CHINAMacroReporter

Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Biden’s 100th day

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
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ChinaDebate

April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.

  • On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.
  • And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.

Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”

  • ‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’
  • ‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’

The Chinese view is a bit more measured. The Chinese Communist Party-backed Global Times writes (in both its English- and Chinese-language editions):

  • ‘It will soon be the 100th day since Joe Biden took office.’
  • ‘Some have the reason to feel greatly disappointed about him while others think he is barely satisfactory.’

Paul Haenle of Carnegie-Tsinghua takes a bit of wait-and-see position:

  • ‘The Biden administration is using its first one hundred days to consolidate its leverage and try to establish the terms of prolonged strategic competition with China.’

David Dollar of Brookings goes a little further.

  • ‘In the first 100 days the emphasis has been on confrontation, with competition also being prominent.’

From the left, right, and China, the consensus seems to be that Biden is following Trump China policy:

  • Global Times: ‘Biden administration's China strategic definition is apparently a continuation of the Trump administration's perception of China. In the past 100 days, strategic competition between the US and China has not diminished.
  • Dollar: ‘When it comes to China, President Biden is largely continuing Donald Trump’s approach.’
  • Haenle: ‘Joe Biden and his administration’s early actions and statements indicate little desire to revert to a policy of engagement with China. The administration, much like the one before it, views China as a “strategic competitor” and is intent on implementing policies to better compete with Beijing.’

But Mr. Biden’s continuing Trump China policy could be a problem.

  • ‘The most important question that US President Joe Biden’s administration needs to ask in formulating its China policy is a simple one:’

‘Was Donald Trump right or wrong on China?,’ says Kishore Mahbubani in his essay, ‘Was Trump Right or Wrong on China? Biden’s Answer Will Shape the Future,’

  • ‘Right now, the overwhelming consensus in Washington is that even if he was wrong on everything else, Trump was right on China.’
  • ‘There is therefore a real danger that the Biden administration will retain many elements of Trump’s policies toward China.’
  • ‘If so, America is heading toward a disaster.’

Mr. Mahbubani is no doubt right.

  • But even though Mr. Biden is for now continuing much of Mr. Trump’s China policy, the nuances (explained in several posts below) make the execution and impact vastly difference.

And, we have to keep into perspective: 100 days is just 100 days.

  • And Mr. Biden has never explicitly said which Trump policies on China he will continue or abandon – if any.
  • Or even articulated his own comprehensive China policy.

‘Despite his stated desire to change the U.S. approach toward Beijing, Biden has been hesitant to quickly undo several of his predecessor’s China policies,’ writes Dr. Haenle.

  • ‘Instead, he has opted to conduct thorough strategic reviews within several federal departments and agencies, including the Department of Defense and the U.S. Trade Representative.’
  • Until these are done, digested and acted on , we are getting ahead of ourselves in forming hard conclusions about China policy going forward.

‘The president is setting the table for a series of negotiations that allow for competition, confrontation, and cooperation while minimizing the risk of conflict,’ writes Dr. Haenle.

  • Setting the table is not eating the meal.

In any case, as Mr. Biden hits and exceeds the 100-day mark, more comments and analyses will flow in, and Biden China policy (and all his other policies to boot) will generate the same Rashomon-effect.

  • In reading any of these, follow your Mother’s advice: Consider the source.

To get you started, today’s issue has posts, including those by Drs. Dollar and Haenle, that explain:

  • What Mr. Biden had to say about China in his speech to Congress, and what the Chinese said in reaction, and
  • What we can learn about Biden China policy after 100 days.

