Will 'One Belt, One Road' Tank China's Economy?
6/26/2017
Time to start watching China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative.
Pieter Bottelier
Visiting Scholar, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Last month, 29 heads of states, mostly from small countries in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe, but also from Russia and Italy, met in Beijing for the Belt Road Forum (India was notably absent). In all, China and some 60 other countries signed 317 major investment deals for transportation and energy infrastructure projects.
The initiative holds the promise was juicing China's economy for decades, and, at the same time, reducing overcapacity, giving work to its giant construction companies, increasing its political influence across large parts of the world that developed countries often overlook...the benefits seem endless.
OBOR also holds the threat of saddling China with huge financial burdens (a trillion dollars over the next decade) and perhaps little return, all as its economy slows.
But, the biggest threat in the near term is that Xi Jinping will see OBOR as an alternative to completing the economic reforms promised - but not delivered - in 2013's Third Plenum.
So, while we watch for OBOR's impact in emerging and frontier markets, in individual industries, and on commodities, we have to also keep an eye on how China integrates OBOR into the overall structure of the economy, the good and the not so good.
I had a terrific opportunity to learn about OBOR and its potential impact on China's economy from one of the great experts, Pieter Bottelier. Before joining the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Pieter had a long career at the World Bank, which included serving as its China chief in Beijing. No westerner I know is better connected with China's top economists.
Why China Didn't Follow the Fed and Hike Rates
6/22/2017
Market chatter in China right now is about the People’s Bank of China’s decision not to follow the Fed in raising its interest rate (specifically the guidance rate for the 7-day repo).
Why the chatter? 'Some had expected a rate hike, especially given China’s need to deleverage or at least moderate credit growth,' Pete Sweeney, Asia Editor of Reuters Breaking views, told me in a recent interview.
Pete says one reason the People's Bank of China (PBOCP didn't raise rates is that, unlike in the U.S. and other developed economies, China tends to focus on liquidity more than on formally published rates.
And, here's something important I learned from Pete. Although nobody has any evidence, many speculate that the PBOC may be controlling liquidity and real rates through undisclosed cooperation with China’s giant state-owned banks. To find out how this might work, watch Pete’s interview below.
And, if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to CHINADebateTV to get exclusive ‘subscriber-only’ content. It’s free and takes less than a minute to sign up. Just click here to subscribe to CHINADebateTV.
Watch Pete’s interview
Can China & the U.S. Conclude a ‘Bilateral Investment Agreement’?
5/10/2017
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="templateWrapper" style="width: 100%;margin-bottom: 40px;" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" style=""><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="template" style="" width="100%" align="center"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" style=""><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive_section_1" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" style="background-color: rgb(2, 12, 27);"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td><!-- HERO IMAGE --><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1494457260305-qgf02zpq9ih-e4bdf8ded4f297a64e78549c74ccce46.jpg" width="300" height="222" border="0" alt="" class="img-max" data-href="" style="background-image: none;cursor: pointer;width: 98%;height: auto;margin-top: 10px;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 10px" class="spacer" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><!-- COPY --><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style=""><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td align="center" class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px;"><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#fdfff5"><span style="font-family:"lucida sans unicode","lucida grande",sans-serif"><strong>Can China & the U.S. Conclude a</strong></span></span></span></span><br></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:22px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="color:#fdfff5"><span style="font-family:"lucida sans unicode","lucida grande",sans-serif"><strong>‘Bilateral Investment Agreement’?</strong></span></span></span></span></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px;" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: #888888; font-size: 1px;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" rbl-attribute="text" style="background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td align="center" class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; background-image: none;"><div style="line-height:22px"><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#fdfff5">A conversation with <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/christian-murck" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(64, 181, 245);text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Chris Murck</a> about US-China trade relations in 2017.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#fdfff5">The United States’ retreat from the TPP has put the focus back on bilateral investment agreements, while at the same time raising the bar for what a successful deal might look like. With genuine concerns about China’s willingness to commit to standards of labor, environment, and investment, negotiations risk becoming tedious and perhaps ultimately unsuccessful.</span></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="10px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="button" class="mobile-button-container rbl-columns" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="padding: 15px 0px 10px;" class="padding-copy"><table rbl-attribute="button_table" cellspacing="0" border="0" align="center" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/bilateral-agreement?autoplay=true" target="_blank" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(2, 12, 27);text-decoration: none;background-color: rgb(64, 181, 245);border-width: 0 10px 15px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(64, 181, 245);border-radius: 1px;display: inline-block;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;" class="mobile-button">Watch Now →</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="spacer" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 4px" class="spacer" height="4px"><div style="font-size:4px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><!