CHINAMacroReporter

China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
by

|

CHINADebate

March 4, 2021
China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses.

  • Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S.
  • And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.'
  • They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’

But Mr. Xi’s subordinates reportedly don’t provide him with unbiased facts and analyses about the U.S.

  • And in the U.S. the calm assessment needed for rational China strategy is upended by the competition among politicians to see who can be toughest on China.

Thus, the chance of either side getting a clear picture of the other and making sound policy based on that is slim.

  • And that is dangerous.

1 | Misperceptions, Miscalculations, & War

‘History is replete with cases of misperception about changing power balances.’

  • ‘To prevent a new cold or hot war,the US and China must avoid exaggerated fears and misperceptions about changing power relations.’

‘Today, some Chinese analysts underestimate America’s resilience and predict Chinese dominance, but this, too, could turn out to be a dangerous miscalculation,’ writes Joe Nye of the Harvard Kennedy School.

  • ‘It is equally dangerous for Americans to over- or underestimate Chinese power, and the US contains groups with economic and political incentives to do both.’

2 | Xi Jinping Seeks a Balanced Assessment of the U.S.

Xi Jinping seems to be aware of the danger of miscalculation.

Chris Buckley of The New York Times reports in ‘ “The East Is Rising”: Xi Maps Out China’s Post-Covid Ascent’:

  • ‘Xi Jinping has struck a confident posture as he looks to secure China’s prosperity and power in a post-Covid world, saying that the country is entering a time of opportunity when “the East is rising and the West is declining.” ’

‘But behind closed doors, China’s Communist Party leader has also issued a blunt caveat to officials: Do not count out our competitors, above all the United States.’

  • ‘ “The biggest source of chaos in the present-day world is the United States,” Mr. Xi said, a county official in northwest China recounted in a speech published last week on a government website.’
  • ‘He quoted Mr. Xi as saying: “The United States is the biggest threat to our country’s development and security.” ’

‘That warning, echoed in similar recent public comments by senior officials close to Mr. Xi, reinforces how he is seeking to balance confidence and caution as China strides ahead while other countries continue to grapple with the pandemic.’

  • ‘His double-sided pronouncements reflect an effort to keep China on guard because, despite its success at home, it faces deep distrust in Washington and other Western capitals.’
  • ‘Although China is growing stronger, Xi has said, there are still many ways in which “the West is strong and the East is weak,” officials have recounted in speeches recently issued on local party websites.’

3 | The U.S. Seeks a Balanced Assessment of China

The U.S. seems to be going through its own reevaluation of China.

  • Nye points out:

‘Balances of power are hard to judge.’

  • ‘Those who proclaim Pax Sinica and American decline fail to take account of the full range of power resources.’

‘Even if China surpasses the US to become the world’s largest economy, national income is not the only measure of geopolitical power.’

  • ‘The US will retain some long-term power advantages that contrast with areas of Chinese vulnerability.’

And on the heels of Dr. Nye’s essay comes ‘China Is Not Ten Feet Tall: How Alarmism Undermines American Strategy,’ by Brookings’ Ryan Hass: ‘China, the story goes, is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.’

  • ‘Among the most eager purveyors of this story line are China’s government-affiliated media outlets. Projecting self-assurance, they have also gone out of their way to contrast their own achievements with plentiful examples of American dysfunction.’
  • ‘ “Time and momentum are on our side,” Chinese President Xi Jinping declared in a speech at the Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum last fall. In January, Chen Yixin, a top security official, told a Chinese Communist Party study session, “The rise of the East and decline of the West has become a trend.” ’

‘Authoritarian systems excel at showcasing their strengths and concealing their weaknesses.’

  • ‘But policymakers in Washington must be able to distinguish between the image Beijing presents and the realities it confronts.’
  • ‘For all the obstacles facing the United States, those facing China are considerably greater.’

‘During the Cold War, Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger cautioned against “ten-foot-tall syndrome”: the tendency among U.S. policymakers to view their Soviet competitors as towering figures of immense strength and overwhelming intellect.’

  • ‘A similar syndrome has taken hold in the United States today, and the harms are not just analytical.’

‘Concentrating on China’s strengths without accounting for its vulnerabilities creates anxiety. Anxiety breeds insecurity.’

