<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px;width:100%;margin:0 auto;background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: none; border-bottom:1px solid #008dc8;">View in the browser</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>August 27, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 0px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3.5% 5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UePtw?track_p_id=byYvUlBdVnRv5N6XmA_IEz5" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UePtw?track_p_id=62R2pO35N6XmA_E4ySkjAI1" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; line-height:46px; letter-spacing:0.1px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Harvard has done a really stand-up thing.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display: none;                          margin-top:2.5rem;                          margin-bottom: 0rem;                          font-size: 14px;                          line-height: 21px;                          font-weight: normal;                          font-family: 'Lato';                          color: #5d5d5f;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Greetings!</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;">&nbsp;</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong><em>It’s August,</em></strong><em> and from now until Labor Day, the China Macro Reporter will publish less often and have fewer posts.</em></p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong><em>But if some big things happen,</em></strong><em> we’ll bring you the analyses you need to understand those events.</em></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘A Stand-Up Thing’</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Harvard has done a really stand-up thing,’</strong> writes Jay Nordlinger of the National Review.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>Indeed</strong>.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Last week,</strong> the Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies invited Xu Zhangrun to be an Associate in Research for the 2020-2021 academic year. (He is in fact listed as such on the website.)</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"We thought it appropriate</strong> to make a gesture of support in light of recent developments, and therefore invited him to apply for an affiliation with us," said Fairbank Center director Michael Szonyi.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Dr. Xu</strong>, formerly an esteemed professor of constitutional law at Tsinghua University, has written damning essays criticizing Xi Jinping and his regime.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>He was arrested on charges</strong> of soliciting prostitution (a common ploy used against critics, some of whom I’ve know).</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>After being held for a week,</strong> he was released and then fired by Tsinghua.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>Soon after the Fairbank Center</strong> extended its offer. [Full disclosure: I am and have been for many years an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center.]</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>It is unlikely</strong> though that Dr. Xu will be permitted to leave China.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Jerry Cohen, </strong>the dean of China legal studies in the U.S., said:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"We should be inviting</strong> many of the great people in China who are oppressed or restricted in their activities to be associated with our research institutes."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"I see what it has done for Professor Xu.</strong><strong>It has given him greater resistance</strong> and greater strides in his struggle against oppression."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Why China’s Economy is Growing Faster than the Rest</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University,</strong> told me during our interview four reasons why the Chinese economy is doing well.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>One</strong> in particular stuck me.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>For all its efforts</strong> to transition to a service economy, manufacturing still rules in China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>Restarting the service economy,</strong> with its reliance on person-to-person contact, is a lot harder than restarting factories.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>So the factories</strong> came on line faster and, as the bigger part of the economy, drove the recovery.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>The U.S. Has Artificial Intelligence Competition All Wrong</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Ben Buchanan</strong> of Georgetown University points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘For all its geopolitical complexity,</strong> AI competition boils down to a simple technical triad: data, algorithms, and computing power.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>China</strong> may have a lead in data and is doing well algorithms, but it can’t compete on computing power.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>That’s where the West</strong> has the great advantage.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>The challenge to the West</strong> to stay ahead in computing innovation and to deny China access to the chips it needs – themes that regular readers have heard here often.</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>The U.S. &amp; China are in a Bad Marriage - Not a Cold War</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Readers know </strong>that I disagree with characterizing the U.S.-China relationship as a new ‘Cold War’ or ‘Cold War 2.0’ or whatever.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>Zachary Karbell</strong> seems to agree when he writes,</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The United States and China</strong> are not in a cold war.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘They are in a bad marriage,</strong> with no current option for divorce.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘That will remain the case</strong> for many years to come.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘What these analogies</strong> [to the Cold War] completely miss, however, is the nature of the Chinese-U.S. economic relationship, which is so much more connected and intertwined than the U.S.-Soviet one ever was.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘That alone renders the Cold War template</strong> almost completely irrelevant as a guide to our present and future.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Over time,</strong> the frostiness may well lead to less and less economic commingling, but that will be measured in years, not months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Unless either China or the United States</strong> finds a spare $5 trillion to $10 trillion to rebuild completely independent supply chains, that structure of trade and manufacturing and mutual engagement is with us for a long haul.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>To read the original article, click the title.</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong>China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>All the best,</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #c80000"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It’s August,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #c80000"><em style="font-style: italic"> and from now until Labor Day, the China Macro Reporter will publish less often and have fewer posts.</em></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><span style="color: #c80000"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But if some big things happen,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #c80000"><em style="font-style: italic"> we’ll bring you the analyses you need to understand those events.</em></span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today's issue,&nbsp;</strong></p><ol style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A terrific interview</strong> with Columbia's Shang-Jin Wei about why China's economy is growing faster than others - you will be surprised at Shang-Jin's reasoning.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An analysis</strong> of why the U.S. is still ahead of China in AI - think semiconductors.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An explanation</strong> of why the U.S. &amp; China aren't in a Cold War but a bad marriage - and why divorce is definitely not on the horizon.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An inspiring move</strong> by the Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies firmly supporting an esteemed academic who is under attack for his eloquent criticisms of Xi Jinping and his regime - 'Harvard has done a stand-up thing.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A look at how China </strong>has used its money supply to stimulate the economy and why that has peaked - &nbsp;excellent analysis + great charts.</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Why China’s Economy is Growing Faster than the Rest</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University</strong> told me during our interview four reasons why the Chinese economy is doing well.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">One</strong> in particular struck me.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For all its efforts</strong> to transition to a service economy, manufacturing still rules in China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Restarting the service economy,</strong> with its reliance on person-to-person contact, is a lot harder than restarting factories.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So the factories</strong> came online faster and, as the bigger part of the economy, drove the recovery.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. The U.S. Has Artificial Intelligence Competition All Wrong</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ben Buchanan</strong> of Georgetown University points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For all its geopolitical complexity,</strong> AI competition boils down to a simple technical triad: data, algorithms, and computing power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong> may have a lead in data and is doing well algorithms, but it can’t compete on computing power.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That’s where the West</strong> has a great advantage.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The challenge to the West</strong> to stay ahead in computing innovation and to deny China access to the chips it needs – themes that regular readers have heard here often.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. The U.S. &amp; China are in a Bad Marriage - Not a Cold War</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Readers know </strong>that I disagree with characterizing the U.S.-China relationship as a new ‘Cold War’ or ‘Cold War 2.0’ or whatever.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Zachary Karabell</strong> seems to agree when he writes,</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States and China</strong> are not in a cold war.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are in a bad marriage,</strong> with no current option for divorce.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That will remain the case</strong> for many years to come.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What these analogies</strong> [to the Cold War] completely miss, however, is the nature of the Chinese-U.S. economic relationship, which is so much more connected and intertwined than the U.S.-Soviet one ever was.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That alone renders the Cold War template</strong> almost completely irrelevant as a guide to our present and future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over time,</strong> the frostiness may well lead to less and less economic commingling, but that will be measured in years, not months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unless either China or the United States</strong> finds a spare $5 trillion to $10 trillion to rebuild completely independent supply chains, that structure of trade and manufacturing and mutual engagement is with us for a long haul.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. 'A Stand-Up Thing’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Harvard has done a really stand-up thing,’</strong> writes Jay Nordlinger of the National Review.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Indeed</strong>.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Last week,</strong> the Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies invited Xu Zhangrun to be an Associate in Research for the 2020-2021 academic year. (He is in fact listed as such on the website.)</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"We thought it appropriate</strong> to make a gesture of support in light of recent developments, and therefore invited him to apply for an affiliation with us," said Fairbank Center director Michael Szonyi.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dr. Xu</strong>, formerly an esteemed professor of constitutional law at Tsinghua University, has written damning essays criticizing Xi Jinping and his regime.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He was arrested on charges</strong> of soliciting prostitution (a common ploy used against critics, some of whom I’ve know).</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">After being held for a week,</strong> he was released and then fired by Tsinghua.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Soon after the Fairbank Center</strong> extended its offer. [Full disclosure: I am and have been for many years an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center.]</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It is unlikely</strong> though that Dr. Xu will be permitted to leave China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jerry Cohen, </strong>the dean of China legal studies in the U.S., said:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"We should be inviting</strong> many of the great people in China who are oppressed or restricted in their activities to be associated with our research institutes."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I see what it has done for Professor Xu.</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">It has given him greater resistance</strong> and greater strides in his struggle against oppression."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. China: An effective but subsiding stimulus</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wenzhe Zhao of CreditSuisse writes:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Due to the recent policy stimulus,</strong> M2 growth in China has accelerated.’’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">Money aggregate,</strong> M2, responds to the monetary stimulus and transmits it to new spending.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's one-of-a-kind credit </strong>has helped stabilize the economy in the pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Infrastructure and real estate sectors</strong> have benefited disproportionately from the monetary stimulus, but private manufacturing, services, and parts of the household sector have lagged due to fragmented credit allocation mechanisms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The marginal impact</strong> of the current set of counter-cyclical stimulus in China has peaked, though is still positive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Policy priorities</strong> will likely shift again towards strategic reform goals as long as the virus remains under control domestically.’</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></span></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></span></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:1rem; 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margin:0 auto; padding:2px 0; width: 170px; height:auto; border: 5px solid #E7E8E0; text-align:center; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; font-size:16px; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing:-0.2px; line-height:1.1;background-color:#f6f6f6; border-radius:2px;"><a style="color:#001544; text-decoration-line:none;border-bottom:none;" href="http://eepurl.com/gFrDCb" target="_blank">Browse the Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.5rem; font-family: 'Lato'; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. The Interview:  Shang Jin-Wei</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 0px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3.5% 5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9H7elM?track_p_id=7ZfT2GyY6jJMKc_GFoMP4dz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9H7elM?track_p_id=8f43RNnlY6jJMKc_EK2Fm3q" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; line-height:46px; letter-spacing:0.1px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China's Economy is Growing Faster than Others</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display: none;                          margin-top:2.5rem;                          margin-bottom: 0rem;                          font-size: 14px;                          line-height: 21px;                          font-weight: normal;                          font-family: 'Lato';                          color: #5d5d5f;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>CHINADebate</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell</strong> | CHINADebate</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Malcolm Riddell:</strong><strong>‘Why is China’s economy</strong> doing so much better than other economies?’</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Shang-Jin Wei: ‘</strong><strong>The IMF</strong> is projecting negative growth rates for every major economy. Every major economy except China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The United States</strong> is projected to have a growth rate on the order of minus 8%.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Spain, France, Italy, Mexico,</strong> and others are projected to have growth rates of minus 10% or close to minus 10%.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘China, according to IMF,</strong> is likely to grow at 1% - and major investment banks are higher at 2-3%.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Some argue that China</strong> has positive growth because it started at a higher growth rate of 6-7%, than the G20 countries growing at say 2% or so.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘So if we have consistent </strong><strong>downward</strong> reduction of growth rate by 4% across all major economies, G20 economies go into negative growth but China is positive.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The problem</strong> with this explanation is a country like India.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘India last year</strong> had a growth rate very close to China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Yet the IMF</strong> and the investment banks are projecting big negative growth on the order of minus 4.5%.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Others look</strong> to China’s stimulus efforts for the answer.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘V</strong><strong>irtually every major economy</strong> rolled out more supportive monetary policies, more supportive fiscal policies. China’s were in line with these.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘So comparatively</strong> it’s more or less a wash.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Malcolm:</strong><strong>‘Then</strong> what accounts for China’s positive growth?’</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Shang-Jin:</strong><strong>‘Four factors</strong>, I think.’</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘First is </strong><strong>China's</strong> relatively aggressive and decisive measures on the COVID public health crisis itself that managed to get the pandemic under control much faster than the other large economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘‘The relative success</strong> in controlling the pandemic translates into how much people are willing to go back to their normal lives, to their jobs, and the like.