CHINAMacroReporter

'Why U.S. Securities Investment in China is Vastly Underestimated'

Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy

‘The conduits of US securities investment in China that are obscured or ignored in the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) dataset constitute a majority of all holdings, so these figures vastly underestimate the true scope at the end of 2020.’
by

|

The National Committee for U.S.-China Relations | Rhodium Group

January 31, 2021
'Why U.S. Securities Investment in China is Vastly Underestimated'

Read the 24-page report

'Numerous US corporations, individuals, and institutional investors (i.e., pensions, endowments, insurance companies, etc.) have acquired securities issued by corporate and government entities from China. Figure 6, above, provides an overview of some of the most common channels and parties for such transactions:’

  1. ‘Direct purchase of China Onshore Equity Securities: A US institutional investor like a state pension fund places money with a domestic asset manager such as JPMorgan, which in turn obtains Chinese regulatory approval to invest directly in the onshore equity securities listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges on the US investor’s behalf.’
  2. ‘Purchase of American Depository Shares: A US retail investor purchases the US-listed American Depository Receipts (ADRs) of a Chinese company like Pinduoduo. These ADRs confer ownership of the underlying equity shares of Pinduoduo’s Cayman Island holding company, which in turn controls actual operations in mainland China through a variable interest entity (VIE) structure involving a mixture of ownership claims and contractual arrangements.’
  3. ‘Purchase of Hong Kong Listed Shares: A US high net worth (HNW) investor places money with an asset manager outside the United States such as Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, which in turn acquires the shares of a Hong Kong holding company like Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited that controls a physical business in mainland China.’
  4. ‘Direct purchase of China Onshore Debt Securities: A US financial institution like Wells Fargo Asset Management purchases the onshore debt securities of a mainland China company through an international subsidiary using the China Interbank Bond Market Direct (CIBM Direct) program.’
  5. ‘Purchase of Debt Securities Issued via Offshore Financing Vehicles: A US institutional investor like Prudential purchases dollar-denominated debt issued by a central state-owned enterprise such as State Grid Corporation of China through a financing vehicle domiciled in the British Virgin Islands.’

‘Official figures on US portfolio holdings of debt and equity securities issued by corporate and government entities from China come from the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) dataset.’

  • ‘The US Treasury collects the underlying data through surveys of custodians, which report the geography of investor by legal domicile and the geography of the owned securities by the legal domicile of the entities issuing securities.’

‘Therefore, the official TIC data cover investment structures like those described in Channel 1 of Figure 6, but not those described in Channels 2 through 5.’

  • ‘For example, Channels 2 and 3 would be classified as US equity securities investment in firms from the Cayman Islands and Hong Kong, respectively, while Channel 4 would not be considered US debt investment as the securities purchaser is not domiciled in the United States.’

‘TIC data show that US portfolio investment holdings of securities issued by Chinese entities in September 2020 stood at $211 billion for equity and $29 billion for debt, for a total of only $241 billion.’

  • ‘This equates to less than 2% of total US international portfolio investment holdings reported in the September 2020 TIC data and is roughly equivalent to US portfolio investment holdings of securities from South Korea, a country that had only 12% of China’s GDP in 2018.’

‘However, the conduits of US securities investment in China that are obscured or ignored in the TIC data constitute a majority of all holdings, so these figures vastly underestimate the true scope at the end of 2020.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

August 24, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
keep reading
July 23, 2023
‘The U.S. Has Tactics, But No China Strategy’ | Bill Zarit
‘The U.S. needs national review of outward investment to China, but it has to be narrow and targeted and done in conjunction with our allies and partners.’
keep reading
July 10, 2023
‘Is Xi Coup-proof?’ (after the march on Moscow, I have to ask)
What about the guys without guns? So if Mr. Xi doesn’t face a rogue army or a military coup… How about a coup by Party elites?
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Ted Cruz, Chinese Communist Party Agree: Keep Hongkongers Trapped in China'
‘The bill Cruz blocked, the Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act of 2020, would grant political asylum to any resident of Hong Kong who arrives in the United States, allowing them to remain in the country legally after the expiration of any other visa.'
keep reading
January 31, 2021
Analysis: China tests Biden on Taiwan, with eye on another island
‘And it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Top Conflicts to Watch in 2021: The Danger of U.S.-China Confrontation Over Taiwan'
‘While people appear to believe that the Biden administration will strive to avoid acute crisis with China over Taiwan, U.S. policy toward Taiwan only reflects half of the story. The other, and more important half is from China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
China Tests Biden
In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'
In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping Wows Them at Davos'
‘The test for the Biden team is whether it will be tripped up by the feints toward international norms and comity that punctuate Mr. Xi’s pattern of regional aggression.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Champions Multilateralism at Davos, Again'
‘While Xi’s speech may have echoed similar themes from his 2017 address, today’s circumstances are markedly different.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Warns Against Confrontation in Veiled Message to Biden'
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning against the new Biden administration’s preparations to rally allies to challenge Beijing on a range of issues.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China rejects 'strategic competition' and calls on US to cooperate'
‘China wants cooperation, not strategic competition, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, a day after the White House said it was looking to form a "new approach" toward China.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping at the Virtual Davos: Multilateralism with Chinese characteristics'
‘At the virtual Davos this week, Xi essentially proposed a multilateralism with Chinese characteristics—designed to ensure that international interactions be conducted in accordance with China’s perspectives.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part Two | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘Reasons for Increases In Cross-Border Capital Flows into China’
'Cross-border portfolio capital flows into China have been rising since 2014.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'
‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'
‘For the Biden administration to successfully transition to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing Trump measures should not be treated in the same way.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Easing of Regulations Restricting Foreign Ownership of Financial Firms’
'Foreign firms have only a tiny slice of most segments of this market; they control less than 2 percent of banking assets, for example, and less than 6 percent of the insurance market.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
keep reading
January 23, 2021
The struggle over chips enters a new phase
In the 20th century the world’s biggest economic choke-point involved oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Soon it will be silicon etched in a few technology parks in South Korea and Taiwan.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Why Chinese Companies are Having a Tough Time Recruiting in the U.S.'
‘I have seen senior executives who take on very public roles within some of these Chinese companies find that their life after those companies has been more limited. It even has a bit of a taint. A bit like working for tobacco.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
H.R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'
‘No doubt the Biden administration will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
‘So if you're an autocrat, you really have to be nervous about what's the military doing and is the military coming after me?’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Financial Opening Accelerates’
‘Despite predictions by some observers that the United States and China are headed for a “decoupling,” China’s integration into global financial markets is accelerating.’
keep reading
January 22, 2021
Confronting the Challenge of Chinese State Capitalism
‘When a U.S. or European firms compete against, say, COSCO Shipping or Huawei, it is the entirety of the Chinese government’s balance sheet that it must contend with, not just an individual firm.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
‘As Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping'
"The reason why Jack Ma and others could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing. They became famous globally and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them."
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'China: Taming the Overshoot'
‘We expect GDP growth to improve to 7.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020.Realized growth will likely overshoot potential growth in 2021, but from a policy perspective, we expect that the authorities would prefer to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'
‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'
In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'Kurt Campbell, Biden’s pick for a new NSC Asia position, should reassure nervous allies'
‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
1. 'Restoring Balance'
‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
3. 'Forging Coalitions'
‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'
‘This combination of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the Indo-Pacific region in flux.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'
‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.