CHINAMacroReporter

China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
by

|

CHINADebate

March 4, 2021
China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses.

  • Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S.
  • And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.'
  • They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’

But Mr. Xi’s subordinates reportedly don’t provide him with unbiased facts and analyses about the U.S.

  • And in the U.S. the calm assessment needed for rational China strategy is upended by the competition among politicians to see who can be toughest on China.

Thus, the chance of either side getting a clear picture of the other and making sound policy based on that is slim.

  • And that is dangerous.

1 | Misperceptions, Miscalculations, & War

‘History is replete with cases of misperception about changing power balances.’

  • ‘To prevent a new cold or hot war,the US and China must avoid exaggerated fears and misperceptions about changing power relations.’

‘Today, some Chinese analysts underestimate America’s resilience and predict Chinese dominance, but this, too, could turn out to be a dangerous miscalculation,’ writes Joe Nye of the Harvard Kennedy School.

  • ‘It is equally dangerous for Americans to over- or underestimate Chinese power, and the US contains groups with economic and political incentives to do both.’

2 | Xi Jinping Seeks a Balanced Assessment of the U.S.

Xi Jinping seems to be aware of the danger of miscalculation.

Chris Buckley of The New York Times reports in ‘ “The East Is Rising”: Xi Maps Out China’s Post-Covid Ascent’:

  • ‘Xi Jinping has struck a confident posture as he looks to secure China’s prosperity and power in a post-Covid world, saying that the country is entering a time of opportunity when “the East is rising and the West is declining.” ’

‘But behind closed doors, China’s Communist Party leader has also issued a blunt caveat to officials: Do not count out our competitors, above all the United States.’

  • ‘ “The biggest source of chaos in the present-day world is the United States,” Mr. Xi said, a county official in northwest China recounted in a speech published last week on a government website.’
  • ‘He quoted Mr. Xi as saying: “The United States is the biggest threat to our country’s development and security.” ’

‘That warning, echoed in similar recent public comments by senior officials close to Mr. Xi, reinforces how he is seeking to balance confidence and caution as China strides ahead while other countries continue to grapple with the pandemic.’

  • ‘His double-sided pronouncements reflect an effort to keep China on guard because, despite its success at home, it faces deep distrust in Washington and other Western capitals.’
  • ‘Although China is growing stronger, Xi has said, there are still many ways in which “the West is strong and the East is weak,” officials have recounted in speeches recently issued on local party websites.’

3 | The U.S. Seeks a Balanced Assessment of China

The U.S. seems to be going through its own reevaluation of China.

  • Nye points out:

‘Balances of power are hard to judge.’

  • ‘Those who proclaim Pax Sinica and American decline fail to take account of the full range of power resources.’

‘Even if China surpasses the US to become the world’s largest economy, national income is not the only measure of geopolitical power.’

  • ‘The US will retain some long-term power advantages that contrast with areas of Chinese vulnerability.’

And on the heels of Dr. Nye’s essay comes ‘China Is Not Ten Feet Tall: How Alarmism Undermines American Strategy,’ by Brookings’ Ryan Hass: ‘China, the story goes, is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.’

  • ‘Among the most eager purveyors of this story line are China’s government-affiliated media outlets. Projecting self-assurance, they have also gone out of their way to contrast their own achievements with plentiful examples of American dysfunction.’
  • ‘ “Time and momentum are on our side,” Chinese President Xi Jinping declared in a speech at the Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum last fall. In January, Chen Yixin, a top security official, told a Chinese Communist Party study session, “The rise of the East and decline of the West has become a trend.” ’

‘Authoritarian systems excel at showcasing their strengths and concealing their weaknesses.’

  • ‘But policymakers in Washington must be able to distinguish between the image Beijing presents and the realities it confronts.’
  • ‘For all the obstacles facing the United States, those facing China are considerably greater.’

‘During the Cold War, Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger cautioned against “ten-foot-tall syndrome”: the tendency among U.S. policymakers to view their Soviet competitors as towering figures of immense strength and overwhelming intellect.’

  • ‘A similar syndrome has taken hold in the United States today, and the harms are not just analytical.’

‘Concentrating on China’s strengths without accounting for its vulnerabilities creates anxiety. Anxiety breeds insecurity.’

  • ‘Insecurity leads to overreaction, and overreaction produces bad decisions that undermine the United States’ own competitiveness. Seeing China clearly is the first step toward getting China policy right.’