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The second thing is technology,</strong> especially digital technology in two aspects.’</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘First, online shopping,</strong> online ordering, and digital payments&nbsp; offset the reduction in brick &amp; mortar consumption.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘This is much like</strong> what happened in many other economies, but China seems to be doing a bit more of that, and China’s delivery system is very competitive.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Second, perhaps more importantly,</strong> is the use of this health app on the smartphones, the so-called ‘green code.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘This is an initiative</strong> of some technology companies like Alibaba, together with local governments.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Different cities and regions</strong> rolled out those health apps at different times, but they rolled out fairly quickly within in a two- or three-week period.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Now virtually every region</strong> has their own version of green health codes.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The green health code</strong> does two things.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘One is it allows contact tracing</strong> very quickly, mapping who is in close contact with whom in the last say two weeks or so.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘So when a person</strong> is discovered to be infected or self-report to be infected, my code will go from green to red.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘But the app</strong> also tracks others I have been in contact with.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘When my code turns red,</strong> the codes of the people who have had close contact with me in the last few weeks automatically changes to red too.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘When this happens,</strong> they cannot go out, or leave their residential compound, or go to shopping malls, and so on for two weeks.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘This of course limits</strong> the risk of infection spread.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘But perhaps more importantly,</strong> when you go to a mall, you have greater confidence that the people they will run into are not unlikely to be infected.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘So you are more willing to consume.</strong> You are more willing to go to restaurants. And you are more willing to go back to the office and the factory.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘And the third factor</strong> is economic structure.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Although China's more service-oriented</strong> than before, manufacturing still dominates.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘China’s relying</strong> relatively more on the manufacturing share, than say the U.S., actually helps in its economic recovery.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The service sector</strong> depends on person-to-person contact; factories don’t.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘So China</strong> has been able to get its larger manufacturing sector open faster than economies where services dominate and start generating GDP sooner and faster.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Finally,</strong> China went into the pandemic recession earlier than other countries, and it ended the pandemic earlier than other economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘As China recovered,</strong> those other countries’ were now locked down; but people needed to eat, needed to buy stuff, and so on.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Because of this,</strong> China actually received better than usual orders for its exports.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Chinese exports</strong> have boomed starting from late March to now.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>And this helped to compensate</strong> for the loss of the GDP growth in other sectors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/nLPZkVR3V0K9tN2kTgCD2Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shang-Jin Wei&nbsp;</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;">Professor, Columbia University &amp; former Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank</h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><br></h3><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why is China’s economy</strong> doing so much better than other economies?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shang-Jin Wei</strong></span><span style="color: #000000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The IMF</strong> is projecting negative growth rates for every major economy. Every major economy except China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> is projected to have a growth rate on the order of minus 8%.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Spain, France, Italy, Mexico,</strong> and others are projected to have growth rates of minus 10% or close to minus 10%.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China, according to IMF,</strong> is likely to grow at 1% - and major investment banks are higher at 2-3%.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some argue that China</strong> has positive growth because it started at a higher growth rate of 6-7%, than the G20 countries growing at say 2% or so.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So if we have consistent downward</strong> reduction of growth rate by 4% across all major economies, G20 economies go into negative growth but China is positive.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem</strong> with this explanation is a country like India.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India last year</strong> had a growth rate very close to China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the IMF</strong> and the investment banks are projecting big negative growth on the order of minus 4.5%.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Others look</strong> to China’s stimulus efforts for the answer.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Virtually every major economy</strong> rolled out more supportive monetary policies, more supportive fiscal policies. China’s were in line with these.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So comparatively</strong> it’s more or less a wash.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></span><span style="color: #000000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong></span><span style="color: #000000"></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then</strong> what accounts for China’s positive growth?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shang-Jin</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Four factors</strong>, I think.’</p><h1 style="display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.1px;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;">1.</h1><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First is China's</strong> relatively aggressive and decisive measures on the COVID public health crisis itself that managed to get the pandemic under control much faster than the other large economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The relative success</strong> in controlling the pandemic translates into how much people are willing to go back to their normal lives, to their jobs, and the like.’</li></ul><h1 style="display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.1px;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2.</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second thing is technology,</strong> especially digital technology in two aspects.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, online shopping,</strong> online ordering, and digital payments&nbsp; offset the reduction in brick &amp; mortar consumption.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is much like</strong> what happened in many other economies, but China seems to be doing a bit more of that, and China’s delivery system is very competitive.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, perhaps more importantly,</strong> is the use of this health app on the smartphones, the so-called ‘green code.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is an initiative</strong> of some technology companies like Alibaba, together with local governments.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Different cities and regions</strong> rolled out those health apps at different times, but they rolled out fairly quickly within in a two- or three-week period.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now virtually every region</strong> has their own version of green health codes.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The green health code</strong> does two things.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One is it allows contact tracing</strong> very quickly, mapping who is in close contact with whom in the last say two weeks or so.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So when a person</strong> is discovered to be infected or self-report to be infected, my code will go from green to red.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the app</strong> also tracks others I have been in contact with.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When my code turns red,</strong> the codes of the people who have had close contact with me in the last few weeks automatically changes to red too.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When this happens,</strong> they cannot go out, or leave their residential compound, or go to shopping malls, and so on for two weeks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This of course limits</strong> the risk of infection spread.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But perhaps more importantly,</strong> when you go to a mall, you have greater confidence that the people they will run into are not unlikely to be infected.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So you are more willing to consume.</strong> You are more willing to go to restaurants. And you are more willing to go back to the office and the factory.’</li></ul><h1 style="display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.1px;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3.</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the third factor</strong> is economic structure.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although China's more service-oriented</strong> than before, manufacturing still dominates.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s relying</strong> relatively more on the manufacturing share, than say the U.S., actually helps in its economic recovery.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The service sector</strong> depends on person-to-person contact; factories don’t.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So China</strong> has been able to get its larger manufacturing sector open faster than economies where services dominate and start generating GDP sooner and faster.’</li></ul><h1 style="display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.1px;font-family: 'Lato';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4.</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> China went into the pandemic recession earlier than other countries, and it ended the pandemic earlier than other economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As China recovered,</strong> those other countries’ were now locked down; but people needed to eat, needed to buy stuff, and so on.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Because of this,</strong> China actually received better than usual orders for its exports.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese exports</strong> have boomed starting from late March to now.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And this helped to compensate</strong> for the loss of the GDP growth in other sectors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:1rem; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.5rem; font-family: 'Lato'; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. AI Competition</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 0px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3.5% 5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8SWepM?track_p_id=73dyf3Fw6Xuglq_Hh5yqwZA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8SWepM?track_p_id=3q%40V6Xuglq_EbJpoKJkckE2" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; line-height:46px; letter-spacing:0.1px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The U.S. Has Artificial Intelligence Competition All Wrong</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display: none;                          margin-top:2.5rem;                          margin-bottom: 0rem;                          font-size: 14px;                          line-height: 21px;                          font-weight: normal;                          font-family: 'Lato';                          color: #5d5d5f;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Foreign Affairs</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Ben Buchanan</strong> | Director of the CyberAI Project at Georgetown University</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Data and algorithms are critical, but they mean little without the compute to back them up. By taking advantage of their natural head start in this realm, the United States and its allies can preserve their ability to counter Chinese capabilities in AI.</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘For all its geopolitical complexity,</strong> AI competition boils down to a simple technical triad:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘data, algorithms, and computing power.’ </strong></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The first two elements</strong> of the triad receive an enormous amount of policy attention.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘As the sole input to modern AI,</strong> data is often compared to oil—a trope repeated everywhere from technology marketing materials to presidential primaries.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Equally central</strong> to the policy discussion are algorithms, which enable AI systems to learn and interpret data. While it is important not to overstate its capability in these realms, China does well in both:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘its expansive government bureaucracy&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-02-06/digital-dictators" rel="nofollow">hoovers&nbsp;</a>up massive amounts of data, and its tech firms have made notable&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/behind-rise-chinas-facial-recognition-giants/" rel="nofollow">strides</a>&nbsp;in advanced AI algorithms.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘But the third element of the triad</strong> is often neglected in policy discussions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Computing power</strong>—or compute, in industry parlance—is treated as a boring commodity, unworthy of serious attention.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘But in AI,</strong> compute is quietly essential.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘As algorithms learn from data</strong> and encode insights into neural networks, they&nbsp;<a href="https://www.livescience.com/62827-fastest-supercomputer.html" rel="nofollow">perform&nbsp;</a>trillions or quadrillions of individual calculations.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Without processors</strong> capable of doing this math at high speed, progress in AI grinds to a halt.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Cutting-edge compute</strong> is thus more than just a technical marvel; it is a powerful point of leverage between nations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Recognizing the true power of compute</strong> would mean reassessing the state of global AI competition.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Unlike the other two elements of the triad,</strong> compute has undergone a silent revolution led by the United States and its allies—'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘one that gives these nations</strong> a structural advantage over China and other countries that are rich in data but lag in advanced electronics manufacturing.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘U.S. policymakers</strong> can build on this foundation as they seek to maintain their technological edge.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The increasing cost and complexity of compute</strong> give the United States and its allies an advantage over China, which still lags behind its competitors in this element of the AI triad.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘American companies</strong> dominate the market for the software needed to design computer chips, and the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan host the leading chip-fabrication facilities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Three countries</strong>—Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States—lead in chip-manufacturing equipment,&nbsp;<a href="https://legacy.trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Semiconductors_Executive_Summary.pdf" rel="nofollow">controlling&nbsp;</a>more than 90 percent of global market share.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘For decades,</strong> China has tried to close these gaps, sometimes with unrealistic expectations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘When Chinese planners</strong> decided to build a domestic computer chip industry in 1977, they thought the country could be internationally competitive within several years.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Beijing </strong>made significant investments in the new sector. But technical barriers, a lack of experienced engineers, and poor central planning meant that Chinese chips still trailed behind their competitors&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-leaders-and-founders/article/3024315/china-needs-five-10-years-catch-semiconductors" rel="nofollow">several</a>&nbsp;decades later.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘By the 1990s,</strong> the Chinese government’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/12/14/138260/china-has-never-had-a-real-chip-industry-making-ai-chips-could-change-that/" rel="nofollow">enthusiasm&nbsp;</a>had largely receded.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘In 2014,</strong> however, a dozen leading engineers urged the Chinese government to try again.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Chinese officials&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/enterprises/article/2145422/how-chinas-big-fund-helping-country-catch-global-semiconductor-race" rel="nofollow">created&nbsp;</a>the National Integrated Circuit Fund—more commonly known as “the big fund”—to invest in promising chip companies.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Its long-term plan</strong> was to meet&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/id_19_061_china_integrated_circuits_technology_roadmap_final_080519_kim_verwey-508_compliant.pdf" rel="nofollow">80 percent</a>&nbsp;of China’s demand for chips by 2030. But despite some progress, China remains behind.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The country still&nbsp;<a href="https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/22025545/china-invites-foreign-cash-to-build-a-worldclass-chip-industry" rel="nofollow">imports&nbsp;</a></strong>84 percent of its computer chips from abroad, and even among those produced domestically, half are made by non-Chinese companies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Even in Chinese fabrication facilities,</strong> Western chip design, software, and equipment still predominate.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The current advantage</strong> enjoyed by the United States and its allies—stemming in part from the growing importance of compute—presents an opportunity for policymakers interested in limiting China’s AI capabilities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘By choking off the chip supply</strong> with export controls or limiting the transfer of chip-manufacturing equipment, the United States and its allies could slow China’s AI development and ensure its reliance on existing producers.