More

CHINAMacroReporter
February 3, 2021
'A Conversation with Politburo Member Yang Jiechi'
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February 3, 2021
'National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on U.S. Policy Toward China'
‘Being prepared to act as well to impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it’s doing in Hong Kong, for the bellicosity of threats that it is projecting towards Taiwan.’
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February 3, 2021
'Coup Puts Myanmar at the Center of the U.S.-China Clash'
‘Chinese oil and gas pipelines snake across Myanmar from China’s landlocked Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal—a route that Beijing wants to transform into a broader economic corridor with road and rail connections.’
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March 11, 2021
China, Ai, & the Coming U.S. Industrial Policy
‘The government will have to orchestrate policies to promote innovation; protect industries and sectors critical to national security; recruit and train talent; incentivize domestic research, development, and production across a range of technologies deemed essential for national security and economic prosperity; and marshal coalitions of allies and partners to support democratic norms.'
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March 11, 2021
'Why Biden Should Ditch Trump’s China Tariffs'
‘President Joe Biden has to decide whether to rescind his predecessor’s China tariffs.’
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March 11, 2021
Then There are Semiconductors
‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
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March 11, 2021
'Hard lesson for HK opposition: Extreme political confrontation is not in the designs of China'
'The radical forces in Hong Kong thought they were strong!’
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March 11, 2021
'China Turns to Elon Musk as Technology Dreams Sour'
‘China is having its techlash moment. The country’s internet giants, once celebrated as engines of economic vitality, are now scorned for exploiting user data, abusing workers and squelching innovation. Jack Ma, co-founder of the e-commerce titan Alibaba, is a fallen idol, with his companies under government scrutiny for the ways they have secured their grip over the world’s second-largest economy.’
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March 11, 2021
For Industrial Policy: National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan
‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
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March 10, 2021
'Beijing replicates its South China Sea tactics in the Himalayas'
‘Emboldened by its cost-free expansion in the South China Sea, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regime has stepped up efforts to replicate that model in the Himalayas.'
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March 10, 2021
'China Crackdown on Hong Kong'
‘The scale of the protests really shook Beijing. All the previous protest movements had lasted a few months, at most. This time, there was huge support, and it wasn’t dying down on its own.’
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March 9, 2021
'Neither China nor the US fits neatly into any one box’ Yuen Yuen Ang
‘Binary narratives lie behind the common misconception that China’s economic success has vindicated autocracy. (The simplistic logic is that if China is not a democracy, it must be an autocracy, and when it prospers, that prosperity must be because of its autocracy). For liberal democracies, this raises the fear that the “China model” poses an ideological challenge to democracy.’
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March 7, 2021
Part 2 | 'How Biden Can Learn From History in Real Time' Copy
‘ “International relations scholars,” the political scientist Daniel Drezner has written, “are certain about two facts:'
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March 7, 2021
How the WTO Changed China
'WTO membership, the new consensus goes, has allowed China access to the American and other global economies without forcing it to truly change its behavior, with disastrous consequences for workers and wages around the world.’
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March 7, 2021
With growth on track, China starts to unwind stimulus
‘China was the first country to open its lending and spending taps in the face of the coronavirus downturn. Now, it is the first to start to close them, giving others a partial preview at the National People’s Congressof what the end of stimulus will look like. The most notable aspect is its gradualism.’
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March 6, 2021
'Taper test - With growth on track, China starts to unwind stimulus'
‘China was the first country to open its lending and spending taps in the face of the coronavirus downturn. Now, it is the first to start to close them, giving others a partial preview at the National People’s Congressof what the end of stimulus will look like. The most notable aspect is its gradualism.’
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March 5, 2021
Nursing China’s Debt Hangover
‘China official target of 6% annual economic growth, announced Friday, is so modest it’s clear something else is going on. A plausible theory is that this is part of a strategy to rein in debt.’
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March 4, 2021
China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong
China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
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March 4, 2021
'NATO's Shifting Focus to China'
‘Consider, for example, a war escalating over the defense of Taiwan. “We should not forget that the main member state in NATO, the United States, is not only a transatlantic nation, but also a Pacific nation. And the question is, if at a certain stage, the U.S. were to be threatened by China, would that invoke Article 5 in the treaty?"'
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March 3, 2021
Missing: Has anyone seen Europe’s China plan?
‘Caught between Washington and Beijing, European capitals find themselves in lack of a strategic China policy.’
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February 28, 2021
Why Beijing was right to rein in Jack Ma's rogue Ant Group IPO
