CHINAMacroReporter

Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Biden’s 100th day

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
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ChinaDebate

April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.

  • On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.
  • And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.

Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”

  • ‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’
  • ‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’

The Chinese view is a bit more measured. The Chinese Communist Party-backed Global Times writes (in both its English- and Chinese-language editions):

  • ‘It will soon be the 100th day since Joe Biden took office.’
  • ‘Some have the reason to feel greatly disappointed about him while others think he is barely satisfactory.’

Paul Haenle of Carnegie-Tsinghua takes a bit of wait-and-see position:

  • ‘The Biden administration is using its first one hundred days to consolidate its leverage and try to establish the terms of prolonged strategic competition with China.’

David Dollar of Brookings goes a little further.

  • ‘In the first 100 days the emphasis has been on confrontation, with competition also being prominent.’

From the left, right, and China, the consensus seems to be that Biden is following Trump China policy:

  • Global Times: ‘Biden administration's China strategic definition is apparently a continuation of the Trump administration's perception of China. In the past 100 days, strategic competition between the US and China has not diminished.
  • Dollar: ‘When it comes to China, President Biden is largely continuing Donald Trump’s approach.’
  • Haenle: ‘Joe Biden and his administration’s early actions and statements indicate little desire to revert to a policy of engagement with China. The administration, much like the one before it, views China as a “strategic competitor” and is intent on implementing policies to better compete with Beijing.’

But Mr. Biden’s continuing Trump China policy could be a problem.

  • ‘The most important question that US President Joe Biden’s administration needs to ask in formulating its China policy is a simple one:’

‘Was Donald Trump right or wrong on China?,’ says Kishore Mahbubani in his essay, ‘Was Trump Right or Wrong on China? Biden’s Answer Will Shape the Future,’

  • ‘Right now, the overwhelming consensus in Washington is that even if he was wrong on everything else, Trump was right on China.’
  • ‘There is therefore a real danger that the Biden administration will retain many elements of Trump’s policies toward China.’
  • ‘If so, America is heading toward a disaster.’

Mr. Mahbubani is no doubt right.

  • But even though Mr. Biden is for now continuing much of Mr. Trump’s China policy, the nuances (explained in several posts below) make the execution and impact vastly difference.

And, we have to keep into perspective: 100 days is just 100 days.

  • And Mr. Biden has never explicitly said which Trump policies on China he will continue or abandon – if any.
  • Or even articulated his own comprehensive China policy.

‘Despite his stated desire to change the U.S. approach toward Beijing, Biden has been hesitant to quickly undo several of his predecessor’s China policies,’ writes Dr. Haenle.

  • ‘Instead, he has opted to conduct thorough strategic reviews within several federal departments and agencies, including the Department of Defense and the U.S. Trade Representative.’
  • Until these are done, digested and acted on , we are getting ahead of ourselves in forming hard conclusions about China policy going forward.

‘The president is setting the table for a series of negotiations that allow for competition, confrontation, and cooperation while minimizing the risk of conflict,’ writes Dr. Haenle.

  • Setting the table is not eating the meal.

In any case, as Mr. Biden hits and exceeds the 100-day mark, more comments and analyses will flow in, and Biden China policy (and all his other policies to boot) will generate the same Rashomon-effect.

  • In reading any of these, follow your Mother’s advice: Consider the source.

To get you started, today’s issue has posts, including those by Drs. Dollar and Haenle, that explain:

  • What Mr. Biden had to say about China in his speech to Congress, and what the Chinese said in reaction, and
  • What we can learn about Biden China policy after 100 days.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

January 31, 2021
China Tests Biden
In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
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January 27, 2021
Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'
In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
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January 27, 2021
'Xi Jinping Wows Them at Davos'
‘The test for the Biden team is whether it will be tripped up by the feints toward international norms and comity that punctuate Mr. Xi’s pattern of regional aggression.’
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May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
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May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
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May 27, 2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
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May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
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May 27, 2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
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May 27, 2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
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May 27, 2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
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May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
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May 27, 2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
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May 27, 2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
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May 20, 2021
'Apple in China: No Plan B'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
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May 20, 2021
'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'
‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
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May 20, 2021
'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'
"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
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May 20, 2021
‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’
‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
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May 20, 2021
Apple in China
‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
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May 20, 2021
'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
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May 15, 2021
‘Scenario Three: Leadership Challenge or Coup
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’
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May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
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May 15, 2021
Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’
‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
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May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
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May 15, 2021
‘Scenario Four: Unexpected Death or Incapacitation'
‘Even if the CCP’s claim that Xi Jinping has no designs to remain in office for life is true, his evisceration of succession norms leaves the country ill-prepared for his sudden death or incapacitation.’
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May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
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May 15, 2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
keep reading
May 15, 2021
'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'
‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
keep reading
May 15, 2021
'After Xi: China's potentially destabilising succession crisis'
‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’ ‘In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce.’
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May 15, 2021
‘Scenario One & Two: Xi Steps Down'
‘In this scenario, Xi thwarts the current consensus by handing over his leadership positions to at least one individual from the current Politburo Standing Committee (as per existing regulations).’
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May 12, 2021
The Poem that Cost Billions
The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
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May 10, 2021
'A 1,100-Year-Old Poem Cost Meituan’s Outspoken CEO US $2.5 Billions'
‘On Monday, because of an 1,100-year old poem about events 2,200 years ago posted by the founder of food delivery giant Meituan, investors panicked, and sank the company’s market cap by $15.6 billion. And Meituan CEO Wang Xing, who posted the poem, lost $2.5 billion of his wealth.’
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May 9, 2021
'The Housing Bubble That Just Won’t Pop'
‘China’s cities are plagued by a diverging trend: high demand and exorbitant prices for residential properties in tier 1 cities and yet an oversupply in smaller, lower-tiered cities.’
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May 7, 2021
'Would China really invade Taiwan?'
‘Is Taiwan really "the most dangerous place on earth?" No. Or at least, not right now.’
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May 7, 2021
'Don't Help China By Hyping Risk Of War Over Taiwan'
‘China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict.’ ‘Beijing's goal is to constantly remind Taiwan's people of its growing power, induce pessimism about Taiwan's future, deepen splits within the island's political system and show that outside powers are impotent to counter its flexes.' ‘Its approach is guided by the Chinese aphorism, "Once ripe, the melon will drop from its stem [瓜熟蒂落]," ’‘This strategy may require more time than war, but it would come at less cost and risk to Beijing.’
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May 7, 2021
'China Threat: A "perception gap" between the U.S. and Taiwan'
‘While the U.S. talks up the medium-term military threat, the democratic island sees the moves as part of a bigger, more immediate problem: "gray zone" warfare from Beijing that is meant to wear down the morale of not just the Taiwanese military, but also the island's people.’
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May 7, 2021
'The most dangerous place on Earth'
‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
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May 7, 2021
'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'
‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
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