-- TWO COLUMN SECTION --><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive_section_2" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" style=" font-size: 16px!important; margin-top: 20px;"><tbody><tr><td class="section-padding"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Chris Murck: </span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the impacts of the US’s withdrawing from TPP is that it places more emphasis on the BIT negotiations, the ‘Bilateral Investment Treaty’ negotiations that have been going on for some time between the US and China. I think it raises the bar for what will be regarded as a successful BIT. </span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The BIT will need to include some of the things that were achieved in the TPP document with respect to labor standards, environmental standards, and competitive neutrality, vis–à–vis State-Owned Enterprises. If it does not, I think the business community will be distinctly unenthusiastic about it, which would be a shame because the BIT has the capability or the potential of encouraging investment between China and the US and putting it on a more reciprocal framework. </span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell: </strong>What do you see as the obstacles to concluding the BIT?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> It's just a difficult negotiation. The TPP standards that were originally negotiated were not regarded as something that China would be willing to sign on to. While TPP was conceived as an open framework, the concept was that China or other countries that would be interested might join at a date when they felt ready to do so. No one really expected China to come onboard in the current round of TPP. Therefore, it makes the conclusion of a successful BIT, both more important and more difficult.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> Let's go into some of the details here, both with the TPP and BIT standards. What are the problems that China has to overcome to be able to participate?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck</strong>: China would have to come to some agreement about how labor standards work and how environmental standards work. China has been, in the past, one of the areas where critics of the relationship have argued that foreign companies are engaged in a race to the bottom, looking for, of course, cheap labor. </span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, looking for a place where they were free to pollute the environment in ways that they're not in the United States or other developed markets. That would not be absolutely solved by TPP-type standards, but it would be significantly improved. The question is, does China have the kind of environmental enforcement, for example, that would enable them to sign on to a BIT, which has standards like the TPP?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell: </strong>How far away is China from being able to meet these standards?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> It depends on political will, which is in short supply. Particularly right now, the Chinese reform effort has somewhat stalled. The Third Plenum reforms, which were very promising, don't seem to be going anywhere, particularly with respect to State-Owned Enterprises. It will be difficult.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> Do you think State-Owned Enterprises will continue their resistance or will they see this kind of agreement being to their advantage?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> I think they will continue their resistance. </span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> Now, you mentioned earlier about foreign companies going into China in a race to the bottom, to be able to pollute where they couldn't pollute, and to have labor standards that are lower than what they have in their home markets. Can you tell us a little bit more about that?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> I think it is an incorrect criticism, for the most part, particularly with respect to American multi-nationals. American multi-nationals face a stakeholder environment that essentially prohibits them from that kind of behavior. There are certainly small private companies, both foreign and domestic, in China that are able to operate quite freely in ways that they could not in the US. </span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The same is also true of some State-Owned Enterprises. They don't necessarily abide by even Chinese standards. For example, you've got something like a steel plant that has installed up-to-date scrubbers on its smoke stacks but then turns them off, except when they expect an inspection. I think that is fixable. How quickly it's fixable is a question mark.</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell: </strong>Let's say we did have a successful BIT negotiation. What would it look like? What would the outcome look like?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> It would establish an investment environment in both countries that would protect investors and encourage investment because of that. The Chinese are very concerned about the U.S. CFIUS process.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> What is CFIUS?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck: </strong>CFIUS is the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which is an inter-agency process that reviews foreign acquisitions. Not greenfield investments but foreign acquisitions from the point of view of their potential impact on U.S. national security. It has been used to block a few, not very many, but a few Chinese acquisitions. </span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the coming months, my expectation is that the remit of CFIUS will be expanded. It will be a more prominent barrier to Chinese investment in the U.S., which is probably appropriate. That makes the existence of a BIT, from the Chinese point of view, all the more important because that's one way in which they can regularize that process.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> Rather than being what might be perceived from the Chinese point of view as arbitrary, would it become just an application process, and if the Chinese acquirer meets the standards, it would be permitted to make the investment?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> Yes. That's the hope.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> Any other aspects of BIT that we should know about?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> No. Those are the key things and we have to wait and see how it comes about. What I fear is that it will be extremely difficult to close these negotiations. They've been going on for four or five years now, which is typical for one of these documents. It takes a long time to negotiate them. I think it will be quite difficult to close it, both because of the expectations that have been aroused with the respect to TPP and because on the US side - we don't yet have an administration in place on the trade front.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong> Now, if the BIT were successful, what would the impact be on foreign investment or U.S. investment in China?</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Chris Murck:</strong> The impact would be to encourage it. But foreign investment is, at present in China, restricted and declining because of Chinese industrial policies. A BIT would not fully address that. One of the things that we would need to see an increase in foreign investment in China is the change in Chinese policy.</span></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
AmCham China & CHINADebate in Washington, D.C.
