 1979,</strong> when the U.S. normalized relations with Beijing and Congress enacted the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington’s relations with Taipei have been based on ambiguity.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet an unambiguous deterrence commitment</strong> would be fully consistent with the longstanding U.S. position that differences between Taiwan and the mainland need to be resolved peacefully, without the use or threat of force and with no unilateral declaration of Taiwanese independence.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We can’t know how Mr. Xi </strong>would react to a credible red line (or to the failure to draw one).’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Historical analogies</strong> are always imprecise; the Korean scenario was complex, and Taiwan’s situation differs from both Korea and Berlin [discussed below].’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And there’s no denying</strong> that such an approach entails significant risks. ‘</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But continued ambiguity</strong> in the face of Mr. Xi’s escalating rhetoric and provocative movements by his armed forces in the Taiwan Strait presents the greater risk of a confrontation as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis. ‘</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'That leaves us with the credible threat of military force</strong> as the best hope of avoiding war.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9AL4am?track_p_id=eWQZpiylJqsQdZ18HE98Q_I" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/9AL4am?track_p_id=6kAJ1Eo8HE98Q_iAtE2PBF%40" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 2 | 'The Korean War’s Lesson for Taiwan'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/9AL4am?track_p_id=08HE98Q_CSc36hxh66DxMei" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/jIfWmrwMm8hrayUPLolT9Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Paul Wolfowitz</strong> | American Enterprise Institute and deputy defense secretary (2001-05).</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Korean War was preventable if the U.S. had made clear beforehand that it would forcefully oppose North Korean aggression.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The history of the 20th century</strong> illustrates what successful deterrence can accomplish.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deterrence enabled West Berlin</strong> to survive as a free city despite a political status even more ambiguous than Taiwan’s and a truly indefensible military position.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cold War history</strong> also illustrates a corollary: A failure of resolve can invite catastrophe.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Korean War was preventable</strong> if the U.S. had made clear beforehand that it would forcefully oppose North Korean aggression.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Soviet documents</strong> released in 1995 reveal that North Korea’s first dictator, Kim Il-Sung, visited Stalin in March 1949 and proposed invading South Korea.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Stalin, concerned that American troops</strong> “will interfere in case of hostilities,” rejected the idea.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But by 1950,</strong> U.S. combat forces had left Korea based on the stated <a href="https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/11_Sneider_FINAL_CC2007.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">belief</a> of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that “Korea is of little strategic value” and a commitment to use military force in Korea would be “ill-advised and impracticable.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gen. Douglas MacArthur </strong>endorsed that view publicly in a March 1949 interview, as did Secretary of State Dean Acheson in a January 1950 speech.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Moscow’s thinking changed</strong> after China fell to the Communist Party in October 1949.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to the documents, </strong>that demonstrated to the Soviets the “weakness of Asian reactionaries” and their American “mentors,” who “left China” without daring “to challenge the new Chinese authorities.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Stalin invited Kim</strong> back to Moscow to discuss a possible invasion.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A summary of those discussions</strong>—which historian Kathryn Weathersby <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/should-we-fear-stalin-and-the-danger-war-america" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">calls </a>“the clearest expression that we have about Stalin’s reasoning” on the invasion—shows that even after America’s withdrawal, his primary concern remained that an attack might prompt a U.S. intervention and drag the Soviets into a direct conflict.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since “the U.S.S.R.</strong> was not ready to get involved in Korean affairs directly, especially if the Americans did venture to send troops to Korea,” the documents said, Stalin required Kim to get Mao’s approval.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the additional reassurance</strong> from Soviet intelligence that the “prevailing mood” in the U.S. was “not to interfere,” Stalin unleashed Kim Il-Sung on South Korea and started a horrible war.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Stalin’s spies</strong> weren’t wrong in their assessment of the American “mood.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Before the invasion, </strong>U.S. political and military leaders didn’t want to defend South Korea and considered an invasion unlikely.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a surprise attack</strong> by seven well-equipped North Korean divisions advancing rapidly down the peninsula changed both the strategic and political calculus.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/65adBQ?track_p_id=35b395kkHu_3XeRBGiGc4fs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/65adBQ?track_p_id=3uwo95kkHu_2pK4gim2tRjC" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Look Back to 1952 | 'Korea in Perspective'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/65adBQ?track_p_id=cc%40eglH6jBIwZ95kkHu_JPA" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lZTQKXx_eH5r9BSMVbmgTDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs | April 1952</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Adlai Stevenson</strong> | Governor of Illinois. U.S. Delegate at the UN, & two-time Democratic presidential candidate</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The lesson of Korea may be of historic importance. What would have happened if the United States and the United Nations had ignored the Korean aggression?’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Substitute China for the Soviet Union, and Taiwan for Korea, and we see that the challenges and debate about responses to them haven’t changed all that much.</strong></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When North Korean forces</strong> invaded the Republic of Korea on June 25, 1950, with the full support of Peking and Moscow, most of us knew what was at stake.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of the men</strong> who took part in the long, anxious meeting at Blair House gave the simplest explanation of the decision: "This attack on South Korea is like Hitler's reoccupation of the Rhineland." ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Historians</strong> have for years commented on the tragic mistake of France in not ordering the instant mobilization of the French Army when Hitler's troops started marching--and on the shortsightedness of the British and others who failed to urge and support such action.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An American columnist</strong> pointed out in June 1950 that President Truman's decision, taken with the virtually unanimous support of the American people and their representatives in Congress, recalled the words of former Secretary of State Henry L. Stimson following what he termed "the tragedy of timidity" in the Far Eastern crisis of the early thirties:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "I broke out and said,"</strong> wrote Mr. Stimson, "that I was living in a world where all my troubles came from the same thing . . . where we are constantly shut in by the timidity of governments . . . and I said that the time had come when somebody has got to show some guts." ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What would have happened</strong> if the United States and the United Nations had ignored the Korean aggression? I can venture a guess.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our friends throughout Asia and in the Pacific</strong> would with perfect reason have doubted our intention to resist Soviet design elsewhere in that area, and they would of necessity have taken the path of appeasement.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Disillusionment would also have swept Western Europe</strong> at this impressive demonstration of Soviet-satellite power and of American indecision in the face of a direct challenge.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then would not the Soviet Union,</strong> having challenged us successfully in Korea, have followed that challenge with another? And still another? Munich would follow Munich.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our vacillation</strong> would have paralyzed our will and worked havoc in the community of like-minded nations.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then when we did succeed</strong> in pulling ourselves together we would have found it too late to organize a common front with our friends.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,</strong> some of the positive gains of our policy thus far may properly be noted.’ [Only the third point is presented here]</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Third, the Soviet Union</strong> now knows that the path of conquest is mortally dangerous.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Korean aggression</strong> very likely was planned as merely the first of a series of military actions--initially by satellites, finally to be undertaken by the Soviet Union itself.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If so, the lesson of Korea</strong> may be of historic importance.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Speculation about possible adjustments</strong> in the thinking of the men in the Kremlin must be cautious.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We dare not tie our policies</strong> to any one assumption regarding Soviet intentions. Whatever those intentions are, however, the Soviet miscalculation in Korea will make them harder of fulfillment.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The burden of my argument,</strong> then, based on the meaning of our experience in Korea as I see it, is that we have made historic progress toward the establishment of a viable system of collective security.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is incontrovertible,</strong> I think, is that America needs and wants allies. I think most Americans know this.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think we believe</strong> that the redress in the balance of power in the world must be completed, and quickly.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think we believe</strong> that the great experiment in collective security on which we embarked in 1945 is still in the long run our best chance for peace.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think we believe</strong> that international coöperation is more than elocution.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In short,</strong> I think most of us have convictions about the position of the United States in the world today and accept the risks and responsibilities inherent in that position.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The nature of the American decision</strong> was shown--is shown--in Korea.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Shall we retreat from that decision?</strong> Shall we go it alone? Or shall we go forward with allies?’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">3. Starving China of Semiconductors</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/61GFRw?track_p_id=6pJU2Y37WxWvu_X4uOu1GME" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TiISon2f36FD5_ms-2WONki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/61GFRw?track_p_id=5MZ63Y7WxWvu_R62Wyp3Y43" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The US is trying to use export controls to restrict Huawei’s access to semiconductors'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/61GFRw?track_p_id=8uCeO%403Xv7WxWvu_3yL%40LON" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lYSkC2rEqv0OwLg5Mnw2Jjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chad Bown</strong> | PIIE</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign-located firms were presented with a choice: continue to do business with Huawei and lose access to American-made tools or stop selling to Huawei and continue to buy American equipment.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has implemented a series of export controls targeting Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The measures,</strong> designed to protect US national security interests, attempt to cut off Huawei’s access to semiconductors, the tiny chips necessary to produce the company’s telecommunications hardware for 5G networks.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Global semiconductor supply chains</strong> are long, but four important parts stand out—semiconductor manufacturing equipment, software, the design process, and manufacturing the chips. ‘</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Often,</strong> these parts are all done by different companies in different countries.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2019, the US Department of Commerce</strong> added Huawei to its “Entity List,” prohibiting American firms from selling goods and services to Huawei and its subsidiary, HiSilicon, without a license.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the restrictions failed</strong> to disrupt Huawei’s access to semiconductor supplies as the chips were still available from manufacturers outside the United States.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To prevent Huawei</strong> from circumnavigating the 2019 export restrictions, the Trump administration implemented new curbs in 2020 that prevented American manufacturers of equipment used to produce semiconductors from selling to companies abroad that wanted to sell chips to Huawei.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign-located firms</strong> were presented with a choice: continue to do business with Huawei and lose access to American-made tools or stop selling to Huawei and continue to buy American equipment.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This PIIE Chart</strong> was adapted from Chad P. Bown’s blog post, <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/how-trumps-export-curbs-semiconductors-and-equipment-hurt-us" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">“How Trump’s export curbs on semiconductors and equipment hurt the US technology sector.”</a> ’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">4. Weak Spots in China's Economic Recovery</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/74tzHM?track_p_id=07gGzde_lhguHbWl4o3kNRN" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pd2AGi8v7b5rElII6CSyYki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/74tzHM?track_p_id=2pD7gGzde_QI35ghGC3p3Am" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Economy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/74tzHM?track_p_id=7njP3CCU7gGzde_s6IdVCza" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/gqiUkPZPF3MKyRbdO48-Njl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A broader economic recovery will rely on a continuously healing labor market.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese industrial production momentum</strong> has declined from an extremely high level.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Industrial production growth</strong> should remain positive as the labor market heals and business confidence improves.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, policy stimulus has started to fade,</strong> and will weigh on growth in the next quarter.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth could reaccelerate</strong> powerfully once vaccines are widely available, possibly in the spring.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Industrial production growth</strong> has averaged 0.4% in the past four months, consistent with the trend from recent years but much slower than the pace observed during the reopening phase in March and May.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the aggregate level,</strong> economic slack has diminished: industrial production and electricity output have returned to pre-COVID highs, corroborated by robust PMI surveys and trade volumes.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite a steadier growth rate,</strong> the recovery has become more balanced in recent months, thanks to effective controls over the spread of the virus.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sentiment among private manufacturing businesses</strong> has improved and capex accelerated in August.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Discretionary consumer spending</strong> also reached an x month high.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These two sectors</strong> lagged in the earlier phases of the recovery, and there is still considerable room for them to catch up in the coming quarters.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A broader economic recovery</strong> will rely on a continuously healing labor market.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More workers</strong> have returned to their posts as service sector activity has broadened.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The latest survey</strong> from the central bank shows continued improvements in job finding prospects in Q3.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Vaccine approvals</strong> by the end of the year would help further.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even if rollout is limited at first,</strong> they depict a more predictable future and reinforce the public's confidence: long-term investment can be deployed and further layoffs can be avoided.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite successes</strong> in preventing contagion and developing vaccines, China faces a fundamental economic challenge.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economy</strong> can no longer persistently grow at a high rate without incurring substantial economic, social, and environmental costs.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years,</strong> policymakers have actively directed their reform efforts to ensure resources flow to more sustainable activities.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pandemic disrupted the process,</strong> but normalization should allow it to resume.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Two sectors</strong> that have led the early stage of the recovery, and defending economic growth receive a lower policy priority for now.’</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Real Estate. Credit policy has become tighter,</strong> particularly in the real estate sector. New regulatory restrictions have been issued to codify constraints on builders' ability to borrow.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Infrastructure. Fiscal stimulus in infrastructure investment</strong> will have run its course later this year.’</li></ol><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result of the opposing forces described above,</strong> the Chinese industrial sector should continue expanding, but likely at a lower rate than the average of recent years.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A more organic growth reacceleration</strong> will likely happen once winter season has passed and vaccines start to get rolled out.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

