CHINAMacroReporter

'Fanning the Flames of War'

I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
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CHINADebate

May 2, 2021
'Fanning the Flames of War'

I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’

  • These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’
  • ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.

This being from someone for whom I have great respect, I replied with a long explanation.

  • As I was writing, it occurred to me that it wouldn’t be a bad idea to briefly explain, especially to those new to the whole CHINADebate project, just what the aims are.
  • The following is from my reply.

‘When I started CHINADebate in 2012 [beginning with the CHINARoundtable, in-person discussions between top China experts and senior business and finance executives], my aim was to bring the diverse views of China experts - not my views - to the participants.’

  • ‘Carrying this over to the China Macro Reporter, I try to bring the diverse written views of these experts to a broader audience.’

‘I find those analyses by reading, every day, dozens of pieces of analysis - more than anyone for whom China is not the day job would be want to go through.’

  • ‘I select the key insights to give non-specialists the flow of discussion about China.’
  • ‘If any of the selected pieces are of special interest to the reader, he or she can click the link and read the full essay.’

‘I am at pains not to select writings that just reflect my views but that reflect the current debate.’

  • ‘And I likewise careful to not cherry-pick quotes that reflect my views.’

‘As for my posts ‘fanning the flames of war,’ those hawkish posts are part of the current discussion on China.’

  • ‘But I also seek opposing views even though the polarization of views on China over the past few years have made this more difficult.’
  • ‘For example, I have teed up Kishore Mahubani's (author of 'Has China Won?') “Was Trump Right or Wrong on China? Biden’s Answer Will Shape the Future.” ’ [In today’s issue, below]

‘I don't agree with Mr. Mahubani's views.’

  • ‘But I do believe they are important as a counterbalance to near-perfect chorus of hawks. So I am emphasizing it.’

‘I hope this explains why I feel I am the same Malcolm, more or less, you know:’

  • ‘Still trying to present diverse views on China to help an informed audience to make their own decisions. Not pushing an agenda.’

‘While I don't believe I have changed in my efforts, the situation between the U.S. and China has changed.’

  • ‘And that is reflected in the preponderance of hawkish posts.’
  • ‘Not because I am intentionally putting forth inflammatory rhetoric but because that IS the state of the debate today.’

‘It's hard for me to back down until they back down.’

  • ‘Otherwise, I am not doing the work I intend to do.’

And there you have it.

No recent events this week that generated commentaries.

  • So today more big picture thought pieces.

And these come from two long essays and a long interview, so the summaries likewise ended up being pretty long.

  • For that reason, I've just included just three posts today.

More

CHINAMacroReporter
June 12, 2022
'The competitiveness of China is eroding.'
Understanding the drivers of China’s rise to supply chain prominence gives (me anyway) insights to help analyze the changes – or not – of ‘decoupling.’
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June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
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May 30, 2022
Is Xi Jinping China's Biggest Problem?
And while the impact of Zero Covid may be relatively short-lived, the impact of Mr. Xi’s return to the socialist path will be felt for a very long time, both in China and the world. So the impact will no doubt be felt as long as Mr. Xi leads China.
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May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
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May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
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May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
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May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
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May 27, 2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
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May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
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May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
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May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
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May 27, 2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
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May 27, 2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
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May 20, 2021
'Apple in China: No Plan B'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
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May 20, 2021
'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'
‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
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May 20, 2021
'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'
"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
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May 20, 2021
‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’
‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
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May 20, 2021
Apple in China
‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
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May 20, 2021
'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
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May 15, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
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May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
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May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
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May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
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May 15, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
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May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
keep reading
May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
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May 15, 2021
'After Xi: China's potentially destabilising succession crisis'
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’ ‘In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce.’
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May 15, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
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May 12, 2021
The Poem that Cost Billions
The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
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May 10, 2021
'A 1,100-Year-Old Poem Cost Meituan’s Outspoken CEO US $2.5 Billions'
‘On Monday, because of an 1,100-year old poem about events 2,200 years ago posted by the founder of food delivery giant Meituan, investors panicked, and sank the company’s market cap by $15.6 billion. And Meituan CEO Wang Xing, who posted the poem, lost $2.5 billion of his wealth.’
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May 9, 2021
'The Housing Bubble That Just Won’t Pop'
‘China’s cities are plagued by a diverging trend: high demand and exorbitant prices for residential properties in tier 1 cities and yet an oversupply in smaller, lower-tiered cities.’
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May 7, 2021
'Would China really invade Taiwan?'
‘Is Taiwan really "the most dangerous place on earth?" No. Or at least, not right now.’
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May 7, 2021
'Don't Help China By Hyping Risk Of War Over Taiwan'
‘China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict.’ ‘Beijing's goal is to constantly remind Taiwan's people of its growing power, induce pessimism about Taiwan's future, deepen splits within the island's political system and show that outside powers are impotent to counter its flexes.' ‘Its approach is guided by the Chinese aphorism, "Once ripe, the melon will drop from its stem [瓜熟蒂落]," ’‘This strategy may require more time than war, but it would come at less cost and risk to Beijing.’
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May 7, 2021
'China Threat: A "perception gap" between the U.S. and Taiwan'
‘While the U.S. talks up the medium-term military threat, the democratic island sees the moves as part of a bigger, more immediate problem: "gray zone" warfare from Beijing that is meant to wear down the morale of not just the Taiwanese military, but also the island's people.’
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May 7, 2021
'The most dangerous place on Earth'
‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
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May 7, 2021
'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'
‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
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