2/22/2018

<div style="background-color:#fff;"><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:15px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 30px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:14px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;" color="#b90000"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;"><strong>Happy New Year</strong></span></span> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px; color: rgb(0, 31, 62);">By<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 31, 62);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malcolm Riddell</a></span>· February 22, 2018</span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 45px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 25px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Hi Valued Customer,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Greetings and Happy New Year! </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">May the year of the Dog be a terrific one for you and your family.</span> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #F5F5F3;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#F5F5F3;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 36px;"><strong><span style="line-height: 36px; font-size: 24px;">Happy Year of the Dog!</span></strong></span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 60px;  padding-left: 60px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gif?1518799458" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 480px" width="480"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 45px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 25px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong>I grew up with</strong><strong>Pekingese</strong> and shepherds. And, when I lived in Taiwan, I had five Pekingese - mother, father, and three sons. Constant, wonderful chaos.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong>So, for my Year of the Dog</strong> greeting to you, I wanted a Pekingese. Quintessentially Chinese and a breed I love. I spent a great couple hours browsing the Internet for images to use and found the gif you see here. All that's best about Pekingese in about 10 seconds.</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 50px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">And, thank you for connecting on LinkedIn.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">I am looking forward to getting to know more about you and your work in the coming year.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">All the best,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> </p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Malcolm</span> <br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

2/16/2018

<p><div><div style="color:#020c1b;line-height:100%;font-family:Tahoma, Verdana, Segoe, sans-serif; margin:0 auto; text-align:center;padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:15px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 30px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:14px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong><span style="line-height: 43px; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;">China's Crisis of Success</span></span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px; color: rgb(0, 31, 62);">By<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 31, 62);/* text-decoration: underline; */border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malcolm Riddell</a></span>· February 16, 2018</span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 45px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 25px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Greetings and Happy Year of the Dog! </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Bill Overholt's <em>The Rise of China: How Economic Reform Is Creating a New Superpower</em>, published in 1993, was called 'nonsense' and 'too optimistic.' How did that work out for the reviewers?</span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Now, almost three decades after <em>The Rise of China</em>, Bill believes that China's future has become 'much more uncertain.' And, he addresses his concerns in a new book, <em>China's Crisis of Success</em>.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Bill outlined some the key points from his book recently in an interview with me. And, I have conveyed these below. As you will see, I have let Bill speak for himself. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Bill was right in 1993. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Take a look, and let me know if you think he's right today. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">All the best,</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Malcolm</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:25px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 20px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="90%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 55px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><em><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 14px;">Please invite your friends and colleagues to join the conversation.</span></em></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><em><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 14px;">Tell me anything on your mind about China, including what you think about what you are reading here.</span></em></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"><em><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 14px;">Just reply to this email, or reach me at malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com.</span></em></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #F5F5F3;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#F5F5F3;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid mixed-two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num8" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;min-width: 320px;max-width: 400px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:10px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 20px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:TimesNewRoman, 'Times New Roman', Times, Beskerville, Georgia, serif; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-top: 15px; padding-bottom: 15px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:TimesNewRoman, 'Times New Roman', Times, Beskerville, Georgia, serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 34px; line-height: 51px;"><em><span style="line-height: 51px; font-size: 34px;">China's Crisis of Success </span></em></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">Bill Overholt</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><div style="line-height:15px;font-size:1px"> </div><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1050x300-banner-wo2.jpg?1518802400" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 380px" width="380"></div></div></div></div><div class="col num4" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;max-width: 320px;min-width: 200px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 10px;  padding-left: 10px;"><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Crisis-Success-William-Overholt/dp/1108431992/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/China_27s_Crisis_of_Success_cover.png?1518108307" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: none;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 160px" width="160"></a><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"></div><div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 20px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#b90000;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;color:#b90000;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><em><span style="line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;">Bill Overholt and I recently had a discussion about the points he makes in his new book, China's Crisis of Success. Here are five key points, each corresponding to a section below.</span></em></span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 20px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 25px; padding-bottom: 5px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>1. Fear and simplicity. </strong></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">A 'sense of terrible crisis [was] a prerequisite for an Asian economic take off,' Bill says. </span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Fear. </strong>Following the events that befell Asian countries - such as, the Korean War and the Chinese civil war - each nation faced the real possibility that it might not recover. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">This made leaders more willing to take great risks and their peoples more willing to accept them.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Simplicity.</strong> 'These countries' economies, when they're getting started, are basically agriculture, infrastructure, and some very primitive manufacturing.' This makes the plan simple: 'stimulate growth, build infrastructure, and open and marketize the economy.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>2. Simplicity to complexity - and new crisis.</strong>  With success comes more complex economies, politics, and societies. 'And, then you gradually get to a point of complexity, where there is an economic and political crisis of some kind.' Time for a transformation.</span><br></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>China's leaders</strong> realized this and reached consensus about the need for reform during Hu Jintao's 'lost decade,' 2002 to 2012.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The guide for reform: </strong><em>China 2030</em>, jointly prepared by the World Bank and China and adopted by the Third Plenum in 2013.</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>3. Slower reform, bigger debt.</strong> The decision for leadership: quick reform and lower GDP, or slow reform, maintaining higher GDP but accumulating debt in support of inefficient industries.</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>China chose</strong> slower reform, higher GDP, and increasing debt.</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"> <strong>4. China's leadership</strong><em>wanted</em> Xi to centralize power. We often hear criticism that Xi Jinping is power hungry. But, in fact, Xi's centralizing of power was part of the consensus leadership plan, what they saw as the only way to push reforms through. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>5. But, 'Xi Jinping may</strong> have gone well beyond what the consensus originally intended, and the politicization of the reform may not be exactly what some of the designers of the reform intended.' </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>You will find each</strong> of Bill's points developed below. Let me know what you think.</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 20px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="90%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 55px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 25px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"></span>Bill Overholt</strong> is a Senior Fellow at Harvard’s Asia Center, CEO of AsiaStrat, and a member of CHINADebate's <em>China Analyst Network</em>. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>His career</strong> includes 16 years doing policy research at think tanks, nine years at Harvard University, and 21 years running investment bank research teams.  </span><span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"></span><span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 30px;font-size: 20px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>And, he is the author</strong> of eight books, including his most recent - the terrific, <a style="color: #b90000;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Crisis-Success-William-Overholt/dp/1108431992/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><em><strong>China's Crisis of Success</strong></em></span></a></span><span style="line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"></span></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 36px;"><strong><span style="line-height: 36px; font-size: 24px;">Happy Year of the Dog!</span></strong></span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 60px;  padding-left: 60px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gif?1518799458" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 480px" width="480"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 45px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 25px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong>I grew up with</strong><strong>Pekingese</strong> and shepherds. And, when I lived in Taiwan, I had five Pekingese - mother, father, and three sons. Constant, wonderful chaos.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong>So, for my Year of the Dog</strong> greeting to you, I wanted a Pekingese. Quintessentially Chinese and a breed I love. I spent a great couple hours browsing the Internet for images to use and found the gif you see here. All that's best about Pekingese in about 10 seconds.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong>Happy Year of the Dog.</strong> May it a be terrific one for each of you.</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 15px solid #FFFFFF;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/AsiaStrat_copy_2.png?1518652472" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">1. 'A sense of terrible crisis was a prerequisite for an Asian economic take off'</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/giphy-1.gif?1518110032" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="text-align:center;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#555555;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size:12px; line-height:18px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">'The Asian Miracle countries are all countries </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">that </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">were scared out of their minds' - maybe not this scared</span></span></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 25px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The essence</strong> of the Asian economic miracles: fear and simplicity,' says Bill Overholt.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Political Fear. </strong>'The Asian Miracle countries are all countries that were scared out of their minds.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Japan after World War II.</strong> South Korea after the Korean War. Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War. Singapore after a very traumatic separation from Malaysia. And, China, after what I call a "bad hair" century - a  terrible series of crises and wars, ending with the Cultural Revolution.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin:0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Why is this sense of terrible crisis</strong> a prerequisite for an Asian economic take off? Because it creates a certain political environment.