CHINAMacroReporter
April 16, 2021
'Breaking China’s Stranglehold on the U.S. Rare Earth Elements Supply Chain'
‘China’s control of the supply of usable, refined rare earth elements undermines U.S. security and that of its allies.’
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April 16, 2021
'China’s economy springs back from pandemic hit with record growth'
“The headline year-on-year data really doesn’t tell us the story of how the economy has performed in the first quarter . . . in fact that performance was a bit disappointing. The silver lining is that March was better than the first two months.”
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April 16, 2021
'Hong Kong Newspaper Tycoon Jimmy Lai Jailed Over Role in Peaceful Protests'
“The wrongful prosecution, conviction and sentencing of these activists underlines the Hong Kong government’s intention to eliminate all political opposition in the city,”
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April 15, 2021
'Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China'
‘President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan at the end of summer is likely to confound Chinese calculations, both economic and geopolitical.’
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April 15, 2021
'TSMC faces pressure to choose a side in US-China tech war'
‘Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has maintained its historic position of neutrality, reflected in the company’s strategy of “being everyone’s foundry”.’
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April 14, 2021
The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World
In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
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April 13, 2021
'2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community'
‘China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms.’
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April 13, 2021
In Battle With U.S. for Global Sway, China Showers Money on Europe’s Neglected Areas
‘The number of freight trains running between China and Europe topped 12,400 last year, 50% higher than in 2019 and seven times that of 2016, according to Chinese authorities.’
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April 11, 2021
'Why manufacturing matters to economic superpowers'
‘Whether such reshoring matters for national economies depends very much on the industry.’
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April 11, 2021
China in Jamie Dimon's Letter to Shareholders
‘China does not have a straight road to becoming the dominant economic power’.
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April 11, 2021
'Alibaba’s rivals on alert after China’s regulators hand out record fine'
“Everyone with a clear mind won't self-regulate, you just pretend that you do. Who will pay for the loss if you lost your competitive advantage because you self-regulated and others didn't?”
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April 10, 2021
Alibaba: 'Promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy'
‘From the perspective of the long-term and healthy development of the platform economy, regulation by law and support for development are not contradictory, but are complementary and mutually reinforcing.'
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April 9, 2021
'The Best Explanation of Biden’s Economic Thinking I’ve Heard'
‘When President Biden’s thinking about the infrastructure investments necessary, a lot of it is in contraposition to what he is seeing China doing in terms of strategic investments.’
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April 8, 2021
Liu Ge: Competing with China a farfetched guise for US’ infrastructure plan
‘Historically speaking, it seems the only way for the US government to make costly public investments was to create an adversary that is presumed to threaten its security.’
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April 8, 2021
'Antony Blinken interview: The secretary of state offers a window into Biden's foreign policy decisions'
‘ “Our goal is not to contain China, hold China back, keep it down,” Blinken underlined.’
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April 8, 2021
'US adds Chinese supercomputing companies to export blacklist'
‘The Biden administration took its first trade action against China on Thursday, adding seven Chinese supercomputing developers to an export blacklist for assisting Chinese military efforts in a move that will likely further escalate frosty tensions between the world's two largest economies.’
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April 7, 2021
'Remarks by President Biden on the American Jobs Plan'
‘Look, do we think the rest of world is waiting around? Take a look. Do you think China is waiting around to invest in this digital infrastructure or in research and development?’
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April 7, 2021
China: 'Power Trader'
‘The theory of power trade better explains China’s economic and trade policies than does the theory of free trade or protectionism,’
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April 6, 2021
'Train Wreck: Ultimately companies have to choose.’
MUST READ: Bill Reinsch succinctly but brilliantly summarizes the situations in China and the U.S. and between the two.
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April 6, 2021
'Buy American!': Pushing U.S. Companies to Onshore Supply Chains
The debate about how to deal with China commercially ‘has moved in two directions: running faster—improving our innovation capabilities in critical technologies to better compete with China—and slowing China down by restricting its access to U.S. technology.’
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April 4, 2021
'Why Defending Taiwan is in the U.S. National Interest'
‘As long as Washington assesses that American security is best served by defending forward—an approach that has served the United States well over the past 70 years—Taiwan’s de facto independence will remain a key US interest and driver of American policy in Asia.’
