CHINAMacroReporter

Behind the U.S.-China trade dispute: 'The West's China gamble has failed.'

What's the root cause of the current friction between the U.S. and China? The West's disappointment that China did follow the western model but its own, argues Ed Tse, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company (a member of the China Analyst Network). [Ed's solution] look to the similarities between China and the West, especially in the tech sector, and be alert to China's evolution toward better IPR, market access, and other contentious issues, not just the remaining shortcomings. Below is a video of my discussion with Ed and excerpts from both the interview and his South China Morning Post op-ed, 'Chinese innovation with US characteristics? Maybe China and the West aren’t that far apart, in business at least.' Ed presents insights that differ greatly from the China Echo Chamber in the U.S. Let me know what you think.
by

|

CHINADebate

April 5, 2018
Behind the U.S.-China trade dispute:  'The West's China gamble has failed.'

'The looming trade war between the U.S. and China is front-page news around the world,' writes Ed Tse, founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, known also as the "father of management consulting in China," in the South China Morning Post on March 29.

  • 'On the surface, it looks like U.S. President Donald Trump following up on his campaign rhetoric of “America first” and part of his strategy to treat China as a “strategic competitor."'
  • 'However, it’s possible to trace the roots of the current impasse to a fundamental mistrust between the West, in particular the U.S., and China.'
  • 'The cover story on the March 3, 2018 issue of The Economist, “How the West Got China Wrong”, epitomises that point of view.'

Here's what The Economist had to say:

  • 'After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West welcomed the next big communist country into the global economic order.'
  • 'Western leaders believed that giving China a stake in institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would bind it into the rules-based system set up after the second world war.'
  • 'They hoped that economic integration would encourage China to evolve into a market economy and that, as they grew wealthier, its people would come to yearn for democratic freedoms, rights and the rule of law.''The gamble has failed.'

Ed Tse: 'China has not gone the way the West anticipated.'

  • 'Instead, China has developed its own system. Many people call it the "China development model." And, China has found a way that works.'
  • 'It's a bit unreasonable for people in the West to expect there's only one way to run a country - our way - and that every country will need to follow that way.
  • 'Especially, '...given the major disruptive events over the past decade, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, and sluggish economic growth for well over a decade.
  • 'Instead, 'China continues to be a one-party state while embracing some aspects of the Western-defined market economy and maintaining a strong government role.'
  • Using the China development model, 'Beijing was able to lift China from basic subsistence to a situation where many people now enjoy a reasonable livelihood.'
  • 'Ideology apart, it is difficult to argue that there is only one way to govern, no matter what the context of the country.'

2. 'Chinese entrepreneurs look to the U.S. for inspiration'

Image
'The spirit of entrepreneurship in China has not been that different from the spirit of entrepreneurship in the U.S.' Ed Tse


'The real point - the most important point - I made in the South China Morning Post op-ed is that politics aside, or ideology aside, actually there's a lot of similarities between the U.S. and China in terms of business, in particular in terms of entrepreneurship,' Ed Tse told me.

'Entrepreneurship returned to China 40 years ago with the reforms started by Deng Xiaoping.'

'Since then, in fact, the whole format and the spirit of entrepreneurship in China has not been that different from the whole form and the spirit of entrepreneurship in the U.S.'

'Chinese entrepreneurs, particular those in the tech sector, have looked towards the U.S. for inspiration since their beginning.'

  • 'I'm talking about the internet companies now, Alibaba, TenCent, Baidu, and many others.'
  • 'When they try to set up the business, when they think about the strategy, when they think about the organization, when they think about the business model, they look to the U.S. - Silicon Valley, the Northwest, the Greater Boston area, and other U.S. tech centers.'

'The mindset, mentality and approach of both the U.S. and Chinese tech companies, as well as their investors, are very similar and many mutual benefits have been built over the years.'

  • 'So, while politically, perhaps, the West may be disappointed that China has not gone its way, from the business standpoint, China and the West – especially innovative centres in the U.S. – have much in common and have adopted very similar philosophies.'
  • 'In fact, the Chinese and the U.S. tech ecosystems are already quite intertwined, and it would be hard to separate the two.'

3. In IPR, market access, and force tech transfer, China is moving in the right direction

Image
'Premier Li has said that the Chinese government will try not to require or force foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology. Let's see how it goes, but I think Premier Li was sincere.' Ed Tse  

'With or withouta trade war, the Chinese are already moving at least in the right direction,' says Ed Tse.

'The Chinese are actually exercising more stringent protection on the intellectual property rights, not only with respect to the foreigners, but also for the Chinese themselves.'

  • 'It's critical. The Chinese government would like to advance China into a more technologically advanced country. To achieve this, the protection of intellectual property rights has got to be better. The Chinese are not dumb. They're trying to do that.'
  • 'At the same time, it requires some time. The Chinese government is trying to move things in the right direction with the right kind of speed.'

'Also with market access. To just blanketly say the Chinese government has closed the market for foreign participation, including American companies to participate in China market is totally bullshit.'

