CHINAMacroReporter

'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'

Rethinking 2020

‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’
by

Damien Ma & Houze Song | MacroPolo

|

MacroPolo

January 23, 2021
'Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped'

‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate. What has been overlookedis just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’

‘Stepping back at the end of 2020, we want to highlight two overlooked and two overhyped trends that, in our judgment, will matter greatly to China’s political economy and for how it adjusts to a dramatically changed external environment.’

Overlooked

1. ‘Closing the Curtain on the GDP Obsession Era’

‘The signs have been there, but it wasn’t until 2020 that the writing clearly appeared on the wall: GDP growth will no longer hold sway over China’s development.’

  • ‘The number of provinces that have repeatedly failed to meet national growth targets has already surged, with no apparent political consequences.’
  • ‘Xi Jinping had also signaled in April 2020 that Beijing is willing to accept regional growth divergences.’
  • ‘That likely foreshadowed what was to come in the 14th Five-Year Plan in November 2020, which was accompanied by Xi’s unprecedented explanation of why it didn’t include a specific growth target.’

‘Although some observers have noted this shift on GDP, its significance may be underappreciated.’

  • ‘It is tantamount to simultaneously reshaping political incentives, changing the investment-driven model, and redirecting focus toward de-risking and reforming the economy.’
  • ‘In short, the Xi administration has been unexpectedly tolerant of austerity—a precondition for ramming through very difficult structural reforms that are essentially growth negative in the near term.’

2. ‘Decoupling Is Everywhere Except in Reality’

‘If a single word were chosen to define US-China in 2020, “decoupling” would be a good candidate.’

  • ‘Bandied about with abandon, the term has created the perception that these highly complex supplier networks were being severed in real time.’
  • ‘What has been overlooked is just how little meaningful decoupling actually happened.’

‘Foreign businesses are just one gauge of decoupling, but they are particularly important leading indicators of shifts in supply chain ecosystems.’

  • ‘In 2020, the respective portions of US (87%) and European (89%) businesses indicating no intention to leave China are as high or even higher than they’ve been in recent years.’
  • ‘And despite the Japanese government creating a fund to help re-shore its manufacturers, only 4% of Japanese businesses said they’re definitively leaving China.’

‘Pandemic disruptions certainly weighed heavily on firms’ decisions, likely delaying drastic changes or planned investment.’

  • ‘It is also true that many companies want to diversify beyond China—some already have—to hedge against risk.’
  • ‘Nonetheless, what has actually happened on the decoupling front appears disproportionately modest relative to the attention heaped on it.’

Overhyped

1. ‘China Slams Door on The World

‘Whether it is “Made in China 2025” or “social credit,” any official neologism emanating from Beijing now gets spotlighted, scrutinized, and sometimes hyped.’

  • ‘The latest offering of “dual circulation” is no exception, with many interpreting it as China’s pivot toward withdrawal from the world.’

‘Yet when it comes to capital markets, China has gone in precisely the opposite direction, further linking itself to global capital.’

  • ‘Although market openings began around 2018 and capital inflows rose steadily since, it wasn’t until 2020 that foreign capital inflows saw a notable spike.’

‘Moreover, the inking of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal and the potential conclusion of an EU-China investment treaty hardly suggest a Beijing that is closing its doors on the world.’

‘To be sure, technology is an area in which China does want to reduce dependence on imports.’

  • ‘But even there it would be unrealistic to assume that China will achieve anything close to total indigenization.’  

2. ‘BRI Is Down but Not Out’

‘China’s overseas lending plummeted in 2019, leading some to prognosticate the death knell of the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI).’

  • ‘Yet China’s overseas lending has risen in 2020, though it has not returned to the heights seen in 2017 and 2018.’
  • ‘This makes sense as fierce internal debate and external pressure likely pushed Beijing to make necessary adjustments and curtail some of its ambitions for the BRI project.’
  • ‘But gone it is not, since Beijing rarely throws out the baby with the bathwater, particularly for a signature initiative that has Xi’s imprimatur.’

