CHINAMacroReporter

Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China

All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
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CHINARoundtable

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

'The air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’

‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom Orlik


Join us at the CHINARoundtable where Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, will discuss:

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

In 2020, our guest speaker, Tom Orlik, published China: The Bubble That Never Pops to great acclaim.

  • Then just two years later so much had changed that he published an update.

As he explains in his recent Bloomberg essay ‘The China Bubble Is Losing Air But Won’t Burst’:

  • ‘If China is in for a hard landing, the consequences would be cataclysmic for the financial system and economy; for the ruling Communist Party; for global markets.’

‘Amid the host of potential losers, spare a thought for the author who—in 2020—published a book with the provocative title China: The Bubble That Never Pops.’

  • ‘I made the case that the country’s economic and financial system is more resilient, and its policymakers more ingenious, than critics in Washington and on Wall Street would have you believe.’

‘In the two years since, that thesis has undergone an extreme stress test.’

  • ‘Some might say it’s failed.’

‘In the second edition of my book, I take a different view.’

  • Yes, the air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’
  • ‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom will give us his latest thinking on the Chinese economy at the upcoming CHINARoundtable.

Tom Orlik is Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics.

  • He was formerly the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
  • Before turning to journalism, he worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund.
  • Tom earned a Master of Public Policy degree from the Harvard Kennedy School.
  • Besides China: The Bubble That Never Pops, he is also the author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities.
  • And Tom lived in China for 10 years.

Look forward to hearing your comments and your questions for Tom on December 1.

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

More

CHINAMacroReporter

'Congress on China: Then and Now'

‘With the Senate voting on June 8, 2021, to adopt the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act, it is safe to say that this is the most comprehensive action by Congress on China policy EVER.’ ‘The language of the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act is about a long-term competition with China as opposed to war with an enemy.’
June 24, 2021

'Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper folds under government pressure'

Apple Daily was much more than a newspaper. To its fans, it was a defender of freedoms. To its foes, it was the defiler of national sovereignty.’
June 24, 2021

The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong

Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
June 24, 2021

‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’

From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
June 20, 2021

‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?

‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
June 20, 2021

'Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point'

‘The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.’
June 17, 2021

'Meet the New Chinese Economy, Same as the Old Chinese Economy'

If a recovery led by investment in real estate and industrial production, with consumption lagging behind, sounds familiar, it may be because the same could be said of the makeup of China’s growth before Covid-19.’
June 17, 2021

Part 1 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'

‘Beijing is moving swiftly to protect its factories and workplaces from rising costs.’ ‘Still, rising prices in China, by far the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, could be felt around the world.’
June 17, 2021

Bernie Sanders: 'Don’t Start a New Cold War With China'

‘The pendulum of conventional wisdom in Washington has now swung from being far too optimistic about the opportunities presented by unfettered trade with China to being far too hawkish about the threats posed by the richer, stronger, more authoritarian China that has been one result of that increased trade.’
June 17, 2021

Part 2 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'

“Is China exporting inflation? In renminbi terms, it’s not so obvious. But in U.S. dollar terms, it starts to get more sizable.” ’
June 17, 2021

'Forget about China': Clyde Prestowitz

Clyde Prestowitz has influenced U.S. foreign trade and investment policy for many decades, both inside and outside government.
June 13, 2021

'Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win'

‘Biden worries that China is in competition for America, and not only that—they might win. This belief underpins the Biden doctrine.’
June 9, 2021

'From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening democratic cooperation for today's challenges'

‘A “Democratic-10” or “D-10” is aimed at rallying the world’s most powerful democracies around a common cause— advancing a rules-based democratic order based on shared values and common interests.’
June 9, 2021

Biden Worries China Might Win

‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
June 9, 2021

Joe Biden: 'My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies'

‘This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world?’
June 9, 2021

'NATO & China's Challenges to Europe'

‘Even though China does not pose a direct military threat to NATO, contrary to Russia or terrorist groups, Beijing’s growing economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness in Europe coupled with its growing military relationship with Russia do have major implications for the transatlantic economy as well as its security.’
June 9, 2021

5 | Two Caveats

‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
June 3, 2021

1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'

‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
June 3, 2021

4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy

‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
June 3, 2021

6 | The Risks & the Dangers

‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
June 3, 2021

2 | Blame It on Xi

‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
June 3, 2021

3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’

‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
June 3, 2021

Killing China's Grand Strategy

Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
June 3, 2021

'Final Thoughts'

'Just as Brzezinski foresaw the two new contending blocs –– requiring greater “geostrategic skill” –– that are forming today, Kissinger has emphasized the unprecedented dangers that AI could introduce into a divided world.’
May 30, 2021

China's ‘Anti-Hegemonist Bloc’

‘To counter U.S. coalition building, China has enhanced its diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with both Russia and Iran in recent months, resulting in the closest ties these countries have had in the post-Cold War era.’
May 30, 2021

Postscript: China Doubts U.S. Allies Support

'Chinese leadership is also cynical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led Cold War-style bloc.’
May 30, 2021

Biden’s ‘Anti-China Bloc’

‘Throughout President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, his administration has largely continued the Trump administration’s hawkish approach toward China.’ ‘President Biden has also made international coalition building to confront the growing power and influence of China his primary foreign policy initiative.’ ‘Chinese leaders and the public are not convinced by the statements recently made by President Biden that these U.S.-led alliances are “not anti-Chinese” and that the United States is “not looking for confrontation” with China.’
May 30, 2021

What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy

And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
May 30, 2021

Worse for China than Trump

‘Many Chinese now believe that the Biden administration could be more detrimental to U.S.-China relations than the Trump administration.’
May 30, 2021

'Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?'

‘Senior officials on the foreign policy team have frequently emphasized three “C” words: competition, cooperation, and confrontation.’
May 30, 2021

The Trump Legacy

‘From Beijing’s perspective, the hawkish approach to China in the final year of the Trump administration revealed that the Trump team sought to defeat and destroy China in much the same way that the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.’
May 30, 2021

'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'

‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
May 27, 2021

'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'

‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
May 27, 2021

'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'

‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
May 27, 2021

'Sex and the Chinese Economy'

‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
May 27, 2021

'Demography + Technology is Destiny'

The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
May 27, 2021

'China: Births Falling'

‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
May 27, 2021

'Demography + Technology is Destiny'

The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
May 27, 2021

'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'

‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
May 27, 2021

'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'

‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
May 27, 2021

'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'

‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
May 27, 2021

'China: Births Falling'

‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
May 27, 2021

'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'

‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
May 27, 2021

'Sex and the Chinese Economy'

‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
May 27, 2021

'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'

‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
May 27, 2021

'Apple in China: No Plan B'

“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
May 20, 2021

'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'

‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
May 20, 2021

'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'

"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
May 20, 2021

‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’

‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
May 20, 2021

Apple in China

‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
May 20, 2021

'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'

“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
May 20, 2021

‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup

‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
May 15, 2021

Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’

‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
May 15, 2021

Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’

‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
May 15, 2021

After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World

A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
May 15, 2021

‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'

‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
May 15, 2021

'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'

‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
May 15, 2021

After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World

A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
May 15, 2021

'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'

‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
May 15, 2021

'After Xi: China's potentially destabilising succession crisis'

‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’ ‘In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce.’
May 15, 2021

‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'

‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
May 15, 2021

The Poem that Cost Billions

The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
May 12, 2021

'A 1,100-Year-Old Poem Cost Meituan’s Outspoken CEO US $2.5 Billions'

‘On Monday, because of an 1,100-year old poem about events 2,200 years ago posted by the founder of food delivery giant Meituan, investors panicked, and sank the company’s market cap by $15.6 billion. And Meituan CEO Wang Xing, who posted the poem, lost $2.5 billion of his wealth.’
May 10, 2021

'The Housing Bubble That Just Won’t Pop'

‘China’s cities are plagued by a diverging trend: high demand and exorbitant prices for residential properties in tier 1 cities and yet an oversupply in smaller, lower-tiered cities.’
May 9, 2021

'Would China really invade Taiwan?'

