CHINAMacroReporter

Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
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CHINARoundtable

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

‍'The air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’

‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’‍

Tom Orlik


Join us at the CHINARoundtable where Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, will discuss:‍

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]‍

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

In 2020, our guest speaker, Tom Orlik, published China: The Bubble That Never Pops to great acclaim.

  • Then just two years later so much had changed that he published an update.

As he explains in his recent Bloomberg essay ‘The China Bubble Is Losing Air But Won’t Burst’:

  • ‘If China is in for a hard landing, the consequences would be cataclysmic for the financial system and economy; for the ruling Communist Party; for global markets.’

‘Amid the host of potential losers, spare a thought for the author who—in 2020—published a book with the provocative title China: The Bubble That Never Pops.’

  • ‘I made the case that the country’s economic and financial system is more resilient, and its policymakers more ingenious, than critics in Washington and on Wall Street would have you believe.’

‘In the two years since, that thesis has undergone an extreme stress test.’

  • ‘Some might say it’s failed.’

‘In the second edition of my book, I take a different view.’

  • Yes, the air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’
  • ‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom will give us his latest thinking on the Chinese economy at the upcoming CHINARoundtable.

Tom Orlik is Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics.

  • He was formerly the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
  • Before turning to journalism, he worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund.
  • Tom earned a Master of Public Policy degree from the Harvard Kennedy School.
  • Besides China: The Bubble That Never Pops, he is also the author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities.
  • And Tom lived in China for 10 years.

Look forward to hearing your comments and your questions for Tom on December 1.

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]‍

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom
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Bachelors, Mother-in-Laws, & China's Economy
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Q&A 4 | Is China Exporting Inflation?
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Q&A 2 | Will the Gender Imbalance Keep Housing Prices Firm in the Medium Term?
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Q&A 3 | Property 2022: Stabilization or Growth?
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Shang-jin Wei Presentation-3 | Analyzing the Gender Imbalance Data
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Shang-jin Wei Presentation-2 | Gender Imbalance as a Driver of Housing Prices
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Q&A 5 | Will Xi Continue to Favor the State Over the Private Sector?
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Q&A 7 | Why Did Beijing Ban Online Tutoring?
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Sometimes You Just Have to Roll the Dice
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Watch What Beijing Says - and Does
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'Biden Has a Summit With Xi, but No Strategy for China'
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'America's China Plan: A Proposal' by Clyde Prestowitz
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October 27, 2021

An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.
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Just How Contagious is Evergrande?
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October 7, 2021

'This Time Feels Different'
Just when we thought we were getting used to Xi Jinping’s tech reforms and social-engineering regulations, the Evergrande crisis heats up.
September 27, 2021

AUKUS: A New World Order?
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Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.
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The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?
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‘Global investors shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
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August 5, 2021

'Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target'
‘While China’s policy moves can feel ad hoc particularly to foreign investors, the changes are quite targeted on certain sectors.’
August 5, 2021

Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You
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August 5, 2021

'China Wants Manufacturing—Not the Internet—to Lead the Economy'
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August 5, 2021

'Stock Market: China Doesn’t Care How Much Money Investors Lose'

‘Does Beijing not care how much money foreign investors have lost? Does the government really want to close China Inc.’s access to the deep pool of global capital? The short answer is, no, the government doesn’t care.
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'Xi's Four Pillars of Regulation'
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August 1, 2021

China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders, and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook,’ writes Reuters’ Tom Westbrook.
August 1, 2021

'Why China Is Cracking Down on Its Technology Giants'
‘Why, you may ask, is China crushing some of its most innovative unicorns? We’re in a new era led by President Xi Jinping, and politics are in command.’
August 1, 2021

'The most significant philosophical shift since Deng'
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook. According to some analysts, it is the most significant philosophical shift since former leader Deng Xiaoping set development as the ultimate priority 40 years ago.’
August 1, 2021

How China's Middle-Class China is Transforming China and the World
‘Among the many forces shaping China's domestic transformation and its role on the world stage, none may prove more significant than the rapid emergence and explosive growth of the Chinese middle-class.’
July 25, 2021

Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)
‘The prospectus has a diagram, above, of the corporate structure, which looks almost normal. But everything below the double arrow — the actual ride-hailing business, etc. — is slightly askew.’
July 22, 2021

Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'
‘ “Variable interest entities”(VIEs): The problem with this is that it sort of sounds like you’re kidding. But this is a standard method for mainland Chinese internet companies to go public, and the market has come to accept it.’
July 22, 2021

