‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’

‘ “The balance of power,” Kissinger writes in A World Restored, “is the classic expression of the lesson of history that no order is safe without physical safeguards against aggression.” Applied to the Indo-Pacific, such a warning is prescient:’

• ‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism.’
• ‘Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’

‘The growing material imbalance between China and the rest of the region is notable.’

• ‘Beijing spends more on its military than all its Indo-Pacific neighbors combined.’
• ‘China has invested in anti-access/area-denial weapons (including supersonic missiles and “smart” mines) that threaten the viability of U.S. regional intervention.’
• ‘It has also invested in blue-water, amphibious, and power-projection capabilities that Beijing could employ for offensive missions against India, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and others.’

‘In response to these threats, the United States needs to make a conscious effort to deter Chinese adventurism.’

• ‘Washington can start by moving away from its singular focus on primacy and the expensive and vulnerable platforms such as aircraft carriers designed to maintain it.’
• ‘Instead, the United States should prioritize deterring China through the same relatively inexpensive and asymmetric capabilities Beijing has long employed.’

‘Real regional balance, however, also requires action in concert with allies and partners.’

• ‘The United States needs to help states in the Indo-Pacific develop their own asymmetric capabilities to deter Chinese behavior.’
• ‘Although Washington should maintain its forward presence, it also needs to work with other states to disperse U.S. forces across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.’
• ‘This would reduce American reliance on a small number of vulnerable facilities in East Asia.’
• ‘Finally, the United States should encourage new military and intelligence partnerships between regional states, while still deepening those relationships in which the United States plays a major role—placing a “tire” on the familiar regional alliance system with a U.S. hub and allied spokes.’