8/21/2017

August 21, 2017

<div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:rgb(253, 255, 250); text-align:center"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><table id="template" style="" width="600" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="" valign="top"><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 243, 233);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Aug 21, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px;" align="center"><div style="line-height:48px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-family:lucida grande,lucida sans unicode,lucida sans,geneva,verdana,sans-serif"><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">U.S.-China Relations</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 2px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 1px; background-image: none;" height="2"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px;" align="center"><div style="line-height:48px"><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:48px"><span style="font-family:lucida grande,lucida sans unicode,lucida sans,geneva,verdana,sans-serif"><span style="color:#020c1b; font-size:28px"><span style="color:#020c1b; font-size:28px"><strong><span style="color:#020c1b; font-size:28px">What 'Thucydides Trap'?</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-family:lucida grande,lucida sans unicode,lucida sans,geneva,verdana,sans-serif"><em><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><strong><span style="color:#020c1b">Why the U.S. & China Aren't Destined for War</span></strong></span></span></span></span></em></span></div></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:35px"><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif; font-size:16px"><em><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">my conversation with</span></span></span></em></span></span></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">Bill Overholt</span></span></span></span></span></strong></span></span></div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif; font-size:16px"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">Harvard Asia Center</span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive_section_2" style="padding:0 3.5%; background-color: rgb(253, 255, 250);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px;" class="" align="center"><div style="line-height:27px; text-align:center"><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:lucida grande,lucida sans unicode,lucida sans,geneva,verdana,sans-serif"><span style="color:#020c1b">'It was the rise of Athens [China] and the fear that this instilled in Sparta [the U.S] that made war inevitable.'</span><span style="color:#020c1b"></span></span></span></span></div><div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:lucida grande,lucida sans unicode,lucida sans,geneva,verdana,sans-serif; font-size:16px"><span style="color:#020c1b; font-size:16px">- Thucydides -<br>(with apologies)</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(171, 168, 152); font-size: 1px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 22px; background-image: none;" align="center"><div style="line-height:22px"><div style="text-align:center"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#c0392b">Like Zeus, the Thucydides Trap has lost its power</span></strong></span></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Thucydides, 2,400 years ago, summed up the cause of the Peloponnesian War this way: 'It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.'</span></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">In more recent times, political scientists have used the simple equation <strong>rise of new power + fear of reigning power = war</strong> to explain the cause of about a dozen major armed conflicts. The latest to apply the formula is Graham Allison in his <em>Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides's Trap?</em>.</span></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">So can we escape? According to Bill Overholt, the question itself is wrong: The Thucydides Trap died in World War II.</span></span></div><div style="text-align:left"><br></div><div style="text-align:left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">He argues that since World War II the geopolitical landscape has experienced 'one of the greatest transformations in world history'...</span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; line-height: 22px; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">‘The people who use the Thucydides Trap for analysis - John Mearsheimer and a dozen of other political scientists, including now Graham Allison - focus on the period before World War II.</span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'What they miss is the strategic divide between the pre-World War II era when traditional military and territorial approaches were the way to build a powerful and successful country, and the post-World War II modern world where those approaches are more likely to be self-defeating.'</span></span></span></em></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 22px; background-image: none;" align="center"><div style="line-height:22px"><div style="text-align:left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Because the proponents of Thucydides Trap analysis focus on the previous world order, they miss entirely that...</span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; line-height: 22px; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'The game is now going to be decided more by economics. I'm not talking about economic interdependence. I'm talking about the fact that economics is the key to success if you're a realist in the modern world - and this is something that political science realists have never focused on. </span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'What you do today to achieve power is pour your money into your country's economic success, not make territorial conquests or have overwhelming military superiority. </span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'This post-World War II change from using military force to using economic development to gain power is one of the greatest transformations in world history.'</span></span></span></em></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 22px; background-image: none;" align="center"><div style="line-height:22px"><div style="text-align:left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">In this new world order, where economics trumps force, the U.S. and China have little reason to go to war...</span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; border-width: 0px; line-height: 22px; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'Never have two countries gotten so much economic advantage from dealing with each other than the U.S. and China have. </span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'There's going to be constant pressure on both sides for leaders to realize that and not to mess it up.'</span></span></span></em></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 22px; background-image: none;" align="center"><div style="line-height:22px"><div style="text-align:left"><div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">And, of course, not go to war.</span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Watch Bill develop his argument in our conversation below – only 5 minutes – and then let me know what you think: <strong>Are the U.S. and China destined to go to war?</strong></span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">All the best,</span></span></div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Malcolm</span></span></a></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(171, 168, 152); font-size: 1px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 10px 0 10px 0;" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="" target="_blank" style="font-size: 14px;font-family: Lucida Grande,Lucida Sans Unicode,Lucida Sans,Geneva,Verdana,sans-serif;font-weight: normal;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(0, 127, 188);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 127, 188);border-radius: 3px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch the Analysis | Read the Transcript →</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px;" valign="top"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/thucydides-trap-china-us" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1503284816611-0ojw3ttj3l3-2e5690c6f6c56ccf522b1855751ddb6d.png" alt="" class="img-max" style="cursor: pointer; width: 450px; height: 253.125px; background-image: none;" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/thucydides-trap-china-us" data-title="" width="450" height="253.125" border="0"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 30px;" class="spacer" height="30"><div style="font-size: 30px; height: 30px;" class="" height="30"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(240, 243, 233); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: palatino, "palatino linotype", "palatino lt std", "book antiqua", georgia, serif; background-color: rgb(240, 243, 233); background-image: none;" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:20px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:center"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="color:#020c1b"><strong>About Bill Overholt</strong></span></span></span></span></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" class="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="24%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499371438866-b7m67zvzdsv-8bb117d614157bfab64bcbfc694a2110.jpg?1499371440" alt="" class="img-max" data-href="" style="cursor: pointer; background-image: none; width: 120px; height: 71.7949px;" width="120" height="71.7948717948718" border="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="73%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="; background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; background-image: none;" class="" align="center"><div style="text-align:center"><div style="line-height:19px"><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 19px;text-align: left;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Senior Fellow at Harvard Asia Center</span></li></ul><div><div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 19px;text-align: left;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">21 years' experience running Asia research teams for Nomura, Bank Boston, and Bankers Trust</span></li><li style="line-height: 19px;text-align: left;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Former Asia Policy Distinguished Research Chair and Director of the Asia Policy Center at RAND</span></li></ul></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:right"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">read more →</a></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

