CHINAMacroReporter

CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'

The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro & Con

“We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.”
by

Gideon Rachman | Financial Times

|

Financial Times

January 6, 2021
CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'

“We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.”

‘Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, says she wants to lead a “geopolitical commission”.’

  • ‘But Ms Von der Leyen concluded 2020 by sending a truly awful geopolitical message — as her commission signed off on an investment treaty between the EU and China.’

‘Over the past year, China has crushed the freedom of Hong Kong, intensified oppression in Xinjiang, killed Indian troops, threatened Taiwan and sanctioned Australia.’

  • ‘By signing a deal with China nonetheless, the EU has signalled that it doesn’t care about all that.’
  • ‘As Janka Oertel, director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank, puts it: “This is a massive diplomatic win for China.” '

‘It is also a considerable kick in the teeth for Joe Biden.’

  • ‘The US president-elect has stressed that, after Donald Trump, he wants to make a fresh start with Europe.’

‘In particular, the Biden administration wants to work on China issues together with fellow democracies.’

  • ‘Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s national security adviser, issued a last-minute plea for the Europeans to hold off on signing the deal — at least until they had a chance to discuss it with the new administration. He was ignored.’

‘EU officials offer several justifications for their decision.’

  • ‘They say that many of the concessions the EU has got from China have already been granted to the US, as part of America’s own “phase-one” trade deal. (These include sectoral openings in several industries, as well as changes to joint-venture requirements.)'
  • ‘Brussels officials point out that the US did not ask for European permission before concluding its own deal with China.’
  • ‘They justify the EU’s decision as a demonstration of “strategic autonomy”.'

‘These EU arguments sound tough-minded. But, in fact, they are naive.’

  • ‘It is naive to believe that China will respect the agreement it has signed.’
  • ‘It is naive to ignore the geopolitical implications of doing a deal with China right now.’
  • ‘And it is naive to think that the darkening political climate in Beijing will never affect life in Brussels or Berlin.’

‘The EU says that this deal will “discipline the behaviour” of China’s state-owned enterprises, which will now be required “to act in accordance with commercial considerations”.’

  • ‘But China made very similar commitments when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.’
  • ‘Pledges to rein in state subsidies made 20 years ago are now being offered up again as fresh concessions.’

‘Beijing’s promise to “work towards” enforcing international conventions on labour standards are also laughably weak.’

  • ‘As Shi Yinhong, a prominent Chinese academic, pointed out: “On labour, it’s impossible for China to agree. Can you imagine China with free trade unions?” ’

‘Over the past year, China has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to ignore treaty commitments.’

  • ‘Its new national security law violates an agreement with Britain that guaranteed the autonomy of Hong Kong.’
  • ‘China has also imposed tariffs on Australian goods in violation of the China-Australia free trade agreement.’

‘The timing of this deal is exquisite for Beijing, since it presents the Biden team with a fait accompli.’

  • ‘Reinhard Bütikofer, chairman of the European parliament’s delegation on China, says: “We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.” ’

‘The EU-China deal was pushed hard by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and concluded right at the end of her country’s presidency of the EU.’

  • ‘Ms Merkel is seen as a champion of liberal values.’

‘But her approach to China is largely driven by commerce.’

  • ‘She knows that the German car industry has had a rough few years, and China is its largest market.’

‘Ms Merkel’s determination to press ahead may also reflect her own scepticism about the future of the US.’

  • ‘In a speech in 2017, she said that Europe could no longer rely on America.’
  • ‘The election of Mr Biden has probably not changed that view.’
  • ‘Many Europeans also believe that the US is on the brink of a new cold war with China — and want little part of that.’

‘Some of these arguments are reasonable enough.’

  • ‘It is hard to look at current events in Washington and feel totally confident about the stability of the US or the Atlantic alliance.’
  • ‘A European desire to avoid military confrontation in the Pacific is also rational.’
  • ‘But relying on an American security guarantee in Europe, while undermining American security policy in the Pacific, does not look like a wise or sustainable policy over the long run.’

‘The Europeans are also kidding themselves if they think they can be blind to the increasingly authoritarian and aggressive nature of Xi Jinping’s China.’

  • ‘For the past 70 years, Europeans have benefited from the fact that the world’s most powerful nation is a liberal democracy.’
  • ‘If an authoritarian nation, such as China, displaces America as the dominant global power, then democracies all over the world will feel the consequences.’

‘Even in the current geopolitical order, China has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to use its economic power as a strategic weapon.’