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The leaders</strong> are so scared that they're willing to take great political and economic risks. And, to do bigger things, more dangerous things than a normal leader would.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The people</strong> are conditioned the same way. They're scared that society is going to collapse. That their kids won't have anything to eat. They're willing to accept more stressful change than people in a normal, unfrightened place would accept.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The leaders</strong> offer policies and tell the people, "You need to know this is going to be terribly disruptive. And painful. But, it's going to save our society."'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Economic simplicity. '</strong>The counterpart, on the economic side, is an economic simplicity.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'These countries' economies,</strong> when they're getting started, are basic agriculture, weak infrastructure, and some very primitive manufacturing.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Even the government</strong> can figure out what to do in that situation initially: stimulate growth, build infrastructure, and open and marketize the economy.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent;">'The Asian Miracles</strong><span style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent; line-height: 32px;"> have a succession of models, starting with Japan, each asking: How we can create a great economic take off? The common answer:'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Gradually open</strong> the economy to foreign trade and foreign investment'. </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Gradually marketize</strong> the economy by allowing market prices and other market phenomena to work.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And, build</strong> infrastructure like crazy.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'This works</strong> for quite a while because politically it's relatively simple.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'That doesn't mean</strong> there aren't terrible political struggles, that doesn't mean there isn't a resistance, but it's not the way it would be in Britain, or the  US, or China in normal times when people would push back against these tremendous, rapid changes.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So, all this works</strong> for a while. And then, success comes.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'And, then you </strong>gradually get to a point of complexity, where there is an economic and political crisis of some kind.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Successful economic modernization</strong> has eliminated the fear that once energized the  Asia's Miracle Economies.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Simple economies and politics</strong> have been replaced with immensely complex ones.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Economic and political complexity</strong> are two sides of the same coin.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The rise of large, rich,</strong> efficiently organized economic sectors is the same as the rise of large, rich, powerful interest groups with conflicting interests of immense complexity.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And,</strong> this creates the crisis of success.</span></li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 15px solid #FFFFFF;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/AsiaStrat_copy_2.png?1518652472" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">2. <em>China 2030</em>: 'It's hard to find a more impressive economic plan anywhere else in economic history.'</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/tumblr_mkl1frdgJg1r4mh0bo1_500.gif?1518633390" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="text-align:center;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#555555;"><span style="font-size:18px; line-height:27px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;">'Simple economies and politics have been replaced with immensely complex ones. </span><span style="line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;">And, you gradually get to a point of complexity, where there is an economic and political crisis of some kind.'</span></span></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bill Overholt says, </strong>'China's situation today is a little like that of an entrepreneur, who has invented a good widget, done well in marketing it, the company is taking off, and it's gotten to a certain point where they have to do the IPO.'</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Now, it needs professional</strong> accounting and professional human resources and so on. It needs a transformation in order to keep going. If it succeeds at that transformation, take off continues, and if it doesn't, it flops.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The core issue</strong> for China is dealing with the social complexity that comes with economic success.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 22px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>From simple to complex.</strong> 'China doesn's </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">have simple infrastructure, agriculture, and government manufacturing anymore. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">There are thousands of sectors.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="line-height: 21px;font-size: 12px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'In the power sector,</strong> you have all kinds of different power production systems: coal, solar, wind, hydro. You have conflicts between the producers and the distributors, who are no longer the same companies.'</span></li><li style="line-height: 21px;font-size: 12px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'There are thousands</strong> of software firms in conflicts between the users and the owner, inventors. And, so on.'</span></li><li style="line-height: 21px;font-size: 12px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'These sectors</strong> are big and powerful and assert their interests.'</span></li><li style="line-height: 21px;font-size: 12px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'China's economy</strong> just got too complicated to be managed from a few offices in Beijing anymore.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'China's leadership</strong> recognized the issue; they saw it coming; and they addressed it.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'They decided,</strong> "Instead of trying to make all the major decisions in the NDRC, the National and Development Reform Commission, we're going to have market allocation of resources. It's going to be done automatically by the market, and it’s going to be more efficient."'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'From that premise, </strong>like somebody developing a system of mathematical theorems, they deduced hundreds of individual policies to implement that market allocation of resources. They consulted Nobel Prize winners, they consulted all kinds of private sector actors, as well as government officials.'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The end result</strong> was <em>China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society</em> prepared jointly by the World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It's hard to find</strong> a more impressive economic plan anywhere else in economic history.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><strong><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'China 2030 </span></strong></em><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">was announced as a report of the Third Plenum, with great detail about what they planned to do after Xi Jinping took power.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>But, 'in the politics</strong> and implementation, it's gotten complicated.'</span></li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 15px solid #FFFFFF;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/AsiaStrat_copy_2.png?1518652472" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">3. The slower the reforms, the bigger the debt</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/d843226cf75b4a4abd73e3435c6a5e8b.jpg?1518646110" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid mixed-two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num8" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;min-width: 320px;max-width: 400px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:15px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 30px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 27px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 18px;">Hey, is that Vikram Nehru, formerly of the World Bank, who participated in China 2030?</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="col num4" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;max-width: 320px;min-width: 200px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/47ea7_181209_vikram-nehru.jpg?1518646215" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 180px" width="180"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"></div><div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bill Overholt says,</strong> 'When they started to implement the <em>China 2030 </em>reforms, first, the leadership had a choice:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Rapid reform,</strong> which would mean much slower economic growth', or </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'High economic growth,</strong> which would mean accumulating a lot of debt and slowing the reform process.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'What the Chinese have effectively</strong> chosen is much slower reform in order to keep the economic growth rate up around 6.7%.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So, they've acquired</strong> a substantial problem of debt as they're trying to keep this engine moving really fast.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>How this works.</strong> 'Fast reform would, for instance, involve very rapid reduction of over capacity. Now, the Chinese are reducing over capacity, but not as fast as they might.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'These inefficient</strong> concrete and aluminum factories, and other things, accumulate more debt as they wait the reform process.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Also, and very important politically</strong>, local governments have become incredibly indebted, and you can crack down on that quickly, or you can not allow them to work at all for a considerable period of time.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It's all happening</strong> more slowly than it might have otherwise.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The other political decision</strong> that has slowed reform is that in effect politics has been given priority over a lot of economic reform.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>For example, 'The government talks</strong> about putting these big State Owned Enterprises on a level playing field with others. It talks about putting them on completely market basis.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Then they say,</strong> "we're going to strengthen the role of the party committee inside these enterprises." They make sure the party committee has control over corporate strategy.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Well, is it really</strong> on a market basis if the party controls the strategy has been strengthened?'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Another example.</strong> 'We're going to have the rule of law. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">It's going to be one of the major things of reform.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'But we're going</strong> to strengthen the role of the party commission that oversees the courts’ decisions.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Well, is it really rule of law</strong> if a political commission is ultimately making the decisions?'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'There's a whole series</strong> of such things I talk about in <em>China's Crisis of Success</em> as the "Ten Key Contradictions"' (page 248). </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Reform is going forward,</strong> but it's going forward at a considerably slower pace than it might have, and with much higher priority for political considerations than was expected when <em>China 2030</em> was drafted.'</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 15px solid #FFFFFF;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/AsiaStrat_copy_2.png?1518652472" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">4. Enter Xi Jinping. The reformer?</span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Hu Jintao,</strong> Xi Jinping's predecessor, presided over China from 2002 to 2012 or, what some call, China's 'Lost Decade.'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Under Hu</strong>, China's top decision making body, the then nine-person Standing Committee of the Politburo worked a little bit like the U.S. Supreme Court - one man, one vote,' says Bill Overholt.</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It wasn't even like</strong> the U.S. Federal Reserve, where the Chairman of the Federal Reserve really has tremendous power to drive the outcomes.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So, reform</strong> just wasn't happening, and China's leaders (those with power, whether in or out of office) decided they needed to centralize power to a much greater degree.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>First, 'the leaders</strong> chose a much more charismatic, forceful top leader than Hu - Xi Jinping. And, they:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Reduced</strong> the Standing Committee to seven members from nine.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Lobbed off</strong> the more extreme political views in order to have an easier consensus. For example, they jailed Bo Xilai, who represented one part of the end of the spectrum.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Put the</strong>, so-called, extreme reformers in a second tier, in the Politburo, not in the top Standing Committee.' And,</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Created all these</strong> small "Leading Groups," as they're called, to handle the most important problems, with Xi Jinping in charge of them all.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'A tremendous centralization</strong> in order to get reform going. That's one part of that consensus decision.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Second, they realized</strong> that these reforms are painful, and so there's going to be a lot of pushback from all the important power groups of Chinese society. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">So, they used the Anti-Corruption Campaign as a hammer to push aside these groups who were resisting reform.' </span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The most dramatic</strong> and the first was going after Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang who also ran something called the Petroleum Faction. The Petroleum Faction oversaw controlled energy prices and therefore, hundreds of billions of dollars, which they could extract a share of for themselves.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The final piece</strong> was Xi Jinping himself. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'Xi had a fairly limited personal political base. He's been very concerned that doing painful reforms in the face of tremendous opposition would not work, or maybe not work and get him unseated.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So, he's spent</strong> the first five years using his more centralized powers to eliminate all possible rivals and to try to get all the interest groups as much under control as possible.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The story</strong> has been that the first 5-year term, which just finished recently, is about consolidating power, and the second five years is about implementing the reform process successfully.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'We’ll have to see.'</span></strong></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 15px solid #FFFFFF;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/AsiaStrat_copy_2.png?1518652472" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">5. Has Xi gone too far?</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/sva4x2ckvinpr3np6lfkbj8o66ujyj.jpg?1518812160" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 5px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">'Xi Jinping may have gone well beyond </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">what the consensus originally intended.'</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bill Overholt believes</strong> 'Xi Jinping may have gone well beyond what the consensus originally intended, and the politicization of the reform may not be exactly what some of the designers of the reform intended. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">There's considerable controversy below the surface over whether reform is consistent with the things I mentioned before:'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Strengthening</strong> the party committees rule over corporate strategy', and</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Strengthening</strong> party control over judicial decisions.</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">' </span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'After we find out</strong> how economic reform is going to work, there's still the question of political complexity. I talk about economic complexity, you've got all these different sectors with computing interests. Well, these are political interest groups, too. They're now very different from what they were at the beginning of reform.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>At the beginning</strong> of reform, groups like private enterprises were small. Even the party, itself, was smaller, less organized, less well led.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Now you have</strong> religious groups, and lawyers and journalists, above all I'd say private sector business, a middle class, all sorts of professional groups that are pushing important political demands.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It's just as complicated</strong> to sort those out as it is to sort out the different economic interests. And, just as you can't sort out all the economic issues from the few offices in Beijing, you can't sort out all the political issues from a few offices in Beijing.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'What China</strong> hasn't yet done, is to come to grips with, not even developed the theory, of how to deal with this political complexity.'</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 30px; padding-left: 30px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;text-align:center;color:#001F3E;"><span style="font-size:24px; line-height:36px;"><span style="line-height: 36px; font-size: 24px;"><span style="line-height: 36px; font-size: 24px;"></span>Thank you for reading - and a reminder about the upcoming</span><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); line-height: 36px; font-size: 24px;"><em>China Analyst Network</em></span></span></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 30px; padding-left: 30px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 5px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 33px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);">The top independent - and ever smiling - China analysts come together at the </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 33px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);">China Analyst Network </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"> </span><br></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 55px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 5px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><em><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 28px;">If you would like to learn more the China Analyst Network, shoot me an email at malcolm.riddell-tseng.com</span></em></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 50px; padding-left: 50px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>Thank you for reading!</strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color:#001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Please send me your thoughts at <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</a></span><br data-mce-bogus="1"></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">And, be sure to check out Bill Overholt's new book, <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Crisis-Success-William-Overholt/dp/1108431992" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); text-decoration: underline; font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><em>China's Crisis of Success</em></span>.</a></span><br data-mce-bogus="1"></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> </p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Until next time,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Malcolm</span> <br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></p>

2/8/2018

<div><table class="nl-container" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 320px;Margin: 0 auto;background-color: #f6f6f6;width: 100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height: 100%;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;padding-right: 20px;padding-left: 20px;padding-top: 20px;padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 54px;">China's trade surplus up, </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;/* line-height: 18px; */text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;/* margin-top: .5em; */margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 34px;">RMB weaker</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(185, 0, 0); font-size: 24px; line-height: 46px;"><span style="line-height: 36px; font-size: 24px;"><em>China markets update with TRACK's Bob Savage</em></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 1.5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(0, 31, 62);">By<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 31, 62);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malcolm Riddell</a></span>· February 8, 2018</span></p></div></div></div></div><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Greetings and welcome back!</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">With all the volatility in the U.S. markets, you might have missed important two moves in the Chinese markets - </span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">In trade, surplus way down and imports way up; and, </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">In currency, that trade data causing the biggest fall in the RMB since the August 2015 devaluation. </span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">TRACK's Bob Savage explains what's happening - great analyses below and on his short video - be sure to watch it!</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And a heads up - Harvard's Bill Overholt has just published a terrific new book, <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Crisis-Success-William-Overholt/dp/1108431992" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>China's Crisis of Success</em></a>. Bill and I will be doing a series of interviews on the main points starting next week. Don't miss these.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And, as always, let me know what your thinking.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">All the best,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Malcolm</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">Please invite your friends and colleagues to join the conversation.</p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">Tell me anything on your mind about China, including what you think about what you are reading here.</p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">Just reply to this email, or reach me at malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">China market update with </span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">TRACK's Bob Savage </span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Overnight,</strong> the world moved a little bit away from its U.S.-centric obsession about equity volatility in the United States and around the world to what's going on in China', says Bob Savage, CEO of TRACK. Why?</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><ol style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>In January,</strong> China's trade surplus fell sharply, and imports skyrocketed.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The trade data</strong> and other factors caused the RMB to weaken 1% - the most since the August 2015 devaluation that shocked global markets.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Contributing </strong>to RMB weakness: the HNA technical credit default</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">.</span></li></ol></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="button-container center " style="padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top:10px; padding-bottom:10px;"><div style="color: #001F3E; background-color: transparent; border-radius: 3px; -webkit-border-radius: 3px; -moz-border-radius: 3px; max-width: 508px; width: 468px;width: auto; border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; padding-top: 5px; padding-right: 20px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 20px; font-family: Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: center; mso-border-alt: none;"><span style="font-size:16px;line-height:19px;"><span style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 28px;" data-mce-style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 40px;">Watch Bob Savage's China markets update</span></span><span style="font-size:16px;line-height:19px;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 48px;">(6:20)</span></span></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/chinas-trade-surplus-up-rmb-weaker" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/Bob_Savage_Feb08-18.jpg?1518227567" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: none;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></a></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">1. China Trade Surplus Down, Imports Up</span><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;"></span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/giphy-14.gif?1518145219" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="text-align:center;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#555555;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size:12px; line-height:18px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">I said trade surplus, not 'Trading Places'</span></span></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Here is analysis from TRACK's Bob Savage.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">In January, </span></strong></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'China's trade surplus</strong> fell to $20 billion from $50 billion, and </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Imports</strong> skyrocketed 35 %, year-on-year, shocking market watchers.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'There's an obsession</strong> with watching what goes on with Chinese trade. China trade is a barometer for global demand for goods. Any change in that trade balance is an indication that something's changing there. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And, China's falling trade surplus in January shocked people.' says Bob. 'There are two explanations for it.'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'First is the more boring</strong> seasonal effect of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, where people realize they'll need goods over February and March but that they're going to be on holiday for a lot of February -  so, they better just get the stuff in in January. Some of the imported goods came that way.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>But, 'a</strong> <strong>lot of</strong> theses imports are in commodities and that just means that Chinese inventory holdings of commodity goods went up.'</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'That turned</strong> commodities prices bearish today.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong> 'People saw</strong> that the Chinese bought a lot of commodities in January, and it means that they're not going to buy a lot in February or probably March as they draw down those inventories.'</span><br><br></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Second - </strong>and more important in the long run for its potential impact on China's current account - is this.</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Overall</strong> there's been a 3-1/2% appreciation of the RMB against the dollar.' That's made imports cheaper.</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'And guess what</strong> the Chinese did? They imported more goods, because they felt richer.'</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Now, the United States</strong> knows a lot about how when you make consumers feel richer with cheaper imports: they import more goods and the trade deficit gets worse.'</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Why is this important?</strong> 'China wants to stoke domestic demand,' to become a consumer-driven economy. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">But if it succeeds, this 'has an implication for whether or not China continues to be a current account surplus country.'</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>If China is</strong> 'truly successful in creating domestic consumer demand - like that in Europe, Japan and the United States - then, it's probably going to start running a current account deficit, unless it actually targets trade.' </span></li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">2. RMB weakens most since 2015 devaluation</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/coelho_ameac_CC_A7a.gif?1518145036" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Unexpected weakness</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Here is analysis from TRACK's Bob Savage.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The RMB </strong>did not like the trade data at all, and it weakened immediately - </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">over 1% today.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>It fell 'even though</strong> the official rate set every morning suggested that the RMB should, instead, be slightly stronger today.' </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'This is the most</strong> the RMB has traded off since August 2015 devaluation.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Remember the August 2015</strong> devaluation and headlines like, 'China Stuns the World'? Here's another reason for the weakening related to this.</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent;">'The Chinese </strong>were looking at where the RMB<span style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent; line-height: 32px;"> has traded.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The RMB</strong> has been trading below 6.30 now for over a week, and it looked like yesterday it was trading at 6.25 for a brief shining moment.' </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Many see 6.20 and 6.25</strong> as very important levels because that's where the RMB was at the August of 2015 devaluation - from there you had the 2% devaluation that unsettled world markets.'</span></li></ul><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'But, it was also an</strong> important level, because that's where many at the time thought that the competitiveness of Chinese exporters and some of the growth that they needed to target was under threat by having the RMB too strong at that level.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li></ul></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/CNYchart.jpg?1518132635" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The issue:</strong> Is the RMB weakness now putting in a floor below 6.30? </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">The market is going to really watch closely. </span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>If the RMB</strong> goes to 6.40 or 6.50 again, then that has implications for the rest of the foreign exchange world, particularly Korea and Europe.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>What to watch.</strong> 'Today is an exciting day. I'm paying a lot of attention to see if 6.30 is the new bottom for the dollar-RMB relationship, and to see if there are going to be more concerns about higher interest rates and the debt rollover of some of the more leveraged corporations in China.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 28px; line-height: 42px;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;"></span>3. HNA default contributed to RMB weakness</span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Another factor </strong>weakening the RMB was news overnight that HNA had a technical default, which also highlights the need for cheap money for rollover debt.  </span><br></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>So, also, watch</strong> 'the lenders to HNA - Deutsche Bank being probably one of the largest - were immediately under the scope.'</span><br></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Deutsche Bank</strong> shares were hit overnight, and the euro was hit because the banking sector in Europe was under the gun.'</span></li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid mixed-two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num4" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;max-width: 320px;min-width: 200px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/hqdefault.jpg?1517609928" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 200px" width="200"></div></div></div></div><div class="col num8" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;min-width: 320px;max-width: 400px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/profiles/bob_s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bob Savage</a> covers a lot more than China. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">You can get his insights on global markets every business day in <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><em><a style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Morning Track.</a></em></span> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Have a look and then<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><a style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> subscribe here</a></span> (it's free).</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid mixed-two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num4" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;max-width: 320px;min-width: 200px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:15px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Crisis-Success-William-Overholt/dp/1108431992" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/China_27s_Crisis_of_Success_cover.png?1518108307" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: none;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 200px" width="200"></a></div></div></div></div><div class="col num8" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;min-width: 320px;max-width: 400px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 22px;line-height: 26px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Crisis-Success-William-Overholt/dp/1108431992" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 22px; line-height: 26px;"><em>China's Crisis of Success</em></span></a></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;">Terrific new book</span></span> by Bill Overholt, senior fellow at the Harvard Asia Center, CEO of AsiaStrat, and member CHINADebate's <em>China Analyst Network</em>.</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><strong>‘China is a little like an entrepreneur who has invented a good widget, and the company is taking off. But, now needs things like professional accounting, human resources, and so on – it needs a transformation to keep growing. If it succeeds at that transformation, the take off continues. And, if it doesn't, it flops.’</strong> Bill Overholt</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Thank you for reading!</strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Please send me your thoughts at <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</a></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And, email me if you would like to learn more about the <strong><em>China Analyst Network</em></strong> - it's launching soon!</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Be sure to check out Bob Savage's <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Morning Track</strong></a>!</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Until next time,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Malcolm</span> <br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

2/3/2018

<p><div><div style="background-color:#fff;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:20px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:14px;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 43px; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;">China's RMB oil futures exchange - the 'story of the year'!</span></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0); line-height: 43px;"> <em>(huh?)</em></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px; color: rgb(0, 31, 62);">By<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 31, 62);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malcolm Riddell</a></span>· February 3, 2018</span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Greetings and Welcome Back! </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">There's a lot to follow in China. And, I had missed reports about the opening of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange or INE, likely this quarter.</span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">But, during my interview with Bob Savage, the well-respected analyst of global markets and CEO of TRACK, he told me the INE could be the 'story of the year.'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">That's a big - and interesting - claim about something that seems like one more ho-hum Chinese entity.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Bob explained that the INE will create the an RMB-denominated oil futures contract. The first such contract in a petrodollar world, where China is largest crude oil importer. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">If RMB oil contracts - even just for trade with China - catch on, then the whole global oil trading regime will change. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">And, given the massive size of the global oil trade, a shift from dollars to RMBs will both erode the dollar as a reserve currency, and push the RMB closer its goal of becoming a full reserve currency.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Story of the year? We'll have to watch. But, now, thanks to Bob, I at least know to watch.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">All the best,</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Malcolm</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Please invite your friends and colleagues to join the conversation. </span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Tell me anything on your mind about China, including what you think about what you are reading here. </span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Just reply to this email, or reach me at malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com.</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"> </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">1. China's new RMB oil futures exchange - the 'story of the year'! <em>(huh?)</em></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/giphy-7.gif?1517351666" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="text-align:center;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#555555;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size:12px; line-height:18px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">The Shanghai International Energy Exchange:</span></span></div><div style="text-align:center;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#555555;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size:12px; line-height:18px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">b</span></span><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size:12px; line-height:18px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">lowing up more than oil</span></span></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Watch for the opening </strong>of The Shanghai International Energy Exchange - acronym: INE - this quarter. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'<strong>Story of the year'</strong> and 'game changer' are what Bob Savage, CEO of TRACK and member of our soon-to-be launched <em>China Analyst Network,</em> calls the INE. And, the impact goes way beyond oil to bolstering the RMB's challenge to the dollar.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>About the INE. </strong>The INE will offer the first oil futures contract denominated in RMB, instead of U.S. dollars.</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Chinese buyers</strong> will lock in oil prices and pay in RMB, instead of U.S. dollars.</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Oil producers</strong> will be able to sell oil to China - the largest oil importer - in RMB, instead of dollars.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And, the INE</strong> will establish a third oil price benchmark (after the WTI and Brent) in RMB, instead of U.S. dollars.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>(note:</strong> the 'RMB, instead of U.S. dollars' - that's crux of what follows.)</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong>The INE sounds a little ho-hum </strong>until Bob explains its impact on the relationship of commodities and currency: <br></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong>The last time the world </strong>saw a reserve currency change was during World War Two when the dollar formally replaced the British pound as the universal medium of global exchange in the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement.</p></li><li style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong>But the<em> de facto</em> change </strong>began<strong> '</strong>after World War One, when more and more contracts started to be denominated in dollars instead of pounds. And, that played a part in the dollar's replacing the pound as the world's reserve currency.'  </p></li><li style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong>'The question to ask is:</strong> Will the U.S. begin to see an erosion of its reserve currency status when more and more contracts start to be denominated in RMB?' </p></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Already, the open interest</strong> of the commodity contracts listed in Shanghai in Renminbi far outstrips anything in the rest of the world's commodities futures in commodities combined.' </span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'What we're beginning</strong> to recognize is what has <em>de facto</em> already been the truth: that China's import of a huge proportion of the world's commodities changes the way currencies work.' </span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'As more trade</strong> becomes denominated in Renminbi and more futures contracts become denominated in Renminbi, then the Renminbi becomes a more viable alternative to the dollar, and prices begin to revolve around whether the Renminbi, not the dollar, is holding its value or not.'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Enter the INE.</strong> </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'The denomination of oil futures contracts in Renminbi exemplifies the role of commodities in the geopolitical fears about the dollar weakness and about the role of China in that weakness.'</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>This is why</strong> the opening of the INE could 'exacerbate the dollar weakness story because it's an example of the dollar continuing down the path of eroding its reserve status.