5/1/2017
<div><table id="templateWrapper" style="width: 100%;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="" valign="top"><table id="template" style="" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="center"><tbody><tr><td style="" valign="top"><table class="responsive_section_1" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" style="background-color: rgb(2, 12, 27);"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px 15px 0px 15px;" class="section-padding" align="center"><table class="responsive-table" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><!-- HERO IMAGE --><table rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center;" align="center"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1494283233263-7r1pwhxnqne-a4e3280aff021ede7a6c5ed467a58cf7.jpg?1494283280" alt="" class="img-max" data-href="" style="background-image: none;cursor: pointer;width: 98%;height: auto;margin-top: 10px;" width="500" border="0" height="250"></td></tr></tbody></table><!-- COPY --><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" style="" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px;" align="center"><div style="line-height:48px"><span style="color:#fdfff5"><span style="font-family:lucida sans unicode,lucida grande,sans-serif"><strong><span style="font-size:28px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Special Feature</span></span></strong></span></span></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:lucida sans unicode,lucida grande,sans-serif"><span style="color:#fdfff5">AmCham China & CHINADebate U.S.—China</span></span></strong></span></span></div><div style="line-height:28px"><span style="font-size:18px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong><span style="font-family:lucida sans unicode,lucida grande,sans-serif"><span style="color:#fdfff5">Trade/Business Series 2017</span></span></strong></span></span></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;" valign="top" align="center" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="divider" style="border-collapse:collapse;" class="rbl_divider" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center; padding: 10px;" valign="top"><div class="divider_block" style="height: 1px; background-color: #888888; font-size: 1px;" height="1"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="background-image: none; ;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;" valign="top" align="center" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px;" align="center"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#fdfff5">The Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, </span><a href="https://chinadebate.uscreen.io/authors/bill-zarit" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(64, 181, 245);text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#40b5f5">William Zarit</span></a><span style="color:#fdfff5">, along with several past Chairmen joined CHINADebate in Washington, D.C. for a panel discussion and individual interviews about U.S. business in China, U.S.-China relations, trade, and much more. </span><br><a href="https://chinadebate.uscreen.io/authors/sheryl-wudunn" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(64, 181, 245);text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color:#40b5f5">Sheryl WuDunn</span></a><span style="color:#fdfff5">, business executive, lecturer, best-selling author, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize moderated.</span></span></span></span></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 10px;" valign="top" align="center" height="10px"><div style="font-size:10px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><!-- TWO COLUMN SECTION --><table class="responsive_section_2" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"><tbody><tr><td class="section-padding" align="center"><table rbl-attribute="spacer" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height: 4px" class="spacer" height="4px"><div style="font-size:4px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" style="border-collapse:collapse;" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; overflow-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; border-width: 0px;" valign="top"><div><div style="line-height:24px"><div><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><strong><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="/* font-size:14px */" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">[Panel Discussion]</span></span></span></strong></span></span></span></div><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="/* font-size:14px */" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">Meet the AmCham China Chairmen (2 mins)</span></span></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="/* font-size:14px */" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'U.S. companies feel less welcome in China.' (9 mins)</span></span></span></span></span></li><li style="/* line-height: 24px; *//* margin-top: 0.5em; *//* margin-bottom: 0em; */"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="/* font-size:14px */" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'On trade, reciprocity should rule.' (12 mins)</span></span></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="/* font-size:14px */" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'China must have innovation for its economy to grow.' (9 mins)</span></span></span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="/* font-size:14px */" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper">'Open China’s Markets to U.S. Business.' (9 mins)</span></span></span></span></span></li></ol><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><strong><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">[Q&A]</span></strong></span></span></div><div style="line-height:24px"><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">‘Is Jack Ma right, will e-commerce create U.S. jobs?’ (6 mins) by Dennis Wilder: Professor of Practice in the Asian Studies Program at Georgetown University</span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 28px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;font-size: 16px;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">‘Has China decided Foreign Direct Investment isn't so important for them?’ (4 mins) by Pieter Bottelier, SAIS (School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University), Visiting Scholar</span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b;line-height: 28px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;line-height: 28px;font-size: 16px;">‘How do we solve the problems between the U.S. and China?’ (6 mins) by Chris Vick, Senior Advisor, The Cohen Group</span></span></span></li></ol></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><strong><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">[Interviews]</span></strong></span></span></div><div style="line-height:24px"><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">William Zarit | 'AmCham China helps each side understand the other.' (3 mins), Chairman of AmCham China</span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">James McGregor | 'China has to realize the gig is up.' (4 mins), Former Chairman of AmCham China (1996)</span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 28px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;font-size: 16px;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Lester Ross | 'China: explain why markets not open.' (5 mins ), Member of the American Chamber of Commerce in China’s Board of Governors and the Chair of AmCham China’s Policy Committee and Insurance Forum.</span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">John Watkins | ‘Biosciences, healthcare, consumer, all opportunities.’ (4 mins), Former Chairman of AmCham China (2009 – 2010)</span></span></span></li><li style="line-height: 24px;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="color:#020c1b"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Dennis Wilder | 'Re-look WTO agreements with China.' (4 mins), Professor of Practice in the Asian Studies Program at Georgetown University</span></span></span></li></ol></div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td colspan="1" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;" valign="top" align="center" height="20px"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="image" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;height: 300px;" class="rbl_image"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;padding: 0px;width: 100%;" valign="top"><iframe width="100%" height="100%" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/videoseries?list=PLelZXX06KYNkLsyE6OFgVX4P-dyFcXIsn" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="social_bar" style="border-collapse:collapse; ;" class="" width="100%" cellspacing="" cellpadding="10" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="templateWrapper" style="width: 100%;margin-top: 40px;" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" style=""><!-- ONE COLUMN SECTION --><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive_section_1" style="/* background-color: rgb(254, 255, 249); */" rbl-attribute="responsive_wrapper"><tbody><tr><td align="center" class="section-padding"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive-table" style="; background-image: none;"><tbody><tr><td class="" style="; background-image: none;"><!-- HERO IMAGE --><table rbl-attribute="text" rbl-type="headline" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse;background-image: none;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td style="padding: 0px;display: block;word-wrap: break-word;font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;background-image: none;background-color: #f5f5f5;" valign="top" class=""><div align="center" style="display:block; line-height:30px; text-align:center; word-wrap:break-word"><div style="margin-top: 10px;"><span>[Interview 2]</span><div><span><span style="font-size:26px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><strong>'China's got to realize the gig's up'</strong></span></span></span></div></div><div><span style="font-size: 16px;" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span><strong><span style="color:#00223a">James McGregor</span></strong></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:18px;margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span><span style="color:#00223a">Chairman, Greater China, APCO Worldwide</span></span></span></span></div></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="12px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px;padding-top: 20px;">Candidate Trump was tough on China. President Trump, well, it's not clear. After his meeting with President Xi, he seemed to soften his stance in hopes of getting China's help with the North Korea nuclear program.</div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">Recently, however, he tweeted: '<strong><em>While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!' </em></strong>Will the President now revert to form? Stay tuned.</div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">For Jim McGregor's part, he counsels rebalancing the U.S.-China relationship...</div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="40px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span>One of the problems in the U.S. is we're always worried about the relationship. <strong>Let's make China worry about the relationship for a while.</strong></span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span><strong>China's got to realize the gig's up</strong>, <strong>that they had a really good run, and that now it's going to be reciprocity.</strong> It's going to be fairness. If they want to do business with America and Americans, then they've got to open their markets the way we have.</span></span></span></span></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; ; background-image: none;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: "helvetica neue", helvetica, arial, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px">If this sounds Candidate Trumpian, I should say that long before Mr. Trump came down the escalator to announce his candidacy, <strong>many long-time China folks believed that China was gaming the system </strong>and taking advantage of not only of the U.S. but also the rest of the developed world. And, that tough changes are long overdue. Amen to Jim McGregor.</div><div><br></div><div>So, while I agree with Jim's assessment, I also agree with his warning...