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April 4, 2021
'Why China Is Going All "Wolf Warrior," All the Time'
‘All this is to say that, living in Beijing as I do, I think the current approach is predictable and consistent with everything else we are seeing in China in the New Era.’
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April 3, 2021
'With Swarms of Ships, Beijing Tightens Its Grip on South China Sea'
‘Not long ago, China asserted its claims on the South China Sea by building and fortifying artificial islands in waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.’
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April 2, 2021
'Genesis Celebrates Launch In China With Dazzling, World Record-breaking Drone Show Over Shanghai's Iconic Skyline'
'The spectacular visuals were coordinated to present the world of Genesis, delivering an audacious storytelling concept while also breaking the Guinness World Records for "The Most Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) airborne simultaneously".’
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April 2, 2021
Mo' Infrastructure, Mo' Problems Copy
‘China’s reliance on building roads, railways and airports to support growth has caused a spike in debt, with some of that money funneled into unnecessary infrastructure and uneconomic boondoggle developments.’
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April 2, 2021
How Does the U.S. Compare to China?
Two reports from Bloomberg – ‘Biden Starts Infrastructure Bet With U.S. Far Behind China’ and ‘Biden’s Biggest-Ever Investment Plan for U.S. Still Trails China’ – highlight a few of the differences.
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April 2, 2021
USTR | '2021 National Trade Estimate Report on FOREIGN TRADE BARRIERS'
‘Made in China 2025 seeks to build up Chinese companies in the ten targeted, strategic sectors at the expense of, and to the detriment of, foreign industries and their technologies through a multi-step process over ten years.’
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April 2, 2021
‘2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure’
‘The 2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure reveals we’ve made some incremental progress toward restoring our nation’s infrastructure.’ ‘For the first time in 20 years, our infrastructure is out of the D range. America's Infrastructure Scores a C-.’
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April 2, 2021
'US to make it easier for diplomats to meet Taiwanese officials'
'Plan to loosen restrictions on contacts with Taipei threatens to provoke China.'
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April 2, 2021
Biden Starts Infrastructure Bet With U.S. Far Behind China
Even though he didn’t rely solely on the China challenge to justify his new American Jobs Plan; devoted to infrastructure and more, President Biden certainly he had China in his sights. Because as Jonathan Hillman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote“The United States is entering what could be a decades-long competition in which economic and technological power will matter just as much, if not more, than military might.” “Starting this race with decaying infrastructure is like lining up for a marathon with a broken ankle.”
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April 2, 2021
President Biden Lays Out His ‘American Jobs’ Plan
‘It has become a cliché in U.S. policy circles that the best China policy is to invest in core U.S. capabilities: education, infrastructure, and research and development,’ writes Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University in ‘How to Craft a Durable China Strategy,’ in Foreign Affairs.
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April 2, 2021
'China’s Dangerous Double Game in North Korea'
‘Beijing’s North Korea policy is primarily motivated by a desire to counter U.S. power in the Asia-Pacific region and increase Chinese influence on the Korean Peninsula.
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April 2, 2021
'Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden'
‘Japan walks a narrow line as it seeks to maintain close ties with its only military ally, the U.S., while avoiding damage to economic ties with its biggest trade partner, China.
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April 1, 2021
'Convicted in Hong Kong'
‘Everyone in the former British colony understands the message being sent from Hong Kong’s new masters in Beijing:’
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April 1, 2021
'U.S. dollar at risk as China races ahead on digital yuan'
‘So why should America care about any of this?’
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April 1, 2021
PRC Foreign Ministry Response to the USTR's 'National Trade Estimate Report'
‘The accusations and slanders made by the US against China's industrial policies are groundless.’
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March 31, 2021
'Consumer boycotts warn of trouble ahead for Western firms in China'
‘Western executives in China cannot shake an unsettling fear that this time is different.’‘Their lucrative Chinese operations are at rising risk of tumbling into the political chasm that has opened between the West and China.’
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March 31, 2021
'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'
‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
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March 31, 2021
Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries
‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
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March 31, 2021
'The Threat the U.S. Isn't Answering'
‘If BRI meets little competition or resistance, Beijing could become the hub of global trade, set important technical standards that would disadvantage non-Chinese companies, lock countries into carbon-intensive power generation, have greater influence over countries’ political decisions, and acquire more power-projection capabilities for its military.’
