CHINAMacroReporter
February 20, 2021
‘UNDERSTANDING DECOUPLING: Macro Trends and Industry Impacts’
‘Comprehensive decoupling is no longer viewed as impossible: if the current trajectory of U.S. decoupling policies continues, a complete rupture would in fact be the most likely outcome. This prospect remains entirely plausible under the Biden administration.’
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February 20, 2021
‘Europe can’t stay neutral in US-China standoff’
‘China aims to create a world that is not safe for Europe — strategically, economically or ideologically. Xi is actively striving to undermine the stature of democracies in the global order. The more power China amasses, the less tolerant it will become with any government that won’t toe its line. China also represents a long-term economic threat to Europe — not merely because it is an advancing competitor in a global market economy, but because Beijing’s policies are designed to use and abuse that open world economy to eventually dominate it.
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February 20, 2021
‘Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War'
‘The economy is the primary theater of our conflict with China. It is now clear that the U.S. and Chinese economies are too entangled, particularly in critical sectors such as medicine, defense, and technology.'
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February 19, 2021
‘No, China is not the EU’s top trading partner'
‘This week the media seized on a report by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, to declare that China surpassed the United States in 2020 to become the EU’s main trade partner. This is simply not true.’
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February 18, 2021
‘China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan’
'Should Mr Xi order the People’s Liberation Army to take Taiwan, his decision will be shaped by one judgment above all: whether America can stop him. If China ever believes it can complete the task at a bearable cost, it will act.’ ‘
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February 18, 2021
'An Unsentimental China Policy'
'Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2019, “The era of engagement with China has come to an unceremonious close.”Yet it is worth remembering what engaging China was all about.’ For most of the past half century, efforts to improve ties with the country were not about transforming it. Judged by its own standards, U.S. engagement with China succeeded. It was only after the Cold War that a desire to change China became a prominent objective of U.S. policy.’
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February 18, 2021
'Like It Or Not, America Is Still A Superpower'
‘The twentieth century was littered with the carcasses of foreign leaders and governments that misjudged the United States, from Germany (twice) and Japan to the Soviet Union to Serbia to Iraq. Perhaps the Chinese, careful students of history that they are, will not make the mistake that others have made in misjudging the United States.’
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February 16, 2021
'Is China experiencing an advance of the state sector?'
‘The value-added produced by state-owned enterprises has usually been in the range of 25-30% of China’s GDP. And what’s really striking about those numbers is that they just haven’t changed very much over the past 25 years. The share of China’s economic output being produced by SOEs today, under Xi Jinping, is not significantly different than it was under Hu Jintao, or even in the later years of Jiang Zemin.’
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February 16, 2021
‘China Blocked Jack Ma’s Ant IPO After Investigation Revealed Likely Beneficiaries’
‘Behind layers of opaque investment vehicles that own stakes in Ant Financial are a coterie of well-connected Chinese power players, including some with links to political families that represent a potential challenge to President Xi and his inner circle. Those individuals, along with Mr. Ma and the company’s top managers, stood to pocket billions of dollars from a listing that would have valued the company at more than $300 billion.’
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February 14, 2021
How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Confrontation From Ending in Calamity
'The two countries need to consider something akin to the procedures and mechanisms that the United States and the Soviet Union put in place to govern their relations after the Cuban missile crisis—but in this case, without first going through the near-death experience of a barely avoided war.'
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February 14, 2021
The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War
‘We believe that a crisis is building over Taiwan and that it is becoming the most dangerous flashpoint in the world for a possible war that involved the United States of America, China, and probably other major powers.'
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February 13, 2021
Why China Will Go Green - Really
‘To Communist Party leaders, greenery increasingly aligns with their economic and political interests. China, a populous country that is cruelly lacking in clean water and arable farmland, and which hates having to rely so heavily on imported energy, has a selfish interest in embracing what President Xi Jinping calls “ecological civilisation”.’
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February 12, 2021
Happy Lunar New Year!
