‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’

‘The ball is now in Xi Jinping’s court. His choices are limited.’

• ‘He can respond with tough statements but signal a willingness to engage Washington pragmatically.’
• ‘This would hand Mr. Biden a diplomatic victory at the start of his administration and tell the rest of the world that China isn’t yet prepared to take on America.’
• ‘It would also damage Mr. Xi at home, as anything that looks like a retreat would infuriate Chinese nationalists and undercut official propaganda about China’s global stature.’

‘Alternatively, Beijing can respond with provocations of its own.’

• ‘Mr. Xi can order military moves in disputed territories from the Himalayas to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.’
• ‘He can also double down on repressive measures in China.’
• ‘The object would be to call Mr. Biden’s bluff, forcing Washington to choose between a humiliating retreat or a further escalation of tensions.'

‘The early signs aren’t encouraging.’

• ‘On Inauguration Day, Chinese forces attacked Indian positions in Sikkim, across the border from Tibet.’
• ‘Following 13 Chinese sorties into Taiwan’s southwestern air-defense identification zone on Saturday, State Department spokesman Ned Price warned China to cease “its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan.” ’
• ‘China responded by sending another 15 sorties the next day.’

‘The unifying theme of Mr. Xi’s speech to the World Economic Forum Monday morning was China’s staunch opposition to U.S. attempts to isolate China or limit its rise.’

• ‘China will think carefully before making its next moves, but it’s unlikely to submit tamely to American pressure.’