<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 29, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8LznVY?track_p_id=aTTOkvfmWYW5HUE8c_y4PCx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8LznVY?track_p_id=b132AuNXwoiK5HUE8c_sSXm" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Pompeo's New - and Dangerous - China Policy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8LznVY?track_p_id=05HUE8c_EpWWC1TqOIsANiR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/L8OYZRgVctWBHRpd_Kqh4Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8LznVY?track_p_id=7vRYayT65HUE8c_5MmuZkJL" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For a while,</strong> we have had a disturbing lack of clarity about U.S. policy toward China and an even more disturbing lack of debate about what that policy should be.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Over the past several weeks</strong> though Trump’s China Hawks have taken over the helm.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unlike Mr. Trump’s transactional approach,</strong> these guys are believers in our epic ideological struggle with China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That gives some clarity</strong> and has (thankfully) reignited debate.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But for executive and investment geopoliticians</strong> (and we all have to be geopoliticians today), this has created new complexities and risks to factor into their decisions.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today’s issue</strong> looks at this new and changing landscape.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'The US-China rift is now about values'&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Pompeo</strong> has emerged as the leader of the China Hawks.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He is not</strong> transactional like the president.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He hates the Chinese regime</strong> the way Reagan hated communism.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But, as Senator Lloyd Bentsen</strong> might say: ‘Mr. Secretary, you’re no Ronald Reagan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He gave a barnburner</strong> of a speech last week that made clear the U.S. and China are in an ideological struggle.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And that is the one hallmark</strong> of a Cold War that has been missing to date. But not anymore.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Pompeo's China Speech: Two Views</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The titles</strong> of the respective essays tell the story:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Pompeo’s speech</strong> opens a bold new chapter in U.S.-China relations.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'What Mike Pompeo</strong> doesn’t understand about China, Richard Nixon and U.S. foreign policy.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here I can agree</strong> with both titles but associate myself with the second.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What this guy</strong> doesn’t understand is not only scary, it’s dangerous.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'Can the Trump administration lock in its foreign policy?'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As recent actions, </strong>including Secretary Pompeo’s speech, show the Trump administration (if not Trump himself) is going all-out hardline.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Daniel Denzer of The Fletchter School says: </strong>‘This gives rise to an important question:’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can&nbsp;</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">the Trump administration</strong> lock in foreign policy shifts?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The answer is,</strong> as you might expect, yes and no.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Learn more</strong> in ‘My Take’ just below, and in the posts.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. 'People of China unite. You have nothing to lose but your chains!</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">One striking aspect</strong> of Mike Pompeo’s speech was his call to the Chinese people to join the U.S. in changing China’s totalitarian regime.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pompeo</strong> is assuming of course that the Chinese people want to change the regime.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As the latest installment</strong> of the Harvard Kennedy School’s survey, ‘Understanding CCP Resilience: Surveying Chinese Public Opinion Through Time,’ tells us:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since 2003 </strong>[the first year of the survey], Chinese citizen satisfaction with government has increased virtually across the board.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You say you want</strong> a revolution, Mr. Pompeo?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Maybe</strong> try Iran.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. 'Senate Republicans’ China Policy Is Better Than Trump’s'&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You’ve often read my</strong> advice to keep an eye on Congress to see where China policy is really going.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Up until now</strong> that meant watching the flurry of bills introduced mainly by those on the far-ish right.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now that advice</strong> has hit pay dirt with four of the more moderate Senators’ putting forth new legislation: “The Strengthening Trade, Regional Alliances, Technology, and Economic and Geopolitical Initiatives Concerning China Act” [STRATEGIC].</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Aspects of the Strategic Act</strong> — such as its call for a more united economic front —&nbsp;<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/team-bidens-policies-on-china-and-taiwan/" rel="nofollow">overlap&nbsp;</a>fairly well with Biden’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-12/biden-s-foreign-policy-goal-is-to-mend-trump-s-damage?sref=nmVx3tQ5" rel="nofollow">platform</a>&nbsp;and dovetail with ideas that U.S. allies have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/825870b5-99a3-4b45-9fb3-1baa7772f011" rel="nofollow">pushing</a>&nbsp;for years,'&nbsp;writes SAIS’s Hal Brands.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So it may have staying power </strong>whoever wins the upcoming election.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stay tuned.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. A Look Back: Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon have a chat, February 21, 1972&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Pompeo</strong> frames his new China policy as the successor to Richard Nixon’s when he opened the U.S. to China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here we have a recently declassified</strong> conversation between Mao and Nixon.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For those in doubt,</strong> it shows that Nixon’s aim was not ‘engagement,’ as Mr. Pompeo asserts – it was countering the Soviet Union.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nixon was a bad guy</strong> in so many ways, but he was a heck of a geopolitician.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gbPNY?track_p_id=4YEQY8Xnp66_EEgyfpO6aVb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gbPNY?track_p_id=1J8Xnp66_Om3CnXuyFc6cEW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">My Take: 'I Pity the Poor Fool Who has to Make Decisions Today.'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gbPNY?track_p_id=eWl3OFs3DfjB4m18Xnp66_n" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">I Pity the Poor Fool Who has to Make Decisions Today.&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell </strong>| CHINADebate</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Mr. T might say, ‘I pity the fool who has to make decisions today.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Doesn’t seem that long ago</strong> when geopolitics was the realm of the geopoliticians, or if we were lucky, statesmen and stateswomen.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now it permeates</strong> business and investment decisions.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, </strong>everyone has to be a geopolitician.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is tough</strong> on executives and institutional investors because even when the world is relatively stable, it’s hard to see all the moving parts and how they move.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How much more difficult</strong> in a world where those parts are moving like quantum particles.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Mr. T might say, ‘</strong>I pity the fool who has to make decisions today.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dominating today</strong> is the U.S.-China relationship, made all the more confusing by the random and sometimes just dumb actions by the Trump administration.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And now we are in an election year</strong> where the outcome could be more of the same or a new approach.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said, </strong>there is now a clear change on China in the Trump administration.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">After more</strong> than three years of vacillating between (for lack of better appellations) the China hawks and doves in his circle, the administration has a firmer direction: Beat China up.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Hawks </strong>are now in charge.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Emerging as the leader </strong>of this faction is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is not surprising</strong> if you’ve been following his comments on China over the past few years.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unlike Mr. Trump</strong>, who is framed as a person with few deep convictions, Mr. Pompeo is a believer.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He hates</strong> the Chinese regime the way Reagan hated communism.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Pompeo </strong>gave a barnburner of China speech last week at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum. The symbolism was transparent, if flawed:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nixon set in motion</strong> the U.S. policy of engagement with China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pompeo </strong>declares that is over.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In its place:</strong> ‘Distrust and verify.’ (A play of course on Mr. Reagan’s ‘trust but verify,’ and the nicest thing he had to say.)</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The problem, </strong>(to continue with another mangled quote from the Cold War era) as Senator Lloyd Bentsen might say:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Secretary,</strong> you are no Ronald Reagan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo also sought to commit</strong> the United States to a path that is bound to fail,’ writes Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hawkish</strong> as I am, I have to agree.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pompeo’s picture of China</strong> and what the U.S. has to do are as inaccurate and dystopian as the picture of America in Mr. Trump’s inaugural address.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Pompeo’s speech</strong> generated much commentary.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Within that,</strong> two big ideas caught my attention.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The first,</strong> from the FT Editorial Board.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until now,</strong> talk of a repeat of the cold war has seemed over the top.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America and the Soviet Union</strong> fell out over rather more than a current-account imbalance, after all, or even a technological race.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was a clash</strong> of incompatible ideologies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Each side</strong> wanted to maximise the share of the world that subscribed to its model, or at least remained nonaligned.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US and China are not there yet,</strong> but the direction of travel is unmistakable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their squabbles</strong> are much wider ranging than at the start of the Trump administration, and touch on values as much as material interests.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have rejected calling</strong> whatever the U.S. and China are engaged in a Cold War. My reasoning:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">At</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">its core,</strong> the Cold War was a struggle of ideologies.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Trump’s beefs </strong>with China are transactional, not ideological.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Therefore, </strong>no Cold War 2.0 or whatever.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But Mr. Trump</strong> seems to have abandoned the helm to the ideologues.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Mr. Pompeo’s speech demonstrates,</strong> he and his ilk are grounding their vision in just such a struggle of ideologies.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Therefore, </strong>Cold War 2.0 may capture either the current situation or the ‘direction of travel.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second big idea</strong> comes from the way we console ourselves when we say:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Who cares</strong> that Trump or the China Hawks have suddenly decided to get tough with China?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When Biden is president,</strong> he’ll walk a lot of this back with a saner China policy.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not so fast.</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘Some American officials, worried Mr. Trump will lose, are also trying to engineer irreversible changes, according to people familiar with the thinking,’ reports the NYT.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This gives rise</strong> to an important question:’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can&nbsp;</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">the Trump administration</strong> lock in foreign policy shifts?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The answer</strong> is yes and no.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With China,</strong> the Hawks can continue to hit China everyway they can, creating more mistrust on the China side and maybe provoking China into irreparable actions.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More generally,</strong> they can continue to upend relations with the allies the Biden camp would need for the walk-back.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, ‘The real constraint</strong> for an incoming Biden administration would not be the Trump administration’s actions, but the<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/28/meet-new-bipartisan-consensus-china-just-wrong-old-bipartisan-consensus-china/?itid=lk_inline_manual_20" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;new Washington consensus on China</a>,’ says Daniel Denzer of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Biden</strong> to execute a smarter pivot on China, he would have to make sure that a hawkish Congress would not hamper any policy shifts.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden’s ability to manage</strong> Democrats in Congress (as well as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/democrats-are-allowing-trump-frame-debate-china/614614/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=share" rel="nofollow">the party platform</a>) will be an important variable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In other words,</strong> executives and investors will likely face as much uncertainly – and risk - after the election as they do now.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">pity the poor fool </strong>who has to make decisions today.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Now, It's About Ideologies</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/990sy0?track_p_id=5hquEC6TDG7q_OJuY5Fpie%40" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/990sy0?track_p_id=4kdeT6TDG7q_r4faZD5hP5N" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The US-China rift is now about values'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/990sy0?track_p_id=65ySTyY6TDG7q_5CasOwOum" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/UqTmp2qsKg78xl1T5OyY8Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/990sy0?track_p_id=06TDG7q_KTnnLSFmYBDtrcc" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The US-China rift is now about values&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Editorial Board</strong> | Financial Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until now, talk of a repeat of the cold war has seemed over the top.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington’s complaint about China</strong> has expanded from its trade practices (which animated Mr Trump upon his election in 2016) to its authoritarian mode of government.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mike Pompeo,</strong> the secretary of state, calls the rival superpower a menace to the “free world”.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such language</strong> will take many readers back to the cold war.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until now,</strong> talk of a repeat of that conflict has seemed over the top.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America and the Soviet Union</strong> fell out over rather more than a current-account imbalance, after all, or even a technological race.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was a clash</strong> of incompatible ideologies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Each side</strong> wanted to maximise the share of the world that subscribed to its model, or at least remained nonaligned.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US and China are not there yet,</strong> but the direction of travel is unmistakable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their squabbles</strong> are much wider ranging than at the start of the Trump administration, and touch on values as much as material interests.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Pompeo’s philosophical objection</strong> to the Chinese way of rule also implies a conflict that is open-ended and intractable.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As nasty as trade wars</strong> are, differences can be split and accommodations arrived at.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First principles</strong> are not so amenable to compromise.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the US and China</strong> come to see each other’s systems as inherently wrong, it is not clear what there is to discuss.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is no ideological equivalent</strong> of a Phase One agreement.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US-Soviet schism</strong> only ended when one side collapsed entirely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Because </strong>it was concluded bloodlessly, and in the west’s favour, that half-century showdown is sometimes romanticised now.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the cold war</strong> often turned hot: in Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan and elsewhere.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also caused</strong> two human generations to live under nuclear dread.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The stakes</strong> of another ideological confrontation should not be lost on either the US or China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How strange to think that the tariff wars</strong> of recent years might come to seem like the good old days.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Pompeo's China Speech: Two Views</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6I6O9I?track_p_id=bYWwXo6Y6mVn5DVZGg_iWCB" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6I6O9I?track_p_id=dq2F5RTTyd4Xs65DVZGg_sW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Pompeo’s speech opens a bold new chapter in U.S.-China relations'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/cmsinlYqf76wBzGI7jYuYzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6I6O9I?track_p_id=aZa3YaFgSUB5DVZGg_ake1c" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/H0Or_KCKMHpkulK0zNKgoki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6I6O9I?track_p_id=9HSPlYlQHh5DVZGg_P2X2YM" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Pompeo’s speech opens a bold new chapter in U.S.-China relations</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hugh Hewitt</strong> | President, Richard Nixon Foundation</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo announced a bold new chapter in the United States’ relationship with the People’s Republic of China.'</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong>Secretary Pompeo’s full speech, <a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/">'Communist China and the Free World’s Future'</a> – a barnburner.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Distrust and verify.” ’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is the startling line</strong> from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/" rel="nofollow">speech&nbsp;</a>about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Thursday that will long resonate within national security circles of administrations of both parties.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “President [Ronald] Reagan</strong> said that he dealt with the Soviet Union on the basis of ‘trust but verify.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “When it comes to CCP,</strong> I say we must distrust and verify.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo </strong>had just laid a wreath at the gravesite of Richard M. Nixon after touring the museum and library that honors the former president.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Then, </strong>he spoke '<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/politics/pompeo-china-nixon-library-speech/index.html" rel="nofollow">to a few hundred socially distanced guests</a>&nbsp;near Nixon’s boyhood home.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo announced</strong> a bold new chapter in the United States’ relationship with the People’s Republic of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Almost 50 years after Nixon</strong> dispatched his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, on a secret mission to Beijing, Pompeo brought down the curtain on the blind hope that China would simply evolve into a western-style democracy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This isn’t about containment,”</strong> Pompeo declared on Thursday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Don’t buy that.</strong> It’s about a complex new challenge that we’ve never faced before. The U.S.S.R. was closed off from the free world. Communist China is already within our borders.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There was an urgency</strong> to Pompeo’s message:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Securing our freedoms</strong> from the Chinese Communist Party is the mission of our time, and America is perfectly positioned to lead it because our founding principles give us that opportunity.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo warned bluntly</strong> that this is not just a mirage, but a trap.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We must admit a hard truth</strong> that should guide us in the years and decades to come, that if we want to have a free 21st century, and not the Chinese century of which Xi Jinping dreams, the old paradigm of blind engagement with China simply won’t get it done.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo</strong> then called for an extended era of relentless, unsparing candor about the People’s Republic of China in the hope of transforming that communist country. Pompeo repeated that the CCP remains a completely communist regime.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I believe</strong> it is fair to say that this was a speech that will be seen as pivotal by foreign policy historians for years to come.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a speech</strong> that ought to be read by every American and especially by every American CEO.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leaders of both parties</strong> should applaud and embrace this commitment to candor.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Companies and industries </strong>that cower from this candor should not be allowed to dodge responsibilities for the human rights abuses they enable.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo </strong>did nothing but speak candidly on Thursday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The time for candor </strong>by everyone else about every aspect of the CCP is at hand.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zScGe?track_p_id=08PhyqE_YLNMP6%40r3Q6mAN3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zScGe?track_p_id=2vu8PhyqE_EL4lRdZgLXiza" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'What Mike Pompeo doesn’t understand about China, Richard Nixon and U.S. foreign policy'&nbsp;&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zScGe?track_p_id=8nAWoxeWG8PhyqE_jqCwMDi" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YgIhosG0bJpasZEPhlwLZEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zScGe?track_p_id=8h6cWwyFz8PhyqE_32AGii4" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'What Mike Pompeo doesn’t understand about China, Richard Nixon and U.S. foreign policy'&nbsp;&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard Haass</strong> | President, Council on Foreign Relations</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo also sought to commit the United States to a path that is bound to fail.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong>Secretary Pompeo’s full speech, <a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/">'Communist China and the Free World’s Future'</a> – a barnburner.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Secretary of State Mike Pompeo</strong> delivered<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/at-nixon-library-pompeo-declares-china-engagement-a-failure/2020/07/23/c4b073f2-cd29-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_3" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;a blistering speech about China</a>&nbsp;on Thursday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem</strong> was not simply that the nation’s chief diplomat was decidedly undiplomatic.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Worse was his misrepresentation</strong> of history and his failure to suggest a coherent or viable path forward for managing a relationship that more than any other will define this era.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The secretary</strong> asked what Americans have to show for 50 years of “blind engagement” and said the answer was little or nothing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He instead erected a straw man: </strong>U.S. policy failed, he said, because China did not evolve into a democracy when,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘in fact, </strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/nixons-great-decision-on-china-40-years-later/2012/02/10/gIQAtFh34Q_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_5" rel="nofollow">the purpose of the policy developed by Richard M. Nixon and Henry Kissinger</a>&nbsp;was to use China as a counterweight to the Soviet Union and shape China’s foreign policy, not its internal nature.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What’s more,</strong> their efforts largely&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">succeeded</em>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In cementing China’s split</strong> from the Soviet Union, the United States gained leverage that contributed to the Cold War ending when and how it did.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo also sought to commit</strong> the United States to a path that is bound to fail.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not within our power</strong> to determine China’s future, much less transform it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That </strong>— ‘including the role of the Chinese Communist Party — will be for the Chinese people and their leaders to determine.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What the United States</strong> can and should try to do is shape China’s choices, to bring about a China that acts with a degree of restraint at home and abroad and that works with us to deal with regional challenges, such as North Korea and Afghanistan, and global challenges, such as nonproliferation and climate change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfortunately,</strong> the Trump administration is undermining prospects for moderating China’s behavior.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Locking In Trump's Hardline China Policy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5pQu0m?track_p_id=4O4KX6VPeNq_ASuhQxM4DWS" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5pQu0m?track_p_id=06VPeNq_Zhjl1X2zGfmgW53" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China: Trump’s Hardliners Are in Charge'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5pQu0m?track_p_id=8Gbg4k4lx6VPeNq_myNB2hF" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/OKGere-yGIUJQSfAayuhtUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5pQu0m?track_p_id=9QPVwVFRxO6VPeNq_px3B5E" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China: Trump’s Hardliners Are in Charge'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the Oval Office offering little restraint, Pompeo’s team has orchestrated an unprecedented roll-out of attacks on Beijing, calling on every senior official in the executive branch to join the fray.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Donald Trump</strong> spent the first three years of his presidency balancing the demands of&nbsp;hardliners who wanted a crackdown on China against his own desire to pursue a trade deal and cultivate a stronger relationship with Xi Jinping.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Eager to blame China</strong> for the Covid-19 pandemic and fed up with what U.S. officials call a history of espionage and intellectual-property theft, Trump has allowed a small group of advisers led by Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to push U.S. policy toward its most antagonistic in decades.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo’s team,</strong> along with Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger, are the key architects of the change.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the Oval Office</strong> offering little restraint, Pompeo’s team has orchestrated an unprecedented roll-out of attacks on Beijing, calling on every senior official in the executive branch to join the fray.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That has included speeches</strong> by National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, FBI director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Bill Barr, who lambasted Hollywood and companies such as Apple Inc. for succumbing to China’s will.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pompeo</strong> has even given more latitude to his spokeswoman, Morgan Ortagus, to call out China in unusually harsh terms, as she did last year in referring to the country’s “thuggish regime.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to one person</strong> familiar with internal discussions, Pompeo and his in-house advisers have come to conclude that a capitalist, democratic U.S. and a Communist, unelected leadership in China are fundamentally at odds and cannot coexist.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “America is engaging</strong> in a response to Chinese Communist Party and aggression in a way that America has not done for the past 20 years,” Pompeo said on June 19.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We responded to their military,</strong> use of military force, by moving back. We responded to their use of diplomatic coercion via retreating." ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Donald Trump</strong> is not going to permit that, and we made that clear.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93uNfs?track_p_id=9CPSk63%40bT8umERC_Kftcjg" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93uNfs?track_p_id=83noyQVbc8umERC_r1kGyIV" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Can the Trump administration lock in its foreign policy?'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93uNfs?track_p_id=6jItwVP8umERC_uvk3bqriG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/1MTNbninUdix_nmHTWx_n0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93uNfs?track_p_id=8rRPLqdD38umERC_5AHJNcf" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Can the Trump administration lock in its foreign policy?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Daniel W. Drezner |</strong> Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy&nbsp;</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This gives rise to an important question:&nbsp;</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">Can</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;the Trump administration lock in foreign policy shifts?’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Surveying the diplomatic carnage,</strong> multiple observers have proffered a similar explanation:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump’s foreign policy team,</strong> aware that the odds of a second term&nbsp;<a href="https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president" rel="nofollow">do not look good</a>, are trying to exploit the time they have left in office.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In The Monkey Cage,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/23/four-things-know-about-us-decision-close-chinese-consulate-houston/?itid=lk_inline_manual_13" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Jessica Chen Weiss and Elizabeth N. Saunders</a>&nbsp;speculated that “hawks within the administration are directing these moves, perhaps because they see a closing window of opportunity to accelerate the decoupling in U.S.-China relations before a prospective Biden ‘reset.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The New York Times’s&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/asia/us-china-trump-xi.html" rel="nofollow">Edward Wong and Steven Lee Myers</a>&nbsp;offer a similar explanation: “Some American officials, worried Mr. Trump will lose, are also trying to engineer irreversible changes, according to people familiar with the thinking.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This gives rise</strong> to an important question:’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can&nbsp;</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">the Trump administration</strong> lock in foreign policy shifts?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> is not the only concern here —&nbsp;<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-biden-us-election-2020-a9638371.html" rel="nofollow">others worry&nbsp;</a>that the Trump team is trying something similar with Iran.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Presidents can lock in foreign policy shifts,</strong> but traditionally that has happened through ratified, negotiated deals.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is a problem for Trump:</strong> Beyond his renegotiation of NAFTA, most of his foreign policy actions have been destructive rather than creative.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Biden administration</strong> should be able to reverse course on a lot of this.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan,</strong> two advisers for Joe Biden, wrote&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/competition-with-china-without-catastrophe" rel="nofollow">one of the better Foreign Affairs essays</a> I have read in recent years, arguing for a new approach to China that seems … let’s say “saner” than the current administration’s approach.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This suggests</strong> that change is possible under a Biden administration.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The real constraint</strong> for an incoming Biden administration would not be the Trump administration’s actions, but the<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/28/meet-new-bipartisan-consensus-china-just-wrong-old-bipartisan-consensus-china/?itid=lk_inline_manual_20" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;new Washington consensus on China</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Biden</strong> to execute a smarter pivot on China, he would have to make sure that a hawkish Congress would not hamper any policy shifts.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden’s ability to manage</strong> Democrats in Congress (as well as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/democrats-are-allowing-trump-frame-debate-china/614614/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=share" rel="nofollow">the party platform</a>) will be an important variable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Paradoxically,</strong> for a Biden administration to persuade China to adopt a less confrontational approach, it would need to repair the carnage wreaked by the Trump administration’s “America First” approach toward allies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The more that Beijing views</strong> Biden as the leader of a large coalition and less like a unilateralist, the more likely it will be prepared to parley.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Trump</strong> is really trying to sabotage his successor’s standing in the world, he’ll do it not only by promoting a new Cold War with China, but also by further corroding U.S. alliances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That,</strong> far more than confrontation with China, is what will keep me uneasy for the next six months.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. 'People of China unite. You have nothing to lose but your chains!'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LO848?track_p_id=9b2xpifotV56klmY_K4sIlh" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LO848?track_p_id=1t56klmY_QefykUAER4IWhD" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Mike Pompeo Urges Chinese People to Change Communist Party</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/TnlPmoZPUBXoo-sMuxdcXzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LO848?track_p_id=81Dj3FYif56klmY_XjDWodT" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TfTNVv4rc3T2cZU_AgIiJEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LO848?track_p_id=aJGvqdy2ORY56klmY_VCLwb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Mike Pompeo Urges Chinese People to Change Communist Party</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. “must also engage and empower the Chinese people.”’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Secretary of State Mike Pompeo</strong> called on the Chinese people to alter the ruling Communist Party’s direction in a speech explaining the Trump administration’s full-throttle response to an assertive China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leader Xi Jinping</strong> is a “true believer in a bankrupt, totalitarian ideology,” Mr. Pompeo said.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He stopped shy</strong> of explicitly calling for regime change, urging allied countries and the people of China to work with the U.S. to change the Communist Party’s behavior.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Communist Party</strong> “fears the Chinese people’s honest opinions more than any foe,” Mr. Pompeo said in a speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda, Calif.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.</strong> “must also engage and empower the Chinese people,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7T7yPQ?track_p_id=7B%405WdcG7L8Dh0_%40MaabjmL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/RVuD7R-LXQVR4hBMTSFgRUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7T7yPQ?track_p_id=2nl7L8Dh0_qaIehd4hMqrQm" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Understanding CCP Resilience: Surveying Chinese Public Opinion Through Time'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/z7tr_RpThRLz9e17jnYCJzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;">Tony Saich</h1></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7T7yPQ?track_p_id=7ldf36CD7L8Dh0_oGvI2hUS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Understanding CCP Resilience: Surveying Chinese Public Opinion Through Time'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Harvard Kennedy School</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Edward Cunningham, Tony Saich, &amp; Jessie Turiel</strong> | Harvard Kennedy School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since 2003, Chinese citizen satisfaction with government has increased virtually across the board.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our survey contains</strong> data from eight separate waves between 2003 and 2016, and records face-to-face interview responses from more than 31,000 individuals in both urban and rural settings.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As such,</strong> it represents the longest-running independent effort to track citizen approval with all four levels of the Chinese government across time (ranging from the township, to the county, to the provincial, and finally the central government).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While no single survey</strong> can adequately address all aspects of satisfaction levels in China, this brief identifies two important yet contrasting findings.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, since 2003,</strong> Chinese citizen satisfaction with government has increased virtually across the board.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From the impact</strong> of broad national policies to the conduct of local town officials, Chinese citizens rate the government as more capable and effective than ever before.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Interestingly,</strong> more marginalized groups in poorer, inland regions are comparatively more likely to report increases in satisfaction, casting doubt that China is sitting on a looming “social volcano.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second,</strong> the attitudes of Chinese citizens appear to respond (both positively and negatively) to real changes in their material well-being, which suggests that such support could be undermined by the twin challenges of declining economic growth and a deteriorating natural environment.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the onset of Covid-19</strong> and the economic damage and social dislocation that it caused, the survey reveals that the CCP cannot take the political support of its people for granted.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although state censorship and propaganda</strong> are widespread, our survey reveals that citizen perceptions of governmental performance respond most to real, measurable changes in individuals’ material well-being.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Satisfaction and support</strong> must be consistently reinforced.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Chinese leaders at all levels,</strong> this is a double-edged sword.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Citizens </strong>who have grown accustomed to increases in living standards and service provision will expect such improvements to continue, and citizens who praise government officials for effective policies may blame them when policy failures affect them or their family members directly.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While our survey</strong> reinforces the narrative of CCP resilience, our data also point to specific areas in which citizen satisfaction could decline in today’s era of slowing economic growth and continued environmental degradation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7vimiO?track_p_id=bOw1tV6Y22zl6u6khS_s3Xl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/RVuD7R-LXQVR4hBMTSFgRUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7vimiO?track_p_id=4Doin6u6khS_ReYG3imuk5H" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Counterintuitive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7vimiO?track_p_id=4wsx26u6khS_yQwzhiVBMOu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Counterintuitive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Harvard Kennedy School</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Edward Cunningham, Tony Saich, &amp; Jessie Turiel</strong> | Harvard Kennedy School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the CCP prepares to celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding, the Party appears to be as strong as ever. A deeper resilience is founded on popular support for regime policy.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Regime theory</strong> has long argued that authoritarian systems are inherently unstable because of their dependence on coercion, over-centralization of decision making, and the privileging of personal over institutional power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over time,</strong> these inefficiencies tend to weaken the legitimacy of the ruling government, leading to generalized unrest and citizen dissatisfaction.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China,</strong> President and General Secretary of the CCP, Xi Jinping, appears determined to test this theory.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since assuming power </strong>in late 2012, he has undermined the foundation of what many observers argued was the driving force of CCP resilience – deepening institutionalization.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reversing the trends</strong> initiated by his predecessors, Xi removed emerging norms culminating in ending presidential term limits.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reforms of the cadre system</strong> designed to strengthen meritocracy have been undermined by centralization and the imposition of greater ideological conformity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> by deploying and heading key leading work groups, Xi effectively sidelined functional and professional institutions of party and state.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nevertheless,</strong> as the CCP prepares to celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding, the Party appears to be as strong as ever.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A deeper resilience</strong> is founded on popular support for regime policy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, an intriguing question</strong> is whether, given Xi Jinping’s increasingly centralized and intrusive style of governance and the erosion of institutionalization, is there a danger that the CCP might lose legitimacy in the eyes of its people?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. A Better China Strategy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8e4bmy?track_p_id=betN5%40SQYqWf7SWcDm_CFbS" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8e4bmy?track_p_id=2EL7SWcDm_oKqhL6xkjZw6j" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Senate Republicans’ China Policy Is Better Than Trump’s'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/YG7tqogi5TeZxzT_F8vyxjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8e4bmy?track_p_id=eBmZxRULLHN3iMD7SWcDm_u" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/kM1GFiRcPi54rY7tegaqO0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8e4bmy?track_p_id=7sm%40k2ky7SWcDm_tCCoNaZX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Senate Republicans’ China Policy Is Better Than Trump’s&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hal Brands</strong> | School of Advanced International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Congress is showing the real leadership in policy toward China today.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has set a pattern of breathing fire toward Beijing but failing to assemble a strategy as encompassing as the threat China poses.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So it has fallen to the legislative branch</strong> to build a more competitive policy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With new legislation</strong> “The Strengthening Trade, Regional Alliances, Technology, and Economic and Geopolitical Initiatives Concerning China Act,” one of those bills with a ghastly name that produces a nifty acronym [STRATEGIC], four Senate Republicans are taking the right approach.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Strategic&nbsp;Act</strong> seeks, implicitly, to address several critical flaws that have kept the administration from competently practicing its own competition policy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Aspects of the Strategic Act</strong> — such as its call for a more united economic front —&nbsp;<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/team-bidens-policies-on-china-and-taiwan/" rel="nofollow">overlap&nbsp;</a>fairly well with Biden’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-12/biden-s-foreign-policy-goal-is-to-mend-trump-s-damage?sref=nmVx3tQ5" rel="nofollow">platform</a>&nbsp;and dovetail with ideas that U.S. allies have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/825870b5-99a3-4b45-9fb3-1baa7772f011" rel="nofollow">pushing</a>&nbsp;for years.'&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is fitting that the Strategic Act</strong> was introduced the same week that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave a high-profile&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">speech</a>&nbsp;on U.S.-China relations. Pompeo grabbed the headlines by declaring, rightly, that the root of the problem is the nature of the Chinese regime.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But his speech</strong> also showcased the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/pompeos-surreal-speech-on-china/614596/" rel="nofollow">pathologies</a>— pointless insults lobbed at American allies, insistence that the free world follow Washington’s lead even as Trump divides democracies — that have left the administration with little to show for three years of “competition.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Strategic Act</strong> got much less press than Pompeo’s speech did, but it offers a more detailed, constructive agenda for action.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first</strong> of these is strategic loneliness.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most confounding aspect</strong> of Trump’s diplomacy has been his penchant for fracturing the democratic world, even as he engages in a competition that America can win only with democratic solidarity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The overarching goal</strong> of the Strategic&nbsp;Act is to create a better basis for multilateral balancing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. would lead a “tech coalition”</strong> to thwart China’s bid for technological dominance, help allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region develop or acquire the military capabilities they need to hold Beijing at bay, and pursue deeper economic cooperation — rather than trade wars — with other countries that are concerned about Chinese predation and coercion.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second,</strong> the bill seeks to improve Trump’s clumsy approach to the U.S.-China economic relationship.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This approach</strong> has been the strategic equivalent of a meat cleaver, featuring the use of tariffs as an all-purpose tool of economic statecraft along with meaningless&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-05-14/trump-threatens-to-cut-off-relationship-with-china-claims-coronavirus-proved-trump-was-right" rel="nofollow">threats&nbsp;</a>to “cut off” the relationship altogether. The Strategic Act suggests trying a scalpel.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would require stricter scrutiny</strong> of Chinese gifts to American universities, the involvement of U.S. corporations in Beijing’s dystopian social credit system, and the finances and operations of Chinese corporations using U.S. capital markets.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would authorize the State Department</strong> to work with consultants to help American corporations move their operations out of China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most critically,</strong> it calls for a multilateral approach to setting export control standards, similar to the framework the U.S. and its allies developed for dealing with the Communist world during the Cold War.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Third,</strong> there is the administration’s capricious approach to international organizations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s State Department</strong> has intermittently&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/us-diplomats-scored-a-quiet-but-important-win-against-china/2020/03/10/64dd0fdc-62fb-11ea-845d-e35b0234b136_story.html" rel="nofollow">blocked&nbsp;</a>China from grabbing the leadership of obscure but important institutions such as the World International Property Organization — even as Trump himself has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-31/china-s-influence-operation-goes-beyond-who-taiwan-and-covid-19?sref=nmVx3tQ5" rel="nofollow">opened doors</a>&nbsp;for Beijing by quitting or handicapping the United Nations Human Rights Council, the World Health Organization and other international bodies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This bill calls</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">for a new State Department “UN Integrity Office”</strong> that would lead the fight for influence in the organizations that make global rules.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also calls for the U.S.</strong> to work within the World Trade Organization to address unfair Chinese trade practices, in contrast with Trump’s campaign — which has alienated American friends — to render that organization irrelevant.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Fourth, the Strategic Act</strong> confronts the problems of bureaucratic disarray and neglect of non-military tools.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a cliché</strong> to call the Trump administration undisciplined, but the reality is that strategy works only when the bureaucracy is capable and relatively unified.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This measure</strong> would require every U.S. department and agency to make a senior official responsible for coordinating competition with Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would also invest</strong> in the diplomatic, intelligence and development expertise the government needs to keep pace.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally, the legislation</strong> addresses a troubling trend toward competition without guardrails.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region</strong> initially welcomed a harder U.S. policy toward China, but have since been alarmed by the near-total&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-trade/2020/05/21/coronavirus-cuts-off-us-china-back-channels-787796" rel="nofollow">breakdown&nbsp;</a>of meaningful diplomacy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Precisely</strong> because the struggle between the U.S. and China will be so intense, it is critical to find ways to limit that rivalry.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A U.S.-China Strategic Nuclear Dialogue </strong>that would reduce the risks of misperception and miscalculation would be a useful counterpart to the intense military modernization that the U.S. will need in order to maintain a favorable balance of power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">6. A Look Back: Mao &amp; Nixon</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ZqJmK?track_p_id=07EyGlC_aBWx34qLxAwRcMX" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/QLSVUPnsInpGj0GCTCtxYUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ZqJmK?track_p_id=35yo7EyGlC_ojaooZsMEw5o" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon have a chat, February 21, 1972&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/W00bgwWmDfIXrQV-w-yFJzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ZqJmK?track_p_id=5KD6dj7EyGlC_C3pw3L6dkc" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/QLSVUPnsInpGj0GCTCtxYUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ZqJmK?track_p_id=2Ir7EyGlC_Ydu6rPYAPVHtL" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Mao Zedong meets Richard Nixon, February 21, 1972&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">USC US-China Institute&nbsp;</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Nixon: ‘The Chairman can be sure that whatever we discuss, nothing goes beyond the room.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Declassified transcript of the Beijing meeting between China's leader and America's. It took place in Chairman Mao's living quarters.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">February 21, 1972</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Nixon:</strong> ‘The Chairman can be sure that whatever we discuss, or whatever I and the Prime Minister discuss, nothing goes beyond the room.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is the only way</strong> to have conversations at the highest level.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chairman Mao:</strong> ‘That’s good.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Nixon:</strong> ‘For example, Mr. Chairman, it is interesting to note that most nations would approve of this meeting, but the Soviets disapprove, the Japanese have doubts which they express, and the Indians disapprove.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So we must examine why,</strong> and determine how our policies should develop to deal with the whole world, as well as the immediate problems such as Korea, Vietnam, and of course, Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chairman Mao:</strong> ‘Yes, I agree.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Nixon:</strong> ‘We, for example, must ask ourselves—again in the confines of this room—why the Soviets have more forces on the border facing you than on the border facing Western Europe.