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>After the INE opens</strong>, watch:</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'How much volume</strong> it does and how quickly it expands.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'How many other</strong> countries start denominating oil contracts with China in Renminbi. The Saudis have said they might. The Iranians already do. The Russians already do. But, if OPEC, as a whole, starts to denominate both in dollars and Renminbi, it's a game-changer.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'For all these reasons, </strong>the opening of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, the INE, could be the biggest story of the year.'</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The impact</strong> might not happen dramatically or immediately, but over time, over maybe the next five years, the opening of the INE could be seen as crossing the Rubicon.' </span></li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid mixed-two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num4" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;max-width: 320px;min-width: 200px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/hqdefault.jpg?1517609928" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 200px" width="200"></div></div></div></div><div class="col num8" style="display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;min-width: 320px;max-width: 400px;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/profiles/bob_s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bob Savage</a> covers a lot more than China. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">You can get his insights on global markets every business day in <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><em><a style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Morning Track.</a></em></span> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Have a look and then<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><a style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> subscribe here</a></span> (it's free).</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/TrackLOGO.png?1517352151" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 120px" width="120"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">2. U.S. inflation in an RMB world</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth " align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/Inflation.gif?1517545742" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 500px" width="500"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="text-align:center;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#555555;"><font color="#ff0000"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">That twisty thing is the RMB after it replaces the dollar</span></font></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bob Savage,</strong> CEO of TRACK, riffed on U.S. inflation if we one day lived in an RMB world.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; background-color: transparent; line-height: 32px;"><strong>If the RMB</strong> moves toward replacing the dollar, then 'the locus of attention about inflation, particularly global inflation, will change from 'what is the policy of the Fed?' to 'what is the policy of the People's Bank of China?' - and, to what is the value of the Renminbi rather than what is the value of the dollar.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It really moves</strong> U.S. inflation from being under Fed control. </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Instead,</strong> 'you have to keep an eye on Chinese demand for commodities. That will set the rates for a lot of commodities that we're dependent upon.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'<strong>And, if Chinese</strong> demand sets the rates, the currency relationship with China will likewise matter to the U.S. in a much more dramatic way.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'<strong>If China sets the commodities rates, </strong>U.S. inflation from imports will be more dramatic. </span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Up until now,</strong> import inflation in the U.S. has been muted because we are blessed with lots of commodities of our own. And, the pricing of those commodities on a world market has never really been part of the story because everything that we buy and sell has been denominated in dollars.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'But, if we start pricing </strong>those commodities in RMB terms, then that exchange rate becomes terribly important to the Fed.'</span></li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" height="0px" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span> </span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left:0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">3. Pieter Bottelier on </span><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">'</span><span style="font-size: 28px; line-height: 42px;">It's the politics, stupid!' - </span><span style="font-size: 28px; line-height: 42px;">Tony Saich on Xi Jinping </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num6" style="max-width: 320px;min-width: 300px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/Pieter_P._Bottelier.jpg?1508561490" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 270px" width="270"></div></div></div></div><div class="col num6" style="max-width: 320px;min-width: 300px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/sino-saich-articleInline.jpg?1517364612" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 270px" width="270"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid two-up "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num6" style="max-width: 320px;min-width: 300px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Pieter Bottelier</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">School of Advanced International Studies</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="col num6" style="max-width: 320px;min-width: 300px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Tony Saich</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">Harvard Kennedy School</p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"> Not long ago, you read here Pieter Bottelier's thoughts on how the <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://app.robly.com/archive?id=ae2918a114151e7cfcc36df1c32b0fe6&v=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Shift from pragmatism to ideology could make China's managed economy harder to manage.'</a></span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Pieter, in turn, read here <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://app.robly.com/archive?id=a98e63aa0e0e918413280945a26d4f0d&v=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'It's the politics, stupid!' - Tony Saich on Xi Jinping'</a>, and sent Tony and me this comment...</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Thanks for sending me</strong> your notes on your interview with Tony Saich and a link to Tony’s Ash Center essay,<a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files/what_does_xi_jinping_dream_about.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 'What Does General Secretary Xi Jinping Dream About'</a> (which I hadn’t seen). All very interesting!'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The thought that</strong> crossed my mind when reading this excellent material is that Xi’s efforts to restore or establish Party control over everything may alienate many top intellectuals and key government administrators in China to the point that they dissociate themselves from Xi’s domestic political agenda and somehow “leave" the system.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'If that happens,</strong> as I think it will, it would weaken China’s capacity for governing and ultimately lead to something worse than Tony’s “Yeltsin scenario”.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'I am reminded of Wu Jinglian’s</strong> warnings that (Suharto-style) “crony capitalism” will result if serious economic reforms are not pursued. (I copy this to Tony).'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">Coming soon from CHINADebate...</span></p></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/C-A-N_LOGO_1.png?1517370439" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 30px; line-height: 45px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Insights from top independent China analysts...brought together at the </span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 30px; line-height: 45px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 38px; line-height: 57px;">China Analyst Network</span>.</span><span style="font-size: 30px; line-height: 45px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"></span></p></div></div></div><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">If you would like to learn more the <em>China Analyst Network</em>, shoot me an email at <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="malcolm.riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malcolm.riddell-tseng.com</a></span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;padding-right: 20px;padding-left: 20px;padding-top: 20px;padding-bottom: 0;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">4. Letters to the Editor:  </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">'Is Alibaba a total fraud, or </span><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">just a partial fraud?' </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Not long ago you read </strong>here <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://app.robly.com/archive?id=12052bc14761969becc00b1e1869b3fe&v=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'</a></span><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://app.robly.com/archive?id=12052bc14761969becc00b1e1869b3fe&v=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Is Alibaba a total fraud, or </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">just a partial fraud?' </span></a></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 22px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>I heard from some</strong> of you who liked the post, with comments like:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Wow!</strong> Great stuff here Malcolm.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'An excellent</strong> piece! Thank you.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'Great reading!'</span></strong></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And, some</strong> who didn't:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'This piece is based</strong> on partial to non-information, and hence the outcome is merely provocative without much sense. The gap between US and China will get bigger with this type of report and analysis based on bias. It reminds me of the theory that China’s economy would collapse some 10-15 years ago.'</span></li></ul><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'I guess it</strong> won’t surprise you if I don’t share the opinions expressed in this Anne-Bob interview. It’s perhaps useful for debate, but that’s the most positive thing I can say about it.'</span></li></ul><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'This is way beneath</strong> the quality of your work. Not enough facts, too much conspiracy theory, too many assumptions and innuendos, a whole lot of bias from one man in Cleveland. I love Cleveland, I was born and raised there, but this is just another one of those guys like Gordon Chang who have been predicting the fall of the Chinese economy in the next two years for the last 20 years. I'm not suggesting there are not problems within the system, challenges ahead and so forth. However, what they've created on such a short time, starting from almost zero is nothing short of an economic miracle. It took us 10 years and how many billions to build out the second avenue subway, and how many bridges, subways and tunnels have they built on that time period. There are costs to that type of growth, but personally I think they will continue to do well for another 5 years and then maybe have a correction like EVERY other economy in the world. Hence, tell him to keep writing and sooner or later he will be able to say I told you so.'</span> </li></ul></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Please send me your thoughts on anything we publish, <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</a></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">I love praise but critical comments are more useful. Thanks!</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:26px; line-height:39px;">Thank you for reading - and a reminder about the upcoming <em>China Analyst Network</em></span></div></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center  autowidth  fullwidth " style="padding-right: 0px;  padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center  autowidth  fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1424295801-yupypdoksp8v18hhicm5.jpg?1517499165" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div class=""><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 33px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">The top independent - and happy - China analysts come together at the China Analyst Network </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">painting by Yue Minjun</span></p></div></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div class=""><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Thank you for reading!</strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Please send me your thoughts at <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</a></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And, email me if you would like to learn more about the <strong><em>China Analyst Network</em></strong> - it's launching soon!</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Be sure to check out Bob Savage's <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://trackresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Morning Track</strong></a>!</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Until next time,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Malcolm</span> <br></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent;border-left: 0px solid transparent;border-bottom: 0px solid transparent;border-right: 0px solid transparent;padding-top:0px;/* padding-bottom:30px; */padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 30px;padding-bottom: 5px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #B90000;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth " style="padding-right: 10px;  padding-left: 10px;"><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/cdn.png?1510958887" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: none;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 240px" width="240"></a><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider " style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 20px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #b90000;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></p>

