CHINAMacroReporter

South China Sea & Taiwan

'It would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'
by

|

CHINADebate

May 2, 2020
South China Sea & Taiwan

SOUTH CHINA SEA

1. SOUTH CHINA SEA: China's Claims

2. SOUTH CHINA SEA: China's Energy Intimidation

TAIWAN

1. TAIWAN: China Ramps Up Intimidation

2. TAIWAN: Is Now the Time for China to Invade?

3. TAIWAN: Could China Conquer Taiwan?

4. TAIWAN: Will the U.S. Defend Taiwan?

SOUTH CHINA SEA

1. SOUTH CHINA SEA: China's Claims

For more on China's claims, read the 501- page ruling, 'IN THE MATTER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARBITRATION.'

'It would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'

Malcolm Riddell: ‘How do the Chinese justify their claims in the South China Sea?’

Bonnie Glaser: ‘The Chinese have never really made clear - I would say they are deliberately ambiguous - about what their claims are.’

  • ‘So it would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'
  • 'And that applies to the Nine-Dash-Line (above) that China uses to assert sovereignty.’

‘The Chinese have said the South China Sea is historically theirs, based on their discovery of the islands, their naming of the islands, they're using of the islands.’

  • ‘The Chinese have asserted that because they were there first, that they have rights to fish or rights to energy, regardless where those take place in the South China sea.’

‘But the Philippines brought a suit against China disputing its claims.’

  • ‘And a July 2016 ruling by an arbitral tribunal, formed under the Convention on the Law of the Sea, found in favor of the Philippines; China rejected the ruling.’

‘Among other things, the tribunal found.’

  • ‘that China's “Nine-Dash Line” is invalid.’
  • ‘that historic rights - in this particular instance in the Spratlys - is not the basis for a legal claim.’
  • ‘that China’s assertion of a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone around these land features because they were islands is invalid.’

'So, the most China can claim now is in accordance with this ruling, even though it rejected it.’

  • ‘The Chinese are trying to come up with a claim of 12 nautical miles of exclusive territorial sea around the islands - not a blatant violation.’
  • ‘The United States challenges even these claims by sailing inside and through them.’

2. SOUTH CHINA SEA: China's Energy Intimidation

from the ASIA MARITIME TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE, CSIS

‘When any of these countries has tried to survey for oil or drill for oil, China has very quickly responded and intimidated them from doing so.’

Malcolm Riddell: ‘What is China’s position on oil & gas exploration and drilling in the South China Sea?’

Bonnie Glaser: ‘China considers the South China sea to be a core interest.’

  • ‘We have seen over the last few years that China is pursuing its objective of gaining control over activities in the South China sea.’

‘In most instances, the Chinese are relying on paramilitary forces and maritime militia really to advance their administrative control and to prevent other countries - other claimants in the region – from developing new oil and gas sources.’

  • ‘The countries that are really the targets are the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.’

‘When any of these countries has tried to survey for oil or drill for oil, China has very quickly responded and intimidated them from doing so.’

  • ‘This is really to signal that China is no longer going to tolerate anything other than joint development.’
  • ‘If a country wants to survey for oil or drill, it's going to have to do so jointly with a state-run Chinese company.’

Malcolm: ‘How does China intimidate these countries?’

Bonnie: ‘Well, for example, in the last just a couple of months we’ve yet another episode of China's intimidation taking place off the coast of Malaysia.’

  • ‘Here’s what is happening.’

‘In December, a Malaysian state-run energy company contracted a vessel to explore two areas in the South China Sea, off the Malaysian coast, where has an extended continental shelf claim.‘

  • ‘This is in an area that is claimed not only by Malaysia but also by China and Vietnam. Both China of those countries sent ships.’

‘The Chinese sent a survey ship, the Hai Yang Di Zhi 8.’

  • ‘This ship is well-known.’
  • ‘Last year, it was operating last year off the coast of Vietnam, surveying inside of Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, because China was angry about drilling operations that were going on off the coast of Vanguard Bank.’

‘The United States has sent two Navy ships over the past week to these waters near Malaysia.’

  • ‘There is a report that these ships are operating within 50 nautical miles of the Malaysian ship that's there.’

‘The United States doesn't take a position on sovereignty in the South China sea in any of these sovereignty disputes – other than supporting the arbitral tribunal’s ruling in favor of the Philippines again China.’

  • ‘But this is a rare moment where the United States has signaled that it is concerned about Chinese bullying.’
  • ‘We saw once in 2014, the United States had sent a reconnaissance plane, a PA to overfly Second Thomas Shoal when the Chinese were intimidating the Philippines.’
  • ‘Thatwas a very far over a land feature, not a Navy ship close by.’

