CHINAMacroReporter

'The New Age of Autarky'

‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
by

Scott Malcomson | Strategic Insight Group and Futuremap

|

Foreign Affairs

April 26, 2021
'The New Age of Autarky'
BIG IDEA | ‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’  

‘The most striking geopolitical feature of the past four years has not been bipolarity or multipolarity—or even great-power conflict.’

  • ‘It has been the spectacle of major economies pursuing self-sufficiency and a partial retreat from globalization in order to ensure their security, innovative capacity, domestic stability, and economic prospects.’
  • ‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’

‘After the Cold War, the conventional wisdom held that a global economic convergence was inevitable—that countries would only grow more economically interdependent.’

  • ‘In hindsight, it is clear this was not the case.’

‘Yet few would have predicted even a few years ago that three of globalization’s leading beneficiaries would turn to variations of autarky—or that a global trend toward self-sufficiency would come to dominate geopolitics.’

‘China, India, and the United States are now the world’s three most populous countries and its largest economies.’

  • ‘Together, they account for about 60 percent of the global economy, a far greater share than they did during the Cold War era.’

‘Yet the United States under President Donald Trump embraced “economic nationalism.” ’

  • ‘China under President Xi Jinping and India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi opted for “self-sufficiency”: zili gengsheng in Mandarin and atmanirbhar in Hindi.’

‘Unlike most major economies, all three countries have increased their GDP per capita over the past decade while reducing their trade exposure, as measured by their trade-to-GDP ratio.’

  • ‘This pattern of differential globalization points to the rise of a new autarky that could prevail among these major economies for the next decade or more.’

‘How long this new era of autarky will last depends in part on the length and intensity of major-power competition.’

  • ‘The “Big Three” governments will likely continue to push for self-sufficiency for as long as there is heightened security competition—which in the case of the United States and China, and of India and China, could be a very long time.’

Focus China. ‘Self-sufficiency has long been a goal in China as well, albeit an often elusive one.’

  • ‘From the late seventeenth century to the mid-nineteenth century, imperial China cultivated the productivity of its domestic market, as well as a controlled but lucrative export sector.’

‘But its internal march of progress ended abruptly with the beginning of the Opium War in 1839, when China entered a “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers.’

  • ‘This century ended in 1949 with the Chinese Communist Party’s victory over its nationalist rivals and their foreign supporters, notably the United States.’

‘But as early as 1945, communist leader Mao Zedong stressed the nationalist and sovereign aspect of self-reliance:’

  • ‘ “On what basis should our policy rest? It should rest on our own strength, and that means ‘regeneration through one’s own efforts’ (zili gengsheng).” ’

‘President Xi Jinping revived this idea in 2018, claiming that “unilateralism and trade protectionism have risen, forcing us to travel the road of self-reliance.” ’