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February 11, 2021
'The Biden Team Wants to Transform the Economy. Really.'
‘Biden and his more activist advisers hope to modernize key industries and counter an economic threat from China, swiftly emerging as the world’s other superpower. “The package that they put together is the closest thing we’ve had to a broad industrial policy for generations, really,” says Scott Paul, the president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.’
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February 10, 2021
‘What the ‘Hong Kong Narrative’ gets wrong'
‘For a significant cohort of the [“pro-democracy”] protesters, the more accurate label would be “anti-China activists.” The one thing that seems to unite them is not a love of democracy, but a hatred of China.'
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February 8, 2021
Why the Anglosphere sees eye to eye on China
‘Some of America’s European allies are very wary of what they fear will be a new cold war with China. By contrast, the US is getting more support from the UK, Australia and Canada.’
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February 7, 2021
' "Longer Telegram" | To Counter China’s Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi'
A strategy that focuses more narrowly on Xi, rather than the CCP as a whole, presents a more achievable objective.'
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February 7, 2021
'The Sources of Soviet Conduct'
'The main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must be that of a long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies.’
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February 7, 2021
'Remarks by President Biden on America's Place in the World'
“We’ll confront China’s economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”“But we are ready to work with Beijing when it’s in America’s interest to do so. We will compete from a position of strength by building back better at home, working with our allies and partners, renewing our role in international institutions, and reclaiming our credibility and moral authority, much of which has been lost.”“That’s why we’ve moved quickly to begin restoring American engagement internationally and earn back our leadership position, to catalyze global action on shared challenges.”
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February 7, 2021
'In Search of Today’s George Kennan'
‘Kennan provided a framework to break through the bitter divide between those who believed America should return to its prewar isolationism, and those who believed the USSR was itching for a dramatic showdown with the capitalist west.’
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February 7, 2021
' "Longer Telegram" Sets Off Fierce Global Debate'
'The fierce global debate set off this week by a thought-provoking paper - “TheLonger Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy” – has underscored the urgency and difficulty of framing a durable and actionable U.S. approach to China as the country grows more authoritarian, more self-confident and more globally assertive.'
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February 7, 2021
The 'Longer Telegram' & Its Discontents
Why everyone wants to be George Kennan‘In 1947 X penned his history-changing “Sources of Soviet Conduct” in Foreign Affairs,’ wrote Edward Luce in the Financial Times in 2018.‘The piece, which crystallised America’s cold war containment strategy, was the making of George F Kennan’s life-long reputation as a master of geopolitics.’‘ As the architect of a doctrine that won the cold war.’
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February 7, 2021
'Brookings experts analyze President Biden’s first foreign policy speech: Focus China'
'To respond effectively, Biden argued, America will need to rebuild leverage, e.g., by pursuing domestic renewal, investing in alliances, reestablishing U.S. leadership on the world stage, and restoring American authority in advocating for universal values.'
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February 7, 2021
'Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ Won’t Solve the China Challenge'
‘Perhaps the most problematic aspect of the 'Longer Telegram's' emphasis on Xi—“All U.S. political and policy responses to China therefore should be focused through the principal lens of Xi himself”—is the author’s conclusion that Washington should be seeking to escape from, and even try to effect the removal of, Xi’s leadership because that could restore U.S.-China relations to a potentially constructive path: “its pre-2013 path—i.e., the pre-Xi strategic status quo.” ’
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February 4, 2021
Why Beijing Is Bringing Big Tech to Heel
‘Beijing’s recent antitrust efforts are motivated less by worries about the tyrannical nature of monopoly power than by the belief that China’s tech giants are insufficiently committed to promoting the goal advanced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of transformative technological innovation—and thus may be undermining the effectiveness of Chinese industrial policy.’
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February 3, 2021
'Secretary of State Antony Blinken on U.S. Policy Toward China'
‘There’s no doubt that China poses the most significant challenge to us of any other country, but it’s a complicated one.’