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>&nbsp;‘Export controls</strong> on chips or chip-manufacturing equipment might well have diminishing marginal returns.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘A lack of competition</strong> from Western technology could simply help China build its industry in the long run.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Limiting access to chip-manufacturing</strong> equipment may therefore be the most promising approach, as China is less likely to be able to develop that equipment on its own.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘But the issue</strong> is time sensitive and complex; policymakers have a window in which to act, and it is likely closing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Their priority</strong> must be to determine how best to preserve the United States’ long-term advantage in AI.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ben Buchanan</strong> | Director of the CyberAI Project at Georgetown University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Data and algorithms are critical, but they mean little without the compute to back them up.'</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For all its geopolitical complexity,</strong> AI competition boils down to a simple technical triad:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘data, algorithms, and computing power.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first two elements</strong> of the triad receive an enormous amount of policy attention.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the sole input to modern AI,</strong> data is often compared to oil—a trope repeated everywhere from technology marketing materials to presidential primaries.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Equally central</strong> to the policy discussion are algorithms, which enable AI systems to learn and interpret data. While it is important not to overstate its capability in these realms, China does well in both:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘its expansive government bureaucracy&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-02-06/digital-dictators" rel="nofollow">hoovers&nbsp;</a>up massive amounts of data, and its tech firms have made notable&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/behind-rise-chinas-facial-recognition-giants/" rel="nofollow">strides</a>&nbsp;in advanced AI algorithms.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the third element of the triad</strong> is often neglected in policy discussions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Computing power</strong>—or compute, in industry parlance—is treated as a boring commodity, unworthy of serious attention.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in AI,</strong> compute is quietly essential.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As algorithms learn from data</strong> and encode insights into neural networks, they&nbsp;<a href="https://www.livescience.com/62827-fastest-supercomputer.html" rel="nofollow">perform&nbsp;</a>trillions or quadrillions of individual calculations.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without processors</strong> capable of doing this math at high speed, progress in AI grinds to a halt.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cutting-edge compute</strong> is thus more than just a technical marvel; it is a powerful point of leverage between nations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recognizing the true power of compute</strong> would mean reassessing the state of global AI competition.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike the other two elements of the triad,</strong> compute has undergone a silent revolution led by the United States and its allies—'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘one that gives these nations</strong> a structural advantage over China and other countries that are rich in data but lag in advanced electronics manufacturing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. policymakers</strong> can build on this foundation as they seek to maintain their technological edge.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The increasing cost and complexity of compute</strong> give the United States and its allies an advantage over China, which still lags behind its competitors in this element of the AI triad.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American companies</strong> dominate the market for the software needed to design computer chips, and the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan host the leading chip-fabrication facilities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Three countries</strong>—Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States—lead in chip-manufacturing equipment,&nbsp;<a href="https://legacy.trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Semiconductors_Executive_Summary.pdf" rel="nofollow">controlling&nbsp;</a>more than 90 percent of global market share.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For decades,</strong> China has tried to close these gaps, sometimes with unrealistic expectations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Chinese planners</strong> decided to build a domestic computer chip industry in 1977, they thought the country could be internationally competitive within several years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing </strong>made significant investments in the new sector. But technical barriers, a lack of experienced engineers, and poor central planning meant that Chinese chips still trailed behind their competitors&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-leaders-and-founders/article/3024315/china-needs-five-10-years-catch-semiconductors" rel="nofollow">several</a>&nbsp;decades later.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the 1990s,</strong> the Chinese government’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/12/14/138260/china-has-never-had-a-real-chip-industry-making-ai-chips-could-change-that/" rel="nofollow">enthusiasm&nbsp;</a>had largely receded.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2014,</strong> however, a dozen leading engineers urged the Chinese government to try again.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese officials&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/enterprises/article/2145422/how-chinas-big-fund-helping-country-catch-global-semiconductor-race" rel="nofollow">created&nbsp;</a>the National Integrated Circuit Fund—more commonly known as “the big fund”—to invest in promising chip companies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its long-term plan</strong> was to meet&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/id_19_061_china_integrated_circuits_technology_roadmap_final_080519_kim_verwey-508_compliant.pdf" rel="nofollow">80 percent</a>&nbsp;of China’s demand for chips by 2030. But despite some progress, China remains behind.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country still&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/22025545/china-invites-foreign-cash-to-build-a-worldclass-chip-industry" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">imports&nbsp;</strong></a>84 percent of its computer chips from abroad, and even among those produced domestically, half are made by non-Chinese companies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even in Chinese fabrication facilities,</strong> Western chip design, software, and equipment still predominate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The current advantage</strong> enjoyed by the United States and its allies—stemming in part from the growing importance of compute—presents an opportunity for policymakers interested in limiting China’s AI capabilities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By choking off the chip supply</strong> with export controls or limiting the transfer of chip-manufacturing equipment, the United States and its allies could slow China’s AI development and ensure its reliance on existing producers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Export controls</strong> on chips or chip-manufacturing equipment might well have diminishing marginal returns.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A lack of competition</strong> from Western technology could simply help China build its industry in the long run.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Limiting access to chip-manufacturing</strong> equipment may therefore be the most promising approach, as China is less likely to be able to develop that equipment on its own.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the issue</strong> is time-sensitive and complex; policymakers have a window in which to act, and it is likely closing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their priority</strong> must be to determine how best to preserve the United States’ long-term advantage in AI.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:1rem; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.5rem; font-family: 'Lato'; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Defining the U.S.-China Relationship</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 0px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3.5% 5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y7eZE?track_p_id=9YaFsuFEtV5hyKsw_DoolvU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/70Mx3kjMW7MujEpRqYWUwki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y7eZE?track_p_id=7ekyvLiU5hyKsw_l3PjciiQ" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; line-height:46px; letter-spacing:0.1px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The U.S. &amp; China are in a Bad Marriage - Not a Cold War</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display: none;                          margin-top:2.5rem;                          margin-bottom: 0rem;                          font-size: 14px;                          line-height: 21px;                          font-weight: normal;                          font-family: 'Lato';                          color: #5d5d5f;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Foreign Policy</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Zachary Karabell </strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The United States and China are not in a cold war. They are in a bad marriage, with no current option for divorce.’ </strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Talk&nbsp;of a new Cold War</strong>—and the idea that Chinese-U.S. relations are at their worst since the two countries normalized diplomatic ties in 1979—is its own form of frenzy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘And that way of thinking</strong> is forcing a 20th-century template of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union onto a U.S.-Chinese relationship that could not be more different.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The United States and China</strong> are not in a cold war.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘They are in a bad marriage,</strong> with no current option for divorce.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘That will remain the case</strong> for many years to come.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Of late, the bickering</strong> between the United States and China has certainly gotten much worse. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-10/xi-jinping-not-stalin?utm_medium=social&amp;fbclid=IwAR2CnpRzGnYzbe_6SF-qhfcNh-00ie51JZEKuuIVDyLBd6_XbRDAJabBuC4" rel="nofollow">assailed&nbsp;</a>Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘And the two countries </strong>have imposed an escalating series of tit-for-tat measures against each other, ranging from Chinese sanctions on U.S. senators to U.S. orders to close the Chinese consulate in Houston.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘That, in turn,</strong> has led policy experts and China watchers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/world/asia/cold-war-china-us.html" rel="nofollow">to speak</a>&nbsp;of “a drift toward Cold War,” with potential for all the familiar hallmarks of last century’s Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘starkly opposed</strong> ideologies;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘proxy confrontations</strong> that then become proxy wars in other countries;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘mutually exclusive spheres of influence</strong> in which each attempts to freeze out the other; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘a global</strong> diplomatic, propaganda, and economic offensive to line up allies and cut off the economic oxygen of the other side.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘What these analogies</strong> completely miss, however, is the nature of the Chinese-U.S. economic relationship, which is so much more connected and intertwined than the U.S.-Soviet one ever was.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘That alone renders the Cold War template</strong> almost completely irrelevant as a guide to our present and future.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Over time,</strong> the frostiness may well lead to less and less economic commingling, but that will be measured in years, not months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Unless either China or the United States</strong> finds a spare $5 trillion to $10 trillion to rebuild completely independent supply chains, that structure of trade and manufacturing and mutual engagement is with us for a long haul.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Or perhaps the United States</strong> just needs a great enemy, as it used to have in the form of the Soviet Union.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘And it’s true that China</strong> is better cast than, say, al Qaeda or that amorphous nonstate thing called “Islamic fundamentalism” or “terrorism.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The U.S. national security</strong> establishment was set up in the late 1940s in order to contain and confront a unitary state power with a potent military.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘In that sense,</strong> China is a worthy successor to the Soviet Union.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘And what is faintly similar</strong> is that the two are locked in a great-power contest, in which China has moved to dominate the South China Sea as the United States did and still does in the Caribbean.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The two countries</strong> do have ideological differences as well, but those are much less acute for the simple reason that China does not seem to seek to export any particular ideology other than state sovereignty.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘In short,</strong> there is nothing comparable in today’s relationship between the United States and China to the 20th-century rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/OgFXqCZ3M6-IwIowwwQRhDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Policy</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Zachary Karabell</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States and China are not in a cold war. They are in a bad marriage, with no current option for divorce.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Talk&nbsp;of a new Cold War</strong>—and the idea that Chinese-U.S. relations are at their worst since the two countries normalized diplomatic ties in 1979—is its own form of frenzy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that way of thinking</strong> is forcing a 20th-century template of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union onto a U.S.-Chinese relationship that could not be more different.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States and China</strong> are not in a cold war.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are in a bad marriage,</strong> with no current option for divorce.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That will remain the case</strong> for many years to come.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of late, the bickering</strong> between the United States and China has certainly gotten much worse. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-10/xi-jinping-not-stalin?utm_medium=social&amp;fbclid=IwAR2CnpRzGnYzbe_6SF-qhfcNh-00ie51JZEKuuIVDyLBd6_XbRDAJabBuC4" rel="nofollow">assailed&nbsp;</a>Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the two countries </strong>have imposed an escalating series of tit-for-tat measures against each other, ranging from Chinese sanctions on U.S. senators to U.S. orders to close the Chinese consulate in Houston.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That, in turn,</strong> has led policy experts and China watchers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/world/asia/cold-war-china-us.html" rel="nofollow">to speak</a>&nbsp;of “a drift toward Cold War,” with potential for all the familiar hallmarks of last century’s Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘starkly opposed</strong> ideologies;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘proxy confrontations</strong> that then become proxy wars in other countries;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘mutually exclusive spheres of influence</strong> in which each attempts to freeze out the other; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a global</strong> diplomatic, propaganda, and economic offensive to line up allies and cut off the economic oxygen of the other side.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What these analogies</strong> completely miss, however, is the nature of the Chinese-U.S. economic relationship, which is so much more connected and intertwined than the U.S.-Soviet one ever was.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That alone renders the Cold War template</strong> almost completely irrelevant as a guide to our present and future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over time,</strong> the frostiness may well lead to less and less economic commingling, but that will be measured in years, not months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unless either China or the United States</strong> finds a spare $5 trillion to $10 trillion to rebuild completely independent supply chains, that structure of trade and manufacturing and mutual engagement is with us for a long haul.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Or perhaps the United States</strong> just needs a great enemy, as it used to have in the form of the Soviet Union.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it’s true that China</strong> is better cast than, say, al Qaeda or that amorphous nonstate thing called “Islamic fundamentalism” or “terrorism.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. national security</strong> establishment was set up in the late 1940s in order to contain and confront a unitary state power with a potent military.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In that sense,</strong> China is a worthy successor to the Soviet Union.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And what is faintly similar</strong> is that the two are locked in a great-power contest, in which China has moved to dominate the South China Sea as the United States did and still does in the Caribbean.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The two countries</strong> do have ideological differences as well, but those are much less acute for the simple reason that China does not seem to seek to export any particular ideology other than state sovereignty.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In short,</strong> there is nothing comparable in today’s relationship between the United States and China to the 20th-century rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:1rem; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.5rem; font-family: 'Lato'; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. China's Economic Stimulus</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 0px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3.5% 5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/69Dha4?track_p_id=6nogmc16Z7RwU_nk5UqRIat" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pd2AGi8v7b5rElII6CSyYki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/69Dha4?track_p_id=bAMW355C%40bFM6Z7RwU_BCV4" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; line-height:46px; letter-spacing:0.1px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China: An effective but subsiding stimulus</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display: none;                          margin-top:2.5rem;                          margin-bottom: 0rem;                          font-size: 14px;                          line-height: 21px;                          font-weight: normal;                          font-family: 'Lato';                          color: #5d5d5f;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>CreditSuisse</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Wenzhe Zhao</strong> | Credit Suisse.