CHINAMacroReporter

The 'Longer Telegram' & Its Discontents

Why everyone wants to be George Kennan‘In 1947 X penned his history-changing “Sources of Soviet Conduct” in Foreign Affairs,’ wrote Edward Luce in the Financial Times in 2018.‘The piece, which crystallised America’s cold war containment strategy, was the making of George F Kennan’s life-long reputation as a master of geopolitics.’‘ As the architect of a doctrine that won the cold war.’
by

|

CHINADebate

February 7, 2021
The 'Longer Telegram' & Its Discontents

In today’s issue:

1. Biden Lays Out His China Policy

  • 'Remarks by President Biden on America's Place in the World
  • 'Brookings experts analyze President Biden’s first foreign policy speech: Focus China'

2. The 'Longer Telegram' & Its Discontents

  • ' "Longer Telegram" Sets Off Fierce Global Debate'
  • ' "Longer Telegram" | To Counter China’s Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi'
  • 'Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ Won’t Solve the China Challenge'

3. Calling Mr. Kennan

  • 'In Search of Today’s George Kennan'

4. A Look Back to 1947 & 'X'

  • 'The Sources of Soviet Conduct' by X

‘A proliferation of new policy ideas often accompanies a changing of the guard in Washington,’ writes Axios’ Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.

  • ‘But this time around, growing concern over China's rise has driven debate into overdrive, as numerous stakeholders present competing visions for a U.S. response.’
  • ‘Numerous analysts are seizing this moment to showcase their ideas for containing China's authoritarianism and rejuvenating democracy, in the hope that their proposals might influence the Biden administration's future direction.’

‘Some U.S. strategists have made comparisons to the early days of the Cold War, when State Department official George Kennan published an anonymous essay based off a cable, later known as the "Long Telegram," that laid out what would become the U.S. strategy of containment toward the Soviet Union.’

  • ‘In November 2020, the Trump State Department's office of policy planning produced a 70-plus-page China strategy paper that openly drew inspiration from the Long Telegram but was not named after it.’
  • ‘Last week, the Atlantic Council published a lengthy strategy paper called "The Longer Telegram," attributed to an anonymous former U.S. senior official.’

With this in mind, let’s look at three points:

  1. Why everyone wants to be George Kennan
  2. Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ is no ‘Long Telegram’
  3. Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ or any other proposed China strategy won’t make any difference

1. Why everyone wants to be George Kennan

‘In 1947 X penned his history-changing “Sources of Soviet Conduct” in Foreign Affairs,’ wrote Edward Luce in the Financial Times in 2018.

  • ‘The piece, which crystallised America’s cold war containment strategy, was the making of George F Kennan’s life-long reputation as a master of geopolitics.’
  • ‘As the architect of a doctrine that won the cold war.’

In the past few years, there has been no shortage of folks trying to come up with that simple, ‘crystallized,’ Kennan-like doctrine from which all U.S. policy toward China could be organized.

  • No one has come close.

As Mr. Luce notes:

  • ‘America is desperate for the kind of strategic nous Kennan once personified.’
  • ‘A few years ago we may have looked to people such as Zbigniew Brzezinski or Henry Kissinger to offer some kind of answer.’
  • ‘The first is dead and the second places too high a value on his access to Trump, Putin, Xi Jinping and others, to risk plain talk.’

‘We need new minds.’

  • ‘All of us in Washington can point to dozens of smart foreign policy specialists in their own fields.’

‘But where is the grand strategist?’

  • Where indeed.

2. Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ is no 'Long Telegram'

Every so often I re-read Mr. Kennan’s ‘Long Telegram’ (excerpts below in ‘4. A Look Back to 1947 & “X” ’).

  • Each time I am struck by the brilliance of the analysis and the powerful simplicity of the ‘containment’ doctrine.
  • And each time, like a mathematician trying to solve some centuries’ old conundrum, I try to come up with the same kind of solution for U.S. strategy for China. No luck.
  • But if I ever were to come up with an idea, I wouldn’t consider publishing with any mention of George Kennan.

So it takes a lot of chutzpah to call your tract the ‘Longer Telegram’ (vice the ‘Long Telegram’) and to sign it ‘Anonymous’ (vice ‘X’).