TAIWAN

1. TAIWAN: China Ramps Up Intimidation

‘Ever since President Tsai Ing-wen was reelected in Taiwan in January, we have seen Beijing ramp up pressure on Taiwan both diplomatically and militarily.’

Malcolm Riddell: ‘What are you seeing in Taiwan cross-strait relations these days?’

Bonnie Glaser: ‘Ever since President Tsai Ing-wen was reelected in Taiwan in January, we have seen Beijing ramp up pressure on Taiwan both diplomatically and militarily.’

‘On the diplomatic side, Taiwan has done a pretty good job of combating COVID-19 and has done so with technology and without shutting down schools or businesses – and is using this to promote itself.’

  • ‘That has led Beijing to be quite concerned about international support for Taiwan to rejoin the World Health Assembly, where it used to be an observer, and about international support expanding more broadly.’
  • ‘Within China, I expect the government is blocking information about Taiwan success - it doesn’t want people in China to see that a Chinese-organized society and democratic polity like Taiwan has been successful.’

‘On the military side, we are seeing a lot more Chinese military exercises against Taiwan.'

  • ‘New things, like the first ever 36-hour endurance nighttime exercise held by the PLA air force.’
  • ‘And large numbers of Chinese aircraft are crossing the centerline in the Taiwan Strait.
  • ‘All in all, a much higher volume and tempo of activities than we had seen prior to the election.'

2. TAIWAN: Is Now the Time for China to Invade?

‘I do not believe that China is going to seize U.S. distraction from the pandemic to invade Taiwan.’

Malcolm Riddell: ‘With the United States and the world distracted by the pandemic, do you see a potential for China to take advantage of to ramp up intimidation on Taiwan or even invade?’

Bonnie Glaser: ‘The U.S. military is mindful of the fact that the PLA might see that its preparedness is not quite what it usually is, given the large number of infections that we've seen in the U.S. military.’

  • ‘And there has been some signaling going on to the PLA to not take advantage of this situation and not miscalculate.’

‘One example:There have been two U.S. Navy transits through the Taiwan Strait already this month [April] - usually they're held once a month.’

  • ‘The Trump administration has made these public – in contrast, the Obama administration did not.’
  • ‘We also saw the B-52 bomber flights after some of the rather provocative Chinese military exercises that were taking place earlier this month.’

‘I do not believe that China is going to seize this opportunity to invade Taiwan.’

  • ‘The risks to China remain quite high, and there is no guarantee that the PLA will succeed.'
  • ‘Also Xi Jinping is consumed with domestic challenges.’

‘That said, I do think that China sees an opportunity to intimidate Taiwan more now - which is what they are doing.’

  • ‘We also see examples of this in Hong Kong and in the South China Sea.’
  • ‘So China’s bullying and intimidation are not limited to Taiwan.’

3. TAIWAN: Could China Conquer Taiwan?

'It's very hard to take over an island - that's of course what Taiwan is.’

Malcolm Riddell: ‘It was conventional wisdom for a great deal of my life, but China didn't possess the capabilities even if it had the will to retake Taiwan. What do you think now?’

Bonnie Glaser: ‘If you just look at the military balance between China and Taiwan, there is no doubt that China has military superiority.’

  • ‘But it's very hard to take over an island - that's of course what most of Taiwan is.’
  • ‘The largest island China could seize is Jinmen or Matsu. It might go after Taiping Island, which is the one land feature that Taiwan occupies in the South China Sea.’
  • ‘But taking over the island of Taiwan itself would be difficult for China.’

‘They are making progress but are still lagging behind in some capabilities.’

  • ‘In amphibious landing capabilities they're definitely catching up - for a while it wasn't a PLA priority, but now it is.’  
  • ‘China would be able to prevent Taiwan from dominating the airspace - it can probably take out Taiwan's fighter fleet. But if Taiwan continues to build its capabilities, for example, in numbers of surface-to-air missiles, it could prevent China from gaining that military superiority in the airspace.’
  • ‘China as good anti-submarine warfare capabilities, which would be against the United States, but also Taiwan.’

‘But even if the Chinese were able to land on the beach and somehow establish control, what would it take to control the entire island? Would there be an insurgency?’

  • ‘Maybe we need to draw some lessons from the protests in Hong Kong.’

‘The young people in Hong Kong are willing to stand up for their freedom. They've been willing to fight in the streets.’

  • ‘Some people think that the young people in Taiwan would not. I'm not so sure.’

‘The young people in Taiwan have grown up in a free society (which of course has only existed since really around 1990).’

  • ‘I think that maybe people – young and old - would fight in order to preserve it.’

4. TAIWAN: Will the U.S. Defend Taiwan?

‘That is my fervent hope.’

Malcolm Riddell: ‘If China did invade Taiwan, what would the U.S. do?’

