CHINAMacroReporter

Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?

'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. as a global leader anytime soon.'—Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?' Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S. What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S. So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet?
by

|

CHINADebate

February 27, 2017
Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?

[Malcolm Riddell's conversation with Bill Overholt]

  • The U.S. has been ceding global leadership since the end of the Cold War.
  • But, China — often cited as the likely successor to the U.S. — is not yet ready to assume leadership.
  • Instead, we are headed for is a ‘G-Zero’ world, with no single global leader. Not the U.S. and not China.

Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?'

Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S.

What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S.

So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet? Again, yes and no.

Yes, President Trump's ‘America First’ policies and his disdain for international regimes in trade, climate change, and defense, as well as his treatment of some of the U.S.’s greatest allies, has certainly accelerated America’s global retreat.

But, no, too. Because the U.S. retreat began well before President Trump took office. As Bill points out…

1. Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?

The headlines are all about President Trump, and a lot of that is appropriate, but there are much deeper trends that are more important in the long run.
When Americans are not concerned about a great war or a Cold War, they get less interested in foreign policy when they elect a president.

Thus, since the end of the Cold War, we have elected presidents - from Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to Barack Obama and now Donald Trump - who came to office with no foreign policy experience.

And, we can see a parallel trend in Congress...

What's happened since the Cold War is that Congress has generously funded the military.
But, the State Department and economic aid budgets have been cut and cut and cut. That's a continuous process that has been going on since the 1990s.
Again, Trump is the ultimate caricature of that, trying to take an already minuscule State Department budget and cut it by another 30%, but he's on trend.

The result: 'The principal tools of successful strategy are being eroded at the same time when the top leaders are less experienced, less knowledgeable, and less interested in national strategy and foreign policy.' No wonder American has been losing influence globally.

But, regardless of the causes, the U.S. retreat could still benefit China.

Take Australia, as an example. Headlines there say that Canberra is 'now thinking it needs to tilt more toward China because the U.S. is such an unreliable ally.'

And that, it's 'starting to take more Chinese priorities into consideration’ on issues ranging from South China Sea to free trade.'

If our foreign policy can push even Australia - perhaps our most faithful ally - toward China, how much more will it drive our less stalwart Asian allies toward Beijing?

So, if China isn't destined for global leadership, can it nonetheless supplant the U.S. as the regional leader in Asia? Bill has his doubts about that too. 

2. In A G-Zero World, Will China Dominate Asia?

  • A G-Zero World is coming, where the U.S. will be first among several other powers - but no longer global leader
  • China will become the second most important power and the leader of Asia, propped up by countries alienated by President Trump
  • Still, the extent of Beijing’s regional hegemony hinges on whether it can overcome an array of domestic and international challenges.

Last week, Bill Overholt of Harvard’s Asia Center, presented an intriguing case for why China will not replace the U.S. as global leader (in case you missed it, you can watch our conversation here.)

Instead of a world led by China or the U.S., for that matter, Bill posited a G-Zero world, without any dominant hegemon. In contrast to...

A G-1 one world with one leader like the U.S.
A G -2 world would be a world where the U.S. and China were collaborating to create a world order, as to some extent they have been for a quarter century.
In the G-Zero world, the U.S. and China will be one and two, respectively globally. But...
China will be the regional leader in Asia.
We're not talking about everybody joining an alliance with China. That's not going to happen.
But, on trade issues, on local strategic issues, the Chinese voice is going to get stronger and stronger.
And, even a powerful country like South Korea will be more and more influenced by Chinese views.

And as China consolidates its dominance in what it considers its backyard, there is no guarantee that long-time friendly Pacific powers like Thailand, Philippines, or even Australia will support the U.S. as they used to.

Still, China’s regional hegemony is not a given. According to Bill, the extent of  Beijing’s leadership will depend on Zhongnanhai’s...

  • Successfully implementing its ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative
  • Tamping down the quibbling over minor territorial issues with its neighbors, and
  • Completing economic – and, especially SOE - reform.

How will Beijing carve out a place for itself in this more anarchic reality? How will neighboring nations, who long have prioritized economic growth over military spending, respond to a new Chinese push for Asian domination? And, the crucial question: is war between China and the U.S. inevitable?

3. What 'Thucydides Trap'? Why China & the U.S. Won't Go to War

'It was the rise of Athens [China] and the fear that this instilled in Sparta [the U.S] that made war inevitable.' - Thucydides -(with apologies) 

Like Zeus, the Thucydides Trap has lost its power

Thucydides, 2,400 years ago, summed up the cause of the Peloponnesian War this way: 'It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.'

In more recent times, political scientists have used the simple equation rise of new power + fear of reigning power = war to explain the cause of about a dozen major armed conflicts. The latest to apply the formula is Graham Allison in his Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides's Trap?.

So can we escape? According to Bill Overholt, the question itself is wrong: The Thucydides Trap died in World War II.He argues that since World War II. 

the geopolitical landscape has experienced 'one of the greatest transformations in world history'...   

‘The people who use the Thucydides Trap for analysis - John Mearsheimer and a dozen of other political scientists, including now Graham Allison - focus on the period before World War II.'What they miss is the strategic divide between the pre-World War II era when traditional military and territorial approaches were the way to build a powerful and successful country, and the post-World War II modern world where those approaches are more likely to be self-defeating.' 