</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘If the virus remains under control within China, which appears more and more likely, the need for a relentless pursuit of credit expansion will diminish further.’ </strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Due to the recent policy stimulus,</strong> M2 growth in China has accelerated.’’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;">‘<strong>Money aggregate,</strong> M2, responds to the monetary stimulus and transmits it to new spending.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘China's one-of-a-kind credit </strong>has helped stabilize the economy in the pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Infrastructure and real estate sectors</strong> have benefited disproportionately from the monetary stimulus, but private manufacturing, services, and parts of the household sector have lagged due to fragmented credit allocation mechanisms.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The marginal impact</strong> of the current set of counter-cyclical stimulus in China has peaked, though is still positive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Policy priorities</strong> will likely shift again towards strategic reform goals as long as the virus remains under control domestically.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The recent acceleration</strong> in M2 growth is not expected to be inflationary (link).</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Despite the modest size of the stimulus,</strong> its impact on M2 and economic growth has been salient.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘The pace of M2 growth</strong> between February and May averaged RMB 2.4tn per month, doubling that over the past two years (Figure 1, above).’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Both institutional and household deposits</strong> have notably grown, a more balanced outcome than past episodes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘China's industrial production</strong> and electricity consumption have fully recovered to previous highs.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Pushing resources</strong> with a heavy visible hand towards sectors that can yield an immediate economic upshot often creates economic imbalances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘Counter-cyclical credit</strong> easing tends to strengthen the goods sector much more than services and is more likely to benefit government-sponsored activities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘In the current episode,</strong> commercial banks also need to shoulder deteriorating asset quality and brace for lower profitability.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘The Chinese policymakers</strong> have long-acknowledged the side-effects with easy credit and have refrained themselves from stimulating the economy too bluntly this time around.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘They have chosen</strong> not to announce the short-term GDP growth target for this year, a sign of their decreased willingness to sacrifice sustainability for short-term gains.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘If the virus</strong> remains under control within China, which appears more and more likely, the need for a relentless pursuit of credit expansion will diminish further.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘As the current stimulus</strong> runs its full course through the remainder of the year, the onus would be back on private services business and jobs to take over the baton of growth with policy focusing concurrently on improving the credit allocation efficiency.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/sQE9LjY30q2wPvHm8p5eKTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wenzhe Zhao</strong> | Credit Suisse</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the virus remains under control within China, which appears more and more likely, the need for a relentless pursuit of credit expansion will diminish further.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Due to the recent policy stimulus,</strong> M2 growth in China has accelerated.’’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">Money aggregate,</strong> M2, responds to the monetary stimulus and transmits it to new spending.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's one-of-a-kind credit </strong>has helped stabilize the economy in the pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Infrastructure and real estate sectors</strong> have benefited disproportionately from the monetary stimulus, but private manufacturing, services, and parts of the household sector have lagged due to fragmented credit allocation mechanisms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The marginal impact</strong> of the current set of counter-cyclical stimulus in China has peaked, though is still positive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Policy priorities</strong> will likely shift again towards strategic reform goals as long as the virus remains under control domestically.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The recent acceleration</strong> in M2 growth is not expected to be inflationary.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite the modest size of the stimulus,</strong> its impact on M2 and economic growth has been salient.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pace of M2 growth</strong> between February and May averaged RMB 2.4tn per month, doubling that over the past two years (Figure 1, above).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both institutional and household deposits</strong> have notably grown, a more balanced outcome than past episodes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's industrial production</strong> and electricity consumption have fully recovered to previous highs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pushing resources</strong> with a heavy visible hand towards sectors that can yield an immediate economic upshot often creates economic imbalances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Counter-cyclical credit</strong> easing tends to strengthen the goods sector much more than services and is more likely to benefit government-sponsored activities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the current episode,</strong> commercial banks also need to shoulder deteriorating asset quality and brace for lower profitability.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese policymakers</strong> have long-acknowledged the side-effects with easy credit and have refrained themselves from stimulating the economy too bluntly this time around.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They have chosen</strong> not to announce the short-term GDP growth target for this year, a sign of their decreased willingness to sacrifice sustainability for short-term gains.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the virus</strong> remains under control within China, which appears more and more likely, the need for a relentless pursuit of credit expansion will diminish further.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the current stimulus</strong> runs its full course through the remainder of the year, the onus would be back on private services business and jobs to take over the baton of growth with policy focusing concurrently on improving the credit allocation efficiency.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:1rem; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.5rem; font-family: 'Lato'; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. A Stand-Up Move</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 0px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3.5% 5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UVcKu?track_p_id=3U6J9CKnja_h5uSiShLCnZc" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oS_I5yHF3ZBJYFBg-Xza9ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UVcKu?track_p_id=d3Nd%40lUqmUgyrG9CKnja_Ej" style="color:#001544; font-size:30px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; line-height:46px; letter-spacing:0.1px; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Xu Zhangrun &amp; the Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="display: none;                          margin-top:2.5rem;                          margin-bottom: 0rem;                          font-size: 14px;                          line-height: 21px;                          font-weight: normal;                          font-family: 'Lato';                          color: #5d5d5f;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>Voice of America</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Harvard has done a really stand-up thing.’</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>You can read </strong>a translation of Xu Zhangrun’s eloquent letter to the Fairbank Center <a href="http://chinaheritage.net/" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>This is one more tremendous service from </strong>Geremie R. Barmé and the ‘China Heritage’ website. <a href="http://chinaheritage.net/" rel="nofollow">Check it out!</a></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/remembering-kamala-harris-versus-neomi-rao/" rel="nofollow">National Review.</a></strong><strong>‘Harvard</strong> has done a really stand-up thing.’</p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Outspoken Chinese legal scholar Xu Zhangrun</strong> has received an invitation from Harvard University to be a researcher at the school's&nbsp;<a href="https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/" rel="nofollow">Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies</a>&nbsp;(FCCS), weeks after being fired by his former employer, Tsinghua University, for articles critical of President Xi Jinping.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>Note </strong>that in fact Xu is listed as an Associate in Research for the 2020-21 school year on the Fairbank Center website.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘ "We have much respect </strong>for Professor Xu's academic work," James Evans, the center's communications officer, told VOA's Mandarin service via email.’ [In the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3098339/chinese-communist-party-critic-xu-zhangrun-offered-harvard" rel="nofollow">SCMP</a>, this comment is credited to Fairbank Centre director Michael Szonyi.]</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"We thought it appropriate</strong> to make a gesture of support in light of recent developments, and therefore invited him to apply for an affiliation with us." &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘While the associate-in-research affiliation</strong> is ordinarily granted in response to a request by the scholar, Evans said FCCS found "it would be an effective way to express support for Prof. Xu in a timely fashion."&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘<a href="http://chinaheritage.net/journal/professor-xu-zhangruns-letter-to-the-fairbank-center-for-chinese-studies-at-harvard-university/" rel="nofollow">Xu wrote back to the center&nbsp;</a></strong>on Wednesday, thanking FCCS for the offer, saying it was "a substantive appointment that addresses the very core of my interests." ’ &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Lu Nan,</strong> a U.S.-based political commentator who is friends with Xu, said the Beijing authorities will not allow Xu to leave the country.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘ "I am 100% sure</strong> Xu's freedom of movement will be controlled," Lu told VOA. "Xu knows this — he can't physically leave China."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Just days ago,</strong> Xu received the Notice for Unemployed Individual from his former employer, the prestigious&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/index.htm" rel="nofollow">Tsinghua University</a>, officially finalizing termination of his contract.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong> ‘After receiving the offer from the Fairbank Centre,</strong> Xu also received a “Notice of Unemployed Person” from the committee of his neighbourhood on Wednesday. According to the notice, Xu is required to attend vocational guidance training at the committee’s office next week.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Xu was detained for a week</strong> in early July on charges of soliciting prostitutes in the southwestern city of Chengdu last year, which he denied.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/remembering-kamala-harris-versus-neomi-rao/" rel="nofollow">National Review.</a> ‘</strong><strong>That is a common ploy,</strong> on the part of dictatorships. The more common one, however, is child-rape: a charge of pedophilia.’</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Xu, who was barred from leaving China,</strong> had taught at Tsinghua University's law school for over two decades.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>‘In a series of articles</strong> published over the past few years, Xu has harshly criticized Xi, accusing him of moving toward authoritarianism since coming to power in 2012 and blaming him for China's political, economic and cultural setbacks.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong>‘Professor Jerome Cohen,</strong> founder of New York University's U.S.-Asia Law Institute, called Harvard's invitation to Xu "a brilliant move" that raises the question of whether other research organizations should also extend invitations to rights activists in China’.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"I have long thought</strong> that I should limit my contacts with distinguished human rights people in China, because it might add to their problems."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"But I see now,</strong> perhaps we should take the opposite approach and we should be inviting many of the great people in China who are oppressed or restricted in their activities to be associated with our research institutes."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>"I see what it has done for Professor Xu.</strong> He has put out a wonderful, extremely interesting essay in response to the honor Harvard extended to him. It is obviously a psychic income.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong>“It has given him greater resistance</strong> and greater strides in his struggle against oppression."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/VdxFRiApEsc4iyNP6Vw9RDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-family: 'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px;"><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p><h3 style="display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Lato';color: #5d5d5f;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Voice of America</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #c80000;padding: 3.5%;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Harvard has done a really stand-up thing.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You can read </strong>a translation of Xu Zhangrun’s eloquent letter to the Fairbank Center <a href="http://chinaheritage.net/" rel="nofollow"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">here</strong></span></a><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">.</strong></span> Moving and not a little heartbreaking.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is one more tremendous service from </strong>Geremie R. Barmé and the ‘China Heritage’ website.<span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong></span><a href="http://chinaheritage.net/" rel="nofollow"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Check it out!</strong></span></a></li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;">_______________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/remembering-kamala-harris-versus-neomi-rao/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">National Review.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Harvard</strong> has done a really stand-up thing.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">VOA. ‘Outspoken Chinese legal scholar Xu Zhangrun</strong> has received an invitation from Harvard University to be a researcher at the school's&nbsp;<a href="https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/" rel="nofollow">Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies</a>&nbsp;(FCCS), weeks after being fired by his former employer, Tsinghua University, for articles critical of President Xi Jinping.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Note </strong>that in fact Xu is listed as an 'Associate in Research' for the 2020-21 school year on the Fairbank Center website, even though it is unlikely he will be allowed to leave China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "We have much respect </strong>for Professor Xu's academic work," James Evans, the center's communications officer, told VOA's Mandarin service via email.’ [In the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3098339/chinese-communist-party-critic-xu-zhangrun-offered-harvard" rel="nofollow">SCMP</a>, this comment is credited to Fairbank Centre director Michael Szonyi.]</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"We thought it appropriate</strong> to make a gesture of support in light of recent developments, and therefore invited him to apply for an affiliation with us." &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the associate-in-research affiliation</strong> is ordinarily granted in response to a request by the scholar, Evans said FCCS found "it would be an effective way to express support for Prof. Xu in a timely fashion."&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="http://chinaheritage.net/journal/professor-xu-zhangruns-letter-to-the-fairbank-center-for-chinese-studies-at-harvard-university/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xu wrote back to the center&nbsp;</strong></a>on Wednesday, thanking FCCS for the offer, saying it was "a substantive appointment that addresses the very core of my interests." ’ &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lu Nan,</strong> a U.S.-based political commentator who is friends with Xu, said the Beijing authorities will not allow Xu to leave the country.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "I am 100% sure</strong> Xu's freedom of movement will be controlled," Lu told VOA. "Xu knows this — he can't physically leave China."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just days ago,</strong> Xu received the Notice for Unemployed Individual from his former employer, the prestigious&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/index.htm" rel="nofollow">Tsinghua University</a>, officially finalizing termination of his contract.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After receiving the offer from the Fairbank Centre,</strong> Xu also received a “Notice of Unemployed Person” from the committee of his neighbourhood on Wednesday. According to the notice, Xu is required to attend vocational guidance training at the committee’s office next week.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xu was detained for a week</strong> in early July on charges of soliciting prostitutes in the southwestern city of Chengdu last year, which he denied.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/remembering-kamala-harris-versus-neomi-rao/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">National Review.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘That is a common ploy,</strong> on the part of dictatorships. The more common one, however, is child-rape: a charge of pedophilia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xu, who was barred from leaving China,</strong> had taught at Tsinghua University's law school for over two decades.