CHINAMacroReporter

Will Chinese Commodities Derail The Global Reflation Trade?

Leland Miller and Derek Scissors on why investor excitement over Chinese capacity cuts this winter is oversold, and the serious implications for the global reflation trade.

[Leland Miller and Derek Scissors on why investor excitement over Chinese capacity cuts this winter is oversold, and the serious implications for the global reflation trade.] For over a year, commodities bulls have feasted on China. In the aftermath of the recent Communist Party Congress, many investors are now drooling over the prospect the boom will continue, based on Beijing’s promises to supercharge its campaigns against overcapacity and pollution this winter. If such pledges are fulfilled, the thinking goes, substantial chunks of steel, aluminum, and other refining capacity will be taken offline, rebalancing markets and providing rocket fuel to already frothy prices. 2018 could prove to be an even more amped-up version of 2017.
by

Derek Scissors | AEI

|

American Enterprise Institute

November 22, 2017
Will Chinese Commodities Derail The Global Reflation Trade?

For over a year, commodities bulls have feasted on China. In the aftermath of the recent Communist Party Congress, many investors are now drooling over the prospect the boom will continue, based on Beijing’s promises to supercharge its campaigns against overcapacity and pollution this winter. If such pledges are fulfilled, the thinking goes, substantial chunks of steel, aluminum, and other refining capacity will be taken offline, rebalancing markets and providing rocket fuel to already frothy prices. 2018 could prove to be an even more amped-up version of 2017.

Not so fast. Investors are misreading what a winter of capacity or production cuts—an overlooked distinction—would truly mean for China’s commodities sector. Assuming the government follows through in its war on steel and aluminum capacity this winter—and since this campaign appears to bear Xi Jinping’s imprimatur, we expect as much—the effect could well be bullish for prices in the short run.

However, there is a danger in drawing more far-reaching conclusions, especially that commodities are primed for another banner year. In our view, previous efforts to cut net capacity have been illusory. If capacity is finally being cut this winter, there is still so much excess that production could survive unscathed for years. If, instead, it is production being cut for immediate environmental gains, it may simply re-emerge in the spring—all bets should be short-term. Any extended price rally relies on both the cuts being real this time and continued robust demand, despite the latter being increasingly unlikely.

To see this, investors should reconsider the fundamental question: What actually caused key commodities to rally in China over the past year? The official narrative implies a combination of sizzling demand and the government’s touted reductions in supply—a view widely accepted by markets. Take steel. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in late October declared the steel industry had already met its full 2017 target for cutting capacity 50 million tons, after reportedly meeting its similarly ambitious target for 2016. Critically, any distinction between gross cuts and net ones is glossed over.

Many traders accept this narrative because it accords closely enough with their own observations. For example, by 2017 Chinese iron ore imports had jumped to record levels and steel prices were rocketing skyward. Some high-profile capacity cuts were evident, such as those in Tangshan, China’s largest steel-producing city. Under these circumstances, the notion that Beijing had finally gotten serious in targeting excess capacity seems sensible.

Sensible, but not accurate. Our firm’s China Beige Book proprietary commodities survey, which includes hundreds of companies across steel, aluminum, copper, and coal, tracks capacity, production, and investment as reported by the firms themselves. Despite the fact that these firms have a very strong incentive to parrot the government story that they are cutting net capacity, for an astounding six straight quarters they have told us precisely the opposite. While some capacity has indeed been taken offline, as Beijing notes, net capacity rose from the second quarter of 2016 through the third quarter of 2017 in every one of these core industries.

The problem extends beyond capacity to production, specifically overproduction. In aluminum, for example, the percentage of firms reporting rising inventory has been at least 20 points higher than those reporting falling stocks in each of the six quarters. Supposed capacity cuts cannot mean much while inventory continues to pile up.

If not supply cuts, what explains the rally? For over a year, the counterpart to blistering demand has been speculative capital inflows. This is not unusual for China, as the “moneyball” at various times rolls into property, stocks, and bonds, as well. Here, it has kept commodities prices rising skyward for over a year. But, just as it has done with stocks and (recently) bonds, the moneyball also quickly rolls away when chosen markets lose their shine. If commodities demand weakens, investors relying on supply cuts will be exposed.

This could happen quickly. Many China bulls take comfort in the strong 2017 macroeconomic performance as indicating commodities demand will remain robust. In China Beige Book data, though, all four commodities sub-sectors showed substantial demand weakness in Q3, off what may have been a Q2 peak. While this so far represents just one quarter, not yet a trend, any extended slide will cause the moneyball to flee. Until genuine supply reduction becomes clear, there could be intense and sustained downward pressure on prices.

Chinese commodities, like the economy, remain in many ways a black box, so investors can be excused for holding to a government narrative. But there could be serious repercussions from taking government projections at face value. A sharp rather than slow commodities reversal, unexpected in the aftermath of the Party Congress, would reignite doubts about Chinese growth. It would also elevate questions over global growth. To the extent the commodities rally is important to global reflation, a sustained fall in Chinese prices would shake confidence elsewhere.