'Tell me lies, tell me sweet little VIEs'
July 22, 2021

Part 3 | Revising the Rules
‘The Chinese government could declare “all these VIE contracts are actually a disguised form of foreign ownership, which is not allowed by the rules, so they are all void and your Didi and Alibaba shares are worthless.” ’
July 22, 2021

China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
July 22, 2021

'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
July 22, 2021

Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
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July 18, 2021

'I will aim for Mao's Status.'
‘There on the gate was Xi Jinping, Chinese president and party general secretary, in a gray Mao suit. Just below his feet was the portrait of Mao Zedong, also dressed in a gray Mao suit.’
July 18, 2021

'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'
“In the face of Beijing’s decisions over the past year that have stifled the democratic aspirations of people in Hong Kong, we are taking action,” said Antony Blinken, US secretary of state. “Today we send a clear message that the US resolutely stands with Hong Kongers.”
July 18, 2021

'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'
‘The pretense of Chinese and Hong Kong authorities is that their crackdown on the rule of law and dissent will have no effect on Hong Kong’s viability as an international center for trade and finance.’
July 18, 2021

'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'
‘China plans to exempt companies going public in Hong Kong from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, removing one hurdle for businesses that list in the Asian financial hub instead of the U.S.’
July 18, 2021

Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling
‘The United States’ inability to make China regret—much less reverse—its transgressions in Hong Kong suggests that financial separation, sanctions, and economic barriers are less reliable tools than many in Washington believe.’
July 18, 2021

Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'
‘Biden’s emerging China strategy, while still protean, sounds of a kind with Mr Doshi’s prescription for “blunting and building”.’
July 15, 2021

The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents
President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
July 15, 2021

Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
July 15, 2021

'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
July 15, 2021

Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again
Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
July 8, 2021

The Chinese Point of View
Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
July 4, 2021

'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'
‘China has managed to sustain four decades of economic growth despite levels of corruption that even Xi has described as “grave” and “shocking.” Why does it seem to have bucked the trend?’
July 4, 2021

'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'
‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’
July 4, 2021

Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading
As the Chinese Communist Party begins its second century, it’s useful to identify enduring patterns that might aid us in understanding China today and the directions it might be heading.
July 1, 2021

From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich
‘In our discussions, you've identified five themes that have been more or less consistent throughout the history of the party but have oscillated between different points on a continuum:’
July 1, 2021

'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100
‘At so many points during its century-long existence, the CCP appeared to be in its death throes, whether as a result of external attack or self-inflicted internal strife.’
July 1, 2021

European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'
A mere 9% of European companies are considering moving any current or planned investment out of China, the lowest level on record. Instead, companies are strengthening their positions in JVs, onshoring supply chains and increasing spending to secure market share. The ambition not only to stay but also to expand their China footprint is more than justcapital flooding in due to optimism about growth. Companies are taking action to secure their operations in China and mitigate exposure to geopolitical trends in order to have a better chance of navigating a future that looks to be fraught with risk, at least in the near- to medium-term.
June 27, 2021

'How China & America Should Compete'
‘China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.’
June 27, 2021

'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'
Jimmy Lai’s tabloid, the Apple Daily, with its peculiar blend of scandal, gossip, and serious political reporting, was Hong Kong’s indispensable voice of free speech. Now that voice has been silenced, and Lai is in prison with others who tried to protect the right of Hong Kong’s citizens to speak and write freely, to be ruled by law, and to vote for their own autonomous government. Their politics are diverse Yet they stand together. When freedom is under siege, people cannot afford the narcissism of small differences that is tearing apart liberal politics in countries where people think democracy can be taken for granted.
June 27, 2021

'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'
‘Instead of leaving the market, European companies are exploring ways to separate their China operations from their global ones.’ ‘Following the Covid-19 outbreak, European companies in China spent the first few months of 2020 solemnly appraising their investment strategies.’
June 27, 2021

'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'
‘Freedom of the press is a good thing. The West's freedom of speech must be consistent with national interests and public security.’
June 24, 2021

Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'
“Bitcoin alone consumes as much electricity as a medium-sized European country.”
June 24, 2021

'China steps up crackdown on bitcoin mining industry'
‘China’s latest intervention places further pressure on what was once one of the world’s most vibrant markets for trading and mining digital currencies.’ ‘It comes at a time when many governments are scrutinising the industry’s effect on the environment and determining the types of financial oversight that should be applied to cryptocurrencies.’
June 24, 2021

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