8/5/2017

August 5, 2017

<div><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Aug 5, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">U.S.-China Trade</span></span></em></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="font-size:28px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong><em>Siri</em>: 'Can the iPhone Prove President Trump's Wrong about U.S.-China Trade?' </strong></span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>my conversation with</em></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Yukon Huang</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:20px"><div><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">Carnegie Endowment</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 20px 0px 10px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: left; padding-top: 27px; padding-left: 0px;" valign="middle" align="left"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501620375512-xdimhmhd9zo-9aa64453c55d6ba8a20d23dac0aaac55.gif?1501620378" style="width: 235px; height: 235px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="" width="235" border="0" height="235"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; ;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">'How much of that $650 iPhone - which adds to China's trade surplus with the U.S. - actually originates and stays in China? </span></span></em></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Only $25.'</span></span></em></span></span></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/yukon-huang" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39">- Yukon Huang -</span></span></span></span></a></div><div style="line-height:18px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Carnegie Endowment</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="25px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238);" valign="top"><div align="left" style="color:#b90000; display:block; line-height:24px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span>For decades, about 50% of U.S. imports of manufactured goods have come from Asia.</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span>During this time China has risen from supplying 10% of those Asian goods to supplying 65%.</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span>The reason: after joining WTO, China became Asia's assembly plant.</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span>Companies ship components manufactured in other Asian countries to China for assembly and export as finished products.</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span>And, the full price of those products - components as well as profits - go on China's trade balance, even though China's only economic benefit is the assembly.</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span>Hence, China's actual trade surplus is smaller than stated, and, in fact, is a stand-in for Asia's overall trade surplus with the U.S.</span></li></ul></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">Following what now appears to be the vain hope that China would solve the North Korean nuclear problem for him, President Trump seems to be tweeting up to a trade confrontation, perhaps even a trade war, with China.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:25px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">But, just as he was wrong about China's being a currency manipulator, the President may also be wrong - albeit for more subtle reasons - about how much China itself actually contributes to the U.S. trade deficit.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:25px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/yukon-huang" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Yukon Huang</a>, senior fellow at the Carnegie Asia Program and former World Bank head in China, in laying out these subtle reasons, concludes that China's actual trade surplus with the U.S. is smaller than stated in trade statistics. Here's why...</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">For decades, U.S. imports of manufactured goods from Asia has remained pretty steady at between 45 and 50%.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">What has changed is the share of those goods imported from China since it joined the WTO...</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px;" valign="top"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501644141783-ezbs1cc2n3r-fcf46dde0a77daf3c24ce31a983db076.png?1501644146" alt="" class="img-max" style="cursor: pointer; width: 500px; height: 302.5px; background-image: none;" width="500" border="0" height="302.5"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">There are two possible reasons for this. One is that China simply beat out the other Asian nations. </span></span></span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">The other - and real explanation - is that, after joining the WTO, China became the assembly plant of Asia, taking parts and components manufactured in other Asian countries, assembling them into finished products, and then exporting those products to the U.S.... </span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">‘China accounts for 65% of the exports from Asia to the United States. </span></span></span></em></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'That 65% of exports from Asia to the United States does not represent the true value of these goods being produced in China, since most of these parts and components are actually being produced in Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. </span></span></span></em></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'China's only value-added is the labor and the assembly.'</span></span></span></em></span></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">Consider the case of the iPhone. Yukon breaks that $650 price tag down:</span></span></span></span></div><div><div><div style="line-height:31px"><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 31px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><strong>$325:</strong> the value of parts and components, mainly produced in South Korea and Japan. </span></span></span></span></li></ul></div></div><div><div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 31px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><strong>$300: </strong>profit to Apple. </span></span></span></span></li></ul></div></div><div><div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 31px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><strong>$25:</strong> labor – the only added value to China's economy.</span></span></span></span></li></ul></div></div></div><div style="line-height:31px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">$25 to China! Yet, on the trade books, here's what happens...</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">‘You take a $650 iPhone, assembled, exported from China, and it comes to the United States. It shows up in the balance of payments, in the trade balance, as a $650 item deficit for the U.S. and a $650 surplus for China. </span></span></span></em></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'But, how much of that $650 actually originates and stays in China? Only $25.' </span></span></span></em></span></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">And, adding insult of a sort to injury...</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">'That money actually never really shows up in China, because the receipts are basically secured in the United States, but it never stays in the United States. It's basically transferred overseas, but in the trade books it shows up as a product from China, which costs $650.'</span></em></span></span></span></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div style="line-height:31px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">So, what do we have... </span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">The U.S. is importing as many Asia manufactured goods as ever - so, there has been no surge in Asian imports.</span></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">But, what's changed is that Asian manufacturers have been funneling their products to China - Asia's assembly plant  - for assembly and export.</span></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">So, on the books, it looks as if U.S. imports from China have exploded (please have a look again at the chart, above).</span></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">In reality, nothing has changed, except for China unfairly taking the blame for what is, in fact, Asia's usual trade surplus with the U.S.</span></span></span></span></li></ul></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">To hear Yukon's full explanation, watch our short video interview, below.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="color:#00223a">And, also have a look at our interview, '</span><span style="color:#00223a"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/china-did-not-cause-americas-trade-problems" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">China Didn't Cause America's Trade Problems,'</a> a little further below.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Want more of Yukon's signature China myth-busting? Be sure to check out his new book, </span><strong><em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Cracking-China-Conundrum-Conventional-Economic/dp/0190630035" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#00223a">Cracking the China Conundrum</span></a></em></strong><span style="color:#00223a">.</span></span></span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif">All the best,</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,book antiqua,georgia,serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><a href="http://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#00223a">Malcolm</span></a></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinas-trade-surplus" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501724381042-qprk9h9ob4-cd2484fd7a0ab0a11c5d0f5f474f4d5c.jpg" style="width: 350px; height: 196.583px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinas-trade-surplus" data-title="" width="350" border="0" height="196.58333333333334"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinas-trade-surplus" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: Candara,Calibri,Segoe,Segoe UI,Optima,Arial,sans-serif;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Yukon's Analysis</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 3px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/28/2017