‘Washington’s bipartisan move in recent years to a hard-line approach to China has been driven above all by Beijing:’

  • ‘Chinese leaders have grown more impatiently aggressive in the pursuit of their ambitions and have increasingly leaned on nationalism, particularly as ideology and economic performance have become diminishing sources of social cohesion.’

‘But much of the shift in Washington has also been driven by a growing sense of panic about China’s strengths, leading to a bout of American insecurity.’

  • ‘Such panic is unlikely to prove constructive: an alarmed focus on degrading China’s strengths risks causing the United States to focus too little on the more essential task of bolstering its own.’

‘The United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’

  • ‘Self-confidence should foster a steady, patient, and wise response to China’s rise—one that can attract broad support at home and abroad.’

4 | U.S. Politics Nixes Any Balanced Assessment of China

But the need for this kind of calm assessment of U.S.-China balance of power runs headlong in U.S. politics.’

  • As Bill Reinsch of the Center for Strategic & International Studies wrote in ‘Double Feature’:

‘Speaking of China, the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando has produced an “I told you so” moment that is too good to ignore.’

  • ‘Behind the gold statue of Trump, who appears to be wearing American flag boxers, are no less than six panels discussing China on topics like “China Subverts America” and “Corporate America Surrendering to China.” '
  • ‘Featured speakers, most of whom are already running for president in 2024, are trying to outdo each other in their hostility to China and in their accusations that Democrats in general, and President Biden in particular, are soft on China and busy selling out our country.’
  • ‘As I predicted in multiple past columns, the hysteria has begun and is not going to end anytime soon.’

‘Unfortunately, what we heard at CPAC and are likely to hear from Republicans over the next four years is attacks on the fecklessness of U.S. companies that do business with China and on the Biden administration for not sufficiently punishing China.’

‘This is the politics of blame.’

  • ‘Rather than engage in a thoughtful debate about the best strategy, it simply identifies the guilty parties and attacks them along with the Chinese.'

‘Biden’s task is complicated by Congressional Democrats who yield to nobody in their ability to maintain high dudgeon.’

  • ‘The biggest difference between the parties is that the Democrats at least put more of the blame where it belongs—on the Chinese rather than the president—and spend more time talking about how to implement “running faster” solutions.’

‘Since all parties want to take a hard line, it makes sense to stop chest-beating about who is the toughest and instead work together to fashion a bipartisan strategy that will actually accomplish something rather than just produce sound bites for the next election.’

  • ‘This is too important for hysteria.’