  • ‘In this spirit, Xi has championed the development of a high-technology military-industrial base that will prevent a second humiliation of China, this time by the power of U.S. technical innovation.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 7, 2021
'Brookings experts analyze President Biden’s first foreign policy speech: Focus China'
'To respond effectively, Biden argued, America will need to rebuild leverage, e.g., by pursuing domestic renewal, investing in alliances, reestablishing U.S. leadership on the world stage, and restoring American authority in advocating for universal values.'
keep reading
February 7, 2021
'Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ Won’t Solve the China Challenge'
‘Perhaps the most problematic aspect of the 'Longer Telegram's' emphasis on Xi—“All U.S. political and policy responses to China therefore should be focused through the principal lens of Xi himself”—is the author’s conclusion that Washington should be seeking to escape from, and even try to effect the removal of, Xi’s leadership because that could restore U.S.-China relations to a potentially constructive path: “its pre-2013 path—i.e., the pre-Xi strategic status quo.” ’
keep reading
February 4, 2021
Why Beijing Is Bringing Big Tech to Heel
‘Beijing’s recent antitrust efforts are motivated less by worries about the tyrannical nature of monopoly power than by the belief that China’s tech giants are insufficiently committed to promoting the goal advanced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of transformative technological innovation—and thus may be undermining the effectiveness of Chinese industrial policy.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Ted Cruz, Chinese Communist Party Agree: Keep Hongkongers Trapped in China'
‘The bill Cruz blocked, the Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act of 2020, would grant political asylum to any resident of Hong Kong who arrives in the United States, allowing them to remain in the country legally after the expiration of any other visa.'
keep reading
January 31, 2021
Analysis: China tests Biden on Taiwan, with eye on another island
‘And it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Top Conflicts to Watch in 2021: The Danger of U.S.-China Confrontation Over Taiwan'
‘While people appear to believe that the Biden administration will strive to avoid acute crisis with China over Taiwan, U.S. policy toward Taiwan only reflects half of the story. The other, and more important half is from China.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
China Tests Biden
In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'
In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping Wows Them at Davos'
‘The test for the Biden team is whether it will be tripped up by the feints toward international norms and comity that punctuate Mr. Xi’s pattern of regional aggression.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Champions Multilateralism at Davos, Again'
‘While Xi’s speech may have echoed similar themes from his 2017 address, today’s circumstances are markedly different.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Warns Against Confrontation in Veiled Message to Biden'
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning against the new Biden administration’s preparations to rally allies to challenge Beijing on a range of issues.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China rejects 'strategic competition' and calls on US to cooperate'
‘China wants cooperation, not strategic competition, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, a day after the White House said it was looking to form a "new approach" toward China.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping at the Virtual Davos: Multilateralism with Chinese characteristics'
‘At the virtual Davos this week, Xi essentially proposed a multilateralism with Chinese characteristics—designed to ensure that international interactions be conducted in accordance with China’s perspectives.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
Part Two | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘Reasons for Increases In Cross-Border Capital Flows into China’
'Cross-border portfolio capital flows into China have been rising since 2014.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'
‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'
‘For the Biden administration to successfully transition to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing Trump measures should not be treated in the same way.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Easing of Regulations Restricting Foreign Ownership of Financial Firms’
'Foreign firms have only a tiny slice of most segments of this market; they control less than 2 percent of banking assets, for example, and less than 6 percent of the insurance market.'
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
keep reading
January 23, 2021
The struggle over chips enters a new phase
In the 20th century the world’s biggest economic choke-point involved oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Soon it will be silicon etched in a few technology parks in South Korea and Taiwan.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Why Chinese Companies are Having a Tough Time Recruiting in the U.S.'
‘I have seen senior executives who take on very public roles within some of these Chinese companies find that their life after those companies has been more limited. It even has a bit of a taint. A bit like working for tobacco.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
H.R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'
‘No doubt the Biden administration will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'
‘So if you're an autocrat, you really have to be nervous about what's the military doing and is the military coming after me?’
keep reading
January 23, 2021
‘China’s Financial Opening Accelerates’
‘Despite predictions by some observers that the United States and China are headed for a “decoupling,” China’s integration into global financial markets is accelerating.’
keep reading
January 22, 2021
Confronting the Challenge of Chinese State Capitalism
‘When a U.S. or European firms compete against, say, COSCO Shipping or Huawei, it is the entirety of the Chinese government’s balance sheet that it must contend with, not just an individual firm.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
‘As Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’
keep reading
January 20, 2021
'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'
In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping'
"The reason why Jack Ma and others could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing. They became famous globally and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them."
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'China: Taming the Overshoot'
‘We expect GDP growth to improve to 7.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020.Realized growth will likely overshoot potential growth in 2021, but from a policy perspective, we expect that the authorities would prefer to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'
‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’
keep reading
January 16, 2021
'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'
In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'Kurt Campbell, Biden’s pick for a new NSC Asia position, should reassure nervous allies'
‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
1. 'Restoring Balance'
‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
3. 'Forging Coalitions'
‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
keep reading
January 13, 2021
'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'
‘This combination of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the Indo-Pacific region in flux.'
keep reading
January 13, 2021
2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'
‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.