  • 'There are many sectors in China that are already very open or entirely open for U.S. companies' participation.'
  • 'There are some sectors that are not entirely open, but the direction again is in the right direction.'
  • 'The Chinese government continues to gradually open up industry sectors for foreign participation, and the Chinese government is very committed in doing that.'

'To say, "Well, the Chinese government really forced foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology," again is not always right.'

  • 'There are some situations that actually have been enforced, has been asked for, and of course that's not appropriate.'
  • 'Premier Li has already come out and said that the Chinese government will try not to require or force foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology through this kind of requirement. Let's see how it goes, but I think Premier Li was sincere.'
  • 'By the way, the forced tranfers are not of proprietary technology. Many of these are secondhand or thirdhand technology.'
  • 'The core of technology transferred in the auto industry, for example, is ancient technology.'
  • 'In fact, the foreign companies have really not come forth in any big way to transfer that cutting-edge technology.'
  • [Editor's note: That is also my direct experience in negotiating JVs on behalf of Western clients - the Chinese side demanded the latest technology; I argued - and won - that the Western side would only give older versions.]

'If you look at the direction the China government is taking China, some of these issues are non-issues or quickly becoming non-issues.'

  • 'It's critical for foreign companies, in particular American companies, to really recognize these directions and be willing to participate in the evolution of the China market to capture the  potential that the China market offers them.'

4. 'Focusing on differences will not help us.'

Image
‍'The Chinese saying “qiu tong cun yi” (求同存异) means “seeking similarities while allowing for differences.”   

'The Chinese saying “qiu tong cun yi” (求同存异) means “seeking similarities while allowing for differences,"' says Ed Tse.

  • 'The West, and the US in particular, should view China in this light.'
  • 'China is on the verge of a sustained, generational rise, and President Xi Jinping has made it clear China would like to play a role in global leadership and governance.'
  • 'By focusing more on the similarities, both global commerce and business will benefit.'

'I would encourage U.S. politicians and U.S. pundits to really look more at the similarities rather than the differences

  • 'Focusing on differences will not help us.'
  • 'Focusing on similarities will.'

