CHINAMacroReporter

Behind the U.S.-China trade dispute: 'The West's China gamble has failed.'

What's the root cause of the current friction between the U.S. and China? The West's disappointment that China did follow the western model but its own, argues Ed Tse, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company (a member of the China Analyst Network). [Ed's solution] look to the similarities between China and the West, especially in the tech sector, and be alert to China's evolution toward better IPR, market access, and other contentious issues, not just the remaining shortcomings. Below is a video of my discussion with Ed and excerpts from both the interview and his South China Morning Post op-ed, 'Chinese innovation with US characteristics? Maybe China and the West aren’t that far apart, in business at least.' Ed presents insights that differ greatly from the China Echo Chamber in the U.S. Let me know what you think.
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CHINADebate

April 5, 2018
Behind the U.S.-China trade dispute:  'The West's China gamble has failed.'

'The looming trade war between the U.S. and China is front-page news around the world,' writes Ed Tse, founder and CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, known also as the "father of management consulting in China," in the South China Morning Post on March 29.

  • 'On the surface, it looks like U.S. President Donald Trump following up on his campaign rhetoric of “America first” and part of his strategy to treat China as a “strategic competitor."'
  • 'However, it’s possible to trace the roots of the current impasse to a fundamental mistrust between the West, in particular the U.S., and China.'
  • 'The cover story on the March 3, 2018 issue of The Economist, “How the West Got China Wrong”, epitomises that point of view.'

Here's what The Economist had to say:

  • 'After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West welcomed the next big communist country into the global economic order.'
  • 'Western leaders believed that giving China a stake in institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would bind it into the rules-based system set up after the second world war.'
  • 'They hoped that economic integration would encourage China to evolve into a market economy and that, as they grew wealthier, its people would come to yearn for democratic freedoms, rights and the rule of law.''The gamble has failed.'

Ed Tse: 'China has not gone the way the West anticipated.'

  • 'Instead, China has developed its own system. Many people call it the "China development model." And, China has found a way that works.'
  • 'It's a bit unreasonable for people in the West to expect there's only one way to run a country - our way - and that every country will need to follow that way.
  • 'Especially, '...given the major disruptive events over the past decade, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, and sluggish economic growth for well over a decade.
  • 'Instead, 'China continues to be a one-party state while embracing some aspects of the Western-defined market economy and maintaining a strong government role.'
  • Using the China development model, 'Beijing was able to lift China from basic subsistence to a situation where many people now enjoy a reasonable livelihood.'
  • 'Ideology apart, it is difficult to argue that there is only one way to govern, no matter what the context of the country.'

2. 'Chinese entrepreneurs look to the U.S. for inspiration'

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'The spirit of entrepreneurship in China has not been that different from the spirit of entrepreneurship in the U.S.' Ed Tse


'The real point - the most important point - I made in the South China Morning Post op-ed is that politics aside, or ideology aside, actually there's a lot of similarities between the U.S. and China in terms of business, in particular in terms of entrepreneurship,' Ed Tse told me.

'Entrepreneurship returned to China 40 years ago with the reforms started by Deng Xiaoping.'

'Since then, in fact, the whole format and the spirit of entrepreneurship in China has not been that different from the whole form and the spirit of entrepreneurship in the U.S.'

'Chinese entrepreneurs, particular those in the tech sector, have looked towards the U.S. for inspiration since their beginning.'

  • 'I'm talking about the internet companies now, Alibaba, TenCent, Baidu, and many others.'
  • 'When they try to set up the business, when they think about the strategy, when they think about the organization, when they think about the business model, they look to the U.S. - Silicon Valley, the Northwest, the Greater Boston area, and other U.S. tech centers.'

'The mindset, mentality and approach of both the U.S. and Chinese tech companies, as well as their investors, are very similar and many mutual benefits have been built over the years.'

  • 'So, while politically, perhaps, the West may be disappointed that China has not gone its way, from the business standpoint, China and the West – especially innovative centres in the U.S. – have much in common and have adopted very similar philosophies.'
  • 'In fact, the Chinese and the U.S. tech ecosystems are already quite intertwined, and it would be hard to separate the two.'