China Saves the World!

10/14/2020

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Oct 14, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="Malcolm_Riddell" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">China Saves the World!</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. China Saves The World!</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage from Pandemic, IMF Says</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">IMF: 'World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">IMF: 'Global Financial Stability Report: Bridge to Recovery'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. China, Trump, & Biden: The View from The U.S., the View from China</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘This Is A Guy Who Is A Thug’: How US Elite Became Hawks on Xi’s China </li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">China Braced for Lose-Lose Scenario As US Election Fuels Unease</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Shifting Supply Chains: Focus on Taiwan</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Taiwan Manufacturing Leaving China</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Supply Chain Snapshot: Moving Industrial Clusters Out Of China</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;">  </p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Whether you love him or hate,</strong> Trump gets full marks for making China a front-burner issue.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">There is a lot of truth </strong>in Representative Mike Gallager’s statement: "Until the president stood up to Beijing, many people in Washington had assumed China was unstoppable." </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So,</strong> as the Financial Times puts it:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Regardless of which candidate</strong> wins the election, the leader taking office in January will preside over a radically different US-China relationship than eight years ago, when Mr Biden and Mr Xi were both vice-presidents — or even four years ago.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The problem </strong>is that sentiment shifted so quickly to ‘China is bad’ that those who want to bring some nuance into the discussion are often derided as Panda Huggers and dismissed or shouted down.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This means</strong> that whether Trump or Biden wins, the scope in the U.S. for China policy debate and responses will be narrow – and that leads to bad outcomes regardless of who is president.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Then, of course,</strong> there is China. The Financial Times asks: ‘Who would China vote for in next month’s US presidential election?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The answer:</strong> ‘It would choose neither.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Why? </strong>The Chinese who are quoted in the FT article essentially say:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China expects</strong> that Mr. Trump in a second term would continue to confront China, but he would do it alone.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Biden, if elected,</strong> would work to reinvigorate traditional alliances to confront China together.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Comparing these</strong> I have a tough time understanding why China would choose neither.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Trump</strong> has certainly proven his ability to bash China, but his actions have been chaotic and ineffective with a few notable exceptions.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He has also reduced U.S. influence</strong> in international organizations, and China is filling the void.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And because of his dissing of our allies</strong>, he leaves American standing pretty much alone against China.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Should a President Biden</strong> reverse these, it would seem to me that China would have a more difficult time all around. </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, as Yu Jie,</strong> a senior fellow at Chatham House, points out:</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“A Trump victory</strong> would be dreadful for US-China relations but something of a gift for Mr Xi politically.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The more the US demonises China,</strong> the more that Chinese citizens — even those who dislike Xi’s leadership — would rally behind him.”</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And within the [Communist] party,</strong> anyone who dared to criticise Xi would be accused of kowtowing to foreign aggressors and thus effectively silenced.”</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Continuous China bashing</strong> from the Trump administration would completely eliminate the pro-US and less conservative voices within the Chinese political establishment.”</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So I would think </strong>if Xi Jinping could cast a vote, he would be a MAGA guy.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Who knows?</strong> With all the reports of hacking, maybe Xi will get his vote in one way or another.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"> </p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also in this issue,</strong> summaries of two recent IMF reports. The upshot regarding China:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Except for China,</strong> where output is expected to exceed 2019 levels this year, output in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies is projected to remain below 2019 levels even next year.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But ‘IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath</strong> said China was pulling up the global numbers, and without China “cumulative growth for 2020 and 2021 is negative.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">BTW beyond anything about China</strong> these two reports provide excellent analyses of the global macro situation.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And they are well worth</strong> reading carefully.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"> </p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally, so much of the focus on foreign businesses leaving</strong> China – or not leaving - is on the U.S., the EU, and Japan.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But Taiwan businesses,</strong> which help power China’s economy and supply tech companies like Apple, are also leaving.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And with government encouragement: </strong>‘Taiwan has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of America’s growing wariness about doing business in China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Taiwanese government,</strong> long concerned about the country’s economic overdependence on China, has grabbed the opportunity and has offered subsidies for Taiwanese companies that bring some operations back home.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is of course upsetting the Chinese government </strong>and adding tension to an already tense situation.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also here is a snapshot</strong> of what’s happening with Taiwan companies in China that highlights attorney Nick Chen.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Decades ago,</strong> Nick guided 100s of Taiwanese companies into China's industrial parks. </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now he is returning</strong> ‘to the China-based industrial parks which he helped fill up more than 30 years ago — to convince companies to build additional production facilities in new countries.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I will replicate</strong> those industrial clusters elsewhere,” he says.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Note: ‘Mr Chen</strong> believes northern Mexico’s time has come.’</p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">1. China Saves the World</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8LBkjw?track_p_id=6cutZcg5SFXdm_qP%40ihcVzz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8LBkjw?track_p_id=7gqkfi5Z5SFXdm_O5omL6OP" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Growth Limits Global Economic Damage From Pandemic, IMF Says</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Without China cumulative growth for 2020 and 2021 is negative.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The global economic collapse</strong> caused by <a href="https://www.wsj.com/news/collection/coronavirus-6dcf2a21" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">the coronavirus </a>won’t be as severe as estimated earlier, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday, thanks to strong government intervention world-wide and a swift recovery in China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world’s gross domestic product</strong> is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, not as sharp as the 5.2% drop the IMF projected in June but still the most severe downturn since the Great Depression.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘World output</strong> will grow 5.2% in 2021, down from an earlier estimate of 5.4%.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China,</strong> where the pandemic originated, will be the only major economy to grow this year, the IMF predicted.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world’s No. 2 economy</strong> is forecast to expand 1.9% in 2020, compared with growth of 6.1% last year. China’s growth will accelerate to 8.2% next year, the IMF said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a briefing on the recently released </strong><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent'</strong></a> [more below]<strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said China was pulling up the global numbers, and without China “cumulative growth for 2020 and 2021 is negative.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its economy</strong> has already surpassed its levels of 2019, she said, but for harder-hit regions like parts of Europe or Latin America, it is “going into 2023 to return back to pre-pandemic levels.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The IMF said</strong> the outcome would have been “much weaker if it weren’t for sizable, swift and unprecedented fiscal, monetary, and regulatory responses.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other reasons for the improved global outlook,</strong> the IMF said, included better-than-expected performance in advanced economies in the second quarter and signs of a more rapid recovery in the third quarter.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it added</strong> a note of caution.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “While the global economy</strong> is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain,” Ms. Gopinath wrote.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8dM544?track_p_id=baGqKCYqXnUJ9GPnrS_YOGA" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/H9lU7sAmIcRX6bNNtXmRSzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="margin: 0;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘For most advanced economies,</strong> the bounceback in 2021 won’t be large enough to heal all the damage done in 2020.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘In the U.S.,</strong> growth next year is projected at 3.1% after a 4.3% decline this year.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘The eurozone</strong> will expand 5.2% after shrinking 8.3%.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong>‘Japan </strong>is likely to see 2.3% growth, following a 5.3% drop.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8vWPOC?track_p_id=7iXcmKlh55kYX8_Rwh3ktBh" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/6UA9QhQYtdlCZ2VZsp0EIjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a separate report -</strong><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'Global Financial Stability Report'</strong></a> - <strong style="font-weight: bold">released Tuesday </strong>[more below], the IMF said government spending and other steps to boost coronavirus-stricken economies have limited immediate risks to global financial stability while fueling a debt buildup that could spell trouble later.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The Covid-19 pandemic</strong> could be a major resilience test for the global financial system,” IMF economists wrote in the Global Financial Stability Report.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Triggers such as new virus outbreaks,</strong> policy missteps, or other shocks could interact with pre existing vulnerabilities and tip the economy into a more adverse scenario.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Companies that borrowed heavily</strong> at low interest rates may have trouble paying their debts, the report said, increasing the risk of bankruptcies.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China,</strong> indebted local governments could limit the effectiveness of Beijing’s effort to provide credit to households and companies to counter the fallout of the pandemic, the IMF said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9DgjiK?track_p_id=08LmYMY_2HcId122tDZM2qB" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JP1QmQOh6Yp6KRdpIktROki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9DgjiK?track_p_id=6wkkaGC8LmYMY_iQIc2nykM" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">IMF: 'World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4qKDMe?track_p_id=9pMPXx1Qje7UPxuQ_mtrGlg" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1IWLRXT4TxlwukaG8h6RXTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">International Monetary Fund </strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gita Gopinath</strong> | Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, IMF</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow from 11 trillion over 2020–21 to 28 trillion over 2020–25.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><a href="Read the 'IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent'" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> the  IMF's 'World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent'</strong></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In our latest IMF October </strong><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">World Economic Outlook</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> we continue to project a deep recession in 2020.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Global growth</strong> is projected to be -4.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.8 percent compared to our June update.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This upgrade</strong> owes to somewhat less dire outcomes in the second quarter, as well as signs of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, offset partly by downgrades in some emerging and developing economies.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2021</strong> growth is projected to rebound to 5.2 percent, -0.2 percent below our June projection.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/58UXgm?track_p_id=7hEHh53J6QmE50_KfhSyfCg" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/fFsJH1zEW4ksSSxvB0Syazl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Except for China,</strong> where output is expected to exceed 2019 levels this year, output in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies is projected to remain below 2019 levels even next year.’  </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"> <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Countries</strong> that rely more on contact-intensive services and oil exporters face weaker recoveries compared to manufacturing-led economies.’  </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5Qes0u?track_p_id=cQD2LDKeC3fSl5HJi5G_ZdB" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/7OqzwSyfoaG_0MvlpUM_Wzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The divergence in income prospects</strong> between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (excluding China) triggered by this pandemic is projected to worsen.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are upgrading our forecast</strong> for advanced economies for 2020 to -5.8 percent, followed by a rebound in growth to 3.9 percent in 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For emerging market and developing countries (excluding China)</strong> we have a downgrade with growth projected to be -5.7 percent in 2020 and then a recovery to 5 percent in 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With this,</strong> the cumulative growth in per capita income for emerging-market and developing economies (excluding China) over 2020–21 is projected to be lower than that for advanced economies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This crisis</strong> will likely leave scars well into the medium term as labor markets take time to heal, investment is held back by uncertainty and balance sheet problems, and lost schooling impairs human capital.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After the rebound in 2021,</strong> global growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 percent into the medium term.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The cumulative loss in output</strong> relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow from 11 trillion over 2020–21 to 28 trillion over 2020–25.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This represents</strong> a severe setback to the improvement in average living standards across all country groups.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There remains tremendous uncertainty</strong> around the outlook with both downside and upside risks.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression,</strong> and it will take significant innovation on the policy front, at both the national and international levels to recover from this calamity.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5ipCL2?track_p_id=4dOLx8SSOy6_cPMOMbX2vnS" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JP1QmQOh6Yp6KRdpIktROki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5ipCL2?track_p_id=1a8SSOy6_uUWQiBzAhPUFjU" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">IMF: 'Global Financial Stability Report: Bridge to Recovery'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/60zWfA?track_p_id=4sVLY8QbjZe_3lFMvbD2qRm" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/m8vcOqN3zBOX0QHa25-DXzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">International Monetary Fund</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tobias Adrian</strong> | Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A disconnect persists, for example, between financial markets—where there have been rising stock market valuations (despite the recent repricing)—and the weak economic activity and uncertain outlook.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/10/13/global-financial-stability-report-october-2020" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> the  IMF's Global Financial Stability Report: Bridge to Recovery</strong></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite a global economic crisis</strong> comparable only to the Great Depression, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">near-term financial stability risks </a>have been contained with the help of unprecedented monetary policy easing and massive fiscal support across the globe.’ </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But many economies</strong> had pre-existing vulnerabilities—which are now intensifying, representing potential headwinds to the recovery.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Extraordinary policy measures</strong> have stabilized markets, boosted investors’ sentiment, and maintained the flow of credit to the global economy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Critically,</strong> these measures helped prevent a slowing economy and sliding financial markets from feeding on each other in a destructive vicious cycle.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The rebound in asset prices</strong> and the easing in global financial conditions have benefited not only advanced economies, but also emerging markets.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> unlike in previous crises, emerging markets this time were also able to respond by cutting policy rates, injecting liquidity and, for the first time, employing asset purchase programs.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The significant improvement</strong> in financial conditions has helped maintain the flow of credit to the economy, but the economic outlook remains highly uncertain.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A </strong><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/06/25/global-financial-stability-report-june-2020-update" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">disconnect</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> persists,</strong> for example, between financial markets—where there have been rising stock market valuations (despite the recent repricing)—and the weak economic activity and uncertain outlook.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This gap can gradually narrow</strong> if the economy recovers swiftly. But if the recovery is delayed, for example because it may take longer to get the virus under control, the investor optimism may wane.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5ipCL2?track_p_id=454Gs8SSOy6_H%401vNHgOygz" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/TBn3r5kd8cypdQzJTgnw3zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as investors</strong> believe that markets will continue to benefit from policy support, asset valuations may stay elevated for some time.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nonetheless,</strong> and especially if the economic recovery is delayed, there is a risk of a sharp adjustment in asset prices or periodic bouts of volatility.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The unprecedented scale</strong> of the pandemic crisis means that vulnerabilities have risen across multiple sectors.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The governments</strong> had to run larger fiscal deficits to be able to provide support to firms and households.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> banks and other financial institutions had to purchase more government bonds.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Going forward,</strong> the fiscal capacity to provide further support may become more limited.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">2. China, Trump, & Biden</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6J9qzI?track_p_id=6xzd3fJ9KmiEQ_YYKdKTegM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6J9qzI?track_p_id=8pA%40pv2239KmiEQ_Imz3%40kB" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘This is a guy who is a thug’: how US elite became hawks on Xi’s China </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6bKBJQ?track_p_id=2Cb4qM5mA_ByrTQEMfc4c%40X" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/y306IQ8lBu2hgdTYm2SVITl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Demetri Sevastopulo</strong> | FT</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Until the president stood up to Beijing, many people in Washington had assumed China was unstoppable." </strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of the main reasons</strong> for the escalation in the rivalry between the US and China over the past few years — which some now see as the start of a new cold war — has been the surge in scepticism about Beijing across America’s political elite.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In late 2017,</strong> the Trump administration signalled it would take a tougher approach when it described China as a “revisionist power” in its first national security review.’’ '</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “That was a huge shift in mentality</strong> that has tremendous bipartisan support,” says HR McMaster, who was Mr Trump’s national security adviser at the time.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Evan Medeiros,</strong> a former Obama administration White House Asia adviser, acknowledges that the label simply reflected the new reality in Washington.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “When the Trump administration</strong> framed the US-China relationship in terms of strategic competition, many Americans were there already. They just hadn’t given it a name,” says Mr Medeiros, who is a critic of how Mr Trump has handled China.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Trump opened the floodgates</strong> and people said it’s time to call a spade a spade.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “American elite and popular opinion</strong> has fundamentally changed. We have moved from balancing co-operation and competition, to competition and confrontation,” he adds.’ </li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6bKBJQ?track_p_id=dOdtPicVH6vYGN4qM5mA_UJ" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/M994euptApI2t_A1YkXx4jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This means</strong> that regardless of which candidate wins the election, the leader taking office in January will preside over a radically different US-China relationship than eight years ago, when Mr Biden and Mr Xi were both vice-presidents — or even four years ago.’ </p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “There is an existential competition</strong> between two countries with fundamentally different visions,” says Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican lawmaker and China hawk.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This is more complicated</strong> than the old cold war.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, after four turbulent years</strong> of relations during the Trump administration, there are very few subscribers to the theory that engagement with China will lead the country to become more liberal.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The responsible stakeholder era,</strong> which was a bipartisan approach, is over,” says Derek Chollet, a former Obama administration Pentagon and National Security Council official.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is also</strong> much less trust in Mr Xi.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2015</strong> he stood in the White House Rose Garden and promised Mr Obama that China would not militarise the artificial islands it was building in the South China Sea — but then proceeded to do exactly that at a fast pace.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More recently,</strong> the US has turned up the heat on China over its detention of an estimated 1m Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang region.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across the political elite,</strong> there is consensus that large parts of the technology sector should be off-limits for Chinese investment because of its potential for military or espionage use.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the Trump administration</strong> strong-armed allies to cancel contracts with Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei earlier this year — a form of pressure that would have been unthinkable a few years ago — there was little disagreement in Washington, even if some Democrats believe the Trump administration has pushed the idea of economic ‘decoupling’ too aggressively.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One senior Trump administration official</strong> says that until the president had stood up to Beijing, many people in Washington had assumed China was unstoppable and that US rhetoric and policy had developed a “defeatist smell”.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “You had senior US officials</strong> parroting Chinese Communist party jargon about a new type of great power relations that would allow for win-win solutions, by which they apparently meant China would win twice,” the official says.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some in the national security community</strong> fear this could lead to a Biden administration making too many compromises.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I don’t think anyone</strong> thinks we’re going to turn the clock back, even with a Biden administration,” says H.R. McMaster.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “But I am afraid</strong> that some Biden advisers will say we have to give on some things to get help from China on environmental issues.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mike Gallagher</strong> says there was a danger that Mr Biden would fall for the Chinese approach of dangling co-operation on climate as a “holistic bargaining chip” to get the US to take a softer approach on other issues.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “If Biden tries to go back</strong> to the status quo and take a more accommodative approach, he’s going to get mugged by reality.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether the superpower sparring</strong> escalates under whichever candidate wins will not just be a result of how these debates play out in Washington — it will also depend on how Beijing responds.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some American officials</strong> believe the Chinese government recognises it has pushed too far and helped produce a backlash in Washington.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Susan Shirk,</strong> chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, says the key is Mr Xi himself. While she is critical of the Trump administration, she also levels blame at the Chinese president.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The Chinese side brought a lot of it on themselves.</strong> I don’t think this is just dreamt up out of the forehead of McMaster or Matt Pottinger,” says Ms Shirk, referring to the current deputy national security adviser and China hawk.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “If the door is a little bit open,</strong> does Xi have the good sense to walk through?” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I’m always looking for evidence</strong> of restraint and flexibility . . . but mostly I see rigidity.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “He has a very poor understanding</strong> of the west.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6tUVdY?track_p_id=eBk3aHrSJt65fY37zviOc_J" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6tUVdY?track_p_id=dh3CjqDZhJjuGO7zviOc_jF" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China braced for lose-lose scenario as US election fuels unease</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">James Kynge</strong> | FT</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So ultimately, the question of whether Beijing would vote for Biden or Trump is easy to answer. It would choose neither.’