<div><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 28, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">U.S.-China Relations</span></span></em></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>In a G-Zero World,</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>Will China Dominate Asia?</strong></span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:18px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>my conversation with</em></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Bill Overholt</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">Harvard Asia Center</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 20px 0px 10px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: left; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px;" valign="middle" align="left"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501088633822-gua6rnybldl-43002eff2f1735ecd874f5c1d2123be4.gif" style="width: 235px; height: 184.442px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="" width="235" border="0" height="184.4422310756972"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; ; background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; ; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c0392b"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">On the move again?</span></span></span></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none; ;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39"> 'Even a powerful country like South Korea will be more and more influenced by Chinese views.'</span></span></em></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39">- <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Bill Overholt</a> -</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Harvard Asia Center</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="25px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238);" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><div style="line-height:25px"><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">A G-Zero World is coming, where the U.S. will be first among several other powers - but no longer global leader</span></strong></span></span></span></li></ul></div><div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">China will become the second most important power and the leader of Asia, propped up by countries alienated by President Trump</span></strong></span></span></span></li></ul></div><div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 25px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#b90000"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">Still, the extent of Beijing’s regional hegemony hinges on whether it can overcome an array of domestic and international challenges. </span></strong></span></span></span></li></ul></div></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Last week, <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Bill Overholt </a>of Harvard’s Asia Center, presented an intriguing case for why China will not replace the U.S. as global leader (in case you missed it, you can <a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/is-the-us-ceding-global-leadership-to-china" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">watch our conversation here</a>.) </span></span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Instead of a world led by China or the U.S., for that matter, Bill posited a G-Zero world, without any dominant hegemon. In contrast to...</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">A G-1 one world with one leader like the U.S. </span></span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">A G -2 </span></span></span></span></em><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">world</span></em><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"> would be </span></em><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">a world</span></em></span></span></span><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a"><em> where the U.S. and China were collaborating to create a world order, as to some extent they have been for a quarter century</em>.</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">In the G-Zero </span></span><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">world, the U.S. and China will be one and two, respectively, globally. But</span></span><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">...</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">China will be the regional leader in Asia. </span></span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">We're not talking about everybody joining an alliance with China. That's not going to happen.</span></span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">But, on trade issues, on local strategic issues, the Chinese voice is going to get stronger and stronger</span></span><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">. </span></span></span></span></em></div><div><br></div><div><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">And, even a powerful country like South Korea will be more and more influenced by Chinese views.</span></span></span></span></em></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:22px"><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">And as China consolidates its influence in what it considers its backyard, there is no guarantee that long-time friendly Pacific powers like Thailand, Philippines, or even Australia will support the U.S. as they used to.</span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Still, China’s regional hegemony is not a given. According to Bill, the extent of  Beijing’s leadership will depend on Zhongnanhai’s...</span></span></div><div><br></div><div><div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Successfully implementing its ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Tamping down the quibbling over minor territorial issues with its neighbors, and</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Completing economic – and, especially SOE - reform.</span></span></li></ul></div></div></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">How will Beijing carve out a place for itself in this more anarchic reality? How will neighboring nations, who long have prioritized economic growth over military spending, respond to a new Chinese push for Asian domination? And, the crucial question: is war between China and the U.S. inevitable? </span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Bill talked about this as well, so look out for our next episode of our conversion - this time on the Thucydides Trap (and about how this narrative might be missing the point, too) - next week.</span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">But first, watch Bill’s provocative analysis below, and then let me know your thoughts. Thanks!</span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">All the best,</span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><a href="http://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Malcolm</a></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/in-a-g-zero-world-will-china-dominate-asia" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501191123792-cj65gt9e00o-badb33be1c815e5e43edef0dc4ddb6bf.jpg" style="width: 350px; height: 197.167px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/in-a-g-zero-world-will-china-dominate-asia" data-title="" width="350" border="0" height="197.16666666666666"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/in-a-g-zero-world-will-china-dominate-asia" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: Candara,Calibri,Segoe,Segoe UI,Optima,Arial,sans-serif;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Bill's Analysis</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 3px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0px; background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58); background-image: none;" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: "lucida console&quot: ;, &quot: ;lucida sans typewriter&quot: ;, monaco, &quot: ;bitstream vera sans mono&quot: ;, monospace: ;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">You also might like</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/china-did-not-cause-americas-trade-problems" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501191294686-uji7iyplil-badb33be1c815e5e43edef0dc4ddb6bf.jpg" style="width: 235px; height: 132.383px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/china-did-not-cause-americas-trade-problems" data-title="" width="235" border="0" height="132.38333333333333"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:28px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:center"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>'China Did Not Cause America's Trade Problems'</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/yukon-huang" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong><em><span style="color:#c90000">Yukon Huang</span></em></strong></a></span></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em>Carnegie Endowment</em></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:16px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><br></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/is-the-us-ceding-global-leadership-to-china" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1500672733668-3pyqmkqkypw-9c00d02c9e6a00dc5e9912398ba4a674.jpg?1500672741" style="width: 235px; height: 132.383px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/is-the-us-ceding-global-leadership-to-china" data-title="" width="235" border="0" height="132.38333333333333"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:16px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>Is the U.S. Ceding Global Leadership to China?</strong></span></span></span></div></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:24px; word-wrap:break-word"><em><strong><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c90000">Bill Overholt </span></a></strong></em></div><div style="display:block; line-height:24px; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">Harvard Asia Center</span></em></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0px; background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58); background-image: none;" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: "lucida console&quot: ;, &quot: ;lucida sans typewriter&quot: ;, monaco, &quot: ;bitstream vera sans mono&quot: ;, monospace: ;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Terrific Book</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div style="line-height:36px"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:28px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/07/21/cracking-china-conundrum-why-conventional-economic-wisdom-is-wrong-pub-68586" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#b90000">Cracking the China Conundrum:</span></a></span></span></span></strong></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#c90000">Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong</span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">by</span></span><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39"></span></span></strong></span></span><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/yukon-huang" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Yukon Huang</a></span></span></strong></span></span></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Senior Fellow, Carnegie Asia Program </span></span></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Carnegie Endowment for International Peace</span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" class="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="24%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/07/21/cracking-china-conundrum-why-conventional-economic-wisdom-is-wrong-pub-68586" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1501191873781-h2iy1nnjpn4-badb33be1c815e5e43edef0dc4ddb6bf.jpg" alt="" class="img-max" data-href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/07/21/cracking-china-conundrum-why-conventional-economic-wisdom-is-wrong-pub-68586" style="cursor: pointer; background-image: none; width: 104px; height: 157.739px;" data-title="" width="104" border="0" height="157.73860182370822"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="73%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="18px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 18px;"><div style="font-size:18px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div style="line-height:22px"><div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">China generates widely varying views on its economic and political prospects. This book is about why there are such differences and why the conventional wisdom is so often wrong.</span></em></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 15px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/23/2017