1/17/2018

<div><div style="color:#020c1b;line-height:100%;font-family:Tahoma, Verdana, Segoe, sans-serif; margin:0 auto; text-align:center;padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jan 17, 2018</span></div></div><div style="background-color:#fff;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:20px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:14px;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 43px; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;">'Is Alibaba a total fraud, or </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 43px; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;">just a partial fraud?'</span></span><span style="font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0); background-color: transparent; line-height: 43px;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px; color: rgb(0, 31, 62);">By<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 31, 62);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malcolm Riddell</a></span>· January 17, 2018</span></p></div></div><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Greetings and Welcome Back! </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Chances are you haven't heard of Bob Wittbrot or his blog, <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Deep Throat IPO.'</a> If that's the case, then I have done you a tremendous service by introducing them today.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">I came across Bob on a <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">podcast</a> on the <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JCap</a> website. The interviewer was <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/team.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anne Stevenson-Yang</a>, the esteemed China analyst and JCap co-founder, who says:</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">         'Partly by virtue of being in Cleveland, and away from the                    coast, and largely by virtue of his forensic and accounting                  skills, Bob has done some of the most provocative work                        available on Alibaba, Tencent, SoftBank and other stocks.'</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Provocative? Incendiary might be more apt. Here's what's covered below.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>1. Note to the PBOC: 'Keep printing RMB or crash China's economy.' </strong></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"></span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>2. 'Is Alibaba a total fraud, or just a partial fraud?' </strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">  <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>3. 'If the Chinese economy is fake....'</strong> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">4. 'Tencent...10 Cents is About What It's Worth.'</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Bob and Anne have distinctive voices, and I have let them speak for themselves (with some editing for clarity). But, with this is the risk that my excerpting from a 45-minute podcast might distort meaning. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 18px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">The solution: go to the<a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> JCap website</a> and listen for yourself. And, while you're there, listen to the other podcasts (and read the reports, too). With Anne moderating and commenting, they are all terrific. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">And, after you finish here, go to Bob's <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2018/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Deep Throat IPO' </a>blog. You will find the careful analyses that back up Bob's assertions here about China's economy, Alibaba, and Tencent, as well as his take on global economic issues and more.<br><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">So, read on. And, let me know what you think about all that Bob and Anne have to say.</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Malcolm</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><br data-mce-bogus="1"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">BTW Anne gave me permission to use the contents of her podcast, but isn't responsible, in any way, for what follows.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">  </p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Please invite your friends and colleagues to join the conversation. </span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Tell me anything on your mind about China, including what you think about what you are reading here. </span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Just reply to this email, or reach me at malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com.</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"> </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">1. Note to the PBOC: </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">'Keep printing </span><span style="font-size: 26px; background-color: transparent; line-height: 39px;">RMB or crash China's economy'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/Animated_GIF_-_Find__26_Share_on_GIPHY.gif?1516129907" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">China will make 'minimum payments forever'on its debt. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Anne Stevenson-Yang</span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'China's debt </strong>has expanded faster than any economy in history other than the Weimar Republic,'  say Bobs Wittbrot, who writes the <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2017/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Deep Throat IPO'</a> blog.</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>To '900% of</strong> productive GDP.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Productive GDP</strong> doesn't include those bridges to nowhere, and acres of steel rusting in the field, and vacant apartments.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>At the same time, </strong>'the money supply has quintupled in the last six to seven years.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The choice. </strong>'With that massive amount of debt, China’s Central Bank has a choice - either keep funding it, or cause a recession.'</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So far,</strong> whether it's the Bank of Japan or PBoC or The Fed, they've all chosen to keep printing money.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The result for China.</strong> 'The cost of debt service in China exceeds incremental GDP every year now,' says <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JCap</a>'s Anne Stevenson-Yang, citing <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Victor Shih</a>.</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'That just</strong> demonstrates that the choice is either print money or crash. Maybe not crash, but at least contract growth very dramatically.'</span></li><li style="line-height: 21px;text-align: left;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 12px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 12px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And, continuing</strong> to print money </span></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">means China will make 'm</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">inimum payments forever' on its debt.</span></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> </p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>So, where's all that money going?</strong> Everywhere 'there are systemic and political barriers that keep that money from going into what I call the real economy,' says Bob.  </span><br></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Instead,</strong> this money 'goes into the banking system, T-bills, paper assets, and things like that.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'That's why you</strong> don't see gigantic leaps and bounds of GDP in China and around the world.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'All the money</strong> is going into asset inflation rather than CPI and wage inflation.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The people like you</strong> and me, who actually have jobs and go to work, we don't get that money.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And, that's '</strong>why companies like Alibaba and SoftBank are creatures of the post global financial crisis debt explosion,' Anne suggests.  </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">2.'Is Alibaba a total fraud, or just a partial fraud?'</span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"></span></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth fullwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center autowidth fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/Alibaba_Founder_Jack_Ma_Has_Set_a_New_Bar_for_Tech_CEO_Weird_%281%29.gif?1516125713" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:180%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Do you mean Michael Jack-ma-son?</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; line-height: 25px;">'Alibaba Founder Jack Ma Has Set a New Bar for Tech CEO Weirdness' <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://gizmodo.com/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-set-a-new-bar-for-tech-ceo-1803777838" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gizmodo</a></span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bob:</strong> 'One of the things that just floored me was, right before Alibaba's IPO, Jackie Reese's, the Yahoo technology Officer, resigned from Alibaba's board, citing Section 11B,  the securities fraud statute.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So she</strong> basically resigned from Alibaba stating that she didn't want to be caught in the fray with the SEC securities fraud rules.' </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'I'd never</strong> seen anything like that before in my life.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Anne:</strong> 'What do you think of Alibaba overall? Do you think that they're just totally a fraud? Or partially? Or what?</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bob:</strong> ‘No, I think they're a mess. And, they're puffing about an awful lot of things.’</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'I think there</strong> is actually a business there. But, it's not even a half-Korean-dollar market cap business.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'I valued them</strong> at $7 bucks a share - and everybody laughed at me. And, they still do because it's, what, $190 today?'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Then,</strong> I thought, well, after Valeant and Philidor, you can cut that down as well. So my last valuation was that it's a Blutarsky value, you know, "0.0."'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Anne:</strong> 'What do you think has happened? The Chinese reverse takeover frauds back in 2009 and 2010 were $300 to $500 million dollar companies. Now, Alibaba is a $500 billion dollar company. What do you think has happened to enable that?'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bob:</strong> 'A couple of things.'</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><em><strong>      First,</strong></em>'these deceptions are getting much more sophisticated.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It’s tough</strong> to validate much of the information that's in the filings.' </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>That means,</strong> 'it's really hard to challenge them because you just don't have the data.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'So, a lot</strong> of the people just take it at face value.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><em><strong>      Second,</strong></em> 'the big U.S. investment banks give a layer of credibility        that's almost unpierceable.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'When JP Morgan</strong> or Goldman puts their name on it, people don't challenge that.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'They look at it,</strong> and they say, ‘Hey, it's got a stamp of approval by these people who are much smarter than me. So, I got to buy it.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>‘The crux of it:</strong> All these things have gotten bigger and bigger because they're sponsored by American investment banks or Swiss investment banks or some other ones.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">3. 'If the Chinese economy is fake....'</span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"></span></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/giphy-77.gif?1516130457" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;">China to the world: 'Fooled you!'[?]</span></span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Anne:</strong> 'One of the things that has struck me since the last financial crisis is the degree to which the international markets are interrelated or sewn together in a way that they weren't even in 2009, 2010, much less in 2002.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>What 'reminded</strong> me of that was the Chinese depreciation of the RMB in August of 2015.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The RMB depreciated </strong>by 'just by 3%, which really shouldn't have been a huge deal; </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">yet, it had massive repercussions in markets across the world.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>What this</strong> could this interrelationship of markets 'mean in the future if China does have a debt crisis?'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Bob:</strong> There was 'a lot of the fear was that the PBoC couldn't protect its currency anymore and that the RMB would crash.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>This is</strong> because of 'the growth in debt and in the supply of money' in China.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Money is a</strong> commodity - the RMB's only good as the strength of the Chinese economy.'</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'If the Chinese</strong> economy is fake, to use a term of art today, and it's loaded down with debt and the amount of RMB printed is increasing dramatically, then the </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">RMB is really worth a nickel (5 cents) not 15 cents.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>If that's the case, </strong>'that would put the whole Chinese economy at a discount.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong> And, 'all the</strong> Chinese assets and Chinese wealth would be discounted dramatically on a global basis.'</span></li></ul></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:26px; line-height:39px;">4. 