CHINAMacroReporter

‘The Future of China’s Past: Rising China’s Next Act'

‘By the Party’s own acknowledgment, Deng’s initial arrangement has run its course. It is therefore time to develop a new understanding that will do for the Party in the next 30 years what Deng’s program did in the previous era.'
by

Charles Horner & Eric Brown | Hudson Institute

|

The Brown Journal of International Affairs

February 20, 2021
‘The Future of China’s Past: Rising China’s Next Act'
BIG IDEA | ‘By the Party’s own acknowledgment, Deng’s initial arrangement has run its course. It is therefore time to develop a new understanding that will do for the Party in the next 30 years what Deng’s program did in the previous era. As Mao and Deng appeared at just the right moment, so too, says the Party, has its current General Secretary, Xi Jinping.’
BIG IDEA | ‘Xi has been in charge since March 2013, and the PRC has become notably different since.’
‘Political scientists were once comfortable describing the PRC as “post-totalitarian” or “authoritarian.” ’
‘Today, the term “neo totalitarian” is more appropriate, as the ruling Party builds the most technologically advanced police state ever known and escalates the repression of millions of its subjects who seek the modern political and religious rights promised under the PRC’
‘The Party also believes that its rule at home can be either strengthened or weakened by trends in the existing world order, trends it seeks to control.’

‘The Communist Party of China (CCP), since its founding in l921, has viewed itself as an ideological enterprise, led by an intellectual elite, as well as a Party of analysis and study, especially of history.’

  • ‘It declares that its conduct is directed by Marxism, a doctrine for comprehending the past and predicting the future, and by Leninism, a science for securing and then retaining political power.’

‘In the l920s and 1930s, the CCP was driven out of cities, and it faced near extinction.’

  • ‘At that point, Mao Zedong (1893–1976) offered a “correct” analysis and a new program—building the power of the Party in the countryside.

‘In the 1970s, when the regime had once again become shaky, Deng Xiaoping (1904–97) offered his own analysis and program.’

  • ‘He called it “reform and opening up,” and it was designed to connect the previously autarchical PRC to the international economy.’
  • ‘Deng’s successful program kept the Party in power for another thirty years.

‘But today, by the Party’s own acknowledgment, Deng’s initial arrangement has run its course.’

  • ‘It is therefore time to develop a new understanding that will do for the Party in the next 30 years what Deng’s program did in the previous era.’

‘As Mao and Deng appeared at just the right moment, so too, says the Party, has its current General Secretary, Xi Jinping. Xi’s doctrine, unveiled in October 2017, is known formally as “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.” ’

  • ‘In January 2018, Xi Jinping Thought was made part of the Communist Party’s constitution.’
  • ‘With Xi Jinping Thought, the Party is offering a wholly new ideological justification for the PRC’s existence, one that it says derives from authentically Chinese concepts rooted in China’s deep past, not the modern ideas it has relied on since its creation.’

‘Xi has been in charge since March 2013, and the PRC has become notably different since.’

  • ‘Political scientists were once comfortable describing the PRC as “post-totalitarian” or “authoritarian.” ’
  • ‘Today, the term “neo totalitarian” is more appropriate, as the ruling Party builds the most technologically advanced police state ever known and escalates the repression of millions of its subjects who seek the modern political and religious rights promised under the PRC’

‘The Party also believes that its rule at home can be either strengthened or weakened by trends in the existing world order, trends it seeks to control.’

  • ‘Therefore, Xi’s PRC has also launched a many-faceted assault on the post-1991 international order.’
  • It has significantly expanded its military power, which it uses to threaten the Chinese-speaking democracy in Taiwan and to press unfounded territorial claims against its neighbors in the Pacific Rim and across the Himalayas.’
  • ‘The Party is also engaged in a major propaganda effort to propound a new vision of China as a global hegemon.’

My Take

In her excellent book,  The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, Liz Economy explains posits three Chinese revolutions: Mao, Deng, and Xi.

This essay follows that pattern but with a different take. The authors provide in 16 pages the cultural as well as the historical underpinnings of each.

They also posit that a fourth revolution may be coming:

'There is yet a third contradiction, one created by the Party’s appropriation of China’s heritage, including of Confucianism..
'One senses this is an embrace born of desperation, of a need to re-write the history of the PRC yet again, for the Party to explain itself once more to the many peoples it rules. In this, the Party is not likely to succeed, and it will thus face a stark choice between two “China Models.”
One is the way of Xi Jinping—more repression and ethno-nationalism at home and an unceasing manufacturing of international tensions.
The other way, of course, is the way of those Chinese who see the universal in their past, and who compete for self-betterment and advantage and the respect of other nations in the modern world, not against the world. This would require a transition from the PRC III to a proto-democratic PRC IV.'