3. In IPR, market access, and force tech transfer, China is moving in the right direction

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'Premier Li has said that the Chinese government will try not to require or force foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology. Let's see how it goes, but I think Premier Li was sincere.' Ed Tse  

'With or withouta trade war, the Chinese are already moving at least in the right direction,' says Ed Tse.

'The Chinese are actually exercising more stringent protection on the intellectual property rights, not only with respect to the foreigners, but also for the Chinese themselves.'

  • 'It's critical. The Chinese government would like to advance China into a more technologically advanced country. To achieve this, the protection of intellectual property rights has got to be better. The Chinese are not dumb. They're trying to do that.'
  • 'At the same time, it requires some time. The Chinese government is trying to move things in the right direction with the right kind of speed.'

'Also with market access. To just blanketly say the Chinese government has closed the market for foreign participation, including American companies to participate in China market is totally bullshit.'

  • 'There are many sectors in China that are already very open or entirely open for U.S. companies' participation.'
  • 'There are some sectors that are not entirely open, but the direction again is in the right direction.'
  • 'The Chinese government continues to gradually open up industry sectors for foreign participation, and the Chinese government is very committed in doing that.'

'To say, "Well, the Chinese government really forced foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology," again is not always right.'

  • 'There are some situations that actually have been enforced, has been asked for, and of course that's not appropriate.'
  • 'Premier Li has already come out and said that the Chinese government will try not to require or force foreign companies to transfer proprietary technology through this kind of requirement. Let's see how it goes, but I think Premier Li was sincere.'
  • 'By the way, the forced tranfers are not of proprietary technology. Many of these are secondhand or thirdhand technology.'
  • 'The core of technology transferred in the auto industry, for example, is ancient technology.'
  • 'In fact, the foreign companies have really not come forth in any big way to transfer that cutting-edge technology.'
  • [Editor's note: That is also my direct experience in negotiating JVs on behalf of Western clients - the Chinese side demanded the latest technology; I argued - and won - that the Western side would only give older versions.]

'If you look at the direction the China government is taking China, some of these issues are non-issues or quickly becoming non-issues.'

  • 'It's critical for foreign companies, in particular American companies, to really recognize these directions and be willing to participate in the evolution of the China market to capture the  potential that the China market offers them.'

4. 'Focusing on differences will not help us.'

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‍'The Chinese saying “qiu tong cun yi” (求同存异) means “seeking similarities while allowing for differences.”   

'The Chinese saying “qiu tong cun yi” (求同存异) means “seeking similarities while allowing for differences,"' says Ed Tse.

  • 'The West, and the US in particular, should view China in this light.'
  • 'China is on the verge of a sustained, generational rise, and President Xi Jinping has made it clear China would like to play a role in global leadership and governance.'
  • 'By focusing more on the similarities, both global commerce and business will benefit.'

'I would encourage U.S. politicians and U.S. pundits to really look more at the similarities rather than the differences

  • 'Focusing on differences will not help us.'
  • 'Focusing on similarities will.'
March 6, 2018
'E-commerce' is rapidly evolving into 'New Retail.' Jack Ma, Alibaba
Ed Tse, founder of the Gao Feng consultancy and the leading expert on Chinese innovation, introduced me to New Retail in a recent conversation. You will find his explanation of New Retail below, along with a couple of videos showing New Retail in action - as amazing today as Minority Report seemed years ago. Perhaps even more amazing is the China business strategy, the 'Third Way,' that made things like New Retail possible. Ed explains the Third Way in Part Two of our discussion that I will be posting soon. Chinese do do things their own way, as the Third Way again demonstrates. For now, have a look at the future today. And, stay tuned for Part Two for Ed's explanation of the Third Way that made New Retail possible.
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March 1, 2018
'Trump's tariffs just first shot—the big China action is Section 301'
Leland points out that President Trump's really big trade move against China yet to come, that is, Section 301 penalties. If you aren't up to speed on 301, you will be after you read and watch Leland's comments. As Leland says, with Section 301, 'regardless of how Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs end up in the next few days - you're seeing the beginning, not the end, of Trump's aggressiveness on trade.' 'And, I don't think people have prepared themselves yet for the fact that 301 is coming.'
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February 22, 2018
A world of debt mortgages our economic future
Irresponsible borrowing by the US, China and India imperils global growth: What is not natural is China’s bad track record on debt: according to the Bank of International Settlements, every measure of debt — consumer, government and corporate — has risen as a share of GDP for the past decade. China went from a low-leverage country in 2007 to having a worse debt position than the US in 2017, despite the fact that the US itself has borrowed heavily.
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February 16, 2018
China's Crisis of Success
Here are five key points, each corresponding to a section below. "The Rise of China: How Economic Reform Is Creating a New Superpower" by Bill Overholt, published in 1993, was called 'nonsense' and 'too optimistic.' How did that work out for the reviewers? Now, almost three decades after "The Rise of China", Bill believes that China's future has become 'much more uncertain.'
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February 12, 2018
2017 China Property Report
One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.
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February 9, 2018
The extraordinary power of China's corporate 'mega ecosystems'
Besides Alibaba and Tencent, companies like Ping An Insurance Group, Baidu and JD.com are building out mega ecosystems with incredible speed and intensity. Even some traditional manufacturers are moving in this direction. Zhejiang Geely Holding Group has gone from producing entry-level cars to selling premium models with the help of foreign acquisitions and has been the first Chinese carmaker to move into on-demand mobility services. It has also been experimenting with connected intelligent vehicles, shared ownership programs and flying cars, together assembling a sprawling transportation services ecosystem.
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February 8, 2018
China's trade surplus up, RMB weaker
[China markets update with TRACK's Bob Savage ] 'The RMB did not like the trade data at all, and it weakened immediately - over 1% today.' 'Overnight, the world has moved a little bit away from its U.S.-centric obsession about equity volatility in the United States and around the world to what's going on in China,' says Bob Savage, CEO of TRACK and member of the soon-to-be-launched China Analyst Network.
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February 7, 2018
What we import from China
But he can’t keep saying China is ripping us off and he’s going to stop it unless the US targets the biggest imports. The trade deficit with China is bigger than with the next eight countries combined. NAFTA? The trade deficit in cell phones and computers alone with China is bigger than the trade deficits for all goods with Mexico and Canada combined.
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February 3, 2018
China's RMB oil futures exchange—the 'story of the year'!
‍The Shanghai International Energy Exchange:blowing up more than oil : There's a lot to follow in China. And, I had missed reports about the opening of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange or INE, likely this quarter. But, during my interview with Bob Savage, the well-respected analyst of global markets and CEO of TRACK, he told me the INE could be the 'story of the year.' That's a big - and interesting - claim about something that seems like one more ho-hum Chinese entity. Bob explained that the INE will create the an RMB-denominated oil futures contract. The first such contract in a petrodollar world, where China is largest crude oil importer. If RMB oil contracts - even just for trade with China - catch on, then the whole global oil trading regime will change. And, given the massive size of the global oil trade, a shift from dollars to RMBs will both erode the dollar as a reserve currency, and push the RMB closer its goal of becoming a full reserve currency.
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January 10, 2018
'China goes private'—from financial reform to the Belt Road Initiative
[Malcolm Riddell's conversation with Harvard's Tony Saich] The State & Party's technical prowess is somewhat limited.
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January 10, 2018
What Hiring Activity Says About Firm Valuations in China
How does an obscure factor like hiring practices impact firm valuation? That was the question posed by Deutsche Bank’s quant strategy group in a 2015 whitepaper titled, “Macro and Micro Jobenomics.” The report concluded that online job postings could be used to predict U.S. macroeconomic statistics and equity market returns. This piqued my interest – I wondered whether a similar process could be used for valuing A-share companies in China.
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December 31, 2017
December 2017: Is China Actually Deleveraging? Yes and No.
China Deleveraging Insider tracks the status of China’s financial de-risking initiatives and the state of deleveraging.The most recent data from the PBoC and the CBRC show that bank asset growth hit a fresh all-time low in October. That means China is actually deleveraging – a little. It’s slow and slight, and done with a bit of trickery, but the debt load has shrunk in comparison to the size of the economy.
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December 18, 2017
What are the policy implications for China's economy from the 19th Party Congress?'
Pieter Bottelier—top China economist, former World Bank head in China, and stalwart CHINADebate expert—set the theme today: the crucial albeit unsung importance of elite technocrats in guiding China's Economic Miracle.
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November 27, 2017
Is China's Economic Power a Paper Tiger?
The People’s Republic of China has surely seen faster GDP growth than the United States for most of the past forty years. It's the value of that growth that's questionable. : The Chinese economy is strange in many ways. Not only is it a hybrid between private capital and state control, but very few people directly invest in the mainland — and yet everybody is interested in how the second largest economy in the world is going to develop. That’s because Chinese demand determines the prices of world commodities, and the operations of multinational companies in China impact earnings. When the yuan falls, markets across the world get jittery. China watchers accept the fact that official Chinese data is severely flawed, and often simply fabricated, yet they still use it to analyze the Chinese economy and markets because there are few alternatives. One alternative, however, is the China Beige Book International (CBB), a research service that interviews thousands of companies and hundreds of bankers on the ground in China each quarter. They collect data and perform in-depth interviews with Chinese executives.
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November 22, 2017
Will Chinese Commodities Derail The Global Reflation Trade?
[Leland Miller and Derek Scissors on why investor excitement over Chinese capacity cuts this winter is oversold, and the serious implications for the global reflation trade.] For over a year, commodities bulls have feasted on China. In the aftermath of the recent Communist Party Congress, many investors are now drooling over the prospect the boom will continue, based on Beijing’s promises to supercharge its campaigns against overcapacity and pollution this winter. If such pledges are fulfilled, the thinking goes, substantial chunks of steel, aluminum, and other refining capacity will be taken offline, rebalancing markets and providing rocket fuel to already frothy prices. 2018 could prove to be an even more amped-up version of 2017.
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November 8, 2017
Novel Data on China's Auto Loans - An Inefficient Market
The continued growth of China’s auto sales has relied increasingly on consumer credit, according to the WSJ; but, granular data is hard to come by. So, we created a process to collect, clean, and structure data from online auto loan offerings. Our findings imply that the auto loan market, like many credit markets in China, runs on two parallel tracks, and is woefully inefficient.
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October 19, 2017
'Inside China’s quest to become the global leader in AI'
'The RMB did not like the trade data at all, and it weakened immediately - over 1% today.' 'Overnight, the world has moved a little bit away from its U.S.-centric obsession about equity volatility in the United States and around the world to what's going on in China,' says Bob Savage, CEO of TRACK and member of the soon-to-be-launched China Analyst Network.
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October 11, 2017
Novel Data on China's Mortgage Loans
China’s banks are directed by the state, without irony, to “vigorously promote reasonable home ownership.” Their most recent annual reports repeatedly bury in the notes this line, or some variant of it, as an explanation for the explosion of mortgage lending over the previous 12 months. Granular mortgage data however, is hard to come by – so we created a process to collect, clean, and interpret that information.
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September 12, 2017
China’s property market risks are rising, says data expert
Price trends in China’s housing market are unsustainable, according to Real Estate Foresight chief executive Robert Ciemniak who worries that excessive leverage among homeowners could lead to a crisis. Real Estate Foresight founder and chief executive Robert Ciemniak has made it his business to gather and interpret real time data on China’s residential property market. He gives his thoughts on what’s to come in China’s housing market.
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September 1, 2017
The father of business consulting in China knows why eBay failed there
In the early 1990s, when China was still struggling to shrug off the straightjacket of its planned economy, the man appointed to lead the first business consulting firm allowed in the nation was immediately confronted with the scope of the challenge ahead.
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August 30, 2017
Is china prematurely declaring victory in its reforms?
At the heart of China's economic take-off during the last four decades is a fragile equilibrium between economic reforms and one­ party rule. The communist party has demonstrated pragmatism and adaptability - but just at a time when China seeks to fully enter the knowledge economy and participate in global markets, it has put the brake on further reforms.
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August 29, 2017
China's unsolved liquidity risk
The question we should ask ourselves is, how many of China’s corporate borrowers are paying off existing debt with new debt?
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August 22, 2017
Predicting Chinese stock returns
[The Largest Single—Factor Study of China’s Stock Markets] Outside observers paint China’s stock markets as a casino, where picking stocks requires as much skill as roulette, and investors avoid the country in their portfolio allocations. Patterns exist, however, if you know where to look.
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August 2, 2017
Leland Miller on Pressing China Issues
Leland Miller, the founder of China Beige Book, spoke with The Epoch Times about which investors and companies are interested in China, the latest developments in the currency, U.S.-China relations, overcapacity problems, and the One Belt One Road Initiative. : The Chinese economy is strange in many ways. Not only is it a hybrid between private capital and state control, but very few people directly invest in the mainland — and yet everybody is interested in how the second largest economy in the world is going to develop. That’s because Chinese demand determines the prices of world commodities, and the operations of multinational companies in China impact earnings. When the yuan falls, markets across the world get jittery. China watchers accept the fact that official Chinese data is severely flawed, and often simply fabricated, yet they still use it to analyze the Chinese economy and markets because there are few alternatives. One alternative, however, is the China Beige Book International (CBB), a research service that interviews thousands of companies and hundreds of bankers on the ground in China each quarter. They collect data and perform in-depth interviews with Chinese executives.
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July 19, 2017
China Cause America's Trade Problems?
[Malcolm Riddell's conversation with Yukon Huang] 'America's trade problems are not the consequence of China's policies.'
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July 19, 2017
Siri: 'Can The iPhone Prove President Trump's Wrong About U.S.-China Trade?'
[Malcolm Riddell's conversation with Yukon Huang] 'America's trade problems are not the consequence of China's policies.' 'How much of that $650 iPhone - which adds to China's trade surplus with the U.S. - actually originates and stays in China? — Only $25.'
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July 2, 2017
China Doesn’t Have A Real Estate Bubble.
Prices spike in a city. The government puts the screws on the market, and prices go down. Investment then switches to a city with lax policies. Housing prices spike; regulations tighten; prices go down. Investors move on. And so on, and so on.
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June 28, 2017
Will 'One Belt, One Road' Tank China's Economy?
'My fear is that Xi will see this initiative as an alternative to economic reform.'— Pieter Bottelier : But, the biggest threat in the near term is that Xi Jinping will see OBOR as an alternative to completing the economic reforms promised - but not delivered - in 2013's Third Plenum.
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June 21, 2017
China's stock markets—are there any patterns?
'I find evidence for dramatic size and momentum effects; that is, small stocks and recent winners are the top performers in China’s stock market. Additionally, I find that high-beta stocks modestly underperform low-beta stocks.'
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June 7, 2017
China's higher rates don't matter, yet
In fact, high yields still haven’t filtered down to borrowers. Using industrial enterprise economic indicators data, I estimated the actual interest rate paid by Chinese borrowers. Over the past six months – as corporate bond yields, SHIBOR, and WMP yields all rose dramatically – the actual interest paid by China’s industrial enterprises fell to an all-time low.
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May 29, 2017
Why A Trump–Kim Jeong Eun Summit Could Work
[Malcolm Riddell's conversation with Bill Overholt] 'If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him [Kim Jong-un], I would absolutely. I would be honored to do it.' — President Trump — May 2017:'What President Trump has done is to signal we are willing to move away from this formula that the North Koreans have to give up everything in their nuclear program before negotiations - only then we'll talk with them. I admire our U.S. negotiators, but that formula is simply absurd.'
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May 17, 2017
A new framework for china's debt problem
In fact, high yields still haven’t filtered down to borrowers. Using industrial enterprise economic indicators data, I estimated the actual interest rate paid by Chinese borrowers. Over the past six months – as corporate bond yields, SHIBOR, and WMP yields all rose dramatically – the actual interest paid by China’s industrial enterprises fell to an all-time low.
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May 3, 2017
An inflection point in china's systemic risk
Additionally, given the incentives of regulated institutions everywhere, it is likely that risks have simply begun to migrate to new and more opaque parts of the balance sheet. As China watchers, we should prepare for yet another game of financial risk whack-a-mole.
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April 26, 2017
Clearing up a few misconceptions on China's capital flight
Last year, I debunked a popular measure of trade misinvoicing as the culprit for China’s capital outflows. Today, let’s scrutinize two other misconceptions bouncing around the China commentator echo chamber.
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