'Tencent...10 Cents is About What It's Worth'</span></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/giphy-78.gif?1516130914" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:150%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> 'All one needs to know about Tencent is that the reported active users who updated their accounts in the last month exceed the number of people on the Internet in China.' Anne Stevenson-Yang</span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>In the middle</strong> of 2015. Bob wrote a post entitled: <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/search?q=tencent" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Tencent...10 Cents is About What It's Worth.'</a></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'I compared Tencent</strong> to Sony, and other players in the gaming <span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">business,</span> and again everything was a partial disclosure when you're looking at Tencent.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The general</strong> theme [of the post] was that you couldn't justify the revenues that Tencent was generating based on the limited user base. They didn't sell hardware, a lot of their gaming was given away, yet they were posting these significant revenue gains.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'To this day,</strong> I haven't been able to figure out how you get all that money when really nobody's paying you to play the games. They say they are, but I don't know. '</span><br></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Anne:</strong>  'All one needs to know about Tencent is that the reported active users who updated their accounts in the last month <span style="text-decoration: underline; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">exceed the total number of people on the Internet in China</span>.'</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'At the very least,</strong> it's not a useful statistic to keep reporting.'</span></li></ul></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:26px; line-height:39px;">Thank you for reading - and a reminder</span></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth fullwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center autowidth fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/_E8_AE_B8_E5_BE_B7_E5_A5_87%28Xu_Deqi%29-www.kaifineart.com-2-3_copy.jpg?1516146603" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; line-height: 16px;">painting by <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="http://www.xudeqi.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xu Deqi</a>, one of my new favorite artists.</span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Thank you for reading.</strong></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Please send me your thoughts at <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</a></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And be sure to visit:</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.jcapitalresearch.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Anne Stevenson-Yang's JCap website.</strong></a></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Listen to Bob Wittbrot's and all the other terrific podcasts. And, have a look at the excellent reports posted there. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2017/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Bob Wittbrot's 'Deep Throat IPO' blog.</strong></a></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">You'll find in-depth analyses, not just on the topics covered here, but also on challenges to the global economy and more. You may not always agree with him, but you won't look at these issues the same way again. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Until next time,</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Malcolm</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

1/10/2018

<div><div style="color:#020c1b;line-height:100%;font-family:Tahoma, Verdana, Segoe, sans-serif; margin:0 auto; text-align:center;padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="padding:20px 0;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jan 10, 2018</span></div></div><div style="background-color:#fff;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #fff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:20px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:14px;font-family:'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 43px; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;">'It's the politics, stupid!' </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 43px; font-size: 36px; color: rgb(185, 0, 0);"><span style="font-size: 36px; line-height: 43px;">Tony Saich on Xi Jinping </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 14px;text-align: center;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px; color: rgb(0, 31, 62);">By<span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px;"><a style="color: rgb(0, 31, 62);text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Malcolm Riddell</a></span>· January 10, 2018</span></p></div></div><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Greetings! </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 27px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">My conversation with Harvard's <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://ash.harvard.edu/anthony-saich-directors-page" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tony Saich</a> ranged from financial reform to the Belt Road Initiative to Xi Jinping. And, this last, Xi Jinping, is what we'll discuss today in three parts:</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>1. 'China goes private.' </strong>Tony discusses the Xi and the Party's move toward toward greater control of private business, especially the tech/Internet sectors. </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>2. 'It's the politics, stupid.' </strong>Tony explains why Xi focused first on trying to bend Chinese society and the State to his and the Party's will.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"><strong>3. 'The State and the Party.'</strong> Tony details the problems the Party has in getting the State to implement its policies, and why.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">I'll be reporting soon on the other issues we covered. In the meantime, have a look at Tony's essay, <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files/what_does_xi_jinping_dream_about.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'What Does General Secretary Xi Jinping Dream About.'</a> Excellent!</span><br><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">So, read on.  And, let me know what you think about all that Tony has to say.</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 27px;">Malcolm</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">  </p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Please invite your friends and colleagues to join the conversation. </span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Tell me anything on your mind about China, including what you think about what you are reading here. </span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><em><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Just reply to this email, or reach me at malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com.</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"> </span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:5px; padding-bottom:5px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">1. The Party goes private</span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"></span></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth fullwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center autowidth fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/http-_252F_252Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod-us.s3.amazonaws.gif?1515011686" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;">The State & Party's technical prowess is somewhat limited.</span></span></span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="line-height:1.5em;word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The big idea. </strong>Having made headway in exerting Party control over Chinese society, the economy, and the State, Xi Jinping has his sights on gaining more control of private business, especially the tech/Internet sectors, in two ways:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The government</strong> may buy (or receive 'donated') shares and get board seats. </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>And, </strong>Chinese Communist Party Committees embedded in private companies would have a say in major decisions. </span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">What could possibly go wrong?</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The background. </strong>‘The Chinese State didn’t have the capacity to develop things like Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and so forth,’ says Harvard's Tony Saich.</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>‘So, it outsourced </strong>its Internet and hi tech development to the private sector.’</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong>Since then, the government</strong> has pretty much left these and other tech/Internet companies alone. But, that could be changing. According to <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-pushes-for-a-direct-hand-in-chinas-big-tech-firms-1507758314" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Wall Street Journal</em></a> reporting in October 2017:</p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The Chinese government</strong> is </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">pushing some of its biggest tech companies—including Tencent, Weibo and a unit of Alibaba—to offer the state a stake in them and a direct role in corporate decisions.' </span></li><li style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'“This is the thing</strong> that keeps Pony up at night,” says a Tencent executive about Mr. Ma, the company’s chief executive.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Even if the plan</strong> doesn't go through, the government has another way to gain control: </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">'[A]t Mr. Xi’s urging</strong><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">, a campaign is under way to set up party units in private companies.' </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">This will give Party representatives authority to approve or veto major decisions, say sources, other than WSJ.</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Tony Saich gives context:</strong></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">This 'reassertion of State and Party control in the private sector is something we've seen before.' </span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>‘Essentially</strong>, when the private sector has developed in an area and has become successful, the State and the Party move back into that sector both to try and guide it, but also to take more profits from that sector.’</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>‘I think we’re</strong> seeing that now with the hi tech and internet sectors.’</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">  <br></p><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 22px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>As for Party reps </strong>in Internet firms as well as other private companies, Tony says:</span></p><ul style="font-size: 12px;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong> '</strong><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>In theory,</strong> that was probably the case before. But, in practice, the private companies were probably left pretty much alone.’ </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Now, the government</strong> is trying to 'to rein in, bring back in Party and State control over that very vibrant sector, and also to ensure it works more coherently for Party interests.’</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>‘I would suspect</strong> that over the next period, we’re going to see a tightening up in that area.’</span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Why this is important.</strong> Less tech- and business-savvy Party and State apparatchiks could dampen or even kill the vibrancy and innovation of individual companies and, perhaps, collectively, China's tech/Internet sectors. </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">If that happens initiatives like <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/made-china-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Made in China: 2025'</a> may be jeopardized. Also:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Mixed government/private companies</strong> will have more<strong> </strong>difficulties obtaining SIFUS approval for U.S. investments.</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Beijing would</strong> gain even greater control over the web and even greater access to people's personal data. </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>For analysts,</strong> figuring out what's happening in China's economy, tech/Internet sectors, and individual private companies would become a lot tougher. </span></li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">2. 'It's the politics, stupid!' </span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"></span></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth fullwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center autowidth fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/20160402_CND001_0.jpg?1515536749" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 14px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">source: The Economist</p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The big idea.</strong> When Xi Jinping came to office, western observers expected him to tackle China's flagging economy day one. But, Xi had different priorities. (Cue western hand wringing).</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'When Xi Jinping</strong> took over power,' Harvard's Tony Saich says, 'his view was "It's the politics, stupid"' (riffing on Bill Clinton's 1992 winning presidential campaign strategy, summarized in, 'It's the economy, stupid').</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The Party's</strong> relationship to society was in very dire straits. It was not just the corruption issues, the behavior of officials, but a lack of trust.'</span></li><li style="line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The Party had trust issues, too.</strong> 'The Party didn't trust the State to carry out its policies, and it certainly didn't trust society.' </span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'Xi felt there</strong> for anything to happen </span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">it was essential that the Party itself became stronger, more disciplined, and more unified, and that the Party had to get a much tougher grip over State and over society.'