<div><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 23, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">U.S.-China Relations</span></span></em></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>Is the U.S. Ceding Global</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>Leadership to China?</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:34px"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">(No...but not for the reason you think)</span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:18px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>my conversation with</em></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Bill Overholt</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a">Harvard Asia Center</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 20px 0px 10px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: left; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px;" valign="middle" align="left"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1500584853688-w8e8mrgc90s-5b5a3a6d76650a972f410c45c23e51d4.jpg" style="width: 235px; height: 132.383px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="" width="235" border="0" height="132.38333333333333"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; ; background-image: none;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; ; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c0392b"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">And, the winner is...      <em>no one</em>.</span></span></span></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; ;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39"> 'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. </span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">as </span></em></span></span></span><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">a global leader </span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">anytime soon.'</span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39">- <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Bill Overholt</a> -</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Harvard Asia Center</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="25px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(238, 244, 238);" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 22px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">The U.S. has been ceding global leadership since the end of the Cold War.</span></strong></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 22px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">But, China — often cited as the likely successor to the U.S. — is not yet ready to assume leadership.</span></strong></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 22px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">Instead, we are headed for is a ‘G-Zero’ world, with no single global leader. Not the U.S. and not China.</span></strong></span></span></span></li></ul></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became:<em><strong> 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?'</strong></em></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Yes and no, says <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Bill Overholt</a> of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet? Again, yes and no.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Yes, President Trump's ‘America First’ policies and his disdain for international regimes in trade, climate change, and defense, as well as his treatment of some of the U.S.’s greatest allies, has certainly accelerated America’s global retreat.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">But, no, too. Because the U.S. retreat began well before President Trump took office. As Bill points out…</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Why is the U.S. ceding global leadership? </span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">The headlines are all about President Trump, and a lot of that is appropriate, but there are much deeper trends that are more important in the long run.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">When Americans are not concerned about a great war or a Cold War, they get less interested in foreign policy when they elect a president.</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Thus, since the end of the Cold War, we have elected presidents - from Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to Barack Obama and now Donald Trump - who came to office with no foreign policy experience.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">And, we can see a parallel trend in Congress...</span></span></span></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:25px"><div style="line-height:28px"><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">What's happened since the Cold War is that Congress has generously funded the military.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">But, the State Department and economic aid budgets have been cut and cut and cut. That's a continuous process that has been going on since the 1990s.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Again, Trump is the ultimate caricature of that, trying to take an already minuscule State Department budget and cut it by another 30%, but he's on trend.</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">The result:</span></span></span><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> 'The principal tools of successful strategy are being eroded at the same time when the top leaders are less experienced, less knowledgeable, and less interested in national strategy and foreign policy.' No wonder American has been losing influence globally.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">But, regardless of the causes, the U.S. retreat could still benefit China. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Take Australia, as an example. Headlines there say that Canberra is 'now </span></span></span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:16px">thinking it needs to tilt more toward China because the U.S. is such an unreliable ally.' </span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:16px">And that, it's '</span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:16px">starting to take more Chinese priorities into consideration’ on issues ranging from South China Sea</span><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:16px"> to free trade.'</span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size:16px">If our foreign policy can push even Australia - </span><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">perhaps our most faithful ally - toward China, how much more will it drive our less stalwart Asian allies toward Beijing?</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">So, if China isn't destined for global leadership, can it nonetheless supplant the U.S. as the regional leader in Asia? Bill has his doubts about that too. And, that will be the subject of next installment of our interview. Stay tuned!</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">In the meantime, watch Bill's analysis - <strong>right below</strong> <strong>& just 5 minutes</strong>- of why the U.S. will not cede global leadership, right below. And then let me know what you think. Thanks!</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">All the best,</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><a href="http://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Malcolm</a></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/is-the-us-ceding-global-leadership-to-china" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1500672733668-3pyqmkqkypw-9c00d02c9e6a00dc5e9912398ba4a674.jpg" style="width: 350px; height: 197.167px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/is-the-us-ceding-global-leadership-to-china" data-title="" width="350" border="0" height="197.16666666666666"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/is-the-us-ceding-global-leadership-to-china" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: Candara,Calibri,Segoe,Segoe UI,Optima,Arial,sans-serif;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Bill's Analysis</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 3px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/17/2017