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a series of articles</strong> published over the past few years, Xu has harshly criticized Xi, accusing him of moving toward authoritarianism since coming to power in 2012 and blaming him for China's political, economic and cultural setbacks.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Professor Jerome Cohen,</strong> founder of New York University's U.S.-Asia Law Institute, called Harvard's invitation to Xu "a brilliant move" that raises the question of whether other research organizations should also extend invitations to rights activists in China.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I have long thought</strong> that I should limit my contacts with distinguished human rights people in China, because it might add to their problems."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"But I see now,</strong> perhaps we should take the opposite approach and we should be inviting many of the great people in China who are oppressed or restricted in their activities to be associated with our research institutes."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I see what it has done for Professor Xu.</strong> He has put out a wonderful, extremely interesting essay in response to the honor Harvard extended to him. It is obviously a psychic income.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5rem;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It has given him greater resistance</strong> and greater strides in his struggle against oppression."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-block-start: 1rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;font-size: 18px;line-height: 30px;font-weight: normal;font-family: 'Noto Serif';color: #001544;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:1rem; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; 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width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/malcolmriddell/" target="_blank" title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color:#001544; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.15em; border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;">Malcolm Riddell 大宝 — your editor</a></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align:top; padding:2% 3.5%"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/malcolmriddell/" target="_blank" title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;"><img width="80" style="border-radius:5%; border:1px solid #ddd; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e50856bfd13de839671f2be_MR%202020.png" alt="Malcolm_Riddell"></a></td><td style="vertical-align:top; padding-left:7%; padding-right:5px; font-size: 1em;line-height: 1.825em;letter-spacing: -0.1px; font-family:'Noto Serif'; color: #001544;">As investment banker, diplomat, lawyer, Harvard academic, and CIA spy, I have participated in China affairs for more than 40 years.                                </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top; padding-right:3.5%; font-size: 1em; letter-spacing: -0.1px; font-family:'Noto Serif'; color: #001544; text-align:right;"><a href="mailto:malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color:#001544; border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;"><span style="line-height:1.75">✉️</span><span style="padding-left:5px;">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</span></a></td></tr><tr><td style="height:30px; font-size:0; background:#fff;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%; color:#001544; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'; font-size: 1.15em; border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;">CHINADebate                        </td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align:top; padding:2% 3.5%"><a href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank" title="CHINADebate" style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;"><img width="80" style="border-radius:5%; border:1px solid #ddd; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d0d4bb287c46a75c78e8d21_Title.jpg" alt="CHINADebate"></a></td><td style="vertical-align:top; padding-left:7%; padding-right:2%; font-size: 1em;line-height: 1.825em;letter-spacing: -0.1px; font-family:'Noto Serif'; color: #001544;">CHINADebate presents the best thinking from top China experts around the world — meetings, interviews, webasts, and newsletters. Founded by Malcolm Riddell in 2012.                                </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:30px; font-size:0; background:#fff;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>August 12, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5S0OUC?track_p_id=1X8TzJyI_VTE5%40yOssGOp1l" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5S0OUC?track_p_id=dZYEEvYkoVsshw8TzJyI_gk" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">TikTok/WeChat | Jimmy Lai's Arrest | Sec Azar's Taiwan Visit</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5S0OUC?track_p_id=5vRDgS8TzJyI_jqQ3oNNfat" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/yFphxEfwPePmOC_d_T40YEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5S0OUC?track_p_id=6i2SC%40V8TzJyI_PVu%40FbXsO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">TikTok/WeChat | Jimmy Lai's Arrest | Sec Azar's Taiwan Visit</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It’s August,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> and from now until Labor Day, the China Macro Reporter will publish less often and have fewer posts.</em></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But if some big things happen,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> we’ll bring you the analyses you need to understand those events.</em></span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Three big things</strong> to follow:</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President’s moves</strong> to ban TikTok and WeChat</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The arrest of Jimmy Lai</strong> in Hong Kong</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Secretary Azar’s</strong> visit to Taiwan.</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump’s moves</strong> to ban TikTok and WeChat in the U.S. – big deals in themselves&nbsp; - appear to be part of a broader strategy, or strategies. The FT quotes Bonnie Glaser:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“While Trump and his campaign team</strong> are using China to boost his re-election chances, senior administration officials have other goals,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “They appear to want to lock in</strong> strategic, system rivalry with China so that if Biden is elected it can’t be reversed.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Which raises</strong> the questions:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To win, will Mr. Trump,</strong> egged on by the China Hawks who have their own agenda, escalate his punitive actions against China before the election?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If he is re-elected</strong> will he ease off the throttle or just keep going? And if he just keeps going, how will that impact Asian regional security, international finance, and global markets?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally,</strong> can this flurry of moves really bind a Biden administration? In the current bipartisan China-bashing mood a President Biden could have a tough time going against the status quo left by the Trump administration.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The arrest of Jimmy Lai,</strong> the highest-profile so far, leaves no doubt about how China intends to implement the National Security Law in Hong Kong.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As some have noted,</strong> Xi Jinping didn’t need tanks to cow Hong Kong’s citizens; he just needed a platform for ‘white terror,’ and he has that now.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Among the many reasons</strong> the arrest of Jimmy Lai is different from the rest of the increasingly intense crackdown is that he not only known as a fearless pro-democracy advocate in Hong Kong, but he has also met with officials in Washington, including Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi, to discuss Hong Kong’s plight.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the same way</strong> that George Floyd became the symbol of Black Lives Matter, Mr. Lai – especially if he is tried in China, not Hong Kong, and is, as expected, given a harsh sentence up to life imprisonment – Mr. Lai could become a symbol and rallying point in Hong Kong and in the world against China’s repressive regime.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ultimately,</strong> the meaning of Jimmy Lai’s arrest is that, as the FT Editorial Board puts it:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Freedom of the press</strong> appears to have ended in Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The instinct of many multinational businesses</strong> based in Hong Kong will be to keep their heads down and hope that they can continue to prosper — if they steer clear of politics.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That strategy</strong> may work in the short term. But it will still be fraught with risk.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will analysts at a Hong Kong financial institution</strong> dare a critical assessment of key topics — such as the sustainability of the peg between the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar; or question the business interests of key members of the Chinese governing elite?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Hong Kong brand</strong> has always been bound up with the rule of law and freedom of expression.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without those freedoms,</strong> Hong Kong will be a sadly diminished place.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally,</strong> Secretary Azar’s official visit to Taiwan, the highest-level U.S. official to visit in decades, and his strong message of support from President Trump could signal a new – and much needed – rethinking of U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its defense.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Or it could</strong> just be a campaign move.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Either way</strong> China is not happy.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But not as unhappy</strong> as it would have been if a senior national security official had made the visit.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Baby steps.</strong> Baby steps.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. From China Rhetoric to Action</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PHZGS?track_p_id=74moYP3W5At1EU_LD%40c5Ga1" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/9LSioKgMjYvc5O-fygiKS0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PHZGS?track_p_id=cUPPz5tb3S5eZ5At1EU_sWl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump's swift, sweeping China offensive'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PHZGS?track_p_id=1o5At1EU_y1Vw424jQRdQeQ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/tLa94SAZCog0pXbPJZVrxUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PHZGS?track_p_id=3lWE5At1EU_P4IGGHaagDFu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump's swift, sweeping China offensive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Axios</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">David Lawler </strong>| Axios</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bottom line:&nbsp;It feels as though we’ve seen a decades’-worth of hawkish policies proposed or executed just in the past few weeks.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump's rhetoric on China</strong> has tended to run hotter than his actions —&nbsp;until now.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why it matters:&nbsp;</strong>Even at the height of Trump's trade war, his administration never hit China as hard, as fast, and on as many fronts as it is right now.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thursday night</strong>, Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-china-tiktok-wechat-c6902d5d-649d-476d-8dec-a84e29ee06b6.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">escalated his campaign</a>&nbsp;to claw apart the Chinese and American tech worlds with executive orders that threaten to ban both TikTok and massive global messaging app WeChat.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Friday</strong>, the Treasury Department&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/us-sanctions-carrie-lam-hong-kong-china-0884330d-5755-4d91-bc17-358e5b1470c9.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">sanctioned Carrie Lam</a>, Hong Kong's Beijing-backed leader for "implementing Beijing's policies of suppression of freedom and democratic processes." ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That move follows</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/us-sanctions-china-paramilitary-xinjiang-xpcc-41e29c92-9649-4e47-9e91-a7f78330d4d8.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=sendto_newslettertest&amp;stream=top" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">sanctions</strong></a>&nbsp;on the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a powerful paramilitary organization, for its role in the mass detention of ethnic minorities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. has</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/us-china-consulate-closures-espionage-spying-ad9c5e77-eb1d-4ccf-8315-6906cf981ebc.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">closed China’s consulate</strong></a>&nbsp;in Houston, stepped up its efforts to keep Chinese telecom giant Huawei out of allies' 5G networks, and even&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/bill-barr-us-companies-china-8532218d-b20b-4dd3-86e1-c481c1744178.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">warned blue chip American companies</a>&nbsp;that they could face legal penalties for doing Beijing's bidding.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Health Secretary Alex Azar</strong>&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">will</strong>&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">soon</strong>&nbsp;become the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan in four decades, in a pointed signal of support for the self-governing island that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/azar-taiwan-visit-us-high-level-trip-first-7d285127-2dda-40d2-a025-8cc4e4b28e34.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">has infuriated Beijing</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Between the lines:&nbsp;</strong>In some cases, Trump has been responding to China's actions — most notably, the draconian security law for Hong Kong. But there may be more to the sudden offensive.’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Politics:</strong>Trump is betting a tough-on-China push will resonate with voters in an election year, and his advisers — including trade adviser Peter Navarro,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/peter-navarro-tiktok-19ba01a8-8368-4c25-bb2f-13fc09e71d13.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">on our Pro Rata podcast</a>&nbsp;— often&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/china-coronavirus-poll-cbbc0dc4-7c3a-4cc7-8b83-cb1c7dcacc89.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">cite polling</a>&nbsp;suggesting he’s right to do so.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trade:</strong>Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-uighur-muslims-sanctions-d4dc86fc-17f4-42bd-bdbd-c30f4d2ffa21.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">has admitted</a>&nbsp;his desire to secure a trade deal with China caused him to pull punches in the past, including over the mass detentions in Xinjiang. Trade talks&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-says-he-is-not-interested-in-trade-talks-with-china-idUSKCN24F2Q4" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">are now on ice</a>, perhaps permanently.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Markets</strong>: Thanks to the $2 trillion CARES Act and the Federal Reserve's promise to do "whatever it takes" to support markets, investors have largely ignored trade war headlines and continued to bid stock prices higher.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bottom line:</strong>&nbsp;It feels as though we’ve seen a decades’-worth of hawkish policies proposed or executed just in the past few weeks, notes Axios China reporter Bethany Allen-Ebrahmian.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Banning TikTok &amp; WeChat</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8WZ2vI?track_p_id=8tJP6uw4G5OjEsA_lWjRZts" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/fT8DySfKfRttY-U-TpJFkEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8WZ2vI?track_p_id=1W5OjEsA_VAJoXpsEJdGVPa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why is the Trump administration banning TikTok and WeChat?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8WZ2vI?track_p_id=aMukdIwcd5A5OjEsA_gan3s" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/LSLWKBI6HgWWsgSz40ANz0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8WZ2vI?track_p_id=1w5OjEsA_G3sjYlaMu1ZXII" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why is the Trump administration banning TikTok and WeChat?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Brookings</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jeffrey Gertz |</strong> Brookings</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We appear to be headed toward a world where the internet applications available to citizens differ based on where they live—and the geopolitical commitments of their home country governments.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Late Wednesday night,</strong> President Trump issued&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-tiktok/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">executive</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-addressing-threat-posed-wechat/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">orders</a>&nbsp;that will effectively ban two major Chinese apps from the U.S. market.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The orders state</strong> that, 45 days from now, Americans will be prohibited from carrying out any transactions with the parent companies of TikTok and WeChat—meaning U.S. companies and individuals couldn’t advertise with the platforms, offer them for download via app stores, or enter into licensing agreements with them.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">TikTok. ‘For TikTok,</strong> the most immediate question is how this will influence a possible acquisition by Microsoft.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Microsoft </strong>had previously publicly announced its interest in acquiring TikTok and was in advanced talks with both the U.S. government and ByteDance to work out the details of such a transaction subject to any CFIUS concerns.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the last few days,</strong> President Trump has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53633315" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">declared that he expected any such deal to also include a substantial payment to the U.S. Treasury</a>—a request without any clear founding in CFIUS statutes, and which may have raised some red flags for Microsoft.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new IEEPA ruling </strong>now means any sale of TikTok would need to be complete within 45 days, and also seemingly would prevent any ongoing commercial relationships between TikTok U.S. assets owned by Microsoft and TikTok operations still owned by ByteDance operating in other countries.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would appear</strong> to make it impossible for certain star TikTok performers to have licensing deals integrated across TikTok platforms, for instance, or for any joint branding.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Wednesday’s declaration </strong>thus likely lowers the value of TikTok U.S. to Microsoft (or any other potential acquirer).