The first year of the Trump presidency saw a record US merchandise trade deficit with China, $375 billion. Exports were the most ever. Unfortunately for the president, so were imports, breaking $500 billion. Even in Washington, half-a-trillion is real money, especially if it will be followed by more of the same.

What is the US buying? One of the many annoying things about trade is all the ways there are to slice up the numbers. Using “3-digit SITC,” because it rolls so trippingly off the tongue, here are the top 10 goods imports from China last year:

This is over half of all imports. Banning a product not on this list — not slapping with high tariffs, banning outright — would cut the trade deficit only 3% or less.

Steel, for example, gets a lot of attention. Combined 2017 steel and aluminum products from China were worth barely half as much as radios. Getting rid of them entirely would leave the bilateral trade deficit at $370 billion, still a record. Solar panels, which have already been hit with tariffs, are so unimportant they don’t even have a category.

So steel and solar don’t matter at all to the trade deficit. Nor does it help to talk about how China should buy more US exports. The last five years of exports to China read $122 billion, $126 billion, $116 billion, $116 billion again, and $130 billion last year. This year isn’t suddenly going to see $250 billion. If we’re lucky, it will see $150 billion.

That probably won’t keep up with 2018 imports. The Republican tax plan is bad for national debt but should put more money in people’s pockets. More money means more spending, including on imports. A rise in US exports to China to $150 billion would be 15%. A 15% rise in imports from China would be $75 billion, meaning a $430 billion deficit this year.

It would be perfectly reasonable for the president to say, “If Americans are buying more things made in China because they have more money, there’s no problem.” A lot of people would agree with that, for good reasons.

But he can’t keep saying China is ripping us off and he’s going to stop it unless the US targets the biggest imports. The trade deficit with China is bigger than with the next eight countries combined. NAFTA? The trade deficit in cell phones and computers alone with China is bigger than the trade deficits for all goods with Mexico and Canada combined.

There are of course drawbacks to restricting cell phone, computer, and toy imports — people will have to pay more for those things. Unlike steel, exporting those goods is truly important to China and they can retaliate against US soybeans, for example. Eggs have to get broken before the omelette gets made.

Until then, until the main Chinese exports are addressed, “trade war” talk is much ado about nothing. For better or worse, until the Trump administration targets China-made cell phones, computers, toys, furniture, and clothing, US trade numbers will look pretty much the same.