CHINAMacroReporter

'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'

The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World

‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
by

Task Force Report on China’s Belt & Road

|

Council on Foreign Relations

March 31, 2021
'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'
BIG IDEA | ‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’

‘The Belt and Road Initiative is being recalibrated for a post–COVID-19 world.

  • ‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
  • ‘China will also have to contend with the debt and environmental burdens that have accompanied BRI’s signature infrastructure projects.’
  • ‘BRI is likely to emerge from the pandemic as a more slimmed-down, cost-effective, and technology-focused undertaking, but it is not going away.’

‘BRI was initially designed to connect China’s modern coastal cities to its underdeveloped interior and to its Southeast, Central, and South Asian neighbors, cementing China’s position at the center of a more connected world.’

  • ‘The initiative has since outgrown its original regional corridors, expanding to all corners of the globe.’
  • ‘Its scope now includes a Digital Silk Road intended to improve recipients’ telecommunications networks, artificial intelligence capabilities, cloud computing, e-commerce and mobile payment systems, surveillance technology, and other high-tech areas.’
  • ‘And a Health Silk Road designed to operationalize China’s vision of global health governance.’
  • ‘Hundreds of projects around the world now fall under the BRI umbrella.'

‘The global economic contraction has revealed the flaws of China’s BRI model, forcing a reckoning with concerns that many BRI projects are not economically viable and elevating questions of debt sustainability.’

  • ‘Unless BRI-related debt is addressed, countries that are already being battered by the COVID-19 pandemic could be forced to choose between making debt payments and providing health-care and other social services to their citizens.’

‘To some analysts, BRI is China’s primary conduit for pursuing global domination.’

  • ‘This Task Force, however, argues that China pursued BRI primarily to address a number of domestic issues, such as closing the gap between the country’s affluent coastal cities and its impoverished interior, absorbing excess manufacturing capacity, putting its accumulated savings to use, and securing inputs for its manufacturing sector.’
  • ‘Much of Chinese foreign policy is animated by a drive to bolster domestic political stability, which in turn relies on steady economic growth, and BRI is no exception.’

‘Although BRI constitutes a prominent element of Chinese foreign policy, the initiative remains remarkably opaque.’

  • BRI has no central governing institution. China has not published a master list of ‘BRI projects, the terms of which are often negotiated behind closed doors and kept secret.’
  • ‘When projects run into trouble, Beijing often pressures countries to keep all renegotiations private.’
March 9, 2017
So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story
[CHINADebate Presentation] One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.—Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?
keep reading
February 27, 2017
Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?
'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. as a global leader anytime soon.'—Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?' Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S. What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S. So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet?
keep reading
February 15, 2017
C-to-C Internet Commerce- From Taobao Shops to Taobao Villages
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
Why SOE Reform is So Tough
'...SOEs need to reform, because on one hand, many of them have achieved a lot for China. On the other hand, they've actually created quite a lot of harm, in particular in the areas of overcapacity but also in the areas of corruption we've talked about.'
keep reading
February 2, 2017
AmCham China Chairmen's View From China in D.C. 2017
[AmCham China & CHINADebate U.S.—China Trade/Business Series 2017] Terrific insights from leaders on the ground in China. While in D.C. the Chairmen joined us in a panel discussion and individual interviews about U.S. business in China, U.S.-China relations, trade, and much more. We present their views in a 13 part series. Sheryl WuDunn, business executive, lecturer, best-selling author, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize moderated.
keep reading
February 1, 2017
'Chinese Politics In The Xi Jinping Era'
[Malcolm Riddell Interviewed Cheng Li] 'If you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy – which leader belongs to which faction. : 'China is a one–party state, but that does not necessarily mean Chinese leadership is a monolithic group with leaders who have the same ideas, same background, same world views, same politics. No, they're divided.'
keep reading
December 7, 2016
First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China
The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
keep reading
October 18, 2016
How Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent are Changing the Rules of Business
[An Interview of Ed Tse, the author of 'China's Disruptors: Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent... how innovative 'Disruptor' companies are restructuring China's economy.' ] The real force in Chinese economy is increasingly private companies, not SOEs. / Leading private Chinese companies are innovative and ambitious
keep reading
July 14, 2016
How 'Brexit' Will Impact China's Economy
David Dollar gives you fresh insights to better incorporate Brexit's impact into your analyses of China and global economies & markets, including: 1. Why, after the Brexit vote, did the Shanghai Stock Market fall only 1%? 2. How will Brexit affect the value of the RMB and China's currency policy? 3. How will Brexit impact trade with the EU, China’s largest trading partner? 4. Why, in the larger geopolitical perspective, could China be the big winner from Brexit?
keep reading
July 2, 2016
China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?
100s of Cities Bubble Up & Down As Policy Makers Press the Levers China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities. Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...
keep reading

More

CHINAMacroReporter

July 22, 2021
China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
keep reading
July 22, 2021
'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
keep reading