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We must ask ourselves,</strong> what is the future of Japan? Is it better—here I know we have disagreements—is it better for Japan to be neutral, totally defenseless, or it is [sic] better for a time for Japan to have some relations with the United States?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The point being</strong>—I am talking now in the realm of philosophy—in international relations there are no good choices.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One thing is sure</strong>—we can leave no vacuums, because they can be filled.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Prime Minister,</strong> for example, has pointed out that the United States reaches out its hands and that the Soviet Union reaches out its hands.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The question</strong> is which danger the People’s Republic faces, whether it is the danger of American aggression or Soviet aggression.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are hard questions,</strong> but we have to discuss them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chairman Mao:</strong> At the present time, the question of aggression from the United States or aggression from China is relatively small.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jul 25, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4wRRo0?track_p_id=dLEcbtmjLjjD6R6loJOI_LM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4wRRo0?track_p_id=2Hr6loJOI_Pl5KbLJYbd1Rl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Two Election Campaigns</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4wRRo0?track_p_id=dBVfCqHlMOZtIX6loJOI_A5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Two Campaigns</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong>&nbsp;</h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s consulate</strong> in Houston was a ‘hotbed of spies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So is every consulate and embassy</strong> of every major country.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If we shut them down</strong> for harboring spies, Embassy Row in D.C. would be decimated.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What struck me</strong> about the U.S. closing the Houston consulate is how little was made of it.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The media</strong> only learned about it when firetrucks arrived after reports of a fire.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Turned out</strong> the Chinese staff was burning documents in the courtyard in advance of vacating.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the midst</strong> of Trump’s get tough on China election strategy, you would have thought the administration would have done the diplomatic equivalent of a perp walk for several days.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All of which leads</strong> me to feel that the Chinese might have been conducting intelligence and influence so far beyond the norm that the U.S. had to take action.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said, </strong>the norm is a pretty high bar.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Just as interesting</strong> was the Chinese decision to close the U.S. consulate in Chengdu.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hong Kong</strong> was the preferred choice in a poll of the Chinese people (who have been given a steady flow of claims that the U.S. caused the unrest there from that consulate – which of course may be true).</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But China instead chose Chengdu, </strong>the least crucial of the U.S. consulates in China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each side lost a ‘hotbed of spies,’</strong> but China’s loss was a lot bigger.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In any case,</strong> this is representative of the current phase in the U.S.-China relationship.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S.</strong> has recently accelerated its punishments.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And China</strong> has meekly responded, hoping to stop the downward spiral.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Driving this pattern</strong> are two election campaigns:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Donald Trump</strong> for President of the United States in 2020, and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi Jinping</strong> for the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For all the reasons</strong> presented in U.S. media, Mr. Trump sees bashing China again as a winning election strategy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi</strong> is playing to a different base.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">His re-election</strong> depends on the approval of the Chinese Communist Party elite.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If the elites see him</strong> as the guy who ‘lost the U.S.’, his has chances quickly dim.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So even though </strong>he clearly not making friends with U.S. allies, he is doing his best not to put China’s relationship with the U.S. further in the dumper.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this issue </strong>is a look at these two campaigns and the activities around them:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. My Take: The Two Election Campaigns Collide</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here I try to weave together</strong> the disparate threads on the issue to explain how the two campaigns are playing off each other.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">One thing for sure:</strong> Whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden is elected in November, Mr. Xi will have to make a careful calibration between being assertive enough to stir nationalistic fervor among the Chinese citizenry and not so assertive that he completely trashes China’s relationship with America.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If he fails, </strong>the U.S winner may be dealing with a different Chinese leader in 2022.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. “Houston, we have a problem.”</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Senator Marco Rubio</strong> backs the closing of the Chinese consulate in Houston: ‘Sometimes a hammer is required to send a message.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Representing the opposing view,</strong> The Washington Post: 'Shutting down the Chinese consulate in Houston: A case study in Trump's counterproductivity.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We need to know</strong> a lot more before we can decide if either or both are right.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘China Isn't Taking the Bait’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In recent weeks, </strong>the Trump administration has ramped up punishing China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Many contend</strong> that this is just part of his election strategy. I agree.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it also shows</strong> that he has given the Hawks in his administration pretty free rein.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">None of these tactics,</strong> however, indicate a strategy or even an outcome that the Hawks are aiming for.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And as Trivium China</strong> points out, China isn’t taking the bait.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Choosing instead</strong> to make muted responses to staunch the deterioration of the relationship.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. The Other Election Campaign</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Xi’s campaign</strong> to remain in power at the 20th Party Congress has definitely started,” says Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“There is very likely</strong> some real&nbsp;resistance under the surface in the system, and 2022 will be very interesting.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think </strong>it’s a slam dunk.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not so fast. “Xi’s position</strong> is much more secure than any time before largely because of his success, from the Chinese perspective, in containing coronavirus,” says Cheng Li, director of the&nbsp;Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi’s election</strong> is in 2022, an eternity in politics everywhere.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stay tuned.</strong></li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Two Campaigns</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yjFkO?track_p_id=7uXc4JeX74TRC2_po%40moAM6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yjFkO?track_p_id=dIdWcsy6sCj55q74TRC2_%40X" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">My Take: The Two Election Campaigns Collide</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lUMCGN-bu1uqhTvBtF17STl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yjFkO?track_p_id=dCCYZwfQpJGbC174TRC2_a%40" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">My Take: The Two Election Campaigns Collide</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell </strong>| CHINADebate</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We are in the midst of two election campaigns: Donald Trump for President of the United States in 2020, and Xi Jinping for the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022.</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We are in the midst </strong>of two election campaigns that are driving U.S.-China relations:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Donald Trump</strong> for President of the United States in 2020, and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi Jinping</strong> for General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Both</strong> are playing to their bases.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For Mr. Trump</strong> that base is made up of the same voters who elected him in 2016.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For Mr. Xi,</strong> it’s complicated. To be elected to a third term (after he eliminated the two-term limit), Mr. Xi must appeal to two constituencies.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">First,</strong> the Party leaders who could actually give him a third term.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Second,</strong> the people of China who, even though they don’t have a vote, have great influence – the Party leaders, bent on maintaining the supremacy of the CCP, won’t allow a widely unpopular candidate to ascend to or stay in office.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi </strong>are portraying themselves as nationalist strongmen.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Trump,</strong> tough on China to protect the U.S.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi,</strong> tough on just about every country that hinders his realization of the ‘China Dream,’ or ‘hurts the feelings of the Chinese people’ – every country except the U.S.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Xi, to bolster his popularity,</strong> briefly shaken by early missteps in handling the coronavirus, has been increasingly assertive in Hong Kong, the Himalayas, and the South China Sea, and with countries like Australia and the UK. And more.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">These acts,</strong> shaped by the state-controlled media, have spurred nationalistic pride and fervor among one of his bases, the Chinese people. And increased his popularity among them</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But to bolster his appeal</strong> to the Party elders, he has to show a steady hand.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is more difficult</strong> because he has already created enemies within China through his campaigns to silence, intimidate, or eliminate opposition, and through other actions and policies that some of the elite just don’t agree with.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">At the top of the list</strong> is his handling of the U.S.-China relationship.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What Mr. Xi</strong> no doubt especially wants to avoid is a deep inquiry into the question: Who lost the U.S.?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because</strong> the conclusion of the Party elite could well be, him.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The challenge</strong> for Mr. Xi has been Donald Trump.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Trump ran and won, </strong>in part, on a platform of getting tough on China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And </strong>he’s bungled it.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But bungled or not,</strong> Trump has caused political and popular opinion to coalesce against China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Part of the bungling came from,</strong> for lack of better definitions, the China Doves and China Hawks in his administration and his inability to consistently choose between them.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now,</strong> with his chances of re-election dimming, Mr. Trump seems to have turned China policy over to the Hawks.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Politico</strong> points out:&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In January,</strong> President Donald Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-ceremony-united-states-mexico-canada-trade-agreement/" rel="nofollow">declared</a>&nbsp;that America’s relationship with China “might be the best it’s been in a long, long time,” praising Chinese President Xi Jinping weeks after inking a first-step trade deal with the country.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Flash forward to July:</strong> Trump has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-says-he-is-not-interested-in-trade-talks-with-china-idUSKCN24F2Q4" rel="nofollow">effectively</a> cut off trade talks,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/world/asia/trump-china-sanctions-uighurs.html" rel="nofollow">sanctioned</a>&nbsp;Chinese officials over their internment of Muslims and encroachment in Hong Kong, revealed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/china-hong-kong-trump-student-visas.html" rel="nofollow">plans</a>&nbsp;to axe visas for some Chinese students in the U.S.,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/us/politics/china-journalists-us-visa-crackdown.html" rel="nofollow">restricted</a>&nbsp;Chinese journalists,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/world/asia/us-china-houston-consulate.html" rel="nofollow">shuttered</a>&nbsp;a Chinese diplomatic compound in Houston and vowed retaliation for Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus after initially praising its efforts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;And here’s the WSJ:</strong> ‘The closure of the consulate comes on the heels of a quad of bellicose speeches from top administration officials, collectively amounting to a declaration of Cold War against China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Robert O’Brien,</strong> the national security adviser, painted China’s leadership&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/chinese-communist-partys-ideology-global-ambitions/" rel="nofollow">as unreconstructed Marxist-Leninists</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The F.B.I. director, Christopher Wray,</strong> spoke of China’s practice in the art of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/speeches/the-threat-posed-by-the-chinese-government-and-the-chinese-communist-party-to-the-economic-and-national-security-of-the-united-states" rel="nofollow">“malign foreign influence.”</a> ’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Attorney General Bill Barr</strong> accused China of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/transcript-attorney-general-barr-s-remarks-china-policy-gerald-r-ford-presidential-museum" rel="nofollow">“economic blitzkrieg.”</a> ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Secretary of State Mike </strong>Pompeo hinted the free world&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/" rel="nofollow">may need a new version of NATO</a>, this one aimed at Beijing instead of Moscow.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is the enduring problem</strong> for Mr. Xi. As the WSJ also points out:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One danger</strong> is that Beijing writes off the new U.S. posture as an election-year gambit by President Trump.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That</strong> would be a mistake.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democrats</strong> have been encouraging or silent as the Administration pushes back against Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new posture reflects</strong> an emerging consensus from blue-collar voters to business and security elites that China has gotten away with too much for too long.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Biden Administration</strong> would inherit the tense situation in the Western Pacific and a large portfolio of counterintelligence and criminal investigations targeting China’s influence in the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Add to this,</strong> Mr. Xi’s ‘recent actions have rallied more countries to the U.S. position on China’s threat to world order.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the U.S.</strong> needs allies in confronting China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For his election campaign,</strong> Mr. Xi’s policies require careful calibration.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To keep popular support</strong> and maintain his strongman persona, he has to stoke his Chinese-citizenry base’s nationalistic passions.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the same actions</strong> that do that also solidify the enmity of the rest of the world, especially the U.S., and raises doubts about Xi's competence among the Party elite who would actually give him a third term.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So far, Mr. Xi</strong> has opted to continue being the tough guy with the rest of the world.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But with the U.S.,</strong> as Trivium China notes, Mr. Xi is not ‘taking the bait.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the past two weeks,</strong> the US has undertaken a notable ramp up in tactical anti-China maneuvering – with Chinese policy toward Hong Kong as the key focal point.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After each new development,</strong> the Chinese side has responded, but these responses have often fallen short of formal retaliation, and even when reactions have been substantive, they have fallen short of a genuine tit-for-tat policy outcome.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing</strong> has more to lose than to gain from a downward spiral in US-China relations – and sees itself as the victim of an aggressive encircling policy by the US administration, while still not fully comprehending the role that its own domestic policy trajectory has had in creating the backlash from the West.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The amount of time</strong> that China will be willing to continue showing restraint is uncertain, although there are underlying drivers that suggest this approach could endure for a while, regardless of US hostility.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Susan Shirk,</strong> chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego<strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>notes:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Xi’s campaign</strong> to remain in power at the 20th Party Congress has definitely started”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“There is very likely</strong> some real&nbsp;resistance under the surface in the system, and 2022 will be very interesting.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think </strong>it’s a slam dunk.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The same</strong> could be said for Mr. Trump.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But how each reacts</strong> to the other’s moves could make all the difference in whether the election campaign of either is successful.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. "Houston, we have a problem."</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5UPoR6?track_p_id=4Uevy5u9ql4_ka4K4Rtr3s6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/M-w0thpS6EyBvp-9TR45aEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5UPoR6?track_p_id=a5PQoLHE3qX5u9ql4_F2Kg3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Sen. Marco Rubio: 'Trump right to shut Chinese consulate in Houston — it was a massive spying operation'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/FsinSztTScxf5ps1r_YVhjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5UPoR6?track_p_id=aI4u3QL1M6k5u9ql4_cY2kW" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/gdP5HVsDU339o82rVb-Sk0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5UPoR6?track_p_id=bzlvD3NXyIGT5u9ql4_mtUr" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Sen. Marco Rubio: Trump right to shut Chinese consulate in Houston — it was a massive spying operation</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fox News</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Senator Marco Rubio</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP is seemingly unable to conduct international relations without spying.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This week smoke billowed</strong> from the courtyard of the Chinese consulate in Houston as employees burned sensitive documents.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Typically,</strong> consulates carry out services such as issuing visas and engaging in cultural exchanges.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)</strong> outpost in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/houston-and-galveston" rel="nofollow">Houston</a> was far from a typical consulate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> the consulate served as a front for the CCP and a central node in the massive spying operation that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/world-regions/china" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">China</a>&nbsp;uses to undermine the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This network</strong> carries out all sorts of espionage — political, defensive, industrial, academic, and commercial — to try to gain a strategic edge over the U.S. by cheating and stealing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s adversaries,</strong> including China and Russia, use their consulates to conduct all sorts of nefarious activities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the CCP,</strong> the Houston consulate served as a base of operations to exploit commercial joint ventures for state purposes and to gain access to advanced technology, proprietary information, and intellectual property in order to advance Beijing’s efforts to undermine U.S. economic and national security.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Critically,</strong> the Houston consulate covered China's activities in seven states, including my home state of Florida.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese diplomats</strong> had been involved in stealing scientific research, as well as facilitating travel to China using falsified paperwork.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The consulate</strong> also had used CCP-controlled community groups to cultivate Texas elites.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And considering this occurred in Houston,</strong> the malign Chinese activity likely involved theft and espionage connected to the U.S. energy and health care sectors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the consular staff members</strong> pack their bags, we must also remember that the Houston consulate was a cog in a much larger system of exploitation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP</strong> is seemingly unable to conduct international relations without spying, especially on the people the party claims as its own, such as Chinese-Americans — wherever they are and in every facet of their lives.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration’s decision</strong> to shut the consulate down is exactly right and sends a strong message to China, Russia and other adversaries that this illegal espionage will no longer be tolerated.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We cannot simply ignore</strong> the prolific increase of Chinese espionage and political influence operations, especially on American soil.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sometimes a hammer</strong> is required to send a message.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94svdA?track_p_id=8VYeBxcao4tdhMM_R1kUYce" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94svdA?track_p_id=6wm3pxE4tdhMM_xfvScP1i5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Shutting down the Chinese consulate in Houston: A case study in Trump's counterproductivity.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/HthS60n8OJJuku2LSqy90Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94svdA?track_p_id=1q4tdhMM_brZFiBiFLYvcfK" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/lu4kFgh2KZS52kQjCNm-2ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94svdA?track_p_id=04tdhMM_HOCwzRX6YM5PZGW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Shutting down the Chinese consulate in Houston: A case study in Trump's counterproductivity.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Editorial Board</strong> | The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump is pursuing a reckless, incoherent and unilateral offensive against Beijing that appears designed to boost his reelection campaign, not manage the complicated challenge posed by the regime of Xi Jinping.'</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘THE UNITED STATES</strong> should be leading democratic nations in resisting China’s tightening totalitarianism and escalating belligerence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead, President Trump</strong> is pursuing a reckless, incoherent and unilateral offensive against Beijing that appears designed to boost his reelection campaign, not manage the complicated challenge posed by the regime of Xi Jinping.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The State Department’s abrupt order&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vows-to-retaliate-after-us-orders-closure-its-consulate-in-houston/2020/07/22/41e5c6ea-cbf1-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_3" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">shutting down the Chinese Consulate in Houston</a>&nbsp;this week is a case study in Mr. Trump’s counterproductivity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In retaliation,</strong> China is shutting down the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. officials</strong> are describing the Houston consulate as a nest of espionage activities, though they have offered no evidence to back that up.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Secretary of State Mike Pompeo</strong> portrayed the closure as sending&nbsp;<a href="https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/pompeo-deliver-speech-china-tensions-escalate-between-2-countries" rel="nofollow">a message</a>: “We are setting out clear expectations for how the Chinese Communist Party is going to behave, and when they don’t, we’re going to take actions that protect the American people, protect our security, our national security, and also protect our economy and jobs.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s good campaign rhetoric</strong> — but closing consulates won’t accomplish those aims.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Chinese hacking and spying</strong> is directed from China [hacking, maybe; spying, no], not Houston.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many of the other measures</strong> Trump has taken, from imposing tariffs on U.S.-China trade to restricting student visas, have damaged the U.S.&nbsp;economy and cost jobs without changing Chinese behavior.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The president</strong> has since come to see greater electoral benefit in blaming Beijing for the spread of covid-19 while portraying opponent Joe Biden as a Chinese puppet.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some of the resulting flurry</strong> of measures are worthy, if long overdue:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under heavy pressure from Congress,</strong> the administration finally imposed sanctions on officials and companies involved in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/20/china-sanctions-uighurs-xinjiang/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9" rel="nofollow">Xinjiang&nbsp;</a>and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-signs-bill-to-punish-china-over-hong-kong-rails-against-biden/2020/07/14/41395e70-c61d-11ea-8ffe-372be8d82298_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_9" rel="nofollow">Hong Kong crackdowns</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet this in no way</strong> represents a cogent strategy for countering Mr. Xi’s ambition to spread China’s model of dictatorship around the world and forcibly silence critics at home and abroad.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That would require coordination with U.S. allies</strong> — such as Germany, South Korea and Japan, which Mr. Trump instead threatens with trade wars or the withdrawal of U.S.&nbsp;troops.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would mean</strong> reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership on trade.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it would require</strong> leaving open channels for diplomacy with Beijing to address issues such as North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and global warming.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'Closing consulates</strong> will achieve none of that.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. ‘China Isn't Taking the Bait’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5gcZ1s?track_p_id=8AKoc6tBK6P1j9a_Y5jB2Nq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/irry7EUsnjxPAzOLxwPDM0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5gcZ1s?track_p_id=brL2v5TtwFHA6P1j9a_BB2V" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump accelerates China punishments in time for reelection'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/ZpxQZkYQGSP7ODw_anYx7Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5gcZ1s?track_p_id=2pX6P1j9a_QrPgBOGvgp5VV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/GBCBp79hjjDGO8AboP_ZmEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5gcZ1s?track_p_id=7Hcdaymq6P1j9a_eQk3M%40OR" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump accelerates China punishments in time for reelection</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Politico</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the last two weeks, the speed and variety of punishments targeting China have accelerated.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In January,</strong> President Donald Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-signing-ceremony-united-states-mexico-canada-trade-agreement/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">declared</a>&nbsp;that America’s relationship with China “might be the best it’s been in a long, long time,” praising Chinese President Xi Jinping weeks after inking a first-step trade deal with the country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Flash forward to July:</strong> Trump has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-says-he-is-not-interested-in-trade-talks-with-china-idUSKCN24F2Q4" rel="nofollow">effectively</a> cut off trade talks,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/world/asia/trump-china-sanctions-uighurs.html" rel="nofollow">sanctioned</a>&nbsp;Chinese officials over their internment of Muslims and encroachment in Hong Kong, revealed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/china-hong-kong-trump-student-visas.html" rel="nofollow">plans</a>&nbsp;to axe visas for some Chinese students in the U.S.,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/us/politics/china-journalists-us-visa-crackdown.html" rel="nofollow">restricted</a>&nbsp;Chinese journalists,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/world/asia/us-china-houston-consulate.html" rel="nofollow">shuttered</a>&nbsp;a Chinese diplomatic compound in Houston and vowed retaliation for Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus after initially praising its efforts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As for Trump and Xi?</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They haven’t spoken</strong> since March.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason</strong> for the dramatic about-face is partly grounded in recent developments — the Hong Kong sanctions, for instance, are tied to a controversial national security law that recently went into effect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Trump</strong> is also eager to appear tough on China heading into his reelection campaign, where he is polling well behind presumptive 2020 rival Joe Biden, who is hammering the president for his past admiration of Xi and recently&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/09/joe-biden-manufacturing-jobs-354936" rel="nofollow">unveiled</a> plans to invest in American manufacturing and combat China’s economic practices.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In response,</strong> Trump’s tough-on-China campaign has picked up pace.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the last two weeks,</strong> his administration has used a variety of methods — press conferences, new legal judgments, numerous op-eds, high-profile speeches, overseas trips — to suddenly hit Beijing over long-standing issues the president often skirted in the past.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And in the last two weeks,</strong> the speed and variety of punishments targeting China has accelerated.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration</strong> vows more action is coming.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But even close allies</strong> of the president warn the Trump administration is only just now crystallizing its China policy, just over 100 days before the November election.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And critics</strong> saying the velocity of action could have a destabilizing impact on U.S. relations with the world’s second-largest economic power, with no apparent strategic gain.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Whether you agree or disagree,</strong> you can glimpse more clearly now an approach from the Trump administration that’s going beyond ad-hoc roundhouses at China,” said Jude Blanchette, a China scholar at Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But what’s the strategy?</strong> What outcome does the Trump administration want?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I don't know, Jude. </strong>These sure look like 'ad-hoc roundhouses' to me.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aEq0?track_p_id=8N41EhUKs57pdra_4J2jHwx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/A7ksJ9vacWg-MZcRwzLMR0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aEq0?track_p_id=cFWQ3w4xhbpUx57pdra_uPh" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China Is Not Taking the Bait'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aEq0?track_p_id=4dx3i57pdra_VuuV2N35KLY" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China Is Not Taking the Bait'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Trivium China</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite what may seem like a volley of back-and-forth moves and a further downward spiral in US-China relations in recent days, to us it looks as though Beijing is – at least for the moment – seeking to dial down bilateral tensions.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In addition </strong>to the points below, I would add that Xi Jinping is campaigning for third term.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Some Party elites</strong> blame him for the deterioration of U.S.-China relations.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So if the question is:</strong> Who lost the U.S.?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi </strong>wants to be sure the answer doesn’t become him.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the past two weeks,</strong> the US has undertaken a notable ramp up in tactical anti-China maneuvering –with Chinese policy toward Hong Kong as the key focal point.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After each new development,</strong> the Chinese side has responded, but these responses have often fallen short of formal retaliation, and even when reactions have been substantive, they have fallen short of a genuine tit-for-tat policy outcome.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Concurrently,</strong> Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng both gave major speeches at the annual China-US Think Tanks Media Forum that articulated a preference for relationship-mending, and spotlighted areas for potential cooperation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The conciliatory speeches</strong> by Wang and Le can perhaps be taken with a grain of salt – long-time China watchers know that words meant for foreign ears are not as important as words spoken in Zhongnanhai or to a Chinese-only audience – but it is important to note that high-level officials still see the practical and political value of stable relations with the US.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus,</strong> despite what may seem like a volley of back-and-forth moves and a further downward spiral in US-China relations in recent days, to us it looks as though Beijing is – at least for the moment – seeking to dial down bilateral tensions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That said,</strong> the chances of this approach succeeding in arresting the deterioration of the relationship seem slim, given that China does not appear to have a willing partner on the US side.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What’s more,</strong> the amount of time that China will be willing to continue showing restraint is also uncertain, although there are underlying drivers that suggest this approach could endure for a while, regardless of US hostility.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing</strong> has more to lose than to gain from a downward spiral in US-China relations – and sees itself as the victim of an aggressive encircling policy by the US administration, while still not fully comprehending the role that its own domestic policy trajectory has had in creating the backlash from the West.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More importantly,</strong> China has its eyes on a different prize besides one-upping the US.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If a drumbeat</strong> of marginal US harassment is the price that China must pay in order to implement iron-fisted control of Hong Kong (and Xinjiang), it will pay that price – as opposed to seeking to impose retaliatory costs on the US.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All signs are pointing south</strong> for the US-China relationship, but China’s recent signaling – along with its fundamental interests – indicate a floor below which hostilities are not likely to fall.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From China’s perspective,</strong> there is limited utility in allowing its relationship with the US to deteriorate beyond a certain point, and despite the Trump administration’s recent ramp-up, the most extreme of China’s nationalist instincts will likely be held in check for now (at least until the US election is complete).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing still needs</strong> investment from US companies, still wants access to US technology, still covets US capital, still needs access to US financial markets (and the US dollar system), and still relies on US consumers to buy its products.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All of this limits</strong> China’s capacity and motivation to institute sweeping counter-sanctions in the face of US aggression.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile, on Hong Kong,</strong> China’s real goal is to run out the clock on US and UK indignation, so it can get down to the business of asserting authority and rebuilding Hong Kong’s socio-political system to its liking.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Engaging in a tit-for-tat</strong> on Hong Kong-related policies abroad offers no benefit in accomplishing that goal, so it will not be surprising if Beijing limits its retaliation for the HKA Act for now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. The Other Election Campaign</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UnAGm?track_p_id=2bl7XLqd4_Dk6EbZxkymzcb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UnAGm?track_p_id=6O42kpY7XLqd4_D3j4VgAQX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Xi’s Campaign to Stay in Power'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/9rqtvcinL1IsLCytZMZvxzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Vote for Xi'</strong></span></h1></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UnAGm?track_p_id=6hxo2x57XLqd4_cSj1WQpbV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Xxki9PfxvO0fXhVOkMBfcUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6UnAGm?track_p_id=33uN7XLqd4_13zP%40txJKVWZ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Xi’s Campaign to Stay in Power'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Xi Jinping’s campaign to remain in power at the 20th Party Congress has definitely started. There is very likely some real&nbsp;resistance&nbsp;under the surface in the system, and 2022 will be very interesting.”</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Less than four months</strong> before the U.S. election, President Donald Trump has made his tough China policy a centerpiece of his campaign to stay in power.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over in Beijing,</strong> President Xi Jinping is similarly preparing for China’s own leadership contest in 2022, when a once-in-five-year gathering is expected to take place to pick the Communist Party’s top leaders and set policy priorities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without democratic elections,</strong> the Communist Party’s roughly 200-member Central Committee nominally elects the party leader and lawmakers pick the president -- titles both held by Xi.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality,</strong> leadership positions are hashed out behind the scenes among various factions, a process that starts several years before the Party Congress and remains largely a black box to outsiders.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “His campaign</strong> to remain in power at the 20th Party Congress has definitely started,” said Susan Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“There is very likely</strong> some real&nbsp;resistance under the surface in the system, and 2022 will be very interesting.”&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think </strong>it’s a slam dunk.”&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Xi knows</strong> that he’s got a lot of enemies, and the enemies are not dissidents,” Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies said.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The enemies</strong> are within the top echelon in the Communist Party.”&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Right now there’s no reason</strong> to think Xi is facing any imminent threats.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the country’s 1.4 billion citizens</strong> don’t get a vote, public sentiment still matters when it comes to how much support Xi can muster from senior party leaders for his indefinite rule.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While his government’s initial handling</strong> of the pandemic generated widespread dissatisfaction, Xi’s subsequent ability to reduce cases and restart economic activity helped mitigate the damage -- and compared positively with the responses of countries like the U.S., where the virus is still running rampant’.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s economy</strong> has also continued to expand despite slower growth rates than during his predecessor’s watch.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Xi’s position</strong> is much more secure than any time before largely because of his success, from the Chinese perspective, in containing coronavirus,” said Cheng Li, director of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/13352Z:US" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Brookings Institution</a>’s John L. Thornton China Center.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We should not</strong> underestimate his capacity and his popularity.”&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But ‘Xi’s consolidation of power</strong> has made him at once more secure and more vulnerable, with any missteps like the initial response to Covid-19 providing an opening for any rivals, said Tsang. On the world stage, he said, Xi’s administration is “picking fights with everybody.” '</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“When you’re running it as a strongman,</strong> you really cannot afford to show any signs of weakness.”&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And this is what</strong> we have with Xi Jinping.”&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6VvYn2?track_p_id=7tOTbxHd8dXyd4_pbRVZ4AI" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6VvYn2?track_p_id=aJBZmZei12L8dXyd4_CB6Bp" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump’s Not the Only One Playing to His Base'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6VvYn2?track_p_id=djdIYwzPqOGacH8dXyd4_r5" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/M5JWwhFnpIofKB7SOCPDsUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6VvYn2?track_p_id=2Db8dXyd4_N4brBXbKkYfLE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump’s Not the Only One Playing to His Base&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s domestic concerns also pose a risk for the world.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese President Xi Jinping</strong> faces a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-23/xi-s-own-campaign-to-stay-in-power-pits-china-against-the-world" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">crucial leadership test</a>&nbsp;in 2022, when he will vie to continue his indefinite rule in a break from his predecessors.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Signs are emerging</strong> that behind-the-scenes jockeying has begun:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This month the Communist Party</strong> announced a new campaign to “thoroughly remove tumors” from the justice system, while also moving to silence critics with the aim of “safeguarding the regime’s security.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even if there’s little sign</strong> of open dissent toward Xi, the actions suggest he’s not taking any chances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The coronavirus pandemic </strong>has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-22/xi-says-china-on-correct-side-of-history-calls-for-innovation" rel="nofollow">battered the economy</a>, the main source of political legitimacy for Xi and the party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s domestic concerns</strong> also pose a risk for the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A crucial pillar</strong> of his support comes from the nationalism stoked by his more assertive foreign policy to stand “tall and firm.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That has sparked fights</strong> with countries from the U.K. and Australia to India and even Kazakhstan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 22, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">Europe is Getting Tougher on China - and Why That's Important</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump</strong> has confronted both China and America’s European allies.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This has skewed</strong> a lot of discussion toward just two issues: the U.S.-China relationship and the U.S.-Europe relationship.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What is often lost,</strong> at least in the U.S. as well as China, is focus on the Europe-China relationship.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yet understanding </strong>that relationship is crucial for two reasons:</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">First, given the size and scope </strong>of EU investment in and trade with China, changes in that relationship can be as consequential to individual industries and the global economy as any taken by the U.S.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If you’re not tracking</strong> the changing EU attitude and approach to China, your analyses are incomplete.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Second, a persistent</strong> – and I believe correct – criticism of the U.S. confrontation with China is that America has gone it alone without enlisting the support of its allies.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Should Joe Biden</strong> be elected president (or should President Trump change strategies in a second term), the U.S. will again seek cooperation with our allies – the EU &amp; European nations, as well as the UK, Japan, Korea, and others – in curbing China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Given the present likelihood </strong>of this change in course, the way we situate China in the world will change. And analyses that misunderstand or ignore how each of these allies deals with China will be flawed.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have been</strong> as guilty as anyone as neglecting the Europe-China relationship.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke,</strong> president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, has long encouraged me to devote more posts to the Europe-China relationship, and for that I thank him.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Part of my reluctance</strong> has been my limited understanding of the complexity of that relationship.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S. speaks</strong> (or at least tries) to speak with one official voice on foreign policy.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The European Union</strong> likewise comes up with foreign policy consensuses among its members that represent the EU's positions.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But each member</strong> also shapes its own foreign policy, which may be at odds with other members and the EU itself.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is the challenge</strong> in understanding Europe’s approaches to China and China’s to Europe.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said,</strong> some broad generalizations can be made.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘European views on China</strong> have hardened over the past several years,’ writes Philippe Le Corre.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This sentiment</strong> is primarily driven by Europe’s increased disillusionment about Beijing’s willingness and ability to deliver on its repeated promises of market reform, as well as a general sense among Europeans that China under Xi is backsliding toward becoming more authoritarian at home and more assertive abroad.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘During the coronavirus crisis,</strong> the EU has increasingly seen China’s propaganda efforts as hostile and aggressive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> China has not made any new friends in Europe since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and, if anything, Beijing has seen its standing on the continent markedly decline.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">recent setbacks </strong>call into question the underlying rationale of the EU’s prevailing strategy toward China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Up until now,</strong> the EU has opted for pragmatic engagement with Beijing—seeking to make progress on trade and investment issues and preserving cooperation on global multilateral issues like climate change and sustainable development, while treading lightly on more contentious areas like human rights or Chinese foreign policy activism.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although no EU leader</strong> is keen to follow the Trump administration’s combative approach or to enter into a blame game with Beijing, China’s growing post-pandemic assertiveness and its lack of willingness to concede on Europe’s core demands means a more forceful European rejoinder is necessary.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As a result, 'Europe is in the nascent stages</strong> of a new debate about China.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Last year,</strong> the European Union published a strategic outlook paper in which it labelled China as a&nbsp;“systemic rival”, reflecting a sharp change in its balance of assumptions about the Sino-European relationship,' writes Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet,</strong> for all that, there has still been a high degree of restraint on the part of European political leaders – and not only because of the need to maintain the smooth functioning of one of their countries’ largest economic relationships.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has become</strong> all the more important given the precipitous slide in the transatlantic relationship during the Trump presidency.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result,</strong> many European leaders have been reluctant to simultaneously assume greater risk in their relationships with China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Caught between the U.S. and China,</strong> Europe also finds itself not having much influence on either.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s attitude towards Europe</strong> cannot be deciphered unless one factors in the all-important relationship with the United States,’ writes François Godement of the Institut Montaigne, Paris.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US</strong> now bases its China policies on a strategic competition. It has engaged a harsh trade conflict with China and is setting up a series of technology denials.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given that the transatlantic alliance</strong> is a mainstay of Europe’s foreign and security policy, this turnaround has implications for Europe itself.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US also outweighs Europe</strong> in the eyes of Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is not because the US</strong> has brought greater benefits to China, or because China’s trade and investment relationship with the US is larger.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘EU and US trade and investment in China </strong>are of similar magnitude, with perhaps more sourcing from China by US firms and more local market share for Europeans.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather,</strong> the difference is negative:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It rests</strong> on the actual dependencies of China vis-à-vis the United States, and the damage that America can inflict on China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Europe,</strong> with its balance between cooperation and acknowledgment of systemic rivalry, its taste for nuance and proportional responses, its institutional limitations, its internal divisions, a military focus on immediate Eastern border or nearby regions in crisis, has appeared far less likely to inflict damage on China.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In the dry words</strong> of a key Chinese analyst, Europe “is powerless in spite of its intentions (有心无力)” '</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My take</strong> is that is changing.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Given the diversity</strong> of individual nation’s views on China, coordinated actions may be slow to coalesce.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But make no mistake</strong>: Europe will not be powerless.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue</strong> we have great analyses from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR); the Institut Montaigne, Paris; the Asia Society; and the Carnegie Endowment.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A couple</strong> are long reports that are well-worth your reading in full.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Europe: Rethinking China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7siNge?track_p_id=dfAe1griNkY2m%4084zZWg_Ff" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/8J8vveMIW6LuysPi8r0zwki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7siNge?track_p_id=62gfZOf84zZWg_Xj33WDVfx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The meaning of systemic rivalry: Europe and China beyond the pandemic'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/vqV0PC8ljPF-dbxVpXSHFTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7siNge?track_p_id=084zZWg_oRNaUf3t5eApgls" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/uDEdoWy3NxIJsChGJl9zwUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7siNge?track_p_id=e5jezyg63Czz6RR84zZWg_H" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The meaning of systemic rivalry: Europe and China beyond the pandemic&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andrew Small</strong> | German Marshall Fund of the United States</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years, Europe has generally&nbsp;toughened&nbsp;its approach to China – for many of the same reasons that the United States has.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Europe is in the nascent stages</strong> of a new debate about China..</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Last year,</strong> the European Union published a strategic outlook paper in which it labelled China as a&nbsp;<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/communication-eu-china-a-strategic-outlook.pdf" rel="nofollow">“systemic rival”</a>, reflecting a sharp change in its balance of assumptions about the Sino-European relationship.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The pandemic</strong> is tilting that balance further.