CHINAMacroReporter

Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

In today’s issue: 1. China Lays Out Its Position / 2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position / 3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition / 4. Burma or Myanmar?
by

|

CHINADebate

February 3, 2021
Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

In today’s issue:

1. China Lays Out Its Position

  • 'A Conversation with Politburo Member Yang Jiechi'

2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position

  • 'Biden's whole-of-National Security Council China strategy'
  • 'National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on U.S. Policy Toward China'
  • 'Secretary of State Antony Blinken on U.S. Policy Toward China'

3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

  • 'Burma’s Coup and Biden’s Choice'
  • 'Coup a further complication for tricky Myanmar-China ties'
  • 'Coup Puts Myanmar at the Center of the U.S.-China Clash'

4. Burma or Myanmar?

  • 'Myanmar, Burma and why the different names matter'

During the Cold War the U.S. and the Soviet Union never met in a direct military confrontation.

  • Instead they pursued their aims through ‘proxy wars.’

It’s hard to imagine where and how the U.S. and China could fight those sorts of wars.

  • Their proxy wars – if that term is even applicable - will be fought over economic and political influence in smaller countries.
  • Which brings us to the coup in Burma.

While the U.S. had no hand in the coup in Burma, and China, as of this writing, didn’t appear to either, their competition for influence in Burma somehow brings the idea of a proxy war to mind.

  • Since the Obama administration, the U.S. has worked to coax Burma into the democracy camp and at the same time decrying its human rights abuses.
  • All this time, China courted Burma’s leaders (and certainly corrupted some of them), invested billions, and promised billions more to increase its influence and its access to the Bay of Bengal through Burma.

In these few days since the coup, China seems poised to claim victory over U.S. interests.

  • Craft overcame principle.

That matters because as The Wall Street Journal right points out:

  • ‘The top U.S. priority in Asia is limiting Beijing’s ability to control independent states like Burma, which is strategically situated in the Indo-Pacific.’
  • ‘The U.S. response needs to take into account China’s regional designs.’

Good advice for the Biden team.

  • And for us, good reason to study the history of Sino-Burmese/U.S.-Burmese relations, especially in the last decade. (And to read the reports and analyses below)

Burma won’t be the only arena for this sort of proxy war.

  • The lessons learned won’t be wasted.

Note: I had forgotten how we got to ‘Myanmar’ from ‘Burma.’ The AP explained:

  • ‘For generations, the country was called Burma, after the dominant Burman ethnic group.’
  • ‘But in 1989, one year after the ruling junta brutally suppressed a pro-democracy uprising, military leaders suddenly changed its name to Myanmar.'

‘By then, Burma was an international pariah, desperate for any way to improve its image.'

  • ‘Hoping for a sliver of international legitimacy, it said it was discarding a name handed down from its colonial past and to foster ethnic unity.'
  • ‘The old name, officials said, excluded the country’s many ethnic minorities.'

‘Unlike most of the world, the U.S. government still officially uses “Burma.” ’

  • ‘Washington’s response to the coup seemed designed to highlight old criticisms, with both Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden pointedly avoiding the country’s legal name.
  • Burma works for me.

Through speeches and interviews, the distinctions between the positions of the U.S. and China are becoming clearer.

  • Here are excerpts of comments made in the last week in different forums by Politburo member Yang Jiechi to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
  • Each was in a different venue, not speaking and responding to each other.
  • I have paired these separate comments up by issue.

For the most part these tell us what we already knew: that positions of China and of the U.S. are vastly divergent.

  • Of particular importance though is China’s explicit statement of Hong Kong, the Uighurs, and Taiwan being ‘red lines’ for China.
  • And statements of the U.S. intent to run right over them.

On how to deal with the other

Mr. Yang:‘Over the past few years, the Trump administration adopted misguided policies against China, plunging the relationship into its most difficult period since the establishment of diplomatic ties.’

  • ‘Some in the United States, sticking to Cold War thinking, perceived China as a threat.’
  • ‘Their rhetoric and actions have interfered in China's internal affairs, undermined China's interests, and disrupted exchanges and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two sides.’
  • ‘There have also been attempts to seek "decoupling" and a so-called "new Cold War".’

‘China should be seen as it is. The previous administration has pursued some misguided policies towards China. ‘

  • ‘The root cause, I would say, is a strategic misjudgment by some in the United States - they view China as a major strategic competitor, even an adversary.’
  • ‘That, I am afraid, is historically, fundamentally and strategically wrong.’

