CHINAMacroReporter

'An Unsentimental China Policy'

'Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2019, “The era of engagement with China has come to an unceremonious close.”Yet it is worth remembering what engaging China was all about.’ For most of the past half century, efforts to improve ties with the country were not about transforming it. Judged by its own standards, U.S. engagement with China succeeded. It was only after the Cold War that a desire to change China became a prominent objective of U.S. policy.’
by

|

Foreign Affairs

February 18, 2021
'An Unsentimental China Policy'
BIG IDEA | National Security Advisor 'Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2019, “The era of engagement with China has come to an unceremonious close.” '
'Yet it is worth remembering what engaging China was all about. For most of the past half century, efforts to improve ties with the country were not about transforming it.  
‘Starting with Nixon, the motives were decidedly unsentimental:’
  • to balance against the Soviet Union,
  • to convince China to stop exporting revolution, and
  • to help lift millions of Chinese people out of poverty.’
'Judged by its own standards, U.S. engagement with China succeeded.'
'It was only after the Cold War that a desire to change China became a prominent objective of U.S. policy.’
BIG IDEA | ‘The Biden administration should heed the central lesson of five decades of U.S. policy toward China: it works best when focusing realistically on geopolitical objectives essential to protect American interests, and worst when attempting to engage in political engineering to promote American values.’

‘As U.S. President Joe Biden’s senior Asia adviser, Kurt Campbell, and the president’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2019, “The era of engagement with China has come to an unceremonious close.” ’

  • ‘Yet it is worth remembering what engaging China was all about.’

‘For most of the past half century, efforts to improve ties with the country were not about transforming it.’

  • ‘Starting with Nixon, the motives were decidedly unsentimental:’
  • to balance against the Soviet Union,’
  • to convince China to stop exporting revolution, and’
  • to help lift millions of people out of poverty.’
  • ‘Judged by its own standards, U.S. engagement with China succeeded.’

‘It was only after the Cold War that a desire to change China became a prominent objective of U.S. policy.’

‘Today, as Biden and his team develop a new strategy to meet the defining international challenge of this generation, many are urging them to give up on engagement altogether.’

  • ‘That would be a mistake.’

Instead, the administration should heed the central lesson of five decades of U.S. policy toward China:’

  • ‘it works best when focusing realistically on geopolitical objectives essential to protect American interests, and worst when attempting to engage in political engineering to promote American values.’

‘Looking at this record of U.S. presidents’ dealings with China, the Biden administration should find four lessons instructive.’

  1. ‘First, when pursuing geopolitical objectives, engagement has succeeded more often than failed.’
  2. ‘Second, those who advocate regime change in China to promote democracy are as misguided as those who pushed wars in the Middle East in pursuit of the same objective.’
  3. ‘Third, policies of openness and integration have been engines of economic growth for the world, and they will remain essential for a successful future.’
  4. ‘Finally, as happens often in history, success in addressing the grand challenge of one generation creates a new, more formidable challenge for those who follow.’
  5. ‘Engagement with China allowed the United States to prevail in the cardinal struggle of the twentieth century: the Cold War with the Soviet Union.’
  6. ‘It also left Washington in a long-term rivalry with what the Singaporean statesman Lee Kuan Yew rightly called “the biggest player in the history of the world.” ’

My Take

'Engagement failed' is the mantra of those who promote a policy of the U.S. confronting China at every turn. This essay is a helpful corrective to demonstrate that engagement - on its own terms - didn't fail.

A better policy prescription would come from a study of President Reagan's management of relations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War: Confront & Engage.

And if possible throw in a trusting relationship between the leaders of the two countries.

More

CHINAMacroReporter

July 10, 2022
Building Biden's 'Great Wall' Around China
Whether you view it as an aggressive adversary or a nation asserting itself in ways commensurate with its rising status, China is creating risks – some subtle, some obvious - that, along with reactions of the U.S. and its allies, have to be factored, into every related business, investment, and policy strategy.
keep reading
July 1, 2022
A Debt Crisis of its Own Making
Ever since Xi Jinping announced ‘One Belt, One Road’ in 2013, I watched it expand China’s economic and geopolitical influence and lay the foundation for projecting its military power – and become by many accounts an exploiter of the developing world itself.
keep reading
June 22, 2022
No. Ukraine Won't Change Xi's Plans - or Timetable - for Taiwan
Ukraine won't speed up or delay Mr. Xi's timetable. (But it may cause him to work harder to strengthen China's military and insulate its economy from external pressure.)
keep reading
March 9, 2017
So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story
[CHINADebate Presentation] One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.—Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?
keep reading
February 27, 2017
Is The U.S. Ceding Global Leadership To China?
'China isn't positioned to replace the U.S. as a global leader anytime soon.'—Hard on President Trump's 'American First' inaugural address, Xi Jinping gave a rousing paean to globalism at the World Economic Forum. And, immediately the hot question became: 'Is the U.S. ceding global leadership to China?' Yes and no, says Bill Overholt of the Harvard Asia Center. Yes, the U.S. is ceding global leadership. No, China won’t replace the U.S. What will replace the U.S. is ‘G-Zero’, a world with no single global leader. Not China, not the U.S. So, can his critics lay this outcome at President Trump’s feet?
keep reading
February 15, 2017
C-to-C Internet Commerce- From Taobao Shops to Taobao Villages
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
How SOEs & Local Governments Create Overcapacity
One is some of the local government-owned SOEs are the sources for overcapacity. The reason is because the local government also wants to ensure there's some degree of employment locally, and perhaps some source of taxation. The Chinese government is now going to need to start the so-called supply-side economics to try to consolidate overcapacity in a number of sectors. It's going to impinge on the interests of many of these local SOEs as well as the local governments who own them.
keep reading
February 15, 2017
Why SOE Reform is So Tough
'...SOEs need to reform, because on one hand, many of them have achieved a lot for China. On the other hand, they've actually created quite a lot of harm, in particular in the areas of overcapacity but also in the areas of corruption we've talked about.'
keep reading
February 2, 2017
AmCham China Chairmen's View From China in D.C. 2017
[AmCham China & CHINADebate U.S.—China Trade/Business Series 2017] Terrific insights from leaders on the ground in China. While in D.C. the Chairmen joined us in a panel discussion and individual interviews about U.S. business in China, U.S.-China relations, trade, and much more. We present their views in a 13 part series. Sheryl WuDunn, business executive, lecturer, best-selling author, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize moderated.
keep reading
February 1, 2017
'Chinese Politics In The Xi Jinping Era'
[Malcolm Riddell Interviewed Cheng Li] 'If you ask any taxi driver in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, he or she will tell you – with accuracy – which leader belongs to which faction. : 'China is a one–party state, but that does not necessarily mean Chinese leadership is a monolithic group with leaders who have the same ideas, same background, same world views, same politics. No, they're divided.'
keep reading
December 7, 2016
First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China
The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
keep reading
October 18, 2016
How Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent are Changing the Rules of Business
[An Interview of Ed Tse, the author of 'China's Disruptors: Alibaba, Xiaomi, & Tencent... how innovative 'Disruptor' companies are restructuring China's economy.' ] The real force in Chinese economy is increasingly private companies, not SOEs. / Leading private Chinese companies are innovative and ambitious
keep reading
July 14, 2016
How 'Brexit' Will Impact China's Economy
David Dollar gives you fresh insights to better incorporate Brexit's impact into your analyses of China and global economies & markets, including: 1. Why, after the Brexit vote, did the Shanghai Stock Market fall only 1%? 2. How will Brexit affect the value of the RMB and China's currency policy? 3. How will Brexit impact trade with the EU, China’s largest trading partner? 4. Why, in the larger geopolitical perspective, could China be the big winner from Brexit?
keep reading
July 2, 2016
China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?
100s of Cities Bubble Up & Down As Policy Makers Press the Levers China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities. Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.