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February 3, 2021
'Burma’s Coup and Biden’s Choice'
‘The top U.S. priority in Asia is limiting Beijing’s ability to control independent states like Burma, which is strategically situated in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. response needs to take into account China’s regional designs.’
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February 3, 2021
'Myanmar, Burma and why the different names matter'
‘Unlike most of the world, the U.S. government still officially uses "Burma." '
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February 3, 2021
'Coup a further complication for tricky Myanmar-China ties'
‘Even if China played no role at all in ousting Suu Kyi, Beijing is likely to gain still greater sway over the country.’
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February 3, 2021
‘Beijing Won’t Let America “Compartmentalize” Climate Change'
‘‘You want China to take action on climate change?" asks Xi Jinping. "Let’s talk about what you’re going to give to get it.’’
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February 3, 2021
Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition
In today’s issue: 1. China Lays Out Its Position / 2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position / 3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition / 4. Burma or Myanmar?
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February 3, 2021
'A Conversation with Politburo Member Yang Jiechi'
‘History and reality have shown time and again that these issues concern China's core interests, national dignity, as well as the sentiments of its 1.4 billion people. They constitute a red line that must not be crossed.’
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February 3, 2021
'National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on U.S. Policy Toward China'
‘Being prepared to act as well to impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it’s doing in Hong Kong, for the bellicosity of threats that it is projecting towards Taiwan.’
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February 3, 2021
'Coup Puts Myanmar at the Center of the U.S.-China Clash'
‘Chinese oil and gas pipelines snake across Myanmar from China’s landlocked Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal—a route that Beijing wants to transform into a broader economic corridor with road and rail connections.’
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February 3, 2021
'Biden's whole-of-National Security Council China strategy'
'National security adviser Jake Sullivan is personally focused on China as a priority, building capacity across departments and agencies and running processes that break down old silos between foreign and domestic policy.'
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January 31, 2021
'Biden’s Nightmare May Be China'
‘The coming years represent the greatest risks since I began covering U.S.-China relations in the 1980s, partly because Xi is an overconfident, risk-taking bully who believes that the United States is in decline.’
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January 31, 2021
Opinion | Marco Rubio: 'China is exploiting U.S. capital markets and workers. Here's what Biden should do.'
‘China can finance its industrial ambitions with the deepest, most liquid capital markets in the world — our own.’
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January 31, 2021
The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much
“We have honored our profound ties of history and friendship with the people of Hong Kong, and we have stood up for freedom and autonomy—values both the U.K. and Hong Kong hold dear.” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
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January 31, 2021
'U.S.-China Capital Flows Vastly Underestimated'
‘And yet, debates around US-China passive securities investment suffer from shortcomings similar to those inherent in the early debates about US-China bilateral FDI and VC: official data do not provide a clear picture for policymakers to understand the scope and patterns of two-way investment flows and stocks.’
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January 31, 2021
'Why U.S. Securities Investment in China is Vastly Underestimated'
‘The conduits of US securities investment in China that are obscured or ignored in the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) dataset constitute a majority of all holdings, so these figures vastly underestimate the true scope at the end of 2020.’
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January 31, 2021
'Ted Cruz, Chinese Communist Party Agree: Keep Hongkongers Trapped in China'
‘The bill Cruz blocked, the Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act of 2020, would grant political asylum to any resident of Hong Kong who arrives in the United States, allowing them to remain in the country legally after the expiration of any other visa.'
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January 31, 2021
Analysis: China tests Biden on Taiwan, with eye on another island
‘And it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China.’
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January 31, 2021
'Top Conflicts to Watch in 2021: The Danger of U.S.-China Confrontation Over Taiwan'
‘While people appear to believe that the Biden administration will strive to avoid acute crisis with China over Taiwan, U.S. policy toward Taiwan only reflects half of the story. The other, and more important half is from China.’
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January 31, 2021
China Tests Biden
In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
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January 27, 2021
Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'
In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
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January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping Wows Them at Davos'
‘The test for the Biden team is whether it will be tripped up by the feints toward international norms and comity that punctuate Mr. Xi’s pattern of regional aggression.’
