‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’

‘Military and material balance alone, however, will not sustain a renewed regional order.’

• ‘The stability of any international system, wrote Kissinger, ultimately relies on what he termed “generally accepted legitimacy.” ’
• ‘Any international framework needs buy-in from the powers within it.'
• ‘Here, the United States will again need to play a central role.’

‘Unlike prewar Europe, legitimacy in the Indo-Pacific is not only a matter of international politics and security.’

• ‘Trade, technology, and transnational cooperation are also vital.’

‘As Evan Feigenbaum argues, there are “two Asias” that together constitute the region’s order: one focused on politics and security and the other on economics.’

• ‘China’s territorial adventurism undermines the former, its coercive economic policies undermine the latter, and U.S. ambivalence under Trump undermines both.’

‘If those trends continue and Indo-Pacific states begin to view the current order as illegitimate, they may drift into China’s shadow.’

• ‘Were that to occur, the dynamic region might split into spheres of influence: outside powers shut out, disputes resolved through force, economic coercion the norm, U.S. alliances weakened, and smaller states without autonomy and freedom to maneuver.’

‘Reversing these trends will be challenging and require diplomatic finesse, commercial innovation, and institutional creativity on the part of U.S. policymakers.’

• ‘In the political and security realm, bolstering the present order’s legitimacy will, at minimum, require serious U.S. reengagement: an end to shaking down allies, skipping regional summits, avoiding economic engagement, and shunning transnational cooperation.’
• ‘This new posture will give the United States a greater regional role and empower Indo-Pacific states in the face of China’s growing clout.’

‘In the economic realm, strengthening the present order means ensuring the system continues to deliver material benefits for its members, even as China grows more sophisticated in its use of economic carrots and sticks.’

• ‘In contrast to prewar Europe’s negotiations, which emphasized borders and political recognition, those in the Indo-Pacific will inevitably revolve around supply chains, standards, investment regimes, and trade agreements.’

‘Even as the United States works to reshore sensitive industries and pursue a “managed decoupling” from China, it can reassure wary regional states that moving supply chains out of China will often mean shifting them to other local economies, creating new growth opportunities.’

• ‘Moreover, as China provides infrastructure financing through the Belt and Road Initiative, the United States should develop ways to provide alternative financing and technical assistance.’

‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’

• ‘Although Indo-Pacific states seek U.S. help to preserve their autonomy in the face of China’s rise, they realize it is neither practical nor profitable to exclude Beijing from Asia’s vibrant future.’
• ‘Nor do the region’s states want to be forced to “choose” between the two superpowers.’

‘A better solution would be for the United States and its partners to persuade China that there are benefits to a competitive but peaceful region organized around a few essential requirements:’

• ‘a place for Beijing in the regional order;’
• ‘Chinese membership in the order’s primary institutions;’
• ‘a predictable commercial environment if the country plays by the rules; and’
• ‘opportunities to jointly benefit from collaboration on climate, infrastructure, and the COVID-19 pandemic.’

‘Marginal buy-in from China has played a central role in the region’s success thus far.’

• ‘It will remain important in the years ahead.’