6/27/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 27, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89apEm?track_p_id=b2mjBXUSEefA5gpc3K_%40JTY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89apEm?track_p_id=3kbL5gpc3K_yBQfJkULv4aK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Some Big 'Whys's'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89apEm?track_p_id=5aILrj5gpc3K_BVthb3MLhH" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89apEm?track_p_id=byzOn5i5WYIg5gpc3K_KvIL" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here's a short intro about the topics in today's issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Explaining China’s Economic Resilience’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Too bad</strong> the President and Mr. Lighthizer couldn’t have read this essay before slapping on tariffs to induce China to change its trade practices and economy. As Zhang Jun of Fudan University points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world has not yet fully appreciated</strong> the significance of China's inward shift of economic gravity away from “external circulation.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s critics</strong> are mistaken in assuming that the country’s continued economic growth depends almost entirely on the maintenance of the global free-trade system and access to Western technology.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although China is undoubtedly</strong> an important global manufacturer, the real drivers of its economic performance over the last decade or so have been rapid growth in its huge purchasing power and fixed-asset investments – including in the country’s thriving technology sector.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He's dead wrong</strong> about the importance of Western technology (think semi-conductors), but he is certainly right about the intentional restructuring of China’s economy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I cannot tell you</strong> how much bad China analysis comes from not understanding ‘the country’s inward shift of economic gravity away from “external circulation.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So be alert and beware!</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> <strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'How American Hegemony Ends: The Unraveling of American Power'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Could </strong>it be true?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Predictions of American decline</strong> and a shift in international order are far from new—and they have been consistently wrong.’ </li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this time</strong> really is different.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I justify </strong>including this because, even though the piece doesn’t mention China, U.S. power relative to China is fundamental.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the truth</strong> is I included it today because the entire essay disturbed me.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I am usually </strong>the most optimistic person I know about America’s ability to right itself after any buffeting.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For some time,</strong> though, I have begun to have doubts that this essay fed.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I’d be very interested </strong>in hearing your take.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> <strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘U.S.-China Relations: Two Views’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Who’s to blame</strong> for the bad relationship between the U.S. and China? According to Tom Friedman, in a widely cited op-ed:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are getting divorced,</strong> after 40 years of being one couple, two systems, because China <em style="font-style: italic">badly overreached </em>and America <em style="font-style: italic">badly underperformed.’</em></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He then explains</strong> the problems on both sides.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the shortcomings</strong> for each that he cites seem so far in the rearview mirror as to not be useful in dealing with the issues at hand.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">M<strong style="font-weight: bold">ore relevant </strong>are comments by Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s global standing</strong> was weakening long before Trump arrived.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem:</strong> “most nations don’t adhere to American moral standards.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is certainly true of China,</strong> which has its own set of values and priorities.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And just as the US fears</strong> foreign interference in its elections, China, viewing internal stability and national security as vital to its development, fears foreign interference in its domestic affairs.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘The Case for the Trump Administration's Approach to Trade’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I applauded</strong> when President Trump decided to confront China on trade and economic issues.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But I was shocked</strong> that the tool of choice was tariffs.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s economy </strong>is vastly less export-dependent than before. So as Nathaniel Talpin points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Broad-based</strong> unilateral tariffs are relatively ineffective.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s economy</strong> is simply too large and too well integrated into global trade networks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese exports</strong> end up elsewhere, diluting tariffs’ impact.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While tariffs could hurt,</strong> they’re not enough to do much more than persuade China to buy stuff it needs anyway and speed up some reforms already in the works, both to get the U.S. off its back.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Oh wait</strong>…isn’t that what happened?</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So I read USTR Robert Lighthizer’s explanation</strong> of Trump trade policy with more than a little skepticism.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And</strong> - my take – that was the right attitude.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 5. ‘China Won’t Win the Race for AI Dominance’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If you are worried</strong> about China beating the U.S. in the AI race, this article will give you comfort.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China, if anything,</strong> looks less likely to overtake the United States in artificial intelligence than Japan looked to dominate in computers in the 1980s.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For while China is rich in data</strong> and has excelled in refining technology invented elsewhere, much impedes it from becoming the site of the next big breakthrough that artificial intelligence sorely needs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The impediments:</strong> a systemic inability to nurture innovation.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With this</strong> comes a warning:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has critical advantages that should enable it to remain the world’s leader in artificial intelligence.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If it cedes that position to China,</strong> the reason will likely be that Washington has tried to emulate the Chinese model by propping up national champions rather than embracing the competition and dynamism that have made the United States the world’s technological front-runner for more than a century.’</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To read the original article, click the title.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. China's Shifting Economic Center of Gravity</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4j84NU?track_p_id=7xcsYIW26Q2EW6_k6pFe3XV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4j84NU?track_p_id=6K5QAVU6Q2EW6_55peYdgiP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Explaining China’s Economic Resilience </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Aa35aAvegddfM1kipeDtajl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4j84NU?track_p_id=efeyVMlg3WzDIfD6Q2EW6_K" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YzsqSkxbw2GWcnt2aJ61OUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4j84NU?track_p_id=c3ov1RPHKYEd36Q2EW6_uwt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Explaining China’s Economic Resilience </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Zhang Jun</strong> | Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University </h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s critics are mistaken in assuming that the country’s continued economic growth depends almost entirely on the maintenance of the global free-trade system and access to Western technology.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Fear of China’s growing economic clout</strong> drives many countries’ foreign-trade and investment decisions these days, and not only in the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Concerns about the dependence</strong> of global manufacturing on China have prompted calls to reshore production and cut the country out of global supply chains.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the US</strong> is even threatening to stifle the Chinese economy through technological <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/has-the-great-decoupling-gone-viral-by-kevin-rudd-2020-02" rel="nofollow">decoupling</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China’s critics</strong> are mistaken in assuming that the country’s continued economic growth depends almost entirely on the maintenance of the global free-trade system and access to Western technology.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although China is undoubtedly</strong> an important global manufacturer, the real drivers of its economic performance over the last decade or so have been rapid growth in its huge purchasing power and fixed-asset investments – including in the country’s thriving technology sector.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world has not yet fully appreciated</strong> the significance of the country’s inward shift of economic gravity away from “external circulation.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is partly</strong> because many economists have instead been busy criticizing China’s investment expansion and highlighting the potential debt risks arising from it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result,</strong> politicians in America and many other countries still think that the most effective way to contain China is to target its position in global trade and supply chains.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> despite the ongoing shift in its economic gravity, China will certainly not have an incentive to disengage from global technology supply chains or retreat into isolation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the contrary,</strong> it will remain an active participant in and contributor to global trade and investment.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And in opening up</strong> more access to its domestic market to foreign investors, China will further support globalization by helping to correct global trade imbalances.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Efforts to stimulate domestic demand</strong> will create <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-global-economic-position-stronger-after-covid19-by-zhang-jun-2020-04" rel="nofollow">further expansion and opportunities </a>for domestic and foreign investors, thus boosting future global economic growth.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is therefore naive to believe</strong> that forced technological decoupling, trade sanctions, or forced changes to global supply chains will put an end to China’s future economic expansion.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If critics</strong> are too short-sighted to see this, it will be their loss.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6eYnM8?track_p_id=06moXhm_vE6I4fzizZbWEkf" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/x7OkWmGpfqqa6FOFa9Ze3Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6eYnM8?track_p_id=3jZg6moXhm_ptOcLsQ3cRFd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China and the world: Inside a changing economic relationship </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/gCz2zi8CaZGoRz8LKdZkgTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6eYnM8?track_p_id=06moXhm_UOKQut4%40hZrGVvi" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/MO2obFSQ-NWWHi5hUQSzJ0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6eYnM8?track_p_id=6gr6hPK6moXhm_Gkne5Nf4O" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China and the world: Inside a changing economic relationship | McKinsey</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">McKinsey Global Institute</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s exposure to the world peaked in 2007.'</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This a 2018 report confirms </strong>much of what Zhang Jun asserts above.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s exposure to the world</strong> (measured by the magnitude of flows with the rest of the world relative to its economy) has declined over the past decade.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> the world’s exposure to China (the magnitude of flows with China relative to the global economy) has increased since 2000.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)</strong> analyzed the mutual exposure of China and the rest of the world on trade, technology, and capital.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We found</strong> that from 2000 to 2017, the world’s exposure to China has increased on all three dimensions, and the aggregate index rose from 0.4 in 2000 to 1.2 in 2017.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In contrast</strong>, China’s exposure to the world peaked at 0.9 in 2007 and had declined to 0.6 by 2017 (Exhibit 2).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Predictions of American Decline: This Time is Different</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yekVM?track_p_id=ejH%40OUD4kz5WaHZ4wyILm_h" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yekVM?track_p_id=7P3EdbdZ4wyILm_zO3U6gZo" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How American Hegemony Ends: The Unraveling of American Power'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yekVM?track_p_id=ektmovMstkGTyvT4wyILm_E" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F3vbn_ezpMK54V6MTZOc4ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8yekVM?track_p_id=2XB4wyILm_VY12ksJGJ%40HBT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How American Hegemony Ends: The Unraveling of American Power'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Alexander Cooley</strong> | Barard College</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Daniel H. Nexon</strong> | Georgetown University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. global leadership is not simply in retreat; it is unraveling. And the decline is not cyclical but permanent.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Predictions of American decline</strong> and a shift in international order are far from new—and they have been consistently wrong.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this time</strong> really is different.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The very forces</strong> that made U.S. hegemony so durable before are today driving its dissolution. Three developments enabled the post–Cold War U.S.-led order.’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First,</strong> with the defeat of communism, the United States faced no major global ideological project that could rival its own.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second,</strong> with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and its accompanying infrastructure of institutions and partnerships, weaker states lacked significant alternatives to the United States and its Western allies when it came to securing military, economic, and political support.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And third,</strong> transnational activists and movements were spreading liberal values and norms that bolstered the liberal order.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> those same dynamics have turned against the United States: a vicious cycle that erodes U.S. power has replaced the virtuous cycles that once reinforced it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the rise of great powers</strong> such as China and Russia, autocratic and illiberal projects rival the U.S.-led liberal international system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Developing countries</strong>—and even many developed ones—can seek alternative patrons rather than remain dependent on Western largess and support.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And illiberal,</strong> often right-wing transnational networks are pressing against the norms and pieties of the liberal international order that once seemed so implacable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In short,</strong> U.S. global leadership is not simply in retreat; it is unraveling.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the decline</strong> is not cyclical but permanent.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. U.S.-China Relations: Two Views</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ABCDI?track_p_id=emyIhgv3fe14xjH4tZNq2_s" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ABCDI?track_p_id=7A6fibXo4tZNq2_biqaQMeR" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China and America Are Heading Toward Divorce'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/ap9FSjz4N1mHJUeVhaQDhDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ABCDI?track_p_id=c6agamwpvm3Ac4tZNq2_Mh3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/9OJTxDeCkqGJRU9t30NN-ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ABCDI?track_p_id=3AE34tZNq2_wor%40r43Y4M3%40" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | China and America Are Heading Toward Divorce - The New York Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Thomas Friedman</strong> | The New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. and China are getting divorced, after 40 years of being one couple, two systems, because China </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">badly overreached</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold"> and America </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">badly underperformed.’</strong></em></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The real question</strong> the Chinese should be asking themselves is not who will be America’s next president, but rather:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Who in China</strong> lost America?”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Because the real story</strong> is that the U.S. and China are heading for a divorce.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The divorce papers</strong> will just say the cause was “irreconcilable differences.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Mom and Dad</strong> know better.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are getting divorced,</strong> after 40 years of being one couple, two systems, because China <em style="font-style: italic">badly overreached </em>and America <em style="font-style: italic">badly underperformed.’</em></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But both sides</strong> are not equally to blame.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Xi era in U.S.-China relations,</strong> which began in 2012, has led the relationship steadily downhill.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China went too far</strong> on a broad range of issues.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Start</strong> with business.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For many years</strong> U.S. companies thought they had enough market share inside China that they would tolerate the stealing of intellectual property and other trade abuses China engaged in.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the last decade,</strong> China started to overreach, and the American Chamber of Commerce in China began to complain louder and louder.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gradually,</strong> many in the U.S. business community, which was a key buffer in the relationship, began to endorse Donald Trump’s hard-line approach (although they don’t like paying tariffs).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since Xi took power</strong> and made himself effectively president for life and tightened the Communist Party’s control over all matters,’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. journalists</strong> working in China have had their access sharply curtailed;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has become</strong> more aggressive in projecting its power into the South China Sea;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘it’s become more fixated</strong> on subsidizing its high-tech start-ups to dominate key industries by 2025;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘it is imposing</strong> a new national security law to curtail longstanding freedoms in Hong Kong;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘it’s stepped up its bullying of Taiwan,</strong> taken a very aggressive approach toward India and intensified its internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘it’s </strong><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-something-has-to-change-michael-kovrigs-letters-detail-life-in-a/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">jailed two innocent Canadians</strong></a> to swap for a detained Chinese businesswoman; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘it even hammered countries</strong> that dared to ask for an independent inquiry into how the coronavirus emerged in Wuhan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After Australia’s prime minister</strong> called for such an investigation in April, China’s ambassador to Australia brazenly threatened economic retaliation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And a few weeks later</strong> China cut off beef and barley imports from Australian companies, citing bogus health and trade violations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is the kind of crude bullying</strong> that has helped to strip China of virtually every ally it had in Washington — allies for a policy that basically said,’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We have different systems,</strong> but let’s build bridges with China where possible, engage where it is mutually beneficial and draw redlines where necessary.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That balanced policy approach </strong>always had to contain serious tensions, ugliness and disagreements on issues — but in the end it delivered enough mutual benefit to be sustained for 40 years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That balance</strong> is now off as far as many Americans are concerned.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I am one of them.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if China</strong> has increasingly overreached, America has increasingly underperformed.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not just </strong>that China reportedly has fewer than 5,000 Covid-19 deaths and America has over 120,000 — and the virus started there.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not just</strong> that it takes about 22 hours on Amtrak to go from New York to Chicago, while it takes 4.5 hours to take the bullet train from Beijing to Shanghai, slightly farther apart.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s not just</strong> that the pandemic has accelerated China’s transformation to a cashless, digital society.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s that we have reduced investments</strong> in the true sources of our strength — infrastructure, education, government-funded scientific research, immigration and the right rules to incentivize productive investment and prevent excessive risk-taking.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And we have stopped</strong> leveraging our greatest advantage over China — that we have allies who share our values and China only has customers who fear its wrath.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So now China</strong> is offering sweetheart deals to U.S. and other foreign companies to come into or stay in China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And its market</strong> is now so big, few companies can resist.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China respects</strong> one thing only: leverage.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> we have too little and China has too much.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4zzKTI?track_p_id=d6FXviYaQbE5bP7G27uI_E6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4zzKTI?track_p_id=efwGV5%40BuHzuocC7G27uI_V" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The American Muddle'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/iSrtNgiyvPeOOkC8tKVZ5Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left; padding:1.5% 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;background-color:#fff;"><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Andrew Sheng</h3></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4zzKTI?track_p_id=1g7G27uI_6MT3y6BGsc2zjE" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/mM04yEB5CnvaGD2hpxxUL0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4zzKTI?track_p_id=8bPdtZGSc7G27uI_H45zMRT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The American Muddle'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andrew Sheng</strong> | Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xiao Geng</strong> | President of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s highly divisive, antagonistic style has all but precluded any consensus, particularly with regard to China. What is left is a knee-jerk repudiation of all things Chinese.’ </strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s global standing</strong> was weakening long before Trump arrived.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its position as a superpower</strong> depends on its economic influence, technological prowess, financial dominance, and military might.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But its interest in</strong> – and approach to – global leadership has always been shaped by its self-perception as a moral authority, bearing universal values that others should adopt as their own.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem,</strong> which the geostrategist George Friedman has <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/252382/the-storm-before-the-calm-by-george-friedman/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">pointed out</a>, is that “most nations don’t adhere to American moral standards.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is certainly true of China,</strong> which has its own set of values and priorities.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This divergence</strong> has contributed substantially to the conclusion in the US that China is the country’s main strategic rival.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That notion</strong> has wide bipartisan support in the US.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In fact,</strong> Trump’s Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, also sought to shift America’s strategic focus toward managing China’s rise – albeit far less combatively than Trump – but was thwarted by continued upheaval in the Middle East.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s highly divisive,</strong> antagonistic style has all but precluded any consensus, particularly with regard to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is left</strong> is a knee-jerk repudiation of all things Chinese.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US cannot recapture</strong> the hegemonic global leadership of the past, and it shouldn’t try.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world is shifting toward a multipolar order,</strong> in which, as Harvard’s <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/joseph-s-nye" rel="nofollow">Joseph S. Nye </a>has <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/joseph-s-nye/the-future-of-power/9781586488925/" rel="nofollow">explained</a>, power is diffused among multiple nation-states, multinational corporations, non-state actors, and diverse communities (in terms of race, gender, religion, and culture).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> challenges are becoming increasingly global in nature, with the pandemic being a case in point.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the US,</strong> the rational response would be to lead a cooperative effort to address shared challenges, including the looming recession, technological disruption, and climate change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For this to work,</strong> all stakeholders – including US rivals like China, Russia, and Iran – must be involved.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump has proved himself</strong> to be anything but rational.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But longstanding and bipartisan pretensions</strong> of moral exceptionalism, the perception of China as a strategic competitor, rising domestic concerns, and a lack of policy clarity suggest that, even if he is voted out in November, the US-led cooperation the world needs will not soon emerge.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is the message</strong> China has received, at least.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And just as the US fears</strong> foreign interference in its elections, China, viewing internal stability and national security as vital to its development, fears foreign interference in its domestic affairs.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given this,</strong> the US-China rivalry will probably not wane any time soon.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. ‘The Case for the Trump Administration's Approach to Trade’: Robert Lighthizer</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xVc8G?track_p_id=4QlCK8D95kE_PeRcqV2LO6L" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xVc8G?track_p_id=4rMDX8D95kE_XGWzhb16WnM" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How to Make Trade Work for Workers: Charting a Path Between Protectionism and Globalism'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/4bVKuH9xKTw1y_3_AN2YuTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xVc8G?track_p_id=aoP5T2hVayD8D95kE_LI5hc" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/m8xeokoXLCvk3PFl-VpWE0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xVc8G?track_p_id=5hmbgv8D95kE_3cDRdGtrAw" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Case for the Trump Administration's Approach to Trade</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Robert Lighthizer</strong> | United States Trade Representative</h3><h2 style="display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Where trade is concerned, most Americans want the same thing: balanced outcomes that keep trade flows strong while ensuring that working people have access to steady, well-paying jobs’.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new coronavirus</strong> has challenged many long-held assumptions.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This should also</strong> be a moment for renewed discussions—and, hopefully, a stronger national consensus—about the future of U.S. trade policy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That debate should start</strong> with a fundamental question: What should the objective of trade policy be?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some view trade</strong> through the lens of foreign policy, arguing that tariffs should be lowered or raised in order to achieve geopolitical goals.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Others view trade</strong> strictly through the lens of economic efficiency, contending that the sole objective of trade policy should be to maximize overall output.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But what most Americans want</strong> is <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-12-11/free-trade-paradox" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">something else</a>: a trade policy that supports the kind of society they want to live in.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To that end,</strong> the right policy is one that makes it possible for most citizens, including those without college educations, to access the middle class through stable, well-paying jobs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is precisely the approach</strong> the Trump administration is taking.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has broken</strong> with the orthodoxies of free-trade religion at times.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But contrary</strong> to what critics have charged, it has not embraced protectionism and autarky.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> it has sought to balance the benefits of trade liberalization with policies that prioritize the dignity of work.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/60R55U?track_p_id=eXzrUsMXlWo5gtv8lm9c6_U" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/60R55U?track_p_id=7uqMoQUY8lm9c6_EsM3aUaX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Using Trade to Bring China to Heel</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/60R55U?track_p_id=5W3c5X8lm9c6_EddJ23ys6l" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/m8xeokoXLCvk3PFl-VpWE0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/60R55U?track_p_id=96N1FAwkw%408lm9c6_cjU%403e" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Case for the Trump Administration's Approach to Trade</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Robert Lighthizer</strong> | United States Trade Representative</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether there will be a Phase 2 depends on whether China complies with the terms of Phase 1 and whether it is willing to fundamentally change its model of state-run capitalism.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The principles of a worker-focused trade policy</strong> should be front and center as the United States confronts two of the most significant trade challenges it will face in the coming years:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘market-distorting</strong> state capitalism in China and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a dysfunctional WTO.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without much success,</strong> the George W. Bush and Obama administrations tried to correct these problems at the WTO.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our team</strong> has taken a different approach.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We spent much</strong> of the first year of the Trump administration investigating China’s history of intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Where the WTO rules</strong> provided a remedy—as was the case with China’s discriminatory patent-licensing practices—we <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-files-complaints-with-wto-against-trading-partners-1531767528">filed a complaint</a> with the WTO.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But where they did not,</strong> we turned to remedies available under U.S. trade law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We carefully identified</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">products</strong> produced by Chinese companies that had benefited from China’s market-distorting practices and imposed a 25 percent duty on those products.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We remained open to a negotiated solution,</strong> however, and in January, the administration reached a <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-look-phase-one-us-china-trade-deal" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Phase 1 agreement </a>with China under which it will stop forced technology transfer, refrain from manipulating its currency, strengthen protections for intellectual property, and eliminate a host of nontariff barriers to U.S. exports.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the first time,</strong> these commitments are in writing and enforceable through a dispute-resolution mechanism.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The agreement</strong> by no means resolves all the outstanding issues, but in roughly three years, we’ve made more progress than the previous two administrations made in 16.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most important</strong>—and often overlooked by knee-jerk, partisan critics of the deal—is that the administration has maintained pressure on China through a 25 percent tariff that remains on half of its exports to the United States, including nearly all high-tech products.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These duties</strong> help offset the unfair advantage China has obtained through forced technology transfer and market-distorting subsidies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'At the same time,</strong> China has made a series of <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/us-beef-exports-china-are-rising-not-much">purchasing commitments </a>that will create long-term market access for U.S. exporters, particularly farmers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether there will be a Phase 2</strong> depends on whether China complies with the terms of Phase 1 and whether it is willing to fundamentally change its model of state-run capitalism.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Regardless,</strong> the policy in place today protects American jobs, blunts China’s unfair advantages, and minimizes the pain to U.S. exporters and consumers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5E8kL2?track_p_id=b4gFzcUx6gwB98rA7y_tbui" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5E8kL2?track_p_id=eZXOG%40l1zgcVFzU98rA7y_K" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How to Win Friends and Influence China in the Post-Covid World'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/9f_HzrlhCFc1vy4ucLOOPDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5E8kL2?track_p_id=arcUXAVc2bC98rA7y_rM3nQ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/s3WkFhzCtLG7TD9as2vQUEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5E8kL2?track_p_id=axmZhyK4gd598rA7y_NXbg2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How to Win Friends and Influence China in the Post-Covid World</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nathaniel Taplin</strong> | Wall Street Journal</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than being concerned with losing its place in global supply chains, China effectively is the supply chain now.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his 2005 book</strong> “The World Is Flat,” Thomas Friedman laid out his now-famous “Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This states</strong> that two nations that are both part of a major global supply chain—like that of Dell Technologies—won’t go to war with each other.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Fifteen years later,</strong> the world looks very different:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than being concerned</strong> with losing its place in global supply chains, China effectively is the supply chain now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Amid </strong><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-11579716128" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">the coronavirus pandemic</strong></a> and an increasingly assertive China, Western governments are waking up to this new reality and trying to decide how to react.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How can the U.S. and its allies</strong> ensure their economic security without raising the risk of military conflict or seriously damaging their own growth?</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Is it even possible</strong> to effectively influence such a dominant trading power through economic statecraft.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent research</strong>—and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trade-war-wont-be-won-or-lost-by-president-trump-11574680900" rel="nofollow">the roller-coaster ride of 2018 and 2019</a>—hint at answers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'First,</strong> broad-based unilateral tariffs are relatively ineffective.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s economy</strong> is simply too large and too well integrated into global trade networks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese exports</strong> end up elsewhere, diluting tariffs’ impact.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Second,</strong> joint trade initiatives are more useful.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the U.S.’s alliance system</strong> gives it a natural advantage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Beijing</strong> also is obsessed with achieving <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-will-live-or-die-by-its-digital-economy-11569203477" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">technological self-reliance</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If it doesn’t reach</strong> the technological frontier in many high-tech industries soon, China will be stuck supporting legions of retirees and endlessly refinancing its massive debts rather than dominating the future—all at a much lower per-capita income than in the U.S.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until it gets there,</strong> that means technology export restrictions can be effective, if <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/real-winner-in-u-s-china-chip-war-wont-be-either-side-11591265619" rel="nofollow">costly and risky, leverage</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> too rapid or too complete decoupling could incur large economic costs and raise the risk of slipping into armed conflict.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A 2019 study from Ketian Zhang</strong> at George Mason University [explained in the previous issue] found that China tends to use force when economic costs are low, the need to demonstrate resolve over core security issues is high and the risk of adversaries enlisting help from other powers is low.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the future,</strong> avoiding military conflict might rest as much on China still having a lot to lose economically—and on allies’ willingness to follow the U.S. lead on sanctions or other measures—as on American aircraft carriers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. ‘China Won’t Win the Race for AI Dominance’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=3a%40W4v3mGs_2oyWJ3j3MJHm" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=5HUWB24v3mGs_uYhRlInaV%40" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China imitates, not innovates</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/HvlXXF-B226PCWawbV0LyDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left; display:block; padding:10px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;background:#fff;"><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Carl Benedikt Frey</h3></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=ajByNGFn3Xz4v3mGs_RDBsF" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VBtWlG1WPdkTM3OcXs1TNEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=7Jz3UrpO4v3mGs_tjm5oVbT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Won’t Win the Race for AI Dominance</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Foreign Affairs</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael Osborne</strong> | Oxford University </h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese innovation has mainly focused on incrementally improving technologies that were conceived elsewhere.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">, </strong>which unsurprisingly became an instant bestseller, former Google China President Kai-Fu Lee <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/in-the-race-for-supremacy-in-artificial-intelligence-its-us-innovation-vs-chinese-ambition/2018/11/02/013e0030-b08c-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">argues</a> that China’s unparalleled trove of data, culture of copying, and strong government commitment to artificial intelligence give it a major leg up against the United States.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As scholars</strong> who study the applications and implications of artificial intelligence, we respectfully disagree.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China, if anything,</strong> looks less likely to overtake the United States in artificial intelligence than Japan looked to dominate in computers in the 1980s.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For while China is rich in data</strong> and has excelled in refining technology invented elsewhere, much impedes it from becoming the site of the next big breakthrough that artificial intelligence sorely needs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s alleged data advantage</strong> is hugely overblown.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One reason</strong> is that data are highly domain specific and don’t often solve more than the problem for which they were gathered.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s disregard for privacy</strong> enables it to snoop on its citizens, but not much else.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And an abundance of surveillance data</strong> doesn’t give China an advantage in applying artificial intelligence to such ends as drug discovery or self-driving cars, for example.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The puzzle of artificial intelligence</strong> lies not in the quantity of data to which its algorithms have access but in the efficiency with which it learns from that data. Data efficiency is the holy grail of further progress in artificial intelligence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether the United States or China</strong> will lead the world in artificial intelligence depends far less on who controls the most data than on who will be the first to innovate past this impasse.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Decentralized experimentation</strong> and decision-making will likewise be critical if the world is to harness the benefits of artificial intelligence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> is at a disadvantage in this regard.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country’s recent surge</strong> in <a href="https://www.natlawreview.com/article/china-s-upsurge-patent-filings-continue-post-coronavirus-lockdown" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">patent filings</a> is often cited as evidence of its innovativeness.