‘It is a task for both China and the United States to restore the relationship to a predictable and constructive track of development, and to build a model of interaction between the two major countries that focuses on peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.’

Mr. Blinken: ‘There’s no doubt that China poses the most significant challenge to us of any other country, but it’s a complicated one.’

  • ‘There are adversarial aspects to the relationship, there are certainly competitive ones, and there are still some cooperative ones, too.’
  • ‘But whether we’re dealing with any of those aspects of the relationship, we have to be able to approach China from a position of strength, not weakness.'

‘And that strength, I think, comes from having strong alliances, something China does not have; actually engaging in the world and showing up in these international institutions.’

  • ‘Because we when pull back, China fills in and then they’re the ones writing the rules and setting the norms of these institutions;’
  • 'standing up for our values when China is challenging them, including in Xinjiang against the Uyghurs or democracy in Hong Kong;’
  • 'making sure that our military is postured so that it can deter Chinese aggression; and investing in our own people so that they can fully compete.’

On China’s aims

Mr. Yang: ‘China never exports its development model or seeks ideological confrontation.'

  • 'China has no intention to challenge or replace the U.S. position in the world, or to carve out a sphere of influence.’

Mr. Sullivan: ‘China is essentially making the case that the Chinese model is better than the American model.’

  • ‘And they're pointing to dysfunction and division in the United States and saying, “Take a look at that, their system doesn't work, our system does.” ’
  • ‘Increasingly over the last few years, you've heard their leaders right from the top speak more explicitly in these terms.’
  • ‘This is not any one or some kind of implied contrast, it is an explicit statement that there is an alternative model to the democratic market economy model that these United States has been advancing over the course of decades.’

On Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan

Mr. Yang: ‘Weexpect the United States to honor its commitment under the three Sino-U.S. Joint Communiqués, strictly abide by the One China principle, and respect China's position and concerns on the Taiwan question.’

  • ‘The United States should stop interference in the affairs of Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, which all matter to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and stop attempts to hold back China's development by meddling in China's internal affairs.’

‘They constitute a red line that must not be crossed.’

Mr. Sullivan: The U.S. is ‘prepared to act as well to impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it’s doing in Hong Kong, for the bellicosity of threats that it is projecting towards Taiwan.’


CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue. Including an article here does not imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 4, 2021
Why Beijing Is Bringing Big Tech to Heel
‘Beijing’s recent antitrust efforts are motivated less by worries about the tyrannical nature of monopoly power than by the belief that China’s tech giants are insufficiently committed to promoting the goal advanced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of transformative technological innovation—and thus may be undermining the effectiveness of Chinese industrial policy.’
keep reading
February 3, 2021
'Secretary of State Antony Blinken on U.S. Policy Toward China'
‘There’s no doubt that China poses the most significant challenge to us of any other country, but it’s a complicated one.’
keep reading
February 3, 2021
'Burma’s Coup and Biden’s Choice'
‘The top U.S. priority in Asia is limiting Beijing’s ability to control independent states like Burma, which is strategically situated in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. response needs to take into account China’s regional designs.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'Why China Is Cracking Down on Its Technology Giants'
‘Why, you may ask, is China crushing some of its most innovative unicorns? We’re in a new era led by President Xi Jinping, and politics are in command.’
keep reading
August 1, 2021
'The most significant philosophical shift since Deng'
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook. According to some analysts, it is the most significant philosophical shift since former leader Deng Xiaoping set development as the ultimate priority 40 years ago.’
keep reading
July 25, 2021
How China's Middle-Class China is Transforming China and the World
‘Among the many forces shaping China's domestic transformation and its role on the world stage, none may prove more significant than the rapid emergence and explosive growth of the Chinese middle-class.’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)
‘The prospectus has a diagram, above, of the corporate structure, which looks almost normal. But everything below the double arrow — the actual ride-hailing business, etc. — is slightly askew.’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'
‘ “Variable interest entities”(VIEs): The problem with this is that it sort of sounds like you’re kidding. But this is a standard method for mainland Chinese internet companies to go public, and the market has come to accept it.’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
Part 3 | Revising the Rules
‘The Chinese government could declare “all these VIE contracts are actually a disguised form of foreign ownership, which is not allowed by the rules, so they are all void and your Didi and Alibaba shares are worthless.” ’
keep reading
July 22, 2021
China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
keep reading
July 22, 2021
'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'I will aim for Mao's Status.'
‘There on the gate was Xi Jinping, Chinese president and party general secretary, in a gray Mao suit. Just below his feet was the portrait of Mao Zedong, also dressed in a gray Mao suit.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'
“In the face of Beijing’s decisions over the past year that have stifled the democratic aspirations of people in Hong Kong, we are taking action,” said Antony Blinken, US secretary of state. “Today we send a clear message that the US resolutely stands with Hong Kongers.”
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'
‘The pretense of Chinese and Hong Kong authorities is that their crackdown on the rule of law and dissent will have no effect on Hong Kong’s viability as an international center for trade and finance.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'
‘China plans to exempt companies going public in Hong Kong from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, removing one hurdle for businesses that list in the Asian financial hub instead of the U.S.’
keep reading
July 18, 2021
Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling
‘The United States’ inability to make China regret—much less reverse—its transgressions in Hong Kong suggests that financial separation, sanctions, and economic barriers are less reliable tools than many in Washington believe.’
keep reading
July 15, 2021
Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'
‘Biden’s emerging China strategy, while still protean, sounds of a kind with Mr Doshi’s prescription for “blunting and building”.’
keep reading
July 15, 2021
The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents
President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
keep reading
July 15, 2021
Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
keep reading
July 15, 2021
'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
keep reading
July 8, 2021
Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again
Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
keep reading
July 4, 2021
The Chinese Point of View
Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
keep reading
July 4, 2021
'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'
‘China has managed to sustain four decades of economic growth despite levels of corruption that even Xi has described as “grave” and “shocking.” Why does it seem to have bucked the trend?’
keep reading
July 4, 2021
'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'
‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’
keep reading
July 1, 2021
Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading
As the Chinese Communist Party begins its second century, it’s useful to identify enduring patterns that might aid us in understanding China today and the directions it might be heading.
keep reading
July 1, 2021
From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich
‘In our discussions, you've identified five themes that have been more or less consistent throughout the history of the party but have oscillated between different points on a continuum:’
keep reading
July 1, 2021
'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100
‘At so many points during its century-long existence, the CCP appeared to be in its death throes, whether as a result of external attack or self-inflicted internal strife.’
keep reading
June 27, 2021
European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'
A mere 9% of European companies are considering moving any current or planned investment out of China, the lowest level on record. Instead, companies are strengthening their positions in JVs, onshoring supply chains and increasing spending to secure market share. The ambition not only to stay but also to expand their China footprint is more than justcapital flooding in due to optimism about growth. Companies are taking action to secure their operations in China and mitigate exposure to geopolitical trends in order to have a better chance of navigating a future that looks to be fraught with risk, at least in the near- to medium-term.
keep reading
June 27, 2021
'How China & America Should Compete'
‘China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.’
keep reading
June 27, 2021
'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'
Jimmy Lai’s tabloid, the Apple Daily, with its peculiar blend of scandal, gossip, and serious political reporting, was Hong Kong’s indispensable voice of free speech. Now that voice has been silenced, and Lai is in prison with others who tried to protect the right of Hong Kong’s citizens to speak and write freely, to be ruled by law, and to vote for their own autonomous government. Their politics are diverse Yet they stand together. When freedom is under siege, people cannot afford the narcissism of small differences that is tearing apart liberal politics in countries where people think democracy can be taken for granted.
keep reading
June 27, 2021
'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'
‘Instead of leaving the market, European companies are exploring ways to separate their China operations from their global ones.’ ‘Following the Covid-19 outbreak, European companies in China spent the first few months of 2020 solemnly appraising their investment strategies.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'
‘Freedom of the press is a good thing. The West's freedom of speech must be consistent with national interests and public security.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'
“Bitcoin alone consumes as much electricity as a medium-sized European country.”
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'China steps up crackdown on bitcoin mining industry'
‘China’s latest intervention places further pressure on what was once one of the world’s most vibrant markets for trading and mining digital currencies.’ ‘It comes at a time when many governments are scrutinising the industry’s effect on the environment and determining the types of financial oversight that should be applied to cryptocurrencies.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Congress on China: Then and Now'
‘With the Senate voting on June 8, 2021, to adopt the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act, it is safe to say that this is the most comprehensive action by Congress on China policy EVER.’ ‘The language of the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act is about a long-term competition with China as opposed to war with an enemy.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.