CHINAMacroReporter

'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'

‘Mr. Xi is determined to bring the creators of wealth under the control of the one-party state.’
by

George Soros

|

The Wall Street Journal

August 15, 2021
'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'
BIG IDEA | ‘Mr. Xi is determined to bring the creators of wealth under the control of the one-party state.’

Mr. Xi came to power in 2013, but he was the beneficiary of the bold reform agenda of his predecessor Deng Xiaoping, who had a very different concept of China’s place in the world.’

  • ‘Deng realized that the West was much more developed and China had much to learn from it.’
  • ‘Far from being diametrically opposed to the Western-dominated global system, Deng wanted China to rise within it.’

‘Mr. Xi failed to understand how Deng achieved his success.’

  • ‘He took it as a given and exploited it, but he harbored an intense personal resentment against Deng.’

‘He held Deng Xiaoping responsible for not honoring his father, Xi Zhongxun, and for removing the elder Xi from the Politburo in 1962.’

  • ‘As a result, Xi Jinping grew up in the countryside in very difficult circumstances.’
  • ‘He didn’t receive a proper education, never went abroad, and never learned a foreign language.’
  • ‘Xi Jinping devoted his life to undoing Deng’s influence on the development of China.’

‘His personal animosity toward Deng has played a large part in this, but other factors are equally important.’

  • ‘He is intensely nationalistic and he wants China to become the dominant power in the world.’
  • ‘He is also convinced that the Chinese Communist Party needs to be a Leninist party, willing to use its political and military power to impose its will.’
  • ‘Xi Jinping strongly felt this was necessary to ensure that the Chinese Communist Party will be strong enough to impose the sacrifices needed to achieve his goal.’
  • ‘Mr. Xi realized that he needs to remain the undisputed ruler to accomplish what he considers his life’s mission.’

‘He intends to overstep the term limits established by Deng, which governed the succession of Mr. Xi’s two predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin.’

  • ‘Because many of the political class and business elite are liable to oppose Mr. Xi, he must prevent them from uniting against him.’
  • ‘Thus, his first task is to bring to heel anyone who is rich enough to exercise independent power.’

‘That process has been unfolding in the past year and reached a crescendo in recent weeks.’

  • ‘It started with the sudden cancellation of a new issue by Alibaba’s Ant Group in November 2020 and the temporary disappearance of its former executive chairman, Jack Ma.’
  • ‘Then came the disciplinary measures taken against Didi Chuxing after it floated an issue in New York in June 2021.’
  • ‘It culminated with the banishment of three U.S.-financed tutoring companies, which had a much greater effect on international markets than Mr. Xi expected.’
  • ‘Chinese financial authorities have tried to reassure markets but with little success.’

‘Mr. Xi is engaged in a systematic campaign to remove or neutralize people who have amassed a fortune.’

  • ‘His latest victim is Sun Dawu, a billionaire pig farmer. Mr. Sun has been sentenced to 18 years in prison and persuaded to “donate” the bulk of his wealth to charity.’

‘Mr. Xi is determined to bring the creators of wealth under the control of the one-party state.’

  • ‘He has reintroduced a dual-management structure into large privately-owned companies that had largely lapsed during the reform era of Deng.’
  • ‘Now private and state-owned companies are being run not only by their management but also a party representative who ranks higher than the company president.’
  • ‘This creates a perverse incentive not to innovate but to await instructions from higher authorities.’

‘To prevail in 2022, Mr. Xi has turned himself into a dictator.’

  • ‘Instead of allowing the party to tell him what policies to adopt, he dictates the policies he wants it to follow.’
  • ‘State media is now broadcasting a stunning scene in which Mr. Xi leads the Standing Committee of the Politburo in slavishly repeating after him an oath of loyalty to the party and to him personally.’
  • ‘This must be a humiliating experience, and it is liable to turn against Mr. Xi even those who had previously accepted him.’
  • ‘In other words, he has turned them into his own yes-men, abolishing the legacy of Deng’s consensual rule.’

‘With Mr. Xi there is little room for checks and balances.’

  • ‘He will find it difficult to adjust his policies to a changing reality, because he rules by intimidation.’
  • ‘His underlings are afraid to tell him how reality has changed for fear of triggering his anger.’
  • ‘This dynamic endangers the future of China’s one-party state.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