Bonnie Glaser: ‘There are several factors that that might precipitate a U.S. intervention.’

  • ‘But we'd have to consider how this conflict started.’

‘If it were unprovoked and the Chinese just out of the blue decided we're impatient, we want to take over Taiwan, now is the time.’

  • ‘Yes, I think that the United States would come to Taiwan.’  
  • ‘It becomes a little bit more complicated if Taiwan has taken an action that provoked Beijing - perhaps an action that the United States even discouraged Taiwan from taking.’

‘The other factor is the American public's attitudes towards China - we don't know if Americans would really support the us coming to the defense of Taiwan.’

  • ‘In the past, public opinion polls have not shown that a vast majority of Americans would support it.’
  • ‘But today, we can look at the most recent poll this week showing that 66% of Americans now have a negative view of China.’
  • ‘Now, maybe that is to some extent specific to the COVID-19 So we'll have to see if that holds.’  

‘The strongest advocate of coming to Taiwan's defense is going to be the U.S. Congress.’

  • ‘And they matter.’

‘So I'm of the view that - given the trajectory of American attitudes towards China, and if Taiwan continues to elect leaders, like its current president, who are unprovocative and are just trying to preserve the status quo and Taiwan's autonomy - it is very likely that the U.S. government, Congress, and  American people would support intervention on Taiwan's behalf if China attacked.’

Malcolm Riddell: ‘That is my fervent hope.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 23, 2021
HSBC offers lesson in corporate realpolitik
‘HSBC’s Asia pivot is a lesson in corporate realpolitik. It is just as much a recognition of the new political reality facing every western company that is dependent on doing business with China. Businesses will have to choose between western markets and access to China, and between liberal and authoritarian value systems.’
keep reading
February 23, 2021
Germany Is a Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War
'As goes Germany, so goes Europe — and that’s a real challenge for the U.S. Berlin leads a European bloc that could cast a geopolitical swing vote in the U.S.-China rivalry.’
keep reading
February 22, 2021
Remaking “Made in China”: Beijing’s Industrial Internet Ambitions
‘The Chinese government is placing large bureaucratic and financial bets on upgrading and digitizing its already dominant manufacturing base. Such efforts have coalesced around one key term: the “industrial internet” (工业互联网). The successful application of it across Chinese industry would prolong and elevate the “Made in China” era.’
keep reading
March 9, 2017
So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story
[CHINADebate Presentation] One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.—Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?
keep reading
February 27, 2017
Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?
'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. as a global leader anytime soon.'—Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?' Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S. What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S. So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet?
keep reading
February 15, 2017
C-to-C Internet Commerce- From Taobao Shops to Taobao Villages
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
Why SOE Reform is So Tough
'...SOEs need to reform, because on one hand, many of them have achieved a lot for China. On the other hand, they've actually created quite a lot of harm, in particular in the areas of overcapacity but also in the areas of corruption we've talked about.'
keep reading
February 2, 2017
AmCham China Chairmen's View From China in D.C. 2017
[AmCham China & CHINADebate U.S.—China Trade/Business Series 2017] Terrific insights from leaders on the ground in China. While in D.C. the Chairmen joined us in a panel discussion and individual interviews about U.S. business in China, U.S.-China relations, trade, and much more. We present their views in a 13 part series. Sheryl WuDunn, business executive, lecturer, best-selling author, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize moderated.
keep reading
February 1, 2017
'Chinese Politics In The Xi Jinping Era'
[Malcolm Riddell Interviewed Cheng Li] 'If you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy – which leader belongs to which faction. : 'China is a one–party state, but that does not necessarily mean Chinese leadership is a monolithic group with leaders who have the same ideas, same background, same world views, same politics. No, they're divided.'
keep reading
December 7, 2016
First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China
The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
keep reading
October 18, 2016
How Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent are Changing the Rules of Business
[An Interview of Ed Tse, the author of 'China's Disruptors: Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent... how innovative 'Disruptor' companies are restructuring China's economy.' ] The real force in Chinese economy is increasingly private companies, not SOEs. / Leading private Chinese companies are innovative and ambitious
keep reading
July 14, 2016
How 'Brexit' Will Impact China's Economy
David Dollar gives you fresh insights to better incorporate Brexit's impact into your analyses of China and global economies & markets, including: 1. Why, after the Brexit vote, did the Shanghai Stock Market fall only 1%? 2. How will Brexit affect the value of the RMB and China's currency policy? 3. How will Brexit impact trade with the EU, China’s largest trading partner? 4. Why, in the larger geopolitical perspective, could China be the big winner from Brexit?
keep reading
July 2, 2016
China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?
100s of Cities Bubble Up & Down As Policy Makers Press the Levers China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities. Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.