CHINAMacroReporter

How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity

One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
by

|

CHINADebate

February 15, 2017
How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity

One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources forovercapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.

Malcolm Riddell: When we look at the local governments, though, they have goals to meet in terms of ... I know many goals, but some of them in terms of GDP and employment. The incentive system is in place to encourage over capacity in some sense, isn't it?

Ed Tse: That was one of the root causes for this to happen, at least so far in the past.

Malcolm Riddell: Let's focus on overcapacity for a minute. Where are you seeing the greatest problems of overcapacity?

Ed Tse: By definition, if you have overcapacity, a lot of investments are actually not commercially viable. Creating a lot of products and outputs in the marketplace is ultimately not going to be put in place for use very effectively. That's causing a lot of problems, because China has become the world's largest producer for a number of commodities, but who's going to buy their products? At what price are people going to buy the products? Why should you prepare so much of, for example, low-quality steel, for example, or aluminum, or cement, and so on? It's creating a lot of harm.

Malcolm Riddell: A while ago I got a call from a hedge fund manager who said, "Why in the world is China firing up its aluminum smelters when there's already a glut on the market internationally?" I had to explain some of these principles to him as to why that probably happened. What can China do about it? It sounds like between the vested interests and the fact that the folks running the SOEs can also end up being officials again, it sounds like avery tough nut to crack. What are the government's options for taking care of overcapacity?

Ed Tse: I think you touch on a key point, is what are the metrics for measuring the performance of government officials, in particular at the local level. IfChina continues to measure only on GDP, that's a problem, because aGDP-centric mindset will drive this kind of behavior that we've seen, which led to overcapacity.

What the Chinese government is trying to do is to create a perhaps more balanced [inaudible 00:22:10]. More balance means you compare economic growth with perhaps other metrics like [inaudible 00:22:17]momentum, enhancement, and all the other relevant parameters. I think that that's critical for some of this behavior to change. The other is of course the Chinese government continues to rotate the people, as you already talk about, is to rotate people from one post to another, sometimes from governments to enterprise or sometimes from enterprise to government, and sometimes from one government to another government, local government and so on. There's another way to try to address some of these issues, but eventually it is the notion about what are the appropriate metrics for measuring performance.

Malcolm Riddell: We used to say on Wall Street that people do what you pay them to do, or what you pay them for achieving. If GDP, it's an easy metric. If you're measuring the environment, I looked at the scorecard for the other areas that have been introduced. It still seems like GDP and employment will still keep bubbling up to the top of what's on the mind of most local officials. What do you think?

Ed Tse: Absolutely. That is why it is hard to change. The idea is good, but the practicality of having a more balanced scorecard is actually pretty difficult.

Malcolm Riddell: Then other than really finding some way to put these reforms in place,what can China do about the overcapacity?

Ed Tse: The other is actually to continue to encourage and drive newer forms of employment, because as you know, one of the issues of building a lot of this repeated or repetitive investments in a lot of local places is for the local government to generate employment. Employment is good from a local government standpoint, because it generates stability.

One of the challenges, if much of the overcapacity is to be addressed,then perhaps it may lead to some issues with less stable employment inmore local places. The question is what to do with that. Of course that's a tight issue. In fact, it's not easy to address that.

Malcolm Riddell: The reason for them to is it's not just the problem of unemployment, say,the way we think of it in the West. It's because of the potential for political unrest, is that right?

Ed Tse: Could be. It could very well be, but even without the so-called political unrest, there is not a good sign of proper governance of any government if you have a high level of unemployment. It's a tough issue for China,and for the most part, any other countries in a similar situation. As you know, Malcolm, the Chinese government is now focusing a lot on entrepreneurship, on innovation, because entrepreneurship and innovation are now considered as a very reliable way to generate newforms of employment.The question is whether or not people who used to work in an aluminum smelter can go and work for a tech entrepreneurial company. That is ofcourse not that easy, but at the same time-

Malcolm Riddell: That's a little bit how Donald Trump got elected, right, talking about the folks who were displaced and who really aren't qualified for the other jobs? It's a huge challenge everywhere, really.

Ed Tse: Exactly, yes. It's the same thing, but as you know, Malcolm, the speed and intensity of development on the entrepreneur, in particular in the tech sector, in China is mind-boggling. It's growing up exponentially and a lot of opportunities now being created.

The question, as you said correctly, is whether or not people who work in the "old economy" can equally work in the new economy. That's a big question mark. Maybe some of them could, but most of them probably cannot. There's still going to be a major social challenge for the Chinese government in this transition.

Malcolm Riddell: A few years ago, the book came out When China Rules The World. I used to give a lecture called Why China Won't Rule The World. It was not[inaudible 00:26:54]. I'm pro-China, but it was based on demographics,whether or not China would be able to support the aging economy, that its economy could grow quickly enough to be able to do that. My last slide, this is before all the entrepreneurship and tech innovations, was that I have confidence in Chinese creativity. That was the word I used,rather than entrepreneurship. I think if anything's going to save them in this demographic hole they're in, it will be entrepreneurship. That's why I was so encouraged by reading your book and seeing the ways that China may be able to prosper in a global situation.

Ed Tse: I personally believe that that is probably the only way for China to continue to prosper. I think actually China has a good chance, because of the momentum and also the spread of entrepreneurship across many parts of China, and how in particular young people have really embraced it, and actually are now getting into entrepreneurship. Many of them have created quite a lot of success in the process. Not everybody will be successful, as you know, but some of them would.

I think that China as of today and in the future will now have created an environment for the young people to give it a try on entrepreneurship, andin the process creating quite enormous success and innovations along the way. I think that's partly the most exciting thing that we are now seeing coming from China.