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But simply counting patents</strong> isn’t a good way to measure innovation: studies <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4757-3750-9_13" rel="nofollow">show </a>that ten percent of patents account for roughly 90 percent of total patent value, meaning that the vast majority are of little value.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Patent citations</strong> offer a more useful indicator.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if we look</strong> at the 100 most cited patents since 2003, not a single one comes from China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover, China’s leading artificial intelligence companies,</strong> including Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, are merely copies of Facebook, Amazon, and Google, tailored to the Chinese market.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the late economic historian </strong>Alexander Gerschenkron observed, when a country lags behind the technological frontier, imitation and the adoption of foreign technology can take it a long way.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, in general,</strong> the further a country has fallen behind, the greater the role the state must play in driving industrial catch-up.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike imitation,</strong> which can be planned and coordinated, innovation is a voyage of exploration into the unknown, to paraphrase the economist and philosopher Friedrich von Hayek’.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And switching from imitation to innovation is hard: </strong>if it were easy, most countries would be innovating at the technological frontier.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> has plenty of talent.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the fact remains</strong> that, so far, Chinese innovation has mainly focused on incrementally improving technologies that were conceived elsewhere.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese companies</strong> currently lead the world in the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-the-race-to-dominate-5g-china-has-an-edge-11567828888" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">development of 5G</a>, for example, but their work builds on several previous generations of telecommunications technology.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What Huawei demonstrates</strong> is that China has significant engineering capabilities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=dcHnz4cXJHey1r4v3mGs_JX" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=04v3mGs_kFqFYL2wU1gAoPa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China Doesn't Innovate</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=7I4dkrRW4v3mGs_MeiEzJ52" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VBtWlG1WPdkTM3OcXs1TNEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7om6rY?track_p_id=04v3mGs_I5efLmyXBAzIrKS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China Doesn't Innovate</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael Osborne</strong> | Oxford University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most innovative societies have always been those that allowed people to pursue controversial ideas.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Artificial intelligence</strong> is not yet a mature technology, and continued progress will require radical innovation on multiple fronts.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Breakthroughs</strong> will happen the way they usually do: through serendipity and recombination, as inventors and entrepreneurs interact and exchange ideas.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s strong state and collectivist structure</strong> have significant advantages in swiftly building infrastructure or mounting a coherent response to a pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But radical innovation</strong> is a different matter, and historically, the most innovative societies have always been those that allowed people to pursue controversial ideas.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the eminent economic historian Joel Mokyr</strong> has argued, that is why the Industrial Revolution happened in the West rather than in China in the first place.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s efforts to restrict the flow of ideas</strong> on the Internet and elsewhere are likely to hold back innovation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since </strong><a href="http://prod-upp-image-read.ft.com/ec34d7aa-70e6-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">September 2019</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> China and Huawei have been proposing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c78be2cf-a1a1-40b1-8ab7-904d7095e0f2" rel="nofollow">radical changes </a>to the Internet infrastructure that underpins networks worldwide.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If implemented,</strong> the changes would likely splinter the Internet and further reduce Chinese citizens’ exposure to new ideas from outside the country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The initiative</strong> underlines Beijing’s preference for maintaining the political status quo, even if that means slower innovation and less dynamism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under Xi,</strong> the Chinese Communist Party has stepped up efforts to penetrate private-sector businesses and consolidate political power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A surveillance state</strong> with a censored Internet, together with a social credit system that promotes conformity and obedience, seems unlikely to foster creativity: innovation is about breaking the rules, not abiding by them.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> a recent <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/14/6720" rel="nofollow">study </a>published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that positive attitudes toward conformism and obedience predict less disruptive innovation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has critical advantages that should enable it to remain the world’s leader in artificial intelligence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If it cedes that position to China,</strong> the reason will likely be that Washington has tried to emulate the Chinese model by propping up national champions rather than embracing the competition and dynamism that have made the United States the world’s technological front-runner for more than a century.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/24/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 24, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aOMS?track_p_id=a4feb4cPHyp6EiHz4_RKKiP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aOMS?track_p_id=8ggh4EdH36EiHz4_hF%40apPw" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Huawei's Real Danger'' | 'Why China Bullies' | 'Trade Wars are Class Wars'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aOMS?track_p_id=2116EiHz4_6uACmGyBAsgzG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/bFT19iXstQMY7JqN79qvH0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/70aOMS?track_p_id=c6vqMN%40iYqi5n6EiHz4_Zw%40" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today's issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'Trade Wars are Class Wars'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> <strong style="font-weight: bold">“Trade war</strong> is often presented as a war between countries”, writes Matthew Klein of Barron’s and Michael Pettis of Peking University in <em style="font-style: italic">Trade Wars Are Class Wars</em>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It is not:</strong> it is a conflict mainly between bankers and owners of financial assets on one side and ordinary households on the other — between the very rich and everyone else”.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael Pettis </strong>always has interesting even controversial but mostly accurate takes on China and economics.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> From the FT summary,</strong> he seems to have done it again.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I haven't read</strong> the book, but I will.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'The Right Approach to Huawei'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has valid complaints about Huawei, but US President Donald Trump is botching the negotiation,.’ writes Harvard's Bill Overholt.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The principal issue</strong> with Huawei is the lack of reciprocal market access.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With this Bill presents a more compelling argument </strong>for clipping Huawei's wings than just security concerns.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as Huawei</strong> has access to all three major markets — the United States, European Union and China — and foreign tech companies are prevented from having full access to the Chinese market, it will soon dominate the global 5G market.’ </li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With access to all markets,</strong> Huawei can sustain research and development budgets larger than its major competitors — Ericsson and Nokia — combined; they cannot compete with Huawei’s superior technological advance.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their imminent</strong> unfair destruction is unacceptable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'Chop Chop'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> Most people </strong>doing business in China have run into the corporate chop at one time or another.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What they are less likely </strong>to encounter is battle over the chop.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As The Economist</strong> points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In China,</strong> who controls the chop controls the company.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China’s sharp-elbowed</strong> business world chop rows remain common—and mostly unreported.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Been there.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Most interesting: ‘China is starting to deploy</strong> electronic chops, which are easier to monitor—and to strip from aggrieved wielders.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Why China Bullies’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Conventional wisdom </strong>points to a COVID-distracted world to explain China's many recent assertive actions.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But Ketian Zhang</strong> of George Mason University has another and even more plausible explanation.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In deciding </strong>when and how to be assertive, China employs a “cost-balancing theory” of decision-making: that China uses coercion “when the need to establish a reputation for resolve is high and the economic cost is low”.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese officials</strong> are betting on domestic demand to drive their country’s recovery from covid-19.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All in all,</strong> China feels less reliant on other countries than it has for a while.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That same China</strong> is also being unusually assertive.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. 'USTR Lighthizer on Capitol Hill'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Commenting on his testimony to the House and Senate,</strong> the FT reports:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even by his standards, </strong>the combative US trade representative has had a feisty run recently, and last week spent several hours sounding off on Capitol Hill.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As one old Brussels hand</strong> points out, whatever you think of Lighthizer’s views they are at least intellectually coherent.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are based</strong> on a belief that in trade there is no multilateral enforcement of rules, only bilateral leverage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taking Lighthizer at face value,</strong> in a few months the US could be embroiled in all-out trade combat with its major trading partners.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But will Lighthizer</strong> be given his head? Not clear.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'After all,</strong> his strategy hasn’t been a rip-roaring success so far.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. ‘China's Post-COVID Recovery Continues.’</strong></span> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I’ve included Andy Rothman</strong> on China’s economic recovery for two reasons.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The first of course</strong> is to give you an update from a top observer.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the second</strong> is for Andy’s closing remarks:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> I would like to remind readers that because China is a domestic-demand driven economy, there is a low risk that a possible COVID-driven global recession, or the on-going downward spiral in U.S.-China relations might derail the recovery.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> domestic consumption accounted for almost 60% of GDP growth.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Significantly,</strong> over the last five years, net exports (the value of a country's exports minus its imports) have, on average, contributed zero to China's GDP growth.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keep this in mind</strong> in light of the FT comment: </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'After all,</strong> his [Lighthizer's] strategy hasn’t been a rip-roaring success so far.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Neither has the choice</strong> of using tariffs to bring China to heel.</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. 'Trade Wars are Class Wars'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ikiga?track_p_id=2rR65w446_1kvRXFErs2bXj" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ikiga?track_p_id=2T265w446_CF2xbOn%403ON5a" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trade Wars are Class Wars'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/WkS14y5vjcbmOloDh-8KLzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:1.5% 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Michael Pettis</h3></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ikiga?track_p_id=auYOWAvQXLF65w446_EL2zq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ZxoD03Hr6vml32OJf3YNf0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ikiga?track_p_id=1U65w446_VykmebE3W3LQzv" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trade Wars are Class Wars'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Martin Wolf</strong> | FT</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economic success of China was the result of an extreme version of what the authors call the “high savings” model of development, together with exploitation of trade opportunities, which Japan pioneered.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘ “Trade war</strong> is often presented as a war between countries”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It is not:</strong> it is a conflict mainly between bankers and owners of financial assets on one side and ordinary households on the other — between the very rich and everyone else”.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This encapsulates the argument</strong> of <em style="font-style: italic">Trade Wars Are Class Wars</em>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its authors</strong> Matthew Klein of Barron’s and Michael Pettis of Peking University argue that what has been happening to trade and finance can only be understood in the context of domestic pathologies in leading economies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result</strong> has been severe global imbalances, unsustainable debt and monstrous financial crises.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘ “For decades,”</strong> note the authors, “real borrowing costs have been below long-term forecasts of real economic growth and remain around zero”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This combination</strong> of extraordinarily low real interest rates with weak global demand and low inflation is a prime symptom of underconsumption or, in modern parlance, “a savings glut”.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The explanation</strong> is that income has been shifted to wealthy people who do not spend what they earn.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is the overall perspective. </strong>But the relationship among national economies produces this overall picture.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The crucial point</strong> is that one cannot analyse what is happening in a single economy, in isolation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Furthermore,</strong> the overall balance in goods and services is explained by savings, investment and capital flows, not by bilateral trade balances, as Donald Trump imagines.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> “Financial imbalances now determine trade imbalances”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In adjusting</strong> to the resulting structural deficits, domestic supply of tradeable goods and services has to be squeezed in deficit countries like the US, with the cruel effects on the industrial working class.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economic success of China</strong> was the result of an extreme version of what the authors call the “high savings” model of development, together with exploitation of trade opportunities, which Japan pioneered.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, from the early 1990s</strong> and particularly after 2000, there was a sharp decline in the share of household consumption in China’s gross domestic product.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “As of 2018,</strong> Chinese households still consume less than 40 per cent of Chinese output — a lower ratio than in every other major economy in the world, by far”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is due to a host of mechanisms</strong> — high household savings, low interest rates, lack of rights of rural migrants in cities, regressive taxation, weak social safety nets and the failure of state-owned companies to pay dividends — all designed to shift income from workers and retirees to companies and the state.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gross national savings</strong> reached a peak of close to 50 per cent of GDP.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until the global financial crisis,</strong> these savings went into domestic investment and the current account surplus.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After the crisis,</strong> the decline in the surplus on the current account — the balance on trade in goods and all services — was offset by a further huge increase in credit-fuelled investment, which reached nearly half of GDP.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This surge in investment</strong> was funded by a huge credit boom.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> the share of household consumption is a little higher, but it is still remarkably low by international standards.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is caught</strong> between three options:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘wasteful</strong> credit-fuelled investment,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘massive </strong>external surpluses or’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘huge shifts</strong> of income from the hands of the elite and into those of ordinary people.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trade Wars Are Class Wars</strong></em> lays out these general ideas in its first three chapters, which discuss the history of world trade, the role of liberalised finance in creating unsustainable capital flows and, above all, how savings, investment and external “imbalances” interact.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the book’s core</strong> is the analysis of the history of China, Germany and the US over the past three decades.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Only China was covered above.</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The rest of the essay</strong> – as is the book, no doubt – well-worth reading.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. The Real Danger from Huawei</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7av30i?track_p_id=eYzVxltF2qva3gm7cWtA6_Z" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/iga3x4MVv6rEM-a8GUa4L0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7av30i?track_p_id=7ha%40IidB7cWtA6_dCgMmjmm" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump versus Huawei: right target, disastrous strategy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/xF0Atf0av0uoVGQ0U7Qg8zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7av30i?track_p_id=07cWtA6_HyQDi2KQyujMhIb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/T3p4ktvXaNGKajxO5NKY5Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7av30i?track_p_id=6cCQWcs7cWtA6_Kq4AVg13P" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump versus Huawei: right target, disastrous strategy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">East Asia Forum</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bill Overholt</strong> | Harvard Kennedy School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The principal issue with Huawei is the lack of reciprocal market access.’</strong></h2><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has valid complaints about Huawei, but US President Donald Trump is botching the negotiation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The principal issue</strong> with Huawei is the lack of reciprocal market access.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as Huawei</strong> has access to all three major markets — the United States, European Union and China — and foreign tech companies are prevented from having full access to the Chinese market, it will soon dominate the global 5G market.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With access to all markets,</strong> Huawei can sustain research and development budgets larger than its major competitors — Ericsson and Nokia — combined; they cannot compete with Huawei’s superior technological advance.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Their imminent</strong> unfair destruction is unacceptable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This happens in many areas.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Take credit cards</strong> — China UnionPay’s global market share dwarfs that of Mastercard or Visa, not because it’s a better company but because UnionPay has fuller access to all three major markets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The right strategy</strong> to counter this is to restrict or deny market access to Chinese companies in sectors where China formally or informally restricts foreign companies’ access.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Western governments </strong>should help domestic companies develop technology superior to Huawei’s.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They should make it clear that Huawei</strong> — and other Chinese companies — will get access when Chinese policy offers commensurate market access and meets their security concerns.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Denying Huawei market access</strong> now is appropriate, but the door must be open for a future solution.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since Huawei’s</strong> major foreign competitors are European, this is the perfect opportunity to build US–EU cooperation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States and European</strong> Union are wide open in the sectors where China has a comparative advantage, namely manufacturing, while China remains largely closed in the sectors where the West has a comparative advantage, mainly services.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So in addition</strong> to restricting China’s access in services, Western countries need targeted restrictions in manufacturing too.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Chop Chop</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7t5NKq?track_p_id=1j8GL89e_rITiiu6SeaitVG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7t5NKq?track_p_id=4ZFjh8GL89e_klkZN5Mccra" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chopped and screwed - Why corporate disputes in China still revolve around rubber stamps </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/iqSGvBi2CSj_bCREFhcvTjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7t5NKq?track_p_id=di4lhGhHJjEgqs8GL89e_1l" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/AmljXGLWZMutWSmN21Ah50i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7t5NKq?track_p_id=8qcuWZm3b8GL89e_uExa33Y" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chopped and screwed - Why corporate disputes in China still revolve around rubber stamps </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China, who controls the chop controls the company.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is in the vanguard</strong> of new technology, from facial recognition to 5g networks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many Chinese firms,</strong> though, rely on something from an earlier age: a hard, usually rubber chop with a firm’s name engraved on it, to be dipped in crimson ink and stamped on important documents.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chopping </strong>is seen as more authoritative than a mere signature. The 2,000-year-old tradition may seem quaint.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in China,</strong> who controls the chop controls the company.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And managers</strong> sometimes misuse seals to enter side contracts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The oddest recent chop</strong> bust-up occurred in April.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Li Guoqing,</strong> the ousted co-founder of Dangdang, a once-popular e-commerce platform, broke into its headquarters and, in a bid to retake the company, removed dozens of its official chops (besides the main chop, others are used for things like contracts and tax receipts).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Dangdang</strong> declared the seized chops to be invalid.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But on June 13th</strong> it was reported that the police had cleared Mr Li of wrongdoing, implying the chops are his for now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China’s sharp-elbowed</strong> business world chop rows remain common—and mostly unreported.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lawsuits to reclaim a chop</strong> can drag on, says Eric Carlson of Covington & Burling, a law firm, so many cases are resolved out of court.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, he notes,</strong> technology is catching up with tradition.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is starting to deploy</strong> electronic chops, which are easier to monitor—and to strip from aggrieved wielders.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Why China is Bullying Now </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BFhey?track_p_id=dWzWM5VarxjAdl7EGBXa_Mw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BFhey?track_p_id=bqNYmWP1cwmI7EGBXa_pef1" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China bullies </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/bb6SY5A_sefGMaB_aV_ftTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BFhey?track_p_id=cQFWU3WzHmSLa7EGBXa_Z1e" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/okEqAhwhvATZapLMszXDQ0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BFhey?track_p_id=c3beObrVlLrZQ7EGBXa_QUq" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why China bullies </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All in all, China feels less reliant on other countries than it has for a while. That same China is also being unusually assertive.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A revealing paper</strong> published last year by Ketian Zhang of George Mason University, in Virginia, charts how China has been throwing its weight around in its region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Titled </strong><a href="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/isec_a_00354" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Cautious Bully: Reputation, Resolve and Beijing’s Use of Coercion in the South China Sea”</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> it tests claims that China’s willingness to use force is explained by its growing military strength or the assertiveness of its leaders.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ms Zhang offers</strong> a “cost-balancing theory” of decision-making:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘that China uses coercion</strong> “when the need to establish a reputation for resolve is high and the economic cost is low”.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus China was quiet in the South China Sea</strong> in the early 2000s, when it wanted a free-trade deal with the Association of South-East Asian Nations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Later it became assertive</strong> after deciding that this group needed Chinese trade more than the other way round—and had to be deterred from seeking international help in the South China Sea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China especially likes to inflict asymmetric economic pain</strong> as when it banned imports of bananas from the Philippines during a territorial dispute in 2012.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This devastated</strong> Filipino farmers but barely hurting its own consumers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That pattern</strong> continues.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent Chinese boycotts</strong> have targeted things like Australian beef or Houston Rockets games.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But not more</strong> vital commodities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All this casts another light </strong>on China’s assertiveness during this pandemic year, and the notion that China is taking advantage of a world distracted by covid-19 to throw its weight around.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is true</strong> that China has been aggressive in recent months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beyond its readiness</strong> to skirmish on the Indian border, it has decided to impose a draconian national-security law on Hong Kong, slapped trade boycotts on Australia and other Western nations, and sent coastguard ships to sink or harass foreign vessels in the contested waters of the South China Sea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is also true</strong> that the world is geopolitically distracted.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is hard for governments</strong> to chide China over democracy in Hong Kong, say, while also negotiating to buy Chinese ventilators.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But economics matters, </strong>too.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is a time of slumping global demand</strong> for China’s goods and interrupted supply chains.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So Chinese officials</strong> are betting on domestic demand to drive their country’s recovery from covid-19.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All in all,</strong> China feels less reliant on other countries than it has for a while.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That same China</strong> is also being unusually assertive.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Follow the logic through</strong> and having limited economic ties with China may not make other countries safer.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India is the latest country</strong> to be confronted with that dilemma.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will not</strong> be the last.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. Lighthizer on Trump Trade Policy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TQ1z6?track_p_id=aRCyvpPewzg7bGWDu_ZusaW" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TQ1z6?track_p_id=ayQiVgpgVfv7bGWDu_5ecih" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Will Lighthizer lead Trump into another trade war? </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/S_9nHrD2aqx82aU_fLeygzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left; display:block; padding:10px 3.5% 20px 2.5%; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;background:#fff;"><h3 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'Wherever you look in trade these days,</h3><h3 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">a chemical-washed chicken is generally staring back at you.'</h3></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TQ1z6?track_p_id=07bGWDu_6D4WOBZbNkOAh1g" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/PgWZpDyOdI2eBdCCQo9aM0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TQ1z6?track_p_id=cBxToltSdfWPF7bGWDu_4yK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Will Lighthizer lead Trump into another trade war? </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taking Lighthizer at face value, in a few months the US could be embroiled in all-out trade combat with its major trading partners.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Review the USTR’s testimony</strong> to the <a href="https://waysandmeans.house.gov/legislation/hearings/2020-trade-policy-agenda" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">House Ways & Means Committee</a>& to the <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/hearings/the-presidents-2020-trade-policy-agenda" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Senate Committee on Finance.</a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even by his standards, </strong>the combative US trade representative has had a feisty run recently, and last week spent several hours sounding off on Capitol Hill.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First up,</strong> Lighthizer demanded a general “reset” at the WTO whereby the US’s trade partners would cut their tariffs, or the US would raise its own.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the US suspending negotiations</strong> at the OECD over international co-operation on a digital services tax (DST), he also threatened unilateral tariff increases using his favourite “Section 301” tool on countries like France that want to go it alone.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And he mused</strong> whether the same instrument could be used against EU food regulations. (Wherever you look in trade these days, a chemical-washed chicken is generally staring back at you.)’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taking Lighthizer at face value,</strong> in a few months the US could be embroiled in all-out trade combat with its major trading partners.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The question is:</strong> how much will actually get done? Is there a firm plan? Is it pre-election posturing under instruction from Trump?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Or is it simply</strong> what Planet Lighthizer would look like if the USTR were given supreme power to create it?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As one old Brussels hand</strong> points out, whatever you think of Lighthizer’s views they are at least intellectually coherent.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are based</strong> on a belief that in trade there is no multilateral enforcement of rules, only bilateral leverage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lighthizer’s view</strong> of multilateralist solutions remains dim:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last week he expressed</strong> unconcern about whether the WTO Appellate Body that the US paralysed would ever be revived.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hence his affection for Section 301,</strong> which allows the US to target behaviour it dislikes in trading partners with an immediate and effective weapon: raising tariffs to deny access to the American market.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A WTO tariff reset</strong> would spring from the same mindset, punishing other governments for perceived maltreatment with tariff increases.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But will Lighthizer</strong> be given his head? Not clear.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'After all,</strong> his strategy hasn’t been a rip-roaring success so far.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After years of threats and tariffs,</strong> the US forced China into “phase one” of a supposedly all-embracing deal in January in which it made general promises of economic reform and specific pledges to buy US soyabeans and other commodities.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Partly because of Covid-19,</strong> but not only because of Covid-19, those purchases have been disappointing, and Trump has been muttering darkly about the deal.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lighthizer,</strong> usually sharply critical of backsliding by trading partners, has been reduced to hoarsely insisting that really, his phase one deal is working, honestly it is.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> following the Lighthizer plan requires Trump to be in fighting rather than dealmaking mode to risk economic damage before November’s election.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the case of the WTO reset,</strong> the timetable would normally push on beyond that.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration</strong> would really be going out of its way to inflict serious harm on the trading system, including the US, if it raised applied tariffs before November.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As usual,</strong> placing firm bets on the Trump administration’s future trade policy is only for gamblers who can afford to lose.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To us,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">last week’s policy script</strong> looks a lot like The World According To Lighthizer (one of John Irving’s lesser-known novels) and it’s doubtful it will get past Trump’s dealmaking instincts unedited.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">6. China's Economic Recovery Continues</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8laMJE?track_p_id=3qiw6hD29G_sVUtCsDsSRqd" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/OzYcFf4rJmckh3zTGB-FWEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8laMJE?track_p_id=8g1zFgb3a6hD29G_FKxSaWy" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">THE BIG PICTURE: China's Post-COVID Recovery Continues</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/aXIDn8gZPsS-nCzW0KxMnjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8laMJE?track_p_id=5salp26hD29G_LduFaZcCzc" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/OzYcFf4rJmckh3zTGB-FWEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8laMJE?track_p_id=daoxaE2CEreLcI6hD29G_ui" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Sinology by Andy Rothman - China's Post-COVID Recovery Continues</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Matthews Asia</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andy Rothman</strong> | Matthews Asia</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Because China is a domestic-demand driven economy, there is a low risk that a possible COVID-driven global recession, or the on-going downward spiral in U.S.-China relations might derail the recovery.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's post-COVID recovery</strong> continued in May, with consumer spending, manufacturing and investment all bouncing back strongly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the virus</strong> largely under control three months after the lockdown was eased, further progress is likely, although a return to normal may not happen until next year.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A new outbreak in Beijing</strong> provides a cautionary tale for all nations, suggesting that eradicating the virus will be extremely difficult.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A nascent V-shaped recovery'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As we wrote in the </strong><a href="https://matthewsasia.com/perspectives-on-asia/sinology/article-1733/default.fs" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">April 17 </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sinology</strong></em></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> China's first quarter economic data was dismal.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We also wrote </strong>that those dismal numbers were the result of a virus that shuttered most shops, factories, offices and restaurants, and did not reflect structurally weak supply or demand, or a financial system crisis.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now that the virus</strong> has been largely brought under control in China, those businesses have gradually been opening, and life is starting to return to normal, as are many key economic indicators.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is a domestic-demand driven economy,</strong> so the recovery in consumer spending is critical.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year</strong> was the eighth consecutive year in which the consumer and services (tertiary) part of China's GDP was the largest, and consumption accounted for almost 60% of GDP growth.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recovery without a stimulus bazooka’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is worth noting</strong> that this healthy economic recovery has come without a dramatic stimulus.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Credit growth,</strong> for example, has only accelerated modestly.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Augmented Total Social Finance (TSF)</strong> outstanding, the broadest metric for credit growth, was up 12.7% YoY by the end of May, compared to an 11.3% growth rate during the same period in 2019.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Far from the 26.9% growth rate</strong> during the same period in 2009, when Beijing implemented a massive stimulus in response to the Global Financial Crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This highlights</strong> the strength of an organic recovery, and leaves the government with plenty of dry powder if the recovery were to falter.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unemployment</strong> remains a concern.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the absence of social unrest </strong>and the rebound in consumer spending suggests that the government's support for workers and businesses has provided a cushion for many who lost their jobs, laying the foundation for an economic recovery.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is not export-led’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> I would like to remind readers that because China is a domestic-demand driven economy, there is a low risk that a possible COVID-driven global recession, or the on-going downward spiral in U.S.-China relations might derail the recovery.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> domestic consumption accounted for almost 60% of GDP growth.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The gross value of exports</strong> was equal to 17% of China's GDP (down from 35% in 2007), but almost 30% of those exports were processed goods for which little value was added in China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Significantly,</strong> over the last five years, net exports (the value of a country's exports minus its imports) have, on average, contributed zero to China's GDP growth.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> only 17% of China's exports went to the U.S. last year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So while a collapse in demand for Chinese exports</strong> would be a drag on the recovery, it would likely be a modest drag.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93kgdM?track_p_id=1F72ZLgc_lYDO3byPxXAezq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/OzYcFf4rJmckh3zTGB-FWEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93kgdM?track_p_id=6Zknb1e72ZLgc_V3CcYBy45" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">THE DETAILS: China's Post-COVID Recovery Continues</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/m2eOtWe_dN_LhLu2xJM3Ijl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td align="center"><div style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/IJuy30lVc-q3wt6MR86XIzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93kgdM?track_p_id=aJ3OM3f%40Bsw72ZLgc_XZmVV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/fa3A6yI0Mslq0l8SbzonlEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/93kgdM?track_p_id=7eqAZBAl72ZLgc_ce5Opois" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Sinology by Andy Rothman - China's Post-COVID Recovery Continues</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Matthews Asia</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andy Rothman</strong> | Matthews Asia</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The recovery of sales of autos and homes reflects that middle-class and wealthy consumers have both sufficient money and enough confidence in the future to spend it.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Real retail sales</strong> growth plummeted to -23.7% YoY in January/February, but bounced to be only down 9.1% in April and then down 3.7% in May.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A good recovery,</strong> but not yet back to normal: in May 2019, real retail sales rose 6.4% YoY.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Auto sales</strong> were down 79.1% YoY in February, but began to recover strongly in April, when sales were up 4.4% YoY.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In May,</strong> auto sales rose 14.5% YoY, in sharp contrast not only to February's low, but also to the 16.4% YoY decline in May 2019.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last month</strong> was the first month of double-digit YoY auto sales growth since April 2018.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Residential property sales</strong> also recovered strongly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After being down</strong>2% YoY (in square meter terms) in January/February, sales were only down 1.5% in April, before rising 9.3% YoY in May. (In May 2019, property sales fell 3.9% YoY.)’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The recovery of sales of autos and homes</strong> reflects that middle-class and wealthy consumers have both sufficient money and enough confidence in the future to spend it. And it wasn't only big-ticket items that bounced back last month.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sales at food services and drinking places</strong> rose 31% month-on-month in May after a 26% MoM increase in April.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Restaurant and bar sales</strong> were still down 18.9% YoY last month, due in large part to lingering fears many people have about gathering indoors.