‘The 2019 lending collapse can be partly explained by the political upheaval at the China Development Bank (CDB), a major financier of BRI projects, when its former president was arrested on corruption charges.’

  • ‘As a result, the CDB’s total assets only increased by 2% in 2019.’
  • ‘But the policy bank is actively lending again, having recently committed more than $80 billion to projects under RCEP, some of which can surely be rebranded as BRI projects.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 4, 2021
Why Beijing Is Bringing Big Tech to Heel
‘Beijing’s recent antitrust efforts are motivated less by worries about the tyrannical nature of monopoly power than by the belief that China’s tech giants are insufficiently committed to promoting the goal advanced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of transformative technological innovation—and thus may be undermining the effectiveness of Chinese industrial policy.’
keep reading
February 3, 2021
'Secretary of State Antony Blinken on U.S. Policy Toward China'
‘There’s no doubt that China poses the most significant challenge to us of any other country, but it’s a complicated one.’
keep reading
February 3, 2021
'Burma’s Coup and Biden’s Choice'
‘The top U.S. priority in Asia is limiting Beijing’s ability to control independent states like Burma, which is strategically situated in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. response needs to take into account China’s regional designs.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 4 | Is China Exporting Inflation?
'‘China has its own issues. If you look at the CPI inflation, it looks more moderate. ‘If you look at the producer price inflation, it looks more severe.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?
‘The part of housing prices caused by gender-ratio imbalance is not going to go away in the medium term. But the government has ways to create volatility in the housing market.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 3 | Property 2022: Stabilization or Growth?
‘The goal is to stabilize housing prices while having housing sector grow.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-3 | Analyzing the Gender Imbalance Data
‘Compare these with graph showing the impact of the same factors on rental prices...'
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-2 | Gender Imbalance as a Driver of Housing Prices
‘Why does gender imbalance have such an outsize impact on China’s housing prices?'
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 5 | Will Xi Continue to Favor the State Over the Private Sector?
‘He wants to see a bigger role for the state in the economy. But in the last two years, he has done some course correction. For example, after talking up the role of state-owned firms and building stronger, bigger state-owned firms, he is talking about the equal importance for the private sector.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 7 | Why Did Beijing Ban Online Tutoring?
‘Each policy in isolation – whether its banning online tutoring or protecting data or enforcing anti-monopoly regulations or any other - has its rationale.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
What Are Your Top of Mind Concerns?
I asked the participants what are their top of mind concerns about China.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Getting (Xi Jingping's) Priorities Straight
How do you make investment or business decisions in the face of the uncertainties created by Xi Jinping's reshaping China's economy? In this issue, I'll give you a few different ideas on how you might deal with that uncertainty.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Look Through the Rights Lenses
Getting down more to the nitty-gritty, if you’re evaluating a sector or a company, get your lenses right to get the details right.. Stonehorn’s Sam Le Cornu gives a good example of this in a Bloomberg interview.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Sometimes You Just Have to Roll the Dice
Telling someone to align him or herself with Beijing's priorities still is generally good advice.And, when I tell you what those priorities are, I know I am right - until I'm not.
keep reading
December 7, 2021
Watch What Beijing Says - and Does
Besides listening to Xi Jinping, you can discern Beijing’s priorities and its likely actions through its big policies - and this is my point here.
keep reading
November 23, 2021
'Biden Has a Summit With Xi, but No Strategy for China'
‘Neither Taiwan nor strategic arms are a hot campaign topic, and China is not yet at the forefront of public consciousness. To ensure America’s eventual strategy is workable, political leaders need to debate the challenges so citizens can appreciate the implications of the choices they will have to make.’
keep reading
November 23, 2021
Xi Jinping's Leadership: 'The Inevitable Outcome of History'
Mr. Xi is the hero of a Resolution on the history of the Chinese Communist Party that painted his leadership as the inevitable outcome of history and all but gave him his third term. Tony Saich of the Harvard Kennedy School did a terrific analysis on this - you'll find it below, after my take.