</strong></em></h2><p style="text-align: left;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Who would China vote</strong> for in next month’s US presidential election?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China’s eyes,</strong> the choice between Mr Trump and Joe Biden, his Democratic party challenger, is stark.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump</strong> is expected to continue his hawkish policies towards Beijing, but the former vice-president’s inclination towards multilateralism raises the potential for greater co-operation with China, several analysts said.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Biden will have more platforms</strong> or channels to negotiate with China and we may see a less intense world,” said Wang Huiyao, an adviser to China’s state council or cabinet.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “For President Trump,</strong> I believe he will continue to be surrounded by very hawkish advisers on China and stimulate more negative policies and proposals on China,” added Mr Wang, who is also president of the Center for China and Globalization, a think-tank.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Wang said Mr Biden</strong> would reassert US leadership in the western world, bringing the US back into the Paris climate accord, the World Health Organization and possibly some international trade agreements as well.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But any accommodation towards China</strong> from a Biden administration would be shortlived, said Chen Zhiwu, a professor at Hong Kong University.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Chen agreed</strong> that Mr Biden would probably adopt a traditional American multilateral approach to foreign policy — in contrast to Mr Trump’s unilateral, “America First” agenda.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This difference in style</strong> would apply to and affect the US-China relationship,” said Mr Chen, who is also director of the Asia Global Institute, a think-tank.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “As a result, a Biden administration</strong> may make life easier for China in the first year or two, as it will take him some time to undo some of the changes made by the Trump administration, but it may present a tougher challenge to China in the longer-term,” Mr Chen added.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason behind such foreboding</strong> is that one of the stated intentions behind Mr Biden’s multilateralism is to counter China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Biden put it like this:</strong> “When we join together with fellow democracies, our strength more than doubles. China can’t afford to ignore more than half the global economy. That gives us substantial leverage to shape the rules of the road on everything from the environment to labour, trade, technology and transparency, so they continue to reflect democratic interests and values.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yu Jie, a senior fellow at Chatham House,</strong> a UK think-tank, thinks the prospects for US-China relations are bleak whoever wins.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Neither Biden nor Trump</strong> will run a ‘China-friendly’ policy after claiming victory,” Ms Yu said.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Yes, there are differences in style</strong> but less so in policy areas in terms of curbing China’s rise and in the overall direction of travel on Sino-US relations,” she said.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given this,</strong> some analysts think that four more years of Mr Trump might actually be preferred by the leadership of Xi Jinping, China’s president.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “A Trump victory</strong> would be dreadful for US-China relations but something of a gift for Mr Xi politically,” said Ms Yu.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The more the US demonises China,</strong> the more that Chinese citizens — even those who dislike Xi’s leadership — would rally behind him.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “And within the [Communist] party,</strong> anyone who dared to criticise Xi would be accused of kowtowing to foreign aggressors and thus effectively silenced.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ms Yu added:</strong> “Continuous China bashing from the Trump administration would completely eliminate the pro-US and less conservative voices within the Chinese political establishment.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Steve Tsang,</strong> director of the Soas China Institute in London, said: “Since Trump became president, he has done more than anyone, including Xi, toward making China great again and thus delivered what Xi wanted to achieve for China globally.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He added:</strong> “The balance of power in the world has swung more into China’s favour under Trump.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So ultimately,</strong> the question of whether Beijing would vote for Biden or Trump is easy to answer. It would choose neither.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">3. Shifting Supply Chains: Focus on Taiwan</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Bepxg?track_p_id=1I7Sn2xa_afGpxrCYBLcHBq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Bepxg?track_p_id=eETw2ySHosfdCsF7Sn2xa_Y" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan Manufacturing Leaving China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7Bepxg?track_p_id=7AFe45uv7Sn2xa_nIyoCyYq" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/v1GF1q76-ClldJb-AIiBsDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“My assumption is that Taiwan should become the co-ordinating centre in the global supply chain.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan</strong> has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of America’s growing wariness about doing business in China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Taiwanese government,</strong> long concerned about the country’s economic overdependence on China, has grabbed the opportunity and has offered subsidies for Taiwanese companies that bring some operations back home.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under that initiative,</strong> Taipei has registered more than NT$1.12tn ($39bn) in investment commitments over the past two years.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Manufacturers of telecom networking gear,</strong> servers and integrated circuits have been among the largest projects committed.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwanese companies,</strong> among the earliest and largest investors in China, began to adjust their manufacturing set-up as early as 15 years ago when labour started becoming scarce in the coastal regions where most foreign investment is concentrated.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Footwear, accessories,</strong> toy and furniture manufacturers began moving to countries in south-east Asia such as Vietnam and Cambodia more than a decade ago.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the past few years,</strong> Taiwanese companies have been selling manufacturing assets in China to Chinese competitors at an increasing pace. Those deals include:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the recent acquisition</strong> of a China-based plant of smartphone case maker Casetek by Chinese company Lens for NT$43.3bn,’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the sale of two China plants</strong> of Taiwan iPhone supplier Wistron to China’s Luxshare, and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the transfer of China assets</strong> of Apple earphone maker Merry to Luxshare. “Luxshare has become a mini-Foxconn.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A lot of this activity</strong> is happening because of the reshuffling of the supply chain,” says CY Huang, a Taiwanese investment banker and adviser on a number of deals which have contributed to disentangling global supply chains from China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “These companies</strong> are all suppliers of Apple, and Apple is now separating its supply chain for China and non-China.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Huang</strong> believes even Foxconn, the $178bn Taiwanese company which makes the iPhone and just about every other tech gadget and which has a workforce of close to 1m in China, might at some point have to sell its massive China-based assembly plants.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “In the future,</strong> Apple wants to delegate supplying of the China market to Chinese suppliers. The other markets in the world can be handled by Taiwanese suppliers,” he says.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In any case, ‘Foxconn</strong> says it expects manufacturing to fragment into a China supply chain and several others for the rest of the world.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From the US to Japan to Europe to Australia,</strong> governments are pondering how to bring production of crucial items such as personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals back home. That pressure is already forcing a shift in manufacturing orders.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Wistron Medical Technology,</strong> a subsidiary of the Taiwanese contract electronics manufacturer, says it so far handles 70 per cent of its production out of its factory in the Chinese city of Chongqing and only the remaining 30 per cent out of Taiwan.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “But for our largest order,</strong> which is from the US government, we have already been notified that the next batch can no longer come out of China,” says Brian Chuang, vice-president.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “That shift</strong> will push China-based production under 50 per cent in our overall manufacturing balance.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Huang,</strong> the Taiwanese investment banker, last month launched an initiative called Re!Chain aimed at helping Taiwanese companies reinvent themselves amid the rapid change.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He is bringing together enterprises</strong> including Fair Friend Group, the world’s third-largest machine tool maker, WPG, the world’s largest integrated circuit distributor, and Teco, Taiwan’s largest automation provider.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead of offering cheap manufacturing services in China,</strong> he expects them to manage smart global supply chains with the help of automation, AI and blockchain.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “My assumption is that Taiwan</strong> should become the co-ordinating centre in the global supply chain,” he says.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7TpAHo?track_p_id=8BUZtKCbi8sc1ZW_e%40VToJa" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7TpAHo?track_p_id=3P3u8sc1ZW_mmfBoiKYqpDi" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Supply Chain Snapshot: Moving Industrial Clusters Out Of China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7TpAHo?track_p_id=7mGFe3v28sc1ZW_63XSlwZp" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lxDgKz4nKEkKA2IwyHLBOzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; font-family:Georgia,serif!important;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I will replicate those Chinese industrial clusters elsewhere.”</strong></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Earlier this year,</strong> four dozen lawyers, accountants and bankers from all over Latin America piled into a conference room in an office tower on Miami Waterfront.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They listened spellbound as </strong><a href="https://www.pamirlaw.com/team-member/nicholas-v-chen/" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nicholas Chen</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> founder of the <a href="https://www.pamirlaw.com/" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Pamir Law Group</a> in Taipei, an energetic lawyer who had come all the way from Taiwan, told them about an exodus of manufacturing from China that could make them rich.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The tsunami waters</strong> are flowing outward now,” Mr Chen said to the assembled audience.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pointing to the US trade war with China,</strong> he said many companies were having second thoughts about maintaining operations in the Asian country.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Huge numbers of China-located companies</strong> are shifting their purchase orders, manufacturing capacities and operations out of China,” he claimed.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This can become your El Dorado!”</strong> — a reference to the mythical gold treasure that drove generations of explorers to Latin America.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Mr Chen</strong> knows how to make a good pitch.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Starting in the early 1990s,</strong> the Chinese American lawyer helped hundreds of companies from Taiwan, a hub of manufacturing for electronics and other industries, to set up shop in Suzhou — a city just outside Shanghai in Jiangsu province.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The influx made Suzhou</strong> one of the largest clusters of Taiwanese manufacturing in China, with more than 11,000 companies and cumulative investment of more than $30bn as of 2018.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They were part of a force</strong> that transformed China into an export machine supplying the whole world — until now.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those same supply chains</strong> are now at the centre of a tug-of-war that has huge implications for the future of the global economy and for geopolitics.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Chen</strong> is now planning to return to the China-based industrial parks which he helped fill up more than 30 years ago — to convince companies to build additional production facilities in new countries.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I will replicate</strong> those industrial clusters elsewhere,” he says.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Chen</strong> believes northern Mexico’s time has come.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It was still cheaper</strong> to manufacture in China 10 years ago than in maquiladoras,” he recalls, in a reference to Mexico’s export processing factories.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lXQzKH0_EjD40mFqXD3AJTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to Mr Chen,</strong> industrial park managers from Nuevo Leon, a Mexican state bordering Texas, used to try to convince him to bring over companies from China, but could never match the cost structure that China offered.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Now I’m telling them</strong> that you still can’t come up with that number, but you don’t have to, because they have had the trade war, cost increases and Covid, so their number changed. Do you still want to talk now?” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