<div><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 17, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word" align="center"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">U.S.-China Trade</span></span></em></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;" valign="top" align="center" height="5px"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="12px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word" align="center"><div><div style="line-height:36px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>'China Did Not Cause America's Trade Problems'</strong></span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:31px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>my conversation with</em></span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Yukon Huang</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Carnegie Endowment</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="12px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;" valign="top" align="center" height="5px"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 20px;" class="spacer" height="20"><div style="font-size: 20px; height: 20px;" class="" height="20"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 10px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: left; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px;" valign="middle" align="left"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499723725742-bbwo9i830kd-955344927df869ac9a8732cee4e8a672.gif" style="width: 235px; height: 213.005px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="" width="235" border="0" height="213.00492610837438"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; ; background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;" valign="top" align="center" height="5px"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:center"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c0392b"><strong><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">about China & the </span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:center"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c0392b"><strong><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">U.S. trade deficit</span></strong></span></span></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="2" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 19px;" valign="top" align="center" height="19px"><div style="font-size:19px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">'America's trade problems are <strong>not</strong> the consequence of China's policies.'</span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:18px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">- Yukon Huang -</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">Carnegie Endowment</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="7px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/yukon-huang" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Yukon Huang</a>, China economy guru at the Carnegie Endowment, has once again upended what I thought I understood about a particular China issue - this time U.S-China trade. And, more annoying, he has, as you will see, the data to back up his contentions. </span></span></span><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">During our conversation, he told me...</span></span></span></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="30px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">America's trade deficit with China has been surging. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">So people say, 'If I want to solve America's trade deficit problems, the simplest way to do it is to somehow narrow the trade deficit with China.'</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">This is why Donald Trump comes up with the view that China is the problem, <strong>but it's basically wrong</strong>.</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="5px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Using this chart, Yukon explains that China's trade surpluses and U.S. trade deficits don't coincide...</span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 20px;" valign="top"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499912575739-p1q2pg99e5h-52b78894cacdd87fdff22ef28cde0e71.png?1499912638967?1499912640469" alt="" class="img-max" style="cursor: pointer; width: 500px; height: 338.681px; background-image: none;" width="500" border="0" height="338.68092691622104"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="30px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">Notice that when America's trade deficits start to get smaller, around 2005 or 2006, China's trade surpluses start to get bigger. They actually move in the wrong direction. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">What this diagram shows is that there is no direct link between China's trade balances and America's trade balances. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">It's a mistake to say that America's trade problems are the consequence of China's policies.</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="5px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">There's a lot more to Yukon's analysis. To see how he gets to these conclusions,<strong><u>watch his video, below</u></strong>. It's only 6 minutes -  you won't look at U.S.-China trade the same way again.</span></span></span><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 9px 0px 3px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/us-china-trade-problems?autoplay=true" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499917327216-6xmt4o7qaf5-30e4b8493925ada7ccb74955395fa08c.jpg" style="width: 350px; height: 197.08px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/us-china-trade-problems?autoplay=true" data-title="" width="350" border="0" height="197.08029197080293"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/us-china-trade-problems?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="font-size: 14px;font-family: "century gothic&quot: ;,&quot: ;apple gothic&quot: ;,sans-serif: ;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Yukon's Analysis</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 8px 0px 3px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">After you watch, let me know if Yukon has changed your mind. And, if not, why not. Thanks!</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">More of my conversation with Yukon coming soon. Stay tuned.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">All the best,</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Malcolm</span></span></span></a></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 3px 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0px; background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58); background-image: none;" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: "lucida console&quot: ;, &quot: ;lucida sans typewriter&quot: ;, monaco, &quot: ;bitstream vera sans mono&quot: ;, monospace: ;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">You also might like</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/6/will-one-belt-one-road-tank-chinas-economy" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1498533535048-9ht1vrjydgp-56f489f500812316600bb93ad280f06b.jpg?1498533541" style="width: 235px; height: 132.383px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/6/will-one-belt-one-road-tank-chinas-economy" data-title="" width="235" border="0" height="132.38333333333333"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:35px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>One Belt, One Road  </strong></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'It's significance is underrated in the U.S. and the West'</span></span></span></div><div><br></div></div></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/pieter-bottelier" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong><em><span style="color:#c90000">Pieter Bottelier</span></em></strong></a></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">SAIS</span></em></span></span></span></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:16px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><br></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;" valign="top" align="center" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/tse-overcapacity?autoplay=true" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499915149504-7rvaoyx5dey-30e4b8493925ada7ccb74955395fa08c.jpg" style="width: 235px; height: 131.6px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/tse-overcapacity?autoplay=true" data-title="" width="235" border="0" height="131.6"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:16px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity (8 mins)</strong></span></span></span></div></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:14px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><br></div><div style="display:block; line-height:24px; word-wrap:break-word"><em><strong><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/edward-tse" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c90000">Edward Tse </span></a></strong></em></div><div style="display:block; line-height:24px; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">Founder & CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company</span></em></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0px; background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58); background-image: none;" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: "lucida console&quot: ;, &quot: ;lucida sans typewriter&quot: ;, monaco, &quot: ;bitstream vera sans mono&quot: ;, monospace: ;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Terrific Book</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div style="line-height:36px"><span style="font-size:28px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Disruptors-Companies-Changing-Business/dp/1591847540" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c90000"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">China's Disruptors:</span></strong></span></a></span></span></div><div style="line-height:25px"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Disruptors-Companies-Changing-Business/dp/1591847540" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#c90000">How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business</span></em></span></span></span></a></div><div style="line-height:25px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">by <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/edward-tse" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Edward Tse</a></span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:16px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">Founder & CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company</span></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;" valign="top" align="center" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" class="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="24%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Ideas-Rising-Influence-Thinkers-ebook/dp/B071GN9PCW/ref=la_B001HOAC4W_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1498162463&sr=1-1" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499917564235-uk88ndmjmi-7e3c36a20ad497f2860cab1d7e1a20a1.jpg" alt="" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Ideas-Rising-Influence-Thinkers-ebook/dp/B071GN9PCW/ref=la_B001HOAC4W_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1498162463&sr=1-1" style="cursor: pointer; background-image: none; width: 104px; height: 157.387px;" data-title="" width="104" border="0" height="157.38666666666666"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="73%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 2px;" valign="top" align="center" height="2px"><div style="font-size:2px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="15px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">In September 2014, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba raised $25 billion in the world’s biggest-ever initial public offering. Since then, millions of investors and managers worldwide have pondered a fundamental question: What’s really going on with the new wave of China’s disruptors?</span></em></span></span></span></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="15px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 2px;" valign="top" align="center" height="2px"><div style="font-size:2px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 20px 0px 25px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="drag-element parent-element on-hover ui-draggable ui-draggable-dragging" rbl-width="full" style="position: relative; z-index: 3; left: 0px; top: 0px;"><div class="border-element"></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/12/2017