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If this ultimately quashes </strong>a deal and leads TikTok to entirely pull out of the U.S. market, the Trump administration may face political ramifications from 100 million disappointed users of the app in the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WeChat. ‘With respect to WeChat,</strong> meanwhile, the biggest immediate question is how well the app will be able to continue functioning after the ban goes into effect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ban</strong> would seemingly block new downloads or updates of WeChat from any app stores within the U.S., but would not cut off access overnight.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Continued functionality of WeChat</strong> is an important concern for the Chinese diaspora in the U.S.; in part because access to many American social network apps is blocked in China,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/business/trump-china-wechat-tiktok.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">WeChat is a primary communication tool for students and immigrants to keep in touch with friends and family in China</a>.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Impact. ‘The executive orders </strong>also underline what’s at stake in the potential “decoupling” of the U.S. and Chinese economies, and raise the prospect of a splintered global internet.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We appear to be headed toward</strong> a world where the internet applications available to citizens differ based on where they live—and the geopolitical commitments of their home country governments.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> this has long been the case in China, where the Chinese Communist Party’s ”<a href="https://www.scmp.com/abacus/who-what/what/article/3089836/story-chinas-great-firewall-worlds-most-sophisticated" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">Great Firewall</a>” has significantly limited how the internet is experienced in China in line with its own political objectives.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But</strong> if this move signals the U.S. government is going to follow a similar path, then a broader rupturing of the global internet may be at hand.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. The Vise Tightens in Hong Kong</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6atyCm?track_p_id=5WNVq66sbF0Q_gaphr3C5VR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/5UuPvEoCc6pbXv9dMT1crki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6atyCm?track_p_id=2XU6sbF0Q_UqqHArWaT4%40Ns" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong media entrepreneur and activist Jimmy Lai arrested' [from the German]</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/e73wRLDj6t5OydijPZo9wDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6atyCm?track_p_id=7oRX4DQA6sbF0Q_3zOUkqQg" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/qbRpfEh5B3MX_AVTZBNvK0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6atyCm?track_p_id=amrh631ZB2u6sbF0Q_HgjSu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong media entrepreneur and activist Jimmy Lai arrested [Hongkong: Medienunternehmer und Aktivist Jimmy Lai festgenommen]&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Der Spiegel</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Jimmy Lai is self-confident, loud - and has been a figure of hatred for Beijing's propaganda for years.&nbsp;The police have now arrested the publisher who is critical of China.&nbsp;He faces imprisonment, possibly for life.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese censors</strong> no longer bothered to suppress the first international comments.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the screen</strong> almost always goes black when Western news channels report from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.spiegel.de/thema/hongkong/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">Hong Kong</a>, this message initially went uncensored on Monday morning in China:'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'</strong><a href="https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/hongkonger-medienunternehmer-und-aktivist-jimmy-lai-festgenommen-a-0fe869d7-3511-41f0-aba6-d10f42f944b0" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jimmy Lai arrested</strong></a>- Hong Kong's pro-democratic media tycoon, a "bitter government critic," as the BBC aptly called him.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Icy"</strong> is the atmosphere that is now&nbsp;spreading in the city&nbsp;five weeks after&nbsp;<a href="https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/hongkong-neue-details-zu-chinas-sicherheitsgesetz-a-3ec238b0-aa97-4399-bec3-e7abee8f9aca" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">the new State Security Act was</a> imposed.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is the most massive attack</strong> by the authorities on Hong Kong's media to date - and Jimmy Lai the most prominent representative of the democratic camp, who was arrested for violating the new so-called security law.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He is suspected</strong> of "colluding with foreign powers".’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Should he be convicted,</strong> he faces three to ten years, if his case is classified as "serious", even life imprisonment.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Jimmy Lai</strong> has been arrested several times for minor offenses such as participating in unauthorized demonstrations.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So far he has always</strong> been released on bail.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is not to be expected</strong> under the new State Security Act.'&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is even possible</strong> that he will be tried not in Hong Kong but in mainland China.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Lai will most likely face</strong> a heavy sentence," announced the Beijing Global Times.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition to violating the new security law,</strong> the authorities are apparently preparing a fraud charge against Lai.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing</strong> seems to want to make sure that Hong Kong's judiciary does not release him on bail again.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Hong Kong's police</strong> couldn't do much against you," commented a user on the Chinese short message service Weibo.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"The security law can."</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/90mAsq?track_p_id=ccNTE4xt5nhzV8wgjS2_HBv" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/90mAsq?track_p_id=2EO8wgjS2_3sAuOwxSh%40F3l" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Who Is Jimmy Lai and Why Was the Apple Daily Publisher Arrested in Hong Kong?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/90mAsq?track_p_id=4U5nA8wgjS2_MxGTURC1a2l" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/47C-7DT_qXLeochltz93d0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/90mAsq?track_p_id=8CimNR%40Gu8wgjS2_ACyQDbs" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Who Is Jimmy Lai and Why Was the Apple Daily Publisher Arrested in Hong Kong?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But his arrest was no surprise. When China introduced the National Security Law on June 30, many commentators and pro-Beijing groups said Mr. Lai would be a top target.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Q: Who is Jimmy Lai?'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai,</strong> founder of the popular Apple Daily newspaper, was arrested Monday morning at his residence on allegations of foreign collusion under China’s national-security law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His two sons and four employees</strong> from his media company were also arrested, and about 200 police officers raided the newspaper’s newsroom.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here’s what we know</strong> about the media magnate and his newspaper.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The media mogul</strong> is the founder of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/HK/XHKG/282" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">Next Digital</a>,&nbsp;which publishes Apple Daily as its flagship newspaper and regularly criticizes China’s leaders as well as supporting last year’s protest movement.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He has been a longtime critic </strong>of China’s ruling Communist Party and in recent weeks has taken to doing a weekly Q&amp;A with viewers on his&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/TWTR" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">Twitter</a> He financially supported the city’s pro-democracy politicians.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Q: Why was he arrested?'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Police have said</strong> only that Mr. Lai was arrested with other Next employees on suspicion of colluding with foreign forces to interfere with China’s national security in Hong Kong, without providing specifics.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But his arrest</strong> was no surprise.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When China introduced the National Security Law</strong> on June 30, many commentators and pro-Beijing groups said Mr. Lai would be a top target.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘State media have accused Mr. Lai</strong> of colluding with foreign forces to promote the partly autonomous city’s secession from Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Lai met U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo</strong> in the White House in July last year to discuss Hong Kong’s political situation as residents of the city staged mass protests against a since-withdrawn bill that would have enabled criminal suspects to be sent from the city to mainland China for trial.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Lai also met Vice President Mike Pence</strong> on the trip, which drew condemnation from top Chinese officials.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> China’s national-security law, enacted on June 30, isn’t retroactive.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Q: What is Apple Daily known for?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Apple Daily</strong> has become one of Hong Kong’s most-read newspapers, increasingly known as a pro-democracy activist publication.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has printed protest posters</strong> both in the paper and separately for use at big demonstrations, such as the July 1 handover anniversary.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pro-democracy supporters in Hong Kong</strong> see buying a subscription and buying the company’s stock as ways to contribute to the protest movement.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6uCR4C?track_p_id=cyveQt3Y%40aNOl8KgxSg_14X" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Fo7ntZ9ZrZNKfYOiaIEwBEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6uCR4C?track_p_id=1H8KgxSg_5A2W1j%40CZwFBpU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Watch the Jimmy Lai Case</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/dcRB_kWH5UQ6-pveSdL1nDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6uCR4C?track_p_id=2dq8KgxSg_NCzeEkrCqOerK" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K3QnfSaJPzkG44VHcoZ_r0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6uCR4C?track_p_id=2md8KgxSg_pmI%40YAde4gxdJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Watch the Jimmy Lai Case</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jerry’s Blog</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jerome A. Cohen</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the next few months, it will be very important to try to observe the procedures in these new types of Hong Kong criminal cases.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The recent&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://jeromecohen.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=75ccbf179b52f85e76067015c&amp;id=af8b6e7ad1&amp;e=387aa8fa4b" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">arrest of Jimmy Lai</strong></a>&nbsp;for “alleged foreign collusion” ’ raises questions.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the next few months,</strong> it will be very important to try to observe the procedures in these new types of Hong Kong criminal cases.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To what extent</strong> will court procedures be open for public observation?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will prosecutors</strong> be obligated to reveal in open court the bases for the&nbsp; arrests?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will defense counsel</strong> be allowed to inform the public about the details of the proceedings?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many questions </strong>have already arisen.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> regarding the six overseas activists abroad recently placed on the Wanted for Arrest list (one is a US citizen), has the PRC implemented the Interpol notification process?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If so,</strong> with what responses from various countries thus far?’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Lai’s case,</strong> will there now be a move to transfer him and his co-defendants to the Mainland for investigation and trial?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By what procedures?</strong> Secret or public? With any possible resort to HK courts?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a case</strong> that arose a few days earlier, are the four arrested suspects who are 21 and younger to be charged for their Internet messages alone or for other conduct?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How will their cases</strong> be processed?’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If HK’s Director of Public Prosecutions</strong> has just resigned because of the refusal of his bosses in the Department of Justice and higher in the HK Government to allow him to know about NSL prosecutions, how much will the HK Bar, the media and the public be allowed to know about such matters?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I hope the courageous Jimmy Lai’s</strong> confidence in his prison future is not misplaced.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In an interview with AFP,</strong> he said that “he is prepared for prison. If it comes, I will have the opportunity to read books I haven’t read.” ’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He has said</strong> he will not leave Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But can he</strong> be sure?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If transferred for detention</strong>, interrogation and trial on the Mainland under the NSL, he will leave HK against his will.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> is he correct in assuming that, if imprisoned, he will catch up on his reading?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mainland jails and prisons</strong> are not as lenient as some Hong Kong counterparts.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ask the two&nbsp;Canadian Michaels</strong> what books they have been reading, even though the lights may still be kept on in their cells 24/7!’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ask human rights lawyer Wang Quanzhang</strong> what he read during his five years of torture.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ask artist Ai Weiwei</strong> what he read during his months of “residential surveillance” at a designated location, even though he had to be released before prosecution because of political pressures.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Lai’s paper, Apple Daily,</strong> manages to continue to publish, I hope it can report on what has been too largely ignored to date— the underlying reasons why the HK Director of Public Prosecutions (HKDPP) resigned.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What does this foretell for Jimmy Lai </strong>and many others that the HKDPP is not only not allowed to decide who gets prosecuted under the NSL, but he is not even allowed to know what is going on in the decision-making process!'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Good luck, Jimmy!!’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Ramping Up U.S.-Taiwan Relations</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6iVZ56?track_p_id=8SaYPnK3d8xOSEA_madXgKs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6iVZ56?track_p_id=1H8xOSEA_HPAZKwfcPkP%40OH" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'As U.S.-China Ties Deteriorate, Taiwan’s Importance Grows&nbsp;'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/AN3CPrjvY4PzKyMOg-YqnDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6iVZ56?track_p_id=aoaZd3ZB%40bb8xOSEA_NkO%40F" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/uU7qmWyQOJg8fmmGA7lp70i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6iVZ56?track_p_id=cPIqgVepSyAwo8xOSEA_5o2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">As U.S.-China Ties Deteriorate, Taiwan’s Importance Grows&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Azar’s trip, the highest-level visit to Taiwan by an American official since Washington severed official ties with the island in 1979, pointed to the increasingly important role Taiwan will play in a brewing ideological battle between the two superpowers.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States’ top health official</strong> lauded Taiwan’s democracy and its response to the coronavirus. Taiwan’s president&nbsp;<a href="https://english.president.gov.tw/News/6026" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">hailed the island’s growing economic and public health ties</a>&nbsp;with the United States.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet just offstage</strong> from this show of bonhomie on Monday between Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services, and President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan was the looming force of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing claims Taiwan</strong> as its territory and underlined its opposition to official exchanges like Mr. Azar’s visit by sending two fighter jets toward the island, briefly crossing the median line in the strait separating mainland China and Taiwan, just before the talks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Azar’s trip,</strong> the highest-level visit to Taiwan by an American official since Washington severed official ties with the island in 1979, pointed to the increasingly important role Taiwan will play in a brewing ideological battle between the two superpowers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan and the United States</strong> have frequently framed their alliance as one based on “shared democratic values,” and China’s reaction was a reminder of the risks the island faces as it seeks a stronger relationship with Washington.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To Taiwan,</strong> the trip is a diplomatic coup and an opportunity to showcase its widely praised response to the virus, which it achieved despite efforts by China to diplomatically isolate the island.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ms. Tsai,</strong> in remarks welcoming Mr. Azar, said his visit showed that relations between the two sides “have never been better.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To Beijing,</strong> the visit is considered yet another provocation from the United States at the most volatile time in the bilateral relationship in decades.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ruling Communist Party</strong> sees the interactions between Taiwan and Washington as a challenge to its sovereignty and in defiance of its threats to unify the island with the mainland by force.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To the Trump administration,</strong> Mr. Azar’s visit is a chance to take a jab at China, which has sought to spin the coronavirus crisis as a testament to the strength of its authoritarian system.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a way for Washington</strong> to show that it backs Taiwan in the face of increasing efforts by China to keep the island off the international stage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “It is a true honor</strong> to be here to convey a message of strong support and friendship from President Trump to Taiwan,” Mr. Azar said in remarks at the Taiwanese presidential office before heading into a meeting with Ms. Tsai.