</div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td rbl-attribute="padding_left" valign="top" width="40px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px;display: block;word-wrap: break-word;font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;background-image: none;background-color: rgb(245, 247, 238);" valign="top"><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span><strong>If we don't go in there with smart policies, then there's going to be hell to pay</strong> because China is very smart and strategic, and they know what they want. </span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="color: #001544;"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span>It's a complicated intertwined world of global supply chains, and we have to be very strategic and smart in the way we handle this.</span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:22px"><br></div><div style="line-height:22px"><span style="color:#00223a"><span style="font-size:16px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span>So far, <strong>stirring things up is good, but, boy, we've thrown everything up in the air.</strong> If we don't bring it back down in a smart fashion, this could lead to a tit for tat trade war that neither one needs, wants, or could afford.</span></span></span></span></div></td><td rbl-attribute="padding_right" valign="top" width="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div> </div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="3" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr rbl-attribute="padding_top"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="15px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 15px;"><div style="font-size:15px;"> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:24px">What we've seen so far from the Trump administration does not give a lot of confidence. Not long ago, I said to a conference in Hong Kong,<strong></strong>'My get tough with China agenda is finally on the table, and it looks as if the administration charged with implementing it may be filled with bunglers.'<strong></strong>I am certainly hoping to be convinced otherwise.</div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><strong><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/james-mcgregor">Jim McGregor</a></strong> is not only a long-time China business leader, he is also one of the pre-eminent China experts. <strong>You can see</strong><strong>Jim's short </strong><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/programs/interview-mcgregor?autoplay=true"><strong>interview <em>below</em></strong></a>.</div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">As you will also see, he is being interviewed by <strong><a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv/authors/sheryl-wudunn">Sheryl WuDunn </a>- </strong>executive, best-selling author, and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. </div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">The interview took place after a CHINADebate event at the Cosmos Club in Washington, D.C., where Sheryl moderated a panel consisting of the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China and several of the past presidents, including Jim McGregor.</div></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; background-image: none; ;"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" style="padding: 0px; display: block; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-image: none;" valign="top"><div style="line-height:24px"><div style="line-height:24px">The presidents joined us while on their annual Washington 'Door Knock' visit for meetings with members of Congress and other government leaders. <strong>You can watch the AmCham China Presidents' panel discussion and the interviews <a href="http://www.chinadebate.tv//categories/amcham-china-trade-business-series-2017?action=show&controller=platform%2Fcategories&id=amcham-china-trade-business-series-2017">here on CHINADebateTV</a>.</strong> Terrific insights from leaders on the ground in China.</div><div style="line-height:24px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">Have a look and let me know what you think. Thanks!</div></div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px">All the best,</div><div style="line-height:14px"><br></div><div style="line-height:24px"><a href="https://www.chinadebatetv.online/about/#malcolm-riddell" target="_blank">Malcolm</a></div></td></tr><tr rbl-attribute="padding_bottom"><td align="center" colspan="1" valign="top" height="20px" style="border-collapse: collapse; height: 20px;"><div style="font-size:20px;"> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" class="responsive-table" rbl-attribute="responsive-table" style=" "><tbody><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td valign="middle" style="padding: 0;" class="mobile-wrapper"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="33%" align="left" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 20px 0 20px 0;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="100%" rbl-attribute="image" class="rbl_image"><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="middle" style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://d2zhgehghqjuwb.cloudfront.net/accounts/17618/original/1498600571341-9anp6iku27q-82905c6282b80b8681dc57fb43b424bb.gif" width="140" height="194.2127659574468" style="width: 140px;height: auto;cursor: pointer;background-image: none;" alt="Fluid image 2" border="0" class="" data-href=""></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="66%" align="right" class="responsive-table"><tbody><tr><td><table rbl-attribute="text" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="padding-copy" valign="middle"><div style="line-height:28px;padding: 20px 10px;"><div style="line-height: 28px;"><span style="color:#3e3c39"><span style="font-family:century gothic,apple gothic,sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 16px;" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><em>'China's got to realize that the gig's up, that they had a really good run and now it's going to be reciprocity'</em></span></span></span></span></div><div style="line-height:31px"><span style="font-size:14px" class="span_font"><span class="span_font_wrapper"><span style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span style="color:#3e3c39">- James McGregor -</span></span></span></span></div></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><!-- COPY --></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>