As if that matters.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 3, 2021
'Biden's whole-of-National Security Council China strategy'
'National security adviser Jake Sullivan is personally focused on China as a priority, building capacity across departments and agencies and running processes that break down old silos between foreign and domestic policy.'
keep reading
January 31, 2021
'Biden’s Nightmare May Be China'
‘The coming years represent the greatest risks since I began covering U.S.-China relations in the 1980s, partly because Xi is an overconfident, risk-taking bully who believes that the United States is in decline.’
keep reading
January 31, 2021
Opinion | Marco Rubio: 'China is exploiting U.S. capital markets and workers. Here's what Biden should do.'
‘China can finance its industrial ambitions with the deepest, most liquid capital markets in the world — our own.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'Why China Is Cracking Down on Its Technology Giants'
‘Why, you may ask, is China crushing some of its most innovative unicorns? We’re in a new era led by President Xi Jinping, and politics are in command.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'The most significant philosophical shift since Deng'
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook. According to some analysts, it is the most significant philosophical shift since former leader Deng Xiaoping set development as the ultimate priority 40 years ago.’
keep reading
July 25, 2021
How China's Middle-Class China is Transforming China and the World
‘Among the many forces shaping China's domestic transformation and its role on the world stage, none may prove more significant than the rapid emergence and explosive growth of the Chinese middle-class.’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)
‘The prospectus has a diagram, above, of the corporate structure, which looks almost normal. But everything below the double arrow — the actual ride-hailing business, etc. — is slightly askew.’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'
‘ “Variable interest entities”(VIEs): The problem with this is that it sort of sounds like you’re kidding. But this is a standard method for mainland Chinese internet companies to go public, and the market has come to accept it.’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
Part 3 | Revising the Rules
‘The Chinese government could declare “all these VIE contracts are actually a disguised form of foreign ownership, which is not allowed by the rules, so they are all void and your Didi and Alibaba shares are worthless.” ’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
keep reading
July 22, 2021
'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'I will aim for Mao's Status.'
‘There on the gate was Xi Jinping, Chinese president and party general secretary, in a gray Mao suit. Just below his feet was the portrait of Mao Zedong, also dressed in a gray Mao suit.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'
“In the face of Beijing’s decisions over the past year that have stifled the democratic aspirations of people in Hong Kong, we are taking action,” said Antony Blinken, US secretary of state. “Today we send a clear message that the US resolutely stands with Hong Kongers.”
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'
‘The pretense of Chinese and Hong Kong authorities is that their crackdown on the rule of law and dissent will have no effect on Hong Kong’s viability as an international center for trade and finance.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'
‘China plans to exempt companies going public in Hong Kong from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, removing one hurdle for businesses that list in the Asian financial hub instead of the U.S.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling
‘The United States’ inability to make China regret—much less reverse—its transgressions in Hong Kong suggests that financial separation, sanctions, and economic barriers are less reliable tools than many in Washington believe.’
keep reading
July 15, 2021
Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'
‘Biden’s emerging China strategy, while still protean, sounds of a kind with Mr Doshi’s prescription for “blunting and building”.’
keep reading
July 15, 2021
The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents
President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
keep reading
July 15, 2021
Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
keep reading
July 15, 2021
'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
keep reading
July 8, 2021
Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again
Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
keep reading
July 4, 2021
The Chinese Point of View
Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
keep reading
July 4, 2021
'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'
‘China has managed to sustain four decades of economic growth despite levels of corruption that even Xi has described as “grave” and “shocking.” Why does it seem to have bucked the trend?’
keep reading
July 4, 2021
'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'
‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’
keep reading
July 1, 2021
Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading
As the Chinese Communist Party begins its second century, it’s useful to identify enduring patterns that might aid us in understanding China today and the directions it might be heading.
keep reading
July 1, 2021
From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich
‘In our discussions, you've identified five themes that have been more or less consistent throughout the history of the party but have oscillated between different points on a continuum:’
keep reading
July 1, 2021
'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100
‘At so many points during its century-long existence, the CCP appeared to be in its death throes, whether as a result of external attack or self-inflicted internal strife.’
keep reading
June 27, 2021
European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'
A mere 9% of European companies are considering moving any current or planned investment out of China, the lowest level on record. Instead, companies are strengthening their positions in JVs, onshoring supply chains and increasing spending to secure market share. The ambition not only to stay but also to expand their China footprint is more than justcapital flooding in due to optimism about growth. Companies are taking action to secure their operations in China and mitigate exposure to geopolitical trends in order to have a better chance of navigating a future that looks to be fraught with risk, at least in the near- to medium-term.
keep reading
June 27, 2021
'How China & America Should Compete'
‘China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.’
keep reading
June 27, 2021
'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'
Jimmy Lai’s tabloid, the Apple Daily, with its peculiar blend of scandal, gossip, and serious political reporting, was Hong Kong’s indispensable voice of free speech. Now that voice has been silenced, and Lai is in prison with others who tried to protect the right of Hong Kong’s citizens to speak and write freely, to be ruled by law, and to vote for their own autonomous government. Their politics are diverse Yet they stand together. When freedom is under siege, people cannot afford the narcissism of small differences that is tearing apart liberal politics in countries where people think democracy can be taken for granted.
keep reading
June 27, 2021
'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'
‘Instead of leaving the market, European companies are exploring ways to separate their China operations from their global ones.’ ‘Following the Covid-19 outbreak, European companies in China spent the first few months of 2020 solemnly appraising their investment strategies.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'
‘Freedom of the press is a good thing. The West's freedom of speech must be consistent with national interests and public security.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'
“Bitcoin alone consumes as much electricity as a medium-sized European country.”
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'China steps up crackdown on bitcoin mining industry'
‘China’s latest intervention places further pressure on what was once one of the world’s most vibrant markets for trading and mining digital currencies.’ ‘It comes at a time when many governments are scrutinising the industry’s effect on the environment and determining the types of financial oversight that should be applied to cryptocurrencies.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Congress on China: Then and Now'
‘With the Senate voting on June 8, 2021, to adopt the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act, it is safe to say that this is the most comprehensive action by Congress on China policy EVER.’ ‘The language of the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act is about a long-term competition with China as opposed to war with an enemy.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.