CHINAMacroReporter

Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Biden’s 100th day

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
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ChinaDebate

April 29, 2021
Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.

  • On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.
  • And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.

Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”

  • ‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’
  • ‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’

The Chinese view is a bit more measured. The Chinese Communist Party-backed Global Times writes (in both its English- and Chinese-language editions):

  • ‘It will soon be the 100th day since Joe Biden took office.’
  • ‘Some have the reason to feel greatly disappointed about him while others think he is barely satisfactory.’

Paul Haenle of Carnegie-Tsinghua takes a bit of wait-and-see position:

  • ‘The Biden administration is using its first one hundred days to consolidate its leverage and try to establish the terms of prolonged strategic competition with China.’

David Dollar of Brookings goes a little further.

  • ‘In the first 100 days the emphasis has been on confrontation, with competition also being prominent.’

From the left, right, and China, the consensus seems to be that Biden is following Trump China policy:

  • Global Times: ‘Biden administration's China strategic definition is apparently a continuation of the Trump administration's perception of China. In the past 100 days, strategic competition between the US and China has not diminished.
  • Dollar: ‘When it comes to China, President Biden is largely continuing Donald Trump’s approach.’
  • Haenle: ‘Joe Biden and his administration’s early actions and statements indicate little desire to revert to a policy of engagement with China. The administration, much like the one before it, views China as a “strategic competitor” and is intent on implementing policies to better compete with Beijing.’

But Mr. Biden’s continuing Trump China policy could be a problem.

  • ‘The most important question that US President Joe Biden’s administration needs to ask in formulating its China policy is a simple one:’

‘Was Donald Trump right or wrong on China?,’ says Kishore Mahbubani in his essay, ‘Was Trump Right or Wrong on China? Biden’s Answer Will Shape the Future,’

  • ‘Right now, the overwhelming consensus in Washington is that even if he was wrong on everything else, Trump was right on China.’
  • ‘There is therefore a real danger that the Biden administration will retain many elements of Trump’s policies toward China.’
  • ‘If so, America is heading toward a disaster.’

Mr. Mahbubani is no doubt right.

  • But even though Mr. Biden is for now continuing much of Mr. Trump’s China policy, the nuances (explained in several posts below) make the execution and impact vastly difference.

And, we have to keep into perspective: 100 days is just 100 days.

  • And Mr. Biden has never explicitly said which Trump policies on China he will continue or abandon – if any.
  • Or even articulated his own comprehensive China policy.

‘Despite his stated desire to change the U.S. approach toward Beijing, Biden has been hesitant to quickly undo several of his predecessor’s China policies,’ writes Dr. Haenle.

  • ‘Instead, he has opted to conduct thorough strategic reviews within several federal departments and agencies, including the Department of Defense and the U.S. Trade Representative.’
  • Until these are done, digested and acted on , we are getting ahead of ourselves in forming hard conclusions about China policy going forward.

‘The president is setting the table for a series of negotiations that allow for competition, confrontation, and cooperation while minimizing the risk of conflict,’ writes Dr. Haenle.

  • Setting the table is not eating the meal.

In any case, as Mr. Biden hits and exceeds the 100-day mark, more comments and analyses will flow in, and Biden China policy (and all his other policies to boot) will generate the same Rashomon-effect.

  • In reading any of these, follow your Mother’s advice: Consider the source.

To get you started, today’s issue has posts, including those by Drs. Dollar and Haenle, that explain:

  • What Mr. Biden had to say about China in his speech to Congress, and what the Chinese said in reaction, and
  • What we can learn about Biden China policy after 100 days.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