  • And I was expecting something pretty terrific.
  • But invoking the spirit of Vice-presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen: ‘Anonymous, you’re no X.’

My take on what the big idea is is the same as Paul Heer’s. He wrote in The National Interest:

  • “All U.S. political and policy responses to China therefore should be focused through the principal lens of Xi himself”—is the author’s conclusion.’
  • ‘Washington should be seeking to escape from, and even try to effect the removal of, Xi’s leadership because that could restore U.S.-China relations to a potentially constructive path: “its pre-2013 path—i.e., the pre-Xi strategic status quo.” ’
  • ‘Washington should do this by directing its strategy “at the internal fault lines of domestic Chinese politics” because “the party is extremely divided on Xi’s leadership,” and particularly on his foreign policy assertiveness:’
  • ‘ “Xi’s critics contend that [his] ‘forcing of the pace’ has resulted in Beijing taking unnecessary risks by bringing about a fundamental change in U.S. strategy toward China much earlier than was either necessary or desirable.” ’

Mr. Heer continues:

  • ‘One of the author’s central premises is that “if leadership change were to occur, it would be more likely to move in the direction of a more moderate collective leadership” that would be easier for Washington to work with, and presumably less assertive and confrontational toward the United States.’
  • ‘ “If leadership change does not occur, then the objective is to maximize internal political pressures on Xi to moderate Chinese policy of his own volition or to roll back various of his international initiatives.” ’

A far cry from the elegance of ‘containment.’ And, as Mr. Heer argues, also:

  • ‘Perhaps the most problematic aspect of the “Longer Telegram's” emphasis on Xi.’

‘This is a profoundly misguided if not dangerous approach.’

  • ‘First, it almost certainly miscalculates (by exaggerating) the potential differences between Xi and any alternative leadership on the core issues in U.S.-China relations, or on the overall direction of Chinese foreign policy.’
  • ‘In addition, it would be a hazardous venture for Washington to attempt to exploit the internal fault lines of Chinese politics and play one faction or leader off against another.’
  • ‘This is precisely the kind of “intervention in China’s internal affairs” that fuels the visceral nationalism of Chinese leaders,’
  • ‘Such a venture almost certainly is more likely to be counterproductive than to yield the desired result of accommodation to U.S. goals.’

For me, though, despite some very good analysis, the Longer Telegram fails because it lacks the single organizing principle from which a comprehensive strategy could be developed and implemented.’

  • That Anonymous, along with so many others, didn’t succeed perhaps points to the complexity of the U.S. relationship with China within China itself.
  • In that case, we wait for our George Kennan in vain.
  • And Anonymous, if he cares about his/her reputation, will remain so.

Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ or any other proposed China strategy won’t make any difference

Whatever the merits or otherwise of the Longer Telegram, it has, as George Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council which published the essay, notes caused a stir:

  • 'The fierce global debate set off this week by a thought-provoking paper – “The Longer Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy” – has underscored the urgency and difficulty of framing a durable and actionable U.S. approach to China as the country grows more authoritarian, more self-confident and more globally assertive.'
  • 'The 26,000-word paper, published simultaneously by the Atlantic Council and in shorter form by Politico Magazine, has served as a sort of Rorschach test for the expert community on China.'
  • 'The reactions have ranged between critics, who found the paper’s prescriptions too provocative, to proponents, who lauded its ground-breaking contributions.'

'Beijing took notice, not least because of the author’s apparent familiarity with Communist party politics and focus on President Xi Jinping.'

  • 'China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused the anonymous author of “dark motives and cowardliness” aimed at inciting “a new Cold War.” '

While I acknowledge that anything that engenders serious debate about how the U.S. should manage its relationship with China is a good thing, I also acknowledge that neither the Longer Telegram nor any other proposal will make a whit of difference in the Biden team’s approach.

  • As covered in our last issue, the Biden team is already working off the same playbook on China.

