CHINAMacroReporter

So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story

[CHINADebate Presentation] One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.—Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?
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CHINADebate

March 9, 2017
So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story
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CHINAMacroReporter

February 18, 2021
'Like It Or Not, America Is Still A Superpower'
‘The twentieth century was littered with the carcasses of foreign leaders and governments that misjudged the United States, from Germany (twice) and Japan to the Soviet Union to Serbia to Iraq. Perhaps the Chinese, careful students of history that they are, will not make the mistake that others have made in misjudging the United States.’
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February 16, 2021
'Is China experiencing an advance of the state sector?'
‘The value-added produced by state-owned enterprises has usually been in the range of 25-30% of China’s GDP. And what’s really striking about those numbers is that they just haven’t changed very much over the past 25 years. The share of China’s economic output being produced by SOEs today, under Xi Jinping, is not significantly different than it was under Hu Jintao, or even in the later years of Jiang Zemin.’
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February 16, 2021
‘China Blocked Jack Ma’s Ant IPO After Investigation Revealed Likely Beneficiaries’
‘Behind layers of opaque investment vehicles that own stakes in Ant Financial are a coterie of well-connected Chinese power players, including some with links to political families that represent a potential challenge to President Xi and his inner circle. Those individuals, along with Mr. Ma and the company’s top managers, stood to pocket billions of dollars from a listing that would have valued the company at more than $300 billion.’
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March 31, 2021
Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries
‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
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March 31, 2021
'The Threat the U.S. Isn't Answering'
‘If BRI meets little competition or resistance, Beijing could become the hub of global trade, set important technical standards that would disadvantage non-Chinese companies, lock countries into carbon-intensive power generation, have greater influence over countries’ political decisions, and acquire more power-projection capabilities for its military.’
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March 31, 2021
'China Is Missing from the Great Inflation Debate'
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March 31, 2021
'Dominating the Digital Silk Road'
‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports the Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’
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March 31, 2021
'Biden administration maintains Trump policy on Hong Kong'
'State department concludes territory should not receive preferential treatment under US law.'
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March 31, 2021
'China Owns, Partially Owns, or Operates 93 Ports'
‘Chinese firms own, partially own, or operate at least ninety-three ports across the globe.’
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March 30, 2021
'Profit or principle is the hard choice for foreign companies in China' George Magnus
‘Business risks for foreign companies in China are increasing after the recent exchange of sanctions between Beijing and western governments.’‘For foreign companies in China, the options seem delicately balanced. If they stand up for principles, they may put revenues at risk and will incur extra costs as they develop new supply chains. Yet if they prioritise their China profits, they could do irretrievable damage to their brands at home and in other markets, falling foul of shareholders and changing governance requirements.’‘It is an invidious choice but the latter is likely to be far more damaging to longer term performance and earnings, and corrosive of trust in the brand.’
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March 30, 2021
'How China keeps stumbling on the global stage' John Pomfret
‘Across the globe, Xi’s diplomatic representatives in Europe, Beijing, Hong Kong, Canada, Australia and elsewhere, are lifting up rocks and smashing their own feet.’‘The moves are befuddling — with a buoyant economy and a practically covid-free country, China is poised to see its influence rise if it plays it smart. But it’s not; instead, it’s alienating individuals and nations across the world.’‘I’ve been studying China for my entire adult life and I have to admit to being bewildered by China’s performance.’‘But I’m in good company. Thirty-one years ago, the great political scientist Lucian Pye wrote, “Just when all appears to be going well, Chinese officials create problems for seemingly unaccountable reasons.” ’
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March 30, 2021
'An Alliance of Autocracies? China Wants to Lead a New World Order.'
‘The world is increasingly dividing into distinct if not purely ideological camps, with both China and the United States hoping to lure supporters.’
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March 29, 2021
'Global Cycle Notes: U-Turn': China
‘A U-shaped recovery in the services sector beckons, but it’s still difficult to describe just what it will look like. No event in economic history compares, and the range of outcomes for wages, prices, employment, and financial markets is large.’
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March 28, 2021
‘At a Crossroads: The Next Chapter for FinTech in China’
‘As financial innovation has gained traction and the firms driving it have grown into sizeable players, the dynamic between innovators and regulators has begun to shift. Regulatory agencies have started to be more proactive in supervising the activities of technology firms after realizing that the size of many technology firms and FinTechs means they could threaten financial stability and peace in society if their innovation efforts and business practices were overly aggressive.’
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March 28, 2021
'New Trade Representative Says U.S. Isn’t Ready to Lift China Tariffs'
'The U.S. isn’t ready to lift tariffs on Chinese imports in the near future, but might be open to trade negotiations with Beijing, according to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.'
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March 28, 2021
China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it
After the National People’s Congress, ‘election reform’ in Hong Kong, the dustup between the U.S. and China in Anchorage, and China’s going all ‘Wolf Warrior’ on the EU, that’s not such a bad thing.
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March 26, 2021