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March 31, 2021
'China Is Missing from the Great Inflation Debate'
‘Once again, massive fiscal spending in the United States has invited warnings of inflation and triggered dark memories of the 1970s. But these fears are based on a model that has since been obliterated by economic realities – not least the rise of China, which has fundamentally reshaped the US and global economies.’
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March 31, 2021
'Dominating the Digital Silk Road'
‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports the Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’
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March 31, 2021
'Biden administration maintains Trump policy on Hong Kong'
'State department concludes territory should not receive preferential treatment under US law.'
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March 31, 2021
'China Owns, Partially Owns, or Operates 93 Ports'
‘Chinese firms own, partially own, or operate at least ninety-three ports across the globe.’
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March 30, 2021
'Profit or principle is the hard choice for foreign companies in China' George Magnus
‘Business risks for foreign companies in China are increasing after the recent exchange of sanctions between Beijing and western governments.’‘For foreign companies in China, the options seem delicately balanced. If they stand up for principles, they may put revenues at risk and will incur extra costs as they develop new supply chains. Yet if they prioritise their China profits, they could do irretrievable damage to their brands at home and in other markets, falling foul of shareholders and changing governance requirements.’‘It is an invidious choice but the latter is likely to be far more damaging to longer term performance and earnings, and corrosive of trust in the brand.’
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March 30, 2021
'How China keeps stumbling on the global stage' John Pomfret
‘Across the globe, Xi’s diplomatic representatives in Europe, Beijing, Hong Kong, Canada, Australia and elsewhere, are lifting up rocks and smashing their own feet.’‘The moves are befuddling — with a buoyant economy and a practically covid-free country, China is poised to see its influence rise if it plays it smart. But it’s not; instead, it’s alienating individuals and nations across the world.’‘I’ve been studying China for my entire adult life and I have to admit to being bewildered by China’s performance.’‘But I’m in good company. Thirty-one years ago, the great political scientist Lucian Pye wrote, “Just when all appears to be going well, Chinese officials create problems for seemingly unaccountable reasons.” ’
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March 30, 2021
'An Alliance of Autocracies? China Wants to Lead a New World Order.'
‘The world is increasingly dividing into distinct if not purely ideological camps, with both China and the United States hoping to lure supporters.’
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March 29, 2021
'Global Cycle Notes: U-Turn': China
‘A U-shaped recovery in the services sector beckons, but it’s still difficult to describe just what it will look like. No event in economic history compares, and the range of outcomes for wages, prices, employment, and financial markets is large.’
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March 28, 2021
‘At a Crossroads: The Next Chapter for FinTech in China’
‘As financial innovation has gained traction and the firms driving it have grown into sizeable players, the dynamic between innovators and regulators has begun to shift. Regulatory agencies have started to be more proactive in supervising the activities of technology firms after realizing that the size of many technology firms and FinTechs means they could threaten financial stability and peace in society if their innovation efforts and business practices were overly aggressive.’
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March 28, 2021
'New Trade Representative Says U.S. Isn’t Ready to Lift China Tariffs'
'The U.S. isn’t ready to lift tariffs on Chinese imports in the near future, but might be open to trade negotiations with Beijing, according to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.'
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March 28, 2021
China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it
After the National People’s Congress, ‘election reform’ in Hong Kong, the dustup between the U.S. and China in Anchorage, and China’s going all ‘Wolf Warrior’ on the EU, that’s not such a bad thing.
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March 26, 2021
Beijing Targets American Business-2
'American businessmen, wishing for simple, lucrative commercial ties, have long resisted viewing U.S.-China relations as an ideological struggle. But strategic guidance issued by the leaders of both countries make clear the matter is settled: The ideological dimension of the competition is inescapable, even central.'
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March 26, 2021
'H&M, Nike Pay With China Boycotts on Xinjiang Human Rights Stance'
‘While both Western and Asian companies have frequently been targets of Chinese nationalism over the years, the latest flurry signals a shift in strategy by President Xi Jinping’s government as it confronts a more unified approach from the U.S. and its allies.’
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March 26, 2021
'The Illiberal Tide'
But even more problematic is that the reporting on any given action by another country may look so benign to the non-Chinese reader that he or she dismisses it as something China, even when it reacts forcefully, couldn’t be serious about. That is a mistake. Too often what looks ‘benign’ to the rest of the world is as serious as a train wreck to Xi Jinping.