More

CHINAMacroReporter

February 11, 2021
'The Biden Team Wants to Transform the Economy. Really.'
‘Biden and his more activist advisers hope to modernize key industries and counter an economic threat from China, swiftly emerging as the world’s other superpower. “The package that they put together is the closest thing we’ve had to a broad industrial policy for generations, really,” says Scott Paul, the president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.’
keep reading
February 10, 2021
‘What the ‘Hong Kong Narrative’ gets wrong'
‘For a significant cohort of the [“pro-democracy”] protesters, the more accurate label would be “anti-China activists.” The one thing that seems to unite them is not a love of democracy, but a hatred of China.'
keep reading
April 15, 2021
'TSMC faces pressure to choose a side in US-China tech war'
‘Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has maintained its historic position of neutrality, reflected in the company’s strategy of “being everyone’s foundry”.’
keep reading
April 14, 2021
The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World
In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
keep reading
April 13, 2021
'2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community'
‘China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms.’
keep reading
April 13, 2021
In Battle With U.S. for Global Sway, China Showers Money on Europe’s Neglected Areas
‘The number of freight trains running between China and Europe topped 12,400 last year, 50% higher than in 2019 and seven times that of 2016, according to Chinese authorities.’
keep reading
April 11, 2021
'Why manufacturing matters to economic superpowers'
‘Whether such reshoring matters for national economies depends very much on the industry.’
keep reading
April 11, 2021
China in Jamie Dimon's Letter to Shareholders
‘China does not have a straight road to becoming the dominant economic power’.
keep reading
April 11, 2021
'Alibaba’s rivals on alert after China’s regulators hand out record fine'
“Everyone with a clear mind won't self-regulate, you just pretend that you do. Who will pay for the loss if you lost your competitive advantage because you self-regulated and others didn't?”
keep reading
April 10, 2021
Alibaba: 'Promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy'
‘From the perspective of the long-term and healthy development of the platform economy, regulation by law and support for development are not contradictory, but are complementary and mutually reinforcing.'
keep reading
April 9, 2021
'The Best Explanation of Biden’s Economic Thinking I’ve Heard'
‘When President Biden’s thinking about the infrastructure investments necessary, a lot of it is in contraposition to what he is seeing China doing in terms of strategic investments.’
keep reading
April 8, 2021
Liu Ge: Competing with China a farfetched guise for US’ infrastructure plan
‘Historically speaking, it seems the only way for the US government to make costly public investments was to create an adversary that is presumed to threaten its security.’
keep reading
April 8, 2021
'Antony Blinken interview: The secretary of state offers a window into Biden's foreign policy decisions'
‘ “Our goal is not to contain China, hold China back, keep it down,” Blinken underlined.’
keep reading
April 8, 2021
'US adds Chinese supercomputing companies to export blacklist'
‘The Biden administration took its first trade action against China on Thursday, adding seven Chinese supercomputing developers to an export blacklist for assisting Chinese military efforts in a move that will likely further escalate frosty tensions between the world's two largest economies.’
keep reading
April 7, 2021
'Remarks by President Biden on the American Jobs Plan'
‘Look, do we think the rest of world is waiting around? Take a look. Do you think China is waiting around to invest in this digital infrastructure or in research and development?’
keep reading
April 7, 2021
China: 'Power Trader'
‘The theory of power trade better explains China’s economic and trade policies than does the theory of free trade or protectionism,’
keep reading
April 6, 2021
'Train Wreck: Ultimately companies have to choose.’
MUST READ: Bill Reinsch succinctly but brilliantly summarizes the situations in China and the U.S. and between the two.
keep reading
April 6, 2021
'Buy American!': Pushing U.S. Companies to Onshore Supply Chains
The debate about how to deal with China commercially ‘has moved in two directions: running faster—improving our innovation capabilities in critical technologies to better compete with China—and slowing China down by restricting its access to U.S. technology.’
keep reading
April 4, 2021
'Why Defending Taiwan is in the U.S. National Interest'
‘As long as Washington assesses that American security is best served by defending forward—an approach that has served the United States well over the past 70 years—Taiwan’s de facto independence will remain a key US interest and driver of American policy in Asia.’
keep reading
April 4, 2021
'Why China Is Going All "Wolf Warrior," All the Time'
‘All this is to say that, living in Beijing as I do, I think the current approach is predictable and consistent with everything else we are seeing in China in the New Era.’
keep reading
April 3, 2021
'With Swarms of Ships, Beijing Tightens Its Grip on South China Sea'
‘Not long ago, China asserted its claims on the South China Sea by building and fortifying artificial islands in waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'Genesis Celebrates Launch In China With Dazzling, World Record-breaking Drone Show Over Shanghai's Iconic Skyline'
'The spectacular visuals were coordinated to present the world of Genesis, delivering an audacious storytelling concept while also breaking the Guinness World Records for "The Most Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) airborne simultaneously".’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
Mo' Infrastructure, Mo' Problems Copy
‘China’s reliance on building roads, railways and airports to support growth has caused a spike in debt, with some of that money funneled into unnecessary infrastructure and uneconomic boondoggle developments.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
How Does the U.S. Compare to China?
Two reports from Bloomberg – ‘Biden Starts Infrastructure Bet With U.S. Far Behind China’ and ‘Biden’s Biggest-Ever Investment Plan for U.S. Still Trails China’ – highlight a few of the differences.
keep reading
April 2, 2021
USTR | '2021 National Trade Estimate Report on FOREIGN TRADE BARRIERS'
‘Made in China 2025 seeks to build up Chinese companies in the ten targeted, strategic sectors at the expense of, and to the detriment of, foreign industries and their technologies through a multi-step process over ten years.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
‘2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure’
‘The 2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure reveals we’ve made some incremental progress toward restoring our nation’s infrastructure.’ ‘For the first time in 20 years, our infrastructure is out of the D range. America's Infrastructure Scores a C-.’
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'US to make it easier for diplomats to meet Taiwanese officials'
'Plan to loosen restrictions on contacts with Taipei threatens to provoke China.'
keep reading
April 2, 2021
Biden Starts Infrastructure Bet With U.S. Far Behind China
Even though he didn’t rely solely on the China challenge to justify his new American Jobs Plan; devoted to infrastructure and more, President Biden certainly he had China in his sights. Because as Jonathan Hillman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote“The United States is entering what could be a decades-long competition in which economic and technological power will matter just as much, if not more, than military might.” “Starting this race with decaying infrastructure is like lining up for a marathon with a broken ankle.”
keep reading
April 2, 2021
President Biden Lays Out His ‘American Jobs’ Plan
‘It has become a cliché in U.S. policy circles that the best China policy is to invest in core U.S. capabilities: education, infrastructure, and research and development,’ writes Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University in ‘How to Craft a Durable China Strategy,’ in Foreign Affairs.
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'China’s Dangerous Double Game in North Korea'
‘Beijing’s North Korea policy is primarily motivated by a desire to counter U.S. power in the Asia-Pacific region and increase Chinese influence on the Korean Peninsula.
keep reading
April 2, 2021
'Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden'
‘Japan walks a narrow line as it seeks to maintain close ties with its only military ally, the U.S., while avoiding damage to economic ties with its biggest trade partner, China.
keep reading
April 1, 2021
'Convicted in Hong Kong'
‘Everyone in the former British colony understands the message being sent from Hong Kong’s new masters in Beijing:’
keep reading
April 1, 2021
'U.S. dollar at risk as China races ahead on digital yuan'
‘So why should America care about any of this?’
keep reading
April 1, 2021
PRC Foreign Ministry Response to the USTR's 'National Trade Estimate Report'
‘The accusations and slanders made by the US against China's industrial policies are groundless.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'Consumer boycotts warn of trouble ahead for Western firms in China'
‘Western executives in China cannot shake an unsettling fear that this time is different.’‘Their lucrative Chinese operations are at rising risk of tumbling into the political chasm that has opened between the West and China.’
keep reading
March 31, 2021
'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'
‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.