  • ‘Insecurity leads to overreaction, and overreaction produces bad decisions that undermine the United States’ own competitiveness. Seeing China clearly is the first step toward getting China policy right.’

‘Washington’s bipartisan move in recent years to a hard-line approach to China has been driven above all by Beijing:’

  • ‘Chinese leaders have grown more impatiently aggressive in the pursuit of their ambitions and have increasingly leaned on nationalism, particularly as ideology and economic performance have become diminishing sources of social cohesion.’

‘But much of the shift in Washington has also been driven by a growing sense of panic about China’s strengths, leading to a bout of American insecurity.’

  • ‘Such panic is unlikely to prove constructive: an alarmed focus on degrading China’s strengths risks causing the United States to focus too little on the more essential task of bolstering its own.’

‘The United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’

  • ‘Self-confidence should foster a steady, patient, and wise response to China’s rise—one that can attract broad support at home and abroad.’

4 | U.S. Politics Nixes Any Balanced Assessment of China

But the need for this kind of calm assessment of U.S.-China balance of power runs headlong in U.S. politics.’

  • As Bill Reinsch of the Center for Strategic & International Studies wrote in ‘Double Feature’:

‘Speaking of China, the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando has produced an “I told you so” moment that is too good to ignore.’

  • ‘Behind the gold statue of Trump, who appears to be wearing American flag boxers, are no less than six panels discussing China on topics like “China Subverts America” and “Corporate America Surrendering to China.” '
  • ‘Featured speakers, most of whom are already running for president in 2024, are trying to outdo each other in their hostility to China and in their accusations that Democrats in general, and President Biden in particular, are soft on China and busy selling out our country.’
  • ‘As I predicted in multiple past columns, the hysteria has begun and is not going to end anytime soon.’

‘Unfortunately, what we heard at CPAC and are likely to hear from Republicans over the next four years is attacks on the fecklessness of U.S. companies that do business with China and on the Biden administration for not sufficiently punishing China.’

‘This is the politics of blame.’

  • ‘Rather than engage in a thoughtful debate about the best strategy, it simply identifies the guilty parties and attacks them along with the Chinese.'

‘Biden’s task is complicated by Congressional Democrats who yield to nobody in their ability to maintain high dudgeon.’

  • ‘The biggest difference between the parties is that the Democrats at least put more of the blame where it belongs—on the Chinese rather than the president—and spend more time talking about how to implement “running faster” solutions.’

‘Since all parties want to take a hard line, it makes sense to stop chest-beating about who is the toughest and instead work together to fashion a bipartisan strategy that will actually accomplish something rather than just produce sound bites for the next election.’

  • ‘This is too important for hysteria.’