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the sector </strong>is beginning to recover.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Online sales of goods</strong> rose 22% YoY in May, up from 16.2% in April and 10.7% in March, and faster than the 19.9% YoY pace a year ago.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘During the first five months of the year,</strong> online sales accounted for one-quarter of total retail sales.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/20/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 20, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=8CLnz23%40o6EiHz4_SF1W156" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=bWM5MpRGkZK26EiHz4_ZeXs" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Bolton on Trump & China | (Another) War with China? | War with China is no Black Swan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=1Q6EiHz4_Nid5vW431SQVdb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/bFT19iXstQMY7JqN79qvH0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=ej3Y1iqIznkluou6EiHz4_G" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today's issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘(Another) War with China?’</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Corporate and financial analysts</strong> should figure a U.S. war with China into their risk assessment.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not because</strong> either side wants war.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But because</strong> ‘deterrence could break down owing to either strategic or tactical miscalculation,’ writes Michèle A. Flournoy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The more confident China’s leaders</strong> are in their own capabilities and the more they doubt the capabilities and resolve of the United States, the greater the chance of miscalculation—a breakdown in deterrence that could bring direct conflict between two nuclear powers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And my pick</strong> for the breakdown in deterrence: Taiwan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> <strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘John Bolton: The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy.’ </strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Amb. Bolton</strong> is drip-feeding us just enough to entice us to buy his book.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He gives us a picture of</strong> Trump's China policy and policymaking in a Wall Street Journal op-ed:</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> in some respects embodies the growing U.S. concern about China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He appreciates the key truth</strong> that politico-military power rests on a strong economy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump frequently says</strong> that stopping China’s unfair economic growth at America’s expense is the best way to defeat China militarily, which is fundamentally correct.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the real question</strong> is what Trump does about China’s threat.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I just include</strong> Amb. Bolton’s comments on Mr. Trump’s China policy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If you want the juicy stuff,</strong> you’ll have to click the link and read the whole essay. </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. My Take: War with China is no Black Swam</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If, say, </strong>China suddenly provoked a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, risk analysts in big corporations and investment funds would cry out in surprise: ‘Black Swan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it would be </strong>anything but.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For quite a while</strong> military and strategic analysts have raised concerns over the risk of war with China and over America’s ability to prevail.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today’s uniquely dangerous mix </strong>of growing Chinese assertiveness and military strength and eroding U.S. deterrence, the risk of war is higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States and China </strong>could all too easily stumble into conflict.’</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. (Another) War with China?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7bMdEG?track_p_id=2dD7jo9U6_vjQotD35gDwGd" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7bMdEG?track_p_id=b2drNMP%40y53v7jo9U6_mjdf" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Erosion of U.S. Deterrence Raises the Risk of War With China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">Chinese poster from the Korean War</p></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/rQK7PAICxEhB8l0eDMeWkjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7bMdEG?track_p_id=9dvpiYco337jo9U6_iS2qIH" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/EGAiw7XZTsJyZGQdMBBAAEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7bMdEG?track_p_id=07jo9U6_dNy4tqaI5jOG4wI" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Erosion of U.S. Deterrence Raises the Risk of War With China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michèle A. Flournoy</strong> | WestExec Advisors & former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The more confident China’s leaders are in their own capabilities and the more they doubt the capabilities and resolve of the United States, the greater the chance of miscalculation—a breakdown in deterrence that could bring direct conflict between two nuclear powers.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today’s uniquely dangerous mix </strong>of growing Chinese assertiveness and military strength and eroding U.S. deterrence, the risk of war is higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States and China </strong>could all too easily stumble into conflict.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This could be ‘sparked</strong> by a Chinese miscalculation of the United States’ willingness or capability to respond to provocations in disputed areas such as the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea" rel="nofollow">South China Sea </a>or to outright aggression against Taiwan or another U.S. security partner in the region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the past two decades,</strong> the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been <a href="https://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">growing</a> in size, capability, and confidence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since the 1991 Gulf War,</strong> the PLA has gone to school on the American way of war and developed an expanding set of asymmetric approaches to undermine U.S. military strengths and exploit U.S. vulnerabilities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'At the same time,</strong> the credibility of U.S. deterrence has been declining.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Beijing,</strong> the 2008–9 financial crisis gave rise to an enduring narrative of U.S. decline and Chinese superiority.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This ‘has been reinforced</strong> by perceptions of U.S. withdrawal from the world—as well as, more recently, by its perception of bungled U.S. management of the pandemic and societal upheaval over systemic racism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'What’s more,</strong> Washington has not delivered on its promised “pivot” to Asia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. troop levels</strong> in the region remain similar to what they were a decade ago.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The current administration </strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2016-11-22/tpp-rip" rel="nofollow">discarded the Trans-Pacific Partnership </a>trade agreement its predecessor had so painstakingly negotiated.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Senior diplomatic positions</strong> in the region remain empty, and the United States is often underrepresented or entirely AWOL from the region’s major diplomatic forums.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has been no U.S. answer</strong> to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, even as its influence expands through Asia and well beyond.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Chinese activities in the “gray zone,”</strong> below the level of conflict—such as building militarized “islands” and using coercive measures to enforce disputed sovereignty claims in the South China Sea—have gone largely unanswered by the United States beyond the occasional diplomatic démarche or freedom-of-navigation operation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The upshot</strong> of the developments is a dangerous new uncertainty about the U.S. ability to check various Chinese moves, which could invite risk-taking by Chinese leaders.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The more confident China’s leaders</strong> are in their own capabilities and the more they doubt the capabilities and resolve of the United States, the greater the chance of miscalculation—a breakdown in deterrence that could bring direct conflict between two nuclear powers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Deterrence</strong> could break down owing to either strategic or tactical miscalculation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A strategic miscalculation</strong> might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would be ‘based on</strong> a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-06-11/self-destruction-american-power" rel="nofollow">declining power</a>—one’ <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘racked by</strong> internal political divisions,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘preoccupied</strong> with domestic crises,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘no longer showing up</strong> in the region diplomatically,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘lacking the military capabilities</strong> that might be effective in the face of “<a href="https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/09/13/a2ad_-_anti-accessarea_denial_110052.html" rel="nofollow">anti-access/area-denial</a>” (A2/AD), and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘with an </strong><a href="https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/02/its-time-talk-about-taiwan/163291/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">uncertain commitment </strong></a>to defending Taiwan.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China could conclude</strong> that it should move on Taiwan sooner rather than later, a <em style="font-style: italic">fait accompli</em> that a weakened and distracted United States would have to accept.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So effective deterrence</strong> does not depend just on Chinese leaders believing the United States has the capability to thwart any act of aggression; they must also believe it has the will to do so.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> Beijing has doubts on both scores.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'And the risk of war </strong>is ‘higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7tWxYO?track_p_id=asGcb4nzZqd7V30ik_FPhlV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7tWxYO?track_p_id=1w7V30ik_SfetkTqaIkYO5v" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Think we have military primacy over China? Think again. </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7tWxYO?track_p_id=9uum12pYsJ7V30ik_gNKVYE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Think we have military primacy over China? Think again. - The</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">David Ignatius</strong> | Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Over the past decade, in U.S. war games against China, the United States has a nearly perfect record: We have lost almost every single time.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here’s a fact</strong> that ought to startle every American who assumes that because we spend <a href="https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-military-budget-components-challenges-growth-3306320" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">nearly</a> $1 trillion each year on defense, we have primacy over our emerging rival, China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Over the past decade,</strong> in U.S. war games against China, the United States has a nearly perfect record: We have lost almost every single time.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s a </strong><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT9&lpg=PT9&dq=%E2%80%9COver+the+past+decade,+in+U.S.+war+games+against+China,+the+United+States+has+a+nearly+perfect+record:+We+have+lost+almost+every+single+time.%E2%80%9D&source=bl&ots=xblLGZDMmk&sig=ACfU3U3tX42kTtas0Hb1YKt4wvF0pOQh1A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiOt9msgK_pAhVPhXIEHWk6D50Q6AEwAHoECAEQAQ#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9COver%20the%20past%20decade%2C%20in%20U.S.%20war%20games%20against%20China%2C%20the%20United%20States%20has%20a%20nearly%20perfect%20record%3A%20We%20have%20lost%20almost%20every%20single%20time.%E2%80%9D&f=false" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">quote </strong></a>from a new book called “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/031653353X/ref=as_li_qf_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=thewaspos09-20&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=031653353X&linkId=7e5e3f91d0f740e8aa89ac7468effa99" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare</a>,” the most provocative critique of U.S. defense policy I’ve read in years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s written by </strong><a href="https://www.aspeninstitute.org/our-people/chris-brose/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Christian Brose</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a close adviser to late senator John McCain (R-Ariz.).</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The book</strong> isn’t just a wake-up call, it’s a fire alarm in the night.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Brose </strong><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT9&lpg=PT9&dq=%E2%80%9COver+the+past+decade,+in+U.S.+war+games+against+China,+the+United+States+has+a+nearly+perfect+record:+We+have+lost+almost+every+single+time.%E2%80%9D&source=bl&ots=xblLGZDMmk&sig=ACfU3U3tX42kTtas0Hb1YKt4wvF0pOQh1A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiOt9msgK_pAhVPhXIEHWk6D50Q6AEwAHoECAEQAQ#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9COver%20the%20past%20decade%2C%20in%20U.S.%20war%20games%20against%20China%2C%20the%20United%20States%20has%20a%20nearly%20perfect%20record%3A%20We%20have%20lost%20almost%20every%20single%20time.%E2%80%9D&f=false" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">explains</strong></a> a terrible truth about war with China:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our spy and communications satellites</strong> would immediately be disabled;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our forward bases</strong> in Guam and Japan would be “inundated” by precise missiles;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our aircraft carriers</strong> would have to sail away from China to escape attack;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our F-35 fighter jets</strong> couldn’t reach their targets because the refueling tankers they need would be shot down.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Many U.S. forces</strong> would be rendered deaf, dumb and blind,” writes Brose.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have become so vulnerable,</strong> he argues because we’ve lost sight of the essential requirement of military power — the “kill chain” of his title — which means seeing threats and taking quick, decisive action to stop them.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How did this happen?’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It wasn’t an intelligence failure,</strong> or a malign Pentagon and Congress, or lack of money, or insufficient technological prowess.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No, it was simply bureaucratic inertia</strong> compounded by entrenched interests.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Pentagon</strong> is good at doing what it did yesterday, and Congress insists on precisely that.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have been so busy</strong> buffing our legacy systems that, as Brose <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=%22ambushed%20by%20the%20future%22&f=false" rel="nofollow">writes</a>, “the United States got ambushed by the future.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s military</strong> isn’t focused on projecting power, as ours is, but instead on preventing U.S. domination.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than match</strong> our fleets of carriers and squadrons of jets around the world, Beijing developed precision weapons to prevent the United States from mobilizing these forces.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An example</strong> is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21" rel="nofollow">DF-21</a>, the world’s first ballistic anti-ship missile, which Brose says is known as “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&lpg=PT9&ots=xblLGZDMmk&dq=%E2%80%9COver%20the%20past%20decade%2C%20in%20U.S.%20war%20games%20against%20China%2C%20the%20United%20States%20has%20a%20nearly%20perfect%20record%3A%20We%20have%20lost%20almost%20every%20single%20time.%E2%80%9D&pg=PT11#v=onepage&q=%22carrier%20killer%22&f=false" rel="nofollow">the carrier killer</a>.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Pentagon wants</strong> to confront the Chinese challenge, but it insists on keeping the same vulnerable, wildly expensive platforms at the center of the United States’ military power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Congress</strong> demands adherence to this status quo.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis</strong> and then-Navy Secretary Richard Spencer <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=2019%20retire%20carrier&f=false" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">tried to retire</a> an aircraft carrier in 2019, Congress refused.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Expensive fighter jets</strong> have a lobby, too.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Brose </strong><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=%22built%20in%20every%20state%22&f=false" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">notes</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong> “There is a reason why parts of the F-35 are built in every state in America. . . . It is political expediency.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the Pentagon</strong> tries to innovate, it’s too hidebound to maneuver and adapt.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A classic example</strong> is the Army’s <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/30th-annivesary/2016/10/25/30-years-future-combat-systems-acquisition-gone-wrong/" rel="nofollow">$18 billion misadventure </a>known as “Future Combat Systems,” which was supposed to coordinate modern weapons but turned out to be less agile than a Sony PlayStation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Brose argues</strong> that it’s time for a radical rethink.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than building weapons</strong> for an outmoded strategy of projecting power, we should instead be arming ourselves in an effort to “deny China military dominance.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That means many cheap,</strong> autonomous weapons at the edge of the perimeter, rather than a few exquisite ones that are vulnerable to attack.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These smart systems</strong> exist:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Air Force’s</strong> unmanned <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kratos_XQ-58_Valkyrie" rel="nofollow">XQ-58A</a>, known as the “Valkyrie,” is nearly as capable as a fighter but costs about <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a31122720/kratos-xq58a-valkyrie-future/" rel="nofollow">45 times </a>less than an <a href="https://www.f35.com/about/cost" rel="nofollow">F-35</a>;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Navy’s</strong> Extra-Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle, known as the “<a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/02/13/41119" rel="nofollow">Orca</a>,” is 300 times less costly than a <a href="https://news.usni.org/2019/10/10/cbo-navys-next-nuclear-attack-submarine-could-cost-5-5b-a-hull" rel="nofollow">$3.2 billion </a>Virginia-class attack submarine.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But these robots</strong> don’t have a lobby to rival the giant defense contractors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Brose envisions</strong> a military version of the “Internet of things” — smart systems at the outer edges of our defenses which can blunt China’s dominance without breaking the budget or risking all-or-nothing confrontations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We have the money,</strong> the technological base, and the human talent,” he <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=CW-nDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q=%22we%20have%20the%20money%22&f=false" rel="nofollow">writes</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What we lack</strong> is the will to change.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BhHsW?track_p_id=6EDStyf7PJTY6_OraHNPlsk" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BhHsW?track_p_id=afAA5cVgldt7PJTY6_Kv3rx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Marines Plan to Retool to Meet China Threat</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/HSICYDUb0GTFp5ch-4mAxzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BhHsW?track_p_id=07PJTY6_3ADkUMdeWZtncyx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/-AmmxAR1ymuvxwQd33GYmki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8BhHsW?track_p_id=5rP4QI7PJTY6_DpM4KbZtyb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Marines Plan to Retool to Meet China Threat</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Marine Corps commandant, Gen. David Berger,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">aims to reconfigure the Corps to focus on a China threat.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the U.S. focused on the Middle East,</strong> however, China and Russia worked on systems to thwart the American military’s ability to assemble forces near their regions and command them in battle.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If war broke out, </strong>U.S. officials concluded, China could fire hundreds of missiles at U.S. and allies’ airbases, ports and command centers throughout the Pacific, jam the U.S. military’s GPS, attack American satellite systems and use its air defenses to keep U.S. warplanes at bay.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Before he </strong><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-mattis-retiring-at-end-of-february-11545344800?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">resigned in December 2018</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> Mr. Mattis oversaw the development of a new national defense strategy, which asserted that the long-term competition with China and Russia was the Pentagon’s top priority and cast North Korea, Iran, and terrorists as lesser dangers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The current Pentagon leadership</strong> remains committed to the strategy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Within the military,</strong> nobody is proposing more far-reaching changes than Gen. David Berger, the Marine Corps commandant.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Marine Corps</strong> is undertaking its most sweeping transformation in decades, pivoting from a focus on fighting insurgents in the Middle East to developing the ability to hop from island to island in the western Pacific to bottle up the Chinese fleet.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The 10-year plan</strong> to revamp the Corps follows years of classified U.S. wargames that revealed China’s missile and naval forces to be eroding American military advantages in the region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To reinvent themselves</strong> as a naval expeditionary force within budget limits, the Marines plan to get rid of all of their tanks, cut back on their aircraft and shrink in total numbers from 189,000 to as few as 170,000, Gen. Berger said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gen. Berger aims</strong> to reconfigure the Corps to focus on a China threat.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Marines</strong> would fight within reach of Chinese missiles, planes, and naval forces to blunt any aggression.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While other services</strong> might lob missiles from long range, the Marines, in military parlance, would operate inside “the weapons engagement zone.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the heart of Gen. Berger’s plan</strong> is the establishment of new naval expeditionary units—what the Marines call “littoral regiments”—whose mission would be to take on the Chinese navy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If a military confrontation loomed,</strong> the regiments would disperse small teams of Marines, who would rush in sleek landing craft to the tiny islands that dot the South and East China Seas, according to Gen. Berger and other senior Marine officers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Armed with sensor-laden drones</strong> that operate in the air, on the sea and underwater, the Marines would target Chinese warships before they ventured into the wider Pacific Ocean.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Marine teams,</strong> which could have 50 to 100 personnel, would fire anti-ship missiles at the Chinese fleet.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Targeting data</strong> also would be passed to Air Force or Navy units farther away, which would fire longer-range missiles.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To elude retaliatory blows, </strong>the Marines would hop from island to island every 48 or 72 hours, relying on a new generation of amphibious ships, which could be piloted remotely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other Marine teams</strong> would operate from U.S. warships with decoy vessels nearby.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Gen. Berger said</strong> the wargames showed that the new Marine capabilities and tactics would create “a ton of problems” for the Chinese forces.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It is very difficult</strong> for them to counter a distributed naval expeditionary force that is small, that is mobile, but has the capability to reach out and touch you,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. John Bolton: 'The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TrcCe?track_p_id=3TrZ8P42QA_VECK4cvcys1i" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TrcCe?track_p_id=08P42QA_DXTvcJwIIGv2Nqv" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Two (Wrong) Propositions Underlying U.S. Strategy Toward China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/kcLyaF7nfu4KTR2YQhXJ5jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TrcCe?track_p_id=6P3U6wP8P42QA_tDHA6ZPDA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YsQZjTzZ70HnUlQqorquJ0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TrcCe?track_p_id=9OsEVcBESx8P42QA_jxjgUo" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">John Bolton: The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">John Bolton</strong> | former National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. strategy toward the People’s Republic of China has rested for more than four decades on two basic propositions.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. strategy</strong> toward the People’s Republic of China has rested for more than four decades on two basic propositions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first is that the Chinese economy</strong> would be changed irreversibly by the rising prosperity caused by market-oriented policies, greater foreign investment, ever-deeper interconnections with global markets and broader acceptance of international economic norms. Bringing China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 was the apotheosis of this assessment.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second proposition</strong> is that, as China’s national wealth increased, so too, inevitably, would its political openness. As China became more democratic, it would avoid competition for regional or global hegemony, and the risk of international conflict—hot or cold—would recede.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both propositions</strong> were fundamentally incorrect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After joining the WTO,</strong> China did exactly the opposite of what was predicted. China gamed the organization, pursuing a mercantilist policy in a supposedly free-trade body.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China stole intellectual property,</strong> forced technology transfers from foreign businesses and continued managing its economy in authoritarian ways.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Politically,</strong> China moved away from democracy, not toward it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Xi Jinping,</strong> China now has its most powerful leader and its most centralized government since Mao Zedong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ethnic and religious persecution</strong> on a massive scale continues.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,</strong> China has created a formidable offensive cyberwarfare program, built a blue-water navy for the first time in 500 years, increased its arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and more.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8m1wWm?track_p_id=3bpy8R3EKc_wpPAKZc1t2Y2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8m1wWm?track_p_id=9GwVsv1zuE8R3EKc_VOepKP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Fitting Trade Policy into China Strategy </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8m1wWm?track_p_id=dvl4hA1IyRDCLO8R3EKc_XH" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YsQZjTzZ70HnUlQqorquJ0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8m1wWm?track_p_id=1z8R3EKc_WvSvjy4lacDYMh" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">John Bolton: The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">John Bolton</strong> | former National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After I became Trump’s national security adviser, I had the most futile role of all: I wanted to fit China trade policy into a broader strategic framework.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I saw these developments</strong> as a threat to U.S. strategic interests and to our friends and allies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Obama administration</strong> basically sat back and watched it happen.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> in some respects embodies the growing U.S. concern about China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He appreciates the key truth</strong> that politico-military power rests on a strong economy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump frequently says</strong> that stopping China’s unfair economic growth at America’s expense is the best way to defeat China militarily, which is fundamentally correct.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the real question</strong> is what Trump does about China’s threat.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘His advisers</strong> are badly fractured intellectually.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration has “panda huggers”</strong> like Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Confirmed free-traders</strong> like National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China hawks</strong> like Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, lead trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After I became Trump’s national security adviser</strong> in April 2018, I had the most futile role of all:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I wanted to fit China trade policy</strong> into a broader strategic framework.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We had a good slogan,</strong> calling for a “free and open Indo-Pacific” region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a bumper sticker is not a strategy,</strong> and we struggled to avoid being sucked into the black hole of U.S.-China trade issues.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94CGqu?track_p_id=bqFINSKSYkFP8jna3y_gCal" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94CGqu?track_p_id=8NcDmyxCq8jna3y_eqRrhVA" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump's Foreign Policy Process</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94CGqu?track_p_id=4S6iW8jna3y_5Pw4euBD6xL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YsQZjTzZ70HnUlQqorquJ0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94CGqu?track_p_id=08jna3y_WMKjpK4ePF63yRi" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">John Bolton: The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">John Bolton</strong> | former National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump commingled the personal and the national not just on trade questions but across the whole field of national security.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trade matters</strong> were handled from day one in a completely chaotic way.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s favorite way</strong> to proceed was to get small armies of people together, either in the Oval Office or the Roosevelt Room, to argue out these complex, controversial issues. ‘</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over and over again</strong>, the same issues. Without resolution, or even worse, one outcome one day and a contrary outcome a few days later. The whole thing made my head hurt.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s conversations with Xi</strong> reflected not only the incoherence in his trade policy but also the confluence in Trump’s mind of his own political interests and U.S. national interests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump commingled</strong> the personal and the national not just on trade questions but across the whole field of national security.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I am hard-pressed</strong> to identify any significant Trump decision during my White House tenure that wasn’t driven by re-election calculations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Take Trump’s handling of the threats</strong> posed by the Chinese telecommunications firms Huawei and ZTE.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ross and others repeatedly</strong> pushed to strictly enforce U.S. regulations and criminal laws against fraudulent conduct, including both firms’ flouting of U.S. sanctions against Iran and other rogue states.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most important goal</strong> for Chinese “companies” like Huawei and ZTE is to infiltrate telecommunications and information-technology systems, notably 5G, and subject them to Chinese control (though both companies, of course, dispute the U.S. characterization of their activities).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump, by contrast,</strong> saw this not as a policy issue to be resolved but as an opportunity to make personal gestures to Xi.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2018, for example,</strong> he reversed penalties that Ross and the Commerce Department had imposed on ZTE.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2019,</strong> he offered to reverse criminal prosecution against Huawei if it would help in the trade deal—which, of course, was primarily about getting Trump re-elected in 2020.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump was particularly dyspeptic about Taiwan,</strong> having listened to Wall Street financiers who had gotten rich off mainland China investments.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of Trump’s favorite comparisons</strong> was to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, “This is Taiwan.” '</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Then point to</strong> the historic Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China.” '</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'So much</strong> for American commitments and obligations to another democratic ally.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MMbB2?track_p_id=6zaqcbx6OkYb0_lurnhjW51" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MMbB2?track_p_id=1n6OkYb0_qcC2pkcMKpPF3e" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Matching Actions With Words</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MMbB2?track_p_id=06OkYb0_6I3d5ugfKVr2uXr" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YsQZjTzZ70HnUlQqorquJ0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MMbB2?track_p_id=83Fm%40DVd56OkYb0_kuCA5Af" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">John Bolton: The Scandal of Trump’s China Policy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">John Bolton</strong> | former National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump presidency is not grounded in philosophy, grand strategy or policy. It is grounded in Trump.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In today’s pre-2020 election climate, </strong>Trump has made a sharp turn to anti-China rhetoric.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Frustrated in his search</strong> for the big China trade deal, and mortally afraid of the negative political effects of the coronavirus pandemic on his re-election prospects, Trump has now decided to blame China, with ample justification.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether his actions</strong> will match his words remains to be seen.' </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'His administration </strong>has signaled that Beijing’s suppression of dissent in Hong Kong will have consequences, but no actual consequences have yet been imposed.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most important of all,</strong> will Trump’s current China pose last beyond election day?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump presidency</strong> is not grounded in philosophy, grand strategy, or policy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is grounded</strong> in Trump.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is something</strong> to think about for those, especially China realists, who believe they know what he will do in a second term.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. My Take</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=7XYxSWEb6EiHz4_VbnWiBi3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=5qCMQn6EiHz4_4APlZsLMdf" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">War with China is no Black Swan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=bfk6vNcYbH4T6EiHz4_hIh2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/bFT19iXstQMY7JqN79qvH0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7JCIu8?track_p_id=a6Rqxb4fu646EiHz4_kH55b" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Deterring China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell</strong> | CHINADebate</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When it comes to nuclear weapons, China has 300; the U.S. has 6,200. That’s serious deterrence.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If, say, </strong>China suddenly provoked a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, risk analysts in big corporations and institutional investment funds would cry out in surprise: ‘Black Swan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it will be </strong>anything but.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For quite a while</strong> military and strategic analysts have raised concerns over the risk of war with China and over America’s ability to prevail.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The more confident China’s leaders</strong> are in their own capabilities and the more they doubt the capabilities and resolve of the United States, the greater the chance of miscalculation—a breakdown in deterrence that could bring direct conflict between two nuclear powers,’ writes Michèle A. Flournoy.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'At the same time,</strong> the credibility of U.S. deterrence has been declining.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The last time</strong> the U.S. engaged the Chinese on the battlefield, they fought us to a draw.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That was</strong> the Korean War.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If we went to war today,</strong> there is some doubt that the U.S. could defeat China in the Pacific.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Over the past decade,</strong> in U.S. war games against China, the United States has a nearly perfect record: We have lost almost every single time,” writes Christian Brose.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For as much stir</strong> as Christian Bose’s book, “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/031653353X/ref=as_li_qf_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=thewaspos09-20&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=031653353X&linkId=7e5e3f91d0f740e8aa89ac7468effa99" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare</a>,” has created among civilians, a vital perspective is missing.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Before he </strong><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-mattis-retiring-at-end-of-february-11545344800?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">resigned in December 2018</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> Mattis oversaw the development of a new national defense strategy, which asserted that the long-term competition with China and Russia was the Pentagon’s top priority and cast North Korea, Iran, and terrorists as lesser dangers,’ reports The Wall Street Journal.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The current Pentagon leadership</strong> remains committed to the strategy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S. military</strong> may feel inadequate to take on China with conventional weapons until the transformation is complete, and the Chinese may believe we lack the will to confront them in battle. But it’s worth remembering the backdrop:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When it comes</strong> to nuclear weapons: China has 300; the U.S. has 6,200.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That’s serious</strong> deterrence.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A note about the flashpoint Taiwan.</strong> </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A strategic miscalculation</strong> might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm,’ writes Michèle A. Flournoy.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would be ‘based on</strong> a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-06-11/self-destruction-american-power" rel="nofollow">declining power</a>, <strong style="font-weight: bold">lacking the military capabilities</strong> that might be effective in the face of “<a href="https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/09/13/a2ad_-_anti-accessarea_denial_110052.html" rel="nofollow">anti-access/area-denial</a>” (A2/AD), and <strong style="font-weight: bold">with an </strong><a href="https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/02/its-time-talk-about-taiwan/163291/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">uncertain commitment </strong></a>to defending Taiwan.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China could conclude</strong> that it should move on Taiwan sooner rather than later, a <em style="font-style: italic">fait accompli</em> that a weakened and distracted United States would have to accept.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Add to this</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">Amb. Bolton’s report:</strong> ‘Trump was particularly dyspeptic about Taiwan, having listened to Wall Street financiers who had gotten rich off mainland China investments.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of Trump’s favorite comparisons</strong> was to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, “This is Taiwan.” '</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Then point to</strong> the historic Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China.” '</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'So much</strong> for American commitments and obligations to another democratic ally.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Be interesting</strong> to know how China’s military strategists – after they read Bolton's book - figure this into their decision about whether or not now is the time to invade Taiwan.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/17/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 17, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5B8xfc?track_p_id=c6DJWTT5M3GnI8m2DuQ_l%40t" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5B8xfc?track_p_id=ccEXN5yCaiY3S8m2DuQ_XmV" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Beijing is Different</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5B8xfc?track_p_id=1X8m2DuQ_HatWDl6JSoaEb3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5B8xfc?track_p_id=08m2DuQ_Un2z3ymaQbG%40Ug3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This issue focuses</strong> on a few things to watch out for:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Will the Sino-Indian skirmishes</strong> push India closer to the U.S. and the Quad?</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Will the COVID outbreak</strong> in Beijing threaten China’s economic recovery (through harming consumer confidence) and China’s international image (already tarnished by Wolf Warrior-ism) of having contained the virus?</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Will the recent Asian regional trade treaties</strong> – which the U.S. has declined to participate in - give China the upper hand, or will China’s pushiness cause pushback?</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. Will China’s heavy-handed</strong> use of its companies to meet geopolitical aims continue to backfire (see Huawei)? Will China’s state-capitalism leave the U.S. no choice but to adopt some form of the hated ‘Industrial Policy?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper</strong> into these questions in the posts below.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An Indian Wake Up Call</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">From the reporting, </strong>it seems that the skirmishes on the Sino-Indian (disputed) border will not lead to another war between the two countries.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That reporting</strong> has had the beneficial consequence of shining a spotlight on a relationship that could become a flashpoint, if not for war, for geopolitical reshuffling, more supply chain movement, and ‘Cold War’ reevaluation.