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In the midst of the crisis,</strong> China’s attempts to exploit political and economic vulnerabilities in Europe have necessitated pushback – be it against disinformation campaigns or attempts to target strategically important economic assets.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In recent weeks,</strong> Europe’s interactions with China have been bruising but clarifying.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Long-held assumptions</strong> about Beijing’s behaviour and intentions towards Europe were already creaking under pressure; they have now collapsed altogether.'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'European officials and analysts</strong> have become firmer in their hypotheses about issues ranging from the risks of closer Sino-Russian coordination to the Chinese party-state’s willingness to use its power to advance an ideological agenda hostile to European values.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The perception of China</strong> as a revisionist power, but not an actively destructive one, has long conditioned European policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years,</strong> Europe has generally&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2019-04-03/why-europe-getting-tough-china" rel="nofollow">toughened its</a> approach to China – for many of the same reasons that the United States has.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the last couple of years,</strong> European policymakers have taken steps to end their countries’ long period of asymmetric openness to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A suite of new defensive instruments</strong> in areas ranging from investment screening and trade enforcement to procurement reciprocity are either in place or in development.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The EU’s&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-industrial-strategy_en" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">industrial</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/50699/connecting-europe-asia-eu-strategy_en" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">connectivity</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">, and&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/content/european-digital-strategy" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">digital&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">strategies</strong> are infused with the perceived need to compete with China more effectively.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Shifts to EU export control policies</strong> and plans for a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-moves-closer-to-creating-u-s-style-magnitsky-act-11575922594" rel="nofollow">European equivalent&nbsp;</a>of the US Global Magnitsky Act are closely informed by the mass incarcerations and surveillance methods the Chinese government employs in Xinjiang.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet,</strong> for all that, there has still been a high degree of restraint on the part of European political leaders – and not only because of the need to maintain the smooth functioning of one of their countries’ largest economic relationships.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has become</strong> all the more important given the precipitous slide in the transatlantic relationship during the Trump presidency.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a number of areas,</strong> the US and Europe have&nbsp;<a href="http://www.gmfus.org/publications/transatlantic-cooperation-asia-and-trump-administration" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">quietly intensified</a>&nbsp;their cooperation on China-related issues – be it investment restrictions, industrial subsidies, or the mobilisation of infrastructure finance to compete with the BRI.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this has been overshadowed</strong> by the array of shocks Europe has faced: the Trump administration’s imposition of national-security tariffs on European goods, efforts to paralyse the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear agreement.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Doubts about Washington’s commitment</strong> to mutual defence under NATO’s Article 5, and a litany of lower-profile issues, have only heightened Europe’s uncertainty about the transatlantic relationship and the functioning of the multilateral system.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result,</strong> many European leaders have been reluctant to simultaneously assume greater risk in their relationships with China.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/82R8tM?track_p_id=3ldP98iXHi_fGsyBYOrDbk4" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/G9EK0hBp39apwSTnloaxVUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/82R8tM?track_p_id=b3Fc6xJc%40Tf198iXHi_1pgw" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Europe's Shattered Illusions of China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/xFgLAoAFh6Tb5o60EIsKYjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/82R8tM?track_p_id=31j398iXHi_K461%40CdSOZWR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/0WNi2IgymUpBA2dYdIzYMki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/82R8tM?track_p_id=4lw5o98iXHi_Fx4oNUaatOk" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How the Coronavirus Pandemic Shattered Europe’s Illusions of China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Carnegie Endowment</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Philippe Le Corre &amp; Erik Brattberg</strong> | Carnegie Endowment</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although no EU leader is keen to follow the Trump administration’s combative approach or to enter into a blame game with Beijing, China’s growing post-pandemic assertiveness and its lack of willingness to concede on Europe’s core demands means a more forceful European rejoinder is necessary.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘European views on China</strong> have hardened over the past several years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This sentiment</strong> is primarily driven by Europe’s increased disillusionment about Beijing’s willingness and ability to deliver on its repeated promises of market reform, as well as a general sense among Europeans that China under Xi is backsliding toward becoming more authoritarian at home and more assertive abroad.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘During the coronavirus crisis,</strong> the EU has increasingly seen China’s propaganda efforts as hostile and aggressive.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> China has not made any new friends in Europe since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and, if anything, Beijing has seen its standing on the continent markedly decline.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Notwithstanding the recent backlash</strong> against China’s activities during the coronavirus pandemic, European leaders had still hoped to make progress with Beijing on talks about a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment—a big-ticket item for the EU aimed at addressing long-standing structural economic difficulties.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet,</strong> despite meaningful exchanges between the two sides over the past six months, EU officials remain disappointed with the lack of a Chinese response on the key issues of state subsidies, intellectual property protection, and market access; these officials have made clear they will&nbsp;<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/commissioners/2019-2024/hogan/announcements/speech-commissioner-phil-hogan-publication-business-europes-strategy-paper-eu-china-economic_en" rel="nofollow">continue</a> to “put substance over speed.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The prospect of a breakthrough </strong>seems remote as China continues to drag its feet while EU officials stick to their guns.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Further,</strong> the lack of progress on the investment agreement talks combined with the recent fallout from China’s increased pressure on Hong Kong made it untenable to go forward with the China-EU leaders’ meeting in Leipzig.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The meeting</strong> has now been indefinitely postponed until later this year.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The best the two sides</strong> can hope for would be a brief political declaration that would fall short of addressing Europeans’ real worries.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The postponed summit</strong> is first and foremost a big setback for German Chancellor Angela Merkel—a frequent visitor to China since taking office in 2005—who had hoped it would be a highlight of Germany’s turn holding the rotating presidency of the EU Council in the fall.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Merkel’s original rationale</strong> for the summit (also branded as 27+1) was to project European unity to Xi.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this regard,</strong> the meeting would offer a stark contrast to China’s 17+1 dialogue with countries in Central and Eastern Europe, which Berlin, Brussels, and other Western European capitals see as challenging EU unity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Merkel</strong> was also hoping to use the occasion to send a message to the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump only a few months before the U.S. presidential election.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While China and Europe </strong>officially remain committed to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a5197502-6106-48e9-bb81-e4d87925d619" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">continuing the talks</a>&nbsp;over a bilateral investment treaty with the stated goal of completing them before the end of 2020, these recent setbacks nevertheless call into question the underlying rationale of the EU’s prevailing strategy toward China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Up until now,</strong> the EU has opted for pragmatic engagement with Beijing—seeking to make progress on trade and investment issues and preserving cooperation on global multilateral issues like climate change and sustainable development, while treading lightly on more contentious areas like human rights or Chinese foreign policy activism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although no EU leader</strong> is keen to follow the Trump administration’s combative approach or to enter into a blame game with Beijing, China’s growing post-pandemic assertiveness and its lack of willingness to concede on Europe’s core demands means a more forceful European rejoinder is necessary.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fxmkq?track_p_id=eFJqQNcI3afmRds9AY6U2_b" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/8J8vveMIW6LuysPi8r0zwki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fxmkq?track_p_id=9hlRjhzMph9AY6U2_JdEVj5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China, Europe, and covid-19 headwinds' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/zFgkJ6jrVOXhpHyJ7Cf5Gjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fxmkq?track_p_id=bAk4CrkKPJAR9AY6U2_AmpB" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/iwoDmm1uDH1bhGg6PiMHHUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fxmkq?track_p_id=5SftWD9AY6U2_OTNmR3sXtT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China, Europe, and covid-19 headwinds | European Council on Foreign Relations</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Janka Oertel </strong>| European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China-EU relations are entering a new stage – across Europe.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the course of the coronavirus crisis,</strong> China’s overall response has increasingly challenged long-held assumptions about its international role.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Europeans</strong> had for many years believed that, in the end, China would have an interest in a functioning global economic order because it benefited most from the current form of rules-based, globalised trade.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The events</strong> of recent months have demonstrated that Beijing does not have an appetite for investing in the global economy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather,</strong> it aims to focus on domestic growth and efforts to limit China’s dependence on global supply chains.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Europeans</strong> were convinced that China would support multilateralism, because the Chinese leadership placed a heavy emphasis on multilateral solutions and invested significantly in its presence in international organisations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the controversial interaction</strong> between China and the World Health Organisation over the course of the pandemic has demonstrated, the Chinese Communist Party can pressure international institutions in ways that help it wield influence globally.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, finally, Europeans</strong> were convinced for a long time that China had no interest in destroying the European Union, as it was a key trading partner for Beijing and potentially an additional great power to the United States in a more multipolar world order.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s attempts</strong> to divide Europeans during the crisis, along with its fierce and openly hostile rhetoric targeting the capacity of Western democracy to effectively respond to the health emergency, have served as a wake-up call.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But has this led</strong> to a real change in how most Europeans see China?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’The European Council on Foreign Relations</strong> has collected vast amounts of data from public opinion polls, expert surveys, and mapping exercises in the last few weeks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These various data sets</strong> together leads to one clear assessment: China-EU relations are entering a new stage – across Europe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Germany in the Lead</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/511UGG?track_p_id=9HX6FI5cvY5Q9qso_2LHjFB" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KYMqCgrHkhMhwbnxmyB6DEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/511UGG?track_p_id=05Q9qso_UiMRpMvhXOus25t" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Germany Leads</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/511UGG?track_p_id=4eTn35Q9qso_HGFsySu%40Dfp" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Germany Leads</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Institut Montaigne, Paris</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">François Godement</strong> | Institut Montaigne, Paris</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This deep economic interaction gives Berlin a prevailing influence on the EU’s China policy, even if EU institutions and rules require much effort to create unity.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Germany alone</strong> weighed 42.76% of EU exports to China and 18.29% of imports in 2019, regardless of the 5,000 German firms operating directly in China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This position</strong> has not come without concessions: according to Chinese sources, Germany is also Europe’s largest source of technology transfers to China, with 25,166 technologies transferred to China, for a total value of contracts worth $86.27 billion as of September 2019.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This deep economic</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">interaction</strong> gives Berlin a prevailing influence on the EU’s China policy, even if EU institutions and rules require much effort to create unity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No other member state</strong> holds more than 10% of European exports to China.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘None has the footprint</strong> of German firms in China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> this position of strength within Europe comes with relatively greater vulnerability to Chinese government actions.’</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/07/16/angela-merkels-soft-china-stance-is-challenged-at-home" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">. ‘The idea of German dependence</strong> on the Chinese market can be overdone.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China overtook America</strong> as Germany’s single biggest trading partner in 2016, and it is true that Germany is more exposed to China than other large European economies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet Germany’s trade with China,</strong> at around €200bn last year, is just 8% of its total trade.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It does more business</strong> with the four central European “Visegrad” countries alone.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Barely 2.5% of German jobs</strong> depend directly or indirectly on Chinese exports, reckons Jürgen Matthes of the German Economic Institute in Cologne.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6NGmG0?track_p_id=dK5iQFXfWAt6b37HkASU_Wo" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6NGmG0?track_p_id=dLVPcBj6euG4Ey7HkASU_Rq" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Mittelstand v Middle Kingdom - Angela Merkel’s soft China stance is challenged at home'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/PzLx1tHo7P__poWULmUnGDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6NGmG0?track_p_id=3iW27HkASU_t1b2UReYvafw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/yJoncrkOVWVuI-wlGrDYBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6NGmG0?track_p_id=agUh6NyYnoJ7HkASU_XciX5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Mittelstand v Middle Kingdom - Angela Merkel’s soft China stance is challenged at home</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The chancellor is brilliant, but perhaps still thinking in a pre-Xi world.”</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Angela Merkel</strong>&nbsp;has always had Germany’s economic ties with China in mind while conducting bilateral diplomacy with the Asian giant.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 15 years</strong> since she took over as chancellor in 2005, German exports to China have quintupled, to just under €100bn ($110bn), about 3% of&nbsp;gdp.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year China</strong> was easily Germany’s largest trade partner, to the particular benefit of big firms such as Volkswagen,&nbsp;bmwand Siemens.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This helps to explain</strong> Mrs Merkel’s apparent soft-pedalling on policy to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To avoid antagonising China’s ruling Communist Party</strong>, Mrs Merkel was careful not to take the side of the hawks in the heated debate last year and this over whether to let Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, bid for contracts to build Germany’s 5gnetworks (see&nbsp;<a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/07/16/americas-war-on-huawei-nears-its-endgame" rel="nofollow">article</a>).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘She may fear</strong> that Chinese retribution exacted on German carmakers—a threat dangled by Beijing’s ambassador in Berlin—would be too much for a fragile economy crawling out of recession amid transatlantic trade tensions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mrs Merkel also carries</strong> a “political conviction” that trying to contain China carries more risks than rewards, argues Thorsten Benner at the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How to accommodate</strong> China’s rise is a leitmotif of the speeches she made during her 12 trips to the country’s capital and hinterland in past years.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘She wants China</strong> to help shape rules on artificial intelligence and genetics to avoid cleaving the world into competing technological hemispheres.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Echoing the&nbsp;eu’s new position,</strong> Mrs Merkel has largely ditched talk of China as a “strategic partner”, describing it as a “competitor” with which Germany has “profound differences”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But she still hoped</strong> to find areas of partnership, notably on climate change and development in Africa, at an&nbsp;eu-China summit in Leipzig in September to be attended by all 27 European heads of government.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In June the summit</strong> was postponed, ostensibly due to the pandemic. Mrs Merkel hopes to revive it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leading figures</strong> in her Christian Democratic Union (cdu) object to her refusal to criticise the Chinese government directly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Norbert Röttgen,</strong> head of the Bundestag’s foreign-affairs committee and a contender for the&nbsp;cduleadership,&nbsp;condemned as “self-censorship” the German foreign office’s recent advice to be “particularly careful” about posting China-critical comments on social media.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Nils Schmid,</strong> foreign-policy spokesman for the Social Democrats, the&nbsp;cdu’s junior coalition partner, Germany’s China policy is “behind the times”.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Schmid speaks</strong> not only for the political elite but also for many business leaders who used to be relentlessly gung-ho about China’s potential but have long since tempered their enthusiasm.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some 5,500 German companies</strong> with production sites in China face hurdles ranging from forced technology transfer to being required to set up joint ventures.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many have lost faith</strong> in the possibility of change.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In early 2019</strong> such concerns culminated in a head-turning paper issued by the Federation of German Industries (bdi), which declared that its hopes of convergence on the rules of doing business with China had faded.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In January the&nbsp;vdma,</strong> an association of German machinery manufacturers, said the “imbalance” in doing business with China had become unacceptable.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year the German Chamber of Commerce in China</strong> found that nearly a quarter of German firms operating in China were planning to remove all or part of their businesses.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A new generation</strong> of analysts and politicians in Germany casts a more sceptical eye on China than its old-school sinologists.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The chancellor is brilliant,</strong> but perhaps still thinking in a pre-Xi world,” says Johannes Vogel, an&nbsp;mpfor the liberal Free Democratic Party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mrs Merkel</strong> will leave office next year.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Perceptions</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1; border-top:2px solid #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">China's Perception of Europe</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/85LWyW?track_p_id=9lfZdkgjlv8Wb3vS_l1JLAS" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KYMqCgrHkhMhwbnxmyB6DEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/85LWyW?track_p_id=a5eGfIVwhWQ8Wb3vS_tUDQx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China's Attitude Towards Europe: 'The Long Shadow of the U.S.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/pvqCmuyUJDBac7gqxe46Fjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/85LWyW?track_p_id=6gZkoev8Wb3vS_2DLDz3Iie" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China's Attitude Towards Europe: The Long Shadow of the U.S.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Institut Montaigne, Paris</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">François Godement</strong> | Institut Montaigne, Paris</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The US also outweighs Europe in the eyes of Beijing.This rests on the actual dependencies of China vis-à-vis the United States, and the damage that America can inflict on China.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read the full report:</strong></em><a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/ressources/pdfs/publications/europes-pushback-china-intention-policy-paper.pdf"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> '</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">Europe’s Pushback on China'</strong></a></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s attitude towards Europe</strong> cannot be deciphered unless one factors in the all-important relationship with the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US</strong> now bases its China policies on a strategic competition. It has engaged a harsh trade conflict with China and is setting up a series of technology denials.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given that the transatlantic alliance</strong> is a mainstay of Europe’s foreign and security policy, this turnaround has implications for Europe itself.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US also outweighs Europe</strong> in the eyes of Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is not because the US</strong> has brought greater benefits to China, or because China’s trade and investment relationship with the US is larger.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘EU and US trade and investment in China </strong>are of similar magnitude, with perhaps more sourcing from China by US firms and more local market share for Europeans.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather,</strong> the difference is negative:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It rests</strong> on the actual dependencies of China vis-à-vis the United States, and the damage that America can inflict on China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Technological dependence</strong> remains very strong – especially for digital and IT industries.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The threat of technology denial</strong> (now effective through the case of Huawei and a number of other key Chinese companies), of decoupling from Chinese producers or subcontractors, and the possibility of financial sanctions of which the US has a long experience over Hong Kong are a unique combination.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is striking</strong> for example, that China has taken no retaliation against American companies after the escalating measures against Huawei.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American platforms</strong> had always been discriminated against in China, largely for reasons related to internet content control.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But neither</strong> Apple nor other American IT companies have experienced any reprisals.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the other hand,</strong> China’s Ambassador to the UK has threatened the UK over the Huawei issue, by suspending Chinese participation in the UK’s nuclear plants, and in railway infrastructure: even these threats seem outlandish, since these projects were also in the interest of the Chinese companies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With Germany,</strong> reprisals against the German car makers in China have been hinted.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The differences of treatment</strong> reflect the appreciation by China’s leaders of relative strength in these cases.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'To this,</strong> one should add the hard power competition:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'after everything</strong> has been said about the rise of the Chinese military, the Pentagon and the US military presence on China’s periphery remain the most tangible obstacle to China’s further rise as a global military power.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Finally,</strong> the US federal government, even under present circumstances, has powers that the European Commission can only dream of.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Europe,</strong> with its balance between cooperation and acknowledgment of systemic rivalry, its taste for nuance and proportional responses, its institutional limitations, its internal divisions, a military focus on immediate Eastern border or nearby regions in crisis, has appeared far less likely to inflict damage on China.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In the dry words</strong> of a key Chinese analyst, Europe “is powerless in spite of its intentions (有心无力)” '</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1; border-top:2px solid #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">European Perceptions of China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/858Kcy?track_p_id=dUwcFQcFquhc6Z5p49Xy_fn" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_UHXqIfFomDPTH9OMq5qfki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/858Kcy?track_p_id=bNCJZQtOmxOW5p49Xy_Unrd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">European Perceptions of China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/esVoL2sqw0eo3HPAO7Bakjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/858Kcy?track_p_id=2qs5p49Xy_j%40QNcgJTdyS5j" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">European Perceptions of China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Asia Society</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike the United States, European debates about China tend not to be framed in terms of geopolitics or national security.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read the full report: '</strong></em><a href="https://asiasociety.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Dealing%20with%20the%20Dragon_Report_25.06.20.pdf"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dealing with the Dragon: China as a Transatlantic Challenge'</strong></a></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Generally speaking,</strong> European views of China often reflect the degree of intensity in their relations with China that European countries had in the past and have at present.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, the more critical perceptions</strong> of China are apparent in northern Europe (Scandinavia) and in Western Europe (France, Germany, and the Benelux countries).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Southern Mediterranean countries</strong> (Greece, Italy, Spain) are mixed in their views about China, with Greece very positive but Italy and Spain more negative (pre-coronavirus crisis).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Central-Eastern European states</strong> are similarly mixed, with varying views from the northern Baltics (more critical) down to the southern Balkans (more sympathetic). Overall, with the advent of the China-Eastern Europe (CEE) 17+1 mechanism, there has been generally more positive imagery among central Europeans.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the United Kingdom</strong> there is no clear position of the government or consensus on approach. Part of this odd absence of debate in such a robustly democratic society was attributed to the residual “golden era” narrative of the Cameron-Osborne period, but a large part was attributed to the Brexit trauma that has so preoccupied the UK—with the result that (it was observed) the British have little “bandwidth” for any other controversial issues.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In some parts of Europe</strong> there are very specific aspects of China that are debated, such as China’s growing investment footprint in Central Europe; attempted PRC corporate acquisitions of high-tech companies in Germany; whether or not to buy Huawei 5G; growing concerns over Chinese “influence operations”; the incarceration of Uighurs in Xinjiang.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These debates</strong> tend to exist over very specific elements of China’s behavior rather than China as a composite actor (as in the United States).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike the United States,</strong> European debates about China tend not to be framed in terms of geopolitics or national security.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">"Abandon all illusions, ye who enter here."</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5NEbBo?track_p_id=1%4050JWtq_ZchAGa535gbTuh" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KYMqCgrHkhMhwbnxmyB6DEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5NEbBo?track_p_id=cP2KMACvD6xIB50JWtq_%40CE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Europe: 'Abandon Your Ilusions'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5NEbBo?track_p_id=54w3mz50JWtq_V6PbYOoe3J" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Europe: 'Abandon Your Ilusions'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Institut Montaigne, Paris</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">François Godement </strong>| Institut Montaigne, Paris</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If there was one headline recommendation to make for European policy-makers, it would be: abandon your illusions.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Who can blame Chinese leaders</strong> for thinking the relationship with Europe is fine as it is?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is now up to Europeans</strong> to make their own interests and values China-proof.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Should convergence and cooperation</strong> from Beijing come back on some issues, it would be welcome.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Europe</strong> should not rely on this ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Accepting this sober reality</strong> leads to the following policy recommendations [here are two of them]:’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Abandon your illusions.'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If there was one headline recommendation</strong> to make for European policy-makers, it would be:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘abandon</strong> your illusions ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The days of engagement,</strong> of China’s gradual acceptance of a number of systemic changes belong to a time when China was coming from behind, economically weak and in conflict avoidance mode.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is strong today,</strong> in part because the Party-state mobilizes available resources to its own ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Systemic rivalry</strong> is how the CCP sees the world under Xi Jinping.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s foreign policy</strong> is conducted on a basis of relative strength and with calculated risks increasingly being ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Europe may think</strong> it is far away, but in an actual conflict, Europe is vulnerable because we depend on global integration, supply chains and rules.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Turn to democracies without aiming for identical views.’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Europe needs to stop focusing</strong> on trying to convince China, and turn much more to democracies instead.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a world</strong> that is shaken by resurgent nationalism, by internal challenges to the democratic process, it is important for Europeans to choose the least aversive partners, without aiming for identical ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pure and perfect multilateralism</strong> does not work if one is its only practitioner.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the end,</strong> rising above those differences makes more sense than trying to cooperate with an authoritarian ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A league of democracies</strong>&nbsp;is an idealist concept, given the differences in interests and values within their range.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our most natural partners</strong> – the United States, Japan and other East Asian states, India, the Latin American nations, and many African states, are far from sharing the entire compact of European values, which have provided an unprecedented safety net to almost all ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">claiming equidistance</strong> between them and China or other autocracies only serves to fragment and accelerate the crisis of democracy, and to help the advocates of authoritarianism.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An imperfect, incomplete or contested democracy</strong> is still safer in terms of commitments and international law than a system which subordinates policy to one party rule, and respect for international law to its own interests of the ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 18, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5dmbrM?track_p_id=6OOYuVm6IomkQ_o4XsFEaVm" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5dmbrM?track_p_id=8IldZ1G356IomkQ_5codlk3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'We Never Talk Anymore.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5dmbrM?track_p_id=9dk1QnTGGk6IomkQ_6hzhON" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5dmbrM?track_p_id=31wv6IomkQ_3At46NGTbEZP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'We Never Talk Anymore.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s National Bureau of Statistics</strong> announced that Q2 GDP grew by 3.2%. And discussion – and disagreements – began on two issues:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How did GDP</strong> grow so much? and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Did it really grow</strong> so much?</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On the issue of how it grew,</strong> most posit China stimulated the economy by increasing infrastructure spending.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In any case, the economic rebound</strong> also reflects the government’s continued reliance on spending on the building of highways and rail lines and other infrastructure projects to juice the economy, rather than on domestic consumption,’ writes NYT’s Keith Bradsher.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leaders</strong> have clearly decided to revive the old strategy of debt-fuelled, state-dominated investment,’ says the FT’s Jamil Anderlini</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not everyone agreed.</strong> Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, says:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's V-shaped economic recovery</strong> continued for a fourth consecutive month in June, led by strong domestic demand.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is significant</strong> that this healthy economic recovery has come without a dramatic stimulus.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So which is it?</strong> Lots of stimulus, or lots of consumption? Healthy or short-lived economic recovery?</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The strongest dissenting voice</strong> comes from Trivium China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'We hate to rain on the parade,</strong> but we are just going to say it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is NO WAY</strong> this economy grew 3.2% y/y last quarter.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There were just too many pockets of weakness</strong> [detailed in its report] for the entire economy to have growth this strongly.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For what it's worth, </strong>my money is on the Trivium analysis - China's GDP didn't get to 3.2%.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In addition to my confidence in the Trivium team, </strong>I find it hard to believe that China pumped in enough stimulus to overcome those 'pockets of weakness.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If nothing else</strong> this is a case study in how tough it is to analyze China's economy - and a cautionary tale about holding any view with too much confidence.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Whatever the answers, the best quote of the day</strong> about China’s economy comes from Jamil Anderlini:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A decade ago,</strong> some economists liked to describe the Chinese economy as a bicycle that needed to maintain a certain speed or it would tip over and crash.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today</strong> it is more like a bicycle laden with enormous boxes of debt, ridden by a drunk and with strategic competitors such as the US trying to knock it over.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Did China's GDP Really Grow 3.2%</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The titles of the five reports </strong>covered below show just how tough it is to understand – and agree on - China’s economy.</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s world-beating growth rate of...3.2%'</strong> | The Economist</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s economic rebound from the virus may be hard to sustain.'</strong> | The New York Times</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Behind the recovery, China’s economy is wobbling'</strong> | Financial Times</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China's Economic Resilience'</strong> | Matthews Asia</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'We call (N)BS'</strong> | Trivium China</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Why China's Debt Will Not Cause Financial Crisis</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Orlik,</strong> Chief Economist at Bloomberg, has just come out with an assumption-shattering book, <em style="font-style: italic">China: The Bubble That Never Pops</em>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Over time,</strong> we’ll cover a lot of Tom’s contrarian analyses about China’s economy. Today: debt.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most foreign economists</strong> and many Chinese economists think debt is the biggest risk for China's economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here’s</strong> why it isn’t.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial crises</strong> do not start on the asset side of the balance sheet.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial crises</strong> start on the liability side of bank's balance sheets - financial crises start because banks run out of funding.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> has an extremely high savings rate and it has controls on moving money out of the country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So </strong>‘there is a continued pileup of funds in the banking system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that means</strong> the funding for the banks is very secure.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So even as problems</strong> on the asset side of the balance sheet increase the trigger for crisis isn't there.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'America’s eerie lack of debate about China'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To be in Washington</strong> is to sense a nation sliding into open-ended conflict against China with eerily little debate,’ writes the FT’s Janan Ganesh.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The absence</strong> of such voices now is disconcerting.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, ‘</strong>dissent is becoming a political no-no.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For it means that policy</strong> is not being refined and stress-tested through argument.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s ultimate advantage</strong> is the raucousness of its public discourse.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the China question,</strong> it is troublingly civilised.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And what has surprised</strong> is how quickly we went from ‘why can’t we just get along’ to a unanimous ‘China is an enemy’ as the mainstream.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And that drift</strong> hasn’t stopped.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch closely</strong> right-leaning/far-right members of Congress like Senators Josh Hawley and Marco Rubio.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">They and their peers</strong> are churning out proposed legislation that slams China hard along several avenues.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Some of it</strong> may get signed into law.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And what is now tough on China</strong> will look benign by comparison - &nbsp;and become the new mainstream.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. 'The United</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">States Has Gotten Tough on China. When Will It Get Strategic?'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I could not associate myself </strong>more strongly with Jude Blanchette’s terrific essay - well-worth reading.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From the fixation</strong> on naming Covid-19 as “China virus” to the recent moves to limit the number of foreign students studying in the United States, these actions appear on the surface to be “standing up” to China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality,</strong> they detract from the serious work the United States is doing to lean into strategic competition, and they leave the country impoverished and unmoored all the while doing little to shake or adjust China’s longer-term ambitions.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And what</strong> should the U.S. do?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> needs to articulate a vision—a grand strategy—that looks&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">beyond the</em> narrower (albeit important) issue of China to depict the type of global order the United States aims to help realize and protect.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'To be sure,</strong> Xi is not making the same mistake, and under his rule,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-xi-jinpings-new-era-should-have-ended-us-debate-beijings-ambitions" rel="nofollow">the CCP has clearly articulated a vision of global leadership</a>—an illiberal one for sure—but Beijing understands that narrowing its grand strategy to a “U.S. strategy” is both short term and necessarily limiting.’</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Did China's GDP Really Grow 3.2%</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9E1hYm?track_p_id=2lG6TnutK_4jvjccYZaY3mY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9E1hYm?track_p_id=6XYpGBn6TnutK_W61wC23xW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China’s world-beating growth rate of...3.2%'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/nzeV59JmO4U-fqKyIYu6VTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9E1hYm?track_p_id=3Edi6TnutK_bkQAq42Xl5MN" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/e4NkIqDYsPX5PaQo4kOhlEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9E1hYm?track_p_id=abFSa3yGyDG6TnutK_%40DNgU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s world-beating growth rate of...3.2%</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is all to say: China’s rebound from the coronavirus crisis is impressive, but it is not yet back to normal.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the start&nbsp;of the year</strong> no one would have predicted that China would crow about such slow growth by its lofty standards.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet on July 16th</strong> it proudly reported that&nbsp;gdpgrew by 3.2% in the second quarter compared with a year ago, rebounding from its coronavirus lockdown (see chart 1).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This makes it,</strong> by far, the best-performing big economy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sceptics question</strong> the data.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But alternative indicators</strong> confirm that the recovery is real, albeit highly uneven.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘During February</strong> the government prioritised the reopening of factories, as shown by coal consumption (see chart 2).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Traffic congestion </strong>returned as people went back to work, partly because, wary of public transport, more commuted by car.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Banks ramped up</strong> their lending to keep businesses afloat.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some credit flowed</strong> into the property market.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet flights</strong> are still down as few people go on trips.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They also avoid crowds,</strong> taking the subway less often (see chart 3).</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Spending on restaurants,</strong> including takeaways, is weak, which in turn points to the soft labour market (see chart 4).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘That is all to say:</strong> China’s rebound from the coronavirus crisis is impressive, but it is not yet back to normal.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6aSLr6?track_p_id=5VhpSX7P0MeM_IBJVk6NTMw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6aSLr6?track_p_id=1t7P0MeM_TbEGNpZVoYlCJb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China’s economic rebound from the virus may be hard to sustain.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/FuDBv8F5vmNBANNb50AYPjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6aSLr6?track_p_id=8Naw%40%40KpW7P0MeM_sIc5XcO" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/vX2TQ5-obwXP2ghD6exSEki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6aSLr6?track_p_id=el5UuMo5eiBupcI7P0MeM_z" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China’s economic rebound from the virus may be hard to sustain.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keith Bradsher</strong> | The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economic rebound also reflects the government’s continued reliance on spending on the building of highways and rail lines and other infrastructure projects to juice the economy, rather than on domestic consumption.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s economy</strong> expanded 3.2 percent from April through June compared to the same period last year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was an abrupt turnaround</strong> from the January through March quarter, when the economy&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html" rel="nofollow">shrank 6.8 percent</a>, the first contraction that China has acknowledged in nearly half a century.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China’s appearance of economic strength</strong> in the second quarter was also partly a statistical fluke.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In April and May,</strong> China spent less on imports because the cost of oil, copper and other commodities went down.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That meant China</strong> had a bigger trade surplus. And a larger trade surplus shows up in countries’ accounting as faster economic growth.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But those prices</strong> have jumped back up in the last several weeks, so the country’s economic performance now through September will not reflect the same import savings.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In any case, the economic rebound</strong> also reflects the government’s continued reliance on spending on the building of highways and rail lines and other infrastructure projects to juice the economy, rather than on domestic consumption.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing gave quick approval</strong> for local governments to issue bonds to pay for shovel-ready projects like building a subway line in Dalian and renovating a train station in Xi’an.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The government</strong> also provided quick loans and other subsidies to businesses&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/economy/coronavirus-china-economy-stimulus.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">on the condition that they not lay off workers</a>.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite those stimulus measures,</strong> however,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/business/china-coronavirus-economy-jobs.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">tens of millions of Chinese remain out of work</a>, particularly young Chinese.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The government</strong> has tried to respond by sharply expanding the number of places in graduate schools this autumn and even redefining employment to include bloggers and professional video gamers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Relying on infrastructure investment</strong> raises questions about whether China’s economic turnaround can be sustained, and whether it can become the engine needed to drive the global economy out of a slump.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets</strong> in China fell 4.8 percent on Thursday as investors concluded that economic growth had become too dependent on government stimulus.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It’s all investment,”</strong> said Hong Hao, the chief strategist at Bank of Communications International.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Consumption,</strong> which is the most sustainable part of growth, is doing much less, so therefore the market sees it as a weakness in economic health.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sales of groceries</strong> and other essentials have stayed strong in China throughout the pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the people’s willingness</strong> to spend on restaurant meals, nights at hotels and other nonessential goods and services has still not fully bounced back.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China also needs to rev up consumption</strong> at home because demand for its exports has slowed as other countries go into recession and unemployment grows globally.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Factories in China</strong> are already cranking out furniture, consumer electronics and mass-market cars more quickly than consumers at home or abroad want to buy them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economic impact of the coronavirus</strong> poses a challenge to the ruling Communist Party and its efforts to make good on a promise by Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, to eradicate extreme poverty by the end of this year.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vVNK4?track_p_id=06L1B0Q_iM%40lbZJJYZGnyVm" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vVNK4?track_p_id=8zFGAmUqz6L1B0Q_LQwCORQ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Behind the recovery, China’s economy is wobbling'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vVNK4?track_p_id=2Uq6L1B0Q_efNZ3pLdXXdgx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/PJVRxNKj8FFQdd6cWvE7Cki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vVNK4?track_p_id=7eWGTZ3w6L1B0Q_n46zDAVl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Behind the recovery, China’s economy is wobbling</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jamil Anderlini</strong>&nbsp;| Financial Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A decade ago, some economists liked to describe the Chinese economy as a bicycle that needed to maintain a certain speed or it would tip over and crash.'&nbsp;</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Today it is more like a bicycle laden with enormous boxes of debt, ridden by a drunk and with strategic competitors such as the US trying to knock it over.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s headline economic data</strong> released on Thursday showed growth of 3.2 per cent in the second quarter, a strong rebound from the first three months of the year when the country reported its first contraction since the end of the Cultural Revolution in the mid-1970s.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That puts the overall decline</strong> for the first half of the year at just 1.6 per cent — an enviable performance compared with most big economies still struggling with the pandemic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The “fundamentals” of China’s growth</strong> “have not changed and will not change”, state media quoted President Xi Jinping as saying after Thursday’s figures were published.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But therein</strong> lies the problem.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even before the first virus cases</strong> were discovered in Wuhan, the economy was struggling with massive over-investment, particularly in redundant real estate projects, mounting bad debt, growing dominance of inefficient state enterprises and chronic underconsumption.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The government’s response</strong> to the collapse of growth in the first quarter has exacerbated all these problems.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial regulators</strong> are warning of a flood of new bad loans and a surge in unregulated shadow banking even as Beijing opens the credit floodgates to get the economy moving again.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The build-up of debt</strong> in the economy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis was the fastest and biggest in history and the pace has accelerated to record highs since the start of the pandemic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite years of official rhetoric</strong> on the need to create a consumer economy and reduce reliance on investment as the main driver of growth, China’s household consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product remains extraordinarily low — less than 40 per cent and on a par with countries such as Gabon and Algeria.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the UK,</strong> US and other developed economies, household consumption is about 65-70 per cent.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The effect of the virus</strong> on the retail and services sectors has hammered consumption, with official retail sales down 11.4 per cent in the first half.