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January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
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January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Champions Multilateralism at Davos, Again'
‘While Xi’s speech may have echoed similar themes from his 2017 address, today’s circumstances are markedly different.’
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January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Warns Against Confrontation in Veiled Message to Biden'
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning against the new Biden administration’s preparations to rally allies to challenge Beijing on a range of issues.’
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January 27, 2021
'China rejects 'strategic competition' and calls on US to cooperate'
‘China wants cooperation, not strategic competition, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, a day after the White House said it was looking to form a "new approach" toward China.’
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January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping at the Virtual Davos: Multilateralism with Chinese characteristics'
‘At the virtual Davos this week, Xi essentially proposed a multilateralism with Chinese characteristics—designed to ensure that international interactions be conducted in accordance with China’s perspectives.’
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January 27, 2021
Part Two | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’
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January 23, 2021
‘Reasons for Increases In Cross-Border Capital Flows into China’
'Cross-border portfolio capital flows into China have been rising since 2014.'
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January 23, 2021
'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'
‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’
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January 23, 2021
'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'
‘For the Biden administration to successfully transition to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing Trump measures should not be treated in the same way.’
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January 23, 2021
‘China’s Easing of Regulations Restricting Foreign Ownership of Financial Firms’
'Foreign firms have only a tiny slice of most segments of this market; they control less than 2 percent of banking assets, for example, and less than 6 percent of the insurance market.'
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January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
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January 23, 2021
The struggle over chips enters a new phase
In the 20th century the world’s biggest economic choke-point involved oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Soon it will be silicon etched in a few technology parks in South Korea and Taiwan.’
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January 23, 2021
'Why Chinese Companies are Having a Tough Time Recruiting in the U.S.'
‘I have seen senior executives who take on very public roles within some of these Chinese companies find that their life after those companies has been more limited. It even has a bit of a taint. A bit like working for tobacco.’
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January 23, 2021
H.R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'
‘No doubt the Biden administration will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’
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January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
‘So if you're an autocrat, you really have to be nervous about what's the military doing and is the military coming after me?’
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January 23, 2021
‘China’s Financial Opening Accelerates’
‘Despite predictions by some observers that the United States and China are headed for a “decoupling,” China’s integration into global financial markets is accelerating.’
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January 22, 2021
Confronting the Challenge of Chinese State Capitalism
‘When a U.S. or European firms compete against, say, COSCO Shipping or Huawei, it is the entirety of the Chinese government’s balance sheet that it must contend with, not just an individual firm.’
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January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
‘As Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’
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January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
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January 16, 2021
'Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping'
"The reason why Jack Ma and others could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing. They became famous globally and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them."
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January 16, 2021
'China: Taming the Overshoot'
‘We expect GDP growth to improve to 7.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020.Realized growth will likely overshoot potential growth in 2021, but from a policy perspective, we expect that the authorities would prefer to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’
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January 16, 2021
'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'
‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’
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January 16, 2021
'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'
In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
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January 13, 2021
'Kurt Campbell, Biden’s pick for a new NSC Asia position, should reassure nervous allies'
‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.'
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January 13, 2021
1. 'Restoring Balance'
‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’
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January 13, 2021
3. 'Forging Coalitions'
‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
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January 13, 2021
'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'
‘This combination of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the Indo-Pacific region in flux.'
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January 13, 2021
2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'
‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’
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January 13, 2021
Kurt Campbell & Biden Asia Policy
In today’s issue: 1. Kurt Campbell: Biden's 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator' / 2. 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell
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January 9, 2021
'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst'
‘Now, this "beautiful sight" is taking place in the US.’
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January 9, 2021
'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay'
‘Even though Pottinger’s name was largely unknown to the public, his influence on U.S. foreign policy will be felt for years to come.’