After three revolutions, the idea of a fourth may not be so far-fetched. Stay tuned.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 3, 2021
'Coup a further complication for tricky Myanmar-China ties'
‘Even if China played no role at all in ousting Suu Kyi, Beijing is likely to gain still greater sway over the country.’
keep reading
February 3, 2021
‘Beijing Won’t Let America “Compartmentalize” Climate Change'
‘‘You want China to take action on climate change?" asks Xi Jinping. "Let’s talk about what you’re going to give to get it.’’
keep reading
February 3, 2021
Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition
In today’s issue: 1. China Lays Out Its Position / 2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position / 3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition / 4. Burma or Myanmar?
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper folds under government pressure'
Apple Daily was much more than a newspaper. To its fans, it was a defender of freedoms. To its foes, it was the defiler of national sovereignty.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong
Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
keep reading
June 20, 2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
keep reading
June 20, 2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
'Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point'
‘The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
'Meet the New Chinese Economy, Same as the Old Chinese Economy'
If a recovery led by investment in real estate and industrial production, with consumption lagging behind, sounds familiar, it may be because the same could be said of the makeup of China’s growth before Covid-19.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
Part 1 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
‘Beijing is moving swiftly to protect its factories and workplaces from rising costs.’ ‘Still, rising prices in China, by far the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, could be felt around the world.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
Bernie Sanders: 'Don’t Start a New Cold War With China'
‘The pendulum of conventional wisdom in Washington has now swung from being far too optimistic about the opportunities presented by unfettered trade with China to being far too hawkish about the threats posed by the richer, stronger, more authoritarian China that has been one result of that increased trade.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
Part 2 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
“Is China exporting inflation? In renminbi terms, it’s not so obvious. But in U.S. dollar terms, it starts to get more sizable.” ’
keep reading
June 13, 2021
'Forget about China': Clyde Prestowitz
Clyde Prestowitz has influenced U.S. foreign trade and investment policy for many decades, both inside and outside government.
keep reading
June 9, 2021
'Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win'
‘Biden worries that China is in competition for America, and not only that—they might win. This belief underpins the Biden doctrine.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
'From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening democratic cooperation for today's challenges'
‘A “Democratic-10” or “D-10” is aimed at rallying the world’s most powerful democracies around a common cause— advancing a rules-based democratic order based on shared values and common interests.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
Biden Worries China Might Win
‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
Joe Biden: 'My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies'
‘This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world?’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
'NATO & China's Challenges to Europe'
‘Even though China does not pose a direct military threat to NATO, contrary to Russia or terrorist groups, Beijing’s growing economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness in Europe coupled with its growing military relationship with Russia do have major implications for the transatlantic economy as well as its security.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
5 | Two Caveats
‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'
‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
keep reading
June 3, 2021
4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy
‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
6 | The Risks & the Dangers
‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
2 | Blame It on Xi
‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’
‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
keep reading
June 3, 2021
Killing China's Grand Strategy
Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
keep reading
May 30, 2021
'Final Thoughts'
'Just as Brzezinski foresaw the two new contending blocs –– requiring greater “geostrategic skill” –– that are forming today, Kissinger has emphasized the unprecedented dangers that AI could introduce into a divided world.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
China's ‘Anti-Hegemonist Bloc’
‘To counter U.S. coalition building, China has enhanced its diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with both Russia and Iran in recent months, resulting in the closest ties these countries have had in the post-Cold War era.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
Postscript: China Doubts U.S. Allies Support
'Chinese leadership is also cynical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led Cold War-style bloc.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
Biden’s ‘Anti-China Bloc’
‘Throughout President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, his administration has largely continued the Trump administration’s hawkish approach toward China.’ ‘President Biden has also made international coalition building to confront the growing power and influence of China his primary foreign policy initiative.’ ‘Chinese leaders and the public are not convinced by the statements recently made by President Biden that these U.S.-led alliances are “not anti-Chinese” and that the United States is “not looking for confrontation” with China.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy
And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
keep reading
May 30, 2021
Worse for China than Trump
‘Many Chinese now believe that the Biden administration could be more detrimental to U.S.-China relations than the Trump administration.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
'Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?'
‘Senior officials on the foreign policy team have frequently emphasized three “C” words: competition, cooperation, and confrontation.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
The Trump Legacy
‘From Beijing’s perspective, the hawkish approach to China in the final year of the Trump administration revealed that the Trump team sought to defeat and destroy China in much the same way that the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.