And this week, the Boss confirmed it in his first foreign policy address. Regarding China, President Biden said:

  • “And we’ll also take on directly the challenges posed by our prosperity, security, and democratic values by our most serious competitor, China.”  
  • “We’ll confront China’s economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”
  • “But we are ready to work with Beijing when it’s in America’s interest to do so.  We will compete from a position of strength by building back better at home, working with our allies and partners, renewing our role in international institutions, and reclaiming our credibility and moral authority, much of which has been lost.”
  • “That’s why we’ve moved quickly to begin restoring American engagement internationally and earn back our leadership position, to catalyze global action on shared challenges.”

Maybe not George Kennan; but no doubt about the approach either.

CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue. Including an article here does not imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

August 24, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
keep reading
July 23, 2023
‘The U.S. Has Tactics, But No China Strategy’ | Bill Zarit
‘The U.S. needs national review of outward investment to China, but it has to be narrow and targeted and done in conjunction with our allies and partners.’
keep reading
July 10, 2023
‘Is Xi Coup-proof?’ (after the march on Moscow, I have to ask)
What about the guys without guns? So if Mr. Xi doesn’t face a rogue army or a military coup… How about a coup by Party elites?
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'TSMC faces pressure to choose a side in US-China tech war'
‘Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has maintained its historic position of neutrality, reflected in the company’s strategy of “being everyone’s foundry”.’
keep reading
April 14, 2021
The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World
In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
keep reading
April 13, 2021
'2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community'
‘China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms.’
keep reading
April 13, 2021
In Battle With U.S. for Global Sway, China Showers Money on Europe’s Neglected Areas
‘The number of freight trains running between China and Europe topped 12,400 last year, 50% higher than in 2019 and seven times that of 2016, according to Chinese authorities.’
keep reading
April 11, 2021
'Why manufacturing matters to economic superpowers'
‘Whether such reshoring matters for national economies depends very much on the industry.’
keep reading
April 11, 2021
China in Jamie Dimon's Letter to Shareholders
‘China does not have a straight road to becoming the dominant economic power’.
keep reading
April 11, 2021
'Alibaba’s rivals on alert after China’s regulators hand out record fine'
“Everyone with a clear mind won't self-regulate, you just pretend that you do. Who will pay for the loss if you lost your competitive advantage because you self-regulated and others didn't?”
keep reading
April 10, 2021
Alibaba: 'Promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy'
‘From the perspective of the long-term and healthy development of the platform economy, regulation by law and support for development are not contradictory, but are complementary and mutually reinforcing.'
keep reading
April 9, 2021
'The Best Explanation of Biden’s Economic Thinking I’ve Heard'
‘When President Biden’s thinking about the infrastructure investments necessary, a lot of it is in contraposition to what he is seeing China doing in terms of strategic investments.’
keep reading
April 8, 2021
Liu Ge: Competing with China a farfetched guise for US’ infrastructure plan
‘Historically speaking, it seems the only way for the US government to make costly public investments was to create an adversary that is presumed to threaten its security.’
keep reading
April 8, 2021
'Antony Blinken interview: The secretary of state offers a window into Biden's foreign policy decisions'
‘ “Our goal is not to contain China, hold China back, keep it down,” Blinken underlined.’
keep reading
April 8, 2021
'US adds Chinese supercomputing companies to export blacklist'
‘The Biden administration took its first trade action against China on Thursday, adding seven Chinese supercomputing developers to an export blacklist for assisting Chinese military efforts in a move that will likely further escalate frosty tensions between the world's two largest economies.’
keep reading
April 7, 2021
'Remarks by President Biden on the American Jobs Plan'
‘Look, do we think the rest of world is waiting around? Take a look. Do you think China is waiting around to invest in this digital infrastructure or in research and development?’
keep reading
April 7, 2021
China: 'Power Trader'
‘The theory of power trade better explains China’s economic and trade policies than does the theory of free trade or protectionism,’
keep reading
April 6, 2021
'Train Wreck: Ultimately companies have to choose.’
MUST READ: Bill Reinsch succinctly but brilliantly summarizes the situations in China and the U.S. and between the two.
keep reading
April 6, 2021
'Buy American!': Pushing U.S. Companies to Onshore Supply Chains