As if that matters.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 7, 2021
'Brookings experts analyze President Biden’s first foreign policy speech: Focus China'
'To respond effectively, Biden argued, America will need to rebuild leverage, e.g., by pursuing domestic renewal, investing in alliances, reestablishing U.S. leadership on the world stage, and restoring American authority in advocating for universal values.'
keep reading
February 7, 2021
'Why the ‘Longer Telegram’ Won’t Solve the China Challenge'
‘Perhaps the most problematic aspect of the 'Longer Telegram's' emphasis on Xi—“All U.S. political and policy responses to China therefore should be focused through the principal lens of Xi himself”—is the author’s conclusion that Washington should be seeking to escape from, and even try to effect the removal of, Xi’s leadership because that could restore U.S.-China relations to a potentially constructive path: “its pre-2013 path—i.e., the pre-Xi strategic status quo.” ’
keep reading
February 4, 2021
Why Beijing Is Bringing Big Tech to Heel
‘Beijing’s recent antitrust efforts are motivated less by worries about the tyrannical nature of monopoly power than by the belief that China’s tech giants are insufficiently committed to promoting the goal advanced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of transformative technological innovation—and thus may be undermining the effectiveness of Chinese industrial policy.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries
‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'The Threat the U.S. Isn't Answering'
‘If BRI meets little competition or resistance, Beijing could become the hub of global trade, set important technical standards that would disadvantage non-Chinese companies, lock countries into carbon-intensive power generation, have greater influence over countries’ political decisions, and acquire more power-projection capabilities for its military.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'China Is Missing from the Great Inflation Debate'
‘Once again, massive fiscal spending in the United States has invited warnings of inflation and triggered dark memories of the 1970s. But these fears are based on a model that has since been obliterated by economic realities – not least the rise of China, which has fundamentally reshaped the US and global economies.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'Dominating the Digital Silk Road'
‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports the Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'Biden administration maintains Trump policy on Hong Kong'
'State department concludes territory should not receive preferential treatment under US law.'
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'China Owns, Partially Owns, or Operates 93 Ports'
‘Chinese firms own, partially own, or operate at least ninety-three ports across the globe.’
keep reading
March 30, 2021
'Profit or principle is the hard choice for foreign companies in China' George Magnus
‘Business risks for foreign companies in China are increasing after the recent exchange of sanctions between Beijing and western governments.’‘For foreign companies in China, the options seem delicately balanced. If they stand up for principles, they may put revenues at risk and will incur extra costs as they develop new supply chains. Yet if they prioritise their China profits, they could do irretrievable damage to their brands at home and in other markets, falling foul of shareholders and changing governance requirements.’‘It is an invidious choice but the latter is likely to be far more damaging to longer term performance and earnings, and corrosive of trust in the brand.’
keep reading
March 30, 2021
'How China keeps stumbling on the global stage' John Pomfret
‘Across the globe, Xi’s diplomatic representatives in Europe, Beijing, Hong Kong, Canada, Australia and elsewhere, are lifting up rocks and smashing their own feet.’‘The moves are befuddling — with a buoyant economy and a practically covid-free country, China is poised to see its influence rise if it plays it smart. But it’s not; instead, it’s alienating individuals and nations across the world.’‘I’ve been studying China for my entire adult life and I have to admit to being bewildered by China’s performance.’‘But I’m in good company. Thirty-one years ago, the great political scientist Lucian Pye wrote, “Just when all appears to be going well, Chinese officials create problems for seemingly unaccountable reasons.” ’
keep reading
March 30, 2021
'An Alliance of Autocracies? China Wants to Lead a New World Order.'
‘The world is increasingly dividing into distinct if not purely ideological camps, with both China and the United States hoping to lure supporters.’
keep reading
March 29, 2021
'Global Cycle Notes: U-Turn': China
‘A U-shaped recovery in the services sector beckons, but it’s still difficult to describe just what it will look like. No event in economic history compares, and the range of outcomes for wages, prices, employment, and financial markets is large.’
keep reading
March 28, 2021
‘At a Crossroads: The Next Chapter for FinTech in China’
‘As financial innovation has gained traction and the firms driving it have grown into sizeable players, the dynamic between innovators and regulators has begun to shift. Regulatory agencies have started to be more proactive in supervising the activities of technology firms after realizing that the size of many technology firms and FinTechs means they could threaten financial stability and peace in society if their innovation efforts and business practices were overly aggressive.’
keep reading
March 28, 2021
'New Trade Representative Says U.S. Isn’t Ready to Lift China Tariffs'
'The U.S. isn’t ready to lift tariffs on Chinese imports in the near future, but might be open to trade negotiations with Beijing, according to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai.'
keep reading
March 28, 2021
China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it
After the National People’s Congress, ‘election reform’ in Hong Kong, the dustup between the U.S. and China in Anchorage, and China’s going all ‘Wolf Warrior’ on the EU, that’s not such a bad thing.