‘Is Taiwan really "the most dangerous place on earth?" No. Or at least, not right now.’
May 7, 2021

'Don't Help China By Hyping Risk Of War Over Taiwan'

‘China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict.’ ‘Beijing's goal is to constantly remind Taiwan's people of its growing power, induce pessimism about Taiwan's future, deepen splits within the island's political system and show that outside powers are impotent to counter its flexes.' ‘Its approach is guided by the Chinese aphorism, "Once ripe, the melon will drop from its stem [瓜熟蒂落]," ’‘This strategy may require more time than war, but it would come at less cost and risk to Beijing.’
May 7, 2021

'China Threat: A "perception gap" between the U.S. and Taiwan'

‘While the U.S. talks up the medium-term military threat, the democratic island sees the moves as part of a bigger, more immediate problem: "gray zone" warfare from Beijing that is meant to wear down the morale of not just the Taiwanese military, but also the island's people.’
May 7, 2021

'The most dangerous place on Earth'

‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
May 7, 2021

'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'

‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
May 7, 2021

'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'

"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
May 7, 2021

'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'

‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
May 5, 2021

'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'

At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
May 4, 2021

'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'

‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
May 3, 2021

'Fanning the Flames of War'

I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
May 2, 2021

‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’

‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
May 2, 2021

'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'

‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
April 30, 2021

Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
April 29, 2021

'Biden’s First 100 Days: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition'

‘Biden is focused on accumulating as much leverage as possible to deal with China from a position of strength and to dispel the growing Chinese perception that the United States is a power in decline.’
April 29, 2021

'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'

“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
April 29, 2021

'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'

‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
April 29, 2021

'What does Biden’s first 100 days tell us about his approach to China?'

‘What we have learned from the first 100 days is that we are likely to have both a confrontational and competitive relationship with China, similar to Trump’s policy but with some important nuances.’
April 29, 2021

'China's Response to Biden's Speech'

‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
April 29, 2021

'The New Age of Autarky'

‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
April 26, 2021

'China Inside Out: A Conversation with Susan Shirk & Tony Saich'

‘The centralization of power, quite predictably, leads to this kind of echo chamber effect, which is really quite dangerous. And it's something that we should be factoring in when we think about how to deal with China now.’
April 26, 2021

'Xinhua News Agency on the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021" in the U.S.' | 新华社评美“2021年战略竞争法案”

‘The bill is full of Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice, wantonly misinterpreting, slandering and discrediting China's development strategy and domestic and foreign policies, and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs.’
April 24, 2021

'A new era of bipartisanship on China in Congress?

‘The Strategic Competition Act codifies a bipartisan U.S. position on a range of China-related issues and telegraphs to U.S. allies the federal government is unified.’
April 23, 2021

'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'

‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
April 23, 2021

‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'

‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
April 21, 2021

'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'

"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
April 21, 2021

‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'

‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
April 21, 2021

‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup

‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
April 21, 2021

'Xi calls for new world order (again)'

‘We must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others, or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries [read America] to set the pace for the whole world.’
April 20, 2021

'Beijing won total control of Hong Kong. Now, the "brainwashing" begins.'

April 15 was not a normal Thursday in Hong Kong. That occasion, the first “National Security Education Day” since China imposed a tough security law in June, was the most visible display of Hong Kong’s fall from a relatively free, boisterous territory to an ­Orwellian place that resembles the repressive mainland.’
April 20, 2021

‘The US-Japan Joint Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs'

‘The US-Japan Joint Leaders' Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs and severely violates basic norms governing international relations. China deplores and rejects it.’
April 19, 2021

'Tokyo Flexes Its Talons'

‘The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has.’
April 19, 2021

'Taiwan in US-Japan statement: show of resolve or diplomatic calculus?'

"The statement shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China."
April 18, 2021

'Is growth in China soaring or slowing?: The answer depends on how you calculate growth'

‘It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.’
April 17, 2021

'Margaret Ng's Statement at Conclusion of Today's Trial'

‘There is no right so precious to the people of Hong Kong as the freedom of expression and the freedom of peaceful assembly.’
April 17, 2021

U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. - JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”

‘President Biden and Prime Minister Suga exchanged views on the impact of China’s actions on peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the world, and shared their concerns over Chinese activities that are inconsistent with the international rules-based order, including the use of economic and other forms of coercion.’
April 16, 2021

'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'

‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
April 16, 2021