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That has prompted Beijing</strong> to boost growth through debt-fuelled investment, as it did in the wake of the global financial crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Once again,</strong> the drive has been led by investment in infrastructure and real estate, and it has been dominated by the sclerotic state-owned sector.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese experts</strong> estimated last year there were at least 65m empty apartments in the country following a decade-long construction boom.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite this,</strong> real estate investment increased 1.9 per cent in the first half of 2020 even as overall investment declined 3.1 per cent.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A bit of digging</strong> into Thursday’s data release reveals investment by state-owned enterprises in the first half of the year rose by 2.1 per cent, while investment by private companies fell by 7.3 per cent.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This important data point</strong> was conveniently absent from the English press release provided to most international investors.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it is in keeping</strong> with a three-year plan recently approved by Mr Xi to enhance the role of state enterprises in the economy at the expense of private and foreign-invested businesses.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s roughly 130,000 state enterprises</strong> are riddled with inefficiency, corruption and waste.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in a time of national crisis they</strong> are an indispensable source of employment and stability for the ruling Communist party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the virus continues </strong>to rage across much of the world and as relations with the US and other important trade partners worsen dramatically, China’s leaders have clearly decided to revive the old strategy of debt-fuelled, state-dominated investment.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A decade ago,</strong> some economists liked to describe the Chinese economy as a bicycle that needed to maintain a certain speed or it would tip over and crash.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today</strong> it is more like a bicycle laden with enormous boxes of debt, ridden by a drunk and with strategic competitors such as the US trying to knock it over.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vmyS8?track_p_id=148kxEMw_MewwBA4aCfA3aL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/OzYcFf4rJmckh3zTGB-FWEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vmyS8?track_p_id=1u8kxEMw_Ftu5S6E1R3xJxu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China's Economic Resilience'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/5GI_siDuSwapKNtKyPvZ8Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vmyS8?track_p_id=66Z21Ua8kxEMw_nQVfhFv2U" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oicZ3tZ7aAAMTNcBZiGI0Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8vmyS8?track_p_id=3kWF8kxEMw_SWEoSrCskGCY" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China's Economic Resilience'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sinology | Matthew Asia</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andy Rothman</strong> | Matthews Asia</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's V-shaped economic recovery continued for a fourth consecutive month in June, led by strong domestic demand.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's V-shaped economic recovery</strong> continued for a fourth consecutive month in June, led by strong domestic demand.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If COVID-19</strong> remains under control, China can remain the world's best consumer story.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China's economy</strong> is increasingly driven by domestic demand, so it is important that consumer spending has continued to bounce back.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year</strong> was the eighth consecutive year in which the consumer and services (or tertiary) part of China's GDP was the largest part.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although consumer spending</strong> is likely to remain softer than usual until next year, on a relative basis China is likely to remain the world's best consumer story.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales</strong> plummeted to a 23.7% year-over-year (YoY) decline in January/February, during the peak of China's COVID-19 outbreak, but was down only 2.9% in June.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A healthy recovery,</strong> but not yet back to normal: in June 2019, real retail sales rose 7.9% YoY.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, the recovery of sales</strong> of autos and homes reflects that middle-class and wealthy consumers have both sufficient money and enough confidence in the future to spend it’.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The improvement</strong> in consumer spending and sentiment has come in advance of a full recovery in income, suggesting a fairly high degree of confidence in the future.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As most businesses reopened</strong>, nominal per capita disposable income increased 4.5% YoY in the second quarter, stronger than the 0.8% rise in 1Q20, but still far below the 8.9% pace a year ago.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last month,</strong> investment in infrastructure rose 6.8% YoY, up from 2.3% in April and a decline of 30.3% during the first two months of the year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This was the second-fastest</strong> monthly growth rate in two years, and, along with new fuel efficiency requirements, helped drive a 75% YoY increase in domestic excavator sales in June, following a 77% rise in May.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is significant</strong> that this healthy economic recovery has come without a dramatic stimulus.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Credit growth,</strong> for example, has only accelerated modestly.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Augmented Total Social Finance (TSF)</strong> outstanding, the broadest metric for credit growth, was up 12.9% YoY by the end of June, compared to an 11.5% growth rate during the same period in 2019.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Far from the 31% growth rate</strong> during the same period in 2009, when Beijing implemented a massive stimulus in response to the Global Financial Crisis.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This highlights</strong> the strength of an organic recovery, and leaves the government with plenty of dry powder if the recovery were to falter.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> the government's long-running effort to de-risk the financial system continues.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Off-balance-sheet lending</strong> outstanding declined by 5.4% YoY in June, the 25th consecutive month of falling shadow lending activity.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unemployment </strong>remains a concern.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the absence of social unrest</strong> and the continuing rebound in consumer spending suggests that the government's support for workers and businesses has provided a cushion for many who lost their jobs, laying the foundation for an economic recovery.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> I would like to once again remind readers that because China is a domestic-demand driven economy, there is a low risk that a possible COVID-driven global recession, or the on-going downward spiral in U.S.-China relations might derail the recovery.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> domestic consumption accounted for almost 60% of GDP growth.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The gross value of exports</strong> was equal to 17% of China's GDP (down from 35% in 2007), but almost 30% of those exports were processed goods for which little value was added in China.’<br></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Significantly,</strong> over the last five years, net exports (the value of a country's exports minus its imports) have, on average, contributed zero to China's GDP growth.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> only 17% of China's exports went to the U.S. last year.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So</strong> while a collapse in demand for Chinese exports would be a drag on the recovery, it would likely be a modest drag.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wzlku?track_p_id=aKNvEB6Mtbv6hmw62_6ngc3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/A7ksJ9vacWg-MZcRwzLMR0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wzlku?track_p_id=exB5VCEYrKSiNzC6hmw62_5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'We call (N)BS'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wzlku?track_p_id=1h6hmw62_VavrpNbHelwiDK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'We call (N)BS'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Markets Dispatch | Trivium China</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is NO WAY this economy grew 3.2% y/y last quarter.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Get this, y’all:</strong>&nbsp;China’s stats bureau (NBS) dropped Q2 GDP data on Thursday – claiming the real economy grew at 3.2% y/y last quarter.’                  </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The print was in line</strong> with&nbsp;expectations set by&nbsp;domestic media, which said growth would be in the 1-3.4% range, in the run up to release (<a href="https://mailchi.mp/0ad6593e11c3/what-to-expect-on-gdp-day-china-markets-dispatch-july-15-2020?e=902fe70bde" rel="nofollow">see yesterday’s Markets Dispatch</a>).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That said,</strong> this growth number is at the very top of that range.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Overall,</strong> it should be positive for risk sentiment among global investors.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although,</strong> Chinese markets did something they often do – reacting negatively to good data, because it likely means less policy support going forward.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Shanghai composite</strong> was of 4.5% by the end of trading on Thursday.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our take:</strong>&nbsp;We hate to rain on the parade, but we are just going to say it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is NO WAY</strong> this economy grew 3.2% y/y last quarter.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gasp!’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our reasoning:’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consumer purchases</strong> contracted throughout the quarter (see next entry).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The services sector</strong> struggled throughout out most of Q2 – with the majority of restaurants reporting contraction in revenues and foot traffic through April and May and the Ministry of Transportation’s passenger traffic data showing ~50% y/y contraction through the end of May.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Based on our conversations</strong> with businesses and our estimations of business resumption activity throughout April and May – when most companies were stuck at 85-90% of normal operating activity, and some were operating much lower – there is <strong style="font-weight: bold">No Way</strong> China’s economy genuinely expanded in Q2 on a y/y basis.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sure, industrial output</strong> has been strong, and overall investment spending has moved back into positive territory.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But add it all up</strong>&nbsp;and there were just too many pockets of weakness for the entire economy to have growth this strongly.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But who are we</strong> to get in the way of a good comeback story?</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bottom line:</strong>&nbsp;After buying good will by coming clean on the extent of Q1 economic weakness, authorities are at risk of undercutting their credibility.’<br><br><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What to watch:</strong>&nbsp;The underlying numbers show China is still on a two-track recovery – with solid industrial output and weak consumer spending.’                  </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So far, policymakers</strong> haven’t found a good fix for the latter. Can they in H2 2020?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">read more</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NBS:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202007/t20200716_1776194.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">统筹防疫和发展成效显著 上半年国民经济逐步复苏</a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Understanding China's Debt</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9DfheC?track_p_id=9UxBKWuMk57lV3du_vM3j2H" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9DfheC?track_p_id=7LFNYcUe7lV3du_hDjRszLD" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China's Debt Will Not Cause Financial Crisis</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/HwgHsbI5_Y7dfN7ZOX9eKjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9DfheC?track_p_id=eie%40QeXndQFa3vR7lV3du_J" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ezvfz0dSZGaf7e1lefMFvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9DfheC?track_p_id=e5uV42wLKKKydVF7lV3du_K" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Online Event: A Book Talk on "China: The Bubble That Never Pops" | Center for Strategic and International Studies</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Orlik</strong> | Chief Economist, Bloomberg</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial crises start on the liability side of bank's balance sheets: banks run out of funding. China has an extremely high savings rate that means the funding for the banks is very secure.'</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'So even as problems on the asset side of the balance sheet increase, the trigger for crisis isn't there.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Orlik discusses </strong>his new book <em style="font-style: italic">China: The Bubble That Never Pops</em>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom talks</strong> about four points: debt, reform, the state sector, and the future.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is what</strong> he says about China’s debt crisis.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The other topics</strong> will be covered in upcoming issues of the China Macro Reporter.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I lived in China for 11 years </strong>- from 2007 through 2018 - and for that entire time there was a consistent thread of pessimism, even a thread of doom, running through the Western view on what was happening in China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yes, the story went,</strong> 10% growth looks impressive, but poke a little bit beneath the surface, and there are problems that is too high; China will have a financial crisis. Leadership can't execute on reform; they're too conservative; they're too trapped by vested interests. The state sector is too big and too inefficient. China's medium-term growth prospects just aren't that strong. There's a middle-income trap. There’s a demographic problem as the workforce ages.’ &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And yet,</strong> here we are in 2020, and the China of bubble has not popped.’ &nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So my motivation</strong> in putting pen to paper for my book was to try and understand why - what are the hidden sources of resilience in China's economy?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How does China</strong> continue to defy the pessimistic predictions of collapse?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I want to touch</strong> on four areas where I think we don't have the story wrong on China, but we have the emphases in the wrong place:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Debt,</strong> reform, the state sector, and the future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First let's talk about debt.</strong> The chart above tells you the way in which most foreign economists and many Chinese economists think about the biggest risk for China's economy. It shows you the ratio of debt to GDP in China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘In 2008</strong> China's debt to GDP was around 140%.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Fast forward to 2015, </strong>and that debt level had leapt to 250%.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, if we look around the world,</strong> and we scan the history books, we can't find any other countries that have taken on as much debt as China, as quickly as China has. But we can find a number of countries that took on significant debt, but less that, less that than China, and still had a financial crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Korea in 1997</strong> took on a lot of debt - not as much debt as China - and they had a financial crisis.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. in 2006, 2007</strong> took on a lot of debt - not as much debt as China – and they still had the Lehman shock and the Great Financial Crisis.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if we look a bit deeper </strong>into China's financial system, if we think about the borrowers:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have zombie enterprises;</strong> we have real estate developers building ghost teams in the desert; we have local governments building roads to nowhere.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if we look</strong> at the lender side:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have the explosive growth</strong> of a shadow banking sector, skirting the rules, skirting the regulations, and growing faster than they should do.’ &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So if you put all of that together,</strong> it looks like an extremely risky picture.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But what that picture</strong> misses is something really important about financial crises and something really important about China's financial system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That's what's happening</strong> on the liability side of bank's balance sheets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Remember that financial crises</strong> do not start on the asset side of the balance sheet.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lehman brothers</strong> did not fall over because it had too many investments in mortgage-backed securities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Korean banks</strong> did not fall over because they had too much exposure to crony capitalist corporations.’’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial crises</strong> start on the liability side of bank's balance sheets - financial crises start because banks run out of funding.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lehman</strong> fell over because of the, the money markets decided they didn't want to fund it anymore.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Korean banks</strong> and the Asian financial crisis pulled over fell over because foreign investors pulled their money out of the country.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What does</strong> that mean for China?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Well, China</strong> has an extremely high savings rate and it has controls on moving money out of the country.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And what that means</strong> is that there is a continued pileup of funds in the banking system.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's deposit base</strong> - the deposit base for the banks - continues to grow.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that means</strong> the funding for the banks is very secure.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So even as problems</strong> on the asset side of the balance sheet increase - and I am sure there are a vast quantity of hidden bad loans on China's bank balance sheets - the trigger for crisis isn't there.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. We Never Talk Anymore</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xO3M0?track_p_id=eGYlyT4xkLXapUt4ij03y_m" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xO3M0?track_p_id=db5gb3vZKOJk364ij03y_aV" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'America’s eerie lack of debate about China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xO3M0?track_p_id=9nJzlMdZ2j4ij03y_R3R3Yq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Nf3cvEdZfoOMjXsNCI0AO0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xO3M0?track_p_id=9UIT%40Xb6cZ4ij03y_sjDlsB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">America’s eerie lack of debate about China | Financial Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Janan Ganesh</strong> | Financial Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s ultimate advantage is the raucousness of its public discourse. On the China question, it is troublingly civilised.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ferocious partisanship</strong> has its uses.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If nothing else,</strong> a divided nation can console itself that no government idea goes unexamined and unopposed.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Scrutiny</strong> can be all the more exacting for being born of tribal malice rather than Socratic truth-seeking.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US is riven</strong> — it has managed to politicise the workaday face-mask — but it avoids the equal and opposite danger of unreflective consensus.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Except,</strong> that is, on the most momentous policy of the century.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To be in Washington</strong> is to sense a nation sliding into open-ended conflict against China with eerily little debate.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Politicians </strong>who can be counted on to dispute the colour of the sky or the sum of two plus two are of a piece on the necessity of a superpower duel.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the Rambo trailers</strong> that pass for his campaign ads, Joe Biden only faults President Donald Trump’s China line for its softness.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nor is the Democratic candidate</strong> for the White House a rare belligerent in his party.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chuck Schumer,</strong> who leads it in the Senate, has urged the president to “hang tough” on tariffs for “strength is the only way to win with China”.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He was not pressed</strong> to say what in the historic record justifies this coffee-mug banality, or against which nation he would ever counsel weakness.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No,</strong> that would require debate.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Neither in Washington nor in the corporate sector</strong> is there much to be found, at least on the record.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Academics </strong>have been more forthcoming with their qualms, but not in great number or to great effect.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result is that un-American thing,</strong> consensus, and it concerns not just the future but increasingly the past.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Everyone now</strong> “knows” that pre-Trump Washington was a place of Whiggish credulity, forever betting on material enrichment to make of China a vast Japan or South Korea: a democracy, a friend.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this account,</strong> its admittance to the World Trade Organization was the inadvertent crowning of a rival by American enablers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leave aside the slander</strong> against presidents from George HW Bush (who defied Beijing to arm Taiwan) to Barack Obama (who put tariffs on Chinese tyres).</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leave aside the idea</strong> that America’s only options are liberal naïvéte and a second cold war.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As in the 1940s,</strong> when the US was said to have “lost” China to communism, the premise here is that Earth’s most populous country, and oldest living civilisation, rises and falls in response to US policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That it has agency of its own,</strong> that its post-1978 reforms were going to restore its stature anyway is, in Washington, a more exotic suggestion than it should be.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘None of this is a plea</strong> for (how easily the Soviet-era patter returns) detente.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It might be</strong> that a US-China struggle is not just defensible, but ordained.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We know</strong> the international-relations theory by now.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A surging power,</strong> an established one; a one-party state, a democracy: the raw materials for conflict are there.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it is possible to believe</strong> all this and still feel unnerved by the lack of public deliberation and prominent dissenters.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even at the dawn of the cold war,</strong> there was Senator Robert Taft to argue against Nato.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There was diplomat George Kennan,</strong> the 20th century’s most unwittingly important man, who viewed “containment” as a bellicose misreading of his advice.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And these minority reports</strong> were filed in a much more deferential America than today’s.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The absence</strong> of such voices now is disconcerting.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For it means that policy</strong> is not being refined and stress-tested through argument.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is no longer clear,</strong> for instance, if US grievances stop at China’s trade practices or reach into its domestic treatment of its own people.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mikes Pence and Pompeo,</strong> the vice-president and secretary of state, flag the second more often than Mr Trump does.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democrats </strong>mention it more than Republicans.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This mission creep,</strong> if it is afoot, rather matters.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An economic rivalry</strong> would be fraught enough.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One that pits</strong> governing philosophies against each other is much harder to finesse.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another implication of the consensus</strong> is that dissent is becoming a political no-no.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a dark past</strong> to contend with here.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is forgotten</strong> that McCarthyism’s breakthrough had little to do with Russia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was</strong> that alleged loss of China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American diplomats</strong> were hounded by their own lawmakers (the right mastered cancel culture first).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When President Harry Truman</strong> cashiered general Douglas MacArthur, who itched to strike China, not everyone sided with civilian over military power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington</strong> now is nowhere near that level of frenzy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even by the standards of an election year,</strong> though, the reluctance to say anything construable as “soft” is impossible to miss.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s ultimate advantage</strong> is the raucousness of its public discourse.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'On the China question,</strong> it is troublingly civilised.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Tactics but No Strategy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6nRE0W?track_p_id=6LRywXO8FrKTm_e%40tsd6SKE" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6nRE0W?track_p_id=2Tv8FrKTm_ncBCxZczmsnbG" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The United States Has Gotten Tough on China. When Will It Get Strategic?'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/n6ZeAPJvEaaIhXJ3MA5u3jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6nRE0W?track_p_id=4JbaH8FrKTm_46qdHgtbEXw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/fsArUEq_5ZcT8iI9UeHOfUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6nRE0W?track_p_id=3ACU8FrKTm_zadYMwgshSs4" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The United States Has Gotten Tough on China. When Will It Get Strategic?'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jude Blanchette</strong> | CSIS</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'The recent approach to China prioritizes tough-appearing tactics over patient, strategic thinking.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">These excerpts only cover a couple of points in this excellent analysis. You should read the full essay!</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tactics Not Strategy</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Wednesday,</strong> the&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">New York Times</em>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/us/politics/china-travel-ban.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">reported</a>&nbsp;the Trump administration is weighing a ban on all members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and their families from traveling to the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ban</strong> is indicative of a recent approach to China that prioritizes tough-appearing tactics over patient, strategic thinking.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From the fixation</strong> on naming Covid-19 as “China virus” to the recent moves to limit the number of foreign students studying in the United States, these actions appear on the surface to be “standing up” to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality,</strong> they detract from the serious work the United States is doing to lean into strategic competition, and they leave the country impoverished and unmoored all the while doing little to shake or adjust China’s longer-term ambitions.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All of this leaves the United States</strong> ill-prepared to face the very real threats emanating from the Xi administration—challenges that will persist for years, if not decades.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reality is this:</strong> under the leadership of CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, China’s political system has veered dangerously in an expansionist and authoritarian direction.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A U.S. Grand Strategy</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> needs to articulate a vision—a grand strategy—that looks&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">beyond</em>&nbsp;the narrower (albeit important) issue of China to depict the type of global order the United States aims to help realize and protect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'To be sure,</strong> Xi is not making the same mistake, and under his rule,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-xi-jinpings-new-era-should-have-ended-us-debate-beijings-ambitions" rel="nofollow">the CCP has clearly articulated a vision of global leadership</a>—an illiberal one for sure—but Beijing understands that narrowing its grand strategy to a “U.S. strategy” is both short term and necessarily limiting.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is from Cold War writings</strong> that some of the most trenchant advice for the United States at this current moment can be found.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘NSC 68, written in 1950</strong> under the leadership of Paul Nitze, articulates a more aggressive approach to dealing with the Soviet Union, yet in an early passage, it proclaims:’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We must lead</strong> in building a successfully functioning political and economic system in the free world. It is only by practical affirmation, abroad as well as at home, of our essential values, that we can preserve our own integrity, in which lies the real frustration of the Kremlin design.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But most enduring</strong> are the final sentences of George Kennan’s “long telegram,” which remain as important as they were when penned on February 22, 1946:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We must have courage and self-confidence</strong> to cling to our own methods and conceptions of human society. After all, the greatest danger that can befall us in coping with this problem of Soviet communism is that we shall allow ourselves to become like those with whom we are coping.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfortunately,</strong> the United States is failing to live up to both Kennan and Nitze’s admonitions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing</strong> could not be happier.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 15, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7QGxAu?track_p_id=3eJp8jdptO_jV3SjfAtOSbr" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7QGxAu?track_p_id=dFsoKValWBW21G8jdptO_uF" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong Sanctions | Standing Up for the South China Sea | Trouble Ahead with Iran &amp; China Deal</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7QGxAu?track_p_id=6xeiOVc8jdptO_hDqmX5s6i" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/malcolmriddell/</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Three big things:</strong></p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Secretary Pompeo’s statement </strong>that rejected nearly all Chinese claims in the South China Sea.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump’s signing legislation </strong>that gave his administration more power to impose sanctions on Chinese officials in retaliation for the Hong Kong national security law, and his signing an executive order ending Hong Kong's preferential trade status and more.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A reported </strong>trade and military deal between Iran and China.</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each</strong> of these issues is complex.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I've jammed </strong>the newsletter with the analyses you need to understand them.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So rather</strong> than my usual practice of summarizing each, I've covered and integrated them in the short essay below.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Be sure to browse</strong> all the posts to find what you need to know about the issues of most interest to you.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My Take</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Readers know </strong>that my question when trying to answer how the U.S. should respond to China’s assertiveness is:<strong style="font-weight: bold"> What would Reagan do?</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In confronting </strong>the Soviet Union, Reagan had:</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A clear objective: </strong>Ending – not winning - the Cold War.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A comprehensive strategy</strong> for achieving the objective.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A great team</strong> to execute that strategy.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A solid and trusting relationship</strong> with Soviet leader Gorbachev.</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And </strong>he attained his objective.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Although some </strong>will dispute how much credit he should get, President Reagan skillfully put the elements of U.S. policy and action into place.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In comparison, </strong>the Trump administration in dealing with China, for the most part, lacks all these elements.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But to its credit</strong> the administration is beginning to show a Reaganesque flair for tactics.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even if you don’t agree </strong>with all of the tactics, these are certainly an improvement over relying tariffs and a trade war to curb China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Steven Lee Myers&nbsp;and&nbsp;Paul Mozur</strong> of The New York Times write:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One by one,</strong> the United States has hit at the core tenets of Xi Jinping’s vision for a rising China ready to assume the mantle of superpower.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a matter of weeks,</strong> the Trump administration has imposed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/business/economy/us-halts-high-tech-exports-hong-kong.html" rel="nofollow">sanctions over punitive policies&nbsp;</a>in Hong Kong and China’s western region of Xinjiang.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It took new measures</strong> to suffocate Chinese innovation by cutting it off from American technology and pushing allies to look elsewhere.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then, on Monday,</strong> it&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-pompeo.html" rel="nofollow">tore up China’s claims&nbsp;</a>in the South China Sea, setting the stage for sharper confrontation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tactics don’t equal a strategy,</strong> and it’s unclear what President Trump’s objective is.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But perhaps these tactics</strong> will coalesce into a discernable strategy which we can understand and debate.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In that vein, </strong>the U.S. launched two new tactical assaults this week:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On Hong Kong</strong> (and China), and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the South China Sea.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hong Kong</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The South China Morning Post reports: </strong>‘US President Donald Trump took two actions against China in response to Beijing’s moves on Hong Kong on Tuesday:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Signing an executive order</strong> ending the city’s preferential trade treatment, and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Enacting a bill</strong> that would require sanctions against foreign individuals and banks for contributing to the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The ending</strong> of Hong Kong’s preferential trade status and a host of other uncouplings will mostly harm the people of Hong Kong, not China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">It is ill-advised in most respects and may serve to alienate the people the U.S. aims to support.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the sanctions</strong> against the perpetrators could bite.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">There is already</strong> reporting that some who feel they might be caught in that net are moving assets out of the U.S.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">There is a downside,</strong> however, for U.S. financial institutions. Bloomberg opines:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., HSBC Holdings Plc</strong> and their peers face a threat to their massive expansion plans in China from a U.S. law that would sanction Chinese and Hong Kong officials involved in imposing a national security law on the former British colony.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How effective or harmful</strong> either of these is will depend on implementation.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So stay tuned.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Sea</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In a statement this week, Mike Pompeo declared:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are making clear:</strong> Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greg Poling</strong> of CSIS says:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This new rhetorical position</strong> won’t have much effect by itself.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But as the opening gambit</strong> in a long-term effort to impose cost on China and rally support for U.S. partners, it could be significant.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most immediate effect</strong> of this policy change will be on the diplomatic front.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is much easier</strong> to rally international support against “illegal” activity than against actions that are merely distasteful or destabilizing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is also much more damaging</strong> to a country that aspires to global leadership to be accused of gross violations of international law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Some say</strong> that this position is no different than that of the Obama administration.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But during that administration</strong> China began in earnest and without opposition the building of artificial islands (and the militarization of some) that are the basis of many of China’s spurious claims of sovereignty.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So a full-throated</strong> and unambiguous statement of the U.S. position, even if it is a reiteration, is necessary and very welcome.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Iran-China</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unlike the U.S.,</strong> China does appear to have strategy - even if we cannot be sure if it’s achieving world domination, as the hawks have it, or just taking advantage of every tool to continue its peaceful rise, as, well, nobody in the U.S. seems to believe any more.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And it often</strong> executes that strategy with effective tactics.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here </strong>is a stunning example.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Recently </strong>The New York Times reported:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Iran and China</strong> have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A particular concern</strong> has been the proposed port facilities in Iran, including two along the coast of the Sea of Oman.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One at Jask,</strong> just outside of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, would give the Chinese a strategic vantage point on the waters through which much of the world’s oil transits.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The passage</strong> is of critical strategic importance to the United States, whose Navy’s Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, in the gulf.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has already constructed a series of ports</strong> along the Indian Ocean, creating a necklace of refueling and resupply stations from the South China Sea to the Suez Canal.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ostensibly commercial in nature,</strong> the ports potentially have military value, too, allowing China’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/world/asia/china-navy-aircraft-carrier-pacific.html" rel="nofollow">rapidly growing navy to</a> expand its reach.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Driving Iran to China</strong> and China’s taking advantage of Iran's distress are foreseeable outcomes to President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An on-the-ball</strong> foreign policy team would have gamed this out.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We haven’t had </strong>that team for over three years.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And even if we did, </strong>would President Trump have listened?</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A Look Back at 2010</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My appreciation to Bill Bishop</strong> and his ever-excellent newsletter, Sinocism, for alerting me to a 2010 WAPO piece by John Pomfret that illustrates the more things change, the more they stay the same.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Faced with a Chinese government</strong> increasingly intent on testing U.S. strength and capabilities, the United States unveiled&nbsp;<a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/checkpoint-washington/2010/07/clinton_wades_into_south_china.html" rel="nofollow">a new policy</a> that rejected China's claims to sovereignty over the whole South China Sea.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">and</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> the Obama administration continues to push China over Iran.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Or perhaps</strong> a better cliche is some things never change.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Learn more about</strong> all of these issues in the posts below.</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. ‘Ideologial Spiral’ [?]</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/62bfWq?track_p_id=7OXba4Y%408UQM1e_cwquesz%40" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/62bfWq?track_p_id=aTmjZzct1Wb8UQM1e_6g3sK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'U.S. and China, Caught in "Ideological Spiral," Drift Toward Cold War'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/62bfWq?track_p_id=3c%40c8UQM1e_bfVuCLIQb1Hz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Tejjs390-GHGen5ZxpIcxEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/62bfWq?track_p_id=3%40Ok8UQM1e_IUay3ZW6OwLN" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">U.S. and China, Caught in ‘Ideological Spiral,’ Drift Toward Cold War - The New York Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Steven Lee Myers&nbsp;and&nbsp;Paul Mozur</strong> | The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One by one, the United States has hit at the core tenets of Xi Jinping’s vision for a rising China ready to assume the mantle of superpower.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One by one,</strong> the United States has hit at the core tenets of Xi Jinping’s vision for a rising China ready to assume the mantle of superpower.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a matter of weeks,</strong> the Trump administration has imposed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/business/economy/us-halts-high-tech-exports-hong-kong.html" rel="nofollow">sanctions over punitive policies&nbsp;</a>in Hong Kong and China’s western region of Xinjiang.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It took new measures</strong> to suffocate Chinese innovation by cutting it off from American technology and pushing allies to look elsewhere.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then, on Monday,</strong> it&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-pompeo.html" rel="nofollow">tore up China’s claims&nbsp;</a>in the South China Sea, setting the stage for sharper confrontation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">[And now</strong> sanctions on Hong Kong.]</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With China&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/24/world/asia/china-hong-kong-taiwan.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">menacing vessels&nbsp;</strong></a>from Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia in the South China Sea, the United States dispatched two aircraft carriers through the waters last month in an aggressive show of strength.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Further brinkmanship</strong> appears inevitable now that the State Department has declared China’s claims there illegal.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry,</strong> Zhao Lijian, said on Tuesday that the American declaration would undermine regional peace and stability, asserting that China had controlled the islands in the sea “for thousands of years,” which is not true.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As he stated, the Republic of China</strong> — then controlled by the Nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek — only made a formal claim in 1948.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “China is committed</strong> to resolving territorial and jurisdictional disputes with directly related sovereign states through negotiations and consultations,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is not how</strong> its neighbors see things.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Japan warned this week</strong> that China was attempting to “alter the status quo in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It called China</strong> a more serious long-term threat than a nuclear-armed North Korea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.-China relationship</strong> is increasingly imbued with deep distrust and animosity, as well as the fraught tensions that come with two powers jockeying for primacy, especially in areas where their interests collide:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In cyberspace and outer space,</strong> in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/asia/taiwan-china-hong-kong.html" rel="nofollow">the Taiwan Strait&nbsp;</a>and the South China Sea, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/world/asia/china-iran-trade-military-deal.html" rel="nofollow">even in the Persian Gulf</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Michael A. McFaul,</strong> a former American ambassador to Russia, said China’s recent maneuvering appeared to be “overextended and overreaching,” likening it to one of the most fraught moments of the Cold War.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It does remind me of Khrushchev,”</strong> he said. “He’s lashing out, and suddenly he’s in a Cuban missile crisis with the U.S.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From Beijing’s perspective,</strong> it is the United States that has plunged relations to what China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said last week was their lowest point since the countries re-established diplomatic relations in 1979.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The current China policy</strong> of the United States is based on ill-informed strategic miscalculation and is fraught with emotions and whims and McCarthyist bigotry,” Mr. Wang said, evoking the Cold War himself to describe the current level of tensions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It seems as if every</strong> Chinese investment is politically driven, every Chinese student is a spy and every cooperation initiative is a scheme with a hidden agenda,” he added.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Trump and Hong Kong (and China)</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4mdCgi?track_p_id=07EEyx4_QSyooVOkFHj6b51" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/fpGU-wSZv6h37ihY1x6e3Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4mdCgi?track_p_id=4NnsV7EEyx4_lHkznlBD%403d" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump ends the Hong Kong's preferential status and prepares to imposes sanctions'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4mdCgi?track_p_id=43qr37EEyx4_EQ3nFImhARw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zPLW5saAeLvE6jn2EUvSwki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4mdCgi?track_p_id=3Jgs7EEyx4_mxXB3Y5pLe2a" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump ends the city’s preferential status'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Morning Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Hong Kong will now be treated the same as mainland China.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘US President Donald Trump</strong> took two actions against China in response to Beijing’s moves on Hong Kong on Tuesday:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Signing an executive order</strong> ending the city’s preferential trade treatment, and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Enacting a bill</strong> that would require sanctions against foreign individuals and banks for contributing to the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Hong Kong</strong> will now be treated the same as mainland China,” Trump said in a news conference in the Rose Garden at the White House.’ &nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “No special privileges,</strong> no special economic treatment, and no export of sensitive technologies.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump said the law</strong> gave his administration “powerful new tools to hold responsible the individuals and the entities involved in extinguishing Hong Kong’s freedom”.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The act requires</strong> “mandatory sanctions” against any foreign individual for “materially contributing” to the violation of China’s commitments to Hong Kong under the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law, the city’s mini-constitution.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘People targeted under the law</strong> would be barred from entering the US and lose control over any US-based assets.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sanctioned banks</strong> would also lose control of US-held assets, but would also be subjected to other punitive measures, including being prohibited from taking loans from any US institution and carrying out transactions that fall under American jurisdiction.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And</strong> much more.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidents-executive-order-hong-kong-normalization/"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a>the sweeping Executive Order.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8KbVLc?track_p_id=eXkHavOwooZSNBH8rVNba_q" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8KbVLc?track_p_id=2Ai8rVNba_BIP3NlhOSRCkV" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How Hong Kong Sanctions Could Threaten Wall Street'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8KbVLc?track_p_id=4ZXJ58rVNba_Q3Yuz1E4B2r" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/DoLZ2KYw9NGOOSv912UFAki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8KbVLc?track_p_id=eRu43NBTDo3HKHx8rVNba_u" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How Hong Kong Sanctions Could Threaten Wall Street</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., HSBC Holdings Plc and their peers face a threat to their massive expansion plans in China from a U.S. law that would sanction Chinese and Hong Kong officials involved in imposing a national security law on the former British colony.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., HSBC Holdings Plc</strong> and their peers face a threat to their massive expansion plans in China from a U.S. law that would sanction Chinese and Hong Kong officials involved in imposing a national security law on the former British colony.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The push</strong> by Wall Street and its European rivals for Chinese riches could be further imperiled should China retaliate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘What’s in the law?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It requires the State Department, </strong>in consultation with the Treasury, to report on and establish penalties for foreign persons and entities who have “materially” contributed to undermining Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” framework.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It gives the president</strong> the power to block assets and deny U.S. entry to those involved.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘How are banks drawn in?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The legislation</strong> allows for penalties on foreign financial institutions that knowingly do business with sanctioned individuals.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Big U.S. banks</strong> are at risk since their foreign subsidiaries may have Chinese officials, their relatives and associates as customers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Investment banks</strong> get a big chunk of their Chinese revenue from stock sales, financing for companies and big shareholders.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Commercial and retail banks</strong> in the U.S. could be even more exposed because most global transactions are done in U.S. dollars and flow through the U.S. banking system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The report on banks</strong> will be submitted after individuals are disclosed, giving lenders time to adjust.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘What are the penalties?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Banks singled out</strong> could face a cascade of sanctions, including a block on assets, restrictions on access to loans from U.S. institutions, bans on being a primary dealer in U.S. debt, conducting foreign exchange and banking transactions as well penalties on executives among others, according to the bill.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘What’s at stake?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The five big U.S. banks </strong>had a combined $71 billion of exposure to China in 2019, with JPMorgan clocking the biggest investment at $19 billion.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They now could also face the risk</strong> of a tit-for-tat if China chooses to retaliate, clouding their growth plans and threatening income they have generated over the years from advising giants such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Profits in China’s brokerage industry</strong> could hit $47 billion by 2026, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates, with foreign firms gunning for a considerable share.