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Quad.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>China may be rethinking its participation in Quad:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To deter China’s rising ambitions,</strong> the United States has championed the revival of a robust Quadrilateral Alliance (the Quad) of ‘like-minded’ democratic powers — the United States, Japan, Australia and India.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As India struggles</strong> to respond appropriately, Trump has seized the opportunity to secure a more robust commitment from India regarding its role in the Quad.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But ‘India’s Indo-Pacific vision</strong> is less muscular and more diplomatically nuanced than that of the United States.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So stay tuned</strong> – I predict India beefs up its role in the Quad.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First Blood.’ </strong></span>Jonathan Ward points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This was the first use</strong> of the Chinese army under Xi Jinping against a foreign military, against India.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese regime</strong> has been talking very vocally about preparing to fight and win wars in its region - threatening its neighbors from Japan to the South China Sea to the Himalayan borders.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And this is really the first blood</strong> that this regime in Beijing has taken now in the region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Given the long-standing animosity</strong> between China and India, this ‘first blood’ is not new blood – and probably not even bloodshed ordered by China’s leadership.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So it doesn’t mean</strong> that China is ready to mow down its enemies in other disputes.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it does illustrate</strong> just how otherwise non-violent conflicts can escalate into crises that neither side seems to want.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Making Enemies.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>Jonathan makes another point:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now you're talking about</strong> a world in which China is going to have curtailed economic relations with the world's leading superpower, the United States, and the world's most important emerging market, that is India.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And a host</strong> of other countries in between.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Supply Chains.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> There is also the question</strong> of Sino-Indian economic relations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chinese companies</strong> have invested in India and sought to penetrate the market.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China also supplies</strong> raw materials to India.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And India</strong> likewise sells its products in India.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So another risk</strong> these skirmishes highlight is the possibility of tensions becoming so acute that these endeavors are curtailed and supply chains disrupted.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Swathes of Indian businesses</strong> that rely on raw materials from China suffered in the initial phase of the outbreak that shuttered plants that feed the global supply chain with all sorts of industrial parts.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another bout of disruption</strong> can further prolong a recovery in India’s economy that’s set for its first annual contraction in more than four decades this year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s Phony ‘Cold War’.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> But the most interesting commentary</strong> to me comes from Sajid Farid Shapoo of Princeton.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is trying to portray</strong> the crisis as part of superpower gameplay in the so-called “New Cold War.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a portrayal</strong> comes across as a brazen attempt to present the world with a <em style="font-style: italic">fait accompli</em>: China as an established superpower and an adversarial second pole in the global distribution of power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I had never considered that</strong> China itself would push the 'New Cold War' narrative so that it could stand-in for the Soviet Union in a bi-polar world and become recognized as the 'other' world power. </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For my part,</strong> I don’t follow India or even Sino-Indian relations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the skirmishes</strong> highlight just how important these are to monitor.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The next crisis</strong> could come from the current China-India dispute or the next.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So worth keeping an eye on. </strong>I will.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Indian Wake Up Call</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6oPMK8?track_p_id=4zg2L6qawpi_oD3I5PEnMyU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/iga3x4MVv6rEM-a8GUa4L0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6oPMK8?track_p_id=2w66qawpi_cUUbC5cNg5ABh" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Crisis in Ladakh strengthens US–India relations against China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/S0rTrkOAO8NjzZkKNPEwHDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6oPMK8?track_p_id=dRbHUDPHYGJ%40nK6qawpi_U1" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TxO7G6dvUUiXHVvHapknnki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6oPMK8?track_p_id=06qawpi_35p65WLzHCd2BLm" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Crisis in Ladakh strengthens US–India relations against China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">East Asia Forum</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Vinay Kaura</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> | Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan.</em></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese President Xi Jinping has adopted an increasingly confrontational approach toward India, marking a new low for arguably India’s most important regional relationship.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The face-off</strong> between Indian and Chinese forces has become uglier with the recent deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is the </strong><a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/india-china-live-ladakh-galwan-valley-pangong-latest-news-india-china-border-standoff-indian-army/1993175/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">first such incident</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>in over four decades and likely to change India’s perception of China decisively.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Multiple recent confrontations </strong>at different locations in eastern Ladakh along the disputed India–China boundary clearly indicate a pattern in Beijing’s behaviour and some prior planning.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese President Xi Jinping </strong>has adopted an increasingly confrontational approach toward India, marking a new low for arguably India’s most important regional relationship.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Chinese military deployment</strong> along the Line of Actual Control has been far greater than what was witnessed during the 2017 Doklam standoff.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As India struggles</strong> to respond appropriately, Trump has seized the opportunity to secure a more robust commitment from India regarding its role in the Quad.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To deter China’s rising ambitions,</strong> the United States has championed the revival of a robust Quadrilateral Alliance (the Quad) of ‘like-minded’ democratic powers — the United States, Japan, Australia and India.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India’s Indo-Pacific vision</strong> is less muscular and more diplomatically nuanced than that of the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his keynote speech</strong> at the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue, Modi projected India as a trans-continental ‘pivot state’ that believes in freedom of navigation across international waters, thus embracing the Indo-Pacific and India’s emergence as a global power.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He also praised India’s long tradition</strong> of strategic autonomy by highlighting India’s ability to navigate geopolitical fault lines, demonstrated by simultaneously <a href="https://www.policyforum.net/indo-pacific-no-shangri-la/" rel="nofollow">mentioning the</a> ‘extraordinary breadth’ of India–US relations and the ‘maturity and wisdom’ of India–China relations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Areas of tensions and divergence</strong> between India and China — boundary disputes, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and trade imbalances — seem to be manageable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But these flashpoints</strong> could turn into explosive conflicts combined.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘New Delhi has attempted</strong> to find a <em style="font-style: italic">modus vivendi</em> with Beijing with informal summits between Modi and Xi in Wuhan in April 2018 and Mamallapuram in October 2019.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this is unlikely</strong> to make much of a difference, as India has often found China insensitive to its security concerns.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go Deeper:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NYT: </strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/world/asia/india-china-border-clashes.html" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">'<strong style="font-weight: bold">India-China Border Dispute: A Conflict Explained'</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WAPO: </strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/06/16/2952309a-afaf-11ea-98b5-279a6479a1e4_story.html" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Why Chinese and Indian Troops Are Clashing, Again'</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WSJ:</strong><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-border-conflict-what-we-know-so-far-11592329619" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"> '<strong style="font-weight: bold">India-China Border Conflict: What We Know So Far'</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NYT:</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/asia/india-china-border.html" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'For China and India, a Border Dispute That Never Ended'</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mNObI?track_p_id=3S246v488E_vqVEt1G4ci3V" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/LVEdRSpgxX4CbqTrlPycNEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mNObI?track_p_id=72uLfgYv6v488E_VvZoskS3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China is losing its relationship with India and U.S.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/3zs5JvdOERvzgTV4cj5dwzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mNObI?track_p_id=54yaDV6v488E_NlIs%40mzJmj" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ihz9CRnq6InY4Tnl0m4FHUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7mNObI?track_p_id=3Uw36v488E_aUqoMmdMpwh2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China is losing its relationship with India and U.S.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CNBC</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jonathan Ward</strong> | Atlas Organization.</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now you're talking about a world in which China is going to have curtailed economic relations with the world's leading superpower, the United States, and the world's most important emerging market, that is India.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: ‘Can you talk</strong> about the significance of what has happened between India and China in the last 48 hours?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jonathan Ward: ‘This was the first use</strong> of the Chinese army under Xi Jinping against a foreign military, against India.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese regime</strong> has been talking very vocally about preparing to fight and win wars in its region - threatening its neighbors from Japan to the South China Sea to the Himalayan borders.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And this is really the first blood</strong> that this regime in Beijing has taken now in the region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This brings us to a far bigger picture:</strong> China is losing its relationship with two of the most important countries in the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's lost its relationship</strong> with the United States during the trade war, during the COVID-19 pandemic.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it has lost its relationship</strong> with India effectively.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Think about the Wuhan Summit</strong> - the other Wuhan, not the COVID one - where Modi and Xi Jinping got together in 2018 to diffuse the tensions from Doklam a year earlier.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That spirit </strong>- they called it, the “Spirit of Wuhan” - was meant to create a new wind in the China India relationship.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That's</strong> over now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I keep thinking back to a book</strong> that was written 10 years ago called “The $10 Trillion Prize.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It said to global corporations:</strong> “Go to the India market, go to the China market,” this is your future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now you're talking about</strong> a world in which China is going to have curtailed economic relations with the world's leading superpower, the United States, and the world's most important emerging market, that is India.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘You're going to have</strong> a very different economic picture as the U.S.-India relationship coheres around this problem.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And every corporate officer</strong> and institutional investor needs to be prepared for a world in which you have a confrontation against China by two of the most important democracies in the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4t3JB2?track_p_id=2Qe8Hn7PS_4aEWhWfpDN2p5" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/w_jZpiALFdE1bDNTcn4gv0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4t3JB2?track_p_id=9j43Q6dcsH8Hn7PS_ZN31AN" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The China-India Standoff and the Myth of a New Cold War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4t3JB2?track_p_id=4opp18Hn7PS_iJYdoyRFX%40M" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/9eMCd__EPTJ-mMduBZA4I0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4t3JB2?track_p_id=aRanJLbcMOD8Hn7PS_do3NC" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The China-India Standoff and the Myth of a New Cold War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Diplomat</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sajid Farid Shapoo</strong> | Princeton University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Viewing the current Sino-Indian stand off as a part of global geopolitical gameplay would be an example of strategic myopia. Chinese belligerence should in fact be seen more through the context of its emerging self-narrative of China as the second pole in the new bipolar world.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A recent </strong><a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1190096.shtml" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">report</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> in </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> a state-owned Chinese daily, while commenting on the ongoing border standoff between China and India, advised India not to engage and get embroiled in the larger U.S.-China confrontation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Baked in the advice</strong> was also a subtle warning that becoming a U.S. front in the “New Cold War” could be detrimental for the Indian economy and its interests in the region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The report</strong> is revealing in many ways.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It signals</strong> that a section of, if not all, Chinese policymakers see the present Sino-Indian standoff as an outcome of India’s willingness to toe the U.S. line on China, rather than one of many border disputes that have emerged between the two countries since the demarcation of territories after the Sino-Indian war in 1962.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More importantly</strong> it reiterates the Chinese rhetoric of the heralding of a “New Cold War” era between the United States and China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a portrayal</strong> comes across as a brazen attempt to present the world with a <em style="font-style: italic">fait accompli</em>:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China as an established superpower</strong> and an adversarial second pole in the global distribution of power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> viewing the current Sino-Indian standoff as a part of global geopolitical gameplay would be an example of strategic myopia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not the first time</strong> that India and China have come face to face on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), that came to be the <em style="font-style: italic">de facto border</em> between the two countries after the 1962 Sino-Indian War.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese belligerence</strong> should in fact be seen more through the context of its emerging self-narrative of China as the second pole in the new bipolar world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leader Xi Jinping</strong> sees the time as ripe for replacing the “rising China” narrative with the rhetoric of China having arrived as a global superpower.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Xi,</strong> China must now claim its position in the global distribution of power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The current border standoff</strong> is thus being projected more in terms of global geopolitics.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is trying to portray</strong> the crisis as part of superpower gameplay in the so-called “New Cold War.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s backdoor machinations</strong> of claiming superpower status are predicated on its ability to be accepted first as a regional hegemon.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its lingering disputes</strong> with most of its neighbors would make it difficult for regional states to accept or accord such a status to China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India by playing on its own strengths</strong> would deny China the strategic space it is trying to grab by casting the present crisis as a part of the “New Cold War” between the United States and China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> it should solely be seen and handled purely as a bilateral dispute between the two neighbors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DO3lo?track_p_id=66eEXPl4zH8By_GlD55My42" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DO3lo?track_p_id=bxAJPjEyPdoo4zH8By_Rqb5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China-India Clashes May Spur Companies to Rework Supply Pacts </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/pg13qseg4YoCAOPP-ErGQTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DO3lo?track_p_id=dnQW1JCWKJ3yZS4zH8By_j3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/qq3LtMieWcS-GBKp_GAIN0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DO3lo?track_p_id=6qJyNPq4zH8By_lsVupdb3s" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China-India Clashes May Spur Companies to Rework Supply Pacts </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India and China, which together account for a population exceeding 2.7 billion, are key markets for each other’s firms.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While India in a statement </strong>late Tuesday said it remains committed to peace on the border with China, an escalation risks disruption for firms from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/9988:HK" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/1810:HK" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Xiaomi Corp.</a> to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TTMT:IN" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Tata Motors Ltd.</a> that have customers -- and investors -- in two of the world’s biggest economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “A gamut of companies</strong> importing parts or capital from China will have to find alternative sources quickly if tensions escalate,” said Aneesh Srivastava, chief investment officer at Star Health and Allied Insurance Co.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The makers</strong> of white goods, luggage bags, auto components and some of the e-commerce companies may have to rework their business strategy.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Swathes of Indian businesses</strong> that rely on raw materials from China suffered in the initial phase of the outbreak that shuttered plants that feed the global supply chain with all sorts of industrial parts.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another bout of disruption</strong> can further prolong a recovery in India’s economy that’s set for its first annual contraction in more than four decades this year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The challenge now</strong> is to de-escalate as the scale of the previous conflicts “was very small,” according to Dai Ming, Shanghai-based fund manager at Hengsheng Asset Management Co.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I don’t think the tensions</strong> will affect Chinese firms’ investments or businesses in India just yet,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stay tuned.</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. COVID Comes to Beijing</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7My1PU?track_p_id=8F4jtTZND7K2YWs_3T3FdxS" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7My1PU?track_p_id=9MGOpX2A2G7K2YWs_4YAeJE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Beijing coronavirus outbreak piles pressure on Communist party</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7My1PU?track_p_id=2en7K2YWs_RYt%404WEZ3%40wvP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/w2R69AFwewBF6x4D6jKu1Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7My1PU?track_p_id=9U%40yWDWiLd7K2YWs_%40xPqbU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Beijing coronavirus outbreak piles pressure on Communist party | Financial Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Beijing is different. Beijing is the political centre of the People’s Republic of China. Any mishap in Beijing would damage the Communist party’s political image globally.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s leaders</strong> have been fighting coronavirus from behind Beijing’s walls for months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Authorities have spared no expense</strong> to keep the capital city of 20m safe from contagion — even going as far as diverting overseas flights to neighbouring cities to avoid imported cases on their turf.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But an outbreak</strong> within Beijing has shattered the capital’s sense of calm.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new cluster of coronavirus cases</strong> has put Beijing on a “wartime” footing and reinvigorated efforts to stop the spread of the disease across the city and beyond.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The health scare</strong> has also raised the economic and political pressure on the Communist party — not in distant provinces but on its doorstep.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zhou Xun,</strong> a reader in modern history at the University of Essex and a specialist on health intervention under the Communist party, said officials may lock down other cities suffering outbreaks, as they did last month in the north-eastern Chinese city of Shulan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a full lockdown of the capital city</strong>, home to the country’s senior leadership, is out of the question given its political symbolism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Beijing is different,”</strong> Prof Zhou said. “Beijing is the political centre of the People’s Republic of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Any mishap in Beijing</strong> would damage the Communist party’s political image globally.” Prof Zhou added: “A new outbreak, even though it’s relatively minor compared to the earlier one in Wuhan, would challenge the narrative of ‘success’ and present a real test politically.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese social media users</strong> were quick to point out that, despite a serious new cluster of cases, Beijing authorities have not locked down the whole city.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The phrase “Beijing lockdown”</strong> was widely shared on Chinese microblogging site Weibo on Tuesday.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It’s OK to lockdown Wuhan . . . </strong>it’s OK to lockdown Shulan — why is Beijing unlockable? Is it that it has some kind of special rights?” a Weibo user with the screen name Liwupu asked.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another user called Gundongdeqiu</strong> said the situation “was simply unfair . . . A Chinese characteristic.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The breaching of Beijing</strong> will raise concerns over economic stability, too.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The latest virus outbreak in Beijing</strong> complicates the outlook further,” said Yu Song, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He noted that local authorities</strong> had taken swift action to bring the situation under control.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “But these actions</strong> come at an economic cost and, maybe more importantly, people’s sentiment has likely been affected.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is recovering</strong> from its most severe collapse in economic growth in recent memory..</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Retail sales growth</strong> has shown a considerable recovery from one of its largest contractions on record.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In May,</strong> growth in retail sales was down just 2.8 per cent compared with the same time last year, a significant improvement on a month earlier. Data released on Monday showed that shoppers were buying more home appliances and cars than they were a year ago.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But economists now worry</strong> that optimism among average Chinese consumers could be damaged by the Beijing outbreak.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “All told,</strong> while a sudden economic stop due to new infections is unlikely, the growth prospects have unfortunately turned gloomier due to recent virus dynamics,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Therefore,</strong> it again means a V-shaped recovery remains a distant scenario.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Responsibility </strong>for cleaning up Beijing’s outbreak has fallen to Cai Qi, the capital’s party boss and a protégé of Chinese president Xi Jinping.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Jiang Chaoliang,</strong> the former party secretary of Hubei province, was sacked in February for the outbreak there, although he was not one of the president’s longtime allies. A series of other officials who have presided over virus clusters have also been sacked.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Cai risks</strong> suffering a similar fate if Beijing’s status as a fortress is not quickly restored.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. East Asia Decouples from the U.S.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6pXkqO?track_p_id=dSLAyrPCSbUZN16SBAb8_Fc" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TiISon2f36FD5_ms-2WONki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6pXkqO?track_p_id=7mOb1k436SBAb8_cHvzC6bF" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">East Asia decouples from the United States: East Asia's new trade blocs</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Nfc-rsJVKFnnQY09twPFgjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6pXkqO?track_p_id=3Udx6SBAb8_mtKtlWUO2llt" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/yyY5itLSpDC27L4ha0LH8Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6pXkqO?track_p_id=7oXiAk2S6SBAb8_q5AhKIZy" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">East Asia decouples from the United States: East Asia's new trade blocs</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peter A. Petri</strong> | PIIE</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael G. Plummer</strong> | Johns Hopkins University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">better</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">or</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">worse,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">new</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">frameworks</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">for</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">East</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">Asian</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">economic</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">integration</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">now</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">depend</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">on</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">regional</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">initiatives.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp20-9.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong></a>the 35-page report.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The deepening US-China trade war</strong> and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Alongside these developments,</strong> two new megaregional trade agreements,’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership</strong> (CPTPP) and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</strong> (RCEP),’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘will refocus</strong> East Asia’s economic ties in the region itself.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The agreements</strong> will raise global national incomes in 2030 by an annual $147 billion and $186 billion, respectively.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They will yield</strong> especially large benefits for China, Japan, and South Korea and losses for the United States and India.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">better</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">or</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">worse,</strong> new frameworks for East Asian economic integration now depend on regional initiatives.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘RCEP</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">was</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">launched</strong> in 2012 in this vein, committed to “a modern, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually beneficial economic partnership…to facilitate the expansion of regional trade and investment and contribute to global economic growth and stability.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">RCEP</strong> has had to navigate historic tensions between members’ regional and global.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘East</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">Asian</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">economic</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">relations</strong> were primarily regional until the end of World War II, when political and economic upheaval created global opportunities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">next</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">four</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">decades,</strong> trade shifted toward global ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">early</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">1990s,</strong> however, the region’s tremendous growth reversed these trends; regional markets and supply chains attracted increased regional trade.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Only</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong> continued to grow globally, but that trend is now also ebbing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new accords</strong> are moving forward without the United States and India, once seen as critical partners in the CPTPP and RCEP, respectively.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">exit</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">of</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">United</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">States</strong> from the CPTPP and India from RCEP, the two agreements will enhance rather than limit China’s regional influence.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">exits</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">reflect</strong> similar motives in both countries, including nationalist policies on one hand, and fears of losing ground to China in economic and strategic competition on the world stage.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ceding</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">leadership</strong> of East Asian trade policy to China will address neither of these.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'From</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">viewpoint</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">of</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">US</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">policy</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">goals,</strong> US neglect of East Asia, beyond trade agreements that benefit solely the United States, comes at an unusually bad time.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">US-China</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">trade</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">war</strong> is forcing the region into deciding between inefficient bilateral “deals” with the United States and meaningful regional integration efforts that cede influence to China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘COVID-19</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">and</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">US</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">initiatives</strong> that disrupt global trade governance further incentivize regional solutions to preserve key trading relationships within the region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Chinese Companies & Geopolitics</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8esNZg?track_p_id=9rr62U1WkD5hRPDC_H6IcWA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/GxM8IqmktFxt0MIhoCyPBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8esNZg?track_p_id=a2wxo3lUwU25hRPDC_XAoT6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China, Inc. Blurs Commercial and Strategic Objectives</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8rZeb2?track_p_id=3n6x9BOZYs_mRgc65Po%40XFc" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China Uses It Companies to Expand Global Influence</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Quarterley</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Geoffrey Gertz</strong> | Brookings Institution</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Miles M. Evers</strong> | University of Connecticut</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is using its network of state-aligned firms to expand its global influence.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whereas the Cold War</strong> was waged primarily on ideological and military grounds, the emergent rivalry between the United States and China is primarily economic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the last two decades,</strong> the Chinese and US economies integrated to levels that would have been unimaginable in the US-Soviet Union context.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the apparent success</strong> of China’s state capitalist model, which combines elements of a market economy with substantial government intervention in key sectors, suggests a potentially stronger and more resilient rival to US capitalism than Soviet-style communism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Businesses have become key actors</strong> in contemporary geopolitics.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Businesses</strong> are often crucial instruments in economic competition as they occupy the hubs that link the global economy, and their active engagement is required for economic statecraft to be exercised effectively.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet, businesses</strong> are not necessarily under the direct authority of states and may have views and interests on the strategies and tactics of economic competition that diverge from those of their home governments.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This divergence</strong> suggests that the nature of business-government relations, and specifically the degree of alignment between commercial enterprises and the state, is a key variable in assessing states’ economic statecraft capabilities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This business-state relations frame</strong> is particularly important for making sense of US-China geoeconomic competition.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The biggest geopolitical rivals</strong> today are on opposite ends of the spectrum of firm-government relations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government</strong> exerts substantial control over Chinese businesses, while the US government has far less influence over the US private sector. This difference helps explain the contours of US-China competition today:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is using its network</strong> of state-aligned firms to expand its global influence, while a suspicious United States seeks to check its geoeconomic rise.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the United States</strong> is constrained in this clash, relying primarily on sticks rather than carrots to sway US companies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We expect both</strong> that the existing structure of business-state relations will shape the US-China rivalry, largely to the benefit of China, and that’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the drive to compete with China</strong> will lead the US government to increasingly seek additional sources of leverage over US firms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8rZeb2?track_p_id=e2RWwdv6C4CVPdc9BOZYs_y" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/GxM8IqmktFxt0MIhoCyPBki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8rZeb2?track_p_id=9ElyZe5Q3G9BOZYs_kkGI51" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China Uses It Companies to Expand Global Influence</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8esNZg?track_p_id=8jeTbI25Z5hRPDC_dd6WZDe" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China, Inc. Blurs Commercial and Strategic Objectives</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Quarterley</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Geoffrey Gertz</strong> | Brookings Institution</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Miles M. Evers</strong> | University of Connecticut</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the Chinese state doesn’t necessarily control every decision that businesses take when the Communist Party comes calling with a particular request, businesses—whether state-owned or private—are highly incentivized to comply.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government</strong> has close, cooperative relations with Chinese businesses —an outcome of its mixed economy model, which combines elements of market competition with extensive government intervention.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ruling Communist Party</strong> has a long history of economic planning—such as setting five-year plans —which has compelled it to develop a range of tools and strategies, including both carrots and sticks, for guiding business activity.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most obviously,</strong> many large Chinese corporations are directly owned by the state.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These state-owned enterprises (SOEs)</strong> dominate lists of China’s largest firms including in key strategic sectors such as banking, oil, utilities, chemicals, and construction.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While debates continue</strong> to rage on the extent to which these SOEs are commercially versus politically oriented, they provide the Chinese state with valuable vehicles for carrying out its foreign economic policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the Chinese government</strong> wants to strategically purchase oil from a particular ally or cut off soybean imports to send a message to an intransigent trading partner, it can direct SOEs to do so.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consider, for example, China’s BRI,</strong> which has been variously described as President Xi Jinping’s “signature foreign policy initiative” and as a loosely defined array of disorganized deals, driven above all by firms’ profit motives.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In truth,</strong> the BRI combines elements of both of these concepts: it is simultaneously.' <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘an effort by the Chinese state</strong> to advance its geopolitical interests and influence, as well as’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘an effort by firms</strong>—most notably Chinese SOEs—to access new markets.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is clear,</strong> however, is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has devoted considerable political and financial capital to championing BRI, at least partially to position China at the center of new trade and investment networks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Investments in roads,</strong> railways, ports, pipelines, and other infrastructure strengthen interdependencies between BRI partner countries and China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet these projects</strong> are only possible because the state can mobilize SOEs to quickly and affordably carry out the government’s plans (based on one estimate, SOEs account for half of all BRI projects by number and for 70 percent by total value).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover, the distinction</strong> between state-owned and private companies in China is not always so clear, as the government exercises substantial influence over all businesses operating in the economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For instance, CCP officials</strong> are frequently embedded in private firms. Such Party cells have existed for many years, but under Xi Jinping they are playing an ever-larger role in steering private companies, both foreign and domestic.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whereas the cells</strong> were once primarily symbolic, recently Party officials have begun seeking to more directly manage and influence business decisions, or as one analyst put it, to “have a seat at the table when executives are making big calls on investment.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And even without</strong> formal channels of influence, informal practices—such as the traditional practice of <em style="font-style: italic">Guanxi</em>, or deploying personal or social connections to get favors—encourage substantial government influence over business decisions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All of this means</strong> that, with the Chinese government taking on a larger role in shaping private firms’ business decisions, the distinctions between state-owned and private companies are blurring.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As one expert recently noted,</strong> “Chinese domestic laws and administrative guidelines, as well as unspoken regulations and internal party committees, make it quite difficult to distinguish between what is private and what is state-owned.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even when the Chinese state</strong> isn’t directly influencing businesses’ decisionmaking processes, the CCP uses a range of commercial incentives and inducements that encourage firms to voluntarily align their interests with those of the state.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country’s activist industrial policy</strong> creates multiple opportunities for the government to guide commercial activity and ensures close channels of communication between the state and business groups.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example, the Made in China 2025 program,</strong> a 10-year strategy launched in 2015, identifies the Chinese government’s ambitions to develop indigenous innovation in key technology sectors and ultimately capture global markets.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through setting targets for these sectors,</strong> the government encourages firms to shape their own business decisions to align with the state’s priorities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also uses subsidized financing</strong> to channel capital to favored firms in key sectors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For all of the above reasons,</strong> the Chinese state has substantial formal and informal influence over both state-owned and private firms, and firms have strong incentives to align their interests and activities with those of the state.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the Chinese state</strong> doesn’t necessarily control every decision that businesses take when the Communist Party comes calling with a particular request, businesses—whether state-owned or private—are highly incentivized to comply.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This influence allows</strong> the Chinese government to weaponize interdependence and implement its economic statecraft agenda more easily and aggressively than it otherwise could.