‘Even if China played no role at all in ousting Suu Kyi, Beijing is likely to gain still greater sway over the country.’

‘Before Monday’s coup in Myanmar, the country’s relations with China already were complicated by Chinese investments in its infrastructure and the Myanmar military’s campaigns along their shared border.’

• ‘China has invested billions of dollars in Myanmar mines, oil and gas pipelines and other infrastructure and is its biggest trading partner.’
• ‘And China has massive commitments to projects in mining, hydropower and other construction, part of the $21.5 billion it has pledged in investment in Myanmar.’
• ‘An anchor of Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative” to build infrastructure across much of Asia linking its economy to the rest of the world, it will give China coveted overland access to the Bay of Bengal.’
• ‘Suu Kyi’s government had been slowly moving ahead on such projects, some of which face strong local opposition.’

‘The coup deposed national leader Aung San Suu Kyi a little over a year after Chinese President Xi Jinping made a show of support to her with the first visit by a head of state from Beijing to Myanmar since 2001 and 33 agreements on a wide range of issues.’

• ‘Suu Kyi has shifted closer to Beijing in the past few years.’
• ‘ “It was always a risk that the military would step in to try and shore up their power,” Champa Patel, director of the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House in London said in an emailed statement.’
• ‘ “Their insecurity has deepened as (Suu Kyi) consolidated her power within the country and deepened ties with countries such as China.” ’

‘It was partly a backlash against China’s growing dominance of Myanmar’s economy a decade ago that led the previous junta to shift toward democratic reforms and the civilian government that enabled Suu Kyi to join Parliament and become the nation’s de facto leader, even as the military retained ultimate power.’

• ‘ “It was always a risk that the military would step in to try and shore up their power,” Champa Patel, director of the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House in London said in an emailed statement.’
• ‘ “Their insecurity has deepened as (Suu Kyi) consolidated her power within the country and deepened ties with countries such as China.” ’

‘Beijing’s initial reaction to the coup was measured.’

• ‘On Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China was studying the situation, describing Myanmar as a “friendly neighbor.” ’
• ‘He urged Myanmar to properly handle the situation according to its laws and constitution and “maintain political and social stability.”' '
• ‘But while China’s ruling Communist Party tends to favor fellow authoritarian regimes, it has had a fractious history with Myanmar’s military, sometimes related to its campaigns against ethnic Chinese minority groups and the drug trade along their long, mountainous border.’

‘Some have speculated that Beijing might have given a covert nod to the generals.'

• ‘But while the coup may lead Myanmar’s leaders to lean more heavily on support from China, supplier of most of their weapons and one of the country’s biggest sources of foreign investment, researcher Zhao Gancheng at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, says it was an unwelcome disruption.’
• ‘ “As a neighboring country, I can’t see anything good for China, given that all of China’s investments and infrastructure construction need a stable environment,” Zhao said. “China is concerned about this development,” he said.’

‘Even if China played no role at all in ousting Suu Kyi, Beijing is likely to gain still greater sway over the country, analysts say.’

• ‘That’s especially likely if the U.S. and other Western governments impose sanctions to try to punish the regime.’

‘Regardless of what internal politics, antagonisms and personal ambitions might have driven Min Aung Hliang and other military leaders to seize power, China is bound to continue to expand its influence in Myanmar given the huge projects already under construction and the depth of Chinese involvement in businesses ranging from casinos, factories and property development to pipelines and ports.’

• ‘ “China will have greater leverage to pull Myanmar further into the orbit of its own plans for economic development,” said John G. Dale, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia.’