Happy Double Ten Day!

10/10/2020

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: inherit;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>October 10, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Happy Double Ten Day!</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.1px;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Happy Double Ten Day!</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">October 10: Republic of China National Day</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Taiwan President Tsai Vows to Defend Taiwan, Calls for Dialogue With China</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Taiwan Could Do With An Actual National Day</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Strait Shooting: Defending Taiwan Is Growing Costlier And Deadlier</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. The National Security Law's Chilling Effect on Hong Kong</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. China & America Due For A Rebranding</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Views of Both US and China Largely Negative Across Advanced Economies in 2020</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries </strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Happy Double Ten Day!</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">October 10</strong> (10-10, or ‘Double Ten’) is Taiwan’s National Day.</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Or more accurately </strong>the National Day of the Republic of China, as Taiwan is officially known, since ‘October 10’ refers to the Wuchang Uprising on October 10, 1911, which led to the founding of the ROC.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When the ROC government </strong>fled to Taiwan in 1949 after its defeat by the Chinese Communists, it brought the National Day with them.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And today this highlights</strong> the tension between that history and those who affirm their Taiwan identity.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A recent editorial</strong> in the <em style="font-style: italic">Taiwan News </em>notes:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Double Ten</strong> — like so many other things in Taiwan — was forced onto the people by the KMT [the Kuomingtang, the Nationalist Party that long controlled the ROC before it became a democracy] in an attempt to erase Taiwanese identity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just a few other examples</strong> include the Republic of China name, the ROC national anthem, the ROC flag, the coerced use of Mandarin, and the learning of Chinese over Taiwanese history.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite all these efforts, </strong>the Taiwanese persevered and built the country into the fully functioning democracy it is today.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To us in the West,</strong> this is sounding like a lot of inside baseball.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In fact</strong> I found scant coverage of Taiwan’s National Day in the western media.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And that represents </strong>a dangerous neglect.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How Taiwan politics</strong> goes so goes to some significant degree the chances of war between China and Taiwan, and in turn China and the U.S.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Though the West </strong>may be pretty ho-hum about Taiwan politics, you can be sure that Xi Jinping is watching every machination.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Any move toward,</strong> say, declaring Taiwan’s independence (as the editorial writer seems to be implicitly calling for), could persuade him that the time to attack and ‘reunify’ is now.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That of course</strong> would force the U.S. to abandon its policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ for real and decide if it will go to war with China to defend Taiwan.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If it doesn’t,</strong> America cedes a democratic ally to China and with it the confidence of its other Asian allies.</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If it does,</strong> it’s in for a heck of fight. But as The Economist states so pointedly, <em style="font-style: italic">‘The question is whether America has the stomach for this.’</em></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen </strong>addressed the nation on October 10, she must have had somewhere in her mind the thought that ‘Whew, we made it through another year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And no little trepidation</strong> about the year to come.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bottom line:</strong> To understand the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, understand Taiwan politics.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also today an update</strong> on the impact of Hong Kong’s National Security Law.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fewer than 30 people</strong> have been charged under the law in its first 100 days in effect.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But as MERICS</strong> points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across the board,</strong> the chilling effect of the National Security Law on criticism, academic debates, civil rights advocacy, and international engagement is already clearly visible.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally, two reports</strong> from the Pew Research Center.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here are just a couple </strong>of the many, often unexpected, findings.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Early on in the pandemic</strong> there was much handwringing about how China would take advantage of its early recovery to expand its soft power through unselfish assistance to other countries still suffering from the disease.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Turns out</strong> those fears were misplaced.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Through supplying defective equipment,</strong> carrying out Wolf Warrior diplomacy, becoming more assertive in Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and the Sino-Indian border, and on and on, China quickly blotted its international copybook.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pew polling</strong> found that as a result:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Views of China</strong> have grown more negative in recent years across many advanced economies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfavorable opinion</strong> has soared over the past year, a new 14-country Pew Research Center survey shows.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> a majority in each of the surveyed countries has an unfavorable opinion of China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not unexpectedly,</strong> the U.S. doesn’t fare much better:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On most measures</strong> included in the survey, people are even more critical of the U.S. than of China – though more still have favorable opinions of the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Looks as though</strong> each nation is in need of some serious rebranding.</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong> </p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">1. Happy Double Ten Day!</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4nfnBQ?track_p_id=5hJX6W7RvSYQ_Hbrxg3nVWS" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/scNTZXV0haVRXGWulHuCvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4nfnBQ?track_p_id=7YWmT1w27RvSYQ_1W6AuRl4" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">October 10: Republic of China National Day </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4nfnBQ?track_p_id=b%40urdadZPWFo7RvSYQ_2HRw" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/_JP0RutIXCtmVmWRUpIJdTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Chinese character for 10 is '十'.  So, '十十' becomes 'Double Ten' or '雙十.'</strong></p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since the government of the Republic of China moved to Taiwan in 1949 following its defeat by the China Communists, celebrations have been held every year on October 10th.’ </strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The </strong><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/1911%E5%B9%B4" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1911 The </strong></a><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AD%A6%E6%98%8C%E8%B5%B7%E7%BE%A9" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wuchang Uprising</strong></a> was launched <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/10%E6%9C%8810%E6%97%A5" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">on October 10th</a>.’ [10-10, hence Double Ten]</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Wuchang Uprising</strong> was the beginning of the <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%BE%9B%E4%BA%A5%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">Revolution of 1911.</a>’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Within two months after the incident,</strong> <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">revolutionary</a> actions <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">in</a> various parts of <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">China</a> succeeded one after another and finally succeeded in overthrowing the <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B8%85%E6%9C%9D" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Qing Dynasty</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912%E5%B9%B4" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On </strong></a><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%83%E6%97%A6" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Year's Day</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> in </strong><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912%E5%B9%B4" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1912,</strong></a> the <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">Republic of China was</a> established , becoming the first universally recognized <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%B1%E5%92%8C%E5%9C%8B" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">republic in </a><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9D%B1%E4%BA%9E" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">East Asia</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This day is one</strong> of the <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%AF%80%E6%97%A5%E8%88%87%E6%AD%B2%E6%99%82%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">national anniversaries </a>of the Republic of <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%AF%80%E6%97%A5%E8%88%87%E6%AD%B2%E6%99%82%E5%88%97%E8%A1%A8" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">China</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since </strong><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">the government of the Republic of China</strong></a> moved to <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%BA%E7%81%A3" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Taiwan</a> in 1949 following its defeat by the China Communists, <a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B7%A1%E9%81%8A" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">celebrations</a> have been held every year on October 10th.’ </p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/55q7VY?track_p_id=aelRzjl5ivi8QKSgo_qFwZ6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/mLyLyX9TcHZlEMVhXOgHNEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/55q7VY?track_p_id=08QKSgo_E1SWXSGIEc1C1ov" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan President Tsai Vows to Defend Taiwan, Calls for Dialogue With China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/55q7VY?track_p_id=8WuTzl1ot8QKSgo_A3EauUA" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/mgsFCkwsYvb5W7o7J10BMjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Reuters</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “Our commitment to our sovereignty and democratic values will not change."</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Speaking at National Day celebrations,</strong> Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen described the situation in the Taiwan Strait as “quite tense.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This, along with disputes</strong> in the South China Sea, a China-India border conflict and China’s crackdown in Hong Kong, showed democracy and peace in the region were facing big challenges, she said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Tsai said</strong> she was committed to maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait, but that this was the responsibility of both sides.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Still, she has made strengthening Taiwan’s armed forces</strong> a priority, and said she would keep pushing this, upholding the principle of neither seeking war nor fearing it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Our commitment</strong> to our sovereignty and democratic values will not change, but we will also maintain strategic flexibility and be responsive to changes,” she said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5O0Rpg?track_p_id=96lcDaolEo7g3qUI_bnN4Yw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KvjDPvWJteyVoweUX-knBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5O0Rpg?track_p_id=eGzjuJvLgCfGb5v7g3qUI_D" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan Could Do With An Actual National Day</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Taiwan News</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Double Ten — like so many other things in Taiwan — was forced onto the people by the KMT in an attempt to erase Taiwanese identity.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Double Ten</strong>, as it is commonly referred to, commemorates the start of the Wuchang Uprising in China on Oct. 10, 1911, which led to the end of the Qing Dynasty (1636–1912) and the establishment of the Republic of China (ROC) on Jan. 1, 1912.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese Nationalist Party,</strong> also known as the Kuomintang (KMT), was around in 1912, but did not become the sole ruling party in China until Oct. 10, 1919.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The KMT</strong> ruled the country until the Chinese Civil War broke out between the nationalists and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which saw on-again, off-again fighting from 1927 to 1949.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The KMT</strong> was eventually defeated by the CCP in 1949 and fled to Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> when it comes to Taiwan history, what was happening in 1911? Not the Wuchang Uprising.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 1911,</strong> that would put Taiwan smack dab in the Japanese occupation, which lasted from 1895 to 1945.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Double Ten</strong> — like so many other things in Taiwan — was forced onto the people by the KMT in an attempt to erase Taiwanese identity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just a few other examples</strong> include the Republic of China name, the ROC national anthem, the ROC flag, the coerced use of Mandarin, and the learning of Chinese over Taiwanese history.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite all these efforts, </strong>the Taiwanese persevered and built the country into the fully functioning democracy it is today.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in order for Taiwan</strong> to continue to grow as a free, open, and inclusive society, it’s time for us to finally put to rest all this Republic of China nonsense and the baggage that comes with it like Double Ten.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">2. Strait Shooting</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5gAm9o?track_p_id=5De%40Dj8YtR42_VwKTM2diyZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5gAm9o?track_p_id=52o5nf8YtR42_QsRKDetzcf" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 1 | Defending Taiwan Is Growing Costlier And Deadlier</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Alas, Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s Communist Party claims Taiwan,</strong> a democratic and prosperous country of 24m people, although the island has not been ruled from the mainland since 1949.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A tense peace</strong> is maintained as long as Taiwan continues to say that it is part of China, even if not part of the People’s Republic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China once hoped</strong> that reunification could be achieved bloodlessly through growing economic and cultural ties.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But two-thirds of Taiwanese</strong> no longer identify as Chinese, and 60% have an unfavourable view of China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In January Tsai Ing-wen</strong> of the Democratic Progressive Party was resoundingly re-elected as president over a China-friendly rival.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year Xi Jinping,</strong> China’s leader, declared unification to be an “inevitable requirement for the historical rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PLA has stepped up pressure</strong> on Taiwan in recent months, sending warplanes across the “median line” that long served as an unofficial maritime boundary and holding large naval drills off several parts of Taiwan’s coast.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Defending Taiwan</strong> is growing ever harder.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A decade ago</strong> China had four times as many warships as Taiwan. Today it has six times as many.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has six times</strong> the number of warplanes and eight times as many tanks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s defence budget,</strong> merely double Taiwan’s at the end of the 1990s, is now 25 times greater (see chart).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7Vqn6j4DpizZ65T3tCGxDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American intelligence officials</strong> do not think that China is about to unleash this firepower.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PLA’s amphibious fleet</strong> has grown slowly in recent years.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> has never held even a single exercise on the scale that would be required for a d-Day-type campaign.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> no country has assaulted a well-defended shore since America did so in Korea—with good reason.’ [MacArthur’s Inchon landing during the Korean War]</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although China</strong> could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force, says William Murray of the US Naval War College, the island would still be able to fire anti-ship missiles at an invading armada, picking out targets with mobile radar units hidden in the mountainous interior.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That could make mincemeat</strong> of big ships crossing a narrow strait (see map).’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The PLA </strong>can’t use precision weapons to attack small, mobile things,” says Ethan Lee, who as chief of general staff at Taiwan’s defence ministry in 2017-19 developed a strategy for asymmetrical warfare.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/5Cvm8fNqzdHrjSHalrwd0Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even so, Taiwan’s preparedness</strong> and its will to fight both look shaky.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The sad truth</strong> is that Taiwan’s army has trouble with training across the board,” says Tanner Greer, an analyst.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite long-standing efforts</strong> to make the island indigestible, Taiwan’s armed forces are still overinvested in warplanes and tanks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Less than half of Taiwanese</strong> polled in August evinced a willingness to fight if war came.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And only a fifth</strong> of people think war will come.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwanese officials</strong> acknowledge these grim trends.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many insiders</strong> are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5yL6Tw?track_p_id=4oj4s7uEOgI_4YQxCdIFpdJ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5yL6Tw?track_p_id=ciclpreV6U3HF7uEOgI_Cjb" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 2 | Defending Taiwan Is Growing Costlier And Deadlier</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5yL6Tw?track_p_id=9cdIomVICP7uEOgI_SlJTuS" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Dx4l5jMktbqI11wQrmI9xTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The question is whether America has the stomach for this.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A vital question </strong>is therefore whether Americans would defend Taiwan, for the sake of a distant country whose defence spending has fallen steadily as a share of GDP over two decades.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America</strong> does not have a formal alliance with Taiwan.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it sells the island weapons</strong>—$13bn-worth over the past four years—and has long implied that it would help repel an invasion if Taiwan had not provoked one.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the same trend</strong> that imperils Taiwan in the first place—China’s growing military power—also raises the price of American involvement.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In wargames</strong> set five or more years in the future, “the United States starts losing people and hardware in the theatre very quickly,” says David Ochmanek of the RANDCorporation, a think-tank.