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Insurers, asset managers and commercial banks</strong> are also pushing into China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘How worried are they?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the U.S. has broad authority</strong> to impose penalties under the act, the initial fallout may be limited to the most senior Chinese officials since the U.S. is unlikely to take action that will significantly disrupt trade or hurt the global economy, according to estimates from bank executives who asked not to be identified discussing an internal analysis.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘What are banks doing now?</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Global banks</strong> are reviewing their client base to identify people who may be exposed to sanctions and looking over agreements to make sure that they have clauses that allow them to ditch customers without penalty.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Once the sanction list</strong> is released, banks will need to ensure they have effective procedures to cut ties with those individuals.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. ‘What about Chinese banks?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s biggest state-owned lenders,</strong> led by Industrial &amp; Commercial Bank of China Ltd., are the most exposed given their close ties to the country’s government officials.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Severing those links</strong> would be difficult, if not impossible. Chinese lenders have $1.1 trillion in dollar funding at stake, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">If they are sanctioned, the president can also ban U.S. investors from holding equity or debt in the lenders.’</li></ul><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can companies be sanctioned?’</strong></li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yes, sanctions</strong> would also apply to entities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A broad application to companies,</strong> especially ones that have a significant footprint in China or Hong Kong, would pose a greater risk to global banks because it can be harder to untangle those relationships.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Banks </strong>will likely be prohibited from doing business with a company that’s 50% or more controlled by a sanctioned individual, according to Office of Foreign Assets Control guidance.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">7. ‘What’s the timing?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Starting July 14,</strong> when President Donald Trump signed it, the State Department has 90 days to submit a report on whether any individuals or companies merit sanctions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reports on financial institutions</strong> must be submitted within 60 days after that. The president has the leeway to wait one year before imposing sanctions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">8. ‘How is China reacting?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It vowed</strong> to take strong countermeasures and sanction U.S. officials and entities over the Hong Kong law, without elaborating.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It urged the U.S.</strong> to “correct its wrongdoings” and to stop interfering in Hong Kong affairs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. U.S., China, South China Sea - Again</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6v6eVE?track_p_id=1V6qal70_bOdHXGybICAnGV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6v6eVE?track_p_id=dXdZD6CVo5D%403E6qal70_UO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'US rejects nearly all Chinese claims in South China Sea'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Vq2q1COCbHgFYufoTfk99Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6v6eVE?track_p_id=1g6qal70_WOqQ12sBVuYzy%40" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">US rejects nearly all Chinese claims in South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire.”</strong></em></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read Secretary Pompeo's full statement in #5, below</strong></em></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> escalated its actions against China on Monday by stepping squarely into one of the most sensitive regional issues dividing them and rejecting outright nearly all of Beijing’s significant maritime claims in the South China Sea.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration</strong> presented the decision as an attempt to curb China’s increasing assertiveness in the region with a commitment to recognizing international law.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it will almost certainly</strong> have the more immediate effect of further infuriating the Chinese, who are already retaliating against numerous U.S. sanctions and other penalties on other matters.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Previously,</strong> U.S. policy had been to insist that maritime disputes between China and its smaller neighbors be resolved peacefully through U.N.-backed arbitration.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in a statement</strong> released Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. now regards virtually all Chinese maritime claims outside its internationally recognized waters to be illegitimate.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The shift</strong> does not involve disputes over land features that are above sea level, which are considered to be “territorial” in nature.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The world will not allow Beijing</strong> to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire,” Pompeo said.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “America stands</strong> with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We stand</strong> with the international community in defense of freedom of the seas and respect for sovereignty and reject any push to impose ‘might makes right’ in the South China Sea or the wider region.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although the U.S.</strong> will continue to remain neutral in territorial disputes, the announcement means the administration is in effect siding with Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, all of which oppose Chinese assertions of sovereignty over maritime areas surrounding contested islands, reefs and shoals.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “There are clear cases</strong> where (China) is claiming sovereignty over areas that no country can lawfully claim,” the State Department said in a fact sheet that accompanied the statement.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a statement Monday night</strong> from its embassy in Washington, China accused the State Department of “deliberately distorting the facts and international law.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It added</strong> that the U.S. “exaggerates the situation in the region and attempts to sow discord between China and other littoral countries. The accusation is completely unjustified. The Chinese side is firmly opposed to it.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China also accused the U.S.</strong> of interfering in disputes in which it was not directly involved and “throwing its weight around in every sea of the world.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We advise the US side</strong> to earnestly honor its commitment of not taking sides on the issue of territorial sovereignty, respect regional countries’ efforts for a peaceful and stable South China Sea and stop its attempts to disrupt and sabotage regional peace and stability,” the embassy statement said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. announcement</strong> came a day after the fourth anniversary of a binding decision by an arbitration panel in favor of the Philippines that rejected China’s maritime claims around the Spratly Islands and neighboring reefs and shoals.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has refused</strong> to recognize that decision, which it has dismissed as a “sham,” and refused to participate in the arbitration proceedings.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has continued</strong> to defy the decision with aggressive actions that have brought it into territorial spats with Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia in recent years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, as a result,</strong> the administration says China has no valid maritime claims to the fish- and potentially energy-rich Scarborough Reef, Mischief Reef or Second Thomas Shoal.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. has repeatedly said</strong> that areas regarded to be part of the Philippines are covered by a U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty in the event of an attack on them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition to reiterating support</strong> for that decision, Pompeo said China cannot legally claim the James Shoal near Malaysia, waters surrounding the Vanguard Bank off Vietnam, the Luconia Shoals near Brunei and Natuna Besar off Indonesia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As such,</strong> it says the U.S. will regard any Chinese harassment of fishing vessels or oil exploration in those areas as unlawful.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zGXjM?track_p_id=aaE12%40WVIuU7vkpmY_GOzEX" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zGXjM?track_p_id=dShmMFoGXIwMaM7vkpmY_5I" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">What is the Impact of the New U.S. South China Sea Policy?&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/w304bacNMoFqYx4BYz_ZUTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zGXjM?track_p_id=aliVKNYXVbc7vkpmY_pKhsN" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/tKxYvyJJeCtYsPkkzGcimUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zGXjM?track_p_id=6H1gY2b7vkpmY_rGxHdye4p" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'What is the Impact of the New U.S. South China Sea Policy?'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gregory B. Poling</strong> | CSIS</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most immediate effect of this policy change will be on the diplomatic front.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: What impact will the new U.S. policy on the South China Sea have?</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A:&nbsp;‘This new rhetorical position</strong> won’t have much effect by itself.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But as the opening gambit</strong> in a long-term effort to impose cost on China and rally support for U.S. partners, it could be significant.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most immediate effect</strong> of this policy change will be on the diplomatic front.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is much easier</strong> to rally international support against “illegal” activity than against actions that are merely distasteful or destabilizing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is also much more damaging</strong> to a country that aspires to global leadership to be accused of gross violations of international law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. officials</strong> will likely begin working this stronger language into statements at international forums and putting pressure on partners and allies to do the same.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This can be expected</strong> not just at regional meetings like the East Asia Summit, but in bodies like the Quad, the Group of Seven, and various bilateral and trilateral meetings.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This might also encourage Southeast Asian claimants,</strong> particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, to advocate for themselves more forcefully.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The next time a China Coast Guard ship</strong> plays chicken with an oil rig off Vietnam or a flotilla of Chinese fishing boats appears in Indonesian waters, the United States will likely speak up more forcefully to decry the illegal action.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that will have</strong> a proportionately greater effect on China’s international reputation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This approach</strong> will likely extend beyond November, as any future administration will find it difficult to walk back this new rhetorical position.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Economic costs for China</strong> might also follow from this policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By declaring</strong> so much of China’s maritime activities illegal, the administration has provided a justification for potential sanctions against Chinese companies and entities that conduct them.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would involve</strong> a much wider and timelier set of potential targets than previously mooted U.S. sanctions legislation. Bills introduced in the Congress in 2017 and 2019 for example focused more narrowly on dredging, construction, and other activities on Chinese artificial islands.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘During his remarks at CSIS,</strong> Stilwell specifically directed attention at the role of Chinese state-owned enterprises engaged in illegal maritime activity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He declared,</strong> “We should also shine light on how these companies operate around the world, including across Southeast Asia and in the United States. In all our societies, citizens deserve to know the differences between commercial enterprises and instruments of foreign state power.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And when asked</strong> whether the new U.S. position might lead to sanctions against Chinese entities, the assistant secretary said that option is “on the table.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is significant</strong> congressional support for the new policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Within hours of its release,</strong> the chairs and ranking members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and House Foreign Affairs Committee issued a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/risch-menendez-engel-mccaul-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea-are-unlawful" rel="nofollow">bipartisan statement&nbsp;</a>endorsing the administration’s position.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> there will also be downsides to this policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will raise tensions</strong> between Beijing and Washington in the short term.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The next time China</strong> does engage in illegal harassment of its neighbors within their EEZs, a more forceful U.S. response might lead China to double down out of a sense of nationalism.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This seems especially</strong> likely amid the current pandemic, which has led Chinese diplomats to favor chest-thumping nationalism over de-escalation with its neighbors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the long term,</strong> if successfully couched within a broader policy combining pressure on Beijing and greater international coalition building to support Southeast Asian parties, it could help steer China toward a compromise that the international community could live with.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that ultimately</strong> is the best chance to peacefully manage the South China Sea disputes.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. China &amp; Iran: More Pearls on the String</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DGypM?track_p_id=6T3dW2C5SMpIs_GWU15ZY%40Z" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DGypM?track_p_id=3hpQ5SMpIs_DMnLqOgS56Ct" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/DJaBLhXZUpdu5laphSU62Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DGypM?track_p_id=2Ua5SMpIs_XbzUczI%40QtsNx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/T7FXA8rwREeGUnJrbehn-Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DGypM?track_p_id=2ky5SMpIs_l5Q3drnu3BcVx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">David E. Sanger </strong>| The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The draft agreement with Iran shows that unlike most countries, China feels it is in a position to defy the United States, powerful enough to withstand American penalties, as it has in the trade war waged by President Trump.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Iran and China</strong> have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The partnership,</strong> detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In exchange,</strong> China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The document </strong>also describes deepening military cooperation, potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the United States for decades.’’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It calls for</strong> joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing — all to fight “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If put into effect as detailed,</strong> the partnership would create new and potentially dangerous flash points in the deteriorating relationship between China and the United States.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It represents a major blow</strong> to the Trump administration’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-sanctions.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">aggressive policy toward Iran</a>&nbsp;since abandoning the nuclear deal reached in 2015 by President Barack Obama and the leaders of six other nations after two years of grueling negotiations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Renewed American sanctions,</strong> including the threat to cut off access to the international banking system for any company that does business in Iran, have succeeded in suffocating the Iranian economy by scaring away badly needed foreign trade and investment.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Tehran’s desperation</strong> has pushed it into the arms of China, which has the technology and appetite for oil that Iran needs.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Iran</strong> has been one of the world’s largest oil producers, but its exports, Tehran’s largest source of revenue, have plunged since the Trump administration began imposing sanctions in 2018; China gets about 75 percent of its oil from abroad and is the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43216" rel="nofollow">world’s largest importer</a>, at more than 10 million barrels a day last year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At a time when the United States</strong> is reeling from recession and the coronavirus, and increasingly isolated internationally, Beijing senses American weakness.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The draft agreement </strong>with Iran shows that unlike most countries, China feels it is in a position to defy the United States, powerful enough to withstand American penalties, as it has in the trade war waged by President Trump.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The projects</strong> — nearly 100 are cited in the draft agreement — are very much in keeping with Mr. Xi’s ambitions to extend its economic and strategic influence across Eurasia through the “Belt and Road Initiative,” a vast aid and investment program.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The projects,</strong> including airports, high-speed railways and subways, would touch the lives of millions of Iranians.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China would develop free-trade zones</strong> in Maku, in northwestern Iran; in Abadan, where the Shatt al-Arab river flows into the Persian Gulf, and on the gulf island Qeshm.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The agreement</strong> also includes proposals for China to build the infrastructure for a 5G telecommunications network, to offer the new Chinese Global Positioning System, Beidou, and to help Iranian authorities assert greater control over what circulates in cyberspace, presumably as China’s Great Firewall does.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7VRJ9U?track_p_id=9m3YJoYYa17DMnFe_nMmHjZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7VRJ9U?track_p_id=efvduMwKRxVJN667DMnFe_r" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Iran-China Deal: New Pearls on the String?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/lYiL7QYjItDU77z6jZjp8zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7VRJ9U?track_p_id=8KVY4bCGW7DMnFe_X%40fBq6d" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/T7FXA8rwREeGUnJrbehn-Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7VRJ9U?track_p_id=2AZ7DMnFe_iAlr5OO3NNRqP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Iran-China Deal: The Strategic Implications</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">David E. Sanger </strong>| The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A particular concern has been the proposed port facilities in Iran, including two along the coast of the Sea of Oman.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The expansion</strong> of military assistance, training and intelligence-sharing will also be viewed with alarm in Washington.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American warships</strong> already tangle regularly with Iranian forces in the crowded waters of the Persian Gulf and challenge China’s internationally disputed claim to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/us/politics/south-china-sea-aircraft-carrier.html" rel="nofollow">much of the South China Sea</a>, and the Pentagon’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/politics/military-china-russia-terrorism-focus.html" rel="nofollow">national security strategy</a>has declared China an adversary.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A particular concern</strong> has been the proposed port facilities in Iran, including two along the coast of the Sea of Oman.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One at Jask,</strong> just outside of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, would give the Chinese a strategic vantage point on the waters through which much of the world’s oil transits.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The passage</strong> is of critical strategic importance to the United States, whose Navy’s Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, in the gulf.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has already constructed a series of ports</strong> along the Indian Ocean, creating a necklace of refueling and resupply stations from the South China Sea to the Suez Canal. Ostensibly commercial in nature, the ports potentially have military value, too, allowing China’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/world/asia/china-navy-aircraft-carrier-pacific.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">rapidly growing navy</a>&nbsp;to expand its reach.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those include ports</strong> at Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan, which are widely criticized as footholds for a potential military presence, though no Chinese forces have officially been deployed at them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China opened</strong> its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2015, ostensibly to support its forces participating in international antipiracy operations off the coast of Somalia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The outpost,</strong> which began as a logistics base but is now more heavily fortified, is within miles of the American base in that country.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> has also stepped up military cooperation with Iran.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The People’s Liberation Army Navy</strong> has visited and participated in military exercises at least three times, beginning in 2014.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The most recent</strong> was last December, when a Chinese missile destroyer, the Xining, joined a naval exercise with the Russian and Iranian navies in the Gulf of Oman.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s state-owned Xinhua news agency</strong> quoted the commander of Iran’s Navy, Rear Adm. Hossein Khanzadi, saying that the exercise showed “the era of American invasions in the region is over.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6lx5Ye?track_p_id=1s6VxYf0_15bQErbLhHAQRF" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6lx5Ye?track_p_id=3PTa6VxYf0_5H5FnCNz61uU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China in the Gulf: A New Partnership with Iran?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6lx5Ye?track_p_id=55Y1Nl6VxYf0_v6b4yVG6sx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/8o_d9_P7weFNuwEctuFM-Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6lx5Ye?track_p_id=aPa4KWQJNY46VxYf0_KFnsb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China in the Gulf: A New Partnership with Iran?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="text-align: right;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Anthony H. Cordesman</strong> | CSIS</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is becoming evident that the U.S. will still face steadily growing strategic competition with China in the Gulf and other areas far beyond the South China Sea and Taiwan.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Turning to Iran</strong> would be a major shift for China in some ways.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So far,</strong> most Chinese petroleum imports have come from the Arab Gulf states – particularly after the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran after the Trump administration rejected the JCPOA nuclear agreement.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many analysts</strong> have felt that China would try to stay neutral as tensions rose between Iran and the Arab Gulf states, or would tilt toward the Arab states – which has more oil and gas, far more money, and do not face U.S. sanctions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The steadily</strong> growing tension between the United States and China may, however, have shifted China’s position.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These tensions</strong> include China’s growing confrontations with the U.S. over trade, Taiwan, and the South China Sea – confrontations exemplified by Secretary’s Pompeo’s statements on July 13 that China’s maritime claims were illegal.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These tensions</strong> have also reached the point where the U.S. and Chinese military postures in the entire region from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, and then through the Indian Ocean to the Gulf region, have steadily become source of competition.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So have</strong> Chinese and U.S. military exercises, reconnaissance flights, and combat ships.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Talk about cooperation</strong> has become steadily hollower.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new U.S. strategy</strong> announced in 2017 singled out China and Russia as the major potential threats to the U.S.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And China</strong> has recently joined Russia in actively opposing the renewal of the UN arms embargo on Iran.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These developments</strong> may explain why China would now sign an agreement with Iran,’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Particularly</strong> if it feels the end result will be to push the Arab Gulf states – which are increasingly concerned about U.S. willingness to stay in the region and engage in any major military action – into courting Beijing rather than react in a hostile way.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China may well feel</strong> it can play the Iran card against the U.S. with minimal risk and still play both Iran and its Arab neighbors off against each other.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It may also see</strong> making Iran dependent on China as posing only a limited risk that China will become directly involved in any Iranian conflict with the U.S. or its neighbors.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China may well feel</strong> it can benefit from a “spoiler” role, or even from moderating Iranian and Arab tension, at the cost of the United States.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is becoming evident</strong> that the U.S. will still face steadily growing strategic competition with China in the Gulf and other areas far beyond the South China Sea and Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also is becoming increasingly clear</strong> that the U.S. cannot count on its Arab strategic partners unless it shows it will stay in the Gulf and be a real partner – rather than repeatedly threatening to leave and quarreling over burden sharing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Equally important,</strong> Iran may have an option for dealing with sanctions and arms imports that U.S. policymakers have not properly considered – and one where Russia could play a role as well.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Furthermore,</strong> it is clear the scale of U.S. and Chinese competition will continue to expand.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Competing</strong> with China and Russia now means civil and military competition on a global basis, not simply building up U.S. military forces to deal with the forces of the other two major powers.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. Go Deep in the South China Sea</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nbdTc?track_p_id=2BX5K4KnW_3o341vZTPaHvM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/W9uHoPsDkHBHGFX0VtAecUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nbdTc?track_p_id=bycu3roZmamv5K4KnW_dD15" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nbdTc?track_p_id=buEvXZBMJx3y5K4KnW_3AnP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/W9uHoPsDkHBHGFX0VtAecUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nbdTc?track_p_id=dzTGTWDcaGaX445K4KnW_%40b" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">United States Department of State</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Pompeo</strong> | Secretary of State</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We are making clear: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them."</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read Secretary Pompeo's full statement in #5, below</strong></em></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States champions</strong> a free and open Indo-Pacific.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today</strong> we are strengthening U.S. policy in a vital, contentious part of that region — the South China Sea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are making clear:</strong> Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the South China Sea,</strong> we seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law, maintain the unimpeded flow of commerce, and oppose&nbsp;any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We share</strong> these deep and abiding interests with our many allies and partners who have long endorsed a rules-based international order.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These shared interests</strong> have come under unprecedented threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing uses intimidation</strong> to undermine the sovereign rights of Southeast Asian coastal states in the South China Sea, bully them out of offshore resources, assert unilateral dominion, and replace international law with “might makes right.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s approach</strong> has been clear for years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2010,</strong> then-PRC Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told his ASEAN counterparts that “China is a big country and other countries are small countries and that is just a fact.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PRC’s predatory world view</strong> has no place in the 21st century.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PRC has no legal grounds</strong> to unilaterally impose its will on the region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing has offered</strong> no coherent legal basis for its “Nine-Dashed Line” claim in the South China Sea since formally announcing it in 2009.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a unanimous decision</strong> on July 12, 2016, an Arbitral Tribunal constituted under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention – to which the PRC is a state party – rejected the PRC’s maritime claims as having no basis in international law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Tribunal</strong> sided squarely with the Philippines, which brought the arbitration case, on almost all claims.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the United States</strong> has previously stated, and as specifically provided in the Convention, the Arbitral Tribunal’s decision is final and legally binding on both parties. Today we are aligning the U.S. position on the PRC’s maritime claims in the SCS with the Tribunal’s decision. Specifically:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PRC cannot lawfully assert a maritime claim</strong> – including any Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) claims derived from Scarborough Reef and the Spratly Islands – vis-a-vis the Philippines in areas that the Tribunal found to be in the Philippines’ EEZ or on its continental shelf.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s harassment</strong> of Philippine fisheries and offshore energy development within those areas is unlawful, as are any unilateral PRC actions to exploit those resources.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In line with the Tribunal’s legally binding decision,</strong> the PRC has no lawful territorial or maritime claim to Mischief Reef or Second Thomas Shoal, both of which fall fully under the Philippines’ sovereign rights and jurisdiction, nor does Beijing have any territorial or maritime claims generated from these features.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Beijing has failed</strong> to put forth a lawful, coherent maritime claim in the South China Sea, the United States rejects any PRC claim to waters beyond a 12-nautical mile territorial sea derived from islands it claims in the Spratly Islands (without prejudice to other states’ sovereignty claims over such islands).’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As such, the United States rejects</strong> any PRC maritime claim in the waters surrounding Vanguard Bank (off Vietnam), Luconia Shoals (off Malaysia), waters in Brunei’s EEZ, and Natuna Besar (off Indonesia).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Any PRC action</strong> to harass other states’ fishing or hydrocarbon development in these waters – or to carry out such activities unilaterally – is unlawful.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PRC has no lawful territorial or maritime claim</strong> to (or derived from) James Shoal, an entirely submerged feature only 50 nautical miles from Malaysia and some 1,000 nautical miles from China’s coast.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘James Shoal</strong> is often cited in PRC propaganda as the “southernmost territory of China.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘International law is clear:</strong> An underwater feature like&nbsp;James Shoal cannot be claimed by any state and is incapable of generating maritime zones.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘James Shoal</strong> (roughly 20 meters below the surface) is not and never was PRC territory, nor can Beijing assert any lawful maritime rights from it.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world will not allow Beijing</strong> to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America stands</strong> with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We stand</strong> with the international community in defense of freedom of the seas and respect for sovereignty and reject any push to impose “might makes right” in the South China Sea or the wider region.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/85lxnk?track_p_id=dp1FotBYOsBfp369EWze_5b" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_dtuKVurEGLizgw0xscn0ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/85lxnk?track_p_id=2aW69EWze_3EZYS%40gXfOL%40k" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Experts on Pompeo &amp; the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/85lxnk?track_p_id=7Xdypnql69EWze_GQiWUXCx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Experts on Pompeo &amp; the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Expert reactions</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“What is new is that Trump has sort of made the South China Sea a new focus point for his confrontation with China.”</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Western Experts</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The State Department,</strong> I think, was just looking for ways that we can more forcefully act and speak out in support of the smaller claimants who are getting bullied by China,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-pompeo.html?action=click&amp;module=RelatedLinks&amp;pgtype=Article" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said Bonnie S. Glaser</a>, a senior director for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “And I think</strong> that comes across loud and clear in the statements. It’s all about supporting the actions of countries to fish and explore energy in maritime spaces that China has claimed.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The ‘new stance would</strong> “enable the US to push back more forcefully against Chinese harassment of other claimants who seek to fish and exploit energy in what China illegally claims as its waters”, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5d9c5dd4-5af4-4f03-8794-dffa8988fb8a#myft:my-news:page" rel="nofollow">she said.</a>'</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Daniel Markey,</strong> senior research professor in international relations at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said the statement likely came in response to "fairly aggressive Chinese actions throughout Asia, including in the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and along the contested border with India." ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The aim is mainly</strong> "to show the region -- including Beijing -- that the U.S. is not so distracted or hobbled by the pandemic that it cannot recognize and respond to Chinese nibbling," he said.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "This is basically</strong> the first time we have called it illegitimate," <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/us-rejects-china-s-resource-claims-in-south-china-sea-20200714-p55btb" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said Chris Johnson</a>, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘It's "fine to put out a statement, but what you going to do about it?" ’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Collin Koh,</strong> a research fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3093057/beijing-accuses-us-stirring-division-over-south-china-sea" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said</a> Beijing may step up measures to challenge US military activities in the contested waters.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This could potentially result</strong> in a heightened risk of incidents – even if not premeditated, but inadvertent in nature – in the South China Sea that could raise tensions and inflame the situation,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Daniel Russel,</strong> the assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific in the second Obama term, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-pompeo.html?action=click&amp;module=RelatedLinks&amp;pgtype=Article" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said</a> that the Obama administration had accepted the tribunal’s 2016 ruling as “final and binding.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Pompeo’s statement</strong> is more “chest-pounding and angry invective about China” than a change in policy.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘James Chin,</strong> head of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania in Australia, said the U.S. stance was nothing new because it has always rejected China’s “nine-dash line,” as its claim to the South China Sea is known.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘ “What is new is that Trump has sort of made the South China Sea a new focus point for his confrontation with China,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Derek Grossman,</strong> senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp., <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/Asia-greets-US-shift-on-South-China-Sea-with-hope-and-doubt" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said</a> Southeast Asian maritime counterclaimants in the South China Sea will likely take the U.S. policy shift in different ways.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Vietnam and the Philippines </strong>will probably embrace the move as they have bore the brunt of Beijing's excessive and overlapping claims," he said.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "However, Malaysia and Brunei</strong> may be less keen to the development as they have sought to keep relations with both the U.S. and China on an even keel amid increasing great-power competition." ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Although Indonesia</strong> is not an official counterclaimant in the South China Sea, it has nevertheless become the target in recent years, and particularly in the last few months, of Chinese pressure at the Natunas Islands," he said. "My bet is that it won't want to rock the boat much either as it benefits significantly from China's Belt and Road Initiative and has been able to manage tensions around the Natunas." ’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given a choice,</strong> "Southeast Asian states do not want to choose between the U.S. and China," <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/Asia-greets-US-shift-on-South-China-Sea-with-hope-and-doubt" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said Taylor Fravel</a>, professor of political science and director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "But they also want</strong> to be able to assert their maritime claims and jurisdiction." ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The statement</strong> may create an expectation among other claimants that the United States may take actions to defend their claims, but the statement itself creates no such obligation, only an expectation,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chinese Experts</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hu Bo,</strong> director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Peking University think tank, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3093184/us-south-china-sea-stand-new-no-surprise-analysts-say" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">said</a> the US comments were meant to be divisive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The purpose of this statement is obvious,</strong> which is to drive wedges between China and other claimants,” Hu said.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chen Xiangmiao,</strong> an assistant research fellow with Hainan-based think tank the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Pompeo’s remarks signalled that the US had chosen a side.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The US position is very clear,”</strong><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3093057/beijing-accuses-us-stirring-division-over-south-china-sea" rel="nofollow">Chen said</a>. “If we used to say that the US didn’t take sides over sovereignty disputes, now this statement has denied China’s territorial claims, which means that the contest between China and the US over the South China Sea is close to a new Cold War.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the statement,</strong> Pompeo said the US “stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources” – a remark Chen from the Hainan think tank said hit a raw nerve for China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8NwI7s?track_p_id=aJ3DQiyeIjr53FbLC_ySUf3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_dtuKVurEGLizgw0xscn0ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8NwI7s?track_p_id=3u3H53FbLC_aQ3YiHyPUzr5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Five Great Resources on Disputes in the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8NwI7s?track_p_id=8snkckJ6X53FbLC_hwWP3jW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Five Great Resources on Disputes in the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong>Five Great Resources on Disputes in the South China Sea</strong></p><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/" rel="nofollow">‘How much trade transits the South China Sea?’</a></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eqtl0ym1p8" rel="nofollow">‘The South China Sea dispute explained’</a></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/interactives/chinas-maritime-disputes#!/chinas-maritime-disputes" rel="nofollow">‘China’s Maritime Disputes’</a></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" rel="nofollow">‘Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea’</a></li></ul><p style="margin: 0;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/report/military-confrontation-south-china-sea" rel="nofollow">‘Military Confrontation in the South China Sea’</a></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">6. A Look Back to 2010</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6cwKB6?track_p_id=6Alatbr5NcJvK_zzZDN3R13" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6cwKB6?track_p_id=bos1V5K36JR25NcJvK_Fbu6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2010 | 'U.S. takes a tougher tone with China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6cwKB6?track_p_id=bgXR4WHksE5W5NcJvK_XPRj" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2010 | U.S. takes a tougher tone with China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">John Pomfret</strong> | Washington Post</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Friday, July 30, 2010</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Translated, it meant that China's claims to the whole sea were "invalid," said a senior administration official, because it doesn't have any people living on the scores of rocks and atolls that it says belong to China.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Obama administration</strong> has adopted a tougher tone with&nbsp;<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/countries/china.html?nav=el" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">China</a>&nbsp;in recent weeks as part of a diplomatic balancing act in which the United States welcomes China's rise in some areas but also confronts Beijing when it butts up against American interests.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Faced with a Chinese government</strong> increasingly intent on testing U.S. strength and capabilities, the United States unveiled&nbsp;<a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/checkpoint-washington/2010/07/clinton_wades_into_south_china.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">a new policy</a>&nbsp;that rejected China's claims to sovereignty over the whole South China Sea.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/14/AR2010071405675.html" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">rebuffed&nbsp;</strong></a>Chinese demands that the U.S. military end its longtime policy of conducting military exercises in the Yellow Sea.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it is&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gMWnTNi2WvELwNz8MqRXYBYmK9dQD9H8S7J00" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">putting new pressure&nbsp;</strong></a>on Beijing not to increase its energy investments in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/countries/iran.html?nav=el" rel="nofollow">Iran</a>&nbsp;as Western firms leave.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The decision to confront China</strong> on the South China Sea dates back several months, after administration officials noticed that the sea -- an international waterway through which more than 50 percent of the world's merchant fleet tonnage passes each year -- had crept into the standard diplomatic pitter-patter about China's "core interests."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In March,</strong> Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Cui Tiankai told two senior U.S. officials that China now views its claims to the 1.3 million-square-mile sea on par with its claims to Tibet and Taiwan, an island that China says belongs to Beijing.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> Southeast Asian nations had informed the United States that they, too, were uncomfortable with China's pressure on countries and companies interested in exploring for gas and other minerals in the sea.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China had warned Exxon Mobil and BP</strong> to stop explorations in offshore areas near Vietnam.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It had also begun</strong> routinely arresting or harassing fishing vessels from other countries, according to sources from the region.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. response</strong> was unveiled July 23 in Hanoi when 12 nations -- Vietnam as the first and the United States as the last -- raised the issue of the South China Sea at an annual security forum of the Association of South East Asian Nations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Calling freedom of navigation</strong> on the sea a U.S. "national interest," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton&nbsp;<a href="http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/07/145095.htm" rel="nofollow">offered</a> to facilitate moves to create a code of conduct in the region.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And then she said:</strong> "Legitimate claims to maritime space in the South China Sea should be derived solely from legitimate claims to land features."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Translated,</strong> it meant that China's claims to the whole sea were "invalid," said a senior administration official, because it doesn't have any people living on the scores of rocks and atolls that it says belong to China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign Minister Yang</strong> reacted by saying”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "China is a big country</strong> and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> the Obama administration continues to push China over Iran.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> won Beijing's support for enhanced U.N. sanctions on Iran in June after Tehran's refusal to halt its program to enrich uranium.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As part of the deal,</strong> the sanctions were kept relatively weak, and China, which has substantial investments in Iran's energy sector and is Iran's third-largest oil customer, was exempted from many of them.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ But now U.S. officials </strong>are concerned that as Western countries enact additional sanctions on Iran -- the United States, Canada and the European Union have all slapped on more in recent weeks -- Chinese state-owned energy firms will step in as Western and Japanese investments dry up, negating any possible effect of the measures.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "We're not done on Iran,"</strong> said the senior administration official. "We are looking for maximum Chinese restraint."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 11, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5O1M6i?track_p_id=bbKTIjUiSwkR6U8FRe_xB%40G" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5O1M6i?track_p_id=7t3q5CUF6U8FRe_5EHeGzYd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong: Crossroads of Asia and the U.S.-China Tech War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5O1M6i?track_p_id=1C6U8FRe_JgqbJbQ%40FNfLNh" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5O1M6i?track_p_id=dCz5vDp3SlXKVU6U8FRe_gJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not a lot </strong>of China news this week. But there was a bumper crop of analyses that take a look at the bigger picture of:</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Why the U.S.’s position</strong> in Asia has been eroding.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S.-China tech cold war</strong> – and how the split is more complicated than reporting on individual events makes it seem.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How the tech cold</strong> has arrived in Hong Kong with National Security Law, putting U.S. tech giants, like Facebook and Google in the middle with not good options.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s industrial policy</strong> as it applies to the medical supplies industry – masks, ventilators, and the like - and why that application of policy will make it difficult for foreign firms to compete, ever.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Why China’s industrial policy </strong>regime is not a bad thing so long as it’s not predatory, and why the aims of the current push in the U.S. for its own industrial policy are misguided – but not the push itself.</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because these are explainers, </strong>I’ve excerpted a lot more than usual – there’s a lot to cover in each one, so a lot to read.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But all</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the posts</strong> are worth the time.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even better:</strong> click on the title of each post and read the whole essay.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here’s a summary</strong> what’s to follow:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'How Trump is losing Asia.’</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Robert Kaplan</strong> has produced an excellent summary of how U.S. missteps have eroded the U.S. position in Asia.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Asian nations to align with the United States</strong> in the face of China’s immovable presence has always required faith in the word and commitment of the United States to this vast region.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But for the first time since World War II,</strong> a U.S. president&nbsp;has shaken that faith to its core.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He puts the blame</strong> on President Trump – and he is certainly culpable.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the problem </strong>precedes him.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">S. focus</strong> on the Middle East, and the war on terror, and the wars in Iraq and Afganistan took America’s eye off Asia.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China took advantage of this </strong>(see the South China Sea, for example).</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And now the U.S</strong>. has a lot of work ahead to repair our status and alliances in Asia – if it has the wisdom and the will.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That there is still room </strong>to make those repairs:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the United States</strong> is half a world distant from Asia, China is Asia’s geographical, demographic, economic and military organizing principle.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Asians simply</strong> cannot escape the Chinese.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is now tethering </strong>the United States’ Asian allies to Washington is less confidence in the United States than outright fear of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Well,</strong> it’s a start.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'The tech cold war is hotting up: the Sino-American tech split.’</strong></span>&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Of the many analyses</strong> of the tech conflict between the U.S. and China, this from The Economist packs the most in a small space.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the&nbsp;past few years</strong> countless predictions have been made that the global technology industry will suffer a painful rupture because of tensions between America and China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Real damage</strong> has been surprisingly hard to spot.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet if you examine the events</strong> of the past two weeks you can sense the split that is about to come.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The split</strong> is happening at two velocities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The American and Chinese</strong> software and internet universes are heading at light-speed towards total separation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hardware</strong> is moving much more slowly. That is because it is more globally integrated and involves $1trn of physical plant and $400bn of inventories.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The tech split is under way.</strong> Do not assume it will happen safely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Developing story</strong> – stay tuned.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'Hong Kong Security Law Sets Stage for Global Internet Fight.</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b">’&nbsp;</span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An example</strong> of the U.S.-China tech war - now erupting in Hong Kong.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Hong Kong grapples</strong> with a draconian&nbsp;new security law, the tiny territory is emerging as the front line in a global fight between the United States and China over censorship, surveillance and the future of the internet,’ writes Dan Mozur of The New York Times.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Caught in the middle</strong> are the city’s seven million residents, online records of rollicking political debate — some of which may now be illegal — and the world’s largest internet companies, which host, and by extension guard, that data.