Malcolm Riddell: Certainly in our last discussion about your great book China Disruptors,that was a terrific take-away.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 14, 2021
How to Keep U.S.-Chinese Confrontation From Ending in Calamity
'The two countries need to consider something akin to the procedures and mechanisms that the United States and the Soviet Union put in place to govern their relations after the Cuban missile crisis—but in this case, without first going through the near-death experience of a barely avoided war.'
keep reading
February 14, 2021
The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War
‘We believe that a crisis is building over Taiwan and that it is becoming the most dangerous flashpoint in the world for a possible war that involved the United States of America, China, and probably other major powers.'
keep reading
February 13, 2021
Why China Will Go Green - Really
‘To Communist Party leaders, greenery increasingly aligns with their economic and political interests. China, a populous country that is cruelly lacking in clean water and arable farmland, and which hates having to rely so heavily on imported energy, has a selfish interest in embracing what President Xi Jinping calls “ecological civilisation”.’
keep reading
May 7, 2021
'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'
"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
keep reading
May 5, 2021
'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'
‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
keep reading
May 4, 2021
'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'
At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
keep reading
May 3, 2021
'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'
‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
keep reading
May 2, 2021
'Fanning the Flames of War'
I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
keep reading
May 2, 2021
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’
‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
keep reading
April 30, 2021
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
keep reading
April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark
Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden’s First 100 Days: Setting the Table for U.S.-China Strategic Competition'
‘Biden is focused on accumulating as much leverage as possible to deal with China from a position of strength and to dispel the growing Chinese perception that the United States is a power in decline.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'
“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'
‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'What does Biden’s first 100 days tell us about his approach to China?'
‘What we have learned from the first 100 days is that we are likely to have both a confrontational and competitive relationship with China, similar to Trump’s policy but with some important nuances.’
keep reading
April 29, 2021
'China's Response to Biden's Speech'
‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'The New Age of Autarky'
‘The United States, China, and India are each now engaged in what seems like a paradoxical enterprise: the quest to increase their global status while also turning inward to become more self-sufficient.’
keep reading
April 26, 2021
'China Inside Out: A Conversation with Susan Shirk & Tony Saich'
‘The centralization of power, quite predictably, leads to this kind of echo chamber effect, which is really quite dangerous. And it's something that we should be factoring in when we think about how to deal with China now.’
keep reading
April 24, 2021
'Xinhua News Agency on the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021" in the U.S.' | 新华社评美“2021年战略竞争法案”
‘The bill is full of Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice, wantonly misinterpreting, slandering and discrediting China's development strategy and domestic and foreign policies, and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'A new era of bipartisanship on China in Congress?
‘The Strategic Competition Act codifies a bipartisan U.S. position on a range of China-related issues and telegraphs to U.S. allies the federal government is unified.’
keep reading
April 23, 2021
'Xi at the Climate Summit: Domestic Obstacles to Carbon Neutrality'
‘Xi’s reticence at the summit could be driven by domestic considerations. He needs to balance divergent interests between domestic industrial groups and international expectations, the need to show China’s green image and also not be seen as caving to U.S. diplomatic pressure.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
'Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan'
"We advise Japan to stay away from the Taiwan question. The deeper it is embroiled in, the bigger the price it will pay." Communist Party-backed Global Times' editorial.
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
keep reading
April 21, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Xi calls for new world order (again)'
‘We must not let the rules set by one or a few countries be imposed on others, or allow unilateralism pursued by certain countries [read America] to set the pace for the whole world.’
keep reading
April 20, 2021
'Beijing won total control of Hong Kong. Now, the "brainwashing" begins.'
April 15 was not a normal Thursday in Hong Kong. That occasion, the first “National Security Education Day” since China imposed a tough security law in June, was the most visible display of Hong Kong’s fall from a relatively free, boisterous territory to an ­Orwellian place that resembles the repressive mainland.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
‘The US-Japan Joint Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs'
‘The US-Japan Joint Leaders' Statement grossly interferes in China's domestic affairs and severely violates basic norms governing international relations. China deplores and rejects it.’
keep reading
April 19, 2021
'Tokyo Flexes Its Talons'
‘The alliance with Japan is the single most important international relationship America has.’
keep reading
April 18, 2021
'Taiwan in US-Japan statement: show of resolve or diplomatic calculus?'
"The statement shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China."
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Is growth in China soaring or slowing?: The answer depends on how you calculate growth'
‘It was China’s fastest growth on record, underlining the strength of its recovery. Yet it also illustrates the oddities in how GDP is reported.’
keep reading
April 17, 2021
'Margaret Ng's Statement at Conclusion of Today's Trial'
‘There is no right so precious to the people of Hong Kong as the freedom of expression and the freedom of peaceful assembly.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
U.S.-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. - JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”
‘President Biden and Prime Minister Suga exchanged views on the impact of China’s actions on peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and the world, and shared their concerns over Chinese activities that are inconsistent with the international rules-based order, including the use of economic and other forms of coercion.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'
‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'China’s economy springs back from pandemic hit with record growth'
“The headline year-on-year data really doesn’t tell us the story of how the economy has performed in the first quarter . . . in fact that performance was a bit disappointing. The silver lining is that March was better than the first two months.”
keep reading
April 16, 2021
'Hong Kong Newspaper Tycoon Jimmy Lai Jailed Over Role in Peaceful Protests'
“The wrongful prosecution, conviction and sentencing of these activists underlines the Hong Kong government’s intention to eliminate all political opposition in the city,”
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China'
‘President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan at the end of summer is likely to confound Chinese calculations, both economic and geopolitical.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.