October 19, 2017
'Inside China’s quest to become the global leader in AI'
'The RMB did not like the trade data at all, and it weakened immediately - over 1% today.' 'Overnight, the world has moved a little bit away from its U.S.-centric obsession about equity volatility in the United States and around the world to what's going on in China,' says Bob Savage, CEO of TRACK and member of the soon-to-be-launched China Analyst Network.
keep reading
October 11, 2017
Novel Data on China's Mortgage Loans
China’s banks are directed by the state, without irony, to “vigorously promote reasonable home ownership.” Their most recent annual reports repeatedly bury in the notes this line, or some variant of it, as an explanation for the explosion of mortgage lending over the previous 12 months. Granular mortgage data however, is hard to come by – so we created a process to collect, clean, and interpret that information.
keep reading
September 12, 2017
China’s property market risks are rising, says data expert
Price trends in China’s housing market are unsustainable, according to Real Estate Foresight chief executive Robert Ciemniak who worries that excessive leverage among homeowners could lead to a crisis. Real Estate Foresight founder and chief executive Robert Ciemniak has made it his business to gather and interpret real time data on China’s residential property market. He gives his thoughts on what’s to come in China’s housing market.
keep reading
January 13, 2021
Kurt Campbell & Biden Asia Policy
In today’s issue: 1. Kurt Campbell: Biden's 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator' / 2. 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell
keep reading
January 9, 2021
'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay'
‘Even though Pottinger’s name was largely unknown to the public, his influence on U.S. foreign policy will be felt for years to come.’
keep reading
January 9, 2021
'The Relevant Organs' Pro Tip: 'You Definitely Need a Show Trial'
Spitballing here, GOP friends, but Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Ron Johnson and Marjorie Taylor-Greene would make an excellent Gang of Four, if you need a show trial.
keep reading
January 9, 2021
How the Chinese reacted to the incident at the Capitol
In this issue: 1. China Reacts / ‘On Double Standards’ - 'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst' - 'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of The Global Times' / 2. ‘Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns’ - 'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay' / 3. A Pro Tip from 'The Relevant Organs' - 'Dealing with Insurrectionist Leaders the Chinese Way'
keep reading
January 9, 2021
'On Double Standards'
‘Besides, facts are there, beyond anyone's denial, regardless of whether they came up in the Chinese media reports or not.’
keep reading
January 6, 2021
'Mo money, Ma problems - Chinese trustbusters’ pursuit of Alibaba is only the start'
'Chinese trustbusters long resisted hobbling an industry seen as world-beating, and backed in Beijing. Now, as in the West, they fret that a few giants control indispensable services—e-commerce, logistics, payments, ride-hailing, food delivery, social media, messaging.’
keep reading
January 6, 2021
'Mo Money, Ma Problems'
In today’s issue: 1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’ / 2. Biden & the EU-China Investment Agreement / 3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro & Con / 4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba
keep reading
January 6, 2021
PRO | 'The Importance of the EU, China Investment Deal'
‘But we should not have waited for the Biden administration to sort things out. Wait for what? We don't know if China will be more responsive if the three parties sit together. We don't have a timeline. Shall we wait another two or three years?’
keep reading
January 6, 2021
'China and E.U. Leaders Strike Investment Deal, but Political Hurdles Await'
‘China appeared eager to reach an agreement before Mr. Biden takes office in January, calculating that closer economic ties with the Europeans could forestall efforts by the new administration to come up with an allied strategy for challenging China’s trade practices and other policies.’
keep reading
January 6, 2021
'China’s Pro-Monopoly Antitrust Crusade'
‘But Chinese regulators are unlikely to stop at Alibaba; China’s entire private sector has a target on its back.’
keep reading
January 6, 2021
‘Top Risks of 2021’: CHINA
'Overall, this year will experience an expansion of a high level of US-China tensions.'
keep reading
January 6, 2021
CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'
“We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.”
keep reading
January 6, 2021
'With Concessions and Deals, China’s Leader Tries to Box Out Biden'
‘Mr. Biden has pledged to galvanize a coalition to confront the economic, diplomatic and military challenges that China poses. China clearly foresaw the potential threat.’
keep reading
January 5, 2021
'Sansha City in China's South China Sea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control'
‘Sansha City, headquartered on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, has created a system of party-state institutions that have normalized administrative control in the South China Sea. This system ultimately allows China to govern contested areas of the South China Sea as if they were Chinese territory.’
keep reading
January 1, 2021
Competition With China Could Be Short and Sharp
‘The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’ / ‘Historically, the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’
keep reading
October 7, 2020
'Rivers of Iron': Changing the Face of Asia
‘But what's happened now is that Southeast Asia is rich enough to contemplate such infrastructure and that the Chinese have the technology, money, and high-speed rail industry so that they can both finance or help finance and build it.’
keep reading
August 27, 2020
Why China's Economy is Growing Faster than Others
‘First is China's relatively aggressive and decisive measures on the COVID public health crisis itself that managed to get the pandemic under control much faster than the other large economies.’ ‘The relative success in controlling the pandemic translates into how much people are willing to go back to their normal lives, to their jobs, and the like.’