<div><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 12, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word" align="center"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">North Korean Nukes</span></span></em></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;" valign="top" align="center" height="5px"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="12px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word" align="center"><div><div style="line-height:36px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>'How Xi and Trump Can Make Real Progress on North Korea'</strong></span></span></span><br></div></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:31px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>an article by</em></span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Evan Osnos</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">The New Yorker</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="12px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;" valign="top" align="center" height="5px"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;" class=""> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: left; padding-top: 25px; padding-left: 0px;" valign="middle" align="left"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499880415882-4dc2lwl7h3r-5193a369b6f9400506a8724f5444556a.gif?1499880422" style="width: 220px; height: 124.667px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="" width="220" border="0" height="124.66666666666667"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 2px;" valign="top" align="center" height="2px"><div style="font-size:2px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="11px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#c0392b; font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">'rock, paper, scissors' </span></strong></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:right; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="color:#c0392b; font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">...what Xi Jinping </span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:right; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="color:#c0392b; font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">learned from studying</span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:right; word-wrap:break-word"><strong><span style="color:#c0392b; font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em>The Art of the Deal</em></span></span></span></strong></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="21px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;" class=""> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">'...as soon as he [Trump] became President, Chinese leaders started reading his books in search of clues to his thinking. '</span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">- Evan Osnos -</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">The New Yorker</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">When I read Evan Osnos <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/how-xi-and-trump-can-make-real-progress-on-north-korea" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">''How Xi and Trump Can Make Real Progress on North Korea,'</a> I thought of the scene in the movie <em>Patton,</em> where George C. Scott, after outmaneuvering his German his rival, says, 'Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book.' </span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:14px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:left" align="left"><br></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">It seems that President Xi has done the same thing. According to Mr. Osnos...</span></span></span><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"> </span></span></span></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="30px" valign="top"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">...as soon as he [Trump] became President, Chinese leaders started reading his books in search of clues to his thinking. From “The Art of the Deal” they concluded, among other things, that Trump’s theatrical demands are only a tool of negotiation. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">Trump’s approach, according to <strong><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/6/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Cheng Li</a></strong>, of the Brookings Institution, who researches Chinese élite politics, was clear: “You should put some of your demands outrageously high, so you will never be a loser.”</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><em>(Mr. Osnos' Cheng Li quote comes from our interview - you can hear all of Cheng's excellent insights by clicking on Mr. Osnos' link, above, or just watch below.)</em></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="5px" valign="top"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="3" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 20px 0px 10px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/6/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499898835331-9dihu86f72-bd238bc86cfff00cec1b7b7793f5fb09.jpg" style="width: 350px; height: 196.781px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/6/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era" data-title="" width="350" border="0" height="196.78111587982832"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px 0px 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word" align="left"><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">So, when President Trump mentioned over dessert at Mar-a-Lago that he was launching missiles at Syria, President Xi - armed with top-notch oppo research - apparently was not taken aback. And, he has gone on, really until today, to play the U.S. president to China's benefit. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">But, can that last? From some of his recent tweets, President Trump seems to be losing patience over China's inability or unwillingness to bring North Korea to heel. If China doesn't produce results soon, the President may well return to campaign form. Trade war, anyone?</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">There may be a new approach. Mr. Osnos describes an intriguing proposal that could give China the right kind of leverage over North Korea. You can read about it <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/how-xi-and-trump-can-make-real-progress-on-north-korea" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a> in Mr. Osnos' full article. Let me know what you think.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">All the best,</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Malcolm</span></a></span></span></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 3px 0px 20px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0px; background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58); background-image: none;" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-family: "lucida console&quot: ;, &quot: ;lucida sans typewriter&quot: ;, monaco, &quot: ;bitstream vera sans mono&quot: ;, monospace: ;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(0, 34, 58);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">You also might like</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><table width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/obor-pieter?autoplay=true" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1498533535048-9ht1vrjydgp-56f489f500812316600bb93ad280f06b.jpg?1498533541" style="width: 235px; height: 132.383px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/obor-pieter?autoplay=true" data-title="" width="235" border="0" height="132.38333333333333"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:28px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:center"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>One Belt, One Road  </strong></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'It's significance is underrated in the U.S. and the West'</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div></div></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:22px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:24px"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/pieter-bottelier" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong><em><span style="color:#c90000">Pieter Bottelier</span></em></strong></a></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">SAIS</span></em></span></span></span></div></div><div style="display:block; line-height:16px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><br></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 2px;" valign="top" align="center" height="2px"><div style="font-size:2px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="47%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/chinas-got-to-realize-the-gigs-up" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1498708556271-72d6h3cn4sm-a045d07c945aa2a907848736234c1c94.jpg?1498708560" style="width: 235px; height: 131.992px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/blog//2017/7/chinas-got-to-realize-the-gigs-up" data-title="" width="235" border="0" height="131.99166666666667"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue",helvetica,arial,sans-serif; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238); background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:16px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="display:block; line-height:28px; overflow-wrap:break-word; text-align:center"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>'China's Got To Realize The Gig's Up'</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:14px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><br></div><div style="display:block; line-height:24px; overflow-wrap:break-word"><em><strong><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/james-mcgregor" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#b90000">James McGregor</span></a></strong></em></div><div style="display:block; line-height:24px; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div style="display:block; line-height:14px; overflow-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">Chairman, Greater China, </span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:14px; overflow-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">APCO Worldwide</span></em></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 19px;" valign="top" align="center" height="19px"><div style="font-size:19px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;" class=""> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/8/2017

<div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="500" class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 8, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">North Korean Nukes</span></span></em></span></span></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div style="line-height:36px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>Why a Trump–Kim Jong-un</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:36px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>Summit Could Work</strong></span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:14px"></div><div style="line-height:31px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>my conversation with</em></span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:31px"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Bill Overholt</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><div><div><div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Harvard Asia Center</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 20px;" class="spacer" height="20"><div style="font-size: 20px; height: 20px;" class="" height="20"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 10px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="100%" align="right" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; ;" valign="top"><div style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#3e3c39">'If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him [Kim Jong-un], I would absolutely. I would be honored to do it.'</span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="display:block; line-height:31px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">- President Trump -</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif">May 2017</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 20px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Missing from the latest on how to deal with North Korea is President Trump's radical suggestion that he meet with Chairman Kim (BloombergTrump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-01/trump-says-he-d-meet-with-north-korea-s-kim-if-situation-s-right" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Says He’d Meet With Kim Jong Un Under Right Circumstances</a>). Perhaps, it was lost in the blizzard of Trumpian pronouncements.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">But not lost to <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/william" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Bill Overholt</a> of the Harvard Asia Center. In my conversation with him, he told me...</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="30px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong>Crucially, President Trump has indicated a willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un. </strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">We have only been able to move forward on serious deals with North Korea when American envoys have been top level. The North Koreans react very badly to having these life and death issues dealt with at the Assistant Secretary of State level. </span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong>Ultimately, any deal that's going to work has to be sealed at the presidential level.</strong></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Although President Trump did not specify the conditions for a meeting, Bill believes that...</span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="30px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">What President Trump has done is to signal we are willing to move away from this formula that the North Koreans have to give up everything in their nuclear program before negotiations - only then we'll talk with them. </span></span></span><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong>I admire our U.S. negotiators, but that formula is simply absurd.</strong></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Why absurd? Because...</span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="30px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:25px"><div><div><div style="line-height:28px"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong>North Korea is like an animal injured, trapped in the corner. </strong>You threaten a little animal more, it's just going to bite you more - because that's all it knows how to do. <strong>The nuclear program is their only theory of having any security.</strong></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">You can watch Bill lay out his argument here...</span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 3px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="1px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 1px;"><div style="font-size:1px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:28px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:24px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>Why a Trump-Kim Summit Could Work</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:26px"><div><div><div><span style="font-size:14px;" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">(2 mins)</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="1px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 1px;"><div style="font-size:1px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="100%" rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image"><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="middle" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/a-trump-kim-summit-could-that-resolve-north-koreas-nuke-challenge?autoplay=true" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499376088467-3iaj3slwmol-ad4f9959ca06bba314cc79e92107ab1e.jpg" width="350" height="195.41666666666666" style="width: 350px; height: 195.417px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" border="0" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/a-trump-kim-summit-could-that-resolve-north-koreas-nuke-challenge?autoplay=true" data-title=""></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/a-trump-kim-summit-could-that-resolve-north-koreas-nuke-challenge?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="font-size: 14px;font-family: "century gothic&quot: ;, &quot: ;apple gothic&quot: ;, sans-serif: ;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Video</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 3px 0px 30px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">And, watch more from Bill in our long conversation, below.</span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">How do you think we should solve the issue of North Korean nukes? Send me your thoughts. Thanks!</span></span><br><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">All the best,</span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Malcolm</span></span></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/7/2017