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “Taiwan’s response</strong> to Covid-19 has been among the most successful in the world, and that is a tribute to the open, transparent, democratic nature of Taiwan’s society and culture.” '</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Gb7dA?track_p_id=06nGzGg_ev1tygwTnaRRzVX" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/p8Mr_cZOFApn0lBA1EmOyEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Gb7dA?track_p_id=1h6nGzGg_YeqojC2Lq6Kap5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Edging Towards China's Redline on Taiwan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Gb7dA?track_p_id=diuVAP4%40GbGHKL6nGzGg_BU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/bA4eXEEp5LdJVB-5uvFxk0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Gb7dA?track_p_id=2UG6nGzGg_U2rwWlJWiIWyu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Edging Towards China's Redline on Taiwan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">France24</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The fact that they didn’t choose to send a national security advisor or someone else suggests they are trying to come as close as possible to China’s red line but don’t want to cross it.”</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Throughout the 1990s</strong> the United States sent trade officials to Taiwan with regularity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Douglas Paal,</strong> a former head of the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington’s de facto embassy, said the Trump administration was still paying heed to China’s red line—that no US official handling national security visit Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The difference this time,</strong> he said, is the context, with Azar traveling at a time when relations between Washington and Beijing have hit a new low.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “Sending him to Taiwan</strong> shows respect for the old framework while putting a finger in China’s eye at the same time,” Paal said.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “The fact that they didn’t choose</strong> to send a national security advisor or someone else suggests they are trying to come as close as possible to China’s red line but don’t want to cross it.” '</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. China E-commerce</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4nRAGG?track_p_id=9RtBuYXSZk5WSX7O_lx6234" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ogPnTthZroUUftnKTlBoGEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4nRAGG?track_p_id=4vgQS5WSX7O_cd3DZHCZzYa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China's Major E-commerce Platforms</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/jZndVWuARIoT65lP0WbTpDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><h1 style="text-align: left;display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Cheng Li</strong></h1></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6l8gHQ?track_p_id=ck3k5uMgChGvW6UmZJ8_eqP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/-UodRTBu_jvItnQ302lnC0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6l8gHQ?track_p_id=7URNbM5E6UmZJ8_YI35kvLJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Will China’s E-commerce Reshape a Reopening World? –</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Cairo Review of Global Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Cheng Li &amp; Ryan McElveen</strong> | Brookings</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If not for the pandemic, China’s tech giants would not have innovated so quickly.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the early months of 2020,</strong> there was an unassailable advancement of China’s e-commerce platforms while many other sectors of the Chinese economy lay dormant.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While online sales</strong> dropped 0.8 percent overall when comparing the first quarters of 2019 and 2020, a broader comparison between those first quarters shows impressive year-on-year increases in several categories.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example</strong>, sales grew in physical commodities overall (by 5.9 percent); agriculture products (by 31 percent); fresh food (by 70 percent); and household necessities, including kitchenware and fitness equipment (by 40 percent).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The growth</strong> in these categories was made possible by the creative innovations of e-commerce platforms as well as their ability to keep consumers and employees safe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If not for the pandemic,</strong> China’s tech giants would not have innovated so quickly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Similarly,</strong> the government would not have moved so quickly to support their advancements, nor would their innovations have been as widely adopted by society.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their adaptation and success</strong> during the pandemic have been helped by the fact that they:’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘1) prioritized the health</strong> of their customers and employees by employing subsidies and price freezes on products and implementing safe delivery processes:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To deliver items</strong> to harder-to-reach places, firms ramped up the use of drones and self-driving vehicles.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘JD.com also employed its smart vehicles</strong> by&nbsp;sending them to the locked-down Wuhan border, where they were remotely operated from Beijing to make urgent deliveries.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘2) allowed easier access to medical services</strong> by promoting telemedicine and creating COVID-19 test booking platforms:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beginning in 2019,</strong> the government removed its ban on online sales of prescription drugs, and, during the coronavirus outbreak, allowed telemedicine services to both diagnose and treat patients.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘3) connected and networked communities</strong> by increasing the adoption of online education and livestreaming platforms:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth in online education</strong> has vastly outpaced expectations because of the pandemic, and the sector is expected to grow 12.3 percent to $61.5 billion this year.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps most significant for China’s economy,</strong> livestreaming has generated new sales channels for small merchants,&nbsp;enabling live interaction through which sellers can showcase their products—like clothes, food, and cosmetics—and personally respond to audience questions.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not all of China’s e-commerce advancements</strong> have been positive from the perspective of civil liberties and privacy protection.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They have laid bare</strong> the precarious nature of the close relationship between the government and tech companies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps most disconcertingly,</strong> data privacy is becoming an even greater concern given reports that, during the outbreak, Alibaba’s Ant Financial and Tencent&nbsp;<a href="https://qz.com/1860453/chinese-city-will-use-health-scores-for-citizens-even-after-covid-19/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;">developed</a>&nbsp;an app utilizing digital barcodes to help the government control the movement of people.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This feature</strong> will continue to live on in the Alipay and WeChat platforms as COVID-19 recedes and the country reopens.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6l8gHQ?track_p_id=06UmZJ8_XXC65Fu%40FYYKRVG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ogPnTthZroUUftnKTlBoGEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6l8gHQ?track_p_id=6SQhIru6UmZJ8_sVRWf1w6X" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Will China’s E-commerce Reshape a Reopening World?' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/smqDPl8ZmnHw6lVF_ot7_zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4nRAGG?track_p_id=05WSX7O_n4N5x5NPkra2FG6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/-UodRTBu_jvItnQ302lnC0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4nRAGG?track_p_id=avTz1TN5rUG5WSX7O_lu1UI" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China's Major E-commerce Platforms</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Cairo Review of Global Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Cheng Li &amp; Ryan McElveen</strong> | Brookings</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">The major e-commerce platforms</strong> in China today have expanded to include:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Suning </strong>(1990), which has 1,600 brick-and-mortar stores around the country and sells&nbsp;physical merchandise, ranging from home appliances to baby care products;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘JD.com or Jingdong&nbsp;</strong>(1998), which is a business-to-consumer marketplace that purchases inventory from brands and operates its own logistics chain;’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Tencent&nbsp;</strong>(1998), which developed the social media app WeChat and the WeChat mobile payment system and has financial stakes in JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo;’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Alibaba&nbsp;</strong>(1999), which developed the Alipay (Ant Financial) mobile payment system and has two major online retailers: Taobao and Tmall. Taobao was modeled on eBay as a consumer-to-consumer marketplace, whereas Alibaba’s Tmall was established as a business-to-consumer marketplace hosting local and international businesses;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ByteDance </strong>(2012), which is one of the newest entrants to e-commerce and plans to sell products through its internationally-renowned apps, Toutiao and Douyin (Tiktok). Tiktok, which allows users to share short videos and has become particularly popular during the global lockdown, has more than eight hundred million users;’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meituan-Dianping&nbsp;</strong>(2015),which is&nbsp;a merger of Groupon-like voucher sellers Meituan and Dianping and combines food delivery; restaurant, entertainment, and travel booking; and customer reviews into one universal&nbsp;online-to-offline&nbsp;platform; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pinduoduo&nbsp;</strong>(2015), which has become widely used in rural areas for its combination of bargain shopping, gaming, and social media, is the largest interactive e-commerce platform in the world and has overtaken JD.com to become the second largest e-commerce site in China behind Taobao.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>August 1, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vPTpw?track_p_id=6Mm1GV18T5oDu_qolzrpVss" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vPTpw?track_p_id=6F33KYw8T5oDu_BdfdT1roX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Democracy Worth Defending</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vPTpw?track_p_id=82jXv1Ykc8T5oDu_ffLce1Y" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/L8OYZRgVctWBHRpd_Kqh4Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vPTpw?track_p_id=4dV6F8T5oDu_T2pxsyF5dr4" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Democracy Worth Defending</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It’s August,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> and from now until Labor Day, the China Macro Reporter will publish less often and have fewer posts.</em></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But if some big things happen,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> we’ll bring you the analyses you need to understand those events.</em></span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On July 30,</strong> Taiwan’s first elected president, Lee Teng-hui died.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">His predecessor,</strong> the unelected and dictatorial president, Chiang Ching-kuo, began reforms (under not a little pressure from the Reagan administration), but it was Mr. Lee who led Taiwan to become a democracy.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When Mr Chiang died</strong> in 1988, his vice-president, Mr. Lee, succeeded him as president, the path to democracy was far from clear.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Conservative elements</strong> of ruling Kuomintang Party (KMT) had aimed to hinder or at least slow walk moves to popular elections.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The KMT</strong> had ruled Mainland China until its defeat by the Chinese Communist Party in 1949 and continued that rule after escaping to Taiwan.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For those conservatives,</strong> popular elections meant losing power.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Despite that opposition,</strong> Taiwan did have elections.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And in 1996,</strong> Lee was elected president.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As he wrote</strong> in <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em> in 1999:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democratic development</strong> in Taiwan has now reached the point of no return.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The people of Taiwan</strong> would never countenance any less-representative form of government.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fast forward to today:</strong> Taiwan has long passed that point of new return.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It has a vibrant,</strong> if raucous (think fistfights and pile-ons in the Legislative Yuan), democracy.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A democracy</strong> that will endure unless the People’s Republic of China achieves reunification by military force while the U.S. stands by.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For some time now</strong> the PRC has taken up the foreign policy space in the United States that Taiwan once occupied.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For some policymakers</strong> – especially those who didn’t live through Taiwan’s peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy – Taiwan is a bit of a nuisance, complicating U.S. policy with China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For them, </strong>defending Taiwan from an unprovoked PRC attack is folly.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">They are wrong.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So my purpose here</strong> today is put us in a time-machine that takes us back to the era when Taiwan made the transition to democracy to give a feel for the difficulties and the stakes that were involved.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And to rekindle our appreciation</strong> for what a precious thing Taiwan democracy is.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I lived in Taiwan</strong> in the 1980s and 1990s during this transition.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Being on hand</strong> at the birth of a democracy is perhaps my most treasured experience.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I even</strong> had a bit part.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Taiwan’s Wall Street Journal </strong>asked me to write a finance column.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">At first</strong> I wrote about M&amp;A, foreign investment, and the like.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But catching the enthusiasm of the era,</strong> I veered into commentary about and criticism of the KMT and the government.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The column was so popular</strong> that the paper continued to run it without demanding that I return to more benign topics.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That popularity</strong> brought me requests for meetings from government officials and cabinet ministers (including Minister of Foreign Affairs, Frederick Chien, whose essay in included below) to discuss what reforms Taiwan needed and, frankly, to try to coopt me to their points of view.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A few years</strong> before, my encounters with officials might have been their escorting me to jail or at least to the airport.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Other than the recent obituary of Lee Teng-hui,</strong> the posts below – our time-machine - were written during the transition.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">One, as mentioned,</strong> is by Frederick Chien; another by Lee Teng-hui himself; and the third by an observer from the U.S. – all from <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em>.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While they may seem arcane</strong> and too much inside baseball, I encourage you to have a look – and perhaps to click and read the entire essays.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As U.S.-China</strong> relations deteriorate and Xi Jinping becomes more assertive, the question of whether or not the U.S. should defend Taiwan from an unprovoked PRC attack could quickly become front and center.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My hope</strong> is that a better understanding of <em style="font-style: italic">how</em> Taiwan became a democracy will lead you to conclude or to reaffirm your conviction that Taiwan is worthy of U.S. defense.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. The Death of a Hero</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7weY3E?track_p_id=5LwpVe73naYw_ifr2IdRiFy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7weY3E?track_p_id=cxDVojxmVjiVa73naYw_BeM" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2020: 'Lee Teng-hui, 97, Who Led Taiwan’s Turn to Democracy, Dies'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:10px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/yFphxEfwPePmOC_d_T40YDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff;padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td style="font-size: 1em; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans; text-align:center; color: #001540; font-weight:600; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5em; font-style:italic;">from Time June 19, 1995                           <br>and the Chinese missiles flew in the Third Taiwan Straits Crisis                        </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7weY3E?track_p_id=4UlQY73naYw_vvpdRQQzVqy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/h-nkptRmU1cQTIlqQz4UxUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7weY3E?track_p_id=073naYw_ed3hK5T4ZVFE2PK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Lee Teng-hui, 97, Who Led Taiwan’s Turn to Democracy, Dies&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jonathan Kandell</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Its first popularly elected president, Lee Teng-hui transformed a police state into a vibrant country while angering Beijing by insisting that Taiwan be treated as a sovereign state.'</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">July 30, 2020</strong></em></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lee Teng-hui,</strong> who as president of Taiwan led its transformation from an island in the grip of authoritarian rule to one of Asia’s most vibrant and prosperous democracies, died on Thursday in Taipei, the capital. He was 97.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As president</strong> from 1988 to 2000 — the first to be elected by popular vote in Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Lee entered Taiwan’s politics</strong> during the dictatorial Nationalist Party regimes of Chiang Kai-shek and his son Chiang Ching-kuo, who assumed power after his father’s death in 1975.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Nationalists</strong> ruled with brutality, which reached a peak in 1947 with what became known as the February 28 incident, in which up to 28,000 Taiwanese were massacred by Chiang Kai-shek’s troops in response to street protests.