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Surface combatants</strong> tend to stay far from the fight, forward air bases get heavily attacked and we’re unable to project power sufficiently into the battlespace to defeat the invasion.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In another wargame </strong>conducted earlier this year, the Centre for a New American Security (cnas), another think-tank, assumed that Taiwan would fight tenaciously and that America would have access to weapons still under development.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Under those rosier circumstances,</strong> the island survives—at least after ten notional days of combat—but even then only at huge cost.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The seas around Taiwan</strong> would look “like no-man’s-land at the Somme”, notes Christopher Dougherty of CNAS.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American losses</strong> in the CNAS wargame amount to a hundred or so aircraft, dozens of ships and perhaps a couple of carriers.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “An aircraft-carrier</strong> has 5,000 people on it,” says Mr Murray. “That’s 100 voters in every state of our union. That’s a lot of funerals.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Escalation</strong> might go even further.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The fact that Chinese nuclear missiles</strong> can now reach any American city raises the stakes dramatically.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “When the bullets really start flying,”</strong> says Michael Hunzeker of George Mason University, “the American people, most of whom can’t find Taiwan on a map, will be hard-pressed to say, ‘No, I’m really willing to trade Los Angeles for Taipei.’ ”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The question</strong> is whether America has the stomach for this.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">3. The National Security Law's Chilling Effect on Hong Kong</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GVQo4?track_p_id=3z%40I97fIUw_LagUSeHLAwtD" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ohddhZS_FxQLYTIJ6GKMLUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GVQo4?track_p_id=23d97fIUw_6RaIMnBg6h1oA" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Transforming Hong Kong, One Day At A Time</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MERICS </strong>| Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, Berlin</h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Katja Drinhausen </strong>| MERICS</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across the board, the chilling effect of the National Security Law on criticism, academic debates, civil rights advocacy, and international engagement is already clearly visible.’</strong></em> </h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘October 8 marked 100 days</strong> since the introduction of the National Security Law for Hong Kong (HKNSL).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Beijing’s eyes, </strong>the introduction of the much-contested law has been a complete success.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They still hold</strong> that the law only targets an “extremely small minority” of violent offenders – after all, less than 30 people have been arrested so far for violating the HKNSL.’  </p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> it was clear from the start that, by design, <a href="https://merics.org/en/opinion/eradicating-hong-kongs-political-virus" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">the law can be used to target a wide range of opposition and resistance to</a> the party-state’s encroachments on Hong Kong’s liberties.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the law</strong> has only been directly applied in a limited number of individual cases, the indirect effects of both its vaguely worded stipulations and accompanying measures taken by the Hong Kong administration have been severe.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across the board,</strong> the chilling effect on criticism, academic debates, civil rights advocacy, and international engagement is already clearly visible.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both Chief Executive Carrie Lam</strong> and mainland officials have made clear that <a href="https://hongkongfp.com/2020/09/01/no-separation-of-powers-in-hong-kong-says-chief-exec-carrie-lam-despite-previous-comments-from-top-judges/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">separation of powers has no place in Hong Kong</a>, as it cannot be reconciled with the executive-led governing system.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This speaks</strong> to a climate where fundamental principles of rule of law and judicial independence are under threat.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Courts are struggling </strong>to reconcile the HKNSL with the protection of civil and political rights granted to Hongkongers through the Basic Law and international treaties.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After the victory of the pro-democratic camp</strong> in Hong Kong’s local elections late last year, a number of steps seem to take aim at ensuring they will not succeed in the next LegCo election, which has been postponed for a year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A number of pro-democracy candidates</strong> have already been excluded; more will likely follow as <a href="https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202007/30/P2020073000481.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">“objection in principle” to the HKNSL</a> has been made a basis for exclusion.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The education system</strong> is being <a href="https://merics.org/en/opinion/hong-kong-first-repress-then-remold" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">brought into line</a> as well.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Libraries have removed books</strong> by pro-democracy activists, and references to separation of power and civil disobedience have been deleted from schoolbooks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The </strong><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education/article/3104436/freedom-speech-or-hong-kong-independence-more-details" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">first teacher was deregistered</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> and barred from his job for life, for discussing pro-independence positions in the classroom. His superiors were sanctioned too, sending a clear signal to all administrators.’   </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Independent media coverage</strong> has also been curtailed by measures such as the Hong Kong police <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/23/hong-kong-police-tighten-control-on-media-with-new-accreditation-rules" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">restricting access for certain media outlets</a>.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘International journalists </strong>attempting to join critical media organizations have been denied visas.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The relative tranquility</strong> on the surface should not be taken as a sign of support for the new law, as further conflict may be fomenting beneath.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite risks</strong> posed by the HKNSL, there has been substantial and sustained pushback over the past months.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has been well noted</strong> by the party leadership.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Chinese National Day,</strong> Luo Huining, Beijing’s chief representative in the city, reminded Hongkongers, that “patriotism is not a choice, but a duty”.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the Chinese leadership’s definition,</strong> loving the country is inseparable from loving the Chinese Communist Party and supporting its hold on power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He called for students and civil servants</strong> to be the first to receive patriotic education.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But hopes that the government</strong> can remold people’s minds and instill patriotic fervor in Hong Kongers with education alone are unrealistic.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://merics.org/en/opinion/hong-kong-first-repress-then-remold" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Identification as a Chinese has fallen to a low point over the past decade, especially in younger demographics.</strong></a>– Beijing’s increasingly authoritarian approach has broadened the divide for young Hongkongers brought up in a liberal environment.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a gap</strong> that will be hard to bridge.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">4. China & America Due For A Rebranding</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/790PmS?track_p_id=adkgXjKxCQx4sxXcE_wdrlb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/6QbcN6nrGklGo7l6A7-aLEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/790PmS?track_p_id=duGrRnA3Z4kro44sxXcE_zh" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Views of Both US and China Largely Negative Across Advanced Economies in 2020</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pew Research Center</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Negative views</strong> of the United States and China have soared in many countries over the past year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In most of 14 advanced economies </strong>surveyed between June and August 2020, unfavorable views of both countries are at or near historic highs in Pew Research Center’s decade or more of polling on the issue.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Few in the countries</strong> surveyed have confidence in the leader of either the U.S. or China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many are critical</strong> of how both countries have handled the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">coronavirus outbreak</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On most measures</strong> included in the survey, people are even more critical of the U.S. than of China – though more still have favorable opinions of the U.S.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here are four key findings</strong> comparing the two countries’ global image.’</p><h4 style="display: block;margin-top: 1.5em;margin-bottom: 0.25em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: bold;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;border-bottom: 2px solid #c80000;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘1. Most people have unfavorable views of both China and the U.S. – but more see the U.S. favorably. </strong></span></h4><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A majority of people</strong> in every country surveyed have a negative view of China.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Outside the U.S.,</strong> South Korea and Japan, the same is true of the United States.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, in most countries </strong>surveyed, views of the U.S. are more favorable than views of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In South Korea and Japan</strong> – two formal allies of the U.S. that neighbor China – this gap is more than 30 percentage points.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7RAk6a?track_p_id=4Ud4v63cquk_jl3UEDqdIqL" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/2Nl5JN94nhm_Po2WSYYJLzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><br></p><h4 style="display: block;margin-top: 1.5em;margin-bottom: 0.25em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: bold;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;border-bottom: 2px solid #c80000;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘2. Most people rate China more positively than the U.S. in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.’ </strong></span></h4><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across the 14 countries surveyed,</strong> few praise China’s response to COVID-19, with a median of 37% saying it has done a good job dealing with the outbreak.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, in all countries</strong> except Japan and the U.S. itself, people are much more complimentary of China’s response than that of the U.S.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Japan,</strong> fewer than one-in-five praise either country.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The gap is largest in Italy,</strong> where 51% say China has done a good job compared with 18% who say the same of the U.S., a difference of 33 percentage points.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gaps of around 30 points</strong> exist across most of the Western European countries surveyed.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7jL4Qi?track_p_id=a2CrxEahIiC5k6vio_1y2em" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/9fRBurbRmdDpnBYKZCGiBDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><br></p><h4 style="display: block;margin-top: 1.5em;margin-bottom: 0.25em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: bold;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;border-bottom: 2px solid #c80000;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'3. Few have confidence in either country’s president – but across much of Western Europe, more have confidence in China’s Xi Jinping.'</strong></span></h4><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Across 14 countries surveyed,</strong> including the U.S., a median of 19% say they have confidence in President Xi, and a median of 17% say the same of President Donald Trump.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'No more than three-in-ten</strong> in any country but the U.S. say they have confidence in either one of the leaders (in the U.S., 43% have confidence in Trump, though partisans differ widely in their assessments).'</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In six countries, </strong>similarly low numbers of people express confidence in either leader.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But in six Western European countries</strong> where the ratings of the two leaders differ, Xi tends to come out on top.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'For example,</strong> in Belgium, 22% say they have confidence in Xi while only 9% say the same of Trump. Only in Japan and the U.S. itself do more people have confidence in Trump than Xi.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/81VOkq?track_p_id=7wsySvGK83gNu2_kZnUXItU" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/k66gym4Dq-mlWUvmBQTfDTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><br></p><h4 style="display: block;margin-top: 1.5em;margin-bottom: 0.25em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: bold;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;border-bottom: 2px solid #c80000;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘4. More see China as the world’s leading economic power than the U.S.’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> </span></h4><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In every European country surveyed,</strong> a plurality or majority say China is the top economy in the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Only in South Korea, Japan and the U.S.</strong> itself do more people name the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across Europe,</strong> these ratings <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/12/05/views-of-the-balance-of-power-between-u-s-and-china-2019/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">are largely unchanged since 2019</a> despite the major changes in the global economy brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Western Europeans</strong> have generally considered China’s economy to be the strongest worldwide in recent years, even while people in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East – <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/30/the-coronavirus-pandemics-impact-on-pew-research-centers-global-polling/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">none of which were surveyed this year</a>– have often named the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/2dRvL1e81fsgrgBf-DgEDzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#ffffff;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0;background-color:#f5f5f5"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Jfj4y?track_p_id=8E6vsW3PP5XYBDS_lLYqCWY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/6QbcN6nrGklGo7l6A7-aLEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Jfj4y?track_p_id=3bCL5XYBDS_hGHmYJBQwgZl" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pew Research Center</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfavorable opinion of China has soared over the past year.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Views of China</strong> have grown more negative in recent years across many advanced economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfavorable opinion</strong> has soared over the past year, a new 14-country Pew Research Center survey shows.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> a majority in each of the surveyed countries has an unfavorable opinion of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And in Australia,</strong> the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United States, South Korea, Spain and Canada, negative views have reached their highest points since the Center began polling on this topic more than a decade ago.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Negative views of China</strong> increased most in Australia, where 81% now say they see the country unfavorably, up 24 percentage points since last year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the UK,</strong> around three-quarters now see the country in a negative light – up 19 points.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, </strong><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/21/u-s-views-of-china-increasingly-negative-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/pg_2020-04-21_u-s-views-china_0-01/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">in the U.S.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> negative views of China have increased nearly 20 percentage points since President Donald Trump took office, rising 13 points since just last year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8bq3P6?track_p_id=5Faugt8gubUM_StQ11IyeaC" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/ysx0S4eQalSzRVbkeklSaDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The rise in unfavorable views</strong> comes amid widespread criticism over how China has handled the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">coronavirus pandemic</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Across the 14 nations surveyed,</strong> a median of 61% say China has done a bad job dealing with the outbreak.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is many more</strong> than say the same of the way the COVID-19 pandemic was handled by <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/08/27/most-approve-of-national-response-to-covid-19-in-14-advanced-economies/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">their own country</a>or by <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/pg_2020-09-15_u-s-image_0-02/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;">international organizations like the World Health Organization or the European Union</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Only the U.S.</strong> receives more negative evaluations from the surveyed publics, with a median of 84% saying the U.S. has handled the coronavirus outbreak poorly.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8u0NjE?track_p_id=864zjuSBi7hsqWU_VZN4ucM" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Qa-8LLRX3709LDRYAilW2jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Disapproval of how China</strong> has handled the COVID-19 pandemic also colors people’s confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A median of 78%</strong> say they have not too much or no confidence in him to do the right thing regarding world affairs, including at least seven-in-ten in every country surveyed.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This lack of confidence in Xi</strong> is at historic highs in every country for which trend data is available except Japan and Spain.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In most countries,</strong> the percent saying they have not too much or no confidence in him has grown by double digits since last year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> in the Netherlands, whereas around half distrusted Xi last year, today 70% say the same – up 17 percentage points.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, even as concerns about Xi rise,</strong> in most countries, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/06/negative-views-of-both-us-and-china-amid-covid-19" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">more have faith in President Xi</a> than in President Trump.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> in Germany, 78% say they have no confidence in Xi – but 89% say the same of Trump.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Still, while Xi’s global image</strong> is somewhat better than Trump’s, it nonetheless is significantly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/pg_2020-09-15_u-s-image_0-05/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">worse than several of the other world leaders</a> asked about, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/YzZnXFRDq4LdIlwL89V-cDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/EdQ8sy_CNOL4U-IOGh5o4jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#ffffff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