The debate about how to deal with China commercially ‘has moved in two directions: running faster—improving our innovation capabilities in critical technologies to better compete with China—and slowing China down by restricting its access to U.S. technology.’
keep reading
April 4, 2021
'Why Defending Taiwan is in the U.S. National Interest'
‘As long as Washington assesses that American security is best served by defending forward—an approach that has served the United States well over the past 70 years—Taiwan’s de facto independence will remain a key US interest and driver of American policy in Asia.’
keep reading
April 4, 2021
'Why China Is Going All "Wolf Warrior," All the Time'
‘All this is to say that, living in Beijing as I do, I think the current approach is predictable and consistent with everything else we are seeing in China in the New Era.’
keep reading
April 3, 2021
'With Swarms of Ships, Beijing Tightens Its Grip on South China Sea'
‘Not long ago, China asserted its claims on the South China Sea by building and fortifying artificial islands in waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'Genesis Celebrates Launch In China With Dazzling, World Record-breaking Drone Show Over Shanghai's Iconic Skyline'
'The spectacular visuals were coordinated to present the world of Genesis, delivering an audacious storytelling concept while also breaking the Guinness World Records for "The Most Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) airborne simultaneously".’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
Mo' Infrastructure, Mo' Problems Copy
‘China’s reliance on building roads, railways and airports to support growth has caused a spike in debt, with some of that money funneled into unnecessary infrastructure and uneconomic boondoggle developments.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
How Does the U.S. Compare to China?
Two reports from Bloomberg – ‘Biden Starts Infrastructure Bet With U.S. Far Behind China’ and ‘Biden’s Biggest-Ever Investment Plan for U.S. Still Trails China’ – highlight a few of the differences.
keep reading
April 2, 2021
USTR | '2021 National Trade Estimate Report on FOREIGN TRADE BARRIERS'
‘Made in China 2025 seeks to build up Chinese companies in the ten targeted, strategic sectors at the expense of, and to the detriment of, foreign industries and their technologies through a multi-step process over ten years.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
‘2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure’
‘The 2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure reveals we’ve made some incremental progress toward restoring our nation’s infrastructure.’ ‘For the first time in 20 years, our infrastructure is out of the D range. America's Infrastructure Scores a C-.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'US to make it easier for diplomats to meet Taiwanese officials'
'Plan to loosen restrictions on contacts with Taipei threatens to provoke China.'
keep reading
April 2, 2021
Biden Starts Infrastructure Bet With U.S. Far Behind China
Even though he didn’t rely solely on the China challenge to justify his new American Jobs Plan; devoted to infrastructure and more, President Biden certainly he had China in his sights. Because as Jonathan Hillman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote“The United States is entering what could be a decades-long competition in which economic and technological power will matter just as much, if not more, than military might.” “Starting this race with decaying infrastructure is like lining up for a marathon with a broken ankle.”
keep reading
April 2, 2021
President Biden Lays Out His ‘American Jobs’ Plan
‘It has become a cliché in U.S. policy circles that the best China policy is to invest in core U.S. capabilities: education, infrastructure, and research and development,’ writes Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University in ‘How to Craft a Durable China Strategy,’ in Foreign Affairs.
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'China’s Dangerous Double Game in North Korea'
‘Beijing’s North Korea policy is primarily motivated by a desire to counter U.S. power in the Asia-Pacific region and increase Chinese influence on the Korean Peninsula.
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden'
‘Japan walks a narrow line as it seeks to maintain close ties with its only military ally, the U.S., while avoiding damage to economic ties with its biggest trade partner, China.
keep reading
April 1, 2021
'Convicted in Hong Kong'
‘Everyone in the former British colony understands the message being sent from Hong Kong’s new masters in Beijing:’
keep reading
April 1, 2021
'U.S. dollar at risk as China races ahead on digital yuan'
‘So why should America care about any of this?’
keep reading
April 1, 2021
PRC Foreign Ministry Response to the USTR's 'National Trade Estimate Report'
‘The accusations and slanders made by the US against China's industrial policies are groundless.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'Consumer boycotts warn of trouble ahead for Western firms in China'
‘Western executives in China cannot shake an unsettling fear that this time is different.’‘Their lucrative Chinese operations are at rising risk of tumbling into the political chasm that has opened between the West and China.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'
‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.