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/13/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 13, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wMRhA?track_p_id=9Nu6c3IAwG5bsKxq_hjsbpb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wMRhA?track_p_id=1a5bsKxq_2l4ZjfkGkMqoXU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Remember Pearl Harbor!'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wMRhA?track_p_id=dQMKQ1SqEeFjZw5bsKxq_q%40" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8wMRhA?track_p_id=6wMyjGe5bsKxq_Wajet3gcc" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump </strong>is obsessed with destroying Huawei.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He has tried to cajole allies</strong> into rejecting Huawei’s 5G technology.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He’s banned sales</strong> of U.S. semiconductor chips to Huawei.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And soon</strong> it appears he will ban the sale to Huawei of all chips that use U.S. know-how or equipment.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He has </strong>the wrong target.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Or he has</strong> just one of the targets.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If he really wanted </strong>to cripple China’s growth in technology, he would use these and other tools to starve China of semiconductors all together.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And thereby</strong> blunt its economic, intelligence, and military threats.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Semiconductors figure </strong>into just about every aspect of tech production.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Chinese government </strong>has invested billions into its own semiconductor industry to gain independence from outside sources.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And it </strong>has failed.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">No semiconductors, </strong>no ‘Made in China 2025,’ no ‘New Infrastructure Plan.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S. </strong>has its own semiconductor problems.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s largest exports,</strong> and American companies that design and sell chips still account for nearly half of global revenue in the sector, the greatest share of any country.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the United States</strong> only accounts for around 12 percent of global semiconductor production capacity,' reports The New York Times.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This puts</strong> America’s semiconductor supply at risk.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Administration officials</strong> and others in Washington also believe that Taiwan, a major supplier of advanced chips, is vulnerable to Chinese invasion or influence, one motivation behind trying to bring T.S.M.C.’s manufacturing to the United States,’ reports The New York Times.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To lessen the risks</strong>, Congress is doing something incredibly smart.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s technological ambitions</strong> are eliciting rare bipartisan agreement in Washington, with lawmakers considering investing tens of billions of dollars in America’s semiconductor industry over the next five to 10 years to help the United States retain an edge over Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While past government subsidies</strong> have largely focused on chip research, the latest bill puts a heavy emphasis on domestic manufacturing,’ reports The New York Times.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S. is securing</strong> its supply of semiconductors, while cutting off, at least to Huawei, China’s supply.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now if only</strong> we had a serious debate about these issues and a comprehensive national strategy carried out by competent officials.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Cutting of China’s semiconductor supply,</strong> even just to Huawei, is provocative.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It harkens back</strong> to the U.S.’s cutting off Japan’s supply of oil before the attack on Pearl Harbor.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A proximate cause </strong>of Japan’s attack.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Let us imagine </strong>that the Trump administration actually implements the ban on all sales of advanced semiconductors and equipment to manufacture semiconductors to China,’ writes Harvard Kennedy School’s Graham Allison.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If President Xi Jinping</strong> concludes that this is a matter of life and death for his champion advanced technology company that is the poster child for his signature program promising Chinese technological leadership by 2025 and 2030, then what options does China have?’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The leading producer </strong>of advanced semiconductors for Huawei is the Taiwanese company TSMC.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its factories</strong> that supply Huawei and other leading Chinese technology companies are located ninety miles off the shore of the Chinese mainland.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As relations between the United States and China</strong> worsen over the months ahead, could Beijing decide to try to make Taiwan the solution to its advanced semiconductor problem?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The thought that the United States and China </strong>could find themselves in a real, hot, bloody war will strike many readers as inconceivable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the summer of 1941,</strong> the possibility that a nation less than one-quarter the size of the United States would launch a bolt from the blue against the most powerful nation in the world was beyond Washington’s imagination.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Something to consider</strong> as we make our series of uncoordinated actions to thwart China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As was commonly said</strong> when I was a boy, ‘Remember Pearl Harbor!’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also in today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘The Belt & Road Initiative and China’s “Civil-Military Fusion.” ’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘BRI investments</strong> offer Beijing not only economic partnerships with governments but also a framework for military cooperation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Plus a potential </strong>Chinese military installation in Cambodia, which ‘could easily become the Achilles’ heel of the U.S. containment strategy in the region.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 5. ‘Zoom Zoom Zoom.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Zoom stepped in it</strong> when it caved to Chinese pressure and terminated meetings commemorating the Tiananmen Massacre emanating from China as well as user accounts including those of U.S. subscribers.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Members of the House and Senate</strong> have sent letters to Zoom CEO Eric Yuan demanding explanations.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And Bill Bishop</strong> is asking 12 questions that should become the template not just for investigating Zoom but any other U.S. company that bows to China’s censorship demands.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues - Browse the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. The Semiconductor War: CARROT</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4qN1uq?track_p_id=ai6jd5Fni4354WTBG_gS53d" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4qN1uq?track_p_id=9qclddo4Yo54WTBG_WnPqhL" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Lawmakers Push to Invest Billions in Semiconductor Industry to Counter China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4qN1uq?track_p_id=6YFd5o654WTBG_LjzbiyjjR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TXbdWRDICuGCAj_8Cj_l5Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4qN1uq?track_p_id=4ZOea54WTBG_S1tCqtpwx4K" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Lawmakers Push to Invest Billions in Semiconductor Industry to Counter China - The New York Times</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While past government subsidies have largely focused on chip research, the latest bill puts a heavy emphasis on domestic manufacturing.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s technological ambitions</strong> are eliciting rare bipartisan agreement in Washington, with lawmakers considering investing tens of billions of dollars in America’s semiconductor industry over the next five to 10 years to help the United States retain an edge over Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While past government subsidies</strong> have largely focused on chip research, the latest bill puts a heavy emphasis on domestic manufacturing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The shift in Congress mirrors</strong> one in the Trump administration, which has rejected traditional Republican support of free trade in favor of a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/business/trump-trade-deals-free-markets.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">more managed approach</a> to compete with China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Trump’s advisers</strong> have zeroed in on the semiconductor industry, which was born in the United States but has partly migrated to Asia in recent decades, as the test case for their plan to use trade and technology policies to return manufacturing to American shores.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For many months,</strong> officials in the Departments of Defense, State and Commerce have been trying to woo chip makers including Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to expand their manufacturing footprint in the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In May, T.S.M.C. </strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/technology/trump-tsmc-us-chip-facility.html" rel="nofollow">announced plans to build </a>an advanced chip facility in Arizona.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That plan is contingent</strong> on securing funding from Congress, which would likely come through the bill introduced this week.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Semiconductors </strong>are still one of America’s largest exports, and American companies that design and sell chips still account for nearly half of global revenue in the sector, the greatest share of any country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the United States</strong> only accounts for around 12 percent of global semiconductor production capacity.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Decades ago,</strong> domestic designers began turning to foundries in places like Taiwan and South Korea to manufacture their chips.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Administration officials</strong> and others in Washington also believe that Taiwan, a major supplier of advanced chips, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/business/economy/china-taiwan-huawei-tsmc.html" rel="nofollow">is vulnerable </a>to Chinese invasion or influence, one motivation behind trying to bring T.S.M.C.’s manufacturing to the United States.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the last year,</strong> the Trump administration has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/15/business/huawei-ban-trump.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">introduced</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/business/huawei-us-ban.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">a variety</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/business/economy/commerce-department-huawei.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">of measures</a> aimed at cutting Chinese companies off from American technology exports and investment opportunities and crippling the Chinese telecom giant Huawei, which they view as a national security threat.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the administration</strong> has done little to build up other companies that could compete with Huawei and other Chinese technology leaders.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result,</strong> American efforts to get countries around the world to excise Huawei from their telecom networks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/us/politics/us-huawei-5g.html" rel="nofollow">have been largely unsuccessful</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The semiconductor legislation</strong> is co-sponsored by Senators John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, and Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, and Representatives Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas, and Doris Matsui, Democrat of California.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It could be rolled</strong> into the next economic stimulus package or a defense bill that may be considered this summer.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. The Semiconductor War: STICK</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6sKnw0?track_p_id=6Dip2t39Byd6E_efxrfVEJP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6sKnw0?track_p_id=6cBkvLd9Byd6E_eWNoVykU2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Huawei and the U.S.-China Tech War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/h2qvAB-6IJCdg-slmifDsDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6sKnw0?track_p_id=51uQm29Byd6E_BNHhMrZitv" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/8v0GhLGK86CYIZ2gXxZOC0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6sKnw0?track_p_id=54Va1J9Byd6E_rld1Y1lfN3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Huawei and the U.S.-China Tech War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Editorial Board </strong>| Wall Street Journal</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Commerce’s interim final rule, still subject to revision, means that if a foreign foundry fills a Huawei order using U.S. technology, it will be violating American law.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Commerce Department</strong> in May tightened its regulatory vise on Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, and it’s important to recognize the magnitude of what is happening.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.</strong> isn’t merely sanctioning a misbehaving firm. ‘</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s forcibly decoupling</strong> computer technology supply chains from China, a move that will accelerate the fracture of at least part of the world economy into two spheres of influence.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump Administration</strong> has exhorted countries around the world to spurn Huawei equipment as they construct next-generation communications grids.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now the Administration</strong> is supplementing its diplomacy with an aggressive use of economic power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s trying to diminish</strong> Huawei by cutting off its access to crucial supplies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While Huawei’s most valuable service</strong>—5G wireless—is invisible, it still requires physical computer chips for hardware.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year</strong> the Administration blocked the export to Huawei of American-made chips.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now it’s going further,</strong> declaring that even chips made with U.S. equipment—anywhere in the world—can’t legally be sold to Huawei.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This could have</strong> a dramatic impact on supply chains.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American software and machinery</strong> are crucial to fabricating advanced chips, and it’s been exported to manufacturers, or foundries, in countries across the globe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Commerce’s interim final rule,</strong> still subject to revision, means that if a foreign foundry fills a Huawei order using U.S. technology, it will be violating American law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Exemptions</strong> are expected to be rare.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some question</strong> whether the U.S. can enforce the sale ban in a complex industry scattered worldwide.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the success of U.S. sanctions</strong> against Iran highlights Washington’s ability to monitor global transactions when it is a high priority.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thanks to America’s leading position</strong> in semiconductors going back to the 20th century, U.S. law is still a gatekeeper to the most sophisticated microchips.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Washington</strong> can likely block China from achieving technological parity with the U.S.—for now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the long-term,</strong> securing the communications network from China will require carrots as well as sticks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That means</strong> making 5G cheaper so countries can say no to Huawei.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. The Semiconductor War: HOT WAR</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5KJzBg?track_p_id=5UPVYT8ph7OA_33uYo2znWU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/15iB4h5--Bc60ZQrlKal_0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5KJzBg?track_p_id=08ph7OA_fZmMwED2Db6oJIP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Could Donald Trump’s War Against Huawei Trigger a Real War With China?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/PcClqdqg0xTNOr5GZWK2bDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5KJzBg?track_p_id=dbiH6nvljCpBt38ph7OA_zF" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/u-03rgQzJ7a97OiHSIGALki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5KJzBg?track_p_id=5V3Yvo8ph7OA_KeeKew3DYZ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Could Donald Trump’s War Against Huawei Trigger a Real War With China?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The National Interest</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Graham T. Allison </strong>| Harvard Kennedy School & author of <em style="font-style: italic">Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?</em></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As relations between the United States and China worsen over the months ahead, could Beijing decide to try to make Taiwan the solution to its advanced semiconductor problem?’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After months of diplomatic efforts </strong>to dissuade other nations from buying their <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/mistake-banning-huawei-makes-it-harder-access-5g-117961" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">5G infrastructure</a> from <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/tag/huawei" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Huawei</a>, the administration delivered what one official called a “death blow.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On May 15,</strong> the Commerce Department banned all sales of advanced semiconductors from American suppliers to Huawei.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also prohibited</strong> all sales of equipment to design and produce advanced semiconductors by foreign companies that use U.S. technology or intellectual property.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the five months</strong> between now and the election, could the U.S. attempt to enforce that ban become a twenty-first-century equivalent of the oil embargo the United States <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/1-reason-imperial-japan-attacked-pearl-harbor-oil-88771" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">imposed</a> on Japan in August 1941?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While many people</strong> may not remember what happened, and while it was certainly not what the United States intended or anticipated, that action precipitated Japan’s attack on <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-japan%E2%80%99s-attack-pearl-harbor-might-have-been-unavoidable-155231" rel="nofollow">Pearl Harbor </a>four months later—and America’s entry into World War II.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The thought that the United States and China </strong>could find themselves in a real, hot, bloody war will strike many readers as inconceivable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the summer of 1941,</strong> the possibility that a nation less than one-quarter the size of the United States would launch a bolt from the blue against the most powerful nation in the world was beyond Washington’s imagination.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To punish Japan</strong> for its military aggression against its neighbors in the late 1930s, the United States had initially imposed sanctions, and later an embargo on exports of high-grade scrap iron and aviation fuel to Japan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When these failed to stop its expansion,</strong> Washington ratcheted up the pressure by including essential raw materials such as iron, brass, and copper.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally, on August 1, 1941,</strong> Franklin D. Roosevelt announced that the United States would embargo all oil shipments to Japan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Eighty percent of Japan’s oil</strong> came from the United States, and Japan’s military forces required that oil to operate at home as well as across the Greater Co-prosperity Area in Northeast Asia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Facing what it saw</strong> as a choice between slow but sure strangulation, on the one hand, and taking an extreme chance that offered hope of survival, on the other, the government chose to take its chance with what it hoped would be a “knockout blow”—a bold preemptive attack aimed to destroy the U.S. Pacific Navy stationed at Pearl Harbor.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Let us imagine </strong>that the Trump administration actually implements the ban on all sales of advanced semiconductors and equipment to manufacture semiconductors to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If President Xi Jinping</strong> concludes that this is a matter of life and death for his champion advanced technology company that is the poster child for his signature program promising Chinese technological leadership by 2025 and 2030, then what options does China have?’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The leading producer </strong>of advanced semiconductors for Huawei is the Taiwanese company TSMC.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its factories</strong> that supply Huawei and other leading Chinese technology companies are located ninety miles off the shore of the Chinese mainland.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As relations between the United States and China</strong> worsen over the months ahead, could Beijing decide to try to make Taiwan the solution to its advanced semiconductor problem?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In sum,</strong> as I wrote in <em style="font-style: italic">Destined for War?,</em> we should expect things to get worse before they get worse.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the United States</strong> increasingly demonizes a rising China that is threatening to displace us from our position of leadership in every arena, and China pushes back to ensure that it can achieve its China Dream, both should be acutely aware that Thucydidean rivalries most often end in real wars.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In sum:</strong> the remainder of 2020 could pose as severe a test for the United States and China as the final five months of 1941 did for the United States and Japan.’ </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. BRI & China's 'Civil Military Fusion' </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8pOiuW?track_p_id=2Zu52ZTf4_vWdBtiVCG3pzU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8pOiuW?track_p_id=052ZTf4_6aVDKDbhXWcwWpR" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">BRI: Backdoor to Chinese Military Bases?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/0fxMrAQbo3YMyslqp9JlsTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4kCWsy?track_p_id=6NdAMNs7dndXi_FO64G6QMD" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/a8hlq3LVMfCKFnplb21IH0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4kCWsy?track_p_id=cJIQf4PYEznQI7dndXi_Xvt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Has Designs on Democracy in Southeast Asia</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sam Rainsy</strong> | Cambodia National Rescue Party</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘BRI investments offer Beijing not only economic partnerships with governments but also a framework for military cooperation.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Chinese President Xi Jinping </strong>unveiled China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, he promoted it as an effort to build soft power internationally by means of major infrastructure projects and loans to developing countries.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Xi</strong> has since increased focus on a strategy of <a href="https://www.state.gov/remarks-and-releases-bureau-of-international-security-and-nonproliferation/mcf-and-the-prc/" rel="nofollow">military-civil fusion </a>that has systematically erased the division between China’s domestic commercial and defense sectors.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In so doing,</strong> the policy has also eroded the line between Chinese soft power and hard power overseas.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result of laws</strong> Xi’s government enacted in 2015 and 2016, Chinese cargo vessels must now be built to military standards.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese civilian companies</strong> engaged in international shipping are required to provide supplies to Chinese military vessels when needed.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the disputed waters of the South China Sea,</strong> even Chinese <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3045662/why-fishing-boats-are-territorial-front-lines-south-china-sea" rel="nofollow">fishing boats </a>have been used to enforce China’s territorial claims.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The BRI investments,</strong> meanwhile, offer Beijing not only economic partnerships with governments but also a framework for military cooperation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The </strong><a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/566ef8b4d8af107232d5358a/t/5ad5e20ef950b777a94b55c3/1523966489456/Harbored+Ambitions.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Advanced Defense Studies</strong></a>f ound in 2017 that China, by investing in commercial ports in the Asia-Pacific region, routinely makes its national security interests a higher priority than economic development.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And as the </strong><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/FP_20190930_china_basing_karlin_dreyfuss.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Brookings Institution </strong></a>noted in September 2019 of China’s BRI investments, “These infrastructure projects are quicker to build, easier to operationalize than proper military bases, considerably less expensive to establish and maintain, and nonetheless effectively Chinese-owned.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through the BRI investment projects,</strong> particularly in ports and coastal areas, the Chinese government is building a robust infrastructure in strategic foreign locations, even as it plausibly denies that these efforts serve any military purpose.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> because of the investments, China now has far-flung economic interests to protect—and for which it needs and can justify developing nearby defensive capabilities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From there,</strong> developing offensive capabilities will require relatively little additional investment.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As China expands</strong> its presence overseas, these self-reinforcing steps are becoming an established pattern.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2013,</strong> China began a major dredging and land reclamation project in the Spratly Islands, a disputed chain of tiny atolls and coral reefs in the South China Sea.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing initially denied</strong> that it intended to militarize the archipelago.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By building artificial islands </strong>and equipping them with airfields, the Chinese government insisted, it meant to protect fragile reefs and enable prompt assistance to distressed ships.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China eventually acknowledged</strong> that the islands served a military purpose but maintained that it was a purely defensive one.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing stuck to this story</strong> even while installing a sizable force of fighter jets and cruise missiles in the Spratlys.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A similar pattern of public denial and obfuscation</strong> surrounded Beijng’s first—and to date, only—official overseas military base, built in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China had invested</strong> heavily in Djibouti since 2000, cultivating influence with its government by dangling tempting loans it could never repay.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But for years,</strong> the Chinese government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-defence-djibouti/china-declines-to-confirm-or-deny-djibouti-base-plan-idUSL3N0Y24JL20150511" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">disavowed</a> any interest in establishing military bases in foreign countries.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American officials</strong> were reportedly blindsided when Djibouti’s government announced, in 2016, that it had given China a <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-03/china-building-its-first-overseas-military-base-djibouti-right-next-key-us-one" rel="nofollow">ten-year lease </a>on land for a military base.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese base</strong> in Djibouti opened, with great fanfare, on August 1, 2017—the 90th anniversary of the founding of China’s People’s Liberation Army.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has said</strong> that the Djibouti base is merely a logistics facility to support humanitarian and counterpiracy missions.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But the Pentagon</strong> claims that lasers operated from the base have been used to blind U.S. military pilots, and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/05/10/satellite-images-show-chinese-navy-is-expanding-overseas-base/#7dea41236869" rel="nofollow">satellite images </a>of recent construction work show that the base is now large enough to accommodate warships and nuclear submarines.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8pOiuW?track_p_id=052ZTf4_cIQsFmUBZ3NVCqY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8pOiuW?track_p_id=9L1vJrA1Th52ZTf4_LCWxps" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Chinese Military Base in Cambodia?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8pOiuW?track_p_id=bOivxMmUPp5S52ZTf4_Cdju" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/a8hlq3LVMfCKFnplb21IH0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8pOiuW?track_p_id=3dx552ZTf4_hnYiH22NTbTt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Chinese Military Base in Cambodia?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sam Rainsy</strong> | Cambodia National Rescue Party</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cambodia could easily become the Achilles’ heel of the U.S. containment strategy in the region.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s track record </strong>gives the world reason for concern about its intentions in Cambodia.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s recent history</strong> of engagement with Phnom Penh suggests that Beijing now hopes to use the same militarization template in Cambodia as it has elsewhere.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just as it did in Djibouti,</strong> China spent years carefully cultivating Hun Sen’s government.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The combination</strong> of Chinese investment, loans, and political support, uncomplicated by any regard for human rights violations or cronyism, proved potent, and Hun Sen’s authoritarianism increased in step with his dependence on China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> Hun Sen often behaves more like an obedient Chinese regional governor than a prime minister.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A case in point for militarization:</strong> The Chinese airport and deep-water port project in the southwestern province of Koh Kong is pitched as an effort to boost Cambodia’s tourism industry.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The giant parcel of land</strong> that Hun Sen’s government handed over to China’s Tianjin Union Development Group for the project is more than three times the legal limit under Cambodian land law and constitutes 20 percent of Cambodia’s coastline.’ </li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it is widely believed</strong> to be designed to serve China’s armed forces.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In January 2019,</strong> Dan Coats, then the U.S. director of national intelligence, <a href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">warned</a> the Senate Intelligence Committee that Cambodia’s “slide toward autocracy” could enable China to establish a military presence in the country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a move</strong> would pose a grave threat to regional stability and to the political independence of many Southeast Asian nations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Basing armed forces in Cambodia</strong> would improve Beijing’s access to the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, better enabling China to harass U.S. vessels and threaten their access to U.S. allies in the region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Between its military presence</strong> in the Paracel and Spratly Islands and a base in Cambodia, China would effectively draw a triangular perimeter around mainland Southeast Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cambodia’s neighbors</strong> in Southeast Asia have thus far largely remained outside the direct sphere of Chinese influence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if the international community</strong> does not act now to halt China’s development of dual-use infrastructure that will soon allow Chinese armed forces to operate from Cambodia, the political independence of these nations will be in jeopardy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cambodia could easily become the Achilles’ heel</strong> of the U.S. containment strategy in the region.’ </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. Zoom Zoom Zoom</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Bptyq?track_p_id=eVxqJVKLLdO6SZg8DJ95y_B" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Bptyq?track_p_id=9Vzbmi4Fvs8DJ95y_4CVHVO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Zoom caught in China censorship crossfire as meetings foiled</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Bptyq?track_p_id=etnLfehPx3zm3q48DJ95y_c" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Zoom caught in China censorship crossfire as meetings foiled</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘‘That raises the issue of Zoom acting as a censor on behalf of the Chinese government.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blog.zoom.us/wordpress/2020/06/11/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>Zoom CEO Eric Yuan’s statement.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zoom says</strong> that it blocked several meetings and suspended the accounts of three activists at the request of the Chinese government.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The company</strong> released details Thursday saying that in May and early June, the Chinese government notified it about several online meetings planned to commemorate the crackdown on protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China bans</strong> public dissent.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zoom said</strong> the government told it such activities were illegal and demanded that the company terminate the meetings and the host accounts of the organizers, even though they did not live in China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zoom then suspended the accounts </strong>of U.S.-based activists Zhou Fengsuo and Wang Dan, and Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Lee Cheuk-Yan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has since reinstated</strong> all of their accounts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Going forward Zoom</strong> will not allow requests from the Chinese government to impact anyone outside of mainland China,” Zoom said in a blog post dated June 11.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The company</strong> said it is developing technology that would allow it to block participants based on geography.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That would mean</strong> it could stop people in mainland China from attending future meetings on Zoom that are deemed illegal by the Chinese government.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It did not give details</strong> on how it would determine which meetings would fit that description.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That raises the issue</strong> of Zoom acting as a censor on behalf of the Chinese government.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/87BQLw?track_p_id=3wKW94Fsx4_%4043zAI45tgew" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/irry7EUsnjxPAzOLxwPDM0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/87BQLw?track_p_id=4o4GI94Fsx4_wQ2spDd5LYa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Reaction from Congress</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/87BQLw?track_p_id=094Fsx4_aXi%40bu36cxVT6Ab" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2nEY9b7lQmx7WRFe0qColEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/87BQLw?track_p_id=4bIaU94Fsx4_EAaUWKgn2hH" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Reaction from Congress</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It is time for you to pick a side: American principles and free speech, or short-term global profits and censorship,”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/12/zoom-apologizes-for-punishing-users-at-chinas-request-314892" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Politico.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'Zoom drew intense scrutiny</strong> from lawmakers Thursday.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Democrats and Republicans </strong>on Capitol Hill questioned the rationale behind the company's decision and suggested its substantial operations in China allowed the U.S. company to be unduly influenced by Beijing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-12/zoom-says-china-asked-it-to-shut-down-pro-democracy-activists?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google&sref=UNCdSoO2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'U.S. Senator Josh Hawley,</strong> a Republican from Missouri, <a href="https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/Letter-Zoom-China-Censorship.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">wrote</a> Yuan Thursday, stating that Zoom was not the first U.S. company to censor users in order to do business in China, but in the end, the Chinese Communist Party would benefit more than the appmaker.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “It is time for you to pick a side:</strong> American principles and free speech, or short-term global profits and censorship,” he wrote.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/12/876351501/zoom-acknowledges-it-suspended-activists-accounts-at-china-s-request" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NPR.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'Thursday's acknowledgement</strong> also drew the attention of U.S. lawmakers, over Zoom's cooperation with Chinese authorities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Friday, a bipartisan group of senators,</strong> including Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Ed Markey, D-Mass., <a href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/6f83f64a-d54f-481a-ba38-ee1b3d01c933/5126A480790CA66300B2C9CEAD813139.20.06.12-letter-to-zoom-ceo-re-china.pdf" rel="nofollow">sent a letter </a>to the company's CEO Eric Yuan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/6f83f64a-d54f-481a-ba38-ee1b3d01c933/5126A480790CA66300B2C9CEAD813139.20.06.12-letter-to-zoom-ceo-re-china.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the letter,</strong></a> lawmakers asked which Chinese laws mandated that the company suspend the accounts of U.S.-based activists Zhou Fengsuo and Wang Dan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The senators also wanted to know</strong> why the company terminated the account of labor leader Lee Cheuk Yan who is based in Hong Kong. Lawmakers called the suspensions deeply concerning.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘"Your company has admitted</strong> that it did so at the request of the Chinese government to comply with the laws of the People's Republic of China (PRC), because some of the participants resided inside the PRC. ... Zoom's millions of daily users across the world who support and demand basic freedoms deserve answers," the senators wrote.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/502462-trio-of-gop-lawmakers-pens-zoom-to-clarify-china-ties-after-it-suspends" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Hill.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Oregon Reps. </strong><a href="https://thehill.com/people/greg-walden" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greg Walden</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> (R) and </strong><a href="https://thehill.com/people/cathy-rodgers" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Cathy McMorris Rodgers</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> (R),</strong> both of whom are on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, wrote to Zoom's founder and CEO Eric Yuan.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Zoom acknowledged</strong> that it closed the account and defended this action by stating such decision was made to 'comply with local law,'" <a href="https://republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020.06.11-Letter-to-Zoom-1.pdf" rel="nofollow">the pair wrote</a>. "This suggests Zoom, a U.S. company, closed the account at the direction of the Chinese government, which forbids free discussion of the 1989 Tiananmen pro-democracy movement."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They added,</strong> "Zoom’s recent actions and acquiescence to China raise serious concerns about your data practices, including how you protect information you collect on Americans and, importantly, who you grant access to such information."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OFK9A?track_p_id=61cjOFD99D2a6_dPlAkr2PX" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/mSKpZDA7T21BMMaFwefwGEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OFK9A?track_p_id=56ZcU299D2a6_%40Y4VC5PEnN" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Bill Bishop has 12 Questions for Zoom</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/HAQYbeVenRwyoP8028TQwDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OFK9A?track_p_id=099D2a6_1ORa2zzuCXZ5LKy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/GVI3agb-yhIsL5Fte4z61Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OFK9A?track_p_id=76qhlRHP99D2a6_apoPz1ei" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Zoom's China censorship</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sinocism</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bill Bishop</strong> | Sinocism</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Zoom should no longer get the benefit of the doubt over its China-related issues.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zoom has a large engineering group</strong> based in China, as it discloses in all of its public filings.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also has a history of </strong><a href="https://citizenlab.ca/2020/04/move-fast-roll-your-own-crypto-a-quick-look-at-the-confidentiality-of-zoom-meetings/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">issues </strong></a>related to China. Zoom’s recent growth has been astronomical and in trying to deal with the massive technical challenges of scaling up so fast it is easy to understand how mistakes could be made.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> Zoom is trying to keep on the right side of the PRC authorities so the service can work in China.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The censorship of these meetings</strong> does not look to be related to technical issues.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather,</strong> the company appears to be either proactively censoring to keep Beijing happy or responding to requests from the relevant PRC authorities.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zoom’s PR statement</strong> on this is far from adequate:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Just like any global company,</strong> we must comply with applicable laws in the jurisdictions where we operate. When a meeting is held across different countries, the participants within those countries are required to comply with their respective local laws. We aim to limit the actions we take to those necessary to comply with local law and continuously review and improve our process on these matters. We have reactivated the US-based account.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I have some questions</strong> I believe Zoom should answer about these incidents:’ [red titles separating the questions added by me]</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What PRC Laws Were Invoked?</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘What is the PRC law</strong> cited that has those meetings not in compliance?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘What is the PRC law</strong> cited to shut down the account of a US-based user?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘What is the PRC law</strong> cited to shut down the account of a Hong Kong-based user?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Which PRC Authority Made the Request?</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Did a request</strong> from PRC authorities trigger these moves?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘If requests</strong> from the PRC authorities triggered these moves, which PRC organization made the requests and to whom at Zoom were the requests made?