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Nationalists</strong> imposed martial law two years later, and it was not lifted until 1987 by Chiang Ching-kuo.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With Chiang Ching-kuo</strong> installed as president, Mr. Lee was appointed mayor of Taipei in 1978 and set about modernizing the capital’s road and sewer systems.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As governor of Taiwan Province</strong>, from 1981 to 1984, he pushed agrarian reforms that helped achieve a balanced growth between urban and rural areas, still a hallmark of Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Chiang selected Mr. Lee</strong> as his vice president in 1984.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was a dramatic departure</strong> from the usual practice of appointing only former mainland Chinese to top government posts.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His selection</strong> was viewed as a gesture toward the native Taiwanese, who had been politically powerless despite accounting for 85 percent of the population.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Chiang Ching-kuo</strong> died of a heart attack in 1988, Mr. Lee succeeded him, becoming the first native Taiwanese president.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He moved to break</strong> with the Chiang family’s autocratic system, publicly deploring the February 28 massacres.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Lee dismantled the dictatorship</strong> and worked to end the animosity between those born on the mainland and the native Taiwanese.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He pushed</strong> the concept of “New Taiwanese,” a term suggesting that the islanders, no matter their backgrounds, were forging a common identity based on a democratic political system and growing prosperity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He ended decades</strong> of state-of-emergency measures, allowed citizens to send mail to mainland relatives and visit them, dropped bans on street demonstrations, eased press restrictions, promoted a multiparty system and decreed open elections for the National Assembly.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He pursued</strong> a deliberately ambiguous policy with mainland China, shifting between rigid hostility, tentative conciliation and defiant independence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His attempts</strong> to demonstrate Taiwan’s international sovereignty sometimes provoked the mainland into saber-rattling military exercises.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Lee was elected outright in 1996,</strong> in Taiwan’s first open presidential contest.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Seeking to begin a dialogue with Beijing,</strong> he supported a policy of “one China, two equal governments.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But he insisted</strong> that Taiwan would rejoin the mainland only if China became a democratic, capitalist society.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the meantime</strong> he again called for “state to state” relations between Taipei and Beijing, a policy that the mainland rejected. Instead, Chinese officials tried to persuade other countries to cut all ties with Taiwan, asserting that any improvement in relations would come only after Mr. Lee had retired.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan became a separate political entity in 1949</strong> after the civil war in China brought Mao’s Communists to power, forcing Chiang’s defeated government to flee to the island, some 100 miles from the mainland.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the next 30 years,</strong> Taiwan, with American support, maintained the fiction that it was the seat of China’s legitimate government in exile.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington finally recognized</strong> the Communist government in Beijing in 1979 and severed its formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it continued</strong> to guarantee Taiwan’s security against a mainland invasion and backed negotiations between both sides aimed at reunification’.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Liberalization Begins</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5QxZCq?track_p_id=9jGXdZKLVy8TEbmw_cIFnOl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5QxZCq?track_p_id=2Am8TEbmw_PNMErdIqovCQJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1988: 'Taiwan After Chiang Ching-kuo'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/8dtrRkbfu9eaf_Pz6BASTTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5QxZCq?track_p_id=3T1m8TEbmw_BYvmXhql1rRJ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/FTMDU--riaGigEWYzk1HBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5QxZCq?track_p_id=3L2A8TEbmw_53ZoxZpGAg%40C" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan After Chiang Ching-kuo</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Selig S. Harrison</strong> | Carnegie Endowment</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Above all, Chiang Ching-kuo recognized the need to make political concessions to a rising middle class and Taiwan-born majority that resents domination by the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) in-group of post-1945 mainland immigrants.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs, </strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">Spring 1988</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The uncertain outlook in Taipei</strong> following the death of President Chiang Ching-kuo [“C.C.K.”] on January 13, 1988, has underlined the dilemmas confronting American policymakers as they seek to develop stable ties with the People’s Republic of China while at the same time fulfilling U.S. obligations to Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the United States and China </strong>established diplomatic relations nine years ago, they were able to paper over their differences on the future of Taiwan.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Increasingly,</strong> however, this sensitive problem has become a focal point of conflict between Washington and Beijing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "C.C.K.,"</strong> who became president three years after the death of his father, Chiang Kai-shek, directed a remarkable transformation during his ten years in the presidency and an earlier 13-year apprenticeship as defense minister, vice premier and premier.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He accelerated the process of modernization</strong> that has given Taiwan a 13-percent growth rate, an annual per capita income of $4,600 and foreign exchange reserves of $76 billion, the world’s second largest.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Adapting with surprising ease </strong>to the role of politician, Chiang shed the hard-line image acquired as army political commissar and secret police chief from 1950 to 1965.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He developed a folksy political style;</strong> a baseball cap and turtleneck sweater became his trademark.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Above all,</strong> he recognized the need to make political concessions to a rising middle class and Taiwan-born majority that resents domination by the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) in-group of post-1945 mainland immigrants.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His death</strong> came just as he was beginning to liberalize the political process in the face of stiff conservative resistance.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In December 1985</strong> the late president formally announced that it would be incompatible with the constitution for a member of his family or a military officer to succeed him.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His choice as successor,</strong> 64-year-old technocrat Lee Teng-hui, a Cornell-trained agricultural economist, has been on the Kuomintang Standing Committee since 1979 and was appointed vice president in 1984.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In naming Lee,</strong> Chiang Ching-kuo did not disturb the authoritarian institutional structure of KMT rule, in which the armed forces, the intelligence services and the powerful presidential secretariat share power with the nominal party leadership.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lee enjoys strong public support</strong> as the first native Taiwanese to hold the presidency.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> he has no political base of his own.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chiang Ching-kuo’s liberalization moves</strong> produced a major change in the atmosphere but relatively limited concrete results.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His most popular reform</strong> gives civilians accused of national security offenses the right to be tried in civilian rather than military courts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the Democratic Progressive Party surfaced,</strong> he took the unprecedented step of permitting it to compete openly in the 1986 elections.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the government</strong> has yet to adopt formal legislation authorizing opposition parties.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Martial law</strong> was lifted in July 1987, a symbolic step of great importance, but a new national security law keeps the substance of martial law restrictions largely intact.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Critics emphasize</strong> that ubiquitous KMT political commissars keep a watchful eye on the bureaucracy, the military, the educational system and the press.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So far the government</strong> has failed to fulfill promises to liberalize regulations that keep the opposition from starting new newspapers and radio stations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Lee Teng-hui</strong> said that direct elections would come "someday," I asked him whether they would occur within five years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Maybe five or ten years,"</strong> he replied.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Make that</strong> eight years or so.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lee</strong> became Taiwan’s first elected president in 1996.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. From Dictatorship to Democracy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/79cLKa?track_p_id=ailUmVh1K6f85OIrW_YUI62" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/79cLKa?track_p_id=9pfh1XZby485OIrW_Ilrlwi" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1991: 'A View From Taipei'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/79cLKa?track_p_id=cQqV2dCOB5blm85OIrW_VX2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/UNjmiqEzo8evSLBFrvPCfUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/79cLKa?track_p_id=6X2Eziq85OIrW_qnmYgckmt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A View From Taipei</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fredrick F. Chien</strong> | Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is worth noting that the R.O.C. is the first Chinese-dominated society to practice pluralistic party politics. In that sense what we have been witnessing is truly revolutionary.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs, </strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">Winter 1991/92</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since 1949</strong> Taiwan has made slow progress toward democratization, the timing and direction of which was narrowly controlled by the government.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the mid-1980s</strong> Taiwan and Singapore had become the only non-oil exporting countries in the world with per capita incomes of at least $5,000 a year that did not have fully competitive democratic systems.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But today Taiwan</strong> has finally developed the proper economic and social base for successful democracy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An important step</strong> toward Taiwan's political reform came in 1986, when opposition forces formed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), defying a government ban on new political parties.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ruling Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalist Party)</strong> not only refrained from taking action against the opposition but made a series of moves in the following years that decidedly liberalized and democratized the nature of Taiwan's political system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The liberalization</strong> measures adopted by the KMT included replacing martial law with a new national security law, lifting press restrictions, revamping the judiciary and promulgating laws on assembly, demonstration and civil organization.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The democratization measures</strong> legalized opposition parties, redefined the rules for political participation-such as the electoral law-and include the ongoing reform of the legislature (the Legislative Yuan), the electoral college (the National Assembly) and the R.O.C. constitution.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This process of democratization,</strong> begun by President Chiang Ching-kuo before his death in January 1988, was given further impetus by his successor, Dr. Lee Teng-hui.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At his inauguration in May 1990,</strong> President Lee set a two-year timetable to complete the country's democratic transformation, including major structural and procedural reforms.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A National Affairs Conference</strong> was convened in June 1990 with delegates drawn from all major political and social forces.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After much public debate</strong> the NAC decided to end Taiwan's "mobilization period," begun in 1949, which had allowed the government extraordinary national security powers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A declaration to this effect,</strong> made by President Lee in May 1991, also included recognition that a "political entity" in Peking controls the mainland area.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the recommendation</strong> of the NAC the "temporary provisions" appended in May 1949 to the 1947 constitution, giving the government sweeping powers to deal with external and internal threats, were abrogated in early 1991.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the end of the year</strong> all the senior members of the Legislative Yuan and National Assembly elected on the mainland prior to 1949, and who have never been subject to reelection, will have retired.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A new National Assembly</strong> composed exclusively of representatives elected in Taiwan will then undertake the final phase of democratic reform: revision of the R.O.C. constitution.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Upon its completion in mid-1992,</strong> and after Legislative Yuan elections scheduled for the end of that same year, the R.O.C. will have become by any standard a full-fledged democracy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The R.O.C.'s democratization process</strong> is unique.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has not been initiated</strong> or monitored by external forces, as it was in Japan and West Germany.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nor was it undertaken</strong> after political or social upheavals, as in Greece or Argentina and lately in the Soviet Union.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather it has evolved peacefully</strong> within the country and is mainly the result of prosperity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the point</strong> is that the government of the R.O.C. itself has largely set the timing for its own democratization; the clock cannot and will not be turned back.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is worth noting</strong> that the R.O.C. is the first Chinese-dominated society to practice pluralistic party politics.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In that sense</strong> what we have been witnessing is truly revolutionary.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It realizes the dreams</strong> of many of our founding fathers-a dream for which many have sacrificed their lives.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And yet R.O.C. prosperity and democratization</strong> have been achieved without bloodshed and without overturning the existing socioeconomic order.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Taiwan's Imperfect Democracy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7l5OV6?track_p_id=1Z75rkQ2_MGe%40I6lZMQp3j1" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7l5OV6?track_p_id=cNf32MynhnamF75rkQ2_JS3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1999: 'Understanding Taiwan: Bridging the Perception Gap'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:10px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ux6MEgQsgk-OHVNPPmWjLjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff;padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td style="font-size: 1em; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans; text-align:center; color: #001540; font-weight:600; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5em; font-style:italic;">‘Of course, democracy on Taiwan is hardly perfect.’<br>                          Not another brawl in the Legislative Yuan                        </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7l5OV6?track_p_id=6e6UKAa75rkQ2_Io4h23fZH" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 2px solid #008dc8;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/FTMDU--riaGigEWYzk1HBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7l5OV6?track_p_id=bHMroO4Epq6A75rkQ2_eFdd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Understanding Taiwan: Bridging the Perception Gap</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lee Teng-hui</strong> | President of the Republic of China</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course, democracy on Taiwan is hardly perfect.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs, </strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">September 1999</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democratic development</strong> in Taiwan has now reached the point of no return.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The people of Taiwan</strong> would never countenance any less-representative form of government.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> democracy on Taiwan is hardly perfect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No democratic system is.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Having achieved full democracy</strong> in only one decade, the R.O.C. is still in the process of deepening and consolidating its system.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Traditional social values</strong> have been discarded while new ones have yet to take hold.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan is engaging</strong> in educational and spiritual reform to improve the quality of life by promoting cultural development, teaching new virtues and values while rediscovering traditional ones, and developing the sense of civic and social responsibility.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Only nations</strong> willing to relinquish the known certainties of old-style authoritarianism for the unknowns of modern democracy can ultimately enjoy the flexibility, efficiency, and transparency necessary to meet the competitive challenges of globalization sweeping the world today.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What Taiwan has done in the past decade</strong> is remarkable for the speed and scope of its economic and political changes and for the peaceful way in which such changes have been achieved.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is in the best interest</strong> of regional and even global peace and stability for Beijing to embrace democracy rather than try to contain it.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>