‘In July 2020, just before their IPO application, Ant Financial not only abandoned the word "financial" and renamed themselves Ant Group, they attempted to list not on the Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges, where financial institutions list, but rather on the Shanghai STAR Market, which was created as an exchange for high-tech innovators.’
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February 27, 2021
The rivalry between America and China will hinge on South-East Asia
‘In the rivalry between China and America, there will be a main zone of contention: South-East Asia. Of the two competitors, China looks the more likely prize-winner.'
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February 26, 2021
'Inside Xinjiang’s Prison State'
‘After years of first denying the facilities’ existence, then claiming that they had closed, Chinese officials now say the camps are “vocational education and training centers,” necessary to rooting out “extreme thoughts” and no different from correctional facilities in the United States or deradicalization centers in France.’
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February 24, 2021
Japan Is the New Leader of Asia’s Liberal Order
‘In an era of Chinese bellicosity, North Korean provocations, and a raging pandemic, Japan’s inconspicuous ascent to regional leadership has gone mostly unnoticed.’
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February 23, 2021
‘Patriots’ Only: Beijing Plans Overhaul of Hong Kong’s Elections
‘China plans to impose restrictions on Hong Kong’s electoral system to root out candidates the Communist Party deems disloyal, a move that could block democracy advocates in the city from running for any elected office.’
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February 23, 2021
HSBC offers lesson in corporate realpolitik
‘HSBC’s Asia pivot is a lesson in corporate realpolitik. It is just as much a recognition of the new political reality facing every western company that is dependent on doing business with China. Businesses will have to choose between western markets and access to China, and between liberal and authoritarian value systems.’
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February 23, 2021
Germany Is a Flashpoint in the U.S.-China Cold War
'As goes Germany, so goes Europe — and that’s a real challenge for the U.S. Berlin leads a European bloc that could cast a geopolitical swing vote in the U.S.-China rivalry.’
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February 22, 2021
Remaking “Made in China”: Beijing’s Industrial Internet Ambitions
‘The Chinese government is placing large bureaucratic and financial bets on upgrading and digitizing its already dominant manufacturing base. Such efforts have coalesced around one key term: the “industrial internet” (工业互联网). The successful application of it across Chinese industry would prolong and elevate the “Made in China” era.’
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February 22, 2021
How American Free Trade Can Outdo China
‘When it comes to trade, a critical dimension of the U.S. and China competition, America is ceding the field. At the same time, China has expanded its trade footprint. When it comes to trade and investment agreements, China isn’t isolated. The U.S. increasingly is. Now we have to make up for lost ground. America can out-compete China, but first it needs to get back in the game.’
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February 21, 2021
China’s ‘two sessions’: why this year’s event is so important for Xi Jinping’s vision for the future
‘The ‘Two Sessions,’ the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, the country’s legislature, and the top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, begins on March 5 and runs for about two weeks.’
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February 20, 2021
‘The Future of China’s Past: Rising China’s Next Act'
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February 20, 2021
‘UNDERSTANDING DECOUPLING: Macro Trends and Industry Impacts’
‘Comprehensive decoupling is no longer viewed as impossible: if the current trajectory of U.S. decoupling policies continues, a complete rupture would in fact be the most likely outcome. This prospect remains entirely plausible under the Biden administration.’
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February 20, 2021
‘Europe can’t stay neutral in US-China standoff’
‘China aims to create a world that is not safe for Europe — strategically, economically or ideologically. Xi is actively striving to undermine the stature of democracies in the global order. The more power China amasses, the less tolerant it will become with any government that won’t toe its line. China also represents a long-term economic threat to Europe — not merely because it is an advancing competitor in a global market economy, but because Beijing’s policies are designed to use and abuse that open world economy to eventually dominate it.
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February 20, 2021
‘Beat China: Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War'
‘The economy is the primary theater of our conflict with China. It is now clear that the U.S. and Chinese economies are too entangled, particularly in critical sectors such as medicine, defense, and technology.'
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February 19, 2021
‘No, China is not the EU’s top trading partner'
‘This week the media seized on a report by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, to declare that China surpassed the United States in 2020 to become the EU’s main trade partner. This is simply not true.’
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February 18, 2021
‘China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan’
'Should Mr Xi order the People’s Liberation Army to take Taiwan, his decision will be shaped by one judgment above all: whether America can stop him. If China ever believes it can complete the task at a bearable cost, it will act.’ ‘
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February 18, 2021
'An Unsentimental China Policy'
'Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2019, “The era of engagement with China has come to an unceremonious close.”Yet it is worth remembering what engaging China was all about.’ For most of the past half century, efforts to improve ties with the country were not about transforming it. Judged by its own standards, U.S. engagement with China succeeded. It was only after the Cold War that a desire to change China became a prominent objective of U.S. policy.’
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