'This is Going to Change the Face of Asia.'

10/7/2020

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background-color:#FFFFFF;"><tbody><tr><td><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: inherit;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>October 7, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="Malcolm_Riddell" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:28px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">'This is Going to Change the Face of Asia.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.1px;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s</strong> issue:</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Rivers of Iron’: Changing the Face of Asia, an interview with Mike Lampton</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. To Understand U.S. Policy Toward China, Look at Congress Too</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The China Deep Dive: A Report on the Intelligence Community’s Capabilities and Competencies with Respect to the People’s Republic of China’ from the House Intelligence Committee.</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China Task Force Report’ from the House Republican China Task Force.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Chart: China’s Gigantic Agricultural Production </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. China: An Uneven Economic Recovery</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Maybe because</strong> I used to be in the business of spying on China, I found the House Intelligence Committee’s ‘The China Deep Dive’ report especially disturbing.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It’s subtitled</strong> ‘A Report on the Intelligence Community’s Capabilities and Competencies with Respect to the People’s Republic of China’ – and it’s scary.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In an essay in Foreign Affairs,</strong> Adam Schiff, chair of the committee, in outlining the report’s conclusions, says:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What we </strong>found was unsettling.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our nation’s intelligence agencies</strong> are not ready—not by a long shot.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Absent a significant realignment</strong> in resources and organization, the United States will be ill-prepared to compete with China on the global stage for decades to come.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Going forward,</strong> if we fail to accurately predict and characterize Beijing’s intent, we will continue to struggle to understand how and why the leadership of the CCP makes decisions and fail to respond effectively.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When I worked</strong> in China Operations in the East Asia Division at the CIA in the ‘70s and ‘80s, we were the poor step-child of the massive Soviet-Eastern European Division.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Since leaving the Agency</strong> and given the rise of China as a threat to the U.S., I had assumed that those entities had switched in size and resources - and effectiveness.</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Apparently </strong>I was wrong – and that should concern us all.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also in today's issue, </strong>a new item to put on your radar. David Lampton in our interview about his upcoming book, <em style="font-style: italic">Rivers of Iron</em>, says:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China in conjunction</strong> with seven Southeast Asian countries is building a high speed and conventional rail system that will knit China, particularly Southern China, into the Southeast Asian economic network.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'This is happening, </strong>and it's going to be transformative.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's going to be messy.</strong> It is messy. It's going to be ugly. People are going to get hurt.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘But this is going</strong> to change the face of Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And something</strong> I found out that I didn't know was the size and diversity of China's agriculture industry. For example, China is the biggest producer in the world of:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">peanuts</strong> (37%),</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">rice</strong> (29%)</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">wheat</strong> (19%)</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And,</strong> the second-biggest producer of <strong style="font-weight: bold">corn</strong> (22%) behind the United States and of <strong style="font-weight: bold">cotton </strong>(23%) behind India.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally, CreditSuisse</strong> has put out a full and excellent analysis of the global economy. About China it says:</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has been recovering,</strong> but unevenly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Production-side indicators</strong> have rebounded faster than expenditure-side indicators.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is also noticeable unevenness</strong> within the expenditure side.'</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Infrastructure and real estate sectors</strong> have benefited disproportionately from the stimulus.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But private manufacturing,</strong> services, and parts of the household sector have lagged due to fragmented credit allocation mechanisms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We view the divergence</strong> between production and expenditure as the key downside risk to our annual outlook.’</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong> </p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">1. The Interview | Mike Lampton</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5j4fL6?track_p_id=5w3pvf8poDb4_rHnciTep34" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5j4fL6?track_p_id=6yDfdMq8poDb4_LR5g2jS6a" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Rivers of Iron': Changing the Face of Asia</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5j4fL6?track_p_id=dFs3exPQguHmGh8poDb4_5c" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/dBHNezD07nTCIxQPwc64qjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Lampton</strong> | School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is going to change the face of Asia.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><a href="https://www.chinadebate.com/interview/mike-lampton-oct-7" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read Mike’s full interview here – fascinating and important.</strong></a></h3><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mike, great to have you here today,</strong> and I am very excited about your new book <em style="font-style: italic">Rivers of Iron</em>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Could you lay out </strong>what it's about and what the purpose is?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Lampton: ‘Well, the book</strong> is about an enormous effort that China in conjunction with seven Southeast Asian countries is making to build a high speed and conventional rail system that will knit China, particularly Southern China, into the Southeast Asian economic network.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And this is going to knit together</strong> Southeast Asia’s major cities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's part of a conception China</strong> has of itself as the economic hub and the goods and people and ideas and information are going to flow North-South with the pathways for these flows leading to China.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's talking about</strong> building three trunk lines from Southern China – Kunming - down to Singapore by three routes.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These would cross </strong>seven countries directly in Southeast Asia – Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Malaysia, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Singapore.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Each of these Southeast Asian countries</strong> is balancing its security fears with its economic desires to hook into the Chinese economic juggernaut.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Southeast Asians </strong>would like to get all the money they can from China to do this.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And they would</strong> also like to get all the security and investment they can from Japan, the United States, and from the involvement of India.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/61EzfE?track_p_id=d3GlIZHqM%40Pg2R5fWb9S_vn" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/l3AldFv8ugmTV7PlwFUSFTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike: ‘Each link</strong> you build makes building the next flank more valuable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is one of those things</strong> where momentum gathers at each stage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It includes not only the railroads,</strong> but highways, maritime routes, cyber routes, and so forth. It’s a very comprehensive vision.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This book looks</strong> at the just railroad component.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This undertaking</strong> is a lot farther along that many people recognize.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While it might take decades</strong> for this to be fully realized, by 2027 there will be at least one line that reaches Singapore.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financing</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm: ‘How are these projects</strong> going to be financed?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've heard so much</strong> about Chinese financing methods and the kinds of deals that have been cut. Is there a concern about “debt-trap diplomacy”?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike: ‘The</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">seven countries</strong> I'm looking at - are at very diverse economic levels.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Singapore</strong> has no problem financing its relatively short link to Kuala Lumpur in this ultimate chain.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thailand</strong> originally wanted to borrow money from China, but China was charging them more interest than China charged Indonesia. So Thailand said, well, we'll just do it ourselves rather than pay your exorbitant interest.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the other hand,</strong> a country like Laos with only 7 million people and a very small GDP is in effect undertaking a project that is half its GDP.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is indebted in ways</strong> that are not entirely clear to outsiders. It's not very transparent.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Laotians express</strong> a very great deal of worry about the degree of debt and obligation they've undertaken.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, from their viewpoint,</strong> they don't really have a choice.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If China doesn't go through Laos</strong>, it's going to go through Myanmar to the West or Vietnam to the East.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the worst fate for Laos</strong> is to be left out of the whole thing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So they've just</strong> sort of taken a leap of faith and borrowed and hope it's going to pay off.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6JPJzM?track_p_id=5QYeoK8Nhvig_wMXYVQYbJZ" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/dJsnZ1fYfSaX6lFN3fYzeTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">East-West Versus North-South</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike: ‘Countries like India,</strong> like Japan, and indeed like Singapore itself would like to balance this North-South dependence on China with East-West connectivity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India is talking</strong> with Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam about building East-West connectivity to the coast and then up the Pacific Ocean to Japan and Korea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The larger game </strong>is who's going to build out the North-South connectivity versus the East-West.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So there's</strong> a very interesting geopolitical game going on.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Balanced Connectivity</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike: ‘Rather than oppose,</strong> the U.S. ought to be figuring out how we can participate in it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I don't mean</strong> participate necessarily in BRI.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we can work</strong> with the Japanese and the Australians and the Koreans, and probably the EU countries to build what I would call balanced connectivity in this region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the U.S. deals </strong>with all its problems domestically and abroad, we’ve got to keep our eye on the ball, on the big forces changing the world. And this was one of them.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Changing the Face of Asia</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike: ‘My point is </strong>that is happening, and it's going to be transformative.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's going to be messy.</strong> It is messy. It's going to be ugly. People are going to get hurt.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘But this is going</strong> to change the face of Asia.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">2. To Understand U.S. Policy Toward China, Watch Congress Too</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6bZeJU?track_p_id=8wKcdIhZM5Qgpkk_paiJyc5" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6bZeJU?track_p_id=9ukbJcYCnd5Qgpkk_F1PTgU" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The U.S. Intelligence Community Is Not Prepared for the China Threat</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6bZeJU?track_p_id=5FioCc5Qgpkk_fM%40jwDMPAJ" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/eXB5cIOdARXED_0gqBg4Zzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Adam Schiff</strong> | Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our nation’s intelligence agencies are not ready—not by a long shot.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><a href="https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hpsci_china_deep_dive_redacted_summary_9.29.20.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>the full<strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘</strong>The China Deep Dive: A Report on the Intelligence Community’s Capabilities and Competencies with Respect to the People’s Republic of China’ from the House Intelligence Committee.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The House Intelligence Committee</strong> has spent the last two years looking at whether our nation’s intelligence apparatus is properly focused, postured, and resourced to understand the many dimensions of the China threat and preparing to advise policymakers on how to respond.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What we found was unsettling.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our nation’s intelligence agencies</strong> are not ready—not by a long shot.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After 9/11,</strong> the United States and its intelligence agencies rapidly reoriented toward a counterterrorism mission to protect the homeland.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although those moves</strong> were both necessary and largely successful, our abilities and resources devoted to other priority missions—such as China—waned.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the interim,</strong> China has transformed itself into a nation potentially capable of supplanting the United States as the leading power in the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In tandem with this transformation,</strong> Beijing’s increasing control of the domestic information environment and opaque decision-making process has continued to vex U.S. leaders seeking to develop sound and impactful policy toward China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Absent a significant realignment</strong> in resources and organization, the United States will be ill-prepared to compete with China on the global stage for decades to come.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Going forward,</strong> if we fail to accurately predict and characterize Beijing’s intent, we will continue to struggle to understand how and why the leadership of the CCP makes decisions and fail to respond effectively.