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January 9, 2021
'The Relevant Organs' Pro Tip: 'You Definitely Need a Show Trial'
Spitballing here, GOP friends, but Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Ron Johnson and Marjorie Taylor-Greene would make an excellent Gang of Four, if you need a show trial.
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January 9, 2021
How the Chinese reacted to the incident at the Capitol
In this issue: 1. China Reacts / ‘On Double Standards’ - 'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst' - 'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of The Global Times' / 2. ‘Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns’ - 'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay' / 3. A Pro Tip from 'The Relevant Organs' - 'Dealing with Insurrectionist Leaders the Chinese Way'
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January 9, 2021
'On Double Standards'
‘Besides, facts are there, beyond anyone's denial, regardless of whether they came up in the Chinese media reports or not.’
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January 6, 2021
'Mo money, Ma problems - Chinese trustbusters’ pursuit of Alibaba is only the start'
'Chinese trustbusters long resisted hobbling an industry seen as world-beating, and backed in Beijing. Now, as in the West, they fret that a few giants control indispensable services—e-commerce, logistics, payments, ride-hailing, food delivery, social media, messaging.’
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January 6, 2021
'Mo Money, Ma Problems'
In today’s issue: 1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’ / 2. Biden & the EU-China Investment Agreement / 3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro & Con / 4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba
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January 6, 2021
PRO | 'The Importance of the EU, China Investment Deal'
‘But we should not have waited for the Biden administration to sort things out. Wait for what? We don't know if China will be more responsive if the three parties sit together. We don't have a timeline. Shall we wait another two or three years?’
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January 6, 2021
'China and E.U. Leaders Strike Investment Deal, but Political Hurdles Await'
‘China appeared eager to reach an agreement before Mr. Biden takes office in January, calculating that closer economic ties with the Europeans could forestall efforts by the new administration to come up with an allied strategy for challenging China’s trade practices and other policies.’
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January 6, 2021
'China’s Pro-Monopoly Antitrust Crusade'
‘But Chinese regulators are unlikely to stop at Alibaba; China’s entire private sector has a target on its back.’
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January 6, 2021
‘Top Risks of 2021’: CHINA
'Overall, this year will experience an expansion of a high level of US-China tensions.'
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January 6, 2021
CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'
“We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.”
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January 6, 2021
'With Concessions and Deals, China’s Leader Tries to Box Out Biden'
‘Mr. Biden has pledged to galvanize a coalition to confront the economic, diplomatic and military challenges that China poses. China clearly foresaw the potential threat.’
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January 5, 2021
'Sansha City in China's South China Sea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control'
‘Sansha City, headquartered on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, has created a system of party-state institutions that have normalized administrative control in the South China Sea. This system ultimately allows China to govern contested areas of the South China Sea as if they were Chinese territory.’
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January 1, 2021
Happy New Year!
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January 1, 2021
Competition With China Could Be Short and Sharp
‘The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’ / ‘Historically, the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’
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October 7, 2020
'Rivers of Iron': Changing the Face of Asia
‘But what's happened now is that Southeast Asia is rich enough to contemplate such infrastructure and that the Chinese have the technology, money, and high-speed rail industry so that they can both finance or help finance and build it.’
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August 27, 2020
Why China's Economy is Growing Faster than Others
‘First is China's relatively aggressive and decisive measures on the COVID public health crisis itself that managed to get the pandemic under control much faster than the other large economies.’ ‘The relative success in controlling the pandemic translates into how much people are willing to go back to their normal lives, to their jobs, and the like.’
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May 20, 2020
The Chinese Communist Party Fears Ending Up Like the Soviet Union
‘The propaganda ministry - within four to six weeks - managed to turn China into a problem for Europeans. China’s standing in Europe is eroding by the day.'
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May 13, 2020
The Party is Infallible
'The Hong Kong demonstrations can never be because of policy mistakes by the Communist Party itself.’ During our interview, Tony Saich of the Harvard Kennedy School told me: ‘Hong Kong, with its responses to the demonstrations, and the Coronavirus are both illustrative examples of how the culture of the Communist Party and the traditions it's built up over almost a hundred years reflect the way it behaves when it's confronted by certain crises.’