keep reading
March 26, 2021
Beijing Targets American Business-2
'American businessmen, wishing for simple, lucrative commercial ties, have long resisted viewing U.S.-China relations as an ideological struggle. But strategic guidance issued by the leaders of both countries make clear the matter is settled: The ideological dimension of the competition is inescapable, even central.'
keep reading
March 26, 2021
'H&M, Nike Pay With China Boycotts on Xinjiang Human Rights Stance'
‘While both Western and Asian companies have frequently been targets of Chinese nationalism over the years, the latest flurry signals a shift in strategy by President Xi Jinping’s government as it confronts a more unified approach from the U.S. and its allies.’
keep reading
March 26, 2021
'The Illiberal Tide'
But even more problematic is that the reporting on any given action by another country may look so benign to the non-Chinese reader that he or she dismisses it as something China, even when it reacts forcefully, couldn’t be serious about. That is a mistake. Too often what looks ‘benign’ to the rest of the world is as serious as a train wreck to Xi Jinping.
keep reading
March 26, 2021
Beijing Targets American Business-1
‘Beijing’s message is unmistakable: You must choose.’‘If you want to do business in China, it must be at the expense of American values. ‘‘You will meticulously ignore the genocide of ethnic and religious minorities inside China’s borders; you must disregard that Beijing has reneged on its major promises—including the international treaty guaranteeing a “high degree of autonomy” for Hong Kong; and you must stop engaging with security-minded officials in your own capital unless it’s to lobby them on Beijing’s behalf.’
keep reading
March 25, 2021
China Goes All 'Wolf Warrior' on the U.S. & the EU
Today is the Tracker’s first issue. Covered here are two events where China went all 'Wolf Warrior' first on the U.S. and then on the EU.
keep reading
March 25, 2021
3 | China explains why it is going all 'Wolf Warrior' on the EU
China has found that bullying works a lot of the time, Why is China engaging in "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy
keep reading
March 25, 2021
2 | In Anchorage, Yang Spoke for the Party Leadership
‘Yang's temper tantrum has been interpreted by some commentators as being all about Chinese domestic politics. But it would be a mistake to see Yang's performance as mere bluster designed for home consumption. In Anchorage, he was speaking for the top leadership of the Communist Party.’
keep reading
March 25, 2021
2 | More to come?
‘This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully.’
keep reading
March 25, 2021
1 | Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties
'Mr. Yang, also noted “important disagreements” remained, and in remarks to Chinese state media suggested Beijing wouldn’t back down.'
keep reading
March 25, 2021
1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China
"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."
keep reading
March 24, 2021
'There Will Not Be a New Cold War' Thomas Christensen
‘China’s vital position in the global production chain and the lack of struggle for ideological supremacy between authoritarianism and liberal democracy mean that the rise of a new Cold War is unlikely.’
keep reading
March 21, 2021
Just About in Place
To help us understand the makeup of the team, The Wire China has put together a great chart with bios of each member.
keep reading
March 21, 2021
'A Taiwan Crisis May End the American Empire' Niall Ferguson
‘No matter what other issues Kissinger raised — Vietnam, Korea, the Soviets — Zhou steered the conversation back to Taiwan, “the only question between us two.” ’
keep reading
March 20, 2021
'After the protests - China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it'
‘The old Hong Kong is gone. Judge Mr Xi’s China by what it builds in its place.’
keep reading
March 17, 2021
How to Meet the China Challenge
How the Biden administration characterizes the China – strategic competitor, rival, enemy, and the like – and how it develops strategies – containment, confrontation, competition, cooperation, or some combination of these - will have an impact, to a greater or lesser degree, on most every industry and every market.
keep reading
March 13, 2021
'China All but Ends Hong Kong Democracy With "Patriots Only" Rule'
‘The National People’s Congress on Thursday approved a drastic overhaul of election rules for Hong Kong that would most likely bar many pro-democracy politicians from competing in elections, cementing Beijing’s grip over the territory.'
keep reading
March 13, 2021
'Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget'
'Like previous years, the first day of the new National People’s Congress session was highlighted by the widely anticipated announcement of China’s 2021 defense budget. This year it is set at 1.36 trillion yuan ($209.16 billion), a 6.8 percent increase from the 1.27 trillion yuan budget set last year.’
keep reading
March 13, 2021
Xi’s Gambit: China Plans for a World Without American Technology
‘China’s new five-year plan, made public on Friday, at the National People’s Congress (NPC), called tech development a matter of national security, not just economic development, a break from the previous plan.’
keep reading
March 13, 2021
'The five-year plan's big target - A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world'
The National People’s Congress concluded on Friday, March 11. As I’ve mentioned before, analyses of the impact of the plans and policies on China and the world will start to come out in a week or two. In the meantime and to keep you immediately informed, today’s issue covers the NPC’s outcomes more generally, beginning with a full summary from The Economist.
keep reading
March 12, 2021
‘Enter the Trump Buddha'
“Trump, the Buddha of Knowing of the Western Paradise.”
keep reading
March 11, 2021
Artificial Intelligence: How to Beat China
‘China is organized, resourced, and determined to win the technology competition. AI is central to China’s global expansion, economic and military power, and domestic stability.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.