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A standoff</strong> is already brewing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many big tech companies,</strong> including Facebook, Google, Twitter,&nbsp;Zoom&nbsp;and&nbsp;LinkedIn, have said in the past two days that they would temporarily stop complying with requests for user data from the Hong Kong authorities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Hong Kong government,</strong> in turn, has made it clear that the penalty for noncompliance with the law could include jail time for company employees.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law</strong> could also punish the company with fines, equipment seizures and arrests if it again declines such requests.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Though U.S. internet companies</strong> still earn billions of dollars in Chinese ad revenue, a decision to go along with the Hong Kong rules would risk the ire of Washington, where there has been bipartisan condemnation of the security law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Either way,</strong> one more battlefield of Sino-U.S. tech war.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And another indicator</strong> of the tech split.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. 'Why China Dominates Medical Supplies in This Outbreak – and Will in the Next Too.'</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keith Bradsher</strong> of The New York Times has written what is essentially a terrific case study of China’s medical supply industry that shows its industrial policy in action.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">And he sets forth a number of specific examples of Chinese government assistance – all the things the U.S. and its allies complain about.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has laid the groundwork</strong> to dominate the market for protective and medical supplies for years to come.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Factory owners</strong> get cheap land, courtesy of the Chinese government.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Loans and subsidies</strong> are plentiful.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese hospitals</strong> are often told to buy locally, giving China’s suppliers a vast and captive market.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s grip on the market</strong> is a testament to its drive to dominate important cogs in the global industrial machine.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For years,</strong> China’s leaders have worried that the country depended too much on foreign sources for everything from medical supplies to microchips to airliners.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has used subsidies,</strong> economic targets and other government inducements to emerge as a powerhouse in those important industries.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The policies</strong> have often proved effective in building industries that can withstand losses and tough foreign competition.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And which are often</strong> seen as unfair competitive practices for just those reasons.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In short,</strong> reshoring medical supply manufacturing is going to a lot tougher than anyone thinks.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. 'China as Economic Bogeyman.’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dani Rodrik</strong> of the Harvard Kennedy School quotes from the NYT reporting (above) on China’s medical supplies industry, which seems to have inspired his essay.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As I read his piece, </strong>he argues that when it isn’t predatory, China’s industrial policy is a good thing for China and the world.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If one-half of China’s economic miracle</strong> reflects its turn to markets after the late 1970s, the other half is the result of active government policies that protected old economic structures – such as state enterprises – while new industries were spawned through a wide array of industrial policies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese people</strong> were the main beneficiaries, of course, experiencing the fastest poverty reduction in history.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But these gains</strong> did not come at the expense of the rest of the world. Far from it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The growth policies</strong> that today arouse other countries’ ire are the reason China has become such a large market for Western exporters and investors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Chinese policymakers</strong> effectively targeted activities where social benefits exceed private benefits, producing improved economic performance, then it is not clear why foreigners should complain.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is especially true</strong> when the externality in question is a global one, as in the case of climate change.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese subsidies</strong> for solar panels and wind turbines have produced a decline in the cost of renewable energy – an enormous benefit for the rest of the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That’s great </strong>for the world, I guess.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But if in conveying this public good,</strong> China does so in a way hampers other countries from developing its own solar and wind industries, is that fair?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sounds more like</strong> a rationalization for than a defense.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He ends</strong> by pointing to an issue I am watching closely: the debate about whether the U.S. should have an industrial policy and, if so, in what form.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is now broad political agreement</strong> in the US political spectrum that the country needs a more explicit industrial policy targeting good jobs, innovation, and a green economy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Much of the new push for industrial policy</strong> in the US and Europe is motivated by the perceived Chinese “threat.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The objective</strong> should be to build more productive, more inclusive economies at home – not simply to outcompete China or try to undercut its economic progress.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That may be so.</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But I don’t why</strong> we can’t be more productive and at the same time outcompete China.</li></ul><h2 style="display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7EOsNc?track_p_id=8MXNFCkfk8J6KAI_Qz6YCiU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7EOsNc?track_p_id=2hz8J6KAI_kMDA4zA1sKbtg" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How Trump is losing Asia'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/PonZP9447tm-U3uAwJGzIDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7EOsNc?track_p_id=ahl6D6riKLV8J6KAI_jrz36" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/7AJzymxvvtVx317G0UZ-HEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7EOsNc?track_p_id=6sOXSSI8J6KAI_uuNShLcKM" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How Trump is losing Asia'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Robert D. Kaplan</strong> | Foreign Policy Research Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is now tethering the United States’ Asian allies to Washington is less confidence in the United States than outright fear of China.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-defence-nimitz/u-s-navy-carriers-conduct-south-china-sea-drills-as-chinese-ships-watch-idUSKBN2470UT" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">has dispatched</a>&nbsp;two aircraft carrier strike groups to the South China Sea to contest China’s creeping annexation of the maritime region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is one</strong> of the bluntest expressions of U.S. hard power in years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the very fact</strong> that such a dramatic step was even necessary indicates how the power balance is shifting in China’s favor.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/us-carriers-drill-after-southeast-asian-nations-rebuke-china/2020/06/29/28a2ce7e-b9dd-11ea-97c1-6cf116ffe26c_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_5" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">long-term and methodical attempt to dominate shoals and islands</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>in the region is a reflection of both U.S. domestic distractions and its loss of prestige throughout Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the United States</strong> is half a world distant from Asia, China is Asia’s geographical, demographic, economic and military organizing principle.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Asians simply</strong> cannot escape the Chinese.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For them to align with the United States</strong> in the face of China’s immovable presence has always required faith in the word and commitment of the United States to this vast region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But for the first time since World War II,</strong> a U.S. president&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/18/trump-shakedowns-are-threatening-two-key-u-s-alliances-in-asia/" rel="nofollow">has shaken that faith to its core</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Donald Trump</strong> began his presidency&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/27/trumps-foreign-policy-doctrine-withdrawal-doctrine/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">by abrogating the Trans-Pacific Partnership</a>, the years-in-the-making trade, investment and political cornerstone of a U.S.-led liberal order in Asia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump tore up</strong> this historic framework in the face of China’s own grand strategy for Eurasia: the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/power-tussle-in-nepal-ruling-party-as-china-influence-grows/2020/07/08/b421f6e4-c0fb-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_9" rel="nofollow">Belt and Road Initiative</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While China was promoting a vision,</strong> however imperfect and coercive, the United States deliberately has had nothing to offer.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It gets worse.’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The basis of Asian security</strong> since World War II has been the United States-Japan treaty alliance.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By anchoring the United States</strong> to Asia’s second-strongest nation, Washington elegantly contained Beijing, allowing states from Japan south to Australia to get rich off China’s economic growth, while the United States provided for their security.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No nation</strong> had to choose between the United States and China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And no nation</strong> had to fear Japanese militarism ever again.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet, since before he was inaugurated,</strong> Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/06/90ab4fcc1d28-focus-bolton-memoir-raises-concern-over-japan-alliance-if-trump-re-elected.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">has questioned the very foundation</a>&nbsp;of the treaty alliance: providing for Japan’s defense.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has terrified the Japanese,</strong> and the region, to a degree unprecedented in the post-World War II era.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States’ standing in Japan</strong> and the region has been demonstrably weakened.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,</strong> Japan&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/20/south-korea-is-one-most-loyal-us-allies-now-were-being-bullied-by-trump/?itid=lk_inline_manual_15" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">has been mired in a vicious trade war</a>&nbsp;with South Korea for a year now — a conflict that has its origins in contentious World War II history.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another administration</strong> might have dispatched an assistant secretary of state to Tokyo and Seoul to conduct vigorous shuttle diplomacy in order to quickly extinguish the issue and repair the alliance.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Trump administration</strong> has done relatively little.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is now a feeling of exposure</strong> and loneliness among the United States’ Asian allies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the first time</strong> since President Richard M. Nixon went to China in 1972, the United States’ bilateral relationship with China is both hostile and unpredictable, even as Washington has provided its friends in the region with less reassurance than at any time since the Korean War 70 years ago.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/whats-happening-in-xinjiang-is-genocide/2020/07/06/cde3f9da-bfaa-11ea-9fdd-b7ac6b051dc8_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_19" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">pulverizing repression of the Turkic Muslim Uighurs</strong></a>&nbsp;in Xinjiang province, followed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/03/chinas-national-security-law-hong-kong-doubles-down-imperialism/?itid=lk_inline_manual_19" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">its security crackdown in Hong Kong</a>&nbsp;and its continued aggression in the South China Sea, suggests that Taiwan may be next in Beijing’s sights — as a nation bordering the South China Sea and the only part of historic China yet to be forcibly brought to heel.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan,</strong> like West Berlin during the Cold War, is an outpost of freedom in stark opposition to the authoritarian mainland. Its symbolism should not be underestimated.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Were Taiwan’s independence</strong> ever compromised, it would signal the end of the United States’ preeminent influence not only in Asia but far beyond.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan</strong> is not about to be invaded by China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Yet it is unclear</strong> how much it can rely on the United States in a crisis. Alliances depend on deterrence.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deterrence, in turn,</strong> rests on an unshakable moral commitment to a common strategy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet we are witnessing</strong> unprecedented Chinese aggression coupled with unprecedented doubts about U.S. intentions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than lead an alliance,</strong> Trump has emerged as merely a transactor for whom nothing is sacred.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will take</strong> more than two aircraft carriers to repair this impression and the damage it has caused.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is now tethering</strong> the United States’ Asian allies to Washington is less confidence in the United States than outright fear of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if this situation</strong> goes on, what may start to emerge is a creeping&nbsp;<a href="https://www.historytoday.com/archive/finland-and-finlandization" rel="nofollow">Finlandization</a>, in which the United States’ erstwhile Asian allies are careful not to interfere with Beijing’s objectives, while they continue to pay lip service to Washington.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Like the case</strong> with Soviet influence over Finland during the Cold War, their foreign policies will no longer be wholly independent.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consider Vietnam,</strong> which has both a land border with China and a bloody history with it. Vietnam’s vulnerable geography makes it prone to greater Chinese influence were Trump to become even more unreliable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The case is similar</strong> with the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We can never</strong> take these countries for granted.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is all about geography:</strong> China’s very size and proximity make a sturdy and unquestioning U.S. regional order essential for the power balance in Asia.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. The Sino-U.S.Tech Split</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/jOSrak3IEnU1qn1ftIvMbTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WZChk?track_p_id=5Jdpff73pa6I_I13d1HYtN%40" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WZChk?track_p_id=073pa6I_T5lx31uV6IIYwI5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The tech cold war is hotting up: the Sino-American tech split'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WZChk?track_p_id=eU2G6HV%40ERRYEr473pa6I_F" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4XqXl3fB2CU8K63MfiCTpUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WZChk?track_p_id=2MV73pa6I_WoUtsQ3SW1IR6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The tech cold war is hotting up: the Sino-American tech split&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The tech split is under way. Do not assume it will happen safely.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the&nbsp;past few years</strong> countless predictions have been made that the global technology industry will suffer a painful rupture because of tensions between America and China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Real damage</strong> has been surprisingly hard to spot.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year Apple</strong> made over $100m of sales a day in China, while Huawei reported record revenues despite America’s campaign to cripple it. Investors have piled into tech companies’ shares, buoyed by the prospect of new technologies such as&nbsp;5g&nbsp;and a pandemic that is forcing billions of customers to spend more time and money online.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Judged by sales, profits and shareholder returns,</strong> it has been a golden era for American and Chinese tech.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The industry</strong> now has a colossal market capitalisation of $20trn and accounts for a quarter of the world’s stockmarket value.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet if you examine the events</strong> of the past two weeks you can sense the split that is about to come.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On July 6th Mike Pompeo,</strong> America’s secretary of state, said that the administration was considering banning TikTok, a Chinese-run app that is wildly popular in the West.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This followed India’s decision</strong> a week earlier to prohibit it, and 58 other Chinese apps, after lethal brawls between soldiers in the Himalayas.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Britain and France</strong> are considering sidelining Huawei from their&nbsp;5g networks (see&nbsp;<a href="https://www.economist.com/node/21789097" rel="nofollow">article</a>).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Between July 6th and 7th</strong> Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter all said that they will stop co-operating with Hong Kong’s authorities for the time being, because of the introduction of China’s brutal security law there.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And&nbsp;smic,</strong> China’s aspiring semiconductor champion, has just said that it will raise $7bn in a state-supported listing in Shanghai—it delisted from New York last year (see&nbsp;<a href="https://www.economist.com/node/21789109" rel="nofollow">article</a>). The proceeds will be used to supersize China’s home-grown chipmaking capacity.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The split</strong> is happening at two velocities’: software &amp; internet and hardware.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Software &amp; Internet</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The American and Chinese</strong> software and internet universes are heading at light-speed towards total separation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They were never particularly connected</strong>—American software firms made just 3% of their sales in China last year, and China has long kept its internet users isolated from the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bill for shutting up shop</strong> and finding substitute products is usually low.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘TikTok</strong> creates few jobs and pays little or no tax in America or India, so the main cost of banning it is sullen teenagers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Likewise,</strong> Facebook and the other firms taking a stand in Hong Kong do little or no business in China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Two important exceptions</strong> have been Microsoft’s office software and, especially, Google’s system of apps like&nbsp;gmail and Maps, found on Chinese-made phones sold worldwide.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s blacklisting of Huawei</strong> has cut off the world’s second-biggest phone seller from some of the world’s most popular apps.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese handset firms</strong> are racing to develop an alternative.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The American and Chinese</strong> software worlds are thus quickly becoming entirely separate universes.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hardware</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hardware</strong> is moving much more slowly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is because</strong> it is more globally integrated and involves $1trn of physical plant and $400bn of inventories.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Later this year</strong> Apple will launch a new&nbsp;5g handset that will still rely on the same vast manufacturing cluster in China that it used five years ago.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even so,</strong> the techtonic plates are shifting.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Because of a new set</strong> of American restrictions on the use of chipmaking tools put in place in May, Huawei may run out of stock of its specialist chips in early 2021 and will have to scramble to find an alternative.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That will be</strong> cumbersome and costly.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The&nbsp;smic capital-raising</strong> shows that China intends to create a chip giant on a par with Intel or Taiwan’s&nbsp;tsmc, although it will take years to do so.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Britain and France</strong> both eventually ditch Huawei, they will shift to using Nokia and Ericsson in their networks, which will be expensive and take several years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the splintering</strong> now seems inevitable, there will be some surprises.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One is how the two technospheres</strong> of influence are drawn.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American policymakers</strong> tend to assume the world will use Silicon Valley products, but plenty of countries may ally with China’s tech system or hedge their bets.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India is frosty</strong> towards both American and Chinese digital firms and hopes to build up its own champions, although it cannot compete yet in hardware.'</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Another surprise</strong> is how much the split could cost.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The global listed hardware industry</strong> has annual expenses of $600bn, much of which may need to be replicated.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Plenty of key firms,</strong> including Apple and&nbsp;tsmc, are equally dependent on America and China and have no clear plan to cope with a deeper divide.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The tech split is under way.</strong> Do not assume it will happen safely.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Big Tech in Hong Kong: Caught in the Middle</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ojX1s?track_p_id=8sKSJcwdQ6LGYgA_SLiY52%40" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ojX1s?track_p_id=3IC16LGYgA_5VrLz4UJxj6l" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Hong Kong Security Law Sets Stage for Global Internet Fight'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/N4XC1xLX3HsucPdI-mX4LDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ojX1s?track_p_id=06LGYgA_t6N2ZxpwrqdsAs6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/0OCCY3FfwCMmJcYWu9rfkEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ojX1s?track_p_id=31bF6LGYgA_Mh1i3eSl1KIj" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong Security Law Sets Stage for Global Internet Fight&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Paul Mozur</strong> | The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Caught in the middle are the city’s seven million residents, online records of rollicking political debate — some of which may now be illegal — and the world’s largest internet companies, which host, and by extension guard, that data.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Hong Kong grapples</strong> with a draconian&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/29/world/asia/china-hong-kong-security-law-rules.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">new security law</a>, the tiny territory is emerging as the front line in a global fight between the United States and China over censorship, surveillance and the future of the internet.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/asia/hong-kong-security-law-china.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Long a bastion</strong></a>&nbsp;of online freedom on the digital border of China’s tightly managed internet, Hong Kong’s uneasy status changed radically in just a week.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law</strong> mandates police censorship and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/world/asia/hong-kong-security-china.html" rel="nofollow">covert digital surveillance</a>, rules that can be applied to online speech across the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/world/asia/hong-kong-security-law-explain.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">the Hong Kong government</strong></a>&nbsp;is crafting web controls to appease the most prolific censor on the planet, the Chinese Communist Party.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the changes threaten</strong> to further inflame tensions between China and the United States, in which technology itself has become a means by which the two economic superpowers seek to spread influence and undercut each other.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Caught in the middle</strong> are the city’s seven million residents, online records of rollicking political debate — some of which may now be illegal — and the world’s largest internet companies, which host, and by extension guard, that data.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A standoff</strong> is already brewing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many big tech companies,</strong> including Facebook, Google, Twitter,&nbsp;<a href="https://hongkongfp.com/2020/07/07/breaking-zoom-suspends-data-requests-from-hong-kong-govt-over-national-security-law-concerns/" rel="nofollow">Zoom&nbsp;</a>and&nbsp;<a href="https://qz.com/1877636/chinas-great-firewall-arrives-in-hong-kongs-internet/" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>, have said in the past two days that they would temporarily stop complying with requests for user data from the Hong Kong authorities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Hong Kong government,</strong> in turn, has made it clear that the penalty for noncompliance with the law could include jail time for company employees.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/technology/tiktok-google-facebook-twitter-hong-kong.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">TikTok</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> which despite being owned by the Chinese internet giant ByteDance has its eye on the U.S. market, went even further than its American rivals.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The video app</strong> said late Monday it would withdraw from stores in Hong Kong and make it inoperable to users there within a few days.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The company</strong> has said that managers outside China call the shots on key aspects of its business, including rules about data.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Based on the law,</strong> the Hong Kong authorities can dictate the way people around the world talk about the city’s contested politics.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Facebook employee</strong> could potentially be arrested in Hong Kong if the company failed to hand over user data on someone based in the United States whom Chinese authorities deemed a threat to national security.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “If Facebook</strong> refuses to give national security data, its service may be terminated in Hong Kong, and it will lose access to the Hong Kong market,” said Glacier Kwong of Keyboard Frontline, a nongovernmental organization that monitors digital rights in Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It’s not impossible</strong> that this will happen,” Ms. Kwong added. “China often uses its market and boycotting to make foreign companies listen to their demands.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While it is not clear</strong> how widely Hong Kong’s government will enforce the law, the looming legal fights could determine whether the city falls behind China’s digital Iron Curtain or becomes a hybrid where online speech and communications are selectively policed.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The technological Cold War</strong> between China and the United States is playing out on various fronts around the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The trade war</strong> has ensnared Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE, while American companies complain of industrial policies that favor Chinese businesses at home and subsidize them abroad.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s severe digital controls</strong> have kept companies like Google and Facebook from operating their services in mainland China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Though U.S. internet companies</strong> still earn billions of dollars in Chinese ad revenue, a decision to go along with the Hong Kong rules would risk the ire of Washington, where there has been bipartisan condemnation of the security law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘New restrictions</strong> on American businesses could also trigger retaliation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Google’s experience</strong> over the past year shows the fraught position of the largest U.S. internet companies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the Hong Kong police</strong> struggled to contain protests across the city in 2019, they turned to internet companies for help.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Overall data requests</strong> and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.charlesmok.hk/legco/council-question-requests-made-to-information-and-communication-technology-companies-for-disclosure-and-removal-of-information/" rel="nofollow">orders from police&nbsp;</a>to remove content more than doubled in the second half of 2019 from the first half to over 7,000 requests, according to a pro-democracy lawmaker, Charles Mok.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The police asked Google</strong> to take down a number of posts, including a confidential police manual that had leaked online, a YouTube video from the hacking group Anonymous supporting the protests, and links to a website that let the public look up personal details about police officers, according to a company report.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In each case,</strong> Google said no.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law</strong> could punish the company with fines, equipment seizures and arrests if it again declines such requests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also would allow the police</strong> to potentially seize equipment from companies that host such content.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Companies,</strong> meanwhile, have the option of shifting data away from Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For companies like Amazon and Google,</strong> which have large data centers in Hong Kong, such a move would be neither cheap nor easy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And their other options</strong> are equally complicated.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moving all employees</strong> out of the city would insulate firms from arrests, but it may not be feasible.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. How China Took the Lead in Global Medical Supplies</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hEW0G?track_p_id=7S6Y4uoG7Zy6U2_ZknkZ2ly" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hEW0G?track_p_id=2Yt7Zy6U2_FcYFa4CiMVHyH" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Why China Dominates Medical Supplies in This Outbreak – and Will in the Next Too'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/R1iVL5O7kUxgBO3Q2fjG_Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hEW0G?track_p_id=55qHDa7Zy6U2_WE%40SdEvvvJ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_wcLA2l7vqG2QPWH2zHds0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hEW0G?track_p_id=cVljac3npErz17Zy6U2_qSa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China Dominates Medical Supplies in This Outbreak – and Will in the Next Too</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keith Bradsher</strong> | The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Government support and protectionism have built a low-cost industry making masks, testing kits, and other health gear. Other countries will find it tough to compete.</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Before the pandemic,</strong> China already exported more respirators, surgical masks, medical goggles and protective garments than the rest of the world combined.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s coronavirus response</strong> has only added to that dominance.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China increased mask production</strong> nearly 12-fold in February alone.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It can now make 150 tons per day</strong> of the specialized fabric used for masks.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is five times </strong>what China could make before the outbreak, and 15 times the output of U.S. companies even after they ramped up production this spring.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ma Zhaoxu, vice minister of foreign affairs</strong>, said that from March through May, China exported 70.6 billion masks.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Last year - all of last year - 'the entire world</strong> produced about 20 billion, with China accounting for half.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Alarmed at China’s stranglehold</strong> over&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">supplies of masks</a>, gowns,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/world/asia/coronavirus-testing-china-wuhan.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">test kits</a>&nbsp;and other front-line weapons for battling the coronavirus, countries around the world have set up their own factories to cope with this pandemic and outbreaks of the future.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But when the outbreak subsides,</strong> those factories may struggle to survive.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese companies</strong> are likely to have the lowest costs by far and be best positioned for the next global outbreak.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has laid the groundwork</strong> to dominate the market for protective and medical supplies for years to come.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Factory owners</strong> get cheap land, courtesy of the Chinese government.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Loans and subsidies</strong> are plentiful.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese hospitals</strong> are often told to buy locally, giving China’s suppliers a vast and captive market.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s grip on the market</strong> is a testament to its drive to dominate important cogs in the global industrial machine.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For years,</strong> China’s leaders have worried that the country depended too much on foreign sources for everything from medical supplies to microchips to airliners.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has used subsidies,</strong> economic targets and other government inducements to emerge as a powerhouse in those important industries.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Chinese leaders</strong> grew concerned about pollution and dependence on foreign oil, for example, they helped local makers of solar panels, wind turbines and high-speed rail equipment clobber the competition.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They have taken similar steps</strong> to dominate industries of the future, like the next generation of wireless data transmission, known as 5G.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The state’s heavy involvement</strong> in its economy has led to waste and graft that could slow China’s growth.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the policies</strong> have often proved effective in building industries that can withstand losses and tough foreign competition.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Medical supplies</strong> may be similar.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Check out</strong> the case study - from the same article - below.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zOqKO?track_p_id=071uEsI_jAXS6aRAuVGPJ4W" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zOqKO?track_p_id=aQrmJVXAtZg71uEsI_3fbmv" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Case Study: China Industrial Policy in Medical Supplies</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zOqKO?track_p_id=33U671uEsI_SXqIXgLilqvP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_wcLA2l7vqG2QPWH2zHds0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zOqKO?track_p_id=8IeVs3d5p71uEsI_WqAL3HT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Case Study: China Industrial Policy in Medical Supplies</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keith Bradsher</strong> | The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government played a major role in this year’s medical-equipment build-out.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/07/business/china-trade-manufacturing-europe.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">$300 billion “Made in China 2025” industrial policy</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>to replace imports in many key industries includes medical devices.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ministry</strong> called for raising China’s share of the local market by 30 to 40 percentage points in each category of medical supplies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese makers of medical gear</strong> enjoyed generous government subsidies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Shenzhen Mindray,</strong> a maker of ventilators and other intensive care equipment, received up to $16.6 million a year over the past three years, according to company documents.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Winner Medical,</strong> a mask manufacturer, received $3 million to $4 million a year.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Guangzhou Improve,</strong> a producer of masks and test kits, received $2.5 million to $5 million a year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government</strong> played a major role in this year’s medical-equipment build-out.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sinopec,</strong> a state-owned Chinese oil company, said it had worked closely with the Chinese Communist Party as it set out to build a factory to make the particle-trapping fabric needed for surgical masks and respirators.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At one site,</strong> 600 engineers and workers labored in shifts day and night for 35 consecutive days to build a factory that would normally take a year to construct.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A “party member assault team”</strong> worked 20 hours straight on Feb. 26 to prepare a warehouse for the project, according to the company.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Officials also accelerated efforts</strong> to make land available for new factories.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The city of Hangzhou</strong> in Zhejiang Province transferred 1.6 acres to the Jiande Chaomei Daily Chemical Company on Feb. 15 for an emergency expansion of respirator production.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lanxi, a county in Zhejiang,</strong> transferred land to the Baihao New Materials Company by the end of February for respirator production.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Officials in Guangdong Province</strong> and the city of Jinan in Shandong Province approved more lenient land policies for medical supply businesses as well.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Government support</strong> for the medical supply industry is continuing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Guangzhou Aoyuan Biotech Company</strong> decided this year to expand from its usual business of making disinfectant into the manufacture of N95 masks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A top local official</strong> immediately visited the company, arranged land for it in an industrial park and approved all of the necessary forms.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At least three</strong> other large, populous provinces — Liaoning, Hubei and Shandong — made similar announcements.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. China Industrial Policy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HZAeW?track_p_id=4Xm5d8ntnmI_Xv3PLQBOwhA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HZAeW?track_p_id=9Jbc5%403ORx8ntnmI_OWCCxz" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China as Economic Bogeyman'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/GNWrNeZk_2ARsTS23J_Irjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HZAeW?track_p_id=eiFax%403aq2OQqMr8ntnmI_t" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/LC2mddKuOfndXlWhkd2gnEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HZAeW?track_p_id=dOYQ2tzxrtDeq38ntnmI_qR" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China as Economic Bogeyman by Dani Rodrik</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dani Rodrik</strong> | Harvard Kennedy School of Government</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But aren’t Chinese industrial policies, such as those deployed in medical supplies, unfair to competitors elsewhere? We should exercise caution before reaching such a verdict.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “China has laid the groundwork</strong> to dominate the market for protective and medical supplies for years to come,” according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/business/china-medical-supplies.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">recent reporting</a>&nbsp;by the&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">New York Times</em>.’ [This essay is a response to points covered in the posts above]</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As everyone recognizes</strong> by now, China’s manufacturing prowess is not the result of unfettered market forces.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we should not allow</strong> economics to become hostage to geopolitics or, worse, to reinforce and magnify the strategic rivalry.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For starters,</strong> we must recognize that a mixed, state-driven economic model has always been at the root of Chinese economic success.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If one-half of China’s economic miracle</strong> reflects its turn to markets after the late 1970s, the other half is the result of active government policies that protected old economic structures – such as state enterprises – while new industries were spawned through a wide array of industrial policies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese people</strong> were the main beneficiaries, of course, experiencing the fastest poverty reduction in history.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But these gains</strong> did not come at the expense of the rest of the world. Far from it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The growth policies</strong> that today arouse other countries’ ire are the reason China has become such a large market for Western exporters and investors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But aren’t Chinese industrial policies,</strong> such as those deployed in medical supplies, unfair to competitors elsewhere?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We should exercise</strong> caution before reaching such a verdict.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The standard justification</strong> for industrial policy is that new industries produce learning spillovers, technological externalities, and other broad social benefits that render state support desirable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But many Western economists</strong> presume that governments are not very good at identifying industries that merit support, and that domestic consumers and taxpayers incur the bulk of the costs.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> if Chinese industrial policy has been misguided and misdirected, it is China’s own economy that has suffered as a result.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the same logic,</strong> if Chinese policymakers effectively targeted activities where social benefits exceed private benefits, producing improved economic performance, then it is not clear why foreigners should complain.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is what economists</strong> call a case of “fixing market failures.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is especially true</strong> when the externality in question is a global one, as in the case of climate change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese subsidies</strong> for solar panels and wind turbines have produced a decline in the cost of renewable energy – an enormous benefit for the rest of the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economics of industrial policy</strong> can get more complicated in the presence of monopolies and market-dominant firms.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Industrial policies</strong> can be justifiably restricted when they enable the exercise of market power at the expense of the rest of the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Chinese producers</strong> are rarely accused of propping up prices, which is the hallmark of market power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More often,</strong> the complaint is the opposite.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such considerations</strong> probably apply more to the US and European firms that are frequently the dominant players in high-tech markets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘None of this is an argument</strong> for other countries to stand idly by while China progresses to ever more sophisticated industries.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US, for one,</strong> has a long history of successful industrial policy, particularly in defense-related technologies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is now broad political agreement</strong> in the US political spectrum that the country needs a more explicit industrial policy targeting good jobs, innovation, and a green economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/us-lawmakers-unveil-bold-100-billion-plan-remake-nsf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">bill&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">advanced</strong> by the US Senate’s top Democrat, Chuck Schumer, proposes to spend $100 billion over the next five years on new technologies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Much of the new push for industrial policy</strong> in the US and Europe is motivated by the perceived Chinese “threat.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But economic considerations</strong> suggest this is the wrong focus.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The needs and remedies</strong> lie in the domestic sphere.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The objective</strong> should be to build more productive, more inclusive economies at home – not simply to outcompete China or try to undercut its economic progress.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 8, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77NHqS?track_p_id=7iA1wyLU526yy6_6TFe6Mpc" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Political Logic of China’s Strategic Mistakes'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77NHqS?track_p_id=5rYGzM526yy6_W5PJ3CyVvb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77NHqS?track_p_id=4n5li526yy6_aiyiT3CXXSX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'The Political Logic of China’s Strategic Mistakes'&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Falling back on cliché:</strong> If I had a nickel for every time someone asked me why China is imposing a draconian national security law on Hong Kong that could have dire consequences, or why China is employing ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy when it’s alienating rather persuading other nations, or why…</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I can only speculate,</strong> but veteran China explainer Minxin Pei has some thoughts.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is tempting to see</strong> China’s major policy miscalculations as a consequence of over-concentration of power in the hands of President Xi Jinping: strongman rule inhibits internal debate and makes poor decisions more likely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This argument</strong> is not necessarily wrong, but it omits a more important reason for the Chinese government’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-reputation-wolf-warrior-diplomacy-covid19-by-minxin-pei-2020-06" rel="nofollow">self-destructive policies</a>: the mindset of the Communist Party of China (CPC).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CPC sees the world</strong> as, first and foremost, a jungle.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Having been shaped</strong> by its own bloody and brutal struggle for power against impossible odds between 1921-49, the party is firmly convinced that the world is a Hobbesian place where long-term survival depends solely on raw power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CPC’s worldview</strong> is also colored by a cynical belief in the power of greed.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even before China</strong> became the world’s second-largest economy, the party was convinced that Western governments were mere lackeys of capitalist interests.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All plausible.</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But my own take</strong> relies more on hubris, misundereading of the current situation, and miscalculation about just how much the rest of the world will let China get away with.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regular readers</strong> know that I have been a sometime lonely voice saying that the biggest gray swan in U.S.-China relations is Taiwan.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Recently the issue</strong> has been moving to front &amp; center – from think tank analyses to bills in Congress to reorganizing the American military to counter any threats from Taiwan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While no one,</strong> including me, believes a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, John Pomfret has given me reason to reevaluate this conclusion. Some background:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The centenary</strong> of the founding of the China Communist is coming up in 2021.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The economic goals</strong> Xi Jinping wanted to achieve by the anniversary have been made impossible by the pandemic.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He needs a win and among his broader goals</strong> are reintegrating Hong Kong and Taiwan into the Chinese Communist regime; he has effectively achieved that in Hong Kong with the new security law.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Is Taiwan next?</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has been considerable speculation</strong> in China that Xi wants to solve “the Taiwan question” sometime near July of next year, when the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its centenary,’ writes John Pomfret.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Makes some sense</strong> and gives more reason to follow what’s happening in the Taiwan Straits and also the South China Sea more closely.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Reminder:</strong> If this happens, don’t call it a ‘Black Swan’ event – you have been alerted by me and many others.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Defend Taiwan: For &amp; Against</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For:</strong> ‘The Biden administration should draw a line that places Taiwan within the sphere of regional nations whose self-defense implicates vital U.S. interests,' writes right-leaning columnist and public intellectual, George Will.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Against: </strong>‘The risks of a conflict over Taiwan escalating out of control are very great,’ writes venerable diplomat and China expert Chas Freeman (a reprint from an earlier issue to give balance).</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This needs to be approached</strong> with respect for the political achievements of people in Taiwan, but with due regard for American interests, which must come first.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And those interests</strong> dictate peace, stability, and no war with China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The price of that interest</strong> is deference to Beijing on the issue of Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Your editor:</strong> Please hand me that map and a marker.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. 'Coming Soon to the United Nations: Chinese Leadership and Authoritarian Values'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Business leaders and institutional investors</strong> don’t pay much attention to the workings of international organizations, until they do.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">International organizations</strong> help create the environments they operate in.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But often</strong> they don't know how the organizations are shaping those environments - and more importantly - which countries are shaping those outcomes in the organizations - until they do, and it's too late.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go into your local U.S. law library,</strong> and you will see shelves of statutes and cases.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">International law</strong> isn’t like that.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It’s a hodgepodge</strong> of customary practices, bilateral treaties, and conventions &amp; the like agreed to by some large number of countries.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This last,</strong> multilateral conventions, emanate mostly from the halls of international organizations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While generally lacking stern enforcement provisions,</strong> these conventions do set the accepted standard of conduct on issues of common importance.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even with some notable exceptions</strong> – like China and the WTO – signatory nations recognize that these conventions should govern their actions and try to abide.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, again, these conventions</strong> help to create the environments that businesses operate in.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So their impact </strong>goes far beyond the world of cookie-pushing diplomats.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That's why you want the good guys</strong> exerting influence, and why President Trump’s disengagement with – and distaste for – international organizations is creating difficulties.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The WHO</strong> is a case in point – and so is the UN.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has let go of the wheel, and Beijing stands poised to take hold of it,’ writes Kristine Lee of The Center for a New American Security.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Eager to expand its influence</strong> on the world stage in ways that serve its interests, China has placed considerable resources behind an effort to present its leadership at the UN as a nimbler, more dynamic alternative to that of the United States.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Beijing succeeds</strong> in retooling the UN to its purposes, China won’t become more like the rest of the world—the rest of the world will become more like China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lastest example reported by Axios: </strong>‘Dueling statements at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva shed light on geopolitical currents far beyond the walls of that institution.