keep reading
November 23, 2021
'Xi Jinping has made sure history is now officially on his side'
‘While there are murmurs of opposition, the historic plenary session would suggest that the future is in Xi’s hands. However, when politics is so deeply personalised and centralised, there is only one person to blame if things go wrong. Unless, of course, we get a new resolution on history that tells us who led the party astray, despite Xi’s earnest attempts to keep policy on the straight and narrow.’
keep reading
November 9, 2021
'America's China Plan: A Proposal' by Clyde Prestowitz
Outcompeting China and avoiding global extension of its authoritarian and coercive policies and practices is not really about China. It’s about America.
keep reading
October 27, 2021
Why China Won't Invade Taiwan - Yet
Forget Evergrande and the energy crunch. After the recent flurry of alarming headlines, here’s the question I get most often these days from CEO’s and institutional investors: Will China invade Taiwan in the next few years?
keep reading
October 17, 2021
An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.
‍‘Over the next six months or more, the energy crunch in China will be an even bigger challenge than Evergrande. Will make the Evergrande problem look tiny and has huge global implications. The lights go out in China!’ one experienced and very well-respected reader of long residence in China wrote to me in response the last issue on Evergrande.
keep reading
October 7, 2021
Just How Contagious is Evergrande?
Just as a personal crisis can lead you to dig deeper into yourself, so the rapid-fire events in China - with trillions of dollars of business and investment on the line - have led us to (finally) go deeper into how China works – and to come to grips with uncertainties caused by Xi Jinping’s recent moves to reshape the Chinese economy and the Party’s social contract with the Chinese people.
keep reading
September 27, 2021
'This Time Feels Different'
Just when we thought we were getting used to Xi Jinping’s tech reforms and social-engineering regulations, the Evergrande crisis heats up.
keep reading
September 19, 2021
AUKUS: A New World Order?
‍In case you passed over the news of AUKUS, the new strategic alliance among the U.S, the U.K., and Australia, here a few headlines to encourage a deeper look.
keep reading
September 7, 2021
Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.
Today's issue is a heads up on what may be Xi Jinping's efforts to reshape Chinese society.
keep reading
August 28, 2021
The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?
Breaking through the blow-by-blow reporting that started when the Taliban began its sweep to victory are the geopolitical analyses of who gains and who loses in Afghanistan.
keep reading
August 15, 2021
'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'
‘Mr. Xi is determined to bring the creators of wealth under the control of the one-party state.’
keep reading
August 15, 2021
'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'
As I write this, Taliban forces have entered Kabul and are reportedly occupying the Presidential Palace.
keep reading
August 15, 2021
China Economy: Industrial Production Down, Demand Resilient
China’s industrial production down 10%. Demand resilient.
keep reading
August 15, 2021
'China Signals More Regulation for Businesses in Coming Years'
‘The State Council’s statement provides a guiding context to interpret current regulatory thrusts. The blueprint as an attempt by Chinese authorities to help investors understand the motives behind the regulatory push.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
‘Global investors shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
'Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target'
‘While China’s policy moves can feel ad hoc particularly to foreign investors, the changes are quite targeted on certain sectors.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You
‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
keep reading
August 5, 2021
'China Wants Manufacturing—Not the Internet—to Lead the Economy'
‘Social media, e-commerce and other consumer internet companies are nice to have. But in his view national greatness doesn’t depend on having the world’s finest group chats or ride-sharing.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'Stock Market: China Doesn’t Care How Much Money Investors Lose'
‘Does Beijing not care how much money foreign investors have lost? Does the government really want to close China Inc.’s access to the deep pool of global capital? The short answer is, no, the government doesn’t care.
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'Xi's Four Pillars of Regulation'
‘Broadly, Beijing is concerned about four pillars of stability: banking, anti-trust regulation, data security and social equality. All of Beijing’s major interventions reflect these concerns.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders, and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook,’ writes Reuters’ Tom Westbrook.
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.