<div><table class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 7, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">China Real Estate</span></span></em></span></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:36px"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>China Property Bubble?</strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#00223a">100s of Cities Bubble Up & </span></em></span><em><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Down</span></span></em></span></span></div><div style="line-height:20px"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><em><span style="color:#00223a">As Policy Makers Press the Levers</span></em></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><br></div><div style="line-height:39px"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#c90000"><em>Analysis from</em></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Robert Ciemniak</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Real Estate Foresight Ltd, Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst</span></span></span></span></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 20px;" class="spacer" height="20"><div style="font-size: 20px; height: 20px;" class="" height="20"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em>A subset of ‘The Coming Collapse of China’ is fear of a bursting China property bubble, as in this 2016 Fortune headline: <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/11/02/china-housing-bubble/" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">‘China Real Estate Bubble: Will It Bring Down the Global Economy?’</a></em></span></span></span></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em>China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. </em></span></span></span></div><div><br></div><div><div><div><div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em>Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities.</em></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div><div><br></div><div><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><em>Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...</em></span></span></span></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="14px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 14px;"><div style="font-size:14px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:19px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div style="text-align:center"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><strong>12M vs 1M PRICE GROWTH (NBS) Price Movements </strong></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align:center"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><strong>Jan 2012 to May 2017</strong></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 0px;" valign="middle" align="center"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499034364133-i4hr3nzsf5-81fa7de793962045a641bff53ea0be55.gif?1499034369" style="width: 356px; height: 299.439px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" class="img-max" data-href="" width="356" border="0" height="299.4392523364486"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 8px;" class="spacer" height="8"><div style="font-size: 8px; height: 8px;" class="" height="8"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table style="" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" class="responsive-table" width="500" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper" valign="top"><table class="responsive-table" width="24%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 2px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://realestateforesight.com/" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499034890455-hvz503ozfao-81fa7de793962045a641bff53ea0be55.jpg" alt="" class="img-max" data-href="http://realestateforesight.com/" style="cursor: pointer; background-image: none; width: 104px; height: 37.8182px;" data-title="" width="104" border="0" height="37.81818181818182"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table class="responsive-table" width="73%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" align="right"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div style="line-height:22px; text-align:left"><span style="font-size:9px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:book antiqua,palatino,palatino linotype,palatino lt std,georgia,serif">Source: Analysis by Real Estate Foresight based on data from NBS, Datastream</span></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="2px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 2px;"><div style="font-size:2px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="9px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 9px;"><div style="font-size:9px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div align="left" style="display:block; line-height:27px; text-align:left; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">This provocative analysis comes from <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/robert-ciemniak" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Robert Ciemniak</a> and his colleagues at <a href="http://realestateforesight.com/" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Real Estate Foresight</a>.</span></em></span></span></div><div style="line-height:28px"><br></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">To better understand what's happening in the animation, watch Robert explain... </span></em></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="9px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 9px;"><div style="font-size:9px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="1px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 1px;"><div style="font-size:1px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="" valign="top"><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:28px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong>How China's City-Level Property Cycles Work</strong></span></span></span></div><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:28px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="font-size:12px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#00223a; font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong>(3 mins)</strong></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="1px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 1px;"><div style="font-size:1px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="middle" align="center"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/china-doesnt-have-a-real-estate-bubble?autoplay=true" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1499035416986-m6wzbet6h1r-81fa7de793962045a641bff53ea0be55.jpg" style="width: 350px; height: 197.167px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/china-doesnt-have-a-real-estate-bubble?autoplay=true" data-title="" width="350" border="0" height="197.16666666666666"></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" class="responsive-table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/china-doesnt-have-a-real-estate-bubble?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="font-size: 14px;font-family: "century gothic&quot: ;,&quot: ;apple gothic&quot: ;,sans-serif: ;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Video</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px;" class="" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">As You Watch the Animation</span></strong></span></span></div><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 19px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Note the few times in the cycles when full-press government policies stop all price rises and even cause declines. This shows pretty dramatically that, for all the hand-wringing, the government has the tools to cool the market when it wants to.</span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 19px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Pay special attention to how Tier 1, 2, & 3 cities change places with each other, depending on how rigorously the cooling policies are implemented in each city.</span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 19px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">For fun, watch how Shenzhen goes off the chart, then spectacularly crashes as the local policies kick in. </span></span></span></li></ul><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">More on How This Works </span></span></strong></span></div><div style="line-height:19px"><div><div><div><div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">A city stimulates its property market. Sales pick up, housing prices rise, and then spike. The local government, under direction from the central government, puts the screws on the market, and prices go down.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Investors and speculators then switch to a city with laxer policies. Prices spike; regulations tighten; prices go down. They move on.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">After a city goes into down-cycle, the time will come to again stimulate its market. And, soon, back come the investors and speculators.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">A pattern seen over and over again all over China.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">But, speculators and investors aside, demand continues from families upgrading to better/larger apartments, replacing old-style housing, moving to other cities and from urbanization generally (not the urbanization rate is still only around 56%).</span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px"><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div><div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Robert Ciemniak & Real Estate Foresight</span></span></strong></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Nobody understands the China real estate market better than <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/robert-ciemniak" target="_top" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Robert Ciemniak</a>, founder and CEO of <a href="http://realestateforesight.com/" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Real Estate Foresight</a> in Hong Kong. Robert is not only a China property guru, but also a Reuters veteran and an international chess master. A wonderful and interesting guy, whom you should get to know.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">And you should also get to know <a href="http://realestateforesight.com/" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Real Estate Foresight</a>. That firm is doing some of the best work on the China property market in the industry.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Robert will go into more detail about the China real estate market later this week. Stay tuned.</span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><strong>Write and tell me if Robert’s analysis has changed your thinking about the China real estate bubble. And, if not, why not?</strong> Look forward to your thoughts. Thanks!</span></span></span></div></div></div></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">All the best,</span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Malcolm</a></span></span></span></div></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