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China's Foreign Ministry</strong> and state media declared victory after 53 countries backed&nbsp;<a href="https://link.axios.com/click/20800944.30335/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2hvbmcta29uZy1uYXRpb25hbC1zZWN1cml0eS1sYXctY2hpbmEtOTU4OWExMjktYTZlNC00NWE0LWFjMGUtOTdhNjRmNjA4Nzg3Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3N3b3JsZCZzdHJlYW09d29ybGQ/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Bc289eb2d" rel="nofollow">Beijing's new national security law for Hong Kong</a>.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Just 27 criticized the law, </strong>which imposes harsh penalties for vaguely defined political crimes and is widely viewed as the death knell for Hong Kong's autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our thought bubble:</strong>&nbsp;China's massive investments are bearing fruit:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Beijing has effectively</strong> leveraged the UN Human Rights Council to endorse the very activities it was created to oppose." ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.</strong>&nbsp;has been highly critical of China over the law, but withdrew from the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/us-backs-out-of-un-human-rights-council-1529443745-56b33b56-94c7-48ed-b580-960dfcea9d72.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Human Rights Council</a>&nbsp;in 2018.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Keith Harper,&nbsp;</strong>who served as America's representative to the council from 2014 to 2017, says America's absence is one major reason why the balance tipped so dramatically in China's favor.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Since we have pulled away</strong> from nearly all international organizations, China has stepped up big time," Harper says. "They really want to take over for the United States, and this is why.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That can’t be good.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My modest proposal</strong> is that the Trump administration return to the field and work to bring these organizations into line with the world as it is today – not as it was when the organizations were created.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Goodness knows</strong> they need this overhauling, and the U.S. needs to lead it.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. Global Economics Quarterly: 'A Year Like No Other'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Our friends at CreditSuisse</strong> have assembled an outstanding chart deck that sets forth the state of the global economy, region by region.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The idea</strong> is to assess underlying dynamics that can help investors navigate through the partial reopening rebound, the stressful risks of later this year, and the broader implications that lie further ahead.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Only the four China slides</strong> are included here.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the entire presentation</strong> is definitely worth your attention.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6uFL4y?track_p_id=44H2K9KSkzG_PphoZNkePEC" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JQGXP95HYy5hVTjw-HmldUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6uFL4y?track_p_id=d31G63Nzsjxvva9KSkzG_SB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | How China Scammed Hong Kong - The New York Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. 'China's Political Logic'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7CPfP6?track_p_id=2sm6q1L02_gnj6exUjq1PBZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7CPfP6?track_p_id=8JYPVZNxN6q1L02_L3kGbXl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Political Logic of China’s Strategic Mistakes'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/n_UMdWLbd-O4LS0urh67Yzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7CPfP6?track_p_id=dQziLwd3RJF5du6q1L02_zN" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pv77ZYi8piSOxFndXpR4IUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7CPfP6?track_p_id=2uT6q1L02_h2%40Gp6%404BqvZT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Political Logic of China’s Strategic Mistakes'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei</strong> | Claremont McKenna College</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CPC sees the world as, first and foremost, a jungle.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some of the Chinese government’s recent policies</strong> seem to make little practical sense, with its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-hong-kong-security-law-crisis-by-minxin-pei-2020-05" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">decision</a>&nbsp;to impose a national-security law on Hong Kong being a prime example.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong’s future</strong> as an international financial center is now in grave peril, while resistance by residents determined to defend their freedom will make the city even less stable.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> China’s latest move will help the United States to persuade wavering European allies to join its nascent anti-China coalition.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The long-term consequences</strong> for China are therefore likely to be dire.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is tempting to see</strong> China’s major policy miscalculations as a consequence of over-concentration of power in the hands of President Xi Jinping: strongman rule inhibits internal debate and makes poor decisions more likely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This argument</strong> is not necessarily wrong, but it omits a more important reason for the Chinese government’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-reputation-wolf-warrior-diplomacy-covid19-by-minxin-pei-2020-06" rel="nofollow">self-destructive policies</a>: the mindset of the Communist Party of China (CPC).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CPC sees the world</strong> as, first and foremost, a jungle.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Having been shaped</strong> by its own bloody and brutal struggle for power against impossible odds between 1921-49, the party is firmly convinced that the world is a Hobbesian place where long-term survival depends solely on raw power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CPC’s worldview</strong> is also colored by a cynical belief in the power of greed.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even before China</strong> became the world’s second-largest economy, the party was convinced that Western governments were mere lackeys of capitalist interests.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although these countries</strong> might profess fealty to human rights and democracy, the CPC believed that they could not afford to lose access to the Chinese market – especially if their capitalist rivals stood to profit as a result.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such cynicism</strong> now permeates China’s strategy of asserting full control over Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders</strong> expect the West’s anger at their actions to fade quickly, calculating that Western firms are too heavily vested in the city to let the perils of China’s police state be a deal breaker.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until recently,</strong> the West’s acquiescence in the face of Chinese assertiveness appeared to have vindicated the CPC’s Hobbesian worldview.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Before the rise of Trumpism</strong> and the subsequent radical shift in US policy toward China, Chinese leaders had encountered practically no pushback, despite repeatedly overplaying their hand.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in Trump and his national-security hawks,</strong> China finally has met its match.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Like their counterparts in Beijing,</strong> the US president and his senior advisers not only believe in the law of the jungle, but also are unafraid to wield raw power against their foes.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfortunately for the CPC,</strong> therefore, it now has to contend with a far more determined adversary.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Worse still,</strong> America’s willingness to absorb enormous short-term economic pain to gain a long-term strategic edge over China indicates that greed has lost its primacy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In particular,</strong> the US strategy of “decoupling” – severing the dense web of Sino-American economic ties – has caught China totally by surprise, because no CPC leader ever imagined that the US government would be willing to write off the Chinese market in pursuit of broader geopolitical objectives.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the first time</strong> since the end of the Cultural Revolution, the CPC faces a genuine existential threat, mainly because its mindset has led it to commit a series of calamitous strategic errors.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And its latest intervention in Hong Kong</strong> suggests that it has no intention of changing course.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. The 'Taiwan Question'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7UZzjE?track_p_id=aiM%40d4YYpuB569lZW_cCjyM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7UZzjE?track_p_id=0569lZW_jtPzOnynpbUhb2k" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/jYkuPUFGjNvWnWnllYgVfjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Evan Medeiros</strong></p></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7UZzjE?track_p_id=22I569lZW_5J6oLxogwrAO1" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/kwLqY03V1fyIk3zEtvEVtEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7UZzjE?track_p_id=56YsrE569lZW_hYQhCe3XtO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael Green and Evan Medeiros</strong> | Georgetown University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi and other Chinese leaders are still weighing the costs and benefits of a harder line on Taiwan as they take the measure of U.S. and international willpower—which is why the U.S. response to the Hong Kong law matters so much.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has imposed</strong> a draconian national security law that will undermine the territory’s autonomy and, by extension, its identity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law</strong> is a profound tragedy for the people of Hong Kong, but unfortunately, there is little the international community can do to halt its implementation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration</strong> of U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that it will dial up pressure on Hong Kong’s government.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some analysts</strong> have therefore&nbsp;<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/the-us-should-not-punish-hong-kong-for-chinas-sins/" rel="nofollow">counseled </a>U.S. restraint, arguing that a softer touch could encourage Beijing to moderate its implementation of the law and avoid making the situation worse.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But there are larger issues at stake.</strong> U.S. policymakers must consider more than Hong Kong when formulating their response.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A tepid U.S. reaction</strong> could leave Beijing with the impression that it can proceed with relative impunity on other contentious issues in Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The shadow of Taiwan</strong> looms large in this context.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unless the United States</strong> demonstrates the resolve and ability to resist Chinese coercion and aggression, China’s leaders may eventually conclude that the risks and the costs of future military action against Taiwan are low—or at least tolerable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s recent actions in Hong Kong</strong>—and elsewhere in Asia—raise worrying questions about its evolving objectives and increasing willingness to use coercive tactics to achieve them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In short,</strong> the United States must be careful not to play a narrow game on Hong Kong when Beijing is positioning itself for a broader competition for the future of Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under President Xi Jinping,</strong> China has become much more tolerant of friction in international affairs than it once was and much bolder about using coercion to advance Chinese interests—often at the expense of the United States and other powers, such as Japan and India.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent months,</strong> China has increased its military and paramilitary pressure on neighboring countries with which it has territorial disputes, including India, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether these aggressive maneuvers</strong> were intended to remind the world of China’s resolve or to capitalize on the distraction caused by the coronavirus pandemic, they offer a stark reminder of Xi’s appetite for risk, tolerance for conflict, and desire to assert territorial claims.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leaders</strong> have always maintained that they are prepared to use force over Taiwan—either to prevent the island’s de jure independence or to compel its unification with the mainland.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Xi</strong> has taken a progressively harder line on Taiwan, in word as well as deed.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has ramped up</strong> military pressure on Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its air force and navy</strong> have conducted more than ten transits and military exercises near the island since mid-January, including an increasing number of deliberate incursions into Taiwan’s airspace, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-crisis" rel="nofollow">research&nbsp;</a>by Bonnie S. Glaser and Matthew P. Funaiole of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In March,</strong> China’s air force sent two advanced fighter jets over the centerline of the Taiwan Strait for the first time in 20 years.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since then,</strong> it has sent an increasing number of aircraft across the centerline.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s strategic bombers</strong> have also circumnavigated the island multiple times in recent months, while other Chinese aircraft have crossed the Miyako Strait between Taiwan and Japan.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All of these maneuvers</strong> were intended to intimidate Taiwan by demonstrating Beijing’s readiness to use force at a moment’s notice.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is little Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen</strong> can do to convince China to dial back the diplomatic and military pressure short of accepting its unilateral definition of “one China” and its “one country, two systems” model, both of which are now wholly discredited by what has happened in Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the worldview of China’s leaders, </strong>Tsai’s commitment to Taiwanese independence, her perceived efforts at “de-Sinification” on the island, and the growing connections between Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the democratic world more broadly all legitimize China’s saber rattling—and perhaps, eventually, its use of force.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi appears</strong> to have made up his mind about Tsai—wrongly but perhaps conclusively.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi and other Chinese leaders</strong> are still weighing the costs and benefits of a harder line on Taiwan as they take the measure of U.S. and international willpower—which is why the U.S. response to the Hong Kong law matters so much.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mkK3M?track_p_id=06fiHL4_4dRsBLtAfoZbY2a" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mkK3M?track_p_id=7qpGmX3B6fiHL4_txzrECMg" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Hong Kong security law could be China’s blueprint to deal with the "Taiwan problem" ’&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/sHrfZzI17JCUXt-hDiSD9zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mkK3M?track_p_id=7uYsybsO6fiHL4_Apccqk3F" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/QO6Q4d00T4epYc3Nz3u1bki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mkK3M?track_p_id=7CYXrhmI6fiHL4_Kv1CP3Bt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Hong Kong security law could be China’s blueprint to deal with the ‘Taiwan problem’&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">John Pomfret</strong> | The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has been considerable speculation in China that Xi wants to solve “the Taiwan question” sometime near July of next year, when the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its centenary.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/hong-kong-national-security-law-ends-freedom-democracy-china/2020/06/30/c37e5a4a-ba8b-11ea-97c1-6cf116ffe26c_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">national security law</strong></a>&nbsp;that China passed last week is scary for many reasons.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">But perhaps</strong> the most worrisome element in the law is what is left unsaid.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that is that the legislation</strong> could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In fact,</strong> with the passage of the national security law on Hong Kong, China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy that sits 90 miles off its coast.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Don’t take my word for it.</strong> Listen to Li Su, the president of the Modern Think-Tank Forum and a prominent hard-liner in Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Following the passage of the law,</strong> Li&nbsp;<a href="https://m.weibo.cn/status/4518938866287879?from=groupmessage#&amp;video" rel="nofollow">took to Chinese social media</a> to hail the law as a critical step in “liberating Taiwan.” ’</li><li style="text-align: left;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Li is part of an influential group of scholars</strong> in China who support an armed solution to what they call “the Taiwan problem.” ’</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">In his lecture</strong> on Chinese social media, Li said he interpreted the Hong Kong security law as a “test case” on which China will model its takeover of Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We will learn how to control Taiwan</strong> by experimenting with this law on Hong Kong,” he declared.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “From the experiment on Hong Kong,</strong> we will tell the people on Taiwan that after we forcibly unite with you, we will have a way to deal with you.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Simply put,</strong> that would consist of rounding up “your independence activists, democracy activists, students who cause trouble and bring them to the mainland to be sentenced.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After that,</strong> Li asked, “who would dare oppose us?” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At least 10 people&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1067682" rel="nofollow">have already been arrested in Hong Kong under the new law</a>, and Chinese officials said they could be tried in mainland Chinese courts.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">For years,</strong> China has used Hong Kong as a test case for its dealings with Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 1997,</strong> China agreed with Britain to resume control over Britain’s old colony of Hong Kong under a model that the Chinese government called “one country, two systems. ” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under that model,</strong> China promised to maintain Hong Kong’s freewheeling capitalist and more open political system for 50 years, an agreement that China is now accused of breaking. China subsequently proposed to Taiwan that it follow the “one country, two systems” model to unite with China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today, a vast majority of Taiwanese,</strong> who live in one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies, reject any idea of uniting with mainland China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">China claims Taiwan is part of China</strong> and has never abandoned the threat of force to take over the island.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s president, Xi Jinping,</strong> reiterated that vow in a speech on Jan. 1, 2019, declaring that China would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/01/world/asia/xi-jinping-taiwan-china.html" rel="nofollow">“retain the option of taking all necessary measures”</a>&nbsp;to absorb the island.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. law requires</strong> that the U.S. government provide for Taiwan’s defense but stops short of requiring that American soldiers die for Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has been considerable speculation in China</strong> that Xi wants to solve “the Taiwan question” sometime near July of next year, when the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its centenary.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Li said</strong> the promulgation of the security law last week basically confirmed that theory.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Sometime around 2021,”</strong> Li predicted, “we are definitely going to liberate Taiwan.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">Li and other like-minded hard-liners</strong> played down the reaction of Western nations, which were generally united in their condemnation of the Hong Kong law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “China’s enemies</strong> are a group of a dragons without a head,” Li declared.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The U.S.</strong> is already a hooligan nation. How can a hooligan nation be a leader?’ America doesn’t even qualify to be China’s opponent.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ ”What are they going to do, </strong>fight a war over Hong Kong?” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The same question</strong> could be asked for Taiwan.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Defend Taiwan: For &amp; Against</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/84ueNU?track_p_id=07uwa5u_L2IFQqwXDpso33P" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/hzpVC3f-tQtl7XtjIBz6pki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/84ueNU?track_p_id=3aLf7uwa5u_OtSXeCZ6rOUO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">America's Interest is No War with China, Not Defending Taiwan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/84ueNU?track_p_id=2ct7uwa5u_QE3GgLSEAVr1v" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3u31A4drJ5u_Hg3m5KYEUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/84ueNU?track_p_id=aWjG45AgqaC7uwa5u_BXvBq" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chas Freeman on Picking Fights the U.S. Can Win</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wire China</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas Freeman</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This needs to be approached with respect for the political achievements of people in Taiwan, but with due regard for American interests, which must come first.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas Freeman: ‘The Chinese Civil War</strong> did not come to a conclusion, because on June 27, 1950, the U.S. interposed the Seventh Fleet between the contending Chinese forces.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So, the Chinese Civil War</strong> was suspended; it has not ended.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our position from June 27, 1950,</strong> has been that we would like to see this resolved peacefully, rather than through the use of force.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We oppose unilateral change</strong> imposed by either side; that’s our official position.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years,</strong> we have begun to drift more and more into open support of self-determination for Taiwan because it evolved into a democratic society.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When I first lived there,</strong> it was totalitarian under Chiang Kai-shek, but it has become a robust democracy with a great deal of respect for civil and human rights.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it is</strong> from that perspective ideologically admirable.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is a classic contest</strong> between ideology and interest, between the value of the word of the U.S., which affirmed that Taiwan was part of China on several occasions, and our ideological druthers.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is not a problem</strong> to be approached lightly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are in fact,</strong> contesting the borders and the territorial integrity of a nuclear power.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We never did</strong> that with the Soviet Union.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The risks of a conflict over Taiwan</strong> escalating out of control are very great.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This needs to be approached</strong> with respect for the political achievements of people in Taiwan, but with due regard for American interests, which must come first.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And those interests</strong> dictate peace, stability, and no war with China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The price of that interest</strong> is deference to Beijing on the issue.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have had diplomatic relations with Beijing</strong> since January 1, 1979, and have managed those in a way that actually facilitated the emergence of democracy in Taiwan where there was none.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And we have not</strong> in any respect harmed Taiwan, except in terms of its obsession with face.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: ‘Are you worried that we might be heading towards armed conflict with China?’&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas Freeman: ‘Yes.</strong> We are in the process of violating, directly or indirectly, almost every assurance we’ve given the Chinese on the question of Taiwan:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d203" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shanghai Communiqué&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">in 1972,</strong> the&nbsp;<a href="https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ait-taiwan/171414/ait-pages/prc_e.pdf" rel="nofollow">normalization communiqué&nbsp;</a>of 1979, the&nbsp;<a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1981-1988/china-communique" rel="nofollow">arms sales agreement of 1982</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are not in compliance</strong> with any of our assurances anymore, and the Chinese in response have begun to build a military capacity to devastate Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We no longer</strong> have the ability to block that but are talking and passing legislation as though we did.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are essentially leading with our chins,</strong> and we are dependent on the self-restraint of Beijing, rather than our own restraint, to keep the peace in the Taiwan Strait.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8N4yhc?track_p_id=cDJ%40BQ3NOKU2A6Len78_qZs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8N4yhc?track_p_id=aLU2VxbhHcA6Len78_URIHo" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'End U.S. "Strategic Ambiguity" on Taiwan'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Utl7Z4rwJqnhG40gn048fzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">The 'Acheson Defense Perimeter': "We will defend any area to the East of the Line."</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">Opps...forgot South Korea.</p></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8N4yhc?track_p_id=74a6rux36Len78_lCaEVPEl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YR4PQepY_0iN7q8I6qTNI0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8N4yhc?track_p_id=dmTcOMhQs3X2Wz6Len78_lZ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | China extends its reign of random fear - The</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">George Will </strong>| The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Biden administration should draw a line that places Taiwan within the sphere of regional nations whose self-defense implicates vital U.S. interests.'</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Korean War,</strong> which brought Americans into combat against Chinese troops,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Korean-War" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">began 70 years ago</a> after Dean Acheson, President Harry S. Truman’s secretary of state,&nbsp;<a href="https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/jcs/article/view/366/578" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">gave a speech</a>&nbsp;in which he left South Korea outside his definition of America’s defense perimeter.’ [see the map above]</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Biden administration</strong> should draw a line that places Taiwan within the sphere of regional nations whose self-defense implicates vital U.S. interests.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Biden’s urgent foreign policy tasks</strong> will include revising the long-standing U.S. policy of “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1067056022000054678?journalCode=cjcc20" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">strategic ambiguity</a>” regarding Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing</strong> is demonstrating in Hong Kong “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/01/pelosi-hong-kong-security-law-347060" rel="nofollow">one country, two systems</a>” actually means one country, one simmering stew of Leninism and Stalinism flavored with fascism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The dictator Xi Jinping</strong> has repeatedly said that Taiwan’s current status — nationhood in all but name — is intolerable and “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/01/07/8-key-things-to-notice-from-xi-jinpings-new-year-speech-on-taiwan/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">should not be passed down generation after generation</a>.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A reelected President Trump,</strong> whose cramped notion of America’s role in the world is confined to commercial bookkeeping, might swap Taiwan’s freedom for increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When at&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_inauguration#:~:text=Since%201937%2C%20it%20has%20taken,20%20fell%20on%20a%20Sunday." rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">noon Jan. 20</strong></a> the United States ends the policy of making America marginal again, Biden should adopt strategic clarity, informing Beijing that the U.S. legal obligation to sell Taiwan weaponry needed for self-defense entails a moral obligation to assist with that project.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. PRC, USA, &amp; the UN</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fFJ1k?track_p_id=7INIbUoa7wpgnW_wDxhFD3W" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fFJ1k?track_p_id=92GjmNI%40LS7wpgnW_EFCGbC" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Coming Soon to the United Nations: Chinese Leadership and Authoritarian Values'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fFJ1k?track_p_id=9UswtF3USK7wpgnW_kgAPhz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/PiirKGSuWbjXdmgd3jYHu0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fFJ1k?track_p_id=7LfEbZLi7wpgnW_bG1TtmZ3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Coming Soon to the United Nations: Chinese Leadership and Authoritarian Values</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kristine Lee </strong>| The Center for a New American Security</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Beijing succeeds in retooling the UN to its purposes, China won’t become more like the rest of the world—the rest of the world will become more like China.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has let go of the wheel, and Beijing stands poised to take hold of it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Eager to expand its influence</strong> on the world stage in ways that serve its interests, China has placed considerable resources behind an effort to present its leadership at the UN as a nimbler, more dynamic alternative to that of the United States.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past few years alone,</strong> the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3017723/why-does-new-chinese-head-un-food-agency-feed-us-suspicion" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">positioned its officials</a>&nbsp;to head up four of the UN’s 15 specialized agencies, while the United States leads only one.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has also advanced</strong> more than two dozen&nbsp;<a href="http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26318/UN%20Agencies%20BRI%20Involvement%2002%20%2801%20Oct%202018%29.pdf?sequence=17&amp;isAllowed=y" rel="nofollow">memorandums of understanding</a> in support of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and mobilized a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/12/world/asia/china-human-rights-united-nations.html" rel="nofollow">consortium of illiberal states&nbsp;</a>to tamp down international criticism of its repression of ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang Province.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has responded to China’s rising profile in only a piecemeal fashion, in part because Washington has been busy recalibrating its own relationship with the international body.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration</strong> of President Donald Trump has passed through numerous ambassadors to the UN in a short time, while unilaterally withdrawing the United States from certain UN agencies and repudiating multilateral institutions more broadly.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With China</strong> seeking to steer the United Nations away from its founding principles, however, the United States can’t afford to sit back.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A China-dominated UN</strong> would only lead to the steady erosion of U.S. values and interests in matters that range from nonproliferation to sustainable development.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All major powers</strong> seek to promote their interests within international organizations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As President Trump</strong> told the UN General Assembly in 2017, “I will always put America first, just like you, as the leaders of your countries, will always, and should always, put your countries first.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China’s pursuit</strong> of its core interests at the UN is perilous, because among those interests is the narrow political goal of shoring up power under a single authority: the CCP.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Beijing succeeds</strong> in retooling the UN to its purposes, China won’t become more like the rest of the world—the rest of the world will become more like China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the Trump administration</strong> is serious about competing strategically with China, it will have to step up its game on this highest international stage.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8xPdLs?track_p_id=8dS6fJEdX7XmrcM_d5Y1OM6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/yROivUZ552UArCWXK0YWaUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8xPdLs?track_p_id=7AdHa1oN7XmrcM_vtziRCCX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The 53 countries supporting China's crackdown on Hong Kong'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/j8lI3Z7W0hluEY1s2emSWjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8xPdLs?track_p_id=3Z5Z7XmrcM_MVEDcQX1ieIl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/r1w43cuDDF2WJaOyc0TsdUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8xPdLs?track_p_id=2et7XmrcM_lNEKbY25FF36z" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The 53 countries supporting China's crackdown on Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Axios</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dave Lawler</strong> | Axios</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Beijing has effectively leveraged the UN Human Rights Council to endorse the very activities it was created to oppose."</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Dueling statements</strong> at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva shed light on geopolitical currents far beyond the walls of that institution.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Driving the news:</strong>&nbsp;China's Foreign Ministry and state media declared victory after 53 countries backed&nbsp;<a href="https://link.axios.com/click/20800944.30335/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2hvbmcta29uZy1uYXRpb25hbC1zZWN1cml0eS1sYXctY2hpbmEtOTU4OWExMjktYTZlNC00NWE0LWFjMGUtOTdhNjRmNjA4Nzg3Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3N3b3JsZCZzdHJlYW09d29ybGQ/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Bc289eb2d" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Beijing's new national security law for Hong Kong</a>.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Just 27 criticized the law, </strong>which imposes harsh penalties for vaguely defined political crimes and is widely viewed as the death knell for Hong Kong's autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the room:</strong>&nbsp;The two statements were read back to back in Tuesday's session, with Cuba supporting China and the U.K. representing the critics. China's other allies weren't named publicly until Axios obtained the list this morning.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The big picture:</strong>&nbsp;This is one of the clearest indications to date of which countries are challenging a rising superpower, at least on human rights, and which are lining up behind it.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">China's critics</strong>&nbsp;are concentrated in Europe and also include major democracies like Australia, Canada and Japan. All 27 are considered "free" in Freedom House's global ratings.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is backed</strong> by an assortment of "not free" and "partially free" countries, including many of the world's most brutal dictatorships — North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Three small “free” countries</strong> did back Beijing: Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, and Suriname (combined pop. ~700,000).’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All three,</strong> and at least 40 of the other signatories, have signed onto China’s Belt and Road infrastructure project.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many of the African signatories,</strong> meanwhile, are trying to renegotiate debt payments to China amid sharp COVID-related downturns.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our thought bubble:</strong>&nbsp;China's massive investments are bearing fruit, notes Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian: "Beijing has effectively leveraged the UN Human Rights Council to endorse the very activities it was created to oppose." ’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.</strong>&nbsp;has been highly critical of China over the law, but withdrew from the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.axios.com/us-backs-out-of-un-human-rights-council-1529443745-56b33b56-94c7-48ed-b580-960dfcea9d72.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Human Rights Council</a>&nbsp;in 2018.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Keith Harper,&nbsp;</strong>who served as America's representative to the council from 2014 to 2017, says America's absence is one major reason why the balance tipped so dramatically in China's favor.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Statements</strong> like this often play out as "battles between China and the United States," Harper says, with China putting "unbelievable pressure" on countries to back it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While some countries</strong> on the list "are always going to back China," he says, others joined because "they will get better deals if they are in the good graces of China" and "there’s no detriment there because the U.S. isn’t at the table." ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Since we have pulled away</strong> from nearly all international organizations, China has stepped up big time," Harper says. "They really want to take over for the United States, and this is why.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sophie Richardson,&nbsp;</strong>China director at Human Rights Watch, says China is attempting not only to silence critics of its record on human rights, but "to change the norms and the protocols of these institutions so that no state really can be held accountable." ’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. China &amp; the World Economy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5ANleS?track_p_id=08GItdG_s332Lv1W3AWR32b" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pd2AGi8v7b5rElII6CSyYki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5ANleS?track_p_id=08GItdG_gw1qCoQlemCZv6M" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Global Economics Quarterly: 'A Year Like No Other'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/9oalIe9QFoWGwhRxV1skHjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5ANleS?track_p_id=1E8GItdG_6GYJuRzzmnQYSs" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'A Year Like No Other'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">James Sweeney </strong>| Chief Economist &amp; CIO Americas, CreditSuisse</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China: Elevated deficit does not imply aggressive stimulus.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Only the China slides here </strong>- have a look at this outstanding deck of slides.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Global growth</strong> volatility was exceptionally tranquil from 2010 to 2019 but 2020 is a year like no other.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On many measures,</strong> the world is experiencing its largest shock in at least seventy years, and government policy measures have been used aggressively to counter it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pandemic</strong> that has caused all this still rages, though its geographic distribution has wandered.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Presently</strong> the Americas are the epicenter.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The northern hemisphere’s autumn</strong> is still a major concern, and in some places reopening plans are already beginning to reverse.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world’s output </strong>is far above its March/April lows.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And in the coming months</strong> many economic indicators will continue to improve, as if a light has been switched back on.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the threat of renewed contagion,</strong> the incomplete damage assessment process, and the ultimate implications of government policy measures suggest that a growth momentum rebound should not be mistaken for true recovery.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The big uncertainties</strong> in the second half are the virus, the further policy responses, and the political implications, including the result of the November US election.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beyond that,</strong> we will learn how a total redistribution of balance sheet health among the world’s firms, households, and governments will shape the true recovery when infections are low enough that it can begin.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In this chart deck, </strong>our economists show their most important charts for each region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The idea</strong> is to assess underlying dynamics that can help investors navigate through the partial reopening rebound, the stressful risks of later this year, and the broader implications that lie further ahead.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/gCwcLOV0kqkaJ8m3UCla0zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/JQuDELufKr4IcvnEpT8CFjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/pgmapYCZQHu7kwxgaUZQFTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/anqVhbFPO1mqbossV9Sn2zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank" style="text-decoration: none; border-bottom:1px solid #008dc8;">View in the browser</a></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 4, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4p5d2m?track_p_id=2rY5TIbhm_lbPrdwpSFbbFZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4p5d2m?track_p_id=1N5TIbhm_p3myQEyTNDqUaB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why I May Never Go To Hong Kong Again</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4p5d2m?track_p_id=5FXzDp5TIbhm_X1JMZb5bbO" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4p5d2m?track_p_id=1S5TIbhm_vqH5LawkXtb6ge" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When I was waking up this morning,</strong> it hit that I may never go to Hong Kong again.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For the past week,</strong> I’ve been researching and analyzing the new Hong Kong National Security Law’s impact on Hong Kong and its citizens.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But now I realize</strong> that in fact the law has an impact on me and maybe you.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Article 38</strong> of the law states:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“This Law</strong> shall apply to offences under this Law committed against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region from outside the Region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I know of no reason</strong> not to think it means what it appears to say:&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">it is asserting extraterritorial jurisdiction over every person on the planet,’ </em>writes Donald Clarke of George Washington University Law School.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As for what things could get you [me] in trouble: </strong>'I don’t think there’s a lot to be said about these, because the general idea is clear: don’t do anything that will annoy the Chinese Party-state.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Anything can be stretched</strong> as necessary to cover something done by the person being targeted.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the old cliché goes,</strong> 欲加之罪何患无辞 (roughly, “if you are determined to convict, you needn’t worry about the lack of grounds”).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘My short take</strong>: <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you’ve ever said anything</strong> that might offend the PRC or Hong Kong authorities, stay out of Hong Kong,’ Professor Clarke writes.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I wonder if a lifetime</strong> of advocating for Taiwan self-determination would count?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My short take: I may never go to Hong Kong again </strong>– especially if I keep publishing the China Macro Reporter.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today’s issue</strong> is all about the National Security Law.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have read</strong> so many editorials and op-eds, think tank analyses, and popular pundits’ takes on the subject.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And they all say </strong>about the same thing: the people of Hong Kong are screwed and maybe Hong Kong as a business and financial center itself is too. Got it.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So today I’ve highlighted</strong> instead some of the ways the law is bad and disconcerting.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You’ve just seen</strong> Article 38. But wait there’s more.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Hong Kong Will Be Punished’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To set the mood, </strong>we begin with a few comments from Diana Choyleva of Enodo Economics:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not only is Hong Kong</strong> going to become just another Chinese city, but because of its rebellion, the Communist Party views it as a cancer cell that must be eradicated and incised and not allowed to split.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So they will be vindictive</strong> towards Hong Kong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong</strong> really is going to be punished for what it did.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As you go deeper</strong> into the National Security Law, you see that the stage has been set for that punishment.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Gestapo-level Stuff’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s totalitarians</strong> call their new instrument for suffocating Hong Kong the&nbsp;Commission for Safeguarding National Security,’ writes George Will, right-leaning columnist for The Washington Post and public intellectual.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Commission’s blunt instrument</strong> is the ‘Office for Safeguarding National Security.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And </strong>it is scary.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The law provides that:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the course of performing duty,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> a holder of an identification document or a document of certification issued by the Office and the articles including vehicles used by the holder shall not be subject to inspection, search or detention by law enforcement officers of the Region.’</em></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> they are untouchable under Hong Kong law,’ writes Professor Clarke.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is real</strong> Gestapo-level stuff.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And here’s the kicker:</strong> it would seem&nbsp;they are untouchable under mainland law as well.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Suppose one such officer</strong> commits a deliberate homicide “in the course of duty.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not liable</strong> under Hong Kong law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Well,</strong> what about the Criminal Law of the PRC? ‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfortunately,</strong> the only PRC laws applicable in Hong Kong are those listed in Annex III to the Basic Law, and the Criminal Law is not listed there.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Incredible.</strong> It seems that officials of the Office for Safeguarding National Security can move around Hong Kong in their own little lawless bubble.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'Hong Kong’s National Security Law: a first look.’</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To repeat:</strong> ‘The general idea is clear: don’t do anything that will annoy the Chinese Party-state.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Should You Ever Go to Hong Kong Again?’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To repeat</strong>: ‘If you’ve ever said anything that might offend the PRC or Hong Kong authorities, stay out of Hong Kong.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Hong Kong Will Be Punished</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8l8G7k?track_p_id=bQqTZoyIC2227ePfcU_HBF5" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8l8G7k?track_p_id=07ePfcU_WiEoncSJxlARcak" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Way We Know Hong Kong Is Gone.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding: 0 12% 20px 12%;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0 15% 20px 15%;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/RNrqJ_JGyjwCeZ2TZKawqTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8l8G7k?track_p_id=9my6LAmV527ePfcU_fplCkI" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q_qqiskQNf8iGvLYEgWWk0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8l8G7k?track_p_id=6tYfTiV7ePfcU_zJWdNYpEP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"The Way We Know Hong Kong Is Gone"</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Diana Choyleva</strong> | Enodo Economics</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong is going to be punished for what it did.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-07-02/the-way-we-know-hong-kong-is-gone-says-enodo-economics-choyleva-video" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a> Diana’s video interview</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong is gone.</strong> The way we know Hong Kong is gone.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The multinationals</strong> based in Hong Kong has to realize here is that not only is Hong Kong going to become just another Chinese city,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘but because of its rebellion,</strong> the Communist Party views it as a cancer cell that must be eradicated and incised and not allowed to split.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So they will be vindictive</strong> towards Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Hong Kong</strong> will not get preferential status.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In my conversations with clients,</strong> I hear some of them saying, “Oh, well, we have to have a presence in China. We might as well stay in Hong Kong.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Well,</strong> it's not actually going to be that way.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong</strong> really is going to be punished for what it did.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. 'Gestapo-level Stuff'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93IaRs?track_p_id=9f2fb2LlN38f4LXC_1Od55Z" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93IaRs?track_p_id=eNIEOzomUeVg5Jc8f4LXC_D" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China extends its reign of random fear'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/hLWrCdPcfOZEiPoD_9haKzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93IaRs?track_p_id=5MjwSq8f4LXC_23kiBAbXao" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | China extends its reign of random fear - The</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">George Will</strong> | The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law mocks the rule of law.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The French revolutionaries’</strong> instrument for administering the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Reign-of-Terror" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">1793-1794 Reign of Terror</a>&nbsp;was the Committee of Public Safety.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> China’s totalitarians, displaying either ignorance of this unsavory history, or arrogance in flaunting their emulation of it, call their new instrument for suffocating Hong Kong the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-enacts-hong-kong-security-law-escalating-confrontation-with-us/2020/06/29/59ad568c-b9bb-11ea-97c1-6cf116ffe26c_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_1" rel="nofollow">Commission for Safeguarding National Security</a>.’<strong style="font-weight: bold"> [see Prof Clarke's analysis below]</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet again,</strong> actual tyranny is imposed in the supposed service of safety.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Acting as communists do, </strong>the leaders of China’s Communist Party, which is the bone and sinew of that nation’s Leninist party-state, have, less than halfway through their commitment, shredded the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-signals-plan-to-take-full-control-of-hong-kong-realigning-citys-status/2020/05/21/2c3850ee-9b48-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_3" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">agreement</a>&nbsp;to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy until 2047.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law mocks the rule of law,</strong> which requires sufficient specificity to give those subject to the law due notice of what is proscribed or prohibited.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new law</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/china-national-security-law-hong-kong-200701024705923.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">stipulates&nbsp;</a>four major offenses: separatism, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign governments.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These will be defined post facto,</strong> in capricious enforcements against those whose speech is not chilled by the law’s menacing vagueness.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Modern technologies of communication</strong> enable the world to watch darkness descend on one of the world’s most vibrant metropolises.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Modern technologies of surveillance</strong> enable Beijing to refine a deep, penetrating oppression beyond what Winston Churchill could have imagined when he&nbsp;<a href="https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1940-the-finest-hour/their-finest-hour/" rel="nofollow">warned&nbsp;</a>that Nazism’s triumph would mean the world would “sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s faux law,</strong> which echoes Stalin’s use of randomness to intensify fear, serves two purposes:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It smashes Hong Kong dissent</strong> — Leninism brooks no challenge to the party’s supremacy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it distracts attention from reports</strong> that Beijing is pioneering a sinister fusionism that melds Leninism and Stalinism with an ethno-nationalism reminiscent of fascism.