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. ‘If requests</strong> from the PRC authorities triggered these moves, was Zoom CEO Eric Yuan involved in the decision to act on the requests?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How are PRC Security Services Involved?</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">7. ‘Is there an established process</strong> at Zoom to deal with requests from PRC security services? If so, what is it, and how many requests does Zoom get each month/quarter/year?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">8. ‘Do the Ministry of Public Security</strong> or any other PRC security organs have offices inside any Zoom China facilities, as they do with large PRC Internet firms?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Is Zoom Scanning for Keywords & Names?</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">9. ‘Does Zoom</strong> have any systems that scan keywords of meeting descriptions or participant names?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">10. ‘Has Zoom</strong> been given a list by PRC authorities of keywords and/or individuals to be flagged and/or filtered?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">11. ‘Does Zoom</strong> have any systems that scan the audio content of meetings in progress?' </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Editor’s Favorite!</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">12. ‘Why did it take an inquiry</strong> from a reporter for Zoom to reinstate the account of US-based Zhou Fengsuo?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'These are very sensitive questions</strong> and most companies operating in the PRC would not answer.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Zoom</strong> should no longer get the benefit of the doubt over its China-related issues.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given how many people,</strong> organizations, government bodies, and political campaigns now rely on its services the company must err on the side of transparency.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/10/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 10, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5PfvHc?track_p_id=aTtQ5GjFt3p74L8Sk_UWfF2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5PfvHc?track_p_id=bpWjuDK6DBhG74L8Sk_y%40Yc" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Pretty Poor Excuse for a Cold War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5PfvHc?track_p_id=arI1GBv6s3574L8Sk_j6HQR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4fU93yk3JTPjl8GKxIiDo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5PfvHc?track_p_id=eTlkbxqUO2BR5%40%4074L8Sk_L" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Pretty Poor Excuse for a Cold War</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The acrimony</strong> between China and the U.S. and its allies is accelerating, but the battle lines are fuzzy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With much talk and little action,</strong> it’s tough to tell where the confrontations will take place.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue,</strong> we’ll look at three areas where the confrontations could get hotter:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hong Kong</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Decoupling</strong> of manufacturing and supply chains, and</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s aggressive</strong> ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomats.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘The Shape of Asia’s New Cold War.’ </strong></span>Former South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea Yoon Young-kwan writes:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">· ‘China's decision to demolish the "one country, two systems" arrangement in Hong Kong appears to be a fait accompli, and in fact seems to have been preordained.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">· ‘Viewed in a broader context, the move represents a major salvo in a new cold war.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, a strategic consensus</strong> has emerged across Asia that the region will be the central “battlefield” in a new cold war that has already begun.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But is it</strong> a major salvo?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump</strong> has promised strong measures, but so far nothing.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And nothing of consequence from U.S. allies, </strong>with the EU especially reluctant to condemn China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Kowtowing to China.’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>HSBC and Standard Chartered banks have created an uproar of sorts by supporting China’s National Security Law for Hong Kong.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">During a CNBC interview,</strong> Richard McGregor answered this question:</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: ‘We've heard from some big companies</strong> like HSBC, Standard Chartered, Li Ka-shing, Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai properties, as well as Jardine Matheson - all of them coming out in support of the National Security Law.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Is this unusual</strong> that we're seeing this take place by these companies?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard: ‘Well, it's not unusual in Chinese terms</strong>; it is pretty unusual for Hong Kong; and it's pretty interesting.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's basically Beijing</strong> saying you're either with us or you're against us.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not only</strong> do you have to say that in private, we want to see a public statement.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'So it's very difficult to these companies,</strong> which have huge business interests in Hong Kong and of course in China itself, to stay on the sidelines because they going to be punished if they do.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In response </strong>to HSBC’s bending to China’s will, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States stands</strong> with our allies and partners against the Chinese Communist Party’s coercive bullying tactics.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP’s browbeating of HSBC,</strong> in particular, should serve as a cautionary tale.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just last week,</strong> the bank’s Asia-Pacific CEO, Peter Wong, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, signed a petition supporting Beijing’s disastrous decision to destroy Hong Kong’s autonomy and to break commitments made in an U.N.-registered treaty.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More talk,</strong> no action.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said, the UK, home to the two banks and opponent of the new Hong Kong law,</strong> may make some noise and exert some pressure, but in the end, HSBC and StanChart are going to protect their businesses.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This could </strong>become interesting.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘Can Hong Kong remain a global financial center?’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>The one area where an actual confrontation could occur would be President Trump’s revoking Hong Kong’s ‘Special Status’ and, more potently, limiting access to U.S. dollar channels through Hong Kong. But even with the impact of the new National Security Law and U.S. action:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most likely scenario</strong> is that Hong Kong’s institutions face gradual decay and that it drifts away from being a globalised financial centre towards one that is more mainland Chinese,’ writes The Economist.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So if Hong Kong</strong> is the center of a new Asian Cold War, it’s a pretty slow-moving Cold War.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Decoupling?’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>A while ago, during the trade war, President Trump ordered U.S. companies to leave China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While well beyond his power,</strong> it seemed to reveal his intentions – and his limitations.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As Scott Kennedy</strong> of CSIS points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are some signs</strong> that because of the trade war and other risks, some American companies are diversifying their supply chains.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> it appears that the vast majority of companies from the United States – and the broader West – are not heeding this call.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> there is a growing gap – or decoupling – between Trump administration aims and Western business behavior.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Western companies</strong> are not leaving China because they are primarily there for the China market – Not because China is a cog in their long global supply chains.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And says Deborah Elms </strong>of the Asian Trade Centre :</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The rhetoric meets the reality,</strong> which is that many firms have supply chains set up the way they do for very sensible reasons.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why would a firm</strong> “say to their staff and their shareholders we have opted for political reasons to change the way that we do things.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The numbers have to make sense,”</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If decoupling</strong> of manufacturing and supply chains is a salvo in the new Cold War, it is not a very effective one.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘China’s “Wolf Warrior” Diplomats.’</strong></span> If all else fails, bully.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomats</strong> ‘are using aggression as a signal that China has grown strong, and is tired of waiting for the world to show respect and deference,’ writes The Economist.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To diplomatic and national-security hawks in Beijing, </strong>if some countries have to feel pain in order to understand that China’s rise is inevitable and that resistance is futile (and that no help is coming from an America consumed with its own problems), then that pain is itself a useful education.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But as Minxin Pei</strong> of Claremont College points out:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Far from burnishing</strong> China’s international image and placating those who blame the country for the pandemic, their actions have undermined China’s credibility and alienated the countries it should be wooing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So even Wolf Warrior</strong> bullying is failing to provoke a real confrontation in what may be (but I don’t think is) a new Cold War.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What we are seeing</strong> is a lot of posturing.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Short of China’s taking a concrete step,</strong> such as invading Taiwan, it’s hard to see how this conflict goes beyond words and scattered actions for a long time to come.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A pretty poor excuse </strong>for a Cold War.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues in the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. Asia: Central Cold War 'Battlefield' </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5OT7yq?track_p_id=05oqv0A_LiRaTcg1elNWqQ3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5OT7yq?track_p_id=8XqNVtFpC5oqv0A_OpZzrm3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Shape of Asia’s New Cold War </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/DlRIlLxygKyGzaEqcOnx1zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5OT7yq?track_p_id=3Vpb5oqv0A_zMV1ZH52lasW" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/8QAQwHxlhjSBbWl2aNl9rki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5OT7yq?track_p_id=1n5oqv0A_W6kOQPBXq4%40hpd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Shape of Asia’s New Cold War </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yoon Young-kwan</strong> | former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's decision to demolish the "one country, two systems" arrangement in Hong Kong appears to be a fait accompli, and in fact seems to have been preordained. Viewed in a broader context, the move represents a major salvo in a new cold war.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In retrospect,</strong> the decision by the Communist Party of China (CPC) to impose a new <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/china-hong-kong-security-law-liberal-democracy-by-chris-patten-2020-05?barrier=accesspaylog" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">security law</a> on Hong Kong seems to have been preordained.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Historically,</strong> rising powers always try to expand their spheres of geopolitical influence once they pass a certain stage of economic development.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was only a matter of time</strong> before China would do away with the “one country, two systems” arrangement and impose its laws and norms on Hong Kong – a territory that it considers integral to the motherland.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From China’s perspective,</strong> America’s decadence and decline over the last 12 years – from the 2008 financial crisis to Donald Trump’s presidency – have given it an open invitation to accelerate its strategic expansion.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Though Chinese President Xi Jinping</strong> has long <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/pacific-ocean-big-enough-for-china-us-xi/news-story/d5e8555c014c46f2a637aac826ed05a0" rel="nofollow">assured the</a> world that the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both China and the United States, his actual policies have often suggested otherwise.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition</strong> to militarizing the South China Sea, his signature Belt and Road Initiative aims to make China the nodal point for the entire Eurasian landmass.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now that Xi</strong> has decided to accept nothing less than Hong Kong’s full subservience, he will likely also challenge the <em style="font-style: italic">status quo</em> with respect to Taiwan, trusting that an isolationist, distracted Trump administration will do nothing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the US</strong> has taken note of Xi’s aggressiveness.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After two decades</strong> of hoping that China would become a responsible stakeholder in the world economy, US policymakers have finally decided that this will not happen.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since the CPC’s March 2018 decision</strong> to abolish presidential term limits, the US foreign-policy establishment has abandoned any expectation of normative convergence between Xi’s China and the West.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,</strong> with Trump’s trade war having already inaugurated a new, increasingly antagonistic phase in Sino-American relations, the COVID-19 pandemic has lent additional momentum to a more confrontational US policy toward China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, a strategic consensus</strong> has emerged across Asia that the region will be the central “battlefield” in a new cold war that has already begun.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Kowtowing to China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/86wKjA?track_p_id=8u5OefWfz5LgML0_zP%40%40TeM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/GsI4H4IAu0R9DEiBPcItgUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/86wKjA?track_p_id=cGVa3uV1MyWs45LgML0_gIM" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘It's basically Beijing saying you're either with us or you're against us.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/04d6BWXloFYEGRwInih4zzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/86wKjA?track_p_id=86eTRUl4I5LgML0_DwL6PT3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/qxHmGmV9fMtiqPqYc9oIUUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/86wKjA?track_p_id=bp1CDglNi1DP5LgML0_Y6Jb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘It's basically Beijing saying you're either with us or you're against us.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CNBC</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard McGregor </strong>| Lowy Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So we're going to get a lot more “one country” and much less “two systems.” ’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlqnfjkcU6k" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>his 3m interview.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard McGregor:</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's made it pretty clear </strong>for several months now that they've changed course Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘You might argue</strong> that China was reasonably restrained last year after the large marches, but not anymore.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've seen a number of initiatives:</strong> the Anthem bill, the National Security Bill overriding Hong Kong’s legislature.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So we're going</strong> to get a lot more “one country” and much less “two systems.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that's going</strong> to be very tough in Hong Kong for China's critics and opponents.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've heard from some big companies</strong> like HSBC, Standard Chartered, Li Ka-shing, Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai properties, as well as Jardine Matheson - all of them coming out in support of the National Security Law.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Maybe at the prompting</strong> of a former Hong Kong Chief Executive, C.Y. Leung, calling on these big companies to state their political stance.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Is this unusual</strong> that we're seeing this take place by these companies?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Well, it's not unusual in Chinese terms</strong>; it is pretty unusual for Hong Kong; and it's pretty interesting.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's basically Beijing</strong> saying you're either with us or you're against us.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not only</strong> do you have to say that in private, we want to see a public statement.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'So it's very difficult to these companies,</strong> which have huge business interests in Hong Kong and of course in China itself, to stay on the sidelines because they going to be punished if they do.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PhHCi?track_p_id=6Pd63%40L74z0YQ_CNTu5BS2L" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/W9uHoPsDkHBHGFX0VtAecUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PhHCi?track_p_id=2oz74z0YQ_3PDcv3AuAXPG4" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Mike Pompeo on the CCP’s browbeating of HSBC</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ag-xB7C2aSIdBqP7kxb3cjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">HSBC CEO Peter Wong signing the petition</p></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PhHCi?track_p_id=eqR6yQbCZMgIs2J74z0YQ_n" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/W9uHoPsDkHBHGFX0VtAecUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6PhHCi?track_p_id=9ihFOcwkVW74z0YQ_JXZ362" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">On China’s Attempted Coercion of the United Kingdom</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">U.S. Department of State</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Pompeo </strong>| U.S. Secretary of State</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP’s browbeating of HSBC, in particular, should serve as a cautionary tale.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States stands</strong> with our allies and partners against the Chinese Communist Party’s coercive bullying tactics.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP’s browbeating of HSBC,</strong> in particular, should serve as a cautionary tale.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just last week,</strong> the bank’s Asia-Pacific CEO, Peter Wong, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, signed a petition supporting Beijing’s disastrous decision to destroy Hong Kong’s autonomy and to break commitments made in an U.N.-registered treaty.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That show of fealty</strong> seems to have earned HSBC little respect in Beijing, which continues to use the bank’s business in China as political leverage against London.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Can Hong Kong remain a global financial centre? </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fsPcO?track_p_id=dPUUlvbr3FHhUW9LT4hC_Qh" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fsPcO?track_p_id=dAXfxiyVgynDxK9LT4hC_a2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Can Hong Kong remain a global financial centre? </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/-SzlcGab8c9UU1FZB1vFIzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/iO3TnALPMaq0Y4Kuhu_Ubzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fsPcO?track_p_id=bROXQhfQsI369LT4hC_hRCn" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/o4d6IZrC9c9VBUANbuTI0Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fsPcO?track_p_id=9ZHG1TSyvR9LT4hC_ps5%40BP" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Can Hong Kong remain a global financial centre? </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet it is complacent to suppose that Hong Kong can be immune to worsening Sino-American relations and China’s rising authoritarianism.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This risk is growing for Hong Kong’s position</strong> as a financial centre, as tensions build over China’s interference in its government and legal system, which, under the formulation of “one country, two systems”, are supposed to be largely autonomous until at least 2047.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those at the pinnacle</strong> of Hong Kong’s financial world say that its role in the global system is not threatened by social unrest and geopolitics.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s security law,</strong> though clumsy, will, they hope, dampen the protests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both hsbcand Standard Chartered</strong> have voiced support for it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to five sources,</strong> there is no sign of international bank depositors pulling money from Hong Kong in the past two weeks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A wave of Chinese firms,</strong> such as jd.com, are seeking listings in Hong Kong, drawing in capital.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet it is complacent</strong> to suppose that Hong Kong can be immune to worsening Sino-American relations and China’s rising authoritarianism.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the territory’s government</strong> has become a proxy of the Communist Party, it seems rational to worry about how long its independent institutions, including the courts and the central bank, can remain unaffected.’ </li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘hkex, the thriving stock exchange,</strong> has long had government appointees on its board.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The decline of free speech</strong> in Hong Kong may impede its efficiency as a financial market. Could an analyst’s note inviting speculation against China’s exchange rate, or identifying fraud at its banks, be designated as sedition?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most likely scenario</strong> is that Hong Kong’s institutions face gradual decay and that it drifts away from being a globalised financial centre towards one that is more mainland Chinese.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China would be left</strong> with more control over a less effective capital market, raising the cost of capital for its firms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this base-case scenario</strong> there could eventually be a Hong Kong discount, instead of a halo.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Firms doing business with China</strong> would still have nowhere better to be, but other activity could easily shift somewhere less controversial.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This slice of mobile business</strong> could be material—almost two-thirds of currency trades involve neither the Hong Kong dollar nor the yuan; and over half of fund assets are invested in Europe, America and other parts of Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If this global business shrinks,</strong> Hong Kong would still have China-related business to compensate.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There will be</strong> many more public offerings.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And as Chinese pension funds</strong> grow they may build up their efforts to invest globally: today only a fifth or so of asset managers in Hong Kong are controlled by mainland owners.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The overall effect</strong> would be tolerable for Hong Kong and only modestly bad for China, which would lose some economic benefits from Hong Kong becoming less cosmopolitan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the back of some minds</strong> is the nuclear scenario, in which Hong Kong’s role as a financial hub is destabilised.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The unlikely</strong> but not impossible worst case is that a miscalculation destabilises some of the $10trn edifice of cross-border financial claims that sits in Hong Kong, causing a shock that ripples across China and Asia.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By accident or design</strong> the American authorities could clog or cut the payments arteries by imposing sanctions, additional administrative requirements or penalties on individuals, firms or banks operating in Hong Kong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Any of these measures</strong> could seed concern that money parked in Hong Kong is no longer perfectly interchangeable with that in the West.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No one at the top</strong> of Hong Kong’s financial establishment believes that this bad scenario is likely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But everyone thinks</strong> that moves by America or China to disrupt its role as a global dollar centre would be dangerous.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Decoupling?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fNc8m?track_p_id=axQMSKCNzkQ5TLntm_vZaHL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fNc8m?track_p_id=05TLntm_PaTZp1pvN3ZHDom" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Decoupling Between Washington and Western Industry </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Nifomi-CM3M6XtMNBQdv8zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fNc8m?track_p_id=1Y5TLntm_hmOKJMJ1zAGArE" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/5HYfNydYk_gm0dsj2t-ZXEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6fNc8m?track_p_id=7int3oDI5TLntm_iwePBU4w" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Decoupling Between Washington and Western Industry </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic & International Studies</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Scott Kennedy </strong>| Center for Strategic & International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Western companies are not leaving China because they are primarily there for the China market.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Although the Trump administration</strong> does not openly embrace the idea of decoupling, its various policies –‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘restrictions</strong> on high-tech exports to China, expanded investment limits, and efforts to have American companies move production out of China and on-shore manufacturing in the United States –‘</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘– effectively</strong> add up to a decoupling strategy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are some signs</strong> that because of the trade war and other risks, some American companies are diversifying their supply chains.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> it appears that the vast majority of companies from the United States – and the broader West – are not heeding this call.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> there is a growing gap – or decoupling – between Trump administration aims and Western business behavior.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Western companies</strong> are not leaving China because they are primarily there for the China market –‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not because China</strong> is a cog in their long global supply chains.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Supply chains</strong> are more adjustable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That process</strong> has long ago commenced, driven not only by diplomatic tensions, but also by rising Chinese labor costs, the emergence of other production locations (such as Vietnam and India), the improvement of 3D printing and other automated manufacturing processes, climate change, and other factors.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps the central question</strong> over the next 2-3 years will be about this tug of war:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can Washington use carrots or sticks</strong> to move more companies out of China, or’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can companies convince Washington</strong> (and other capitals) that the commercial benefits to remaining engaged cannot be replaced and that there is a way to enhance the mechanisms needed to effectively mitigate the various commercial, public health and national security risks that come with extensive connectivity with China?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gW0f2?track_p_id=ePimMH5ayKPFOay6XG2f8_z" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gW0f2?track_p_id=dqSVVRlbz2Wofn6XG2f8_gv" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why the U.S. Can’t Easily Break China’s Grip on Supply Chains </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/f84mzfdH0cRqUIzxiM1CFDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gW0f2?track_p_id=4W4py6XG2f8_WusnpEL3ykf" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/0Ms0qIX0_jeKeoC48oQv1ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gW0f2?track_p_id=2Ut6XG2f8_4frZS3iOJ2dOa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why the U.S. Can’t Easily Break China’s Grip on Supply Chains </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The rhetoric meets the reality, which is that many firms have supply chains set up the way they do for very sensible reasons.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the world trade network</strong> mostly held up well amid rolling lockdowns as Covid-19 spread, the economic cost fueled calls among politicians for greater self-sufficiency and alternatives to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But any broader effort</strong> to restructure supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region is little more than wishful thinking so far.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The rhetoric meets the reality,</strong> which is that many firms have supply chains set up the way they do for very sensible reasons,” said Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “China remains unmatched</strong> as a manufacturing site given its numbers of skilled workers, deep supplier networks and the government’s credible public support for manufacturers and provision of reliable infrastructure,” says Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Dan Wang.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Coming out of Covid,</strong> it’s going to be even harder to move supply chains because your cash flow is low, your staff are working from home or coming slowly back into the office, and the business climate has shifted,’ says Elms.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It won’t be simple</strong> to dismantle an entrenched system when many companies are struggling to survive.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More likely</strong> is that the virus will accelerate a change that was already driven by market forces as rising wages and costs in China over the past decade caused an exodus of lower-value manufacturing, much of it to Southeast Asia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the pandemic</strong> will give that another push, “shifts away from China will be slow as that country still boasts an annual manufacturing output that is so large that even a group of countries would struggle to absorb a fraction of it.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Many companies</strong> have already begun adopting a ‘China plus one’ manufacturing hub strategy since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, with Vietnam having been a clear beneficiary,” said Anwita Basu, head of Asia country risk research at Fitch Solutions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the end,</strong> the biggest force diluting China’s position in the global supply chain will likely be the long, slow evolution of global trade, as companies see opportunities that arise from new markets, new technologies and changing patterns of wealth.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why would a firm</strong> “say to their staff and their shareholders we have opted for political reasons to change the way that we do things,” said Elms, whose organization helps governments formulate trade policy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The numbers have to make sense,” </strong>she said. “The structure that you have is based on millions of individual company decisions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s not so easy</strong> to wave a wand and say: Make it so!” '</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5nNQe0?track_p_id=5YWwJC4rZmM2_vAbDxds3mb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/wZnz9oWty9SpfU-ZaW25yki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5nNQe0?track_p_id=3zmr4rZmM2_4vO65pmssUx5" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Breaking the China Supply Chain'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/TkL66cc8xpbcEtIHzRZMqDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5nNQe0?track_p_id=bz36gf2m3fPa4rZmM2_z1Bx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Breaking the China Supply Chain'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Henry Jackson Society</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A country is “strategically dependent” on China for a good when: More than 50% of imports of that good are from China; it is a net importer of those goods; and China controls more than 30% of the global market for that good.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">From </strong><a href="https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Breaking-the-China-Chain.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Breaking the China Supply Chain: How the ‘Five Eyes’ can Decouple from Strategic Dependency,’</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>published by the Henry Jackson Society, a UK think tank.’</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United Kingdom (UK), United States (US), Australia, Canada and New Zealand</strong> – the five powers commonly known in intelligence circles as the “Five Eyes” – are dependent on China for 831 separate categories of imports; 260 of which are service elements of critical national infrastructure (CNI),’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These categories</strong> of goods include consumer electronics like laptops and phones, as well as pharmaceutical ingredients necessary for antibiotics, painkillers, and anti-viral medicines.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A country is “strategically dependent”</strong> on China for a good when:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More than 50%</strong> of imports of that good are from China,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a net importer</strong> of those goods, and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China controls</strong> more than 30% of the global market for that good.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. The 'Wolf Warriors'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8mAIK0?track_p_id=dgR5n1dzDi%40LPX4yFLuY_Q2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8mAIK0?track_p_id=2Dh4yFLuY_3ZqVn3OxyxBaX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy gamble </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1dJ_1oJKnk_kvKMcw7gyyzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8mAIK0?track_p_id=6exHScv4yFLuY_VtJcOTo1Q" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/DNFA-pMXq_0zlXW2vlshfEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8mAIK0?track_p_id=54OAX54yFLuY_WWF5cRa4Tw" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chaguan - China’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy gamble </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If some countries have to feel pain in order to understand that China’s rise is inevitable and that resistance is futile, then that pain is itself a useful education.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The highest-grossing film</strong> in Chinese history is “Wolf Warrior 2”. This action flick is both preposterous and oddly compelling, offering clues about the sort of China that modern-day patriots yearn to see on screen.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That China</strong> is formidable.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The China</strong> of the film is self-confident.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The China</strong> of the movie is respected.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At one point the film’s hero,</strong> Leng Feng, a retired Chinese commando, uses a home-made crossbow to take on African mercenaries armed with tanks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then he kills their American boss,</strong> a murderous racist who—moments before Leng punches him to death—sneers:’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “People like you</strong> will always be inferior to people like me.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In an era of crises,</strong> from a global pandemic to an ever-sharper contest between China and America, Chinese envoys and state media have gone on the attack.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ambassadors</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">and official mouthpieces</strong> have threatened and insulted governments and elected politicians on every continent.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some have promoted</strong> conspiracy theories that America’s army spread covid-19.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In China,</strong> this trend is being dubbed “Wolf Warrior diplomacy” by fans and critics alike.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Actually,</strong> that is an insult to wolf warriors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some members</strong> of China’s foreign-policy establishment express alarm over this assertiveness, calling it a mistake born of inexperience.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is letting</strong> foreign ministry hotheads off too easily.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A well-traveled bunch,</strong> China’s quarrel-picking diplomats know how they sound.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are using aggression </strong>as a signal that China has grown strong, and is tired of waiting for the world to show respect and deference.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To diplomatic and national-security hawks in Beijing, </strong>if some countries have to feel pain in order to understand that China’s rise is inevitable and that resistance is futile (and that no help is coming from an America consumed with its own problems), then that pain is itself a useful education.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Z0zdQ?track_p_id=3W3Z6hkvQU_n2ntX4brKZNK" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Z0zdQ?track_p_id=8zN5drnc66hkvQU_YlM2KZS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chinese Diplomats Behaving Badly </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/l9NXZO2lTz2B-UPMVoNCdjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Z0zdQ?track_p_id=b1gXIwGGHt6o6hkvQU_cn5Y" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Z0zdQ?track_p_id=4vVTx6hkvQU_6V4YAgzWpBs" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Chinese Diplomats Behaving Badly </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei</strong> | Claremont College</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If aggressively pushing the Communist Party of China’s preferred narrative is a matter of professional survival, diplomats will do it, even if they recognize that it is counterproductive (as many probably do).’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese diplomats</strong> have long had a reputation as well-trained, colorless, and cautious professionals who pursue their missions doggedly without attracting much unfavorable attention.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a new crop of younger diplomats</strong> are ditching established diplomatic norms in favor of aggressively promoting China’s self-serving COVID-19 narrative.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is called “wolf warrior” diplomacy</strong> – and it is backfiring.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Far from burnishing</strong> China’s international image and placating those who blame the country for the pandemic, their actions have undermined China’s credibility and alienated the countries it should be wooing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why change tack</strong> in the first place?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One reason</strong> is China’s current combination of historical insecurity, rooted in its so-called century of humiliation, and heady arrogance, fueled by its immense economic clout and geopolitical influence.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So keen are China’s leaders</strong> to gain the respect they feel their country deserves that they have become highly sensitive to criticism and quick to threaten economic coercion when countries dare to defy them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another reason</strong> is the current regime’s emphasis on political loyalty.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under President Xi Jinping’s</strong> highly centralized leadership, Chinese diplomats are evaluated not on how well they perform their professional duties, but on how faithfully and vocally they toe the party line.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If aggressively pushing</strong> the Communist Party of China’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8d7842fa-8082-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">preferred narrative</a> is a matter of professional survival, diplomats will do it, even if they recognize that it is counterproductive (as many probably do).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They certainly</strong> will not try to persuade their political masters to change course.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whereas diplomats</strong> risk paying a heavy price for conscientious dissent, they seem to suffer no consequences – from criticisms in official media to demotions or dismissals – for destructive loyalty.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When pushing</strong> the CPC-approved narrative produces negative results, it is, in Party parlance, an issue of tactics, not the “political line.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Punishing loyal diplomats</strong> for “tactical errors” would make them more reluctant to do the CPC’s dirty work in the future.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By removing any incentive</strong> for diplomats to temper their approach and offering a convenient excuse for setbacks, this logic entrenches <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-pandemic-chinese-propaganda-by-minxin-pei-2020-03" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">bad policy</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It does not help</strong> that China lacks a free press and political opposition to highlight the failures of the wolf-warrior approach.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike Western diplomats,</strong> those in China do not have to fear public ridicule or criticism.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All that matters</strong> is what their bosses say – and their bosses want wolf warriors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/6/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 6, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8lZhke?track_p_id=bkQbOznzw%40y18vNgDe_cvBG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8lZhke?track_p_id=7dVprxBL8vNgDe_dX5IUC3Y" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘From Tiananmen Square to Lafayette Square’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8lZhke?track_p_id=2wY8vNgDe_O%40p3zrrU4UVvi" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8lZhke?track_p_id=ed%40XoEnQDfGP2LD8vNgDe_P" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘From Tiananmen Square to Lafayette Square’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">June 4th</strong> was the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Of the many comments </strong>made immediately after the Massacre in 1989 one especially stuck me.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To clear the square,</strong> Deng sent in the People’s Liberation Army.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Before that</strong> Chinese citizens viewed the PLA as the liberators and protectors of China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">After that, </strong>mistrust and fear. How could Chinese soldiers open fire on unarmed Chinese protesters?</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The week of June 4th</strong> also saw President Trump threaten to send in U.S. troops – not at the request of local authorities but on his own authority – to put down the rioting and looting in many American cities.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fortunately for all,</strong> especially perhaps our troops, he backed down following great criticism.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Had he not,</strong> relations between American citizens and the U.S. military would have changed just as they did in China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And we would be</strong> another step closer to losing our conception of what America is and who we are.