keep reading
May 20, 2020
The Chinese Communist Party Fears Ending Up Like the Soviet Union
‘The propaganda ministry - within four to six weeks - managed to turn China into a problem for Europeans. China’s standing in Europe is eroding by the day.'
keep reading
May 13, 2020
The Party is Infallible
'The Hong Kong demonstrations can never be because of policy mistakes by the Communist Party itself.’ During our interview, Tony Saich of the Harvard Kennedy School told me: ‘Hong Kong, with its responses to the demonstrations, and the Coronavirus are both illustrative examples of how the culture of the Communist Party and the traditions it's built up over almost a hundred years reflect the way it behaves when it's confronted by certain crises.’
keep reading
May 6, 2020
The Phase One Trade Deal
‘The good news is that 80% of our members said they thought the Phase One agreement was a good thing.' 'But only 19% said it was worth it.' 'What the 80% said they are happy about was that there no more new tariffs were coming immediately.’
keep reading
May 2, 2020
South China Sea & Taiwan
'It would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'
keep reading
April 29, 2020
Why Inflation Should Not Be A Problem
‘This is a crisis where the first chair is held by the public health officials, and the second chair is held by the fiscal authorities. We at the Fed have the freedom to be able to move relatively quickly, but we're the third chair here, trying to help out where we can.’
keep reading
April 25, 2020
China, America, & the 'Jaws Syndrome'
‘Both Trump and Xi have a fundamental political divide problem that the COVID-19 epidemic has exposed and made more apparent – and made substantially worse.’
keep reading
April 22, 2020
Why We Need Stronger Global Institutions
‘The trade war was actually about the dissemination of knowledge, knowledge transfer, technological transfer.’ ‘A great irony. We need global institutions or arrangements to deal with trade, technology, and health because individuals, corporations, and national governments cannot.’
keep reading
April 18, 2020
The Pandemic's Impact on Trade
‘There are some people who would say that there was already a retreat from globalization underway.’ ‘The tools of globalization - enormous reductions in the cost of transportation and communication - remain.’ ‘But the marginal utility actually of further advances is declining – that would be one way to put it.’
keep reading
April 11, 2020
The Pandemic May Increase China's Economic Strength vis-à-vis the U.S.
‘Well, I think people around the world are rightly suspicious of the Chinese as they are probably equally suspicious of the Americans.'
keep reading
April 30, 2018
'Big lessons from the faulty analysis that spiked the Shanghai stock market'
ProTips from Andrew Polk, Trivium China On April 24, equity analysts interpreted a phrase used in a Politburo meeting readout to signal a new round of economic stimulus. And, the Shanghai stock market, one of the world's worst performers, spiked 2%. On April 25, having much earlier advised and protected clients, Andrew Polk of Trivium China published an analysis in Trivium's daily (and free) Later, Andrew and I talked about how he reached his conclusions. His explanation is a masterclass in how experience, discipline, and some tedious slogging, combined with a sound analytical framework, lead to good China analysis.
keep reading
April 18, 2018
New super-agency, National Supervision Commission—and China's massive government restructuring
'With government restructuring, the biggest thing is the creation of an entirely new branch of government: the National Supervisory Commission. Its entire job is to overlook every single public official in China. It is an institutionalization and deepening of the corruption crackdown that we've seen over the past few years.'In all, Andrew highlighted four major actions from the Two Sessions: 1.Chinese government restructuring 2.The policy roadmap 3.Personnel 4.The legislative agenda + the constitutional amendments
keep reading
April 16, 2018
The Chinese Government’s 9 Economic Policy Priorities in 2018 (and beyond)
[China Econ Observer] 1.Supply-side Structural Reform 2.Innovation 3.The “three critical battles” 4.Deepening reforms 5.Rural revitalization 6.The regional development strategy 7.Increasing consumption and improving investment 8.Opening up 9.People’s wellbeing
keep reading
April 10, 2018
U.S.-China trade dispute: Will China Weaponize the RMB and U.S. Treasury bonds?
U.S.-China trade war: collateral damageConsider the soy bean. 'China is threatened retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. is one of the largest producers of soybeans. If China's not going to buy them, we're going to have an excess capacity.'' So, last week, we saw a soybean selloff.''But there was a complete dislocation in whole soybean supply chains. Downstream products, like soybean oil, didn't move at all in the same way.'
keep reading
April 5, 2018
Behind the U.S.-China trade dispute: 'The West's China gamble has failed.'
What's the root cause of the current friction between the U.S. and China? The West's disappointment that China did follow the western model but its own, argues Ed Tse, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company (a member of the China Analyst Network). [Ed's solution] look to the similarities between China and the West, especially in the tech sector, and be alert to China's evolution toward better IPR, market access, and other contentious issues, not just the remaining shortcomings. Below is a video of my discussion with Ed and excerpts from both the interview and his South China Morning Post op-ed, 'Chinese innovation with US characteristics? Maybe China and the West aren’t that far apart, in business at least.' Ed presents insights that differ greatly from the China Echo Chamber in the U.S. Let me know what you think.
keep reading
March 8, 2018
How Trump's tariffs impact China's trade/currency relations with Japan & Korea
[China markets update with TRACK's Bob Savage] 'The currency markets are embroiled in trying to figure out whether the Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum are good or bad for the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market.'
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.