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March 26, 2021
Beijing Targets American Business-1
‘Beijing’s message is unmistakable: You must choose.’‘If you want to do business in China, it must be at the expense of American values. ‘‘You will meticulously ignore the genocide of ethnic and religious minorities inside China’s borders; you must disregard that Beijing has reneged on its major promises—including the international treaty guaranteeing a “high degree of autonomy” for Hong Kong; and you must stop engaging with security-minded officials in your own capital unless it’s to lobby them on Beijing’s behalf.’
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March 25, 2021
China Goes All 'Wolf Warrior' on the U.S. & the EU
Today is the Tracker’s first issue. Covered here are two events where China went all 'Wolf Warrior' first on the U.S. and then on the EU.
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March 25, 2021
3 | China explains why it is going all 'Wolf Warrior' on the EU
China has found that bullying works a lot of the time, Why is China engaging in "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy
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March 25, 2021
2 | In Anchorage, Yang Spoke for the Party Leadership
‘Yang's temper tantrum has been interpreted by some commentators as being all about Chinese domestic politics. But it would be a mistake to see Yang's performance as mere bluster designed for home consumption. In Anchorage, he was speaking for the top leadership of the Communist Party.’
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March 25, 2021
2 | More to come?
‘This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully.’
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March 25, 2021
1 | Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties
'Mr. Yang, also noted “important disagreements” remained, and in remarks to Chinese state media suggested Beijing wouldn’t back down.'
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March 25, 2021
1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China
"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."
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March 24, 2021
'There Will Not Be a New Cold War' Thomas Christensen
‘China’s vital position in the global production chain and the lack of struggle for ideological supremacy between authoritarianism and liberal democracy mean that the rise of a new Cold War is unlikely.’
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March 21, 2021
Just About in Place
To help us understand the makeup of the team, The Wire China has put together a great chart with bios of each member.
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March 21, 2021
'A Taiwan Crisis May End the American Empire' Niall Ferguson
‘No matter what other issues Kissinger raised — Vietnam, Korea, the Soviets — Zhou steered the conversation back to Taiwan, “the only question between us two.” ’
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March 20, 2021
'After the protests - China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it'
‘The old Hong Kong is gone. Judge Mr Xi’s China by what it builds in its place.’
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March 17, 2021
How to Meet the China Challenge
How the Biden administration characterizes the China – strategic competitor, rival, enemy, and the like – and how it develops strategies – containment, confrontation, competition, cooperation, or some combination of these - will have an impact, to a greater or lesser degree, on most every industry and every market.
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March 13, 2021
'China All but Ends Hong Kong Democracy With "Patriots Only" Rule'
‘The National People’s Congress on Thursday approved a drastic overhaul of election rules for Hong Kong that would most likely bar many pro-democracy politicians from competing in elections, cementing Beijing’s grip over the territory.'
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March 13, 2021
'Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget'
'Like previous years, the first day of the new National People’s Congress session was highlighted by the widely anticipated announcement of China’s 2021 defense budget. This year it is set at 1.36 trillion yuan ($209.16 billion), a 6.8 percent increase from the 1.27 trillion yuan budget set last year.’
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March 13, 2021
Xi’s Gambit: China Plans for a World Without American Technology
‘China’s new five-year plan, made public on Friday, at the National People’s Congress (NPC), called tech development a matter of national security, not just economic development, a break from the previous plan.’
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March 13, 2021
'The five-year plan's big target - A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world'
The National People’s Congress concluded on Friday, March 11. As I’ve mentioned before, analyses of the impact of the plans and policies on China and the world will start to come out in a week or two. In the meantime and to keep you immediately informed, today’s issue covers the NPC’s outcomes more generally, beginning with a full summary from The Economist.
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March 12, 2021
‘Enter the Trump Buddha'
“Trump, the Buddha of Knowing of the Western Paradise.”
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March 11, 2021
Artificial Intelligence: How to Beat China
‘China is organized, resourced, and determined to win the technology competition. AI is central to China’s global expansion, economic and military power, and domestic stability.’
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March 11, 2021
China, Ai, & the Coming U.S. Industrial Policy
‘The government will have to orchestrate policies to promote innovation; protect industries and sectors critical to national security; recruit and train talent; incentivize domestic research, development, and production across a range of technologies deemed essential for national security and economic prosperity; and marshal coalitions of allies and partners to support democratic norms.'