Because the proponents of Thucydides Trap analysis focus on the previous world order, they miss entirely that...   

'The game is now going to be decided more by economics. I'm not talking about economic interdependence. I'm talking about the fact that economics is the key to success if you're a realist in the modern world - and this is something that political science realists have never focused on. 'What you do today to achieve power is pour your money into your country's economic success, not make territorial conquests or have overwhelming military superiority. 'This post-World War II change from using military force to using economic development to gain power is one of the greatest transformations in world history.'   

In this new world order, where economics trumps force, the U.S. and China have little reason to go to war...   

'Never have two countries gotten so much economic advantage from dealing with each other than the U.S. and China have. 'There's going to be constant pressure on both sides for leaders to realize that and not to mess it up.'   

And, of course, not go to war.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 14, 2021
How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Confrontation From Ending in Calamity
'The two countries need to consider something akin to the procedures and mechanisms that the United States and the Soviet Union put in place to govern their relations after the Cuban missile crisis—but in this case, without first going through the near-death experience of a barely avoided war.'
keep reading
February 14, 2021
The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War
‘We believe that a crisis is building over Taiwan and that it is becoming the most dangerous flashpoint in the world for a possible war that involved the United States of America, China, and probably other major powers.'
keep reading
February 13, 2021
Why China Will Go Green - Really
‘To Communist Party leaders, greenery increasingly aligns with their economic and political interests. China, a populous country that is cruelly lacking in clean water and arable farmland, and which hates having to rely so heavily on imported energy, has a selfish interest in embracing what President Xi Jinping calls “ecological civilisation”.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'
"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
keep reading
May 5, 2021
'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'
‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
keep reading
May 4, 2021
'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'
At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
keep reading
May 3, 2021
'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'
‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
keep reading
May 2, 2021
'Fanning the Flames of War'
I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
keep reading
May 2, 2021
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
keep reading
April 30, 2021
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
keep reading
April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark
Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden’s First 100 Days: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition'
‘Biden is focused on accumulating as much leverage as possible to deal with China from a position of strength and to dispel the growing Chinese perception that the United States is a power in decline.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'
“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'
‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What does Biden’s first 100 days tell us about his approach to China?'
‘What we have learned from the first 100 days is that we are likely to have both a confrontational and competitive relationship with China, similar to Trump’s policy but with some important nuances.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'China's Response to Biden's Speech'
‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'The New Age of Autarky'
‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'China Inside Out: A Conversation with Susan Shirk & Tony Saich'
‘The centralization of power, quite predictably, leads to this kind of echo chamber effect, which is really quite dangerous. And it's something that we should be factoring in when we think about how to deal with China now.’
keep reading
April 24, 2021
'Xinhua News Agency on the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021" in the U.S.' | 新华社评美“2021年战略竞争法案”
‘The bill is full of Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice, wantonly misinterpreting, slandering and discrediting China's development strategy and domestic and foreign policies, and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'A new era of bipartisanship on China in Congress?
‘The Strategic Competition Act codifies a bipartisan U.S. position on a range of China-related issues and telegraphs to U.S. allies the federal government is unified.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'
‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'
"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Xi calls for new world order (again)'
‘We must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others, or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries [read America] to set the pace for the whole world.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Beijing won total control of Hong Kong. Now, the "brainwashing" begins.'
April 15 was not a normal Thursday in Hong Kong. That occasion, the first “National Security Education Day” since China imposed a tough security law in June, was the most visible display of Hong Kong’s fall from a relatively free, boisterous territory to an ­Orwellian place that resembles the repressive mainland.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
‘The US-Japan Joint Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs'
‘The US-Japan Joint Leaders' Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs and severely violates basic norms governing international relations. China deplores and rejects it.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
'Tokyo Flexes Its Talons'
‘The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has.’
keep reading
April 18, 2021
'Taiwan in US-Japan statement: show of resolve or diplomatic calculus?'
"The statement shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China."
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Is growth in China soaring or slowing?: The answer depends on how you calculate growth'
‘It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.’
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Margaret Ng's Statement at Conclusion of Today's Trial'
‘There is no right so precious to the people of Hong Kong as the freedom of expression and the freedom of peaceful assembly.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. - JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”
‘President Biden and Prime Minister Suga exchanged views on the impact of China’s actions on peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the world, and shared their concerns over Chinese activities that are inconsistent with the international rules-based order, including the use of economic and other forms of coercion.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'
‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'China’s economy springs back from pandemic hit with record growth'
“The headline year-on-year data really doesn’t tell us the story of how the economy has performed in the first quarter . . . in fact that performance was a bit disappointing. The silver lining is that March was better than the first two months.”
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Hong Kong Newspaper Tycoon Jimmy Lai Jailed Over Role in Peaceful Protests'
“The wrongful prosecution, conviction and sentencing of these activists underlines the Hong Kong government’s intention to eliminate all political opposition in the city,”
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China'
‘President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan at the end of summer is likely to confound Chinese calculations, both economic and geopolitical.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.