CHINAMacroReporter

3. 'Forging Coalitions'

'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell

‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
by

Kurt Campbell | nominee, Indo-Pacific Coordinator, NSC & Rush Doshi | Brookings

|

Foreign Affairs

January 13, 2021
3. 'Forging Coalitions'

‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’

‘Although the idea that the United States should “work with allies” is almost a cliché, the challenges to doing so are significant.’

  • ‘Maintaining the existing Indo-Pacific order will inevitably require a broad coalition, and the very members that might join may not see the value of such a combined approach until the present system is irreversibly damaged.’
  • ‘The need for allies and partners is often evident only after the status quo is overturned.’

‘Distant European leaders are inevitably less concerned about China’s assertiveness than the Indo-Pacific states next door.’

  • ‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’
  • ‘That task is made more difficult by Beijing’s economic power: last month, China used last-minute concessions to successfully pull the EU into a major bilateral investment agreement despite concerns that the deal would complicate a unified transatlantic approach under the Biden administration.’

‘Given these limitations, the United States will need to be flexible and innovative as it builds partnerships.’

  • ‘Rather than form a grand coalition focused on every issue, the United States should pursue bespoke or ad hoc bodies focused on individual problems, such as the D-10 proposed by the United Kingdom (the G-7 democracies plus Australia, India, and South Korea). These coalitions will be most urgent for questions of trade, technology, supply chains, and standards.’
  • ‘Other coalitions, though, might focus on military deterrence by expanding the so-called Quad currently composed of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, infrastructure investment through cooperation with Japan and India, and human rights through the two-dozen states that criticized Beijing’s internment camps in Xinjiang and its assault on Hong Kong’s autonomy.’

‘The purpose of these different coalitions—and this broader strategy—is to create balance in some cases, bolster consensus on important facets of the regional order in others, and send a message that there are risks to China’s present course.’

  • ‘This task will be among the most challenging in the recent history of American statecraft.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

August 24, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
keep reading
July 23, 2023
‘The U.S. Has Tactics, But No China Strategy’ | Bill Zarit
‘The U.S. needs national review of outward investment to China, but it has to be narrow and targeted and done in conjunction with our allies and partners.’
keep reading
July 10, 2023
‘Is Xi Coup-proof?’ (after the march on Moscow, I have to ask)
What about the guys without guns? So if Mr. Xi doesn’t face a rogue army or a military coup… How about a coup by Party elites?
keep reading
March 9, 2017
So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story
[CHINADebate Presentation] One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.—Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?
keep reading
February 27, 2017
Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?
'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. as a global leader anytime soon.'—Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?' Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S. What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S. So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet?
keep reading
February 15, 2017
C-to-C Internet Commerce- From Taobao Shops to Taobao Villages
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
Why SOE Reform is So Tough
'...SOEs need to reform, because on one hand, many of them have achieved a lot for China. On the other hand, they've actually created quite a lot of harm, in particular in the areas of overcapacity but also in the areas of corruption we've talked about.'
keep reading
February 2, 2017
AmCham China Chairmen's View From China in D.C. 2017
[AmCham China & CHINADebate U.S.—China Trade/Business Series 2017] Terrific insights from leaders on the ground in China. While in D.C. the Chairmen joined us in a panel discussion and individual interviews about U.S. business in China, U.S.-China relations, trade, and much more. We present their views in a 13 part series. Sheryl WuDunn, business executive, lecturer, best-selling author, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize moderated.
keep reading
February 1, 2017
'Chinese Politics In The Xi Jinping Era'
[Malcolm Riddell Interviewed Cheng Li] 'If you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy – which leader belongs to which faction. : 'China is a one–party state, but that does not necessarily mean Chinese leadership is a monolithic group with leaders who have the same ideas, same background, same world views, same politics. No, they're divided.'
keep reading
December 7, 2016
First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China
The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
keep reading
October 18, 2016
How Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent are Changing the Rules of Business
[An Interview of Ed Tse, the author of 'China's Disruptors: Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent... how innovative 'Disruptor' companies are restructuring China's economy.' ] The real force in Chinese economy is increasingly private companies, not SOEs. / Leading private Chinese companies are innovative and ambitious
keep reading
July 14, 2016
How 'Brexit' Will Impact China's Economy
David Dollar gives you fresh insights to better incorporate Brexit's impact into your analyses of China and global economies & markets, including: 1. Why, after the Brexit vote, did the Shanghai Stock Market fall only 1%? 2. How will Brexit affect the value of the RMB and China's currency policy? 3. How will Brexit impact trade with the EU, China’s largest trading partner? 4. Why, in the larger geopolitical perspective, could China be the big winner from Brexit?
keep reading
July 2, 2016
China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?
100s of Cities Bubble Up & Down As Policy Makers Press the Levers China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities. Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.