Recent behavior by various central banks suggests that interest rate hikes could also be held hostage to Beijing’s supply decisions. What happens in China no longer stays in China.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 20, 2021
‘UNDERSTANDING DECOUPLING: Macro Trends and Industry Impacts’
‘Comprehensive decoupling is no longer viewed as impossible: if the current trajectory of U.S. decoupling policies continues, a complete rupture would in fact be the most likely outcome. This prospect remains entirely plausible under the Biden administration.’
keep reading
February 20, 2021
‘Europe can’t stay neutral in US-China standoff’
‘China aims to create a world that is not safe for Europe — strategically, economically or ideologically. Xi is actively striving to undermine the stature of democracies in the global order. The more power China amasses, the less tolerant it will become with any government that won’t toe its line. China also represents a long-term economic threat to Europe — not merely because it is an advancing competitor in a global market economy, but because Beijing’s policies are designed to use and abuse that open world economy to eventually dominate it.
keep reading
February 20, 2021
‘Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War'
‘The economy is the primary theater of our conflict with China. It is now clear that the U.S. and Chinese economies are too entangled, particularly in critical sectors such as medicine, defense, and technology.'
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Ted Cruz, Chinese Communist Party Agree: Keep Hongkongers Trapped in China'
‘The bill Cruz blocked, the Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act of 2020, would grant political asylum to any resident of Hong Kong who arrives in the United States, allowing them to remain in the country legally after the expiration of any other visa.'
keep reading
January 31, 2021
Analysis: China tests Biden on Taiwan, with eye on another island
‘And it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Top Conflicts to Watch in 2021: The Danger of U.S.-China Confrontation Over Taiwan'
‘While people appear to believe that the Biden administration will strive to avoid acute crisis with China over Taiwan, U.S. policy toward Taiwan only reflects half of the story. The other, and more important half is from China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
China Tests Biden
In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'
In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping Wows Them at Davos'
‘The test for the Biden team is whether it will be tripped up by the feints toward international norms and comity that punctuate Mr. Xi’s pattern of regional aggression.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Champions Multilateralism at Davos, Again'
‘While Xi’s speech may have echoed similar themes from his 2017 address, today’s circumstances are markedly different.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Warns Against Confrontation in Veiled Message to Biden'
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning against the new Biden administration’s preparations to rally allies to challenge Beijing on a range of issues.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China rejects 'strategic competition' and calls on US to cooperate'
‘China wants cooperation, not strategic competition, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, a day after the White House said it was looking to form a "new approach" toward China.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping at the Virtual Davos: Multilateralism with Chinese characteristics'
‘At the virtual Davos this week, Xi essentially proposed a multilateralism with Chinese characteristics—designed to ensure that international interactions be conducted in accordance with China’s perspectives.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part Two | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘Reasons for Increases In Cross-Border Capital Flows into China’
'Cross-border portfolio capital flows into China have been rising since 2014.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'
‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'
‘For the Biden administration to successfully transition to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing Trump measures should not be treated in the same way.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Easing of Regulations Restricting Foreign Ownership of Financial Firms’
'Foreign firms have only a tiny slice of most segments of this market; they control less than 2 percent of banking assets, for example, and less than 6 percent of the insurance market.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
keep reading
January 23, 2021
The struggle over chips enters a new phase
In the 20th century the world’s biggest economic choke-point involved oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Soon it will be silicon etched in a few technology parks in South Korea and Taiwan.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Why Chinese Companies are Having a Tough Time Recruiting in the U.S.'
‘I have seen senior executives who take on very public roles within some of these Chinese companies find that their life after those companies has been more limited. It even has a bit of a taint. A bit like working for tobacco.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
H.R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'
‘No doubt the Biden administration will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
‘So if you're an autocrat, you really have to be nervous about what's the military doing and is the military coming after me?’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Financial Opening Accelerates’
‘Despite predictions by some observers that the United States and China are headed for a “decoupling,” China’s integration into global financial markets is accelerating.’
keep reading
January 22, 2021
Confronting the Challenge of Chinese State Capitalism
‘When a U.S. or European firms compete against, say, COSCO Shipping or Huawei, it is the entirety of the Chinese government’s balance sheet that it must contend with, not just an individual firm.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
‘As Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping'
"The reason why Jack Ma and others could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing. They became famous globally and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them."
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'China: Taming the Overshoot'
‘We expect GDP growth to improve to 7.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020.Realized growth will likely overshoot potential growth in 2021, but from a policy perspective, we expect that the authorities would prefer to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'
‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'
In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'Kurt Campbell, Biden’s pick for a new NSC Asia position, should reassure nervous allies'
‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
1. 'Restoring Balance'
‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
3. 'Forging Coalitions'
‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'
‘This combination of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the Indo-Pacific region in flux.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'
‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.