7/4/2017

<div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive_section_1" style="background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249);" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="500" class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 60px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 4, 2017</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:34px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">China Politics</span></span></em></span></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 50px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(237, 239, 227);" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">'Xi Jinping Cannot Dominate </span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:26px"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Power in China'</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:50px"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><em><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">my interview with</span></span></span><strong><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"></span></span></span></strong></em></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><strong><span style="color:#00223a">Cheng Li</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Brookings Institution</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="5px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 5px;"><div style="font-size:5px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;" class=""> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;" class=""> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="500" style="" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="24%" align="left" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="100%" rbl-attribute="image"><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="middle" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Ideas-Rising-Influence-Thinkers-ebook/dp/B071GN9PCW/ref=la_B001HOAC4W_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1498162463&sr=1-1" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1498161710324-cxxvf4o9idi-e112ee7e0412fb758e4be4494b694db9.jpg?1498161713" alt="" width="120" height="180" border="0" class="img-max" data-href="https://www.amazon.com/Power-Ideas-Rising-Influence-Thinkers-ebook/dp/B071GN9PCW/ref=la_B001HOAC4W_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1498162463&sr=1-1" style="cursor: pointer; background-image: none; width: 120px; height: 180px;" data-title=""></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="73%" align="right" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px 0 5px 0;"><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px; text-align:center"><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif">'I</span>f you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy – which leader belongs to which faction.</em></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:25px"><br></div><div style="line-height:25px"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em>'The problem is that in the world outside China, we largely have no clue.’ </em></span></span></span></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 40px 0px 20px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:19px">‘Although the political factions in China are not so clear to the outside world, if you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy - which leader belongs to which faction,’ <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/experts/cheng-li/" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c0392b">Cheng Li</span></a> told me during our discussion of his terrific book, <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c0392b"><em>Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era</em></span></a><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">.</a></div><div style="line-height:31px"><div style="line-height:19px"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px">‘The problem,’ he went on to say, ‘is that in the world outside China we largely have no clue.’ And, not having a clue, we keep making bad China policies, bad China business deals, bad China investments.</div><div style="line-height:19px"><br></div><div style="line-height:19px">What Cheng challenges us to do is to go beyond our superficial assumptions and strive to understand how the Chinese political system really works…</div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="40px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">China is a one–party state, but that does not necessarily mean Chinese leadership is a monolithic group with leaders who have the same ideas, same background, same world views, same politics. No, they're divided.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:31px"><div style="line-height:19px"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:16px"><br></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Because we do not understand them, we sometimes think these people are the same, that they are all authoritarian dictators. The reality is far more complicated. Chinese leaders also divided by different factions or coalitions. Everywhere there are factions.</span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px">These factions are already competing and horse trading in the run-up to the 19<sup>th</sup> Party Congress this fall, where…</div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="40px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:candara,calibri,segoe,"segoe ui",optima,arial,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">The entire leadership will undergo substantial changes, from municipal level, provincial level, and the national level, especially the Central Committee and the Politburo Standing Committee....Somewhere between 70% to 75% of leaders will be replaced. This will be the largest leadership turnover since 1969 during the Cultural Revolution.</span></span></span></span></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px">At stake is whether or not President Xi Jinping can consolidate his power. Cheng contends, 'Xi is a leader still trying to position himself.’ His success at consolidation is far from assured, and he has to be careful with his every move until after the Congress adjourns. Something our government should take into account as we reshape our relationship with China.</div><div style="line-height:31px"><div style="line-height:19px"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">Given the complex and opaque workings of Chinese politics, we are fortunate to have Cheng Li. Cheng is not only the Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, he is also the pre-eminent expert on Chinese elite politics and has been for decades.</div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">I commend to you Cheng’s book <em><a href="https://smile.amazon.com/Chinese-Politics-Jinping-Era-Reassessing/dp/0815726929/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1498189245&sr=8-1&keywords=Chinese+Politics+in+the+Xi+Jinping+Era" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c90000">Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era</span></a><span style="color:#c90000"> </span></em><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em>–</em></span></span> to help us all be a little less clueless about Chinese politics. I likewise invite you to watch my discussion with Cheng, below. </div></div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">And, if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to CHINADebateTV to get exclusive ‘subscriber</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em>–</em></span></span><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">only’ content. It’s free and takes less than a minute to sign up. </span><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/orders/new?o=11019" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c90000">Just click here to subscribe to CHINADebateTV</span></a><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/orders/new?o=11019" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#c90000">.</span></a></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:31px"><div style="line-height:19px"><div style="line-height:19px"><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">All the best,</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">Malcolm</span></span></span></span></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="30px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 30px;"><div style="font-size:30px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 0px 0px 3px;" valign="top" class=""><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: rgb(188, 186, 177); font-size: 0px; background-image: none;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="1px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 1px;"><div style="font-size:1px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:28px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#c90000">China Politics</span></span></em></span></span></div><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:28px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><span style="font-size:20px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="color:#00223a">'Chinese Politics In The Xi Jinping Era'</span></span></strong></span></span></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="1px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 1px;"><div style="font-size:1px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="100%" rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image"><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="middle" style="text-align: center; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era?autoplay=true" title="" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1497993254624-ki9fmmairca-5b34ccb964b33c63273533149553b1ee.jpg?1497993257" width="350" height="197.16666666666666" style="width: 350px; height: 197.167px; cursor: pointer; background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 1" border="0" class="img-max" data-href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era?autoplay=true" data-title=""></a></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="padding: 0px; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" class="padding-copy"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinese-politics-in-the-xi-jinping-era?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="font-size: 14px;font-family: "century gothic&quot: ;, &quot: ;apple gothic&quot: ;, sans-serif: ;color: rgb(245, 247, 238);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-width: 15px 25px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(201, 0, 0);border-radius: 2px;display: inline-block;font-weight: bold;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Video</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

CHINAMacroReporter Archive

July-August 2017

8/21/2017

8/5/2017

7/28/2017

7/23/2017

7/17/2017

7/12/2017

7/8/2017

7/7/2017

7/4/2017

CHINAMacroReporter Archive

July-August 2017

8/21/2017

8/5/2017

7/28/2017

7/23/2017

7/17/2017

7/12/2017

7/8/2017

7/7/2017

7/4/2017

Free Newsletter Signup