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing should remember this:</strong> France’s Committee of Public Safety was&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_of_Public_Safety#:~:text=The%20Committee%20of%20Public%20Safety,phase%20of%20the%20French%20Revolution." rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">created&nbsp;</a>in April 1793.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Maximilien-Robespierre/The-Committee-of-Public-Safety-and-the-Reign-of-Terror" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Maximilien Robespierre</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> who prefigured Lenin, joined it on July 27.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One year and a day later,</strong> devoured by forces he had fomented, he was guillotined in Paris’s Place de la Révolution, now called Place de la Concorde.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s totalitarians,</strong> who have murderous French precursors, may one day have a similarly disagreeable rendezvous with their handiwork.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9LSum0?track_p_id=43xQ593litq_reZrq55lCiA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/rSuYzsxAw2qUI-9QPE5uBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9LSum0?track_p_id=bSPK2tfG1%40%40p93litq_dbyC" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Office for Safeguarding National Security</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/gUNi_Ya8zd5SUJhi6Qvnhjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9LSum0?track_p_id=dZzlWlNVzfcfRl93litq_Uv" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/gyj3NYuDPOWNXm40oid_D0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9LSum0?track_p_id=8WatK25uf93litq_H3ahkR6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Office for Safeguarding National Security</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Collection</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Donald Clarke </strong>| George Washington University Law School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is real Gestapo-level stuff.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Article 48 is very important.</strong> It provides for the establishment within the territory of Hong Kong of a special Office for Safeguarding National Security.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Let’s take a closer look</strong> at the powers of the Office and its personnel.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Here we see</strong> something really remarkable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First,</strong> Article 57 states that with respect to measures undertaken according to law (this is not a meaningful qualifier) by the Office, relevant organs, organizations, and individuals must obey. Whatever the Office says, you must do.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second,</strong> here’s Article 60. Look closely:’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The acts performed</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> in the course of duty by the Office for Safeguarding National Security of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and its staff in accordance with this Law shall not be subject to the jurisdiction of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.’</em></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the course of performing duty,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> a holder of an identification document or a document of certification issued by the Office and the articles including vehicles used by the holder shall not be subject to inspection, search or detention by law enforcement officers of the Region.’</em></li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> they are untouchable under Hong Kong law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is real</strong> Gestapo-level stuff.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And here’s the kicker:</strong> it would seem&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">they are untouchable under mainland law as well</em>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Suppose one such officer</strong> commits a deliberate homicide “in the course of duty.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not liable</strong> under Hong Kong law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Well,</strong> what about the Criminal Law of the PRC? ‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfortunately,</strong> the only PRC laws applicable in Hong Kong are those listed in Annex III to the Basic Law, and the Criminal Law is not listed there.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Incredible.</strong> It seems that officials of the Office for Safeguarding National Security can move around Hong Kong in their own little lawless bubble.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. 'Hong Kong’s National Security Law: a first look'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4y6OQK?track_p_id=2qz93U7lm_3iIwJYflfxg6y" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/rSuYzsxAw2qUI-9QPE5uBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4y6OQK?track_p_id=6HHCeRw93U7lm_xL6iGzTYG" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"> “If you are determined to convict, you needn’t worry about the lack of grounds”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/dUhNq6TNY_SmfIoEDxZ0QTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4y6OQK?track_p_id=093U7lm_33vWpewNAbaEGdy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/gyj3NYuDPOWNXm40oid_D0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4y6OQK?track_p_id=4jpeV93U7lm_sDRpAjRGsSx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong's National Security Law: a first look</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Collection</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Donald Clarke </strong>| George Washington University Law School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the old cliché goes, 欲加之罪何患无辞 (roughly, “if you are determined to convict, you needn’t worry about the lack of grounds”).’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An important point:</strong> I’m not going to talk much about the substantive offenses and their definitions in Hong Kong’s National Security Law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'I don’t think</strong> there’s a lot to be said about these, because the general idea is clear: don’t do anything that will annoy the Chinese Party-state.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The details</strong> are not that important, and most of the offenses will be familiar to those who are familiar with Chinese criminal law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If mainland practice</strong> to date is any guide—and it is—then the definitions don’t matter that much.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Anything can be stretched</strong> as necessary to cover something done by the person being targeted.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the old cliché goes,</strong> 欲加之罪何患无辞 (roughly, “if you are determined to convict, you needn’t worry about the lack of grounds”).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The key is in the institutions</strong> and procedures the law establishes and empowers.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Who has power to do what?</strong> What are the procedures under which they operate? Who appoints and pays for them? To whom are they responsible? Etc.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So it’s not the substantive crimes</strong> and their definitions that count; it’s the institutions that will investigate, prosecute, and judge them that count.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Language matters</strong> only if there are institutions that will make it matter.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This whole law</strong> is about avoiding the involvement of such institutions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Should you ever go to Hong Kong again?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5GGikS?track_p_id=5L2TiX6ld5W2_sqx6EHj3HF" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/rSuYzsxAw2qUI-9QPE5uBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5GGikS?track_p_id=6Z61Yi16ld5W2_scRfSxNSa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong's National Security Law: how dangerous is Article 38?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/X4AIxRHhTh6IvxnNjf4tGDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5GGikS?track_p_id=3gjc6ld5W2_TKAF4KgVCdHs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2Cuq5jEGrmp3Y9MvKtY3OUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5GGikS?track_p_id=eHADcXEzyN%40NVS56ld5W2_n" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong's National Security Law: how dangerous is Article 38?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Collection</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Donald Clarke </strong>| George Washington University Law School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘My short take: If you’ve ever said anything that might offend the PRC or Hong Kong authorities, stay out of Hong Kong.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Note: </strong>the following combines points made in <a href="https://thechinacollection.org/hong-kongs-national-security-law-first-look/" rel="nofollow">‘Hong Kong’s National Security Law: a first look’</a>&amp; <a href="https://thechinacollection.org/hong-kongs-national-security-law-dangerous-article-38/" rel="nofollow">‘Hong Kong’s National Security Law: how dangerous is Article 38?’</a></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many people</strong> who live outside of mainland China and Hong Kong and who have been critical of the Chinese Party-state are wondering about their safety in the wake of Hong Kong’s National Security Law’s (the “NSL” or the “Law”) Article 38, which states:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“This Law</strong> shall apply to offences under this Law committed against the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region from outside the Region by a person who is not a permanent resident of the Region.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I know of no reason</strong> not to think it means what it appears to say:&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">it is asserting extraterritorial jurisdiction over every person on the planet.’</em></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, it is clear</strong> that an act that would violate the NSL if committed in Hong Kong will also violate it, and subject the actor to potential liability, if committed outside Hong Kong, even if the actor is not a Hong Kong resident or PRC citizen and has absolutely no connection with either Hong Kong or the PRC more broadly.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Remarkably,</strong> this provision gives the Law an even broader reach than mainland criminal law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under mainland criminal law,</strong> a foreigner is not liable for an act that’s a crime under the law unless “(a) the act is punishable by a minimum of three years’ imprisonment,&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">and</em>(b) the act is a crime in the state where it is committed.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Nat Sec Law has no such limitation.’</strong></em>&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Suppose a US newspaper columnist</strong> advocates Tibetan independence in their column.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are not liable</strong> under mainland criminal law.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But they are liable</strong> under the Nat Sec Law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With a law as sweeping</strong> as this in its text, the reality could hardly be worse.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But lest anything think</strong> the above understanding is an exaggeration, I would note that despite some three days of this kind of commentary on Article 38, no PRC or Hong Kong government spokespersons have to my knowledge yet come forth to pooh-pooh this understanding as a hysterical over-reaction.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would seem</strong> that doing so would undermine the purpose of Article 38, which is to put the fear of God into all China critics the world over.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now we get to the key question:</strong> do critics of the Party-state need to fear extradition to Hong Kong?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is easier</strong> for the Hong Kong authorities to allege a crime under the NSL than it is for the PRC authorities to allege a crime under the PRC Criminal Law, because as noted above the NSL does not contain the limitations on jurisdiction we see in the PRC Criminal Law.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And allegations</strong> are all that are needed in extradition proceedings.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, the other barriers</strong> in the way of extradition still exist, and those strike me as for more important than the authorities’ modestly greater ease in alleging that the elements of a crime have been made out.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you would not get extradited</strong> (legally or illegally) to mainland China now for some act, I think it’s very unlikely you would get extradited to Hong Kong for the same kind of act.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘My short take</strong>: <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you’ve ever said anything</strong> that might offend the PRC or Hong Kong authorities, stay out of Hong Kong.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>July 1, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/645J0i?track_p_id=65EeLv18jPpSo_l2oelWlVz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/645J0i?track_p_id=dSetQKeCahXaqA8jPpSo_wl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/645J0i?track_p_id=dDZ%40RSgbeFoWtf8jPpSo_2V" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/645J0i?track_p_id=dVYhlTcjFUlwoX8jPpSo_ou" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'Hong Kong makes first arrests under China’s new national security law.'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The day came</strong> a little sooner than we thought, but it came.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘IF CHINA’S RULERS</strong> hoped the new national-security law they have imposed on Hong Kong late on June 30th would immediately cow its critics there into silence, they have been proved wrong,’ writes The Economist.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Protests to mark July 1st,</strong> the anniversary of the handover of the territory from British to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, defied both the law and a ban this year on what has become an annual event.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So the first arrests</strong> under the law came almost at once.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now the question</strong> is what do the democracies do now? As is often the case, Bill Bishop of Sinocism has a great analysis:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US runs the risk</strong> of having made a big deal about this law and then issuing a weak response that imposes relatively little cost on Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I believe</strong> that is what Xi is betting on, and certainly the utterances from other governments have been fairly milquetoast, or non-existent as in the case of most of the PRC’s neighbors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And he raises</strong> the issue most on my mind:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new Hong Kong law</strong> will likely bring much more attention to the question of what if anything the US and its allies should or can do to protect Taiwan.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Taiwan is the reddest</strong> of red lines for Xi and the CCP.'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'How much longer</strong> can the status quo between Taiwan and the PRC, and the status quo between the PRC and the US over Taiwan, hold?'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also, have a look</strong> at ‘How China Scammed Hong Kong’ by Yi-Zheng Lian.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government today</strong> isn’t violating the Basic Law, neither in letter nor in spirit, so much as connecting different dots in it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And&nbsp;</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">that&nbsp;</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">is the true horror</strong> lurking behind its original concessions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. “Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan”</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A popular slogan in Taiwan,</strong> it captures the geopolitical implications of China’s new security law in Hong Kong.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because as sad the move </strong>is for the people of Hong Kong, it is of a piece with Chinese new assertiveness in the region.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And many fear that China </strong>could miscalculate U.S. will and power and invade Taiwan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What should the U.S. do?</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Highlighted here</strong> are three views on U.S. policy toward Taiwan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Defer: ‘The risks of a conflict over Taiwan</strong> escalating out of control are very great,’ says Chas Freeman.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This needs to be approached</strong> with respect for the political achievements of people in Taiwan, but with due regard for American interests, which must come first.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And those interests</strong> dictate peace, stability, and no war with China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The price of that interest</strong> is deference to Beijing on the issue.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Confront: ‘Xi’s increasing pressure</strong> and suppression of Hong Kong and related messaging appears intended in part to intimidate Taiwan,’ write Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington should reject</strong> such pressure on Taipei, and instead link it to both ensured and judiciously increased support for Taipei in a carefully calibrated manner.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Ignore: ‘Doubts have emerged</strong> about President Trump’s personal commitment to Taiwan, especially as he tries to hold together a trade deal with China. In his new memoir, John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser, said:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“One of Trump’s favorite comparisons</strong> was to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, ‘This is Taiwan.’ ”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Then point</strong> to the Resolute desk and say, ‘This is China’ ”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So much for American commitments</strong> and obligations to another democratic ally.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My Take: </strong>Chas Freeman says, ‘This is a classic contest between ideology and interest, between the value of the word of the U.S., which affirmed that Taiwan was part of China on several occasions, and our ideological druthers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Since we made those commitments</strong> to China in the 1970s, China has not developed into the benign ‘global steward’ that policymakers had hoped for.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And Taiwan</strong> has – unexpectedly - become a thriving democracy, one filled with people who do not want to be part of China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Given these changes</strong> the U.S. should reexamine its agreements with China regarding Taiwan.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And renegotiate</strong> according to policies best suited to our times.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For my part, </strong>I would hope that that reexamination leads to an affirmation of our support for Taiwan.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And an unambiguous warning</strong> that we will defend Taiwan against an unprovoked Chinese invasion.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. A Look Back to 1955: &nbsp;'United States Foreign Policy and Formosa'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As this essay from 1955,</strong> Formosa (we now say Taiwan) has been a U.S. policy headache since the Kuomintang escaped there in 1949 after the Chinese Communists defeated them.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But at least the</strong> option of nuking China, which the author discusses, seems to be off the table.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6nChXs?track_p_id=6DdYWL69KSkzG_UvTvjwdZY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JQGXP95HYy5hVTjw-HmldUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6nChXs?track_p_id=8f3n4xeTZ9KSkzG_PYMemOb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | How China Scammed Hong Kong - The New York Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. 'Hong Kong makes first arrests under China’s new national security law.'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/75N1s0?track_p_id=avGrspZOj%40g6PvsGE_pnw3v" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/75N1s0?track_p_id=aKTzg3HHWOX6PvsGE_t%40FIS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Happy Anniversary, Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/75N1s0?track_p_id=4Wahv6PvsGE_Bhvh%40yRsbEr" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JQGXP95HYy5hVTjw-HmldUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/75N1s0?track_p_id=aZ3ulBmstuB6PvsGE_3Zs%40Y" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Happy Anniversary</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yi-Zheng Lian</strong> | New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Happy Anniversary, Hong Kong</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China chose</strong> the eve of July 1, a triple anniversary — of</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the birth</strong> of the Chinese Communist Party (1921),’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the handover</strong> of Hong Kong from Britain to China (1997) and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">a break-in</strong> of the city’s legislature by pro-democracy activists (2019) —'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘to pass</strong> a draconian national security law that will forever harm Hong Kong’s political freedoms and hobble its economic relations with the rest of the world.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7NXMC8?track_p_id=26d9IG5gE_hL1R6LqYd5Wp4" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7NXMC8?track_p_id=129IG5gE_X5f2ToWpPntZzE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Unhappy birthday - Hong Kong begins life under a new Chinese national-security law'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/gu3tTDez61r8TAmIir3-aDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7NXMC8?track_p_id=4BwYN9IG5gE_2pE6sOuHx2d" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/OkLf1Mlc3kyAoiBVHN6lXki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7NXMC8?track_p_id=09IG5gE_iTpPwIMBHUerGgT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Unhappy birthday - Hong Kong begins life under a new Chinese national-security law | China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Kill a few chickens to frighten the monkeys.”</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘IF CHINA’S RULERS</strong> hoped the new national-security law they have imposed on Hong Kong late on June 30th would immediately cow its critics there into silence, they have been proved wrong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Protests to mark July 1st,</strong> the anniversary of the handover of the territory from British to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, defied both the law and a ban this year on what has become an annual event.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So the first arrests</strong> under the law came almost at once.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the evening</strong> hundreds of people had been detained.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Police carried banners</strong> warning the law would be enforced.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They also deployed</strong> water-cannon, tear-gas and pepper-spray.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even before the law was enacted</strong> it had affected Hong Kong’s internal politics and international relations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On June 30th,</strong> Joshua Wong [see his Tweet above], a leading activist, and his young colleagues from Demosisto, a small pro-democracy party, announced it was disbanding.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Wong promised on Facebook</strong> to keep up his advocacy work as an individual: “I will continue to defend my home—Hong Kong—until they silence, obliterate me from this piece of land.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His apocalyptic tone</strong> captured the fears of other anti-China protesters.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Three small groups</strong> that have campaigned for Hong Kong’s independence also dissolved themselves.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A senior adviser in Hong Kong</strong> to the central government, Lau Siu-kai, says the aim of the law is to:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Kill a few chickens to frighten the monkeys”</strong>—to deter people with a few high-profile sentencings rather than carry out sweeping arrests.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is just how the party</strong> likes to crush dissent on the mainland.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That echoes the official line</strong> that Hong Kong has just a small number of “troublemakers”.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7fhgWG?track_p_id=aBAJLpYZ3k37ZWuly_PmpzJ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7fhgWG?track_p_id=07ZWuly_xJthFu5JH6P%40RKP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How China Scammed Hong Kong'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7fhgWG?track_p_id=2GZ7ZWuly_UfU%40BN5gTXc5F" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7fhgWG?track_p_id=2Hh7ZWuly_EvPg3%402npIvYb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China Scammed Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yi-Zheng Lian </strong>| New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government today isn’t violating the Basic Law, neither in letter nor in spirit, so much as connecting different dots in it. And&nbsp;that&nbsp;is the true horror lurking behind its original concessions.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many seem to have looked upon</strong> the first 15 years or so after Britain handed over Hong Kong to China in 1997 as the golden age of the city’s semi-autonomy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They endorsed</strong> the “one country, two systems” principle that was put forward by the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s — and enshrined in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/images/basiclaw_full_text_en.pdf" rel="nofollow">Basic Law</a>, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution — as a benign concept that would protect the city.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In their view,</strong> President Xi Jinping of China has recently reversed, even betrayed, Deng’s blueprint for Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this is faulty thinking.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it would be simplistic,</strong> as well as ultimately dangerous, to think that China has been acting in bad faith only under Mr. Xi today.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Deng hardly</strong> was a man of concessions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘During the late 1980s,</strong> while China was relatively weak, he repeatedly advised acting meek and biding one’s time.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet even during negotiations</strong> with Britain about the status of Hong Kong, it was he who insisted that Chinese soldiers should be stationed in Hong Kong after 1997, over the advice of some of his top officials.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it was Deng&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/world/asia/china-tiananmen-crackdown.html" rel="nofollow">who ordered tanks into Tiananmen Square</a>&nbsp;in 1989 to mow down peaceful demonstrators by the hundreds.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi today</strong> isn’t betraying Deng’s vision for Hong Kong back then:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He is only dutifully</strong> carrying that vision forward to what is, some three decades later, its natural, logical culmination.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Basic Law,</strong> which was designed in the late 1980s and adopted in 1990, is an inherently cynical document.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was instrumental</strong> in ensuring the smooth transfer of sovereignty from Britain in 1997 because it seemed to contain generous guarantees from China, in particular provisions that safeguarded Hong Kongers’ fundamental political liberties and promised to give them more democratic rights in the future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But many observers</strong> and major political actors in Hong Kong — including some who helped draft the Basic Law — have consistently overrated its apparent assurances, while overlooking the fact that many of those come with sleeper clauses or caveats [read about them in the full article] that can override them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government today</strong> isn’t violating the Basic Law, neither in letter nor in spirit, so much as connecting different dots in it.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'And&nbsp;</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">that&nbsp;</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">is the true horror</strong> lurking behind its original concessions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 1980s,</strong> when people in Hong Kong were worried about their post-1997 future, the Chinese government played up the concessionary parts of the Basic Law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That was the first,</strong> the good-looking, stage in a two-stage plan to absorb the city into the mainland’s universe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The inevitable second stage</strong> is unfolding today.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now that Hong Kong</strong> is under the watchful eye of both Chinese soldiers garrisoned in the city and their newly loyal local cousins — the increasingly violent and politicized Hong Kong police force — Beijing is activating the sleeper clauses of the Basic Law to feather the deathbed of the city’s autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Politicians and thought leaders</strong> in Western countries, as well as older members of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, are only beginning to realize — if they are at all — that for three decades or more they have been reading the Basic Law, and China itself, wrong.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7xs0qO?track_p_id=2qp8loe7S_yZFezoUsg6xWG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/mSKpZDA7T21BMMaFwefwGEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7xs0qO?track_p_id=dVKo4OxDVL5Owk8loe7S_Ke" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Hong Kong National Security Law is in effect.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/ohyks5gnqKeE1nqHMuQLjzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7xs0qO?track_p_id=aTPtuhVDEOh8loe7S_l3lf6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/m6v6DxmWiasHTv3CLy0ik0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7xs0qO?track_p_id=aFZ6cekwbEZ8loe7S_aQrGd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong National Security Law is in effect; CCP turns 99; Gaokao - Sinocism</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sinocism</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bill Bishop</strong> | Sinocism</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US runs the risk of having made a big deal about this law and then issuing a weak response that imposes relatively little cost on Beijing.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Hong Kong National Security law</strong> has been promulgated and is now in effect.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi and the CCP leadership</strong> were never going to back down from pushing through this law, no matter how much the Trump administration threatened.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now the US</strong> is in a bit of a bind, as the measures threatened so far look like they harm Hong Kong citizens and US interests more than they impact Xi and the CCP.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will the Trump administration blink,</strong> or will we see much more impactful moves like sanctions on major PRC financial institutions and senior Party/central government leaders and their family members?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And will the US</strong> or any other Western governments do anything meaningful for Hong Kong residents?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I still stand</strong> by my comments from the&nbsp;<a href="http://email.substack1.sinocism.com/c/eJxNUMtuxCAM_JrllgjIo9kDh176GxEBJ0EhkGLTVfr1JbutVMnP0cgaj9EES0ynOiISywhpdFb14s6smox808zhOCeAXTuv2JEn74wmF8PFk2xVXWc6wc0ErWwnIwbL-7mdgYtBd7oRll2XR52tg2BAwRekMwZgXq1EB96a95v8KIEuRONwr03cy3qUDIepIFis1hiWartKxsqsLuiK3EZxY05JLjnvGy6FbLioRY32Wz6W-6fHW8sxT0jabAX-d58ltWtvot_r5KwF7wv1d6oIISxPVvl2LH3PwdE5QtCTB6soZWD0Muz5G50HqAAP9EAE6QVeLvJhkC0rEmws9gX1J-EHlzuDCg" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">May 28 newsletter</a>:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US runs the risk</strong> of having made a big deal about this law and then issuing a weak response that imposes relatively little cost on Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I believe</strong> that is what Xi is betting on, and certainly the utterances from other governments have been fairly milquetoast, or non-existent as in the case of most of the PRC’s neighbors.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Xi and the CCP,</strong> Hong Kong political security and the territory’s place in the Motherland trump whatever increase in US-China friction may come.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the logic</strong> the two countries are now stuck in a harsh US response will only confirm to Xi and many in China that the US is hellbent on keeping China down, while a weak response from DC will add to the view already held by more than a few in Beijing that Trump and the US are paper tigers, as Mao liked to say, and Beijing can increasingly act with impunity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a toxic dynamic.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new Hong Kong law</strong> will likely bring much more attention to the question of what if anything the US and its allies should or can do to protect Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is no longer</strong> any reasonable prospect of “peaceful reunification” as the CCP calls it. Taiwan President Tsai tweeted a few hours ago:’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/L8OYZRgVctWBHRpd_Kqh4Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8G2LAW?track_p_id=1r5YuEik_c3sMPWb5%40uvhfs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/m6v6DxmWiasHTv3CLy0ik0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8G2LAW?track_p_id=2wj5YuEik_YuDVQCn2yukYr" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong National Security Law is in effect; CCP turns 99; Gaokao - Sinocism</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Taiwan is the reddest</strong> of red lines for Xi and the CCP.'&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'It is also a democracy</strong> of nearly 24 million people that has won many more friends over the last few months with its stellar handling of the pandemic.'&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'How much longer</strong> can the status quo between Taiwan and the PRC, and the status quo between the PRC and the US over Taiwan, hold?'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. “Today Hong Kong, Tomorrow Taiwan!”</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/JihMcoLC7-eNtssLrfEjQDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8YCfUe?track_p_id=2xD5bBniA_gWun6mcCJiW2m" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8YCfUe?track_p_id=93EVEAjuAp5bBniA_b3fWyz" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'As China Strengthens Grip on Hong Kong, Taiwan Sees a Threat'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/eZcXDwK8c8CPJMgMknX-_jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;background:#fff;"><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, center, has repeatedly pledged to defend the island’s sovereignty against threats from China. Credit...Taiwan Presidential Office, via Associated Press</h3></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8YCfUe?track_p_id=5tabNC5bBniA_UOPNUAzh5a" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/gbqnrQCkZM29mdUxDlBmhki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8YCfUe?track_p_id=8xxdfqj4K5bBniA_H5Bjy2J" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">As China Strengthens Grip on Hong Kong, Taiwan Sees a Threat - The New York Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new security rules for Hong Kong has raised fears that China will move more aggressively to bring Taiwan, too, under its control.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leader, Xi Jinping,</strong> has long tried to convince Taiwan that unification was a historical inevitability, alternately enticing the democratic island with economic incentives while bluntly warning that any move toward formal independence would be answered with military force.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, the incentives are gone</strong> and the warnings seem more ominous following Mr. Xi’s swift move to strengthen China’s grip on Hong Kong, a semiautonomous territory that only last year&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/01/world/asia/xi-jinping-taiwan-china.html" rel="nofollow">he held out as a model&nbsp;</a>for Taiwan’s future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new security rules</strong> for Hong Kong that China passed this week — without input from the city’s Beijing-backed leadership — have made Mr. Xi’s promise of autonomy under the “one country, two systems” framework seem hollow.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it has raised fears</strong> that China will move more aggressively to bring Taiwan, too, under its control.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Hong Kong has become less free,</strong> so our sense of fear has increased,” said Chen Po-wei, a Taiwanese lawmaker who supports independence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘ “Because of China’s nature, there is a high possibility of conflict.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi,</strong> China’s most powerful leader in decades, has shown a penchant for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/24/world/asia/china-hong-kong-taiwan.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">provocative actions</a>, especially lately, with the world distracted by the devastating spread of the coronavirus.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent weeks,</strong> China has buzzed Taiwan’s territorial airspace almost daily.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It accused Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen,</strong> of carrying out a “<a href="http://www.gwytb.gov.cn/wyly/202006/t20200622_12282890.htm" rel="nofollow">separatist plot</a>” by speaking at an international democracy forum.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has warned</strong> the Taiwan government to stop providing shelter to Hong Kong political activists, who are flocking to what they call the last bastion of freedom in the Chinese-speaking world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Part of the game </strong>is making people in Taiwan feel helpless and trying to direct their frustration against leaders in Taipei,” said Matthew P. Funaiole, a senior fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Funaiole said Beijing</strong> was also looking at how the United States and other countries would respond.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We’ve seen plenty of examples</strong> of China testing and prodding and doing just enough to stay below the threshold of eliciting a strong response from the U.S.,” he added.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The repeated pledges by Ms. Tsai</strong> to preserve the island’s sovereignty now set the stage for even greater tensions in the months ahead.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi’s attempts</strong> to rein in dissent in Hong Kong have only heightened a sense of crisis and galvanized pro-independence forces who have pressed Ms. Tsai to do more.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We are very disappointed</strong> that China is not able to carry out its promises,” Ms. Tsai said on Tuesday after the Hong Kong security law was passed.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It proves</strong> that ‘one country, two systems’ is not feasible.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The possibility of a military conflict</strong> between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the two sides</strong> are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As always,</strong> Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself, and the Trump administration has cleared the way for the sale of weapons to the island, including F-16 fighter jets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Doubts have emerged</strong> about President Trump’s personal commitment to Taiwan, especially as he tries to hold together a trade deal with China. In his new memoir, John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser, said:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“One of Trump’s favorite comparisons</strong> was to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, ‘This is Taiwan.’ ”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Then point</strong> to the Resolute desk and say, ‘This is China’ ”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So much for American commitments</strong> and obligations to another democratic ally.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The lack of vocal support from Mr. Trump</strong> — who shortly after his election took a telephone call from Ms. Tsai, infuriating Beijing — has contributed to fears in Taiwan that China might be emboldened to take aggressive action.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8qMzom?track_p_id=dhxZddZsVeiNAI7uwa5u_bO" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/hzpVC3f-tQtl7XtjIBz6pki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8qMzom?track_p_id=07uwa5u_1xGxh4JGMDejcgV" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chas Freeman on U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/GBwzcsysPXXduVewmtoCDTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8qMzom?track_p_id=6NmpasA7uwa5u_RYXO3kHHP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3u31A4drJ5u_Hg3m5KYEUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8qMzom?track_p_id=6JFxvAC7uwa5u_NpO2U3cw6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chas Freeman on Picking Fights the U.S. Can Win</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Wire China</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas Freeman</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The risks of a conflict over Taiwan escalating out of control are very great.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://chasfreeman.net/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas W. Freeman Jr.&nbsp;</strong></em></a><em style="font-style: italic">is one of the world’s foremost authorities on China, and served for years as one of America’s top diplomats.</em></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;He was President Richard Nixon’s </strong></em><em style="font-style: italic">principal interpreter on his historic 1972 trip to China.</em></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Freeman</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> went on to be the charge d’affaires at the newly opened U.S. Embassy in Beijing, where he frequently interacted with Chinese leaders like Deng Xiaoping and Zhou Enlai.</em></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He later served</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> as the U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.</em></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Freeman </strong></em><em style="font-style: italic">is now a&nbsp;</em><a href="https://watson.brown.edu/people/fellows/freeman" rel="nofollow"><em style="font-style: italic">senior fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs</em></a><em style="font-style: italic">.</em></li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Why should the U.S. accept Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is a part of the People’s Republic?’&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas Freeman: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese Civil War</strong> did not come to a conclusion, because on June 27, 1950, the U.S. interposed the Seventh Fleet between the contending Chinese forces.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So, the Chinese Civil War</strong> was suspended; it has not ended.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our position from June 27, 1950,</strong> has been that we would like to see this resolved peacefully, rather than through the use of force.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We oppose unilateral change</strong> imposed by either side; that’s our official position.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years,</strong> we have begun to drift more and more into open support of self-determination for Taiwan because it evolved into a democratic society.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When I first lived there,</strong> it was totalitarian under Chiang Kai-shek, but it has become a robust democracy with a great deal of respect for civil and human rights.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it is</strong> from that perspective ideologically admirable.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is a classic contest</strong> between ideology and interest, between the value of the word of the U.S., which affirmed that Taiwan was part of China on several occasions, and our ideological druthers.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is not a problem</strong> to be approached lightly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are in fact,</strong> contesting the borders and the territorial integrity of a nuclear power.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We never did</strong> that with the Soviet Union.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The risks of a conflict over Taiwan</strong> escalating out of control are very great.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This needs to be approached</strong> with respect for the political achievements of people in Taiwan, but with due regard for American interests, which must come first.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And those interests</strong> dictate peace, stability, and no war with China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The price of that interest</strong> is deference to Beijing on the issue.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have had diplomatic relations with Beijing</strong> since January 1, 1979, and have managed those in a way that actually facilitated the emergence of democracy in Taiwan where there was none.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And we have not</strong> in any respect harmed Taiwan, except in terms of its obsession with face.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Are you worried that we might be heading towards armed conflict with China?’&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chas Freeman:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Yes.</strong> We are in the process of violating, directly or indirectly, almost every assurance we’ve given the Chinese on the question of Taiwan:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d203" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shanghai Communiqué&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">in 1972,</strong> the&nbsp;<a href="https://photos.state.gov/libraries/ait-taiwan/171414/ait-pages/prc_e.pdf" rel="nofollow">normalization communiqué&nbsp;</a>of 1979, the&nbsp;<a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1981-1988/china-communique" rel="nofollow">arms sales agreement of 1982</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are not in compliance</strong> with any of our assurances anymore, and the Chinese in response have begun to build a military capacity to devastate Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We no longer</strong> have the ability to block that but are talking and passing legislation as though we did.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are essentially leading with our chins,</strong> and we are dependent on the self-restraint of Beijing, rather than our own restraint, to keep the peace in the Taiwan Strait.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8XMhFY?track_p_id=8z3zyvvHe9EvIty_2xXjeb3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/tAhT8nTWlZ2I2FDjCkQDxEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8XMhFY?track_p_id=ca6Mx3otGnb3X9EvIty_6h3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Policy Options to Impose Costs on Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of Hong Kong'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8XMhFY?track_p_id=bUmHNUfY31o59EvIty_svDO" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/tAhT8nTWlZ2I2FDjCkQDxEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8XMhFY?track_p_id=2i39EvIty_1ZSsJHafdSVod" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“Policy Options to Impose Costs on Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of Hong Kong: Version 1.0”&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China SignPost</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gabe Collins</strong> | Baker Institute for Public Policy</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andrew Erickson</strong> | Naval War College</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s increasing pressure and suppression of Hong Kong and related messaging appears intended in part to intimidate Taiwan. Washington should reject</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"></em><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">such pressure.'</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing has chosen</strong> to breach legal commitments it made to assure Hong Kong’s autonomy until at least 2047, most prominently through the sweeping national security law it is preparing to impose.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘PRC actions</strong> are part of a broader pattern of revisionist and destabilizing behavior across an arc stretching from the Himalayas to the East China Sea and deep into Southeast Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing increasingly</strong> operates according to a “might makes right” approach that eschews institutional, legal, and normative constraints and instead relies on raw coercion.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such behavior</strong> undermines the regional diplomatic, economic, and security architecture that suppressed interstate warfare in the Asia-Pacific region and drove robust economic growth and improvements in human wellbeing over the past 70 years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Protecting the structures</strong> now that helped the Asia-Pacific become a global engine for growth and human development is the first critical step to making them even stronger in the future.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But getting to that future</strong> requires imposing costs on PRC revisionism today, holding our ground, and inspiring others to stand with us.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The policy measures</strong> outlined in this essay are not just about saving Hong Kong, its people, way of life, and unique entrepôt role.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing has already smothered</strong> those flames such that the previous fire can likely never be revived.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The core importance</strong> of U.S. actions focused on Hong Kong now increasingly far transcends the territory and instead entails taking a strong stance to demonstrate to Beijing that revisionism has real costs and to signal to allies and partners that Washington will stand with them in the face of coercive pressure from the PRC.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> unless met with robust and sustained pushback that begins to shift the cost/benefit calculus, the blade likely will not stop in Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Summary of Key Recommended Policy Measures’</strong></span></p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Create safe havens</strong> in the United States and allied/partner countries to absorb Hong Kongers fleeing political persecution and other forms of repression as Beijing exerts power more directly over daily life and activities in Hong Kong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Prohibit the export of semiconductor</strong> manufacturing equipment and support services, as well as other core dual-use technologies, to Mainland China and Hong Kong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Amend Section 241</strong> and other relevant portions of the Countering America’s Adversaries with Sanctions (“CAATSA”) law in order to leverage an effective and existing set of options for calibrated, targeted measures against selected PRC Mainland and Hong Kong entities and persons whereby pressure can be modulated in response to events.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Intensify Freedom of Navigation</strong> and presence operations to challenge illegal PRC maritime claims and land reclamation activities in the South China Sea and East China Sea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Review and enhance</strong> finely-calibrated and-targeted aspects of the U.S. diplomatic, economic, and security relationships with Taiwan.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Option 2: Hold the Line Beyond Hong Kong, Starting with Taiwan’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s increasing pressure</strong> and suppression of Hong Kong and related messaging appears intended in part to intimidate Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington should reject</strong> such pressure on Taipei, and instead link it to both ensured and judiciously increased support for Taipei in a carefully calibrated manner.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of the best ways to deter Beijing</strong> from smothering Hong Kong is to show that such aggressive actions will generate progressive American interactions with, and defenses of, Taiwan that will be self-defeating to PRC expansionism thereto.’ &nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Part of the message</strong> that the PRC is sending is essentially that what is happening to Hong Kong is Hong Kong-specific, since Hong Kong is part of the PRC.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has obvious</strong> implications for Taiwan but is designed to make it easy for other U.S. allies and key partners to write-off valid concerns.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A U.S. approach emphasizing</strong> the interconnections between events in Hong Kong, and the interests of Taiwan and other regional actors, can force the PRC to fight on multiple fronts concurrently, thus imposing greater diplomatic and financial costs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. A Look Back to 1955</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5LVSRU?track_p_id=bMtWhPG14Hi16LEAZC_s%40HB" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5LVSRU?track_p_id=7bbWEmKi6LEAZC_qhFvQtLY" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1955: 'United States Foreign Policy and Formosa'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/R6N2_1vwDY7RPpUN_oDElDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5LVSRU?track_p_id=4Z1JP6LEAZC_2iWGWmEia%40k" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_O-BCf99IEy7jYiTcYt9NEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5LVSRU?track_p_id=aqQwUH6cFPh6LEAZC_Shvse" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">United States Foreign Policy and Formosa</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Arthur Dean</strong> | Special U.S. Ambassador to Korea &amp; senior partner at Sullivan and Cromwell</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘United States foreign policy seems to have three major alternative methods of dealing with Formosa.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This essay</strong> shows that the U.S. problems in managing the Taiwan issue in 1955 haven’t changed all that much.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘FORMOSA [Taiwan]</strong>--symbol of the struggle between freedom and Communism in the Orient--poses a test of how far United States foreign policy can combine the ideals of freedom with the flexible realism required by the harsh facts of world politics.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘United States foreign policy</strong> seems to have three major alternative methods of dealing with Formosa.’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first</strong> is to acquiesce in frightened demands (made, for example, by prominent members of the British Labor Party) that we abandon Formosa to the Communist Chinese.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second</strong> is to insist that the Communist rule of the mainland should be formally ignored, regardless of what the alternatives may be or what they hold in prospect for us.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The third</strong>, an intermediate position, is to accept, albeit unhappily, that at the present time the Peking government controls continental China and that any prospect of stabilizing the Far East may of necessity entail that we negotiate with it.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>