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is what’s in today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. 'From Tiananmen Square to Lafayette Square.’ </strong></span>June 4 was the anniversary of the Tiananmen Massacre. But:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This week, global human rights activists </strong>are not focused on Tiananmen Square, but on Lafayette Square, outside the White House.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Police and military officers</strong> on Monday used riot shields, batons and gas to clear a peaceful crowd of protesters in front of the White House</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump </strong>then ‘left the podium and walked to the fire-damaged St. John’s Episcopal Church, where he held up a Bible.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This chaotic photo opportunity</strong> drew outrage domestically.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, footage</strong> of the mayhem went internationally viral:’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Probably not surprising </strong>from the person who in 1990 said this about the Chinese government’s unleashing the PLA on its own citizens in Tiananmen:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“When the students</strong> poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Then they were vicious,</strong> they were horrible, but they put it down with strength.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“That shows you</strong> the power of strength.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What is there to say?</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'Let’s Make America Too Prosperous to Hate.'</strong></span> Peter Navarro, President Trump’s Director, Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, has a solution to America’s problems with race.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Atlanta prided</strong> itself in the 1960s on being “the city too busy to hate.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 2020s,</strong> America must become the country too prosperous to hate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> spent its first three years fulfilling that vision.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Peace and racial harmony</strong> through prosperity seemed within reach.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then the Chinese Communist Party</strong> brought the economy to a screeching pandemic halt.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is perhaps</strong> most stunning about this biological Chernobyl is the passivity with which many Americans have responded.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than an entire nation</strong> rising up in loud protest against China’s actions—or its snuffing out of freedom in Hong Kong—arsonists, looters, anarchists and hate merchants are savaging cities across America under the false flag of social justice.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Again, what is there to say?</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 'Why Inflation Should Not Be A Problem.’</strong></span> All through the trade war I wondered why tariffs on China didn’t create inflation in the U.S.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Barkin,</strong> president of the Richmond Fed gave me the answer in the second part of our interview.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American businesses</strong> have changed how they think about pricing, and how they think about negotiating, and American consumers have changed in terms of their price elasticity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The rise in power of purchasing departments,</strong> and the rise in power of consumer price transparency create quite a formidable wall against runaway inflation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you compare today </strong>to 20 years ago, prices are a lot more transparent than they used to be.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘You try to increase 5% to a consumer,</strong> and they're going to come up with another option. That's what the internet has enabled.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Big low-price retailers</strong> have purchasing departments whose job is zero cost increases.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And so if the supplier</strong> comes in at zero, they go, "Thank you very much.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the supplier</strong> comes in at plus 2%, they say, "No, why don't you make it zero?" ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the supplier comes</strong> in at plus 7%, the purchasing manager says, "I'd hate to bid this out, but if you force me to bid it out, I'll bid it out." ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘How Fragile are Asian Supply Chains Really?’</strong></span> MacroPolo gives the answer using Apple as an indicator.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If East Asian supply chains </strong>were in shambles, then consumers would feel it quickly. So far, consumers haven’t.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Factors could change</strong> more drastically post-Covid, but the resilience of the East Asian supply chain has been a bright spot amid abysmal economic news.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To borrow Robert Solow’s famous quip:</strong> you can see supply chain decoupling “everywhere except in the numbers.” At least not yet.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. 'The pandemic is hurting China’s Belt and Road Initiative.’</strong></span> Given the global economic crisis created by the pandemic, it’s no surprise that the BRI has its brakes on.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the issue</strong> goes beyond China’s tightening its belt.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The emerging markets</strong> that have racked up BRI debt are in danger – insured really - of defaulting.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That leaves</strong> China with decisions.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Should it reduce or forgive the debt,</strong> restructure, or foreclose and take assets?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If China</strong> goes all ‘Wolf Warrior,’ its relations with the very countries it is courting will sour for decades.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If it’s more conciliatory, </strong>China will make friends but take big losses.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Either way,</strong> look for the BRI to be on slowdown or hold.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And with that a setback</strong> for Xi Jinping’s foreign policy objectives.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> <strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. ‘China's “New Infrastructure” Plan.’</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">Beijing wants to see big investments</strong> in the building blocks of China’s digital future – everything from</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">information infrastructure</strong> such as 5G telecommunication networks, big data and intelligent computing centers, AI and the industrial internet to integration infrastructure that integrates next-generation technologies across traditional industries, including smart transportation and smart energy infrastructure like EV charging stations – “new infrastructure.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Analysts expect</strong> the investments associated with ‘new infrastructure’ projects to total 10 trillion to 5 trillion yuan for the six-year period until 2025.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China grouped</strong> its ambitious plans to rule in tech under the rubric ‘Made in China 2025.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But after this spooked</strong> Western governments and invited efforts to slow its progress, China dropped the name but not the ambition.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So it’s difficult to situate</strong> the ‘New Infrastructure’ plan within the overall, now unnamed, plan.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wherever it fits, </strong>this is certainly worth keeping an eye on.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">7. ‘The Chinese View of EU-China Relations.’</strong></span> My thanks to Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, for alerting me to this great report from the Insitut Montaigne in Paris.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One would never guess</strong> it from the storms that have brewed publicly in Europe about China – but China’s perception of EU-China relations remains largely positive among Chinese foreign policy elites, for good and (from our perspective) less good reasons.’</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues in the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. ‘From Tiananmen Square to Lafayette Square’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6TXwae?track_p_id=7UlHOAby6f8jle_Qy3rUt3U" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6TXwae?track_p_id=cms%40zU44Y%40ijg6f8jle_Zjx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'From Tiananmen Square to Lafayette Square'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1cZkZoZzYo7lPO5qkHvZwDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6TXwae?track_p_id=ah6YcVdcZgY6f8jle_Eye4y" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/5Poha6eLtCNso3TNXzMuKki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6TXwae?track_p_id=6z6omxU6f8jle_l3%40r%40DtUJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'From Tiananmen Square to Lafayette Square'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Adam Taylor</strong> | Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This week, global human rights activists are not focused on Tiananmen Square, but on Lafayette Square, outside the White House.’ </strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In 1990,</strong> ‘a 43-year-old New York City real estate mogul gave his thoughts on the massacre to the magazine Playboy.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“When the students</strong> poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it,” <a href="https://www.playboy.com/read/playboy-interview-donald-trump-1990" rel="nofollow">Donald Trump said</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Then they were vicious,</strong> they were horrible, but they put it down with strength.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“That shows you</strong> the power of strength.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Our country</strong> is right now perceived as weak … as being spit on by the rest of the world,” the future president continued.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump later tried</strong> to rewrite history.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">“I don’t say they were right. They weren’t right,” he said in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/01/trump-suggests-kind-vicious-response-protesters-he-once-hailed-china/?itid=lk_inline_manual_12" rel="nofollow">run-up to the 2016 election when</a> asked about his Playboy interview.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> __________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"> </p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This week, global human rights activists </strong>are not focused on Tiananmen Square, but on Lafayette Square, outside the White House.’<strong style="font-weight: bold"> </strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After some demonstrations</strong> in Washington turned violent over the weekend, Trump moved to “put it down with strength.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Police and military officers</strong> on Monday used riot shields, batons and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/trump-demands-journalists-correct-stories-on-the-use-of-tear-gas-according-to-the-cdc-it-was-tear-gas/2020/06/02/bf68726c-a544-11ea-bb20-ebf0921f3bbd_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_24" rel="nofollow">gas </a>to clear a peaceful crowd of protesters in front of the White House just minutes before Trump was due to speak in the Rose Garden.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Only briefly mentioning Floyd,</strong> Trump threatened to deploy the military to American cities and warned that violent protesters would be “prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He left the podium</strong> and walked to the fire-damaged St. John’s Episcopal Church, where he held up a Bible.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This chaotic photo opportunity</strong> drew outrage domestically. And, footage of the mayhem went internationally viral:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Allies such as Australia</strong> have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/business/media/australia-reporters-police-protest.html" rel="nofollow">demanded explanations for</a> the violence against their citizens, while U.S. diplomats abroad have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/in-unusual-move-us-embassies-in-africa-speak-up-on-floyd/2020/05/30/95dc8cec-a258-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_28" rel="nofollow">struggled to</a> explain the situation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong pro-democracy activists,</strong> in the midst of their own problems, found themselves voicing sympathy for the protesters rather than the government that supports them.’<ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “State violence</strong> feels all too familiar,” Jeffrey Ngo, a Hong Kong activist now based in D.C., <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffreychngo/status/1267695312828870658" rel="nofollow">tweeted</a>.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Among Beijing’s “wolf warrior” diplomats</strong> and their allies, the crackdown was further evidence of U.S. hypocrisy.’<ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Why does the U.S. side</strong> criticize Hong Kong police’s civilized and restrained law enforcement while it threatens to fire guns at domestic protesters and even deploy the U.S. National Guard to suppress them?” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Beijing-Diary-Trump-gives-China-a-PR-win-on-Tiananmen-eve" rel="nofollow">Zhao Lijian said</a>.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many of Trump’s supporters </strong>are also vocal critics of Beijing.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They argue</strong> that there is no contradiction, noting that the crackdown in Lafayette Square on Monday left no one dead and that the Trump administration’s missteps pale in comparison to Beijing’s acts of brutality.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> is held to a different standard than China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Trump’s domestic rhetoric,</strong> as well as the <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/10/02/trump-impeachment-civilian-casualties-war/" rel="nofollow">disregard for civilian life in U.S. military operations under</a> his watch, have long made it hard for allies to stomach his foreign disputes with China, Iran, Venezuela and others and his proclamations about U.S. strength.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even so,</strong> this week has proven an obvious surrender of soft power for the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has tried for decades</strong> to make the world stop talking about Tiananmen Square:’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This year Trump</strong> may have done more to help than Beijing’s censors ever could.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Blame China - Again</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GQGsC?track_p_id=3bm65UtpAE_6KN5qia5sh2Q" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GQGsC?track_p_id=e3NBiIm3YiSD2vu5UtpAE_r" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Let’s Make America Too Prosperous to Hate'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/G-3ppjTupC9r5FalfSjkADl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GQGsC?track_p_id=bF1Yq3juLSoo5UtpAE_orxw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/57fW6YKKnvqWG3wLuwNGQUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GQGsC?track_p_id=bARpUWEWMV4A5UtpAE_KtcI" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Let’s Make America Too Prosperous to Hate'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peter Navarro</strong> | Director, Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than an entire nation rising up in loud protest against China’s actions—or its snuffing out of freedom in Hong Kong—arsonists, looters, anarchists and hate merchants are savaging cities across America under the false flag of social justice.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here are excerpts from the WSJ op-ed by Peter Navarro, </strong>Director Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Atlanta prided</strong> itself in the 1960s on being “the city too busy to hate.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 2020s,</strong> America must become the country too prosperous to hate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> spent its first three years fulfilling that vision.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With fair trade,</strong> energy dominance, deregulation and targeted tax cuts, President Trump built one of the strongest economies in American history.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was a striver’s comeback,</strong> as lower-income African-Americans and Hispanics enjoyed a disproportionate rise in wages and the lowest unemployment in history.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Peace and racial harmony</strong> through prosperity seemed within reach.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then the Chinese Communist Party</strong> brought the economy to a screeching pandemic halt.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is perhaps</strong> most stunning about this biological Chernobyl is the passivity with which many Americans have responded.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than an entire nation</strong> rising up in loud protest against China’s actions—or its snuffing out of freedom in Hong Kong—arsonists, looters, anarchists and hate merchants are savaging cities across America under the false flag of social justice.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s true that Minneapolis police officers,</strong> in extinguishing the life of George Floyd, dishonored the uniform and tore the fabric of American society.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those responsible</strong> should swiftly face trial and, if convicted, suffer the full consequences of their actions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s also true</strong> that this is the time to be opening businesses, not looting and burning them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those who have chosen</strong> senseless violent rage over righteous peaceful indignation should also feel the full force of justice.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meantime,</strong> if we have learned anything from the pandemic, it is something the president has understood for more than three decades:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To be both prosperous and secure,</strong> America must bring its manufacturing and supply chains home, particularly from countries that mean to do us harm.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s how</strong> we become too prosperous to hate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s also why the most important event</strong> this past week wasn’t the burning and looting of America’s cities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was Saturday’s launch of the Falcon 9 rocket,</strong> the first manned U.S. space mission in almost a decade.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Together,</strong> we must succeed in becoming too prosperous to hate.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With such success,</strong> the strength of our democracy and economy will remain beacons to the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. The Interview: Tom Barkin - part two</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hSWMi?track_p_id=7JjgUueg5fv9hO_5FY3o5cW" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hSWMi?track_p_id=cuNLNifB63dt65fv9hO_z3U" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why Inflation Should Not Be A Problem</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/VYpweSv81BJU6yZJXtMfQTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hSWMi?track_p_id=aB3oxKhviCH5fv9hO_hmgcE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why Inflation Should Not Be A Problem</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Barkin </strong>| President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'American businesses have changed how they think about pricing, and how they think about negotiating, and American consumers have changed in terms of their price elasticity.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is part two </strong>of my interview with <strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed.</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Economic theory</strong> tells us that all debt the U.S. is adding could be inflationary.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How concerned</strong> are you about inflation?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Barkin:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I'm not of the view </strong>that anything we're doing right now is going to drive runaway inflation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Part of that</strong> is because American businesses have changed how they think about pricing, and how they think about negotiating, and American consumers have changed in terms of their price elasticity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The rise in power of purchasing departments,</strong> and the rise in power of consumer price transparency create quite a formidable wall against runaway inflation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A good example of this:</strong> When the tariff issues were hitting China, and then the virus was hitting China, you started seeing supply chain problems.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In both cases,</strong> you could have made a case that American companies could have been raising prices aggressively in the context of one or the other.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And you just didn't see</strong> it in the numbers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why not?</strong> If you compare today to 20 years ago, prices are a lot more transparent than they used to be.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘You try to increase 5% to a consumer,</strong> and they're going to come up with another option. That's what the internet has enabled.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if you're a producer</strong> and your costs go up and you want to increase 5%, in a lot of cases you have to go talk to a Home Depot, or a Lowe's, or a Walmart, and you have to go make the case for your price increase.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now those folks</strong> have built their businesses on everyday low prices, and they're not interested in taking any price increases.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These big low-price retailers</strong> have purchasing departments whose job is zero cost increases.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And so if the supplier</strong> comes in at zero, they go, "Thank you very much.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the supplier</strong> comes in at plus 2%,they say, "No, why don't you make it zero?" ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the supplier comes</strong> in at plus 7%, the purchasing manager says, "I'd hate to bid this out, but if you force me to bid it out, I'll bid it out." ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you're a manufacturer,</strong> to raise your prices, you have to believe that all your competitors are going to do exactly the same thing, that your quality is unassailable, that you can't be replaced by somebody out of Malaysia, or Vietnam, or China - and very few manufacturers have that confidence.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you do have the confidence,</strong> and if you push it through, the purchasing manager will start right then on next year's buying.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that purchasing manager</strong> is going to go find somebody who can manufacture against you at a lower price.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One other impact of the crisis</strong> I should mention: The big low-price retailers are going to get more share because smaller retailers are going to go under here.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Asian Supply Chains</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ikpyC?track_p_id=6U5NK6U5oPkMA_kY5WRczi2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ikpyC?track_p_id=1a5oPkMA_1uIq2NH1DP1MF6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How Fragile are Asian Supply Chains Really? </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/SHrIukVgyDsuq3prryp54Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ikpyC?track_p_id=1S5oPkMA_zIdG3nyO4lbQJl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2hOYRkQ7adiPzxD85omhmki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ikpyC?track_p_id=ewUPHf4p4FxJvoH5oPkMA_j" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How Apple Exemplifies the Resilience of East Asian Supply Chains</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Damien Ma </strong>| MacroPolo</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If East Asian supply chains were in shambles, then consumers would feel it quickly. So far, consumers haven’t.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Was the supply chain system</strong> in place pre-Covid particularly fragile?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would appear</strong> that the concentration of <a href="https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/supply-chain/" rel="nofollow">supply chains in East Asia</a>—from high tech products to commodity goods—has turned out to be a major silver lining.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s because</strong> Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Japan dealt successfully with the pandemic and are now the first batch of major economies to resume production.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A leading indicator</strong> of how well the East Asian supply chain has absorbed the pandemic shock is Apple.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is only one company,</strong> but its performance in the middle of a pandemic, combined with the concentration of its suppliers in East Asia, makes Apple a useful bellwether for the resilience of supply chains (see Figures 1a and 1b).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If East Asian supply chains</strong> were in shambles, then consumers would feel it quickly. So far, consumers haven’t.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reality</strong> is that none of the new products that Apple has quietly released over the last few months has experienced significant hiccups, despite reports raising concerns.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the company’s upcoming</strong> iphone 12 release is still scheduled for the usual fall season, with few signs of delay.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Factors could change</strong> more drastically post-Covid, but the resilience of the East Asian supply chain has been a bright spot amid abysmal economic news.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To borrow Robert Solow’s </strong><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-paradox-what-do-computers-do-to-productivity/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">famous quip</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong> you can see supply chain decoupling “everywhere except in the numbers.” At least not yet.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. Belt & Road Initiative</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OeMb2?track_p_id=2Wd63At7W_n2Yoxqe2kgKHm" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OeMb2?track_p_id=8Wa5dbULi63At7W_ABYlwcI" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The pandemic is hurting China’s Belt and Road Initiative'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/EuNgzsVzU0asmchFhIrKxjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/N7VstqXKrhAeoq7CzImpXzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OeMb2?track_p_id=063At7W_n33vNi3Yk3kmCYP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/hhmv9Hni9q374PI-cytwOki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OeMb2?track_p_id=4XPbs63At7W_Ozpg6PRY%40z2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Break time - The pandemic is hurting China’s Belt and Road Initiative | China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bri is a shape-shifting concept that allows them to adapt it to changing circumstances.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bri is the centrepiece</strong> of Mr Xi’s foreign policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2017</strong> he gave it hallowed political status by having it written into the Communist Party’s constitution.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the going is rough along</strong> the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, to give the scheme its full name.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since 2013,</strong> when Mr Xi first began talking about these new silk roads, China has given or promised hundreds of billions of dollars in loans and grants for power plants, ports, railways, roads and other infrastructure in Africa, Latin America, South-East Asia, Central Asia and Europe (see chart 1, above).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But as a result of covid-19,</strong> work on some projects has come to a halt.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A few</strong> have been scrapped.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Several that seemed of dubious worth</strong> even before the pandemic now look like white elephants.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many of the loans</strong> (see chart 2, above) are on the brink of technical default, as debtor countries—hammered by covid-19—seek to defer payments that are coming due.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many countries</strong> raise the cash for briprojects by exporting commodities. But the pandemic has hit demand for them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Should China reduce</strong> the amount owed, as sovereign lenders sometimes do in response to a financial crisis?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Or should it try to preserve</strong> as many loans and briprojects as it can by delaying payments and extending terms (its typical approach)?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Either way,</strong> experts say, a wave of defaults is inevitable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bri is a shape-shifting concept</strong> that allows them to adapt it to changing circumstances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hitherto its focus</strong> has been on building hard infrastructure.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the term</strong> is often applied to almost any activity abroad involving big Chinese firms that can be touted as helping to create a “Silk Road of Peace”—in other words, it means anything the Chinese government likes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Amid the pandemic,</strong> officials can easily play down the pouring of concrete and stress other kinds of Chinese largesse.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under the banner of the bri,</strong> officials are now lauding the idea of a “Health Silk Road” to help distribute medical support and food aid.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China expects</strong> that the bri-branded medical supplies which it is now showering on covid-struck countries will prompt similar expressions of gratitude.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Focusing on such assistance</strong> makes political sense for China. It can make a big difference to recipients’ efforts to fight the disease, and requires far less cash than a port or railway.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Also gaining more prominence</strong> is the vaguely defined idea of a “Digital Silk Road”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has been adapted</strong> for pandemic use to include helping other countries replicate China’s successes with app-based approaches to tracking the coronavirus.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If done right,</strong> without drowning countries in debt, bri projects may yet provide a welcome boost to the global economy.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">6. China's 'New Infrastructure' Plan</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Kk2XQ?track_p_id=4efQl7S28vG_1NZgGYOOGmP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/ohddhZS_FxQLYTIJ6GKMLUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Kk2XQ?track_p_id=eyc5HykIfhEuwoS7S28vG_H" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China bets on 'New Infrastructure' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Kk2XQ?track_p_id=1z7S28vG_rmAdNM6FBAMAqY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/nn_5J6x_c4MLS2snCjf650i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Kk2XQ?track_p_id=dT1RpSwKR4PawY7S28vG_wq" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China bets on 'new infrastructure' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), Berlin</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Caroline Meinhardt</strong> | Merics</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Analysts expect the investments associated with ‘new infrastructure’ projects to total 10 trillionto 5 trillion yuan for the six-year period until 2025.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘New Infrastructure.’ Beijing wants to see big investments</strong> in the building blocks of China’s digital future – everything from information infrastructure such as 5G telecommunication networks, big data and intelligent computing centers, AI and the industrial internet to integration infrastructure that integrates next-generation technologies across traditional industries, including smart transportation and smart energy infrastructure like EV charging stations – “new infrastructure.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There can be no doubt</strong> about the seriousness of China’s intentions.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Analysts expect</strong> the investments associated with ‘new infrastructure’ projects to total <a href="http://www.miitthinktank.org.cn/aatta/20200324225821366/1-2003231F017.pdf" rel="nofollow">10 trillion to</a> <a href="http://news.cnstock.com/paper,2020-05-21,1321440.htm" rel="nofollow">5 trillion</a> yuan for the six-year period until 2025.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike previous,</strong> more conventional, infrastructure investment programs, this new economic stimulus will rely on a more diverse set of players.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whereas state-owned enterprises (SOEs)</strong> play the predominant role in bridge or railway construction projects, the construction of digital infrastructure will, at least in part, have to be driven by private Chinese technology companies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed, Premier Li Keqiang </strong>has <a href="http://www.gov.cn/premier/2020-04/28/content_5507096.htm" rel="nofollow">insisted that</a> private investment will be key and that the market will have the biggest say in creating new digital applications.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, whether and how</strong> these companies will turn the government’s wishes into action still depends on how exactly government funding will be distributed and what supportive policies they can benefit from.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Private technology companies</strong> will only jump on the bandwagon if there are long-term financial gains to be made.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leading tech companies</strong> with global ambitions may also not want to be perceived as state-directed companies.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As some </strong><a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vDuDYcmAGrQQqzZykOnlxQ?fbclid=IwAR08sUDOIFr3rPJ6WZoepZC4dVRpdbAeaDKuk-Md-iheRK0kJRDFbe8W9Pk" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chinese commentators have</strong></a> suggested, involvement in these projects could turn them into a “new generation of SOEs”.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The leadership’s high-level </strong>calls to action have set off a frenzy of local government announcements across the country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As of early March, </strong><a href="http://www.china.org.cn/business/2020-03/05/content_75777877.htm" rel="nofollow">25 provincial-level regions had</a> already included “new infrastructure” projects in their government work reports, and by May several had pledged to spend <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/business/2020-05/19/content_76062178.htm" rel="nofollow">hundreds of billions of yuan</a> on them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With such eye-watering sums of money</strong> on the table, it looks likely that a lack of regional coordination and over-spending in areas where demand is lagging could create inefficiencies and overcapacities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hundreds of thousands</strong> of new 5G base stations or EV charging points will bring minimal returns if 5G phone and EV demand do not increase at the same rate.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second guessing future</strong> demand is always a high-risk venture, and nowhere more so than in the area of new technology.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">7. The Chinese View of EU-China Relations</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5rDb84?track_p_id=8cy%40VgMnZ6rLUMQ_cyRvjkY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/RN4w7Y7Oihl4bs8DgMRmG0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5rDb84?track_p_id=1A6rLUMQ_DxShS54BBzdPrC" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Trends #5 - EU-China: Towards a Chinese Win</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ch_BYlo5jjftNAyOlbBTUTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5rDb84?track_p_id=36Mq6rLUMQ_QBaorLMmkAGt" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/cDWJddF6YxuEVrAHs7U5pEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5rDb84?track_p_id=7QVx%40xUH6rLUMQ_Jv4L2HW%40" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Trends #5 - EU-China: Towards a Chinese Win</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Institut Montaigne, Paris</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">François Godement</strong> | Institut Montaigne</h3><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One would never guess it from the storms that have brewed publicly in Europe about China – but China’s perception of EU-China relations remains largely positive among Chinese foreign policy elites, for good and (from our perspective) less good reasons.’</strong></h2><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/documents/china-trends/china-trends-5-EN-web.pdf"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read China Trends #5</strong></a> from the Institut Montaigne, Paris</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One would never guess it </strong>from the storms that have brewed publicly in Europe about China – ‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the slide in public opinion mood</strong> about China in most (but not all) EU countries;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the controversies</strong> surrounding the "wolf warrior diplomacy" adopted by several Chinese ambassadors (and renamed "Kung Fu Panda" by China’s envoy to Rome);’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the popular,</strong> if not completely accurate, perception that China is responsible for the Covid-19 epidemic;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the mixed results</strong> of Beijing’s "mask diplomacy";’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'the increasing media criticism</strong> over Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the renewed interest for Taiwan in several EU Member States, and in the Commission.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong>– <strong style="font-weight: bold">but China’s perception of EU-China relations </strong>remains largely positive among Chinese foreign policy elites, for good and (from our perspective) less good reasons.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/documents/china-trends/china-trends-5-EN-web.pdf" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China Trends</strong></em></a> is meant to understand and communicate how the other side thinks because ignoring the ideas and feelings of other parties can lead to policy mistakes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is what the three articles </strong>collected in this issue do, and some of the results are indeed surprising. EU-China relations remain on track because both sides share "pragmatism" and support for multilateralism, while China supports European integration.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8D7ut6?track_p_id=07l3Gda_HRJJlcGZpHnmuLz" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/RN4w7Y7Oihl4bs8DgMRmG0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8D7ut6?track_p_id=eOeQtZpdDtQ1lLD7l3Gda_w" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'EU-China: A Fairly Smooth Road Ahead'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8D7ut6?track_p_id=3Swa7l3Gda_YQUBXgJ3EvXI" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Emdddpty title</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Institut Montaigne, Paris</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Viviana Zhu</strong> | Institut Montaigne</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">interest</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">of</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">and</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">EU</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">are</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">now</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">interconnected,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">and</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">two</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">rise</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">and</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">fall</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">together</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">(一荣俱荣</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">一损俱损).’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese perceptions</strong> of EU-China relations can be divided into two periods:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pre- and post- </strong>COVID-19 crisis.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pre- COVID-19.</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Overall,</strong> most Chinese comments put a positive spin on the EU-China relationship.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">should</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">continue</strong> to defend together multilateralism, free trade and cooperation on environmental ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Geng Shuang,</strong> Spokesperson for the Foreign ministry, outlines three key constant points (三个“始终如一”):’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s attitude</strong> towards EU and its support of European integration;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘its determination</strong> to promote EU- China pragmatic cooperation; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘its commitment</strong> to defend multilateralism along with the EU.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Post- COVID-19.</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">May</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">2020,</strong> the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences published a report on international trends.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">argues</strong> that against the backdrop of the epidemic affecting international relations, it is in the interest of both sides to maintain a good and stable Sino-European. ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">interest</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">of</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">and</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">EU</strong> are now interconnected, and the two rise and fall together (<strong style="font-weight: bold">一荣俱荣</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">一损俱损</strong>).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">means</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">that</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong> does not want a U-turn or even a setback in the Sino-European. ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cui</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hongjian,</strong> Director of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), also predicts that the European Union will be “looking East (<strong style="font-weight: bold">向东看</strong>)” after the pandemic and aim to strengthen EU-China cooperation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">it</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">means</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">that</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong> could also be facing a more demanding and politically tougher EU, which aims to redefine its relationship with China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">US</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">factor</strong> will continue to influence the EU-China relationship, but Cui Hongjian believes in increased EU assertiveness of its strategic autonomy post-COVID, attempting to find its place in the competition between China and the United States instead of picking a side.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some Chinese experts</strong> go further, arguing that China is indispensable for the EU’s economic recovery, making it impossible for the EU to shift away from China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zhang Jian,</strong> Director of the Institute of European Studies of CICIR, believes that China and Europe could only overcome their economic difficulties through cooperation, and such cooperation would be a win-win model for the rest of the world to follow.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Zhou Hong,</strong> Director General of the Academic Division of International Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, points out that while there is political demand and public opinion support in Europe for the relocalization of production lines to the Eurozone, large- scale industrial restructuring is time-consuming and uneconomical.’ <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given the current context,</strong> state intervention in industrial restructuring for the sake of “security” might be possible.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the market</strong> will prevail at a later stage because the Chinese market holds an irresistible attraction for European companies.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Tang Zheng,</strong> Vice President of the China - Europe Association for Technical and Economic Cooperation, suggests that China could increase trade with Europe to facilitate the economic and industrial recovery of European countries. For example, China could promote greater trade cooperation with the European auto industry, which has suffered heavy losses in the pandemic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