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March 11, 2021
'Why Biden Should Ditch Trump’s China Tariffs'
‘President Joe Biden has to decide whether to rescind his predecessor’s China tariffs.’
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March 11, 2021
Then There are Semiconductors
‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
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March 11, 2021
'Hard lesson for HK opposition: Extreme political confrontation is not in the designs of China'
'The radical forces in Hong Kong thought they were strong!’
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March 11, 2021
'China Turns to Elon Musk as Technology Dreams Sour'
‘China is having its techlash moment. The country’s internet giants, once celebrated as engines of economic vitality, are now scorned for exploiting user data, abusing workers and squelching innovation. Jack Ma, co-founder of the e-commerce titan Alibaba, is a fallen idol, with his companies under government scrutiny for the ways they have secured their grip over the world’s second-largest economy.’
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March 11, 2021
For Industrial Policy: National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan
‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
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March 10, 2021
'Beijing replicates its South China Sea tactics in the Himalayas'
‘Emboldened by its cost-free expansion in the South China Sea, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regime has stepped up efforts to replicate that model in the Himalayas.'
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March 10, 2021
'China Crackdown on Hong Kong'
‘The scale of the protests really shook Beijing. All the previous protest movements had lasted a few months, at most. This time, there was huge support, and it wasn’t dying down on its own.’
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March 9, 2021
'Neither China nor the US fits neatly into any one box’ Yuen Yuen Ang
‘Binary narratives lie behind the common misconception that China’s economic success has vindicated autocracy. (The simplistic logic is that if China is not a democracy, it must be an autocracy, and when it prospers, that prosperity must be because of its autocracy). For liberal democracies, this raises the fear that the “China model” poses an ideological challenge to democracy.’
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March 7, 2021
Part 2 | 'How Biden Can Learn From History in Real Time' Copy
‘ “International relations scholars,” the political scientist Daniel Drezner has written, “are certain about two facts:'
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March 7, 2021
How the WTO Changed China
'WTO membership, the new consensus goes, has allowed China access to the American and other global economies without forcing it to truly change its behavior, with disastrous consequences for workers and wages around the world.’
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March 7, 2021
With growth on track, China starts to unwind stimulus
‘China was the first country to open its lending and spending taps in the face of the coronavirus downturn. Now, it is the first to start to close them, giving others a partial preview at the National People’s Congressof what the end of stimulus will look like. The most notable aspect is its gradualism.’
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March 6, 2021
'Taper test - With growth on track, China starts to unwind stimulus'
‘China was the first country to open its lending and spending taps in the face of the coronavirus downturn. Now, it is the first to start to close them, giving others a partial preview at the National People’s Congressof what the end of stimulus will look like. The most notable aspect is its gradualism.’
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March 5, 2021
Nursing China’s Debt Hangover
‘China official target of 6% annual economic growth, announced Friday, is so modest it’s clear something else is going on. A plausible theory is that this is part of a strategy to rein in debt.’
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March 4, 2021
China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong
China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
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March 4, 2021
'NATO's Shifting Focus to China'
‘Consider, for example, a war escalating over the defense of Taiwan. “We should not forget that the main member state in NATO, the United States, is not only a transatlantic nation, but also a Pacific nation. And the question is, if at a certain stage, the U.S. were to be threatened by China, would that invoke Article 5 in the treaty?"'
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March 3, 2021
Missing: Has anyone seen Europe’s China plan?
‘Caught between Washington and Beijing, European capitals find themselves in lack of a strategic China policy.’
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February 28, 2021
Why Beijing was right to rein in Jack Ma's rogue Ant Group IPO
‘In July 2020, just before their IPO application, Ant Financial not only abandoned the word "financial" and renamed themselves Ant Group, they attempted to list not on the Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges, where financial institutions list, but rather on the Shanghai STAR Market, which was created as an exchange for high-tech innovators.’
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February 27, 2021
The rivalry between America and China will hinge on South-East Asia
‘In the rivalry between China and America, there will be a main zone of contention: South-East Asia. Of the two competitors, China looks the more likely prize-winner.'
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February 26, 2021
'Inside Xinjiang’s Prison State'
‘After years of first denying the facilities’ existence, then claiming that they had closed, Chinese officials now say the camps are “vocational education and training centers,” necessary to rooting out “extreme thoughts” and no different from correctional facilities in the United States or deradicalization centers in France.’
