'The Risk of War With China Is Greatest in the Next Decade'

‘The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’

‘In foreign policy circles, it has become conventional wisdom that the United States and China are running a “superpower marathon” that may last a century.’

• ‘But the sharpest phase of that competition will be a decade-long sprint.’

‘The Sino-American contest for supremacy won’t be settled anytime soon.’

• ‘Yet history and China’s recent trajectory suggest that the moment of maximum danger is just a few years away.’

‘China has entered a particularly perilous period as a rising power:’

• ‘China has the money and muscle to challenge the United States in key areas and to disrupt the existing order’.’
• ‘Yet its window of opportunity may be closing fast.’

‘Since 2007, China’s annual economic growth rate has dropped by more than half, and productivity has declined by ten percent.’

• ‘Meanwhile, debt has ballooned eightfold and is on pace to total 335 percent of GDP by the end of 2020.’
• ‘China has little hope of reversing these trends, because it will lose 200 million working-age adults and gain 300 million senior citizens over the next 30 years.’

‘And as economic growth falls, the dangers of social and political unrest rise. Chinese leaders know this:’

• ‘President Xi Jinping has given multiple speeches warning about the possibility of a Soviet-style collapse, and Chinese elites are moving their money and children abroad’

‘Meanwhile, global anti-China sentiment has soared to levels not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.’

• ‘Nearly a dozen countries have suspended or canceled participation in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.’
• ‘Another 16 countries, including eight of the world’s ten largest economies, have banned or severely restricted use of Huawei products in their 5G networks.'
• ‘India has been turning hard against China since a clash on their shared border killed 20 soldiers in June.’
• ‘Japan has ramped up military spending, turned amphibious ships into aircraft carriers, and strung missile launchers along the Ryukyu Islands near Taiwan.’
• ‘The European Union has labeled China a “systemic rival.” ’
• ‘And the United Kingdom, France, and Germany are sending naval patrols to counter Beijing’s expansion in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. On multiple fronts, China is facing the blowback created by its own behavior.’

‘The United States faces a pressing and volatile threat:'

• ‘an already powerful but insecure China beset by slowing growth and intensifying hostility abroad.’  

‘The good news for the United States is that over the long term, competition with China may prove more manageable than many pessimists believe.’

• ‘Americans may one day look back on China the way they now view the Soviet Union—as a dangerous rival whose evident strengths concealed stagnation and vulnerability.’

‘The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’

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'History Rhymes'

‘Historically, the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’

‘Many people assume that rising revisionists pose the greatest danger to international security.’

• ‘But historically, the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’

‘World War I is a classic example.’

• ‘Germany’s rising power formed the strategic backdrop to that conflict, but German fears of decline triggered the ultimate decision for war.’
• ‘Russia’s growing military power and mobility menaced Germany’s eastern flank; new French conscription laws were changing the balance in the West; and a tightening Franco-Russian-British entente was leaving Germany surrounded.’
• ‘German leaders ran such catastrophic risks in the July crisis for fear that geopolitical greatness would elude them if they did not act quickly.’

‘The same logic explains imperial Japan’s fatal gamble in 1941, after the U.S. oil embargo and naval rearmament presented Tokyo with a closing window of opportunity to dominate the Asia-Pacific.’

‘In the 1970s, Soviet global expansion peaked as Moscow’s military buildup matured and the slowing of the Soviet economy created an impetus to lock in geopolitical gains.’  

Like these other nations, ‘China has entered a particularly perilous period as a rising power.’

• ‘China has the money and muscle to challenge the United States in key areas.'
• ‘Yet China’s window of opportunity may be closing fast, as it faces a pronounced economic slowdown and a growing international backlash.’

‘Over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain while it can.’