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First,</strong> our intelligence agencies need to significantly realign resources and personnel to meet the challenge that China poses, quickly and across almost every single agency.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China cannot be viewed</strong> just through an Asia-specific lens but instead must be integrated throughout the intelligence enterprise and its functional missions.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second,</strong> intelligence agencies must do a better job of adapting to the sheer amount of open-source data available to them about global threats and competitors and to quickly get the resulting intelligence to decision-makers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given the increasing pace of global events,</strong> driven partly by social media and mobile communications, we need to quickly adapt and modernize.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Third,</strong> we need to change how we view the threat from China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing presents</strong> not only a military threat but also economic, technological, health, and counterintelligence threats.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Addressing these dimensions of the challenge </strong>will require a significant realignment of the types of individuals and skill sets we recruit, retain, invest in, and grant security clearances to, including through hiring analysts with nontraditional backgrounds in technology and science.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The intelligence community</strong> must also continue to prioritize the counterintelligence challenge that China poses.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beyond the known threat</strong> emanating from China’s intelligence services, there are a range of Chinese influence actors and operations, many of which are funded and organized by the CCP’s United Front Work Department.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to the Department of Defense’s 2019 China Military Power Report,</strong> Chinese influence efforts have targeted cultural institutions, state- and municipal-level government offices, media organizations, educational institutions, businesses, think tanks, and policy communities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. government</strong> must strengthen its ability to categorize, disrupt, and deter such Chinese influence operations occurring on U.S. soil.’  </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet for all the talk in Washington</strong> about the need to be “tough on China,” there has been scant action within the U.S. intelligence community—because action, unlike talk, requires hard choices about funding and priorities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But these are not choices</strong> we should shrink from.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6tjydc?track_p_id=bUBmkbGLuvLl5qsKVC_5Owq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/15iB4h5--Bc60ZQrlKal_0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6tjydc?track_p_id=dn4ztkgE1nQMES5qsKVC_Cf" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Task Force Report: U.S. Must Take Chinese Communist Party Threat Seriously</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6tjydc?track_p_id=5ENwOA5qsKVC_FYANoHLG5D" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lCoV6lI4SMBKgowm5SU7Hjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Congressman Kevin McCarthy</strong></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">National Interest</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kevin McCarthy & Michael McCaul</strong> | China Task Force, U.S. House of Representatives</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China seeks to replace the American Dream with the Chinese Dream. The United States cannot afford to underestimate the CCP’s ambitions or accommodate its rise any longer.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/478104010/China-Task-Force-Report" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a> the ‘China Task Force Report’ from the House Republican China Task Force.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘House Republicans on the China Task Force</strong> have put forward policies to end America’s dependence on the PRC while protecting Americans’ safety and well-being.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our </strong><a href="https://gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov/blog/china-task-force-report/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">comprehensive recommendations </strong></a>mobilize strategic U.S. government action in six areas: ideological competition, supply chains, national security, technology, the economy and energy, and competitiveness.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The China Task Force’s </strong><a href="https://www.republicanleader.gov/a-blueprint-to-combat-the-china-threat/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">blueprint</strong></a> reverses the failed consensus on the CCP and responds to urgent threats to our safety, security, and self-sufficiency.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It makes more than 400 recommendations,</strong> including over 170 legislative proposals.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly two-thirds of these proposals are bipartisan,</strong> and more than one-third have already passed the House or the Senate.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not only</strong> the most thorough congressional report on China in history, but is also realistic and achievable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without question,</strong> we must strengthen our military, and stop both CCP theft and its influence operations here at home.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We begin by giving the Department of Defense</strong> the resources it needs to modernize the force and close the capability gap in specific areas, such as research and development.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beyond strengthening our national-security capabilities,</strong> we must also fortify our position on the commanding heights of the economic battlefield.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our plan</strong> doubles research and development funding for artificial intelligence and quantum computing across the federal government over the next two years, and ensures that both international 5G standards and the fabrication of advanced semiconductor chips are led by America.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But just as American companies</strong> need to understand the stakes, CCP-affiliated companies need to face consequences.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is why our plan</strong> protects homegrown innovation by imposing sanctions on PRC entities that engage in industrial spying.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But there is perhaps</strong> no more urgent strategic undertaking than breaking the CCP’s supply-chain monopoly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our plan</strong> increases U.S. manufacturing and builds supply-chain resiliency through full expensing on a permanent basis for all U.S. investment and restores domestic-production tax credits.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And while solidifying our domestic strength,</strong> we must courageously address moral wrongs.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have a responsibility to speak</strong> clearly about the CCP’s human-rights abuses and those aiding them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP</strong> has launched a coordinated campaign across government and society, exploiting our institutions to eradicate them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It seeks to replace the American Dream</strong> with the Chinese Dream. The United States cannot afford to underestimate the CCP’s ambitions or accommodate its rise any longer.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To secure the blessings of liberty</strong> for ourselves and our posterity, we must adopt our own comprehensive and forward-leaning strategy.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">3. China’s Agricultural Production </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mExc0?track_p_id=cF2TrRNcamSNf6w8CGU_%406Z" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/-LZNUUkywP9ALnh-Fy332Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mExc0?track_p_id=a6Y3SbP3avP6w8CGU_pj4Cw" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chart: China’s Gigantic Agricultural Production </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/6qUVIciyTLWpmha4VUgDTDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;">This chart shows China's projected share of the global production of selected crops in the 2020/21 season.  </p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><br></h3><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Statista</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong> is the biggest producer in the world of:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">peanuts</strong> (37%),</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">rice</strong> (29%)</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">wheat</strong> (19%)</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And,</strong> the second-biggest producer of <strong style="font-weight: bold">corn</strong> (22%) behind the United States and of <strong style="font-weight: bold">cotton </strong>(23%) behind India.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China </strong>also produces:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">almost three quarters </strong>of the world’s grapefruits, pears and tangerines</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">69% of the global supply</strong> of peaches and nectarines, 54% of all apples and 46% of all table grapes.</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">the second-most rapeseeds </strong>in the world (19%) behind Canada.</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">47%</strong> of the world’s walnuts.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But only 5% of the world’s soy</strong> total (the U.S., Brazil and Argentina are much bigger producers).</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height:1.35em; color:#ffffff; font-weight: bold;">4. China Economy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/84PHw8?track_p_id=dL3KOLIoTcLor585nrPa_FV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pd2AGi8v7b5rElII6CSyYki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/84PHw8?track_p_id=085nrPa_6sQAaTTaFBUn1sC" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; line-height:40px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China: An Uneven Recovery</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/84PHw8?track_p_id=dHHbq3WbRJRx1G85nrPa_WZ" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/3pQLRRGUsMQjNHjp7Flx5jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif';"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We view the divergence between production and expenditure as the key downside risk to our annual outlook.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Key Points</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has been recovering, but unevenly.’</strong><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We view the divergence</strong> between production and expenditure as the key downside risk to our annual outlook.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are no longer</strong> as concerned about virus relapses causing severe supply-side disruptions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The recent acceleration in M2 growth</strong> is not expected to be inflationary.’ <ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘CNY</strong> has modest appreciation pressure over the next three months.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China: An uneven recovery</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has been recovering,</strong> but unevenly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Production-side indicators</strong> have rebounded faster than expenditure-side indicators.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is also noticeable unevenness</strong> within the expenditure side.'</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Infrastructure and real estate sectors</strong> have benefited disproportionately from the stimulus (Figure 21).’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But private manufacturing,</strong> services, and parts of the household sector have lagged due to fragmented credit allocation mechanisms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We view the divergence</strong> between production and expenditure as the key downside risk to our annual outlook.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We anticipate this divergence to wane,</strong> starting in Q420 and continuing into 2021.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The marginal impact</strong> of the current set of counter-cyclical stimulus in China has peaked though is still positive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ~3% of GDP fiscal stimulus</strong> has worked as intended.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet, it also experienced</strong> the usual limitations in boosting certain components of domestic demand.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For fixed asset investment (FAI),</strong> real estate and infrastructure have recovered to pre-outbreak growth levels, while manufacturing is noticeably lagging, reflecting the chronic difference in credit transmission efficiency among various sectors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Between now and the end of the year,</strong> we do not expect authorities to increase the size of the overall stimulus but will let the current set of stimulus run its course, using up the remaining quota of special purpose bonds.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Towards the beginning of next year,</strong> policy priorities will likely shift again towards strategic reform goals as authorities announce the next five-year plan.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The recent acceleration in M2 growth</strong> is not expected to be inflationary.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We now anticipate annual M2 growth for 2020</strong> to be around 10.4%, a noticeable increase from 8.4% in 2019.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the near term,</strong> due to credit access challenges faced by SMEs and a lack of direct support to financially fragile households, the acceleration in M2 has not translated into a comparable increase in overall domestic demand, thus limiting inflationary pressure.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the medium term,</strong> although we anticipate a modest improvement to credit allocation efficiency, such improvement will also likely facilitate policymakers to slow down money supply growth, thus neutralizing most (if not all) of the inflationary pressure.’</li><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the long term,</strong> as long as inflation expectations remain anchored, shifts in money supply growth are not necessarily correlated with future inflations. <ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We expect China</strong> to enjoy stable long-term inflation expectation for the foreseeable future.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our annual outlooks</strong> for headline and core inflations are 2.7% and 0.8% respectively.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 0rem;"><li style="margin-top: 1rem;!important: ;margin-bottom: 1rem;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘CNY has modest appreciation pressure</strong> over the next three months.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;!important: ;margin-block-end: 1rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 28px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

CHINAMacroReporter Archive

October 2020

‘President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit; but he has left it in worse shape than he found it.’

10/31/2020

This is Your Early Warning

10/28/2020

China Policy Debates are Back

10/24/2020

Why Xi Jinping Believes America is Losing, & How That is Shaping His Actions

10/17/2020

China Saves the World!

10/14/2020

Happy Double Ten Day!

10/10/2020

'This is Going to Change the Face of Asia.'

10/7/2020

Kicking Our Own Goals

10/4/2020

CHINAMacroReporter Archive

October 2020

‘President Trump’s criticisms of the world order had some merit; but he has left it in worse shape than he found it.’

10/31/2020

This is Your Early Warning

10/28/2020

China Policy Debates are Back

10/24/2020

Why Xi Jinping Believes America is Losing, & How That is Shaping His Actions

10/17/2020

China Saves the World!

10/14/2020

Happy Double Ten Day!

10/10/2020

'This is Going to Change the Face of Asia.'

10/7/2020

Kicking Our Own Goals

10/4/2020

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