6/3/2020
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>June 3, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5hHcVk?track_p_id=23r8scLgU_ZS2Cd4aMHKNBH" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5hHcVk?track_p_id=7ok1vtcw8scLgU_6uhwUnDF" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Whole World is Watching'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/bFT19iXstQMY7JqN79qvHzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5hHcVk?track_p_id=7%40TazBbl8scLgU_YdyvjzM4" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/IZkh1MomY59QJ_i2n7Qkvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5hHcVk?track_p_id=1m8scLgU_aq1cVwDhHueHcX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Macro Reporter Archive</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As I write,</strong> the chant of ‘I can’t breathe’ is coming from a group of peaceful marchers twelve stories below.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I am proud</strong> to live in a country where citizens can gather to peacefully criticize their government and institutions.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">At the same time</strong> I am as appalled at the President’s inflaming the situation as I am at the violence and destruction.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I remember a chant </strong>from the protests of the ‘60s and ‘70s: </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Whole World is Watching.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But while the world</strong> showed widespread support for the causes of those earlier protesters, today it looks on, aghast at America.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And so do I.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘A Shining City on a Hill.’</strong></span> Tom Malinowski, a House Democrat, wrote an inspiring account of what U.S. policy in countering China could be - my feel-good moment in an otherwise wrenching week.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> would frame this as a fight between competing ideals, not countries.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Few would join</strong> a battle of the United States against China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if we make it</strong> about democracy vs. kleptocracy, and the rule of law vs. the law of the jungle, the United States would have allies to spare, including among the overwhelming share of Chinese people who believe in those values, too.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The United States</strong> has to be everything that China under dictatorship is not: well-governed, intolerant of corruption, respectful of privacy, protective of truth-tellers and willing to help — rather than bully — the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Americans</strong> must be realistic about our adversary but also true to ourselves.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now back</strong> to reality.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'Trump has turned America into a pitiful pariah.'</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> ‘</span>The world is watching, and it is appalled by what it sees.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Every tinpot dictator</strong> can now savor a moment of unearned moral superiority over a country that has spent decades lecturing them on human rights.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was only last week</strong> that Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-he-seeks-to-punish-china-trump-faces-criticism-at-home-over-his-own-attacks-on-democratic-values/2020/05/29/26c6772a-a1b6-11ea-81bb-c2f70f01034b_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_14" rel="nofollow">rightly condemned Beijing's</a> move to take away Hong Kong’s freedom. Now China has an unanswerable riposte.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus</strong> tweeted that “freedom-loving people around the world must stand with the rule of law and hold to account the Chinese Communist Party,”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'a Chinese Foreign Ministry</strong> spokeswoman <a href="https://twitter.com/SpokespersonCHN/status/1266741986096107520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1266741986096107520&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2020%2F06%2F01%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fgeorge-floyd-protest-global.html" rel="nofollow">replied</a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: “I can’t breathe.” ’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘The Hong Kong Economy.’</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mainland firms</strong> will certainly grin and bear it, and they are becoming the backbone of Hong Kong’s economy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, Ken Jarrett points out:</strong> Hong Kong’s ‘financial industry is one of the territory’s remaining areas of strength. In most other areas, the advantages have already drifted across the border.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Two Things to Watch.’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Beijing will enter</strong> a period of strategic contraction on Belt and Road projects, as well as other geopolitical initiatives.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘At the same time,</strong> Xi will face pressure for his “reelection” in 2022 and the need to control key appointments.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Accordingly,</strong> he will continue to take a strong line on domestic factional politics and consolidate power in the security and justice systems.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We also expect him</strong> to foment nationalism as a source of domestic legitimacy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘The Cost of the Trade War.’</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong><em style="font-style: italic">Liberty Street Economics</em> of the New York Fed summarizes the findings of a new study that shows the ‘U.S.-China trade war:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Depressed equity prices by 6 percent,</strong> translating into a $1.7 trillion loss in market capitalization for U.S. listed firms and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reduced U.S. investment growth</strong> by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2019 and is expected to shave another 1.6 percentage points off of investment growth by the end of 2020.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Something to consider </strong>if the Phase One deal collapses and the President slaps more tariffs on China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Especially</strong> in evaluating who the real losers are.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. ‘The Chinese Economy.’</strong></span> The economists at Credit Suisse assert:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The worst appears </strong>to be over for the Chinese economy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Great summary </strong>and charts.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">7. ‘Is China Gloating?.’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>The China Media Project does a terrific job of dissecting the reports ‘that Chinese officials might be deriving some pleasure from the protests unfolding in the United States in the wake of the tragic killing of George Floyd.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Turns out </strong>it’s complicated. </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Party-state media in China, </strong>both central and provincial, have not dealt very loudly with the US protests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But some affiliated outlets</strong> have had a field day.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is illustrated</strong> by the ‘Beneath Human Rights’ image (above).</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This image</strong> was apparently created (it is labelled as such) as being from “People’s Daily New Media,” and bears the Sina Weibo tag “People’s Daily.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The image</strong> is clearly angled toward social media audiences, not toward CCP officials (the primary People’s Daily readership), and designed to go viral.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong>the whole analysis.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And you will become</strong> a much more sophisticated consumer of Chinese propaganda.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper into these issues in the posts below.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. 'A Shining City on a Hill’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8G6Sps?track_p_id=4kgLY7YmeII_2jKzLsujMPL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8G6Sps?track_p_id=4lYcc7YmeII_xtcuifYPjjW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The way to defeat China is to be true to ourselves' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ehb_ASCoZRS3f80OuU_HBTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8G6Sps?track_p_id=1f7YmeII_3%405aQOiILE3mRs" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The way to defeat China is to be true to ourselves </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tom Malinowski</strong> | U.S. Representative, New Jersey (D)</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Few would join a battle of the United States against China. But if we make it about democracy vs. kleptocracy, and the rule of law vs. the law of the jungle, the United States would have allies to spare.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The test of an effective China policy</strong> is not how tough it sounds but whether it maximizes the United States’ comparative advantages — including the virtues of our democratic system and the quality of our allies — while exposing the poverty of what Beijing has to offer.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This shouldn’t be hard</strong> given <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/world/asia/coronavirus-china-xi-jinping.html" rel="nofollow">how bad</a> the Chinese government is at winning and keeping friends.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet it’s not what</strong> the United States is doing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An American government</strong> that really wanted to stick it to the Chinese Communist Party would be reinforcing U.S. alliances in Asia, instead of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/trump-south-korea-troops-price-hike/index.html" rel="nofollow">threatening to withdraw troops from</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/us-military-puts-korean-workers-on-unpaid-leave-as-talks-over-costs-continue/2020/04/01/30186308-73c9-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_15" rel="nofollow">South Korea</a> and Japan until they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/us-breaks-off-talks-with-south-korea-over-costs-of-military-alliance/2019/11/19/949773d8-0a9b-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_15" rel="nofollow">pay</a> extortionate rates for U.S. bases.’ <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Imagine Ronald Reagan</strong> going to Berlin during the Cold War and saying “Pay up, or we’re leaving” instead of “tear down this wall.” '</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s how the United States</strong> is treating its allies in Asia today.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our diplomats</strong> would be playing to win at the United Nations, instead of being told to walk away like losers from every international entity China is trying to influence, including the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/29/trump-china-hong-kong-who/?itid=lk_inline_manual_17" rel="nofollow">World Health Organization</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> would be leading the world in making eventual covid-19 vaccines available to all who need them, instead of skipping international pledging conferences and letting China fill the vacuum.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> would be building global coalitions to challenge China’s predatory trade practices, instead of simultaneously sanctioning allies, facing China alone and hinting we’ll back down if Beijing <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/u-s-china-trade-deal-cuts-tariffs-for-beijing-promise-of-big-farm-purchases-idUSKBN1YH1SA" rel="nofollow">buys some of our wheat</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An administration</strong> that really wanted to win an ideological contest with the Chinese Communist Party would stand up for human rights consistently, rather than calling journalists anywhere “the enemy of the people.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would embrace the idea</strong> of the United States as a shining city on a hill that welcomes people seeking freedom and opportunity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would say to Beijing:</strong> “If you suffocate Hong Kong, we’ll open our doors not just to every Hong Konger you persecute, but to all those who want to take their talent and wealth to America.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Above all,</strong> the United States would frame this as a fight between competing ideals, not countries.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Few would join</strong> a battle of the United States against China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if we make it</strong> about democracy vs. kleptocracy, and the rule of law vs. the law of the jungle, the United States would have allies to spare, including among the overwhelming share of Chinese people who believe in those values, too.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is a fight</strong> the United States can win, hopefully without firing a shot.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But it is not enough</strong> to appeal for help; we have to be appealing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The United States</strong> has to be everything that China under dictatorship is not: well-governed, intolerant of corruption, respectful of privacy, protective of truth-tellers and willing to help — rather than bully — the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Americans</strong> must be realistic about our adversary but also true to ourselves.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">2. 'The Whole World is Watching'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7KptLM?track_p_id=5soQv67Fv9I6_aSeJZzzzxG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oTrgnHg5cRN3jMgaU9dAi0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7KptLM?track_p_id=ah6uJy3Tqm67Fv9I6_KNl6W" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘I can’t breathe.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/LfZw4k1bNEhcLUB6ZsKnwzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7KptLM?track_p_id=d5t3G5cXBLWP3M7Fv9I6_Xs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/J5cxg7NnieColo3AEs8EOUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7KptLM?track_p_id=5uUwcU7Fv9I6_KO2dWx5JZK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘I can’t breathe.’: Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NBC News</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Violent protests after the police killing of George Floyd sweep the United States — and China is watching.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "I can't breathe,"</strong> wrote <a href="https://twitter.com/SpokespersonCHN" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, in a tweet </a>on Saturday — a reference to the final words uttered by Floyd as Minneapolis Police Officer <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/video/derek-chauvin-charged-with-murder-in-george-floyd-s-death-84091461527" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Derek Chauvin</a> knelt on his neck last Monday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hua's tweet,</strong> aimed at her U.S. counterpart, State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagu, has been shared nearly 8,000 times on Twitter.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ogXoW?track_p_id=daeZaC5LmC6Fpq4m0A0c_lp" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ogXoW?track_p_id=3OLM4m0A0c_Oefo6fwcT3kE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump has turned America into a pitiful pariah.'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ogXoW?track_p_id=5F6xbc4m0A0c_PwaoIhytvw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/e4ABdnproW1S5L11Eyds1ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6ogXoW?track_p_id=akKTKTajPUV4m0A0c_YcUHl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Trump has turned America into a pitiful pariah'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Max Boot </strong>| Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The world isn’t laughing at us. It is weeping at what we have become.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The world is watching,</strong> and it is appalled by what it sees.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung </strong><a href="https://twitter.com/BBCMonitoring/status/1267778016408674304" rel="nofollow">summed it up</a>: “Trump declares war on America.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our allies are mortified;</strong> our enemies are gleeful, because Trump has handed them a priceless gift.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Every tinpot dictator</strong> can now savor a moment of unearned moral superiority over a country that has spent decades lecturing them on human rights.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chechen strongman </strong><a href="https://twitter.com/BBCMonitoring/status/1267738560360321024" rel="nofollow">Ramzan Kadyrov</a>: “I am horrified by watching the situation in the United States, where members of the authorities brutally violate the rights of regular citizens.” ’ </li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Iranian press</strong> quotes Ayatollah Khomeini: “<a href="https://twitter.com/BBCMonitoring/status/1267741393759490055" rel="nofollow">America has begun the process of its own destruction</a>.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister</strong> Javad Zarif <a href="https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1266782297887514624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1266782297887514624&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2020%2F06%2F01%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fgeorge-floyd-protest-global.html" rel="nofollow">took to Twitter </a>to rewrite one of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s condemnations of Iranian abuses into a condemnation of U.S. abuses — including the mistreatment of protesters.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A North Korean newspaper </strong><a href="https://twitter.com/BBCMonitoring/status/1267779640246046720" rel="nofollow">decries</a> “a white policeman’s brutality.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was only last week</strong> that Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-he-seeks-to-punish-china-trump-faces-criticism-at-home-over-his-own-attacks-on-democratic-values/2020/05/29/26c6772a-a1b6-11ea-81bb-c2f70f01034b_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_14" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">rightly condemned</a> Beijing’s move to take away Hong Kong’s freedom. Now China has an unanswerable riposte.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus</strong> tweeted that “freedom-loving people around the world must stand with the rule of law and hold to account the Chinese Communist Party,” </li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'a Chinese Foreign Ministry</strong> spokeswoman <a href="https://twitter.com/SpokespersonCHN/status/1266741986096107520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1266741986096107520&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2020%2F06%2F01%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fgeorge-floyd-protest-global.html" rel="nofollow">replied</a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: “I can’t breathe.” ’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is,</strong> of course, unfair.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even under Trump,</strong> the U.S. human rights record is infinitely better than Iran’s or China’s.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it is a measure</strong> of Trump’s international isolation that no one is coming forward to defend us.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “America First”</strong> leaves America alone.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. Hong Kong Economy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7R0fQG?track_p_id=9GGLFA3AzX6AyI2A_AfIUgf" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7R0fQG?track_p_id=96G6eapEHS6AyI2A_%40vpzEd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Mainland firms are becoming the backbone of Hong Kong’s economy.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/E69TOTmDkyx5TPPaF8nJcjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/7Rew8U5F_vFFEeN2Dz2F7zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7R0fQG?track_p_id=5%40LPdt6AyI2A_Qsuov3RkSJ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/-pxwNO7TQOTRyouFsOysmEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7R0fQG?track_p_id=7L%40fSNzd6AyI2A_S1TUm1oW" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Mainland firms are becoming the backbone of Hong Kong’s economy.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mainland firms are becoming the backbone of Hong Kong’s economy.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As for business,</strong> Hong Kong’s foreign chambers of commerce were unusually vocal against last year’s extradition bill.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But now</strong> seem to be more muted.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mainland firms</strong> will certainly grin and bear it, and they are becoming the backbone of Hong Kong’s economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The number of foreign firms</strong> with their Asian headquarters in Hong Kong fell last year.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in 2018</strong> the number of mainland businesses with offices of any kind in the city eclipsed the number of American firms for the first time (see first chart).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mainland companies</strong> accounted for 73% of the Hong Kong stockmarket at the end of last year, compared with 60% five years before.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many mainland firms</strong> also turn to the city when selling their bonds (see second chart).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2018</strong> they were responsible for about 70% of the corporate bonds issued in Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8coNF2?track_p_id=aHYTrT2pKvt4nkEEI_zWR4P" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Odc3dRf8ERrg1Wai8VjIm0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8coNF2?track_p_id=04nkEEI_ciNvF66VWCe6MWQ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China experts assess National People's Congress outcomes</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hinrich Foundation</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kenneth Jarrett</strong> | Albright Stonebridge Group</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Hong Kong, this is bad news as its financial industry is one of the territory’s remaining areas of strength. In most other areas, the advantages have already drifted across the border.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The announcement that stole the show,</strong> at least internationally, was the decision to have the NPC Standing Committee draft a national security law for Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The vitality of Hong Kong’s financial industry</strong> is most at risk as it depends on an independent legal system as well as the free flow of information. Both are in jeopardy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Hong Kong,</strong> this is bad news as its financial industry is one of the territory’s remaining areas of strength.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In most other areas,</strong> the advantages have already drifted across the border.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the Trump administration,</strong> U.S.-China relations have entered an era of geostrategic rivalry. End of story.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The NPC decision</strong> regarding Hong Kong will only strengthen that conviction.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We can now look forward</strong> to a U.S. presidential campaign that will further inflame U.S.-China tensions and potentially cause lasting damage.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Two Things to Watch</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/63qjLs?track_p_id=4Fe2s8TgOj8_1WDtHAasiHk" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2YJ58bhvhWoXAUdQwpJK1Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/63qjLs?track_p_id=4jNxP8TgOj8_rzKezWW2ZO2" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘A strategic contraction of Belt and Road projects’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/63qjLs?track_p_id=7MFqimwj8TgOj8_S5%40UzmDk" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Odc3dRf8ERrg1Wai8VjIm0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/63qjLs?track_p_id=eO6lw3kvG3ZdtZV8TgOj8_n" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘A strategic contraction of Belt and Road projects’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hinrich Foundation</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dr. Song Gao </strong>| PRC Macro</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'Xi will face pressure for his “reelection” in 2022 .'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite a push</strong> to accelerate RMB internationalization, we think Beijing will enter a period of strategic contraction on Belt and Road projects, as well as other geopolitical initiatives.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This will divert funds</strong> to focus on domestic substitutes for imported materials and components, as well as transport infrastructure upgrades in western regions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> Xi will face pressure for his “reelection” in 2022 and the need to control key appointments.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Accordingly,</strong> he will continue to take a strong line on domestic factional politics and consolidate power in the security and justice systems.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We also expect him</strong> to foment nationalism as a source of domestic legitimacy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We think the later successful handling of Covid-19</strong> has also put him in a stronger position than he has been in for some time within the Party ranks and among the general public.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such popularity</strong> will allow him to work on the economy and defend China’s external interests without unnecessary domestic political wrangling, which would all pave the road for the 2022 reelection.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">5. The Cost of the Trade War</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77hwZs?track_p_id=e5Sf24R55fQWBZl60T8Dm_o" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YkgX1F61uz40qw_EfgTDy0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77hwZs?track_p_id=eFvXkZbieSYy4T560T8Dm_4" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Investment Cost of the U.S.-China Trade War </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/i6reKbDTuOnRmUuhsLj1Pzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77hwZs?track_p_id=2BT60T8Dm_3goXbaQB345ZA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/0pdFJ8QamcWSJVRG0y-dJUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/77hwZs?track_p_id=96UWYY4jVM60T8Dm_nsmOWc" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Investment Cost of the U.S.-China Trade War </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Liberty Street Economics</strong> | New York Fed</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mary Amiti, NY Fed | Sang Hoon Kong, Columbia | David E. Weinstein, Columbia</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.-China trade war caused a $1.7 trillion loss in market capitalization and is expected to shave another 1.6 percentage points off of investment growth by the end of 2020.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our </strong><a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27114" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">new study</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> finds</strong> that the U.S.-China trade war:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Depressed equity prices by 6 percent,</strong> translating into a $1.7 trillion loss in market capitalization for U.S. listed firms and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reduced U.S. investment growth</strong> by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2019 and is expected to shave another 1.6 percentage points off of investment growth by the end of 2020.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The substantial rise in bilateral tariffs</strong> is likely to have affected the expected profitability of U.S. firms through a number of channels.’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, </strong><a href="http://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/dew35/files/2020/05/JEP-ARW-2019.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">our previous research has</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> demonstrated</strong> that U.S. firms bore virtually all of the cost of higher U.S. import duties, which likely reduced the expected profitability of their operations.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, U.S. firms that export to China,</strong> either directly or through their subsidiaries, became less profitable because Chinese tariffs made them less competitive.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Third, the trade war</strong> seems to have caused a slowing of the Chinese economy, which, in conjunction with the possibility of China imposing new non-tariff barriers on U.S. firms, likely diminished the returns firms made on investments in the Chinese market.’ </li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Discussions of the trade war</strong> often focus only on U.S. exports to and imports from China, missing the much larger exposure of U.S. firms emanating from their subsidiaries in China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> while the United States only exported $130 billion of goods to China in 2017, sales by U.S. multinationals in China amounted to $376 billion that year.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although the large bilateral deficit</strong> in 2017 was driven by the fact that U.S. exports to China were only a quarter as large as Chinese exports to the United States, total sales (exports plus multinational sales) by U.S. firms in China were $505 billion—only 11 percent lower than total sales by Chinese firms in the U.S. market ($570 billion).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> 46 percent of the 3,000 U.S. listed firms in our sample (which encompasses virtually all of U.S. market capitalization), were exposed to China through importing, exporting, or selling through subsidiaries, and the average firm obtained 2.3 percent of its revenues from China.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">6. The Chinese Economy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Arxnk?track_p_id=6lf3qiE92h6nm_sDrTHkAYU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pd2AGi8v7b5rElII6CSyYki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Arxnk?track_p_id=cZv6vMubk2r3c92h6nm_PIO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘The worst appears to be over for the Chinese economy.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1oiHkpgivwNViUw-m8h2Uzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9Arxnk?track_p_id=5eCByR92h6nm_SIkqtbbqTB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘The worst appears to be over for the Chinese economy.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The worst appears to be over for the Chinese economy.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Chinese industrial production</strong> continues to recover from its worst slump in recent decades.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As economic restrictions</strong> designed to slow COVID-19 will likely be further lifted, we expect manufacturers' output to trend higher for the remainder of the year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> growth is likely to be volatile due to choppy external demand, which could weigh on aggregate growth.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example, </strong>auto sales stand 40% below their December level, which was already a five-year low.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'And long-haul travel</strong> is 40% below last year’s levels.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most indicators of China's manufacturing output</strong> have regained a decent share of their losses. Industrial production and power generation now stand just three percent below their December level after falling 20% and 10%, respectively.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Manufacturing PMIs</strong> rose back to levels around 50.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The hightech manufacturing and healthcare sectors</strong> should outperform, but neither is large enough to offset overall weakness fully.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Business investment</strong> is likely to remain weak.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Short-term pressure</strong> to survive has been reduced, but capacity utilization remains low and cash flow remains tight.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Official labor data</strong> have hardly shown any job losses, despite the extreme Q1 GDP contraction.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That said, employment has deteriorated</strong> because of China's flexible labor market and severely damaged services sectors, many of which are still running at partial capacity two months after the end of the complete lockdown.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Final demand for China's industrial output</strong> will continue to face strong headwinds.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sluggish</strong> discretionary consumer spending is consistent with a challenged household sector.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since March,</strong> external demand has fallen more than during the 2008 financial crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Strict lockdowns</strong> in major export markets, including the US and Western Europe, have caused significant economic contractions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our global (ex-China)</strong> goods consumption measure shows a 6% contraction in March, the worst month since its inception in 1980.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As buyers of Chinese exports</strong> delay or cancel previously scheduled shipments, exports will likely fall again after recouping some of their recent losses.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pandemic</strong> has most likely accelerated supply chain relocation away from China, either to reduce costs or improve operational reliability.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The government has announced</strong> additional counter-cyclical policies to support investment. An extra RMB 3 trillion (3% of GDP) worth of local special bonds will be issued later this year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These are project-specific revenue bonds,</strong> which could help infrastructure investment growth return to its trend rate from recent years.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, raw materials</strong> are unlikely to benefit because the new spending focuses on telecommunication and alternative energy facilities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">7. Is China Gloating?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6x3zCS?track_p_id=5hpit375umxK_a21HEh2j3w" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oHIK5dVOyhY7dMprfKJFOEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6x3zCS?track_p_id=cQJdt5gLQeM4C75umxK_PFE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Is China reveling in US woes?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6x3zCS?track_p_id=3lcf75umxK_DwZppZFZSfNi" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/9gVA-Xc-0AFvZqq7HzGUJUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6x3zCS?track_p_id=7loAh3Oe75umxK_TolNCFxz" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Is China reveling in US woes?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Media Project</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Party-state media in China, both central and provincial, have not dealt very loudly with the US protests.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A number of international media</strong> have reported in recent days that Chinese officials might be deriving some pleasure from the protests unfolding in the United States in the wake of the tragic killing of George Floyd.’ </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Guardian </strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">newspaper </strong><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/01/mr-president-dont-go-hide-china-goads-us-over-george-floyd-protests" rel="nofollow">noted Monday</a> that both officials and state media appeared to “revel in scenes of US unrest, comparing protests there to Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times reported</strong></em> yesterday that “[as] protests over police violence engulf hundreds of cities in the United States, China is reveling in the moment.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is certainly true</strong> that Chinese officials are likely to view protests over police brutality toward black people in America as an opportunity to undermine the legitimacy of US statements on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong — and on human rights more broadly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Observe the cunning Twitter mastery</strong> shown by Hua Chunying of China’s foreign ministry on Saturday as she responded with a simple “I can’t breathe,” the rallying cry for police protests, in response to a tweet in which her <a href="https://twitter.com/statedeptspox/status/1266712225026318337" rel="nofollow">US counterpart Morgan Ortagus </a>said that “freedom-loving people around the world must stand with the rule of law and hold to account the Chinese Communist Party, which has flagrantly broken its promises to the people of Hong Kong.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Also cited in several accounts of Chinese</strong> schadenfreude over the US protests is Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of the <em style="font-style: italic">Global Times</em>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In </strong><a href="https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1267018071207669760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1267018071207669760%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2020%2Fjun%2F01%2Fmr-president-dont-go-hide-china-goads-us-over-george-floyd-protests" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">one of a number of US-related tweets</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> Hu equates violence in Hong Kong with the destruction evident on the streets of New York, D.C. and Minneapolis, suggesting the latter must have been incited by Hong Kong “rioters,” who had “infiltrated American states.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hu Xijin later tweeted</strong> with apparent glee: “Mr President, don’t go hide behind the secret service. Go to talk to the demonstrators seriously. Negotiate with them, just like you urged Beijing to talk to Hong Kong rioters.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘French journalist Pierre Haski</strong> observed, not incorrectly, for the <em style="font-style: italic">New York Times</em>: “Beijing could not have hoped for a better gift.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in the prickly domain</strong> of international relations, gifts must be unwrapped carefully.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the comments</strong> from Hua Chunying and Hu Xijin make clear, Hong Kong is the issue underlying Chinese criticism surrounding the US protests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And this makes the attention</strong> focused on the US both a fortuitous occurrence and an extremely touchy subject for the Chinese Communist Party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yes, the US protests</strong> can to some extent be exploited as an opportunity by the Chinese leadership.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the leadership</strong> must be careful at the same time not to imply the legitimacy of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It must undermine the idea</strong> that the United States stands for the values it purports to stand for – freedom, democracy and human rights – while not quite explicitly advocating those same values.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So, looking beyond the social media barbs</strong> of foreign ministry officials and the ever acerbic and often tasteless remarks of Hu Xijin, what are Chinese media saying and reporting about everything happening in the US?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In fact,</strong> the picture is complicated.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hu Xijin’s </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold"> aside</strong> – and it should always be regarded as a bit on the side, an antagonistic voice on the periphery of the core – party-state media in China, both central and provincial, have not dealt very loudly with the US protests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is noticeable</strong> especially in the case of newspapers across the country, which have not prominently reported the news, and have tended to avoid images of the protests, especially images depicting more violent acts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile, social media platforms</strong>, including Weibo and WeChat, which cannot be regarded as state media, have been channels for the sharing of a greater variety of information – including rumour, speculation and commentary.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Readers who are interested</strong> might consider exploring the Weibo hashtag “American riots” (#美国暴乱#) to get a taste of the information being shared.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QHJg0?track_p_id=9ndZQq4dBQ5PSP5a_OLksyy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oHIK5dVOyhY7dMprfKJFOEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QHJg0?track_p_id=7Ahr6SwH5PSP5a_LZyO5S5J" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“Beneath Human Rights” ("人权之下")</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/bFT19iXstQMY7JqN79qvHzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QHJg0?track_p_id=5Fg4bo5PSP5a_M64R2Zpwui" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/9gVA-Xc-0AFvZqq7HzGUJUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QHJg0?track_p_id=6arlA6T5PSP5a_4GW5UO31Y" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“Beneath Human Rights” (人权之下),</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0"> </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Media Project</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The image is clearly angled toward social media audiences, not toward CCP officials (the primary </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">People’s Daily</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold"> readership), and designed to go viral.’ </strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of the most interesting contrasts</strong> can be found between party publications like the <em style="font-style: italic">People’s Daily</em> and their digital cousins, notably “People’s Daily New Media.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The latter specialize</strong> in digital viral propaganda, and generally they seem to be far more provocative – and perhaps effective? – in their manipulation of the themes I mentioned, including the undermining of American credibility on rights and freedoms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The </strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold"> notes</strong> in its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/world/asia/china-george-floyd.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">report yesterday</a>, for example, that an image titled “Beneath human rights” (人权之下), depicting a cracked and broken Statue of Liberty standing over the White House, was “published by <em style="font-style: italic">People’s Daily</em>, the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, and circulated widely on social media sites this week.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It should be stressed</strong> that this image was apparently created (it is labelled as such) as being from “People’s Daily New Media,” and bears the Sina Weibo tag “People’s Daily.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the association</strong> with the CCP’s flagship newspaper seems clear enough, however, it is not quite accurate, and crosses wires in terms of the media power dynamics at play, to suggest that the image was “published by” the <em style="font-style: italic">People’s Daily</em>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The graphic message</strong> borne by the manga-style image above is something we would expect <em style="font-style: italic">not to find</em> approximated in the pages of the actual, official <em style="font-style: italic">People’s Daily</em>, whose discourse is carefully scripted at the upper levels of power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The image is clearly angled</strong> toward social media audiences, not toward CCP officials (the primary <em style="font-style: italic">People’s Daily</em>readership), and designed to go viral.’ </li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The whole phenomenon of viral propaganda in the digital era, and the differential use of formal propaganda organs versus “official” news apps and social media accounts, is a giant issue deserving much more research (calling all graduate students).’</strong> [all bold-type, China Media Project]</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;"> </td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>