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February 24, 2021
Japan Is the New Leader of Asia’s Liberal Order
‘In an era of Chinese bellicosity, North Korean provocations, and a raging pandemic, Japan’s inconspicuous ascent to regional leadership has gone mostly unnoticed.’
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February 23, 2021
‘Patriots’ Only: Beijing Plans Overhaul of Hong Kong’s Elections
‘China plans to impose restrictions on Hong Kong’s electoral system to root out candidates the Communist Party deems disloyal, a move that could block democracy advocates in the city from running for any elected office.’
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February 23, 2021
HSBC offers lesson in corporate realpolitik
‘HSBC’s Asia pivot is a lesson in corporate realpolitik. It is just as much a recognition of the new political reality facing every western company that is dependent on doing business with China. Businesses will have to choose between western markets and access to China, and between liberal and authoritarian value systems.’
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February 23, 2021
Germany Is a Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War
'As goes Germany, so goes Europe — and that’s a real challenge for the U.S. Berlin leads a European bloc that could cast a geopolitical swing vote in the U.S.-China rivalry.’
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February 22, 2021
Remaking “Made in China”: Beijing’s Industrial Internet Ambitions
‘The Chinese government is placing large bureaucratic and financial bets on upgrading and digitizing its already dominant manufacturing base. Such efforts have coalesced around one key term: the “industrial internet” (工业互联网). The successful application of it across Chinese industry would prolong and elevate the “Made in China” era.’
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February 22, 2021
How American Free Trade Can Outdo China
‘When it comes to trade, a critical dimension of the U.S. and China competition, America is ceding the field. At the same time, China has expanded its trade footprint. When it comes to trade and investment agreements, China isn’t isolated. The U.S. increasingly is. Now we have to make up for lost ground. America can out-compete China, but first it needs to get back in the game.’
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February 21, 2021
China’s ‘two sessions’: why this year’s event is so important for Xi Jinping’s vision for the future
‘The ‘Two Sessions,’ the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature, and the top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, begins on March 5 and runs for about two weeks.’
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February 20, 2021
‘The Future of China’s Past: Rising China’s Next Act'
‘By the Party’s own acknowledgment, Deng’s initial arrangement has run its course. It is therefore time to develop a new understanding that will do for the Party in the next 30 years what Deng’s program did in the previous era.'
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Germany Is a Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War

Germany Threatens the Democratic Alliance Against China

'As goes Germany, so goes Europe — and that’s a real challenge for the U.S. Berlin leads a European bloc that could cast a geopolitical swing vote in the U.S.-China rivalry.’
by

|

Bloomberg

February 23, 2021
Germany Is a Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War
BIG IDEA | 'As goes Germany, so goes Europe — and that’s a real challenge for the U.S. Berlin leads a European bloc that could cast a geopolitical swing vote in the U.S.-China rivalry.’  
'Yet Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is seeking strategic “equidistance” rather than strategic alignment that threatens to fracture the alliance of democracies. Germany will not support the “building of blocs” by China or America, Merkel has announced: Europe will preserve its alliance with Washington while charting its own path with Beijing.’  

My Take

Ms. Merkel will be stepping down as Chancellor later this year. The big question: Will her successor follow her China policies?

Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
August 24, 2023
‘The U.S. Has Tactics, But No China Strategy’ | Bill Zarit
July 23, 2023
‘Is Xi Coup-proof?’ (after the march on Moscow, I have to ask)
July 10, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'Change unseen for a 100 years is coming.'
April 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?
January 2, 2023
'Strangling with an intent to kill.’
November 22, 2022
Xi's China: 'less reliable, less predictable, and less efficient'
October 31, 2022
Xi Jinping: ‘Crossing a threshold to outright dictatorship?’'
October 18, 2022
The 20th Party Congress with All Eyes are on Xi Jinping
October 10, 2022
China Coup: How Worried Should Xi Be?
September 26, 2022
'How do you spy on China?'
September 18, 2022
Xi’s Dangerous Radical Secrecy
September 5, 2022
Building Biden's 'Great Wall' Around China
July 10, 2022
A Debt Crisis of its Own Making
July 1, 2022
No. Ukraine Won't Change Xi's Plans - or Timetable - for Taiwan
June 22, 2022
'The competitiveness of China is eroding.'
June 12, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
June 5, 2022
Is Xi Jinping China's Biggest Problem?
May 30, 2022
The Next U.S.-China Crisis: CEOs & Boards Are Not Ready
May 22, 2022
China GDP: 'A very long period of Japan-style low growth.’
May 14, 2022
'Zero Covid' & the Shanghai lockdown
May 1, 2022
Is China's Tech 'Crackdown' Really Over?
April 17, 2022
China: 'Sleep Walking into Sanctions?'
April 17, 2022
Russian Sanctions' Impact on China
April 5, 2022
Faint Cracks
March 21, 2022
Is China in a Bind?
March 13, 2022
Under Construction: Two (Opposing) World Orders
February 19, 2022
'A Fateful Error'
February 17, 2022
Ukraine, Taiwan, & the 'Nightmare Scenario'
February 2, 2022
This is Mr. Xi's Big Year - and Nothing Better Spoil It
January 18, 2022
Bachelors, Mother-in-Laws, & China's Economy
January 5, 2022
Q&A 6 | China Reverse Its Declining Birthrate?
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-1 | Drivers of Growth Momentum
December 30, 2021
Q&A 1 | How Much Does the Gender Imbalance Contribute to China’s Rising Housing Prices?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 4 | Is China Exporting Inflation?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 3 | Property 2022: Stabilization or Growth?
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-3 | Analyzing the Gender Imbalance Data
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-2 | Gender Imbalance as a Driver of Housing Prices
December 30, 2021
Q&A 5 | Will Xi Continue to Favor the State Over the Private Sector?
December 30, 2021
Q&A 7 | Why Did Beijing Ban Online Tutoring?
December 30, 2021
What Are Your Top of Mind Concerns?
December 30, 2021
Getting (Xi Jingping's) Priorities Straight
December 7, 2021
Look Through the Rights Lenses
December 7, 2021
Sometimes You Just Have to Roll the Dice
December 7, 2021
Watch What Beijing Says - and Does
December 7, 2021
'Biden Has a Summit With Xi, but No Strategy for China'
November 23, 2021
Xi Jinping's Leadership: 'The Inevitable Outcome of History'
November 23, 2021
'Xi Jinping has made sure history is now officially on his side'
November 23, 2021
'America's China Plan: A Proposal' by Clyde Prestowitz
November 9, 2021
Why China Won't Invade Taiwan - Yet
October 27, 2021
An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.
October 17, 2021
Just How Contagious is Evergrande?
October 7, 2021
'This Time Feels Different'
September 27, 2021
AUKUS: A New World Order?
September 19, 2021
Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.
September 7, 2021
The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?
August 28, 2021
'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'
August 15, 2021
'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'
August 15, 2021
China Economy: Industrial Production Down, Demand Resilient
August 15, 2021
'China Signals More Regulation for Businesses in Coming Years'
August 15, 2021
‘Global investors shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
August 5, 2021
'Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target'
August 5, 2021
Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You
August 5, 2021
'China Wants Manufacturing—Not the Internet—to Lead the Economy'
August 5, 2021
'Stock Market: China Doesn’t Care How Much Money Investors Lose'
August 1, 2021
'Xi's Four Pillars of Regulation'
August 1, 2021
China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?
August 1, 2021
'Why China Is Cracking Down on Its Technology Giants'
August 1, 2021
'The most significant philosophical shift since Deng'
August 1, 2021
How China's Middle-Class China is Transforming China and the World
July 25, 2021
Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)
July 22, 2021
Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'
July 22, 2021
'Tell me lies, tell me sweet little VIEs'
July 22, 2021
Part 3 | Revising the Rules
July 22, 2021
China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
July 22, 2021
'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
July 22, 2021
Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
July 18, 2021
'I will aim for Mao's Status.'
July 18, 2021
'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'
July 18, 2021
'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'
July 18, 2021
'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'
July 18, 2021
Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling
July 18, 2021
Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'
July 15, 2021
The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents
July 15, 2021
Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America
July 15, 2021
'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'
July 15, 2021
Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again
July 8, 2021
The Chinese Point of View
July 4, 2021
'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'
July 4, 2021
'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'
July 4, 2021
Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading
July 1, 2021
From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich
July 1, 2021
'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100
July 1, 2021
European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'
June 27, 2021
'How China & America Should Compete'
June 27, 2021
'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'
June 27, 2021
'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'
June 27, 2021
'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'
June 24, 2021
Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'
June 24, 2021

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