</span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>Society & the Party, it's complicated</strong>. Society was losing confidence in Party leadership, and the Party didn't (and doesn't) trust society. Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign went a long way toward restoring confidence in the Party. But, nothing could make the Party trust society. Tony explains:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>The Party</strong> 'fears that somehow society is getting away from Party rule and from the dominance of the Party.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The fear</strong> that if society is let loose, it’ll run off in its own merry way, which might be detrimental to, or possibly even in conflict with, Party interests.'</span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'That worried the Party</strong> because it could lead to the flourishing of a range of heterodox and unorthodox ideas within society that could undermine Party power.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'<strong>So we’ve seen</strong> a much tougher control over information flows, over what is acceptable to be talked about, and over what is acceptable to be written about. I don’t see that changing in the next five years.' </span></li></ul></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:18px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 18px;text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">3. The State & the Party, </span><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 39px;">it's even more complicated</span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color:transparent;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid #12325E; border-left: 0px solid #12325E; border-bottom: 0px solid #12325E; border-right: 0px solid #12325E; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth fullwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center autowidth fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/2d9826653-131202-china-bureaucracy-5a.nbcnews-ux-2880-1000.jpg?1515540195" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;">source: NBC News</span></p></div></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;">Getting the State bureaucracy in line.</span></span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>Why are Xi and the Party</strong> working so diligently to bend the State to the their will? </span></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>China is a one-party state</strong></span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">with two bureaucracies: the State and Party. </span></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>In theory,</strong> </span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">'[T]he State bureaucracy does the day-to-day job of public administration, and the Party bureaucracy sits next to and controls the way they do it,' Stein Ringen, Oxford professor </span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><em>emeritus</em> told me.</span></span></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>But, in practice,</strong> </span></span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">the State doesn't necessarily carry out the Party's policies. Harvard's Tony Saich explains:</span></span></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>'What I mean</strong></span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">about the Party not trusting the State is not just a question of the corruption.'</span></span></li><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>'It's really about</strong></span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"> State institutions pursuing their own particular interests that may conflict with the policies that the Party wants to push forward and pursue.'</span></span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>'Say, for example,</strong> on the environment,</span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"> the Party has good regulations and policies, but State institutions don’t carry them out.'</span></span><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 25px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>Why? 'Because</strong> </span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">there are vested interests within their localities that benefit from the perpetuation of pollution producing industries.'</span></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>The reality.</strong> </span></span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">China is '...such a rambling country with so many different institutions and so many different tiers of government that it’s very difficult to control.'</span></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>'The way China works</strong>, </span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">people are going to fall in line, seek to appease themselves with General Secretary Xi, and try and follow whatever his directives are.'</span></span></li><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">'But, like most</span></strong><span style="text-align: initial; line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"> of these things in China, the directives tend to be very vague. </span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">This leaves open</span><span style="text-align: initial; line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"> a lot of potential for local variants and local experimentation.'</span></span></li></ul><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>My translation:</strong></span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">Nothing new here. </span><span style="line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;">天高皇帝远 - 'Heaven is high and the Emperor is far away,' as the oft quoted - since the Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368) - proverb goes. </span></span></li></ul></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="line-height:18px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;text-align:left;"><span style="font-size:26px; line-height:39px;">What it all means</span></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth fullwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><img class="center autowidth fullwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/what-shall-we-do-with-our-boys-3-march-1882_copy_2.jpg?1515523313" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:'Comic Sans MS', cursive, sans-serif;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;">Chinese dynamism: </span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><span style="line-height: 21px; font-size: 18px;">left, after Deng;  right, after Xi?</span></span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;padding-top: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 1px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="line-height:22px;font-size:12px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong><span style="overflow: hidden; line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;" data-mce-type="bookmark" id="mce_1_start"><span style="overflow: hidden; line-height: 32px; font-size: 18px;" data-mce-type="bookmark" id="mce_1_start"></span></span>What it all means.</strong></span><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Xi may be able to bring Chinese society and the State to heel, but at what cost? Tony posits: </span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5;"><li style="font-size: 12px;line-height: 21px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'The Chinese leadership</strong> really needs to think about: Where does dynamism come from within its economy and within its society?'</span></li><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'It’s not necessarily</strong> within the State-owned sector.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">'<strong>So, this recentralization</strong> could curb the enthusiasm and entrepreneurialism within society.'</span></li><li style="font-size: 14px;line-height: 16px;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><strong>'And, this may be</strong> detrimental to meeting Xi's longer term goals of maintaining stable growth and a relatively peaceful societal framework.'</span></li></ul></div></div></div><div><div style="background-color:#F4F4F2;"><div style="Margin: 0 auto;min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;overflow-wrap: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color: #FFFFFF;" class="block-grid "><div style="border-collapse: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div class="col num12" style="min-width: 320px;max-width: 600px;display: table-cell;vertical-align: top;"><div style="background-color: transparent; width: 100% !important;"><div style="border-top: 0px solid transparent; border-left: 0px solid transparent; border-bottom: 0px solid transparent; border-right: 0px solid transparent; padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:30px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:120%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 20px; padding-left: 20px; padding-top: 30px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:14px;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#001F3E;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 31px;">Tony Saich</span></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/DSC_0016_-_Version_2_copy_2.jpg?1514988874" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 600px" width="600"></div><div style="color:#001F3E;line-height:180%;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-size:12px;line-height:22px;color:#001F3E;font-family:Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;line-height: 22px;font-size: 12px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://ash.harvard.edu/anthony-saich-directors-page" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tony Saich</a></span> - director of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School - is one of the preeminent authorities on China.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">Tony has long been a friend of CHINADebate (and of mine). Here he is at the CHINADebate's first CHINARoundtable in November 2012 explaining what China's new leader, Xi Jinping, could mean for China. He was spot on.</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 12px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 32px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 32px;">And, be sure to read Tony's essay <a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files/what_does_xi_jinping_dream_about.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'What Does General Secretary Xi Jinping Dreams About.'</a></span></p></div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 0px;padding-bottom: 0px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #F5F5F3;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 30px;padding-bottom: 5px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #B90000;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div align="center" class="img-container center fixedwidth" style="padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px;"><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div><img class="center fixedwidth" align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/cdn.png?1510958887" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: 0;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 240px" width="240"><div style="line-height:10px;font-size:1px"> </div></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="divider" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;min-width: 100%;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td class="divider_inner" style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;padding-right: 0px;padding-left: 0px;padding-top: 5px;padding-bottom: 20px;min-width: 100%;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><table class="divider_content" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="border-collapse: collapse;table-layout: fixed;border-spacing: 0;mso-table-lspace: 0pt;mso-table-rspace: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 30px solid #b90000;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><tbody><tr style="vertical-align: top"><td style="word-break: break-word;border-collapse: collapse !important;vertical-align: top;mso-line-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%"><span></span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="color:#555555;line-height:120%;font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif; padding-right: 10px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px;"><div style="font-family:Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:14px;color:#555555;text-align:left;"><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 26px; line-height: 31px;">And, don't miss</span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"> <br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="line-height: 26px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 22px;"><strong><span style="line-height: 26px; font-size: 22px;">'Next China: </span></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 26px;"><span style="line-height: 26px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 22px;"><strong><span style="line-height: 26px; font-size: 22px;">How the Middle Kingdom Will Reshape Your World'</span></strong></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 22px; line-height: 26px;">- <span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;">coming up soon on January 17 in New York City -</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 17px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"> </span><br></p><p style="margin: 0;font-size: 18px;line-height: 22px;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 21px;"><a style="color: #001F3E;text-decoration: underline;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/next-china-how-the-middle-kingdom-will-reshape-your-world-tickets-38424516764" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Click here to learn more</a>.</span></p></div></div><div align="center" class="img-container center autowidth " style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><a href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/next-china-how-the-middle-kingdom-will-reshape-your-world-tickets-38424516764" target="_blank" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><img class="center autowidth " align="center" border="0" src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/49861cdf-f9f4-4708-ae79-560aa1d16480.jpg?1515608266" alt="Image" title="Image" style="outline: none;text-decoration: none;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;clear: both;display: block !important;border: none;height: auto;float: none;width: 100%;max-width: 540px" width="540"></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>

CHINAMacroReporter Archive

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CHINAMacroReporter Archive

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