Beijing Targets American Business-2
'American businessmen, wishing for simple, lucrative commercial ties, have long resisted viewing U.S.-China relations as an ideological struggle. But strategic guidance issued by the leaders of both countries make clear the matter is settled: The ideological dimension of the competition is inescapable, even central.'
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March 26, 2021
'H&M, Nike Pay With China Boycotts on Xinjiang Human Rights Stance'
‘While both Western and Asian companies have frequently been targets of Chinese nationalism over the years, the latest flurry signals a shift in strategy by President Xi Jinping’s government as it confronts a more unified approach from the U.S. and its allies.’
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March 26, 2021
'The Illiberal Tide'
But even more problematic is that the reporting on any given action by another country may look so benign to the non-Chinese reader that he or she dismisses it as something China, even when it reacts forcefully, couldn’t be serious about. That is a mistake. Too often what looks ‘benign’ to the rest of the world is as serious as a train wreck to Xi Jinping.
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March 26, 2021
Beijing Targets American Business-1
‘Beijing’s message is unmistakable: You must choose.’‘If you want to do business in China, it must be at the expense of American values. ‘‘You will meticulously ignore the genocide of ethnic and religious minorities inside China’s borders; you must disregard that Beijing has reneged on its major promises—including the international treaty guaranteeing a “high degree of autonomy” for Hong Kong; and you must stop engaging with security-minded officials in your own capital unless it’s to lobby them on Beijing’s behalf.’
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March 25, 2021
China Goes All 'Wolf Warrior' on the U.S. & the EU
Today is the Tracker’s first issue. Covered here are two events where China went all 'Wolf Warrior' first on the U.S. and then on the EU.
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March 25, 2021
3 | China explains why it is going all 'Wolf Warrior' on the EU
China has found that bullying works a lot of the time, Why is China engaging in "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy
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March 25, 2021
2 | In Anchorage, Yang Spoke for the Party Leadership
‘Yang's temper tantrum has been interpreted by some commentators as being all about Chinese domestic politics. But it would be a mistake to see Yang's performance as mere bluster designed for home consumption. In Anchorage, he was speaking for the top leadership of the Communist Party.’
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March 25, 2021
2 | More to come?
‘This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully.’
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March 25, 2021
1 | Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties
'Mr. Yang, also noted “important disagreements” remained, and in remarks to Chinese state media suggested Beijing wouldn’t back down.'
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March 25, 2021
1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China
"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."
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March 24, 2021
'There Will Not Be a New Cold War' Thomas Christensen
‘China’s vital position in the global production chain and the lack of struggle for ideological supremacy between authoritarianism and liberal democracy mean that the rise of a new Cold War is unlikely.’
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March 21, 2021
Just About in Place
To help us understand the makeup of the team, The Wire China has put together a great chart with bios of each member.
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March 21, 2021
'A Taiwan Crisis May End the American Empire' Niall Ferguson
‘No matter what other issues Kissinger raised — Vietnam, Korea, the Soviets — Zhou steered the conversation back to Taiwan, “the only question between us two.” ’
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March 20, 2021
'After the protests - China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it'
‘The old Hong Kong is gone. Judge Mr Xi’s China by what it builds in its place.’
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March 17, 2021
How to Meet the China Challenge
How the Biden administration characterizes the China – strategic competitor, rival, enemy, and the like – and how it develops strategies – containment, confrontation, competition, cooperation, or some combination of these - will have an impact, to a greater or lesser degree, on most every industry and every market.
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March 13, 2021
'China All but Ends Hong Kong Democracy With "Patriots Only" Rule'
‘The National People’s Congress on Thursday approved a drastic overhaul of election rules for Hong Kong that would most likely bar many pro-democracy politicians from competing in elections, cementing Beijing’s grip over the territory.'
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March 13, 2021
'Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget'
'Like previous years, the first day of the new National People’s Congress session was highlighted by the widely anticipated announcement of China’s 2021 defense budget. This year it is set at 1.36 trillion yuan ($209.16 billion), a 6.8 percent increase from the 1.27 trillion yuan budget set last year.’
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March 13, 2021
Xi’s Gambit: China Plans for a World Without American Technology
‘China’s new five-year plan, made public on Friday, at the National People’s Congress (NPC), called tech development a matter of national security, not just economic development, a break from the previous plan.’
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March 13, 2021
'The five-year plan's big target - A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world'
The National People’s Congress concluded on Friday, March 11. As I’ve mentioned before, analyses of the impact of the plans and policies on China and the world will start to come out in a week or two. In the meantime and to keep you immediately informed, today’s issue covers the NPC’s outcomes more generally, beginning with a full summary from The Economist.
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March 12, 2021
‘Enter the Trump Buddha'
“Trump, the Buddha of Knowing of the Western Paradise.”
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March 11, 2021
Artificial Intelligence: How to Beat China
‘China is organized, resourced, and determined to win the technology competition. AI is central to China’s global expansion, economic and military power, and domestic stability.’
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