January 27, 2021
Part One | 'Biden’s Opening Salvo on Beijing'
‘The Biden administration is less than a week old, but its most consequential foreign-policy decisions may already be behind it.’
keep reading
January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Champions Multilateralism at Davos, Again'
‘While Xi’s speech may have echoed similar themes from his 2017 address, today’s circumstances are markedly different.’
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January 27, 2021
'China’s Xi Warns Against Confrontation in Veiled Message to Biden'
‘Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning against the new Biden administration’s preparations to rally allies to challenge Beijing on a range of issues.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
'Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper folds under government pressure'
Apple Daily was much more than a newspaper. To its fans, it was a defender of freedoms. To its foes, it was the defiler of national sovereignty.’
keep reading
June 24, 2021
The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong
Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
keep reading
June 20, 2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
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June 20, 2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
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June 17, 2021
'Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point'
‘The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.’
keep reading
June 17, 2021
'Meet the New Chinese Economy, Same as the Old Chinese Economy'
If a recovery led by investment in real estate and industrial production, with consumption lagging behind, sounds familiar, it may be because the same could be said of the makeup of China’s growth before Covid-19.’
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June 17, 2021
Part 1 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
‘Beijing is moving swiftly to protect its factories and workplaces from rising costs.’ ‘Still, rising prices in China, by far the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, could be felt around the world.’
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June 17, 2021
Bernie Sanders: 'Don’t Start a New Cold War With China'
‘The pendulum of conventional wisdom in Washington has now swung from being far too optimistic about the opportunities presented by unfettered trade with China to being far too hawkish about the threats posed by the richer, stronger, more authoritarian China that has been one result of that increased trade.’
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June 17, 2021
Part 2 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
“Is China exporting inflation? In renminbi terms, it’s not so obvious. But in U.S. dollar terms, it starts to get more sizable.” ’
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June 13, 2021
'Forget about China': Clyde Prestowitz
Clyde Prestowitz has influenced U.S. foreign trade and investment policy for many decades, both inside and outside government.
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June 9, 2021
'Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win'
‘Biden worries that China is in competition for America, and not only that—they might win. This belief underpins the Biden doctrine.’
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June 9, 2021
'From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening democratic cooperation for today's challenges'
‘A “Democratic-10” or “D-10” is aimed at rallying the world’s most powerful democracies around a common cause— advancing a rules-based democratic order based on shared values and common interests.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
Biden Worries China Might Win
‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
keep reading
June 9, 2021
Joe Biden: 'My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies'
‘This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world?’
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June 9, 2021
'NATO & China's Challenges to Europe'
‘Even though China does not pose a direct military threat to NATO, contrary to Russia or terrorist groups, Beijing’s growing economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness in Europe coupled with its growing military relationship with Russia do have major implications for the transatlantic economy as well as its security.’
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June 3, 2021
5 | Two Caveats
‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
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June 3, 2021
1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'
‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
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June 3, 2021
4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy
‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
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June 3, 2021
6 | The Risks & the Dangers
‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
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June 3, 2021
2 | Blame It on Xi
‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
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June 3, 2021
3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’
‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
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June 3, 2021
Killing China's Grand Strategy
Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
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May 30, 2021
'Final Thoughts'
'Just as Brzezinski foresaw the two new contending blocs –– requiring greater “geostrategic skill” –– that are forming today, Kissinger has emphasized the unprecedented dangers that AI could introduce into a divided world.’
keep reading
May 30, 2021
China's ‘Anti-Hegemonist Bloc’
‘To counter U.S. coalition building, China has enhanced its diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with both Russia and Iran in recent months, resulting in the closest ties these countries have had in the post-Cold War era.’
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May 30, 2021
Postscript: China Doubts U.S. Allies Support
'Chinese leadership is also cynical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led Cold War-style bloc.’
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May 30, 2021
Biden’s ‘Anti-China Bloc’
‘Throughout President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, his administration has largely continued the Trump administration’s hawkish approach toward China.’ ‘President Biden has also made international coalition building to confront the growing power and influence of China his primary foreign policy initiative.’ ‘Chinese leaders and the public are not convinced by the statements recently made by President Biden that these U.S.-led alliances are “not anti-Chinese” and that the United States is “not looking for confrontation” with China.’
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May 30, 2021
What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy
And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
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May 30, 2021
Worse for China than Trump
‘Many Chinese now believe that the Biden administration could be more detrimental to U.S.-China relations than the Trump administration.’
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May 30, 2021
'Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?'
‘Senior officials on the foreign policy team have frequently emphasized three “C” words: competition, cooperation, and confrontation.’
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May 30, 2021
The Trump Legacy
‘From Beijing’s perspective, the hawkish approach to China in the final year of the Trump administration revealed that the Trump team sought to defeat and destroy China in much the same way that the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.’
keep reading
May 27, 2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
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May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
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May 27, 2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
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May 27, 2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
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