  • ‘By deepening their economic reliance on China — without co-ordinating their policy with fellow democracies — European nations are increasing their vulnerability to pressure from Beijing.’
  • ‘That is a remarkably shortsighted decision to make, for a “geopolitical commission”.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 7, 2021
'Remarks by President Biden on America's Place in the World'
“We’ll confront China’s economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”“But we are ready to work with Beijing when it’s in America’s interest to do so. We will compete from a position of strength by building back better at home, working with our allies and partners, renewing our role in international institutions, and reclaiming our credibility and moral authority, much of which has been lost.”“That’s why we’ve moved quickly to begin restoring American engagement internationally and earn back our leadership position, to catalyze global action on shared challenges.”
keep reading
February 7, 2021
'In Search of Today’s George Kennan'
‘Kennan provided a framework to break through the bitter divide between those who believed America should return to its prewar isolationism, and those who believed the USSR was itching for a dramatic showdown with the capitalist west.’
keep reading
February 7, 2021
' "Longer Telegram" Sets Off Fierce Global Debate'
'The fierce global debate set off this week by a thought-provoking paper - “TheLonger Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy” – has underscored the urgency and difficulty of framing a durable and actionable U.S. approach to China as the country grows more authoritarian, more self-confident and more globally assertive.'
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'
"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
keep reading
May 5, 2021
'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'
‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
keep reading
May 4, 2021
'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'
At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
keep reading
May 3, 2021
'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'
‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
keep reading
May 2, 2021
'Fanning the Flames of War'
I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
keep reading
May 2, 2021
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
keep reading
April 30, 2021
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
keep reading
April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark
Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden’s First 100 Days: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition'
‘Biden is focused on accumulating as much leverage as possible to deal with China from a position of strength and to dispel the growing Chinese perception that the United States is a power in decline.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'
“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'
‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What does Biden’s first 100 days tell us about his approach to China?'
‘What we have learned from the first 100 days is that we are likely to have both a confrontational and competitive relationship with China, similar to Trump’s policy but with some important nuances.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'China's Response to Biden's Speech'
‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'The New Age of Autarky'
‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'China Inside Out: A Conversation with Susan Shirk & Tony Saich'
‘The centralization of power, quite predictably, leads to this kind of echo chamber effect, which is really quite dangerous. And it's something that we should be factoring in when we think about how to deal with China now.’
keep reading
April 24, 2021
'Xinhua News Agency on the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021" in the U.S.' | 新华社评美“2021年战略竞争法案”
‘The bill is full of Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice, wantonly misinterpreting, slandering and discrediting China's development strategy and domestic and foreign policies, and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'A new era of bipartisanship on China in Congress?
‘The Strategic Competition Act codifies a bipartisan U.S. position on a range of China-related issues and telegraphs to U.S. allies the federal government is unified.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'
‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'
"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Xi calls for new world order (again)'
‘We must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others, or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries [read America] to set the pace for the whole world.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Beijing won total control of Hong Kong. Now, the "brainwashing" begins.'
April 15 was not a normal Thursday in Hong Kong. That occasion, the first “National Security Education Day” since China imposed a tough security law in June, was the most visible display of Hong Kong’s fall from a relatively free, boisterous territory to an ­Orwellian place that resembles the repressive mainland.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
‘The US-Japan Joint Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs'
‘The US-Japan Joint Leaders' Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs and severely violates basic norms governing international relations. China deplores and rejects it.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
'Tokyo Flexes Its Talons'
‘The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has.’
keep reading
April 18, 2021
'Taiwan in US-Japan statement: show of resolve or diplomatic calculus?'
"The statement shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China."
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Is growth in China soaring or slowing?: The answer depends on how you calculate growth'
‘It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.’
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Margaret Ng's Statement at Conclusion of Today's Trial'
‘There is no right so precious to the people of Hong Kong as the freedom of expression and the freedom of peaceful assembly.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. - JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”
‘President Biden and Prime Minister Suga exchanged views on the impact of China’s actions on peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the world, and shared their concerns over Chinese activities that are inconsistent with the international rules-based order, including the use of economic and other forms of coercion.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'
‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'China’s economy springs back from pandemic hit with record growth'
“The headline year-on-year data really doesn’t tell us the story of how the economy has performed in the first quarter . . . in fact that performance was a bit disappointing. The silver lining is that March was better than the first two months.”
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Hong Kong Newspaper Tycoon Jimmy Lai Jailed Over Role in Peaceful Protests'
“The wrongful prosecution, conviction and sentencing of these activists underlines the Hong Kong government’s intention to eliminate all political opposition in the city,”
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China'
‘President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan at the end of summer is likely to confound Chinese calculations, both economic and geopolitical.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.