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May 6, 2020
The Phase One Trade Deal
‘The good news is that 80% of our members said they thought the Phase One agreement was a good thing.' 'But only 19% said it was worth it.' 'What the 80% said they are happy about was that there no more new tariffs were coming immediately.’
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May 2, 2020
South China Sea & Taiwan
'It would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'
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April 29, 2020
Why Inflation Should Not Be A Problem
‘This is a crisis where the first chair is held by the public health officials, and the second chair is held by the fiscal authorities. We at the Fed have the freedom to be able to move relatively quickly, but we're the third chair here, trying to help out where we can.’
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April 25, 2020
China, America, & the 'Jaws Syndrome'
‘Both Trump and Xi have a fundamental political divide problem that the COVID-19 epidemic has exposed and made more apparent – and made substantially worse.’
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April 22, 2020
Why We Need Stronger Global Institutions
‘The trade war was actually about the dissemination of knowledge, knowledge transfer, technological transfer.’ ‘A great irony. We need global institutions or arrangements to deal with trade, technology, and health because individuals, corporations, and national governments cannot.’
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Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?

‘The part of housing prices caused by gender-ratio imbalance is not going to go away in the medium term. But the government has ways to create volatility in the housing market.’
by

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CHINADebate

December 30, 2021
Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?
BIG IDEA | ‘The part of housing prices caused by gender-ratio imbalance is not going to go away in the medium term. But the government has ways to create volatility in the housing market.’

Fund Manager: ‘Given the gender imbalance is not going to be corrected anytime soon, does that mean that the housing prices will stay firm for the intermediate term?

Shang-Jin Wei: ‘The part of housing prices caused by gender-ratio imbalance is not going to go away in the medium term.’

  • ‘Because the need for households to compete on relative saving and relative wealth is not going to go away in the medium term.’

‘But the government has ways to create volatility in the housing market.’

  • ‘The government can make it harder for developers to develop supplies, or it can artificially increase demand.’

‘For example, a central government proposal linked to the migrant issue is for local governments to develop more social housing projects.’

  • ‘The goal is of course to create more affordable housing for low income families.
  • ‘But the other goal is to create demand for cement, furniture, electronic appliances and so on to offset declining demand in the housing sector.’
Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
August 24, 2023
‘The U.S. Has Tactics, But No China Strategy’ | Bill Zarit
July 23, 2023
‘Is Xi Coup-proof?’ (after the march on Moscow, I have to ask)
July 10, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'Change unseen for a 100 years is coming.'
April 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?
January 2, 2023
'Strangling with an intent to kill.’
November 22, 2022
Xi's China: 'less reliable, less predictable, and less efficient'
October 31, 2022
Xi Jinping: ‘Crossing a threshold to outright dictatorship?’'
October 18, 2022
The 20th Party Congress with All Eyes are on Xi Jinping
October 10, 2022
China Coup: How Worried Should Xi Be?
September 26, 2022
'How do you spy on China?'
September 18, 2022
Xi’s Dangerous Radical Secrecy
September 5, 2022
Building Biden's 'Great Wall' Around China
July 10, 2022
A Debt Crisis of its Own Making
July 1, 2022
No. Ukraine Won't Change Xi's Plans - or Timetable - for Taiwan
June 22, 2022
'The competitiveness of China is eroding.'
June 12, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
June 5, 2022
Is Xi Jinping China's Biggest Problem?
May 30, 2022
The Next U.S.-China Crisis: CEOs & Boards Are Not Ready
May 22, 2022
China GDP: 'A very long period of Japan-style low growth.’
May 14, 2022
'Zero Covid' & the Shanghai lockdown
May 1, 2022
Is China's Tech 'Crackdown' Really Over?
April 17, 2022
China: 'Sleep Walking into Sanctions?'
April 17, 2022
Russian Sanctions' Impact on China
April 5, 2022
Faint Cracks
March 21, 2022
Is China in a Bind?
March 13, 2022
Under Construction: Two (Opposing) World Orders
February 19, 2022
'A Fateful Error'
February 17, 2022
Ukraine, Taiwan, & the 'Nightmare Scenario'
February 2, 2022
This is Mr. Xi's Big Year - and Nothing Better Spoil It
January 18, 2022
Bachelors, Mother-in-Laws, & China's Economy
January 5, 2022
Q&A 6 | China Reverse Its Declining Birthrate?
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-1 | Drivers of Growth Momentum
December 30, 2021
Q&A 1 | How Much Does the Gender Imbalance Contribute to China’s Rising Housing Prices?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 4 | Is China Exporting Inflation?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 3 | Property 2022: Stabilization or Growth?
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-3 | Analyzing the Gender Imbalance Data
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-2 | Gender Imbalance as a Driver of Housing Prices
December 30, 2021
Q&A 5 | Will Xi Continue to Favor the State Over the Private Sector?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 7 | Why Did Beijing Ban Online Tutoring?
December 30, 2021
What Are Your Top of Mind Concerns?
December 30, 2021
Getting (Xi Jingping's) Priorities Straight
December 7, 2021
Look Through the Rights Lenses
December 7, 2021
Sometimes You Just Have to Roll the Dice
December 7, 2021
Watch What Beijing Says - and Does
December 7, 2021
'Biden Has a Summit With Xi, but No Strategy for China'
November 23, 2021
Xi Jinping's Leadership: 'The Inevitable Outcome of History'
November 23, 2021
'Xi Jinping has made sure history is now officially on his side'
November 23, 2021
'America's China Plan: A Proposal' by Clyde Prestowitz
November 9, 2021
Why China Won't Invade Taiwan - Yet
October 27, 2021
An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.
October 17, 2021
Just How Contagious is Evergrande?
October 7, 2021
'This Time Feels Different'
September 27, 2021
AUKUS: A New World Order?
September 19, 2021
Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.
September 7, 2021
The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?
August 28, 2021
'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'
August 15, 2021
'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'
August 15, 2021
China Economy: Industrial Production Down, Demand Resilient
August 15, 2021
'China Signals More Regulation for Businesses in Coming Years'
August 15, 2021
‘Global investors shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
August 5, 2021
'Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target'
August 5, 2021
Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You
August 5, 2021
'China Wants Manufacturing—Not the Internet—to Lead the Economy'
August 5, 2021
'Stock Market: China Doesn’t Care How Much Money Investors Lose'
August 1, 2021
'Xi's Four Pillars of Regulation'
August 1, 2021
China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?
August 1, 2021
'Why China Is Cracking Down on Its Technology Giants'
August 1, 2021
'The most significant philosophical shift since Deng'
August 1, 2021
How China's Middle-Class China is Transforming China and the World
July 25, 2021
Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)
July 22, 2021
Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'
July 22, 2021
'Tell me lies, tell me sweet little VIEs'
July 22, 2021
Part 3 | Revising the Rules
July 22, 2021
China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
July 22, 2021
'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
July 22, 2021
Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
July 18, 2021
'I will aim for Mao's Status.'
July 18, 2021
'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'
July 18, 2021
'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'
July 18, 2021
'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'
July 18, 2021
Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling
July 18, 2021
Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'
July 15, 2021
The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents
July 15, 2021
Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America
July 15, 2021
'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'
July 15, 2021
Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again
July 8, 2021
The Chinese Point of View
July 4, 2021
'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'
July 4, 2021
'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'
July 4, 2021
Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading
July 1, 2021
From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich
July 1, 2021
'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100
July 1, 2021
European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'
June 27, 2021
'How China & America Should Compete'
June 27, 2021
'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'
June 27, 2021
'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'
June 27, 2021
'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'
June 24, 2021
Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'
June 24, 2021

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