CHINAMacroReporter

'Dominating the Digital Silk Road'

‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports the Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’
by

Task Force Report on China’s Belt & Road

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Council on Foreign Relations

March 31, 2021
'Dominating the Digital Silk Road'
BIG IDEA | ‘BRI enables Chinese technology companies to penetrate and dominate markets.’
‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports the Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’

‘Announced in 2015, the Digital Silk Road is a more focused undertaking than BRI writ large.’

  • ‘A handful of China’s national champions—Huawei, ZTE, China Mobile, China Telecom, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and JD, as well as a few others—are encouraged to build out digital infrastructure in BRI countries, with less overlap and a clearer division of labor.’

‘Tencent, Baidu, and JD, as well as a few others—are encouraged to build out digital infrastructure in BRI countries, with less overlap and a clearer division of labor.’

  • ‘China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has provided clear direction to these companies, identifying six core areas for the Digital Silk Road: 5G technology, smart cities, utilization of the Beidou satellite system, communication infrastructure, network connectivity, and telecommunications services.’

‘Under the Digital Silk Road, indigenous Chinese ICT firms receive state backing that gives them three sets of advantages:’

  1. ‘First, companies such as Huawei, Hikvision, and ZTE gain preferential government treatment through policy support and major lines of credit through CDB, China EXIM, and state-owned commercial banks. This in turn allows them to sell their products 30 to 40 percent more cheaply than non-Chinese competitors.’
  2. ‘Second, Beijing also extends credit to specific Digital Silk Road projects and countries to allow them to make major purchases from Chinese companies. For example, China EXIM financed 85 percent of the China-Pakistan Fiber-Optic Project and loaned to Nigeria the full cost of a Huawei-built 5G network.’
  3. ‘Third, policy backing and pricing advantages allow Chinese companies to receive preferential terms when they negotiate deals with local governments.’

‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’

‘For a technology company such as Huawei, moving into a new market can be expensive—a problem alleviated by government subsidies that make Huawei’s products significantly cheaper than its competitors and Chinese financing to Huawei’s customers that enables them to purchase these already cheaper products at lower interest rates with more generous grace periods.’

  • ‘Once Huawei is in place, it is relatively cheaper for additional Chinese companies to follow it into that market or for Huawei to gain a foothold in adjacent markets.’

‘China often offers BRI countries complete technology packages, including cloud services, mobile payments, smart cities, and social media applications from a combination of Chinese companies.’

  • ‘Once these technology suites are embedded, switching to non-Chinese providers becomes far less likely and more costly for local operators, especially because telecommunications companies generally cannot mix and match components—using Huawei equipment alongside Ericsson or Nokia, for example.’

‘Moreover, if Huawei builds the entire 5G network for a given Digital Silk Road country and its neighbors, this raises the chances that it will be chosen to upgrade those systems when newer technologies become available.’

  • ‘Huawei has already finalized more 5G contracts than any other telecom company, half of which are for 5G networks in Europe (see figure 11. above).’
  • ‘In Africa, Huawei has built 70 percent of the fourth-generation (4G) networks on the continent and has signed the only formal agreement on 5G on the continent.’
  • ‘In all, Huawei has shipped seventy thousand 5G base stations globally.'

‘The export of Huawei telecom equipment along the Digital Silk Road has also enabled the company’s share of global telecom equipment to increase by 40 percent in the years since BRI was rolled out.’

‘The Digital Silk Road provides additional backing to Chinese companies to build foreign digital ecosystems.’

  • ‘Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, has come to dominate e-commerce in Malaysia, for example, and its affiliate Ant Financial has subsequently established cooperation agreements with Malaysian banks, leading to much stronger bilateral commercial and financial ties.’
  • ‘Malaysia is an outlier in the extent of its embrace of Chinese e-commerce, but the Chinese government has also begun a push to export data centers, including through ASEAN, which could make members depend more on China for data storage, analysis, and exploitation.’

‘Through the Digital Silk Road, China uses the initial sales of digital infrastructure to set accompanying standards.’

  • ‘The success of Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE in building 5G networks and setting standards for these networks in Africa and parts of Asia is making it difficult for Western companies to sell similar technologies in these regions.’
  • ‘The concern for non-Chinese firms is China’s ability to use initial sales, along with service and maintenance contracts—and any accompanying standards—to lock in market share for Chinese companies, particularly in those sectors where switching to a different provider is difficult and expensive.’
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May 27, 2021
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‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
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May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
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May 27, 2021
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‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
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May 27, 2021
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‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
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May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
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May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
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May 27, 2021
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May 27, 2021
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May 20, 2021
'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'
‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
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May 20, 2021
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May 20, 2021
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‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
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May 20, 2021
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‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
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May 20, 2021
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“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
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May 15, 2021
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May 15, 2021
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May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
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May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
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May 15, 2021
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May 15, 2021
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‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
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May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
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May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
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May 15, 2021
'After Xi: China's potentially destabilising succession crisis'
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’ ‘In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce.’
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May 15, 2021
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‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
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May 7, 2021
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‘China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict.’ ‘Beijing's goal is to constantly remind Taiwan's people of its growing power, induce pessimism about Taiwan's future, deepen splits within the island's political system and show that outside powers are impotent to counter its flexes.' ‘Its approach is guided by the Chinese aphorism, "Once ripe, the melon will drop from its stem [瓜熟蒂落]," ’‘This strategy may require more time than war, but it would come at